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The Origins of a War of Secession: a Comparison of Namibia and Botswana

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The Origins of a War of Secession: a Comparison of Namibia and Botswana University of Tennessee, Knoxville TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange Doctoral Dissertations Graduate School 8-2007 The Origins of a War of Secession: A Comparison of Namibia and Botswana Eric D. Smith University of Tennessee - Knoxville Follow this and additional works at: https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss Part of the Comparative Politics Commons Recommended Citation Smith, Eric D., "The Origins of a War of Secession: A Comparison of Namibia and Botswana. " PhD diss., University of Tennessee, 2007. https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss/321 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. It has been accepted for inclusion in Doctoral Dissertations by an authorized administrator of TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. For more information, please contact [email protected]. To the Graduate Council: I am submitting herewith a dissertation written by Eric D. Smith entitled "The Origins of a War of Secession: A Comparison of Namibia and Botswana." I have examined the final electronic copy of this dissertation for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the equirr ements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, with a major in Political Science. Yang Zhong, Major Professor We have read this dissertation and recommend its acceptance: Robert Gorman, Anthony Nownes, Michael McKinney Accepted for the Council: Carolyn R. Hodges Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School (Original signatures are on file with official studentecor r ds.) To the Graduate Council: I am submitting herewith a dissertation written by Eric D. Smith entitled “The Origins of a War of Secession: A Comparison of Namibia and Botswana.” I have examined the final electronic copy of this dissertation for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, with a major in Political Science. _____ _________________ Yang Zhong, Major Professor We have read this dissertation and recommend its acceptance: ___________________________ Robert Gorman ___________________________ Anthony Nownes ___________________________ Michael McKinney Accepted for the Council : ____________________________ Carolyn R. Hodges, Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School (Original signatures are on file with official student records) The Origins of a War of Secession: A Comparison of Namibia and Botswana A Dissertation Presented for the Doctor of Philosophy Degree The University of Tennessee, Knoxville Eric D. Smith August 2007 Copyright © 2007 by Eric Drummond Smith All rights reserved. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First I would like to thank my committee members, Yang Zhong, Anthony Nownes, Robert Gorman, and Michael McKinney, for sticking it out with me through all the complications that have accompanied the writing of this tome. I would also like to thank my previous mentors in the study of politics, history, development, and warfare, specifically Samir Saliba, Huiyan Wang, Stephen Fisher, Ed Davis, John Morgan, Brantly Womack, Ronald Dimburg, April Morgan, Mary Caprioli, Donna Lee Van Cott, Alexander Smith, and Michael Gant. Anything I have accomplished here is partly to their credit – the failures are my own. I would also like to thank my friends, too numerous to name, who served as sounding boards for my research problems and conundrums. Without constant debating and discussion I never would have been able to work out some of my theoretical and practical tangles. Muchas gracias to everyone at the Merchants Drive Starbucks in Knoxville, Tennessee – your caffeinated beverages and good humor were essential in keeping me awake and sane. Many thanks to the members of Cake, whose work essentially constitutes the soundtrack to this dissertation. Finally, I would like to thank my wife and family, without whom I would have long ago resigned myself to lesser goals. iii ABSTRACT This work is an attempt to define a comprehensive contemporary model of the causes of wars of secession, state and illustrate its gaps, and develop new theories to accentuate and improve that model, and through comparative case studies perform some elementary tests of their validity. My theoretical paradigm is dependent on an assumption that the ultimate causes, as captured under the rubric of institutions and structures, of an event involving rational but free-willed human beings are inadequate to explaining the onset of radical, extraordinary politics in general and wars of secession in particular. On the contrary, proximate causes, in the form of environmental factors that cannot be classified structural or institutional and which are either deeply influenced by elite decisions or deeply influence elite decisions must be brought into the theoretical chain. Specifically I examine the case of Namibia, focusing on the East Caprivi region where in 1999 a substantial portion of the Lozi population attempted to secede, comparing it to the case of Botswana and another minority, the Kalanga people who dominate the North East District. I find that the two states are (1) structurally and institutionally similar, to the point that were these the only causal factors involved one would assume they would suffer similar behavioral outcomes, (2) divergent in terms of minority political identities and degrees of mobilization, and (3) divergent in terms of a series of internal and external environmental decision that cannot be described as structural or institutional. iv DEDICATION This research is dedicated to the honor of my loving father, Wilbur Smith, who made me a scientist and a historian, and my loving mother, Margaret Gatherum Smith, who made me a theologian and a philosopher. I love you both, and I miss you Mom. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter I – Introduction and Summary…………..……………..…….……….1 - Justification of Research……………………………..…………………………….2 o Structuralism and Institutionalism: Necessary But Insufficient………………………...……………………………….………..4 - On Radical, Extraordinary Politics………………………………………………...8 - - Variance Among Disestablishmentarians: Definitions……………………..….12 o Mass Socio-Political Extermination……………………………………..13 o Revolutions………………………………………………………………..14 o Civil Wars………………………………………………………………….19 o Ethno-National Wars……………………………..……………………...22 o Where Are All the Wars of Secession………………………………….24 - Case Study: The Caprivi Lozi……………………………………….…………...26 o History……………………………………………………………………..27 o SWAPO, the CLA, and Post-Colonial Africa…………………………..33 o The East Caprivi Rebellion……………………………………………...35 o Summary………………………………………………………………….38 - Case Study: The Kalanga of Botswana……………..………………………….39 - Methodology……………………………………………………………………….41 o Operationalizations……………………………………………………….43 o On Identities and Loyalties………………………………………………48 o On the Genesis of Alternative Political-Economies…………………...49 o On Personnel Mobilization…………………………………………….…52 o On Resource Mobilization……………………………………………….52 o On Interstate Support for Secession……………………………………53 o On Risk Alleviation: Exit Strategies……………………………………..55 o On Internal Bounds Set by Establishment Elites……………………...56 - Findings………………………………………………….………………………....58 o Structural-Institutional Causes…………………………………………..58 o Identity Change as an Indicator…………………………………………61 o Mobilization as an Indicator……………………………………………...63 o Discrete Policies and Conditions as Causes…………………………..66 Chapter II – Literature Review………………………….………………………68 - Classical and Neoclassical Theories of Radical, Extraordinary Politics……..70 - Modern Theories of Radical, Extraordinary Politics and Relevant Contemporary International Relations Theories……………………………….73 vi - Theories of Ethno-National War and Genocide………………………….…….85 - The State Failure Task Force………………………………………………......111 - Theories on the Genesis of Radical Religious Fundamentalism……………113 - The Role of Elites in the Genesis of Radical, Extraordinary Politics….……122 Chapter III – The Unity of Disestablishmentarians: A Model of the Genesis of Radical, Extraordinary Politics………………………….……..145 - Ultimate Causes and Conditions of Radical, Extraordinary Politics………..150 o Real and Perceived Institutional and/or Structural Inequality: Illiberal Polities and Perceived Relative Deprivation……………….…………151 o The Perceived Failure of the State to Meet Fundamental Needs.…157 o The “Weak” State……………………………………..…………………158 o Appropriate Outside Forces……………………………………………163 o Spikes in Transportation and Communications Capabilities……….167 o On the Role of Identity……………………………………………….…169 - The Popularization of Extraordinary Politics……………………………….….171 o Value Entropy and Reformulation………………………………….….172 o Flashpoints/Trigger Events………………………………………….…175 - Summary……………………………………………………………………….....178 Chapter IV – Establishing the Structural and Institutional Equivalency of Namibia and Botswana……………………………………………………...…182 - Economic Comparison…………………………………………………………..183 o Gross National Product…………………………………………………183 o Gross National Product Per Capita……………………………………185 o Consumer Price Inflation…………………………………………….…186 o Income Inequality……………………………………………………..…188 o Composition and Modernity of Economy…………………………..…189 o Urbanization…………………………………………………………..…196 o Popular Access to Modern, Essential Infrastructure…………...……200 o Transportation Infrastructure………………………………………..…203 o Communication Infrastructure…………………………………………207 o Economic Prospects……………………………………………………210 - Socio-Cultural Comparison…………………………………………………..…212 o Total Population…………………………………………………………214
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