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The Hydropolitics of Southern Africa: the Case of the Zambezi River Basin As an Area of Potential Co-Operation Based on Allan's Concept of 'Virtual Water'

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The Hydropolitics of Southern Africa: the Case of the Zambezi River Basin As an Area of Potential Co-Operation Based on Allan's Concept of 'Virtual Water' THE HYDROPOLITICS OF SOUTHERN AFRICA: THE CASE OF THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN AS AN AREA OF POTENTIAL CO-OPERATION BASED ON ALLAN'S CONCEPT OF 'VIRTUAL WATER' by ANTHONY RICHARD TURTON submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS in the subject INTERNATIONAL POLITICS at the UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA SUPERVISOR: DR A KRIEK CO-SUPERVISOR: DR DJ KOTZE APRIL 1998 THE HYDROPOLITICS OF SOUTHERN AFRICA: THE CASE OF THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN AS AN AREA OF POTENTIAL CO-OPERATION BASED ON ALLAN'S CONCEPT OF 'VIRTUAL WATER' by ANTHONY RICHARD TURTON Summary Southern Africa generally has an arid climate and many hydrologists are predicting an increase in water scarcity over time. This research seeks to understand the implications of this in socio-political terms. The study is cross-disciplinary, examining how policy interventions can be used to solve the problem caused by the interaction between hydrology and demography. The conclusion is that water scarcity is not the actual problem, but is perceived as the problem by policy-makers. Instead, water scarcity is the manifestation of the problem, with root causes being a combination of climate change, population growth and misallocation of water within the economy due to a desire for national self-sufficiency in agriculture. The solution lies in the trade of products with a high water content, also known as 'virtual water'. Research on this specific issue is called for by the White Paper on Water Policy for South Africa. Key terms: SADC; Virtual water; Policy making; Water stress; Water barrier; Water balance; Population growth; Refugee migration; Riparian conflict; Resource conflict; Aridity; Desiccation; Climate change; Regional integration; Regional trade; Inter-basin transfer; Sectoral water efficiency; White Paper on Water Policy for South Africa; Enmeshment; Catchment management; Helsinki Rules; Functional co-operation Student number: 518-859-8 I declare that, ''THE HYDROPOLITICS OF SOUTHERN AFRICA: THE CASE OF THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN AS AN AREA OF POTENTIAL CO­ OPERATION BASED ON ALLAN'S CONCEPT OF 'VIRTUAL WATER"', is my own work and that all sources that I have used or quoted have been indicated and acknowledged by means of complete references. ......~.~l.~/!X. ~;~~~· DATE (Mr AR TURTON) "Rather than look upstream in anger, we must start looking downstream with compassion" Minister Kader Asmal Announcing the White Paper on Water Policy for South Africa International water resources, specifically shared river systems, shall be managed in a manner that optimises the benefits for all parties, in a spirit of mutual co-operation. Allocations agreed for downstream countries shall be respected. Principle 11 of the White Paper on Water Policy for South Africa ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge my indebtedness to the following persons, all of whom have been deeply inspirational to me during the preparation of this research. My wife, Anna and two children, Rex and Melissa are sincerely thanked for their ongoing sacrifice and support. I was not the easiest person to live with while I was grappling with this research, especially when my computer crashed and I lost all of the data. Rex helped me recover my data and assisted subsequently with the overall management of my computer. His superior knowledge in this regard is willingly acknowledged. Anna drew the map of the Kasikili-Sedudu dispute, which is presented in Figure 17, as no maps were available from other sources. She also assisted with the tedious task of proof reading. Mariana Daffue started the intellectual journey for me. Once I had become interested in the research area, she began ferreting out information from places that I never knew existed. It is largely through her efforts that I managed to gather the facts that are presented in this research. Prof. Tony Allan of the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) came next. I presented my crude ideas to him, initially engaging in e-mail correspondence. A productive exchange of ideas began and he helped me to start thinking about the broad problem in more specific terms. It all came together one day in the staff common room at SOAS, when he explained the concept of 'virtual water' to me. The penny had dropped! I left SOAS in a state of excitement, and sat under the huge plane trees in Russell Square, scribbling down the concepts given by Prof. Allan, linking previously loose ideas together. This became my research proposal that Prof. Allan later read and commented on. Introduced to me by Prof. Allan, Mr. Terry Evans