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Impacts on Tourism in the Karoo

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Impacts on Tourism in the Karoo CHAPTER 9: IMPACTS ON TOURISM IN THE KAROO Second Order Draft for Stakeholder Comment Integrating Author: Daan Toerien Contributing Authors: Gerrie du Rand, Caroline Gelderblom, Melville Saayman Peer Reviewers: Ernie Heath, Char-Lee McLennan, Brent Moyle, Peter Myles CONTENTS CHAPTER 9: IMPACTS ON TOURISM IN THE KAROO 9-1 9.1 Introduction and scope 9-1 9.1.1 The historic importance of tourism in the Karoo 9-2 9.1.2 The present importance of tourism in the Karoo 9-3 9.1.3 Why do tourists visit the Karoo?… Its tourism assets 9-6 9.1.4 Food tourism and the Karoo 9-8 9.1.5 The drivers of tourism in the Karoo 9-9 9.1.6 Tourism impacts recorded elsewhere about exploration for and production of shale gas and oil 9-11 9.2 Risk Assessment and Sensitivities 9-13 9.2.1 Risk assessment 9-13 9.2.2 Sensitivity of the tourism sector to negative impacts 9-22 9.3 Mitigation of Impacts 9-26 9.4 Lack of Information 9-29 9.5 Ackowledgements 9-30 9.6 References 9-30 9.7 ADDENDUM A9: Estimates of employment, value addition and the potential impact of shale gas exploration and production on the tourism sector of the assessment area. 9-37 9.8 ADDENDUM B9: Tourism sensitivity 9-48 Page 9-1 Tables Table 9.1: The losses in tourism enterprises, employment and value addition that may be associated with negative impacts by gas exploration and production on the tourism sector in the assessment area. 9-15 Table 9.2: Risk analysis for different tourism sectors from negative impacts of gas exploration and production and for different scenarios and with or without mitigation. 9-17 Table 9.3: Assessment of the sensitivity to negative impacts by shale gas exploration and production on the tourism sector of towns in the assessment area. 9-24 Figures Figure 9.2: The tourism sector in relation to the population sizes of study area towns, ordered from left to right according to their 2011 population sizes 9-3 Figure 9.1: The enterprises of the tourism sector (in red) in relation to other business sectors in the study area. 9-3 Figure 9.3: Total and tourism enterprises in or close to the study area towns. 9-5 Figure 9.4: The contributions of accommodation and ‘food and drink’ enterprises to the enterprise profiles of two clusters of study area towns – cluster 1 (red) and cluster 2 (blue). 9-5 Figure 9.5: The growth (%) in the number of tourism (blue) and total (red) enterprises of the study area towns over 2006/08 to 2015/16. 9-6 Figure 9.6: The broad correspondence between town size and the number of tourism enterprises in 2015/16 in the study area. 9-10 Figure 9.7: Leading and lagging towns in terms of the strength of their tourism sectors (expressed as % of total enterprises). The norm is the average strength of the tourist sector (% of all enterprises) for the whole of the assessment area 9-14 Figure 9.8: Leading (green bars) and lagging (red bars) towns in the assessment area in terms of number of tourism enterprises. Regional average is total number of tourism enterprises in the assessment area divided by the number of towns. 9-22 Figure 9.9: Map of the sensitivities to negative impacts of shale gas exploration and production on protected areas, major roads and the tourism sectors of towns of and the access routes from the south to the assessment area. 9-25 Page 9-2 1 Executive Summary 2 Experience indicates that mining and tourism invariably end up in conflict with each other. This is a 3 serious concern for the assessment area as the tourism business sector currently has the most 4 enterprises of all business sectors and a loss of 20% of the tourism enterprises in the assessment area 5 could result in a loss of more than 2600 employment opportunities and some R500 million in 6 economic value addition. A higher percentage of these jobs are likely to be associated with semi- 7 skilled local people and women are particularly well represented in the tourism sector. The relative 8 importance of this sector is predicted to increase as it is also the fastest growing sector - in most towns 9 and their surrounding areas the number of tourism enterprises is increasing much faster than total 10 enterprise growth. 11 12 Tourism in the assessment area has diversified in recent years and provides many different tourism 13 offerings. As a consequence growth has occurred in towns as well as rural areas where agritourism 14 has been replacing the declining role of traditional farming in the economy. There are three groups of 15 tourists visiting the assessment area: 1. Those seeking unique Karoo experiences (‘getting away from 16 it all’, adventures, heritage sites, Karoo food, festivals, etc.), 2. Those travelling through, and 3. 17 Business travellers and people visiting friends and family in towns. 18 19 Tourism is not evenly spread across the assessment area and based on their enterprise profiles two 20 groups of towns have been distinguished: a cluster that has an average lower than 16% of enterprises 21 in the tourism sector and a cluster that has an average of more than 37% of enterprises in the tourism 22 sector. 23 24 Due to the growing rural dispersion of tourism facilities and the dispersed nature of shale gas 25 production, the whole of the assessment area is considered to have a medium sensitivity to potential 26 negative impacts of gas production. Towns vary in their sensitivity to potential negative impacts on 27 the tourism sector. Tourism specialist towns including Nieu-Bethesda, Prince Albert, Graaff-Reinet, 28 Sutherland and Colesberg are highly sensitive to disturbance, the next grouping which includes 29 Cradock and Beaufort West have a have a high sensitivity and the rest are regarded as having a 30 medium sensitivity. 31 32 Negative impacts on tourism of shale gas exploration and production are expected from: noise and 33 visual disturbances; traffic densification and road degradation (and associated changes to the road 34 surface from dirt to tar might which might impact the remote character important for some tourists); 35 increased pressure on existing accommodation thereby crowding out of tourists, potential water 36 pollution, earthquakes and loss of tourism enterprises. These impacts could seriously degrade the Page 9-3 1 Karoo’s growing tourism brand and tourism’s role in local economies, especially in the towns with 2 high sensitivities. A challenge is to find ways and means whereby the impacts of gas exploration and 3 production on tourism could be mitigated. This approach has been applied in the Waterberg Biosphere 4 Reserve, Limpopo and in regions in Queensland, Australia. Mitigation of negative impacts, which will 5 require cooperation between the mining and tourism industries, is possible by: 1. using exclusion 6 zones to reduce visual and noise impacts, 2. declaration of an access route to the assessment area (e.g. 7 the N9) as a tourist route and barring shale gas traffic from it, 3. strict control of and sanctions with 8 regard to water pollution, and 4. the possible establishment of an officially empowered Tourism 9 Agency to manage and support tourism across different provincial borders and eventually funded by a 10 levy on gas producers. 11 12 It should be noted that this was a desktop assessment which used the best available data but that there 13 is currently a lack of information about many important aspects of the tourism sector in the 14 assessment area (and Karoo), including a more detailed picture of the dispersed tourism enterprises of 15 the Karoo, their tourist offerings and vulnerability to impacts which should be addressed by adequate 16 baseline studies. Page 9-4 1 CHAPTER 9: IMPACTS ON TOURISM IN THE KAROO 2 9.1 Introduction and scope 3 Mining and tourism are important sectors of the South African and Australian economies, yet 4 invariably they end up in conflict (De Klerk & Heath, 2015; McLennan et al., 2015). Tourism in the 5 Karoo and shale gas development might, therefore, be irreconcilable (Ingle & Atkinson, 2015). This 6 chapter analyses the potential impacts of shale gas exploration and production, if implemented, on 7 tourism in the assessment area (see Figure 1.x in chapter 1). A lack of standard tourism information 8 (such as bed nights sold and tourist spend) in the assessment 9 area necessitated the use of quantified empirical information What is tourism? 10 about tourism enterprises in the assessment area to examine 11 the potential impacts. Four different scenarios: no exploration, Tourism comprises the activities of persons traveling to and staying in 12 exploration only, small-scale production of shale gas and places outside their usual environment 13 large-scale production of shale gas (see chapter 1) are for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other 14 considered. Potential mitigation of negative impacts is also purposes (Go2HR, undated) 15 considered. 16 Tourism is a large world-wide industry and its international receipts in 2014 17 The management of tourism in South Africa is complex. The were worth US$1.245 trillion (United 18 Department of Tourism guided by the Tourism Act of 2014 World Tourism Organization, 2015). 19 (Government Gazette, 2014) is primarily responsible. The Act Even in arid and semi-arid areas it has become an important economic driver, 20 addresses issues such as the promotion of quality tourism e.g. in Egypt, Dubai, Oman and Israel 21 products and services and enhancing cooperation and desert tourism is a growing industry (Hobbs and Tsunemi, 2007; Ryan and 22 coordination between all stakeholders.
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