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Dilemmas of Opposition: Building Parties and Coalitions in Authoritarian Regimes

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Dilemmas of Opposition: Building Parties and Coalitions in Authoritarian Regimes DILEMMAS OF OPPOSITION: BUILDING PARTIES AND COALITIONS IN AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Cornell University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Sebastian Carl Dettman December 2018 © 2018 Sebastian Carl Dettman DILEMMAS OF OPPOSITION: BUILDING PARTIES AND COALITIONS IN AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES Sebastian Carl Dettman, Ph. D. Cornell University 2018 Approximately one third of the world’s states are competitive authoritarian regimes, where opposition parties compete against powerful incumbents that skew political and electoral institutions to their advantage. A key challenge for opposition parties in such regimes is to expand their electoral support and work with other opposition actors to win greater power. Under what conditions are they successful in building broad-based and coordinated challenges to authoritarian rulers? This dissertation argues that opposition success hinges on their strategic choices in elections and in office – and how they navigate key tradeoffs and dilemmas of expansion. Individual opposition parties face diverging incentives and costs to expand based on the identities and issues around which they initially build support. At the collective level, opposition parties often seek to coordinate their electoral challenges against the incumbent to build broader power. But when opposition parties work together, they face strong pressure to stick with their existing niche identities, since pursuing strategies of party broadening – changes to party image to appeal to new constituencies – risks encroaching on the electoral terrain and core constituencies of their coalition partners. As a result, parties frequently struggle to navigate conflicting incentives of individual and collective electoral strategies to win power. iii The dissertation tests the theory empirically using evidence from Malaysia, until 2018 the world’s longest-running dominant party authoritarian government. It analyzes the strategies and variable success of the country’s opposition parties in pursuing their core electoral and policy goals and coordinating their efforts in this environment – and why they were ultimately successful in securing substantial electoral support. Additional case studies illustrate how individual and collective dilemmas of expansion inform opposition behavior in other competitive authoritarian regimes. The study offers new insights into why opposition parties have difficulty in unseating even weak authoritarian incumbents, and the conditions under which they successfully scale up their power. iv BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH Sebastian Dettman received his Bachelor of Arts degree in International/Intercultural Studies at Pitzer College and his Master of Arts in Southeast Asian Studies at the University of Michigan. He is a 2018-19 Postdoctoral Fellow in Contemporary Asia at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS It has been exciting to witness the momentous changes happening in Malaysia as I completed this dissertation, and to reflect on the many courageous individuals I met who helped play a part. So first and foremost, I want to thank the politicians, party members, civil society activists, civil servants, and others who gave their time to share perspectives, data, and ideas during and after my fieldwork. This project would not have been possible without their knowledge and insights, and willingness to share them with a foreign researcher. My dissertation committee has had a profound impact on this project from start to finish. Tom Pepinsky was an ideal advisor and dissertation chair. He patiently read and commented on countless iterations of my prospectus and dissertation drafts, offered well-timed feedback to nudge me forward, and was a consistent advocate and source of support from the beginning to end of my graduate school career. My two committee members also played a large role in shaping the dissertation project as it evolved and helped me out of many intellectual ruts. Ken Roberts and Nic van de Walle provided thoughtful comments and questions on each of the chapters and pushed me to think about the implications of the project beyond Southeast Asia. Val Bunce provided a host of useful comments and suggestions as the external reader of this dissertation. During my fieldwork, some of my informants went above and beyond in sharing their knowledge and experiences, passing on invitations to party and campaign events, and facilitating important introductions: A special thank you to Medaline Chang, Mazlee Malik, Liew Chin Tong, Ong Kian Ming, R. Sivarasa, Muhtar Suhaili, and Yeo Bee Yin for their help. Terence Gomez at the University of Malaya helped in securing my research affiliation and repeatedly helped re-energize me through our conversations. Rusni Tajari and Zeera (Yaya) Razuzi entered in many lines of vi information from electoral returns data. In addition to her help in data entry, Yaya was also my tutor in Bahasa Malaysia. I’ll forgive her for gleefully poking fun at my Indonesian accent and vocabulary when speaking Malay. Michael and YC Tan provided an incredibly welcoming home environment for my time in Kelantan, and the same for Jared Glanz-Berger and Jasmin Johnson in Kuala Lumpur. A more diffuse thank you is in order to the many dozens of ordinary Malaysians I met whom, upon learning about the subject of my research, would share their opinions and perspectives. Thanks also to the library staff at University of Malaya and at the National Archives of Malaysia for their help in accessing material. While dissertation projects often change in the field, mine was a bit of an extreme case: I began a very different dissertation project in Indonesia that was unexpectedly cut short, forcing a change of country and project. I am grateful to all those who offered their advice and support at that time, particularly Rebakah Daro Minarchek, Johan Purnama, Annas Bentari, Ed Aspinall, and Marcus Mietzner. Diego Fossati let me stay far too long at his apartment in Singapore, and Fawziah Selamat helped rescue my belongings from Indonesia. My dissertation committee was also unfailingly supportive during this time. My project would not have been possible without external financial support. I am grateful for the funding I received from the NSEP Boren program. My research in Malaysia has also been generously funded by the Milton L. Barnett Fellowship through Cornell’s Southeast Asia Program (SEAP), which allowed me to conduct my first research trip in Malaysia in 2013, and subsequent trips. SEAP also provided support during the writing up-period. I also received support from Cornell University’s Einuadi Center and the Center for the Study of Inequality (CSI). Long before I thought of pursuing an academic career, the Fulbright ETA program provided vii my first exposure to Southeast Asia that ended up sparking a lifelong interest in the region. I'd also like to thank my family, friends, and colleagues for their support through the long graduate school process. I owe much to my Cornell friends and colleagues who I relied on throughout the research and writing process, especially Liz Acorn, Lauren Honig, Natalie Letsa, Martijn Mos, Lindsey Pruett, Delphia Shanks- Booth, and my fellow Kahin office dwellers. Beyond Cornell, Meredith Weiss generously shared her contacts and feedback throughout the project. I also enjoyed thought-provoking conversations over Kuala Lumpur street food with Elvin Ong about our shared research interests in opposition parties. Finally, thanks to the conference participants at AAS, APSA, MPSA, and the Southeast Asia Research Group (SEAREG) who offered incisive feedback that shaped the content of this dissertation. This dissertation is dedicated to all those in Malaysia who fought for change and are currently shaping its future. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS Biographical Sketch ........................................................................................................ v Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................... vi Table of Contents .......................................................................................................... ix List of Figures ................................................................................................................ xi List of Tables ................................................................................................................ xii List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................... xiii Chapter 1: Dilemmas of Opposition in Authoritarian Regimes ..................................... 1 1.1 Overview 1.2 Existing Explanations 1.3 The Argument 1.4 Research Strategy 1.5 Implications 1.6 Outline of the Dissertation Chapter 2: Opposition Party Strategies in Authoritarian Regimes ............................... 29 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Defining Opposition 2.3 Why Opposition Parties in Authoritarian Settings? 2.4 Theory 2.5 Scope Chapter 3: Evolution amid Stasis: Political Competition in Malaysia ......................... 80 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Colonial Legacies and Patterns of Communal Bargaining 3.3 Strategies of Authoritarian Legitimacy and Control, 1971-2018 3.4 Opposition Party Emergence and Profiles 3.5 The 1999 Elections and a New Electoral Environment Chapter 4: Dilemmas of Expansion: Diverging Incentives For the Opposition ........
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