opened up his personal library to me. He unselfishly shared with me his entire lifelong experience as a hydrologist with considerable African experience. More importantly he helped me, a social scientist, to understand the basic hydrological concepts that are the starting point of this research. I originally met Prof. Brian Davies at Victoria Falls, overlooking the Zambezi River. I was immediately struck by his keen scientific mind, but more importantly for me as a social scientist, by his pugnacious passion for river ecology. Of great interest to me, he was involved in the original studies of the Zambezi during the commissioning of Cahora Bassa. His passionate plea to heed the lessons from experience, especially when it comes to tinkering with the environment by means of IBTs and the folly of a purely supply sided management mentality, is reflected in this study. I have known Dr. Annamarie Kriek since my undergraduate years. Her insatiable enthusiasm for her work has always served as an inspiration to me. She combines a naturaljoie de vivre with a keen scientific mind and for this I admire her. Her gentle yet firm guidance has helped to reign me in when I tended to move off at a tangent. Her advice has been invaluable and has always been heeded. Dr. Dirk Kotze became my co-promoter towards the end of the study. He diligently read my draft copy and systematically highlighted the weaknesses and problem areas. He forced me to radically re-think the approach that I was using and it is largely through his efforts that the final document is structured as it is. His guidance was gratefully received at a time when some of the problems that arise from a cross­ disciplinary study began to emerge. Dr. Mark Dent of the Computing Centre for Water Research (CCWR) at the University of Natal, was a great assistance in locating SWE data that was not forthcoming from other sources. He subsequently read my draft copy and supported my efforts at a time when the going got tough. Mr. Hugo Maaren of the Water Research Commission (WRC) gave me a lot of assistance by circulating my original draft copy amongst a number of interested researchers. He also provided me with a platform from which to propagate the ideas that have emerged from this research and thereby test the feelings of other researchers within the water field. This willingness to embrace the social sciences into the domains that have traditionally been the home of hydrologists, biologists, chemists and engineers has served to encourage me further. Mr. Alan Conley of the Department of Water Affairs is also gratefully acknowledged. His lateral thinking and incisive mind have always inspired me. I have run my ideas past him on a number of occasions. Where he has criticised my thinking, I have always gone away and re-thought the issue and in all cases his guidance has proved to be valid. Wisdom is the product of a life experience, and aspects of this are what Mr. Conley has shared with me. Finally, the transformation that has been taking place within the Department of Water Affairs, which was fmally encapsulated in the White Paper on Water Policy for South Africa, has truly provided the foundation for the cross-disciplinary nature of this research. The wisdom of Minister Kader Asmal in this regard is fully acknowledged, as the White Paper is largely the result of his leadership. To these people I owe a deep debt of gratitude. I alone accept responsibility for the conclusions of my research however. 11 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction THE PROBLEM AND ITS SETTING Background to the Problem 1 The Statement of the Problem 2 The Subproblems 2 Subproblem 1 2 Subproblem 2 2 Subproblem 3 2 Subproblem 4 2 The Hypotheses 3 Hypothesis 1 3 Hypothesis 2 3 Hypothesis 3 3 Hypothesis 4 3 The Assumptions 3 The Delimitations 4 The Definition of Terms 5 The Importance of the Study 8 Research Design and Methodology 13 Structure of the Study 17 Chapter 1 REVIEW OF THE THEORETICAL ASPECTS OF THE STUDY A General Overview 19 Lowi's Theory of Hegemonic Co-operation 30 Allan's Concept of 'Virtual Water' 34 Falkenmark's Water Scarcity Indicators and Water Barrier Scale 46 SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourse Systems 55 Conclusion 58 Ill Chapter2 DISCUSSION OF LITERATURE RELATING TO THE SUBPROBLEMS Introduction 61 Literature Related to 'Water Scarcity' (Subproblem 1) 61 Literature Related to 'Population Growth' (Subproblem 2) 70 Literature Related to 'Agricultural Capacity' (Subproblem 3) 74 Literature Related to 'Industrial Development' (Subproblem 4) 83 Conclusion 90 Chapter3 QUANTIFICATION OF THE PROBLEM Introduction 95 ANGOLA Subproblems 1 & 2 96 Recoverable Water Resources 96 Population Growth 96 Water Barrier Scale 97 Hydrological I Population Risk Assessment 97 Subproblems 3 & 4 98 Sectoral Water Efficiency Ratio 99 Political Factors: Lowi's Variables 100 Resource Need I Dependence 100 Rapport de Forces 101 Character of Riparian Relations 101 Conclusion 102 BOTSWANA Subproblems 1 & 2 102 Recoverable Water Resources
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