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Geopolitical Review) PRZEGL ĄD GEOPOLITYCZNY (GEOPOLITICAL REVIEW) PRZEGL ĄD GEOPOLITYCZNY (GEOPOLITICAL REVIEW) ROK ( YEAR ): 2015 TOM ( VOLUME ): 12 3 PRZEGL ĄD GEOPOLITYCZNY ( GEOPOLITICAL REVIEW ) tom 12: 2015 (vol. 12: 2015) ISSN: 2080-8836 (print) 2392-067X (online) RADA NAUKOWA ( SCIENTIFIC BOARD ) Gideon Biger (Tel Aviv University, Izrael), Georges G. Cravins (University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, USA), Bretislav Dancak (Uniwersytet Masaryka w Brnie, Czechy), Piotr Eberhardt (Polska Akademia Nauk) – przewodnicz ący Rady, Vit Hloušek (Masaryk University, Brno, Czechy), Robert Ištok (Prešovská univerzita v Prešove, Słowacja), Rustis Kamuntavi čius (Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania), Wojciech Kazanecki (Dolno śląski O środek Studiów Strategicznych), Zbigniew Lach (Akademia Obrony Narodowej), Jarosław Macała (Uniwersytet Zielonogórski), Vakhtang Maisaia (Caucasus International University, Tbilisi, Gruzja), Tadeusz Marczak (Uniwersytet Wrocławski), Kaloyan Metodyev (Uniwersytet Południowo-Zachodni, Błagojewgrad, Bułgaria), John S. Micgiel (Columbia University, USA), Leszek Moczulski (Polska Akademia Nauk), Andrzej Nowak (Uniwersytet Jagiello ński), Gayane Novikova (Center for Strategic Analysis Spectrum , Armenia), Florent Parmentier (Sciences-Po, Paris, Francja), Jakub Potulski (Uniwersytet Gda ński), Andrzej Pukszto (Vytautas Magnus University, Kowno, Litwa), Reinhard Rode (Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg, Niemcy), Julian Skrzyp (Akademia Obrony Narodowej), Shanmugam Pillai Subbiah (University of Madras, Indie), Grzegorz Tokarz (Uniwersytet Wrocławski), Jan Wendt (Uniwersytet Gda ński), Hong-Key Yoon (University of Auckland, Nowa Zelandia), Radosław Zenderowski (Uniwersytet Kardynała Stefana Wyszy ńskiego). REDAKCJA (EDITORIAL BOARD ) Redaktor naczelny ( Editor-in-Chief ): Leszek Sykulski Sekretarz redakcji ( Assistant to the Editor ): Mateusz Wili ński Redaktorzy tematyczni (Thematic Editors ) Grzegorz Baziur, Bartosz Goł ąbek, Marcin Halicki, Mateusz Hudzikowski, Katarzyna K ącka, Sławomir Krakowczyk, Tadeusz Z. Leszczy ński, Andrzej Piskozub, Mirosław Sułek, Katarzyna Szara, Piotr L. Wilczy ński, Mateusz Wili ński, Andrzej Zapałowski Redaktor statystyczny (Statistics Editor ): Beata Stachowiak Redaktorzy j ęzykowi (Linguistic Editors ) Anna Haida, Nicole MacDonald , Bethuel Matsili, Magdalena Pluskota Projekt okładki (Cover Design ): Mateusz Lomber Redakcja techniczna, korekta i adjustacja (DTP ): Instytut Geopolityki Strona internetowa, kontakt z redakcj ą (Website, contact ) www.przeglad.org, e-mail: [email protected] KWARTALNIK RECENZOWANY PEER-REVIEWED QUARTERLY JOURNAL (DOUBLE-BLIND REVIEW PROCESS ) Publikacja jest udost ępniona na licencji Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa-Użycie niekomercyjne-Bez utworów zale żnych 3.0 Polska. Pewne prawa zastrze żone na rzecz autorów. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/pl/. Wszystkie tomy czasopisma w wersji elektronicznej są w otwartym dost ępie na stronie internetowej kwartalnika. Wersj ą pierwotn ą „Przegl ądu Geopolitycznego” jest wersja elektroniczna. Czasopismo ukazuje si ę w formie elektronicznej i drukowanej pod patronatem Polskiego Towarzystwa Geopolitycznego (www.ptg.edu.pl). Wydawca, adres redakcji (Publisher, editorial adress ) INSTYTUT G EOPOLITYKI Aleja Pokoju 6/64 42-207 Cz ęstochowa http://www.geopolityka.net E-mail: [email protected] 4 SPIS TRE ŚCI I. ARTYKUŁY Dariusz Drzewiecki Bezpiecze ństwo obszarów nadbrze żnych w południowej cz ęś ci basenu Morza Bałtyckiego w oparciu o najnowszy raport IPCC (AR5) / 9 Grzegorz Baziur Idee i czyny: W ęgierska Republika Rad 1919 r. jako przykład totalitarnego re żimu rewolucyjnego / 35 Bogusław Ku źniar Dowody zbrodni nacjonalistów ukrai ńskich na ludno ści polskiej w latach 1939- 1947 oraz ich ocena w świetle prawa krajowego i mi ędzynarodowego / 59 Mateusz Hudzikowski Tybet – mi ędzy mitami a geopolityk ą / 73 Marcin Halicki Inwestycje – charakterystyka poj ęcia i podstawy rachunku inwestycyjnego / 85 Patrycja Zaj ąc Geopolityczne znaczenie Czeczeni w polityce Federacji Rosyjskiej / 95 Piotr L. Wilczy ński Wydobycie bogactw mineralnych w krajch NATO i w obszarze postsowieckim / 109 Marcin Sowi ński Functioning Conditions, Activity and Citizens’ Appraisal of the Territorial Self- government in a City with County Rights Illustrated with the Example of Przemy śl / 133 Béthuel Matsili La geopolitique ethinique et securite en Afrique / 147 Melania Ogrodniczuk The International Trade Policy in the American Political System / 159 Jacek Janusz Mrozek Przekonania religijne a prawo do prywatno ści / 173 5 II. ANALIZY I MATERIAŁY Jan Majka, Duginiada, cz ęść 2. / 187 III. RECENZJE Paweł Rojek, Przekle ństwo Imperium. Źródła rosyjskiego zachowania , Wydawnictwo M, Kraków 2014 (rec. Leszek Sykulski) / 193 Andreas Blümke, Jak inwestowa ć w produkty strukturyzowane , Wolters Kluwer, Warszawa 2013 (rec. Marcin Halicki) / 199 IV. POLEMIKI Valentin Mihailov Wyobra żona Europa i wyobra żona Sarmacja – od geologii do ideologii / 201 * * * Noty o Autorach / 217 Zasady publikowania / 219 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. ARTICLES Dariusz Drzewiecki Security of Coastal Areas in the Southern Part of the Basin of the Baltic Sea, Based on the Latest IPCC Report (AR5) / 9 Grzegorz Baziur Ideas and Actions: Hungarian Soviet Republic in 1919 as an Example of the Revolutionary Totalitarian Regime / 35 Bogusław Ku źniar Evidence of the Crimes Committed by Ukrainian Nationalists against the Polish Population in the Years 1939—1947, and Their Assessment in the Light of National and International Law / 59 Mateusz Hudzikowski Tibet – Between Myths and Geopolitics / 73 Marcin Halicki Investments – Characteristics of the Concept and Basics of an Investment Account / 85 Patrycja Zaj ąc Geopolitical Importance of Chechnya for the Russian Federation / 95 Piotr L. Wilczy ński NATO and Post-Soviet Countries Mineral Industry Production / 109 Marcin Sowi ński Functioning Conditions, Activity and Citizens’ Appraisal of the Territorial Self- government in a City with County Rights Illustrated with the Example of Przemy śl / 133 Béthuel Matsili Ethnic geopolitics and security of Africa / 147 Melania Ogrodniczuk The International Trade Policy in the American Political System / 159 II. ANALYSIS&MATERIALS Jan Majka, Duginiada, Part 2. / 173 7 III. REVIEWS Paweł Rojek, Przekle ństwo Imperium. Źródła rosyjskiego zachowania , Wydawnictwo M, Kraków 2014 (rev. Leszek Sykulski) / 179 Andreas Blümke, Jak inwestowa ć w produkty strukturyzowane , Wolters Kluwer, Warszawa 2013 (rev. Marcin Halicki) / 185 IV. POLEMICS Valentin Mihailov Imagined Europe and imagined Sarmatia – from geology to ideology / 187 * * * Contributors / 203 Guidelines for Authors / 205 8 I. ARTYKUŁY (ARTICLES ) „PRZEGL Ą D GEOPOLITYCZNY” 2015: 12 Dariusz DRZEWIECKI Akademia Obrony Narodowej w Warszawie BEZPIECZE ŃSTWO OBSZARÓW NADBRZE ŻNYCH W POŁUDNIOWEJ CZ ĘŚ CI BASENU MORZA BAŁTYCKIEGO W OPARCIU O NAJNOWSZY RAPORT IPCC (AR5) Abstrakt W publikacji zaprezentowano w formie graficznej symulacj ą procesów zwi ązanych z globalnym ociepleniem klimatu na Ziemi w odniesieniu do zmian linii brzegowej południowej cz ęś ci Bałtyku. Dane potrzebne do prezentacji symulacji zmian zaczerpni ęto z najnowszego raportu IPCC wykorzystano dane pomiarowe pozyskane z NOAA (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. National Climatic Data Center), dotycz ące wyników pomiaru temperatury w skali globalnej za lata 1900 – 2013. Prognoz ę wzrostu temperatury globalnej Ziemi opracowano na podstawie danych pozyskanych z o śmiu reprezentatywnych o środków naukowych, które zestawiono na jednym wykresie, umo żliwiaj ąc charakterystyk ę porównawcz ą tych prognoz. Na podstawie uzyskanych prognoz wzrostu poziomu wód, zaprezentowano charakterystyk ę porównawcz ą obszarów zagro żonych zalaniem w pa ństwach południowej cz ęś ci basenu Morza Bałtyckiego. Form ę graficzn ą zestawiono w dwóch postaciach, stan obecny oraz symulacj ę tych samych obszarów w razie podniesienia si ę wód do 1m – wariant optymistyczny. Słowa kluczowe : globalne ocieplenie klimatu, Bałtyk południowy, pogoda, raport IPCC, emisja CO2, źródła energii. Wprowadzenie Zjawiska wywołane działaniem sił natury determinuj ą nasze poczucie bezpiecze ństwa. Jednym z czynników wpływaj ących na intensyfikacj ę 9 niebezpiecznych zjawisk pogody jest globalny wzrost temperatury. Gwałtowny wzrost dynamiki tego parametru obserwujemy od połowy XX wieku. Wpływa on na intensyfikacj ę ekstremalnych zjawiska przyrodniczych w tym wyst ępowanie kl ęsk żywiołowych. Jednym ze zjawisk, które s ą uto żsamiane z globalnym ociepleniem jest wzrost poziomu wód na świecie. Jako główn ą przyczyn ę tego procesu uznawano topnienie warstwy lodowców. Istot ą problemu zwi ązanego z globalnym wzrostem temperatury jest ustalenie w jakim stopniu wpływ na to zjawisko ma działalno ść człowieka a w jakim procesy naturalne. Wyja śnieniem skali procesów antropogenicznych wpływaj ących na wzrost koncentracji gazów cieplarnianych zajmuje si ę Mi ędzyrz ądowy Zespół ds. Zmian Klimatu IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), publikuj ąc swoje opracowania w cyklicznych raportach. Pierwszy z nich ukazał sie w 1990 roku (w 1992 wydano suplement). Kolejne ukazywały si ę w latach: 1995, 2001 i 2007 – najnowszy ukazał si ę 31 marca 2014 roku. Źródła danych i metodyka ich analizy W trakcie przygotowania publikacji oprócz informacji zaczerpni ętych z najnowszