ASIA PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT NO. 116 SEPTEMBER 2003 INSIDE Passing the Mantle: BRIDGET WELSH Malaysia's Transition: A New Leadership for Malaysia Elite Contestation, Political Dilemmas and Incremental Change page 4 ABSTRACT: As Prime Minister Mohamad Mahathir prepares to step down after more than two decades in power, Malaysians are both anxious and hopeful. Bridget Welsh maintains that KARIM RASLAN the political succession has ushered in an era of shifting factions and political uncertainty,as indi- New Leadership, Heavy viduals vie for position in the post-Mahathir environment. Karim Raslan discusses the strengths Expectations and weaknesses of Mahathir’s hand-picked successor,Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. He maintains that Abdullah will do well at moderating the influence of Malaysia’s more radical Islamic leaders, but page 9 doubts whether the new prime minister can live up to the excessive expectations that the polit- ical transition has engendered. M. Bakri Musa expresses hope that Abdullah will succeed where M. BAKRI MUSA (in his view) Mahathir has failed. For example, he urges the new leadership to revise Malaysia’s Post-Mahathir three-decade affirmative action policy and to tackle the problem of corruption. Malaysia: Coasting Along page 13 Introduction All three experts in this Special Report emphasize continuity.All agree that basic gov- Amy McCreedy ernmental policies will not change much; for fter more than 22 years in power, example, Abdullah Badawi’s seemingly heartfelt Malaysia’s prime minister Mohamad pledges to address corruption will probably A Mahathir is stepping down. “I was founder in implementation.The contributors to taught by my mother that when I am in the this Report do predict that Abdullah will midst of enjoying my meal, I should stop eat- improve upon Mahathir in one area: moderat- ing,”he quipped, after his closing remarks to the ing the potentially destabilizing force of reli- UMNO party annual general assembly in June. gious extremism.As they point out,Abdullah is “I’m going, Abdullah [Badawi] is replacing me, widely admired for his religious knowledge and and I’m confident the party is secure.”1 credentials, and can confront Islamic radicals (in When the transition takes place this autumn, his own quiet way) while maintaining respect the active 77-year-old leader is unlikely to van- from mainstream society.They also agree that ish completely from the scene—though he has Abdullah’s personal style—mild, incremental, promised not to follow Singapore’s Lee Kuan consensual—will differ from the fiery tone of Yew in becoming a powerful senior minister. his predecessor, and likely improve relations There was a brief point during Malaysia’s with the West. As Karim Raslan points out, largest-ever anti-government rally in September Abdullah is “difficult to hate,”and his “dullness” 1998 when comparisons to Suharto, ousted by will be a relief after Mahathir’s internationally ASIA PROGRAM popular demand, seemed more appropriate. But notorious vitriol. now—as the essays in this Special Report make Bridget Welsh of the School of Advanced clear—Mahathir feels the country is stable and International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins secure enough to transfer power to his deputy, University describes the intense uncertainty in and a smooth continuation of the status quo is Malaysian politics as the transition unfolds. expected. During the past year, factional support for key Amy McCreedy is program associate in the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Asia Program. ASIA PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT leaders within UMNO have shifted constantly.After remains robust, especially in Malaysia’s hinterland. the political transition, elites will continue jockeying Karim Raslan, a lawyer and writer in Kuala for position in the post-Mahathir environment— Lumpur, agrees with Welsh on major points,though even, for those who predict a short tenure for the he predicts more smoothness in Malaysian political new leadership, the post-Abdullah environment. affairs over the next few years. He is doubtful that The general elections (probably in April 2004) and the new government will address issues of greatest the UMNO party elections (next summer) will be concern to him professionally—judicial independ- lively. However, this contestation will take place ence and journalistic freedom. He maintains that largely behind the scenes, and will not involve mass like most other Malaysians, cosmopolitan liberals public mobilization. It is not only UMNO that is in such as he are eager to be optimistic but bound to flux,Welsh points out. Leadership transitions have be disappointed by the political transition. How can also occurred recently, or are imminent, within the government please so many diverse constituents other parties as well. On what will the success of who are eager to see the still untested Abdullah as 2 contenders be based? In the pragmatic world of “their man”? Karim sees the current ballooning of Malaysian politics, rank-and-file politicians are hope on a whole host of controversial issues as a looking to ride the coattails of leaders with rich per- major challenge for the new leadership. sonal networks who can provide them with public Karim, a frequent political commentator who is patronage and electoral security. personally acquainted with many of Malaysia’s poli- In the midst of this contestation, Abdullah cy makers, gives his impressions of where the new Badawi has his own particular challenges, the most leadership is likely to focus itself. In economic mat- important of which is living up to the high profile ters, Karim speculates that Abdullah’s team will be of his predecessor. According to Welsh, the pressure less consumed with building things and more con- to maintain growth levels on par with the Mahathir cerned with cultivating investments in infrastructure. era may well prove to be the new leader’s Achilles’ In other words, Abdullah will seek to improve heel. Economic legitimacy has taken on more Malaysia’s “software” as well as construct its “hard- importance as the regime has become more author- ware.”Karim expects to see most change in the area itarian. Meanwhile, Abdullah will also have to of religious moral leadership. As noted above, rebuild institutions such as UMNO, the bureaucra- Abdullah has religious credentials that allow him, if cy, and the judiciary.Welsh points out that he will necessary, to disagree authoritatively with the reli- have to “manage” the continued participation (or gious establishment. According to Karim, Abdullah interference) of a retired Mahathir, and help has a “deep and intuitive” understanding of the UMNO fight the challenge of an opposition that Qur’an and an admirable knack for deflating poten- tially inflammatory religious controversies with gen- tle deprecation. Karim agrees with Welsh that one of THE ASIA PROGRAM Abdullah’s biggest challenges will be measuring up to his high-profile predecessor, who has become The Wilson Center’s Asia Program is dedicated to the proposi- tion that only those with a sound scholarly grounding can begin “the yardstick by which all successive leaders will be to understand contemporary events. One of the Center’s oldest judged.” Meanwhile, the public is uncertain and regional programs, the Asia Program seeks to bring historical anxious.The last political succession determined the and cultural sensitivity to the discussion of Asia in the nation’s political landscape for nearly three decades; will this capital. In seminars, workshops, briefings, and conferences, one do the same? prominent scholars of Asia interact with one another and with policy practitioners to further understanding of the peoples, tra- The third essay in this special report, by M. ditions, and behaviors of the world’s most populous continent. Bakri Musa, poses a spirited challenge to Abdullah Badawi’s government to undertake a “major Asia Program Staff: reassessment” of policy in Malaysia. Musa, a physi- Robert M. Hathaway, Director Gang Lin, Program Associate cian in California who has written three books on Amy McCreedy, Program Associate Malaysia, is far more scathing in his appraisal of Wilson Lee, Program Assistant Mahathir than are the other two contributors to this Timothy R. Hildebrandt, Program Assistant Special Report. His essay examines Mahathir’s lega- PASSING THE MANTLE: A NEW LEADERSHIP FOR MALAYSIA cy from the perspective of “what might have been,” contributors to the Special Report maintain that thus pointing to where he thinks the new leadership NEP abuses are a major challenge for the new gov- should direct itself. ernment. Welsh points out that Abdullah will be Bakri Musa highlights the contradiction between inclined to boost efficiency by strengthening meri- the super-efficiency of Mahathir the man (who has a tocracy—but at the same time he must maintain the “Pentium V chip compared to his predecessor’s 286”) support of certain Malays who value affirmative and what Musa sees as the wasteful corruption of action as the cornerstone of their political agenda. Malaysia’s centrally directed system. In such a system, As an example of the NEP’s shortcomings, Karim entrepreneurs pitch their ideas to the leader rather Raslan cites the recent scandal of shoddily con- than testing them in the marketplace. According to structed school computer laboratories. Musa, the dynamic Mahathir has failed to nourish Over the next several years, the extent to which innovation in his team or in Malaysia at large; the Abdullah Badawi will change things will partly three most senior members in Mahathir’s cabinet depend on Mahathir’s presence. “I have already have served a collective 70 years of “sclerosis and made it very clear that when I leave, I leave com- 3 inertia.”While the economy has grown impressively pletely,” the prime minister said at a televised news over the past few decades, Musa suggests that affir- conference.2 But few believe that after more than mative action and cronyism have deprived the coun- two decades at the helm of Malaysia’s government, try of much potential for growth.