Annual Planning Report 2019
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Annual Planning Report 2019 Version 1.0 | Effective Date: 21/12/19 Document management Version control Date Version Description Author 21/09/19 0.1 Initial Draft J.Worony 04/12/19 1.0 Final Draft J.Worony Approval Date Name Position Signature Author Group Manager General Manager Evoenergy contact in relation to this report: Gavin Morrison Planning and Regulatory Manager GPO Box 366 Canberra ACT 2601 Email: [email protected] Annual Planning Report 2019 (V1.0) Page 2 of 200 DISCLAIMER This document is the responsibility of the Strategy & Operations Group within Evoenergy Distribution (ABN 76 670 568 688) (Evoenergy). This report is prepared by Evoenergy in its capacity as the Transmission Network Service Provider and the Distribution Network Service Provider in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). While care was taken in preparation of this report, to the maximum extent permitted by law, Evoenergy makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) as to the quality, currency, accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the information contained in this document, or its suitability for any intended purpose. Persons reading or accessing this report acknowledge and accept that Evoenergy (which, for the purposes of this disclaimer, is a reference to the ActewAGL Distribution partnership, the individual partners and their parent companies and includes all of its related bodies corporate, its officers, employees, contractors, agents and consultants, and those of its individual partners, their parent companies and related bodies corporate) shall have no liability (including liability to any person by reason of negligence or negligent misstatement) for any statements, opinions, information or matter (expressed or implied) arising out of, contained in, or derived from, or for any omissions from, the information in this report. This report contains certain predictions, estimates and statements that reflect various assumptions. Those assumptions may or may not prove correct, may change over time and depend upon a range of factors that are outside the control of Evoenergy. Persons accessing this report should conduct their own inquiries to independently verify and check the quality, currency, accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of the information that this report contains and any reports or other information identified as having been used to prepare this report. REVIEW DATE It is intended that in compliance with the regulatory requirements this report will be updated annually and the next report will be published by 31 December 2020. However, if Evoenergy identifies that material changes are required, Evoenergy may amend this document at any time. Amendments will be indicated in the version control table. Annual Planning Report 2019 (V1.0) Page 3 of 200 Annual Planning Report 2019 (V1.0) Page 4 of 200 Table of Contents Annual Planning Report 2019 1 Document management 2 Version control 2 Approval 2 DISCLAIMER 3 Table of Contents 5 List of figures 8 List of Tables 10 Introducing Evoenergy 12 Purpose of this report 12 Executive summary 13 Chapter overview 23 Chapter 1 Opportunities for interested parties 24 1.1 Engagement in broad-based demand management programs 25 1.2 Engagement in targeted demand management initiatives 26 1.3 Engagement in a regulatory investment test 29 1.4 General feedback and suggestions 31 Chapter 2 About Evoenergy 32 2.1 Introduction 32 2.2 Evoenergy’s physical environment 33 2.3 Regulatory environment 36 2.4 Factors impacting future network development 37 Chapter 3 Asset life cycle management 43 3.1 Asset management approach and components 43 3.2 Network planning methodology 45 3.3 Risk based probabilistic planning 45 3.4 Management of the existing assets 47 3.5 Asset Maintenance 48 3.6 Annual planning report 49 Annual Planning Report 2019 (V1.0) Page 5 of 200 Chapter 4 Network performance 51 4.1 Network Reliability 51 4.2 Power quality 55 Chapter 5 System load and energy demand, and the supply-demand balance 58 5.1 Introduction 58 5.2 System demand 58 5.2 Zone Substation Load Forecasts 65 5.3 Load Transfer Capability 69 Chapter 6 Managing existing assets 71 6.1 Network primary assets 71 6.2 Secondary systems 81 6.3 Information Technology 88 Chapter 7 System planning 94 7.1 Network planning - what are the main challenges 94 7.2 Joint planning with TransGrid 95 7.3 Inter-Regional Impact of Projects & Relevant National Transmission Flow Path developments 96 7.4 Urgent and unforeseen need 96 7.5 Planning outcomes -network constraints and limitations 97 7.6 Projects Currently In Progress 100 7.7 Projects Completed 108 7.8 Proposed Network Developments 108 7.9 Regulatory Investment Test 118 Chapter 8 Demand Management 119 8.1 What are the current challenges for Demand Management? 119 8.2 What has Evoenergy done in the DM space during the last year? 119 8.3 What does Evoenergy propose to do in the future in the DM space? 120 8.4 Overview of demand management 120 8.5 Demand Side Engagement Strategy 121 8.6 Demand Side Management Programs 122 8.7 Demand Management considerations 123 Chapter 9 Future ways of working 125 9.1 Overview 125 Annual Planning Report 2019 (V1.0) Page 6 of 200 9.1 OpEN – Open Energy Networks project 125 9.2 Virtual Power Plants 125 9.3 Innovation projects 127 9.4 Ginninderry energy pilot project 128 9.6 Advanced meters 129 9.7 Remote area power supplies 129 9.8 Drones and LIDAR Technology 131 9.9 Advanced Fault Detection and Auto-Reclosing Schemes 132 9.10 FLISR (Fault Location, Isolation and Supply Restoration) Automated FLISR (Fault Location, Isolation and Supply Restoration) 133 Appendix A – Glossary of Terms 134 Appendix B – Network physical characteristics 136 Appendix C – The regulatory framework and operating environment 151 Appendix D – Evoenergy integrated asset management and network planning 156 Appendix E – Demand forecasts – supplementary information 164 Appendix F – Network reliability standards and performance 180 Appendix G – Power quality standards and obligations 186 Appendix H – Network technical parameters and systems 193 Annual Planning Report 2019 (V1.0) Page 7 of 200 List of figures Figure 1. Summer and winter historical demand and forecast with probability of exceedance (PoE) 15 Figure 2. Summer maximum demand components 16 Figure 3. Overview - network limitations heat map 18 Figure 4. Overview - rooftop photovoltaic generation heat map >25% 20 Figure 5. Four paths of engagement 25 Figure 6. Process overview – projects not subject to regulatory investment test 28 Figure 7. Process overview – projects subject to Regulatory Investment Test 30 Figure 8. Evoenergy within the industry supply chain 33 Figure 9. Evoenergy’s transmission network – geographic representation 34 Figure 10. Evoenergy’s existing transmission network - schematic representation 35 Figure 11. Utility regulation framework – main elements 36 Figure 12. Towards the future network 39 Figure 13. Asset management and network planning – overview of key artefacts 44 Figure 14. Overview – probabilistic risk based investment decisions 46 Figure 15. Optimising asset retirement and renewal – an overview 48 Figure 16. Annual planning review – outline of the process 49 Figure 17. SAIDI- unplanned interruptions per customer (minutes per customer per year) 51 Figure 18. SAIFI- unplanned interruptions per customer (number of interruptions per customer per year) 52 Figure 19. 2019 summer and winter maximum demand day load profiles. 59 Figure 20. 10-year summer and winter maximum demand forecast. 60 Figure 21. Components of 50% PoE Winter maximum underlying demand forecast 62 Figure 22. Components of 50% PoE Winter maximum underlying demand forecast. 63 Figure 23. 10-year summer and winter minimum demand forecast. 64 Figure 24. Gold Creek Substation 10-year forecast. 65 Figure 25. Gilmore Substation 10-year forecast 66 Figure 26. Civic Substation 10-year forecast. 67 Figure 27. Woden ZSS 10-year forecast. 68 Figure 28. Fibre Optic Network – Northern ACT 86 Figure 29. Fibre Optic Network – Southern ACT 87 Figure 30. Proposed Stockdill Substation and 132 kV line connection 102 Figure 31. Causeway Switching Station 105 Figure 32. Causeway Switching Station – Proposed 132 kV Cabling 106 Figure 33. Development of Molonglo Valley 110 Figure 34. Proposed development of Molonglo Valley 113 Annual Planning Report 2019 (V1.0) Page 8 of 200 Figure 35. Fyshwick Zone Substation: Outdoor wooden pole strung busbars. Indoor 66 kV electromechanical protection relays 116 Figure 36. Future (10 years) Transmission Network 117 Figure 37. Distribution of domestic rooftop solar PV installations throughout the ACT. 144 Figure 38. Top down and bottom up approaches to risk assessment 157 Figure 39. Block diagram of the Integrated Monash Electricity Forecasting Model. 165 Figure 40. Belconnen Substation 10-year summer and winter demand forecast chart 173 Figure 41. City East Substation 10-year summer and winter demand forecast chart 173 Figure 42. Civic Substation 10-year summer and winter demand forecast chart 174 Figure 43. East Lake Substation 10-year summer and winter demand forecast chart 174 Figure 44. Fyshwick Substation 10-year summer and winter demand forecast chart 175 Figure 45. Gilmore Substation 10-year summer and winter demand forecast chart 175 Figure 46. Gold Creek Substation 10-year summer and winter demand forecast chart 176 Figure 47. Latham Substation 10-year summer and winter demand forecast chart 176 Figure 48. Telopea Park Substation 10-year summer and winter demand forecast chart 177 Figure 49. Tennent Substation 10-year summer and winter demand forecast chart 177 Figure 50. Theodore Substation 10-year summer and winter demand forecast chart 178 Figure 51. Wanniassa Substation 10-year summer and winter demand forecast chart 178 Figure 52. Woden Substation 10-year summer and winter demand forecast chart 179 Annual Planning Report 2019 (V1.0) Page 9 of 200 List of Tables Table 1. Existing and emerging limitations transmission network and distribution network 17 Table 2.