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New Covenant on Human Spaceflight IAA–94–IAA.3.1.634 The Need for a New Political Covenant on Human Spaceflight Wendell W. Mendell NASA Johnson Space Center Houston, TX 77058 USA 45TH CONGRESS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASTRONAUTICAL FEDERATION October 9 – 14, 1994 / Jerusalem, Israel The Need for a New Political Covenant on Human Spaceflight Wendell W. Mendell Earth Science & Solar System Exploration Div. NASA Johnson Space Center Houston, TX 77058 USA Abstract United States, Russia, and Europe are particularly concerned. In Japan, modest space budgets Of all international space activities, human appear steady and even increasing; and China has spaceflight is most closely tied to the now obsolete recently begun formulating a new program of rationales of the Cold War. Even though only two human spaceflight. agencies have human programs, the total expendi- Human spaceflight is particularly expensive, ture exceeds that for all other civil space activities and only the United States and Russia have felt combined. Currently, the political rationale for compelled to make that scale of societal invest- the Space Station in the U.S. is heavily connected ment. In the 1980’s Europe, Japan, and Canada to foreign policy objectives relative to the Russian decided to invest significant fractions of their Federation; and the lifetime of these policies may space budgets in the International Space Station. not be commensurate with the construction and Their political ally, the U.S., called for support; but operation of a space station. The long term viabil- they also perceived that investment in the associ- ity of human exploration of space requires that a ated technologies was necessary to stay competi- new political covenant must be constructed be- tive and influential on the world scene. tween the technical community and the rest of so- After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the po- ciety as represented by international political insti- litical rationale in the U.S. for what is called Space tutions. Although U.S. space policy includes a Station Alpha has evolved until now the emphasis goal to expand human presence beyond low Earth in the Clinton Administration is on constructive orbit, it has never been fully debated within the investment in the fragile Russian economy. Space U.S. political system. Thus, no ownership of it agencies still tout the technical benefits of research exists within the general political process. in low Earth orbit, but it is doubtful whether those Legitimate philosophical rationales exist arguments in isolation would justify the requested which support an investment in human space- level of funding. Space Station Alpha and Mir are flight. Although human spaceflight can also be currently the only tangible commitments to the supported in terms of the massive problems facing future of human spaceflight, and proponents of humanity on the Earth in the next Century, they human exploration are not confident in the ro- are of little interest to today’s politicians. Never- bustness of their political support. theless, thoughtful dialogue with leaders and Space activities at some level undoubtedly opinion-makers can result in a political consensus have a long term future. National security for investment in human spaceflight. However, considerations still justify a military space the space community must face up to the chal- program, if only for intelligence gathering and lenge of finding institutional and technical imple- communication. Certain commercial space sectors mentations which are much more economical than are healthy, particularly telecommunications and those we now have. Trust must be engendered global positioning systems. Commercialized between the technical community and the political remote sensing is doing less well. Space science is process rooted in a mutual education and enlight- being squeezed, but some investment will enment on the problems facing each. continue into the foreseeable future. The prospects for human spaceflight are less The Political Threat to Human Space Exploration certain. On one hand, some futurists predict diminishing resources on Earth will have to be Permeating all gatherings of space profession- supplemented by resources from space such as als is a concern over shrinking budgets in an era of energy-producing facilities or strategic materials worldwide economic recession. The end of the mined from planets or asteroids. So far, predic- Cold War has led to falling priorities for space tions of doom have had little effect on either exploration. Aerospace professionals in the politicians or investors. Other futurists believe 3 that space exploration is simply part of life’s ulti- cal capability which had arisen undetected in the mate purpose. Humans will expand into the solar secret lair of the Soviet bear. While development system because they can, and that expansion is of nuclear weapons by the Soviets could be ratio- necessary for ultimate survival of the species. nalized by the U.S. public as theft of technology by In this paper, I do not want to examine the va- a pervasive spy network, a preemptive technical lidity or effectiveness of these rationales; others triumph could not be so easily dismissed. have done so at great length. I agree that space The political benefits of space spectaculars development of any significant scale cannot occur were not lost on Nikita Khrushchev. Over the until economic incentives dominate, but for at next five years, he pressured the Soviet Chief least next two decades we must deal with political Designer, Korolev, to produce ever greater public rationales. (In fact, the situation will never change relations victories by pushing to the limits the as long as space agencies and aerospace compa- basic capabilities of his rockets. Korolev would nies remain “comfortable” with government doles have preferred to increase capability for space and refuse to focus on making space accessible to exploration and development in a more rational private investment.) Therefore, I want to consider manner.1 the nature of the implicit social contract between In the United States, the initial Sputnik shock the political processes and the space community. led to the National Space Act and the formation of NASA. John Kennedy campaigned on the mythi- Politics at the Birth of the Space Age cal missile gap and subsequently initiated the Cold War arms race after election. The launch of A remarkable event occurred in October 1957. Yuri Gagarin into orbit, superimposed on the Bay The people who were involved with it knew that it of Pigs debacle in Cuba, led to Kennedy’s an- would be remarkable, but they had no idea just nouncement of the Moon Race. Within four years how significant it would become. human space exploration had gone from pure In 1950, the RAND Corporation submitted a fantasy to hard reality. The sky was no longer the secret report to the U.S. Government pointing out limit for the dreamers of cosmic voyages. possible legal problems to be faced with the launching of proposed reconnaissance satellites1. Astronauts: An Endangered Species The Soviet Union could have legal grounds for protesting violation of sovereignty when a satellite As the race to the Moon proceeded in the passed into its “air space” during an orbit. When decade of the 1960’s, political urgency subsided the scientific community submitted plans for the and the NASA budget declined. Many questioned International Geophysical Year (IGY) which in- whether there was a race at all. As the first Moon cluded the first launches of artificial Earth satel- landing approached, President Nixon asked for a lites, one by the United States and one by the So- strategy for future space exploration. The Space viet Union, the initiative was perceived to provide Task Group, assembled by NASA and led by the a solution to the secret debate in foreign policy. Vice-President, presented a cornucopia of large The participation of the Soviet Union in this crewed space stations and bases on the Moon and benign scientific activity would set an interna- Mars2. The President rejected these visions en- tional legal precedent that permission was not re- tirely, given budgetary pressures from the Viet- quired to place a satellite in an orbit passing over nam War and from social programs. Elimination another country. The Eisenhower Administration of the human space program was contemplated. chose the struggling Vanguard program to be the A series of political considerations led to the U.S. representative because the implementing Space Shuttle program. President Nixon was agency (Naval Research Laboratory) had less of a concerned about votes in California, home of military association than did the Army Ballistic major aerospace industry, in the 1972 election. Missile Command with its Jupiter rocket. The NASA struck a deal with the Department of possibility that the Soviet satellite might be Defense to support the Shuttle if NASA modified launched first was a secondary consideration and it to meet some military requirements. Finally, even slightly desirable, given the legal concerns. NASA produced economic models which No one anticipated the political firestorm that predicted major reductions in launch costs with a erupted following Sputnik. The U.S. media char- reusable, frequently launched system. acterized the event as proof of a terrifying techni- 3 4 Parsimonious funding of the Shuttle program and unforeseen technical problems led to delays of Space Exploration is not Politically Correct the first flight. One significant consequence was the loss of the Skylab, the U.S. space station, which The Space Exploration Initiative was one fell into the atmosphere over Australia. The Space victim of political wars between the Executive and Shuttle also turned out to be an expensive vehicle the Legislative Branches of the U.S. Government, to operate with launch frequencies more than a but its demise was aided by indifference and factor of 5 less than promised. political ineptness in NASA in the charged political environment.
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