Agri-Bites | ASEAN CONSUMER RELATED/AGRI RELATED
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Agri-Bites | ASEAN CONSUMER RELATED/AGRI RELATED Tanuj Shori +65 6433 6981 [email protected] NOMURA SINGAPORE LIMITED Ken Arieff Wong +60 3 2027 6895 [email protected] Ploenjai Jirajarus (Capital Nomura Securities) BULLISH Action Stocks for action The correction in soft commodities ytd and corresponding equity underperformance Price Price (although valuations never ran up in the first place) provide an attractive broad-based (17 Mar) target Pot. BUYing opportunity, in our view. Crude oil support and any prospects of QE3 should Stock Rating (local) (local) upside (%) prevent commodity prices from going into free-fall as global inventories are at multi- OLAM SP BUY 2.55 3.90 52.9 year lows. We continue to like planters (IFAR, Sime and LonSum), Olam, Noble, NOBL SP BUY 2.07 2.80 35.3 Mewah, Indian agri stocks, and think earnings will be near-term catalysts. US planting MII SP BUY 0.87 1.34 54.0 BUY report may provide the fillip to palm oil as soy may lose the acreage battle. SIME MK 9.00 12.15 35.0 IFAR SP BUY 2.16 3.40 57.4 BUY Catalysts LSIP IJ 2,225 3,040 36.6 GGR SP BUY 0.64 0.90 40.6 Supply-driven imbalances and consolidation should drive near- to medium-term GENP MK BUY 7.97 10.50 31.7 newsflow and implied price reactions for soft commodities and related equity plays. IOI MK BUY 5.57 7.00 25.7 KLK MK BUY 20.60 25.50 23.8 Anchor themes AALI IJ BUY 21,750 28,400 30.6 RSI IN BUY 99.20 170.00 71.4 Dominant themes include: 1) China/India consumption; 2) food inflation; 3) weather Ratings and price targets are as of the date of the most patterns; 4) US$ and crude oil movements; and 5) business restructuring. recently published report (http://www.Nomura.com), rather than the date of this document. *LSIP’s price target reflects 1:5 share split in March 2011. The great buying fair for food exposure Analysts Tanuj Shori Upstream names offer good value; BUY Sime, IFAR and LonSum +65 6433 6981 Current upstream valuations have been beaten down with recent weakness in the [email protected] CPO price, offering strong upside even assuming RM3,000/tonne for CPO (lower Ken Arieff Wong than consensus and spot prices — we maintain our assumption at RM3,400/tonne +60 3 2027 6895 in FY11F). A positive outlook for global agri-commodities (with multi-year low [email protected] inventories) and strong crude oil prices support our bullish CPO price view. Our top Ploenjai Jirajarus picks include IndoAgri, LonSum, Genting Plantations and Sime Darby. (Capital Nomura Securities) Olam and Mewah are looking oversold, we still like Noble Tushar Mohata (Associate) Vishnuvardana Reddy (Associate) We still like Noble, as we believe its earnings momentum should continue near term and think it should be a net beneficiary of sugar, coal and carbon credit markets. On Olam, we think concerns are overdone and earnings will provide a Upcoming key events good catalyst for a bounce-back. We believe Mewah at current valuations (~9x P/E) Date Country Event 8 April US USDA Data Release is looking very good from a risk-reward perspective, but low liquidity is a concern. 11 Apr MY MPOB Data release Source: Nomura research, Bloomberg Marketing feedback – Wilmar, KLK, LonSum, Olam, Minzhong liked Monthly stock performance Most questions during our marketing were on Olam. Overall, we saw investors Local Mkt cap 1 wk 1 mth looking for BUY ideas in palm as CPO may stabilize; their top picks seemed to be Stock Ticker price* (US$mn) chg (%) chg (%) KLK, IFAR and London Sumatra. There was interest in niche plays like China Wilmar WIL SP 5.01 25,091 (5.3) (5.5) Minzhong and GMG, as well, with broad consensus positive on rubber. We got Noble NOBL SP 2.07 9,775 0.5 (1.9) some pushback on Noble as our top pick as investors think earnings expectations Olam OLAM SP 2.55 4,248 (5.6) (12.7) may be priced in. While we are NEUTRAL on Wilmar, we saw much interest in the Mewah MII SP 0.87 1,026 (10.8) (17.9) stock at current levels with investors getting positive vibes from insider buying. Sime Darby SIME MK 9 17,707 (1.1) (3.0) IOI IOI MK 5.5711,695 (2.5) (0.2) KL Kepong KLK MK 20.6 7,199 (1.3) (5.9) All eyes on US planting data – who will win the acreage battle? Gent Plant GENP MK 7.97 1,980 0.9 (1.6) As per a recent USDA forecast, winners this time around will likely be corn and Astra Agro AALI IJ 21750 3,897 (4.2) (5.4) wheat, while soybean acreage may not gain. This is mostly driven by current Lonsum LSIP IJ 2225 1,727 (6.3) 0.2 soybean prices, which are lower than corn and wheat, and thus less attractive for Golden Agri GGR SP 0.64 6,080 (4.5) (7.9) planters to plant. The much-anticipated Planting Intentions Survey result will be Indofood IFAR SP 2.16 2,447 (5.3) (13.3) released on 31 March and will provide a more accurate picture on planting Ruchi Soya RSI IN 99.2 659 (2.4) (6.0) expectations for the coming season. We think that as long as other crops such as KS Oils KSO IN 31.85 280 (7.0) (7.5) wheat, corn and cotton maintain their price strength, soybean should maintain its * Pricing as of 17 Mar Source: Bloomberg current strength – supportive of global vegetable oils, including palm oil. Any authors named on this report are research analysts unless otherwise indicated. See the important disclosures and analyst certifications on pages 61 to 65. Nomura 1 23 March 2011 Agri-Bites | ASEAN Tanuj Shori / Ken Arieff Wong Contents Nomura ASEAN Soft Commodity Team 4 The great buying fair 5 In line with commodities, equities have underperformed as well… 6 CPO price has corrected 14% from its peak, but equities punished further – unwarranted in our view 6 CPO price assumption maintained 7 CPO discount to soybean oil comes off, lending some comfort 8 All eyes on US spring planting season; USDA expects little change in hectarage for soybean, with most gains in to be made in corn and wheat 8 Impact of Japanese earthquake on agri-commodities 9 Long positions of “managed money” in soy oil futures withdraws as risk appetite withdraws 10 Stocks: what we like and what we don’t 12 Upstream planters severely punished – offer ‘deep value’ 12 Midstream: we continue to like Noble, Olam and Mewah, but are cautious on Wilmar 12 We also like Indian edible oil players – Ruchi Soya and KS Oils 13 Thai Food & Agri: CNS prefers food processors CPF and GFPT on global demand for high-quality processed foods and benefit from soft commodity price drop 13 Other data points for the month 14 Malaysian February palm oil data — production and exports down, prices fairly reflect inventory levels 14 China soybean crushing margins fell in February, US margins almost at parity 14 Palm oil industry refining margins spike 15 Major news flow for the month 16 Round-up of Feb-March 2011 17 Last month’s commodity price performance: negative 17 Stock performance generally negative, agri inputs and midstream lead fall 17 Consensus downgrades occur on price correction, profit taking 17 Valuation snapshot 18 Valuation charts 24 The ups and downs 26 Last month’s commodity price performance: negative 26 Stock performance generally negative, agri inputs and midstream lead fall 27 YTD 2011 recap: generally negative returns by agri stocks 27 Consensus downgrades occur due to price correction, profit taking 28 Ears to the ground 30 Important events/news flow summary 30 Company news flow summary 32 Highlights of our published research 33 Nomura 2 23 March 2011 Agri-Bites | ASEAN Tanuj Shori / Ken Arieff Wong Commodity snippets 34 Palm oil 35 What you need to know for the month of March 35 Soybean, soy meal and soy oil 39 USDA forecasts improving soybean supply in 2010/11F, consumption to rise more 39 World protein meal supply to grow in tandem with disappearance; vegetable oil disappearance to outpace supply growth 40 World soybean production to fall slightly in 2010/11F 41 Brazil and US to capture share of Argentine soybean exports in 2010/11F 42 Soybean consumption to grow at 8.1% in 2010/11F; same as 09/10F 42 China continues to be a substantial consumer of soy products 44 China soybean crushing margins fall in February-March 45 Sugar 47 ISO further cuts sugar surplus forecast for 2010/11F on Australian floods and China weather 47 Thai sugar export volume and price up in Jan-11 47 World sugar prices fell m-m in March 2011 due to expected sugar surplus from India 48 Grains — rice, wheat and corn 49 Grain stock usage ratios to tighten in for wheat and corn while improving for rice in 2010/11F 49 World rice price continues to be weak y-y and m-m in Mar-11 50 Thai rice export volume up in Jan 11 51 Wheat exports in major producing regions to drop in 2009/10F and 2010/11F 51 US corn production to fall, but offset by gains in China 52 Rubber 53 Global natural rubber to grow 4.6% in 2011F and 3.8% in 2012F 53 Thai rubber export volume down but export price up in Jan 11 53 Future rubber price down m-m on worry about car industry in China and the impact from the earthquake in Japan 53 Appendix 1: crop calendar 55 Appendix 2: monthly weather update 56 Valuation methodologies 57 Risks to our investment view 58 Nomura 3 23 March 2011 Agri-Bites | ASEAN Tanuj Shori / Ken Arieff Wong Nomura ASEAN Soft Commodity Team Tanuj SHORI ASEAN Commodity Supply Chain +65 6433 6981 [email protected] Ken Arieff WONG ASEAN Plantations +60 3 2027 6895 [email protected] Ploenjai JIRAJARUS Capital Nomura Securities +662 638 5772 [email protected] Tushar MOHATA +91 22 6723 4042 [email protected] Vishnuvardana REDDY +91 22 3053 2847 [email protected] Nomura 4 23 March 2011 Agri-Bites | ASEAN Tanuj Shori / Ken Arieff Wong What’s in this issue of our Agri-Bites The great buying fair After a strong 2H10, we have so far seen a weak 2011, with agri-commodity prices and stocks both having corrected considerably year to date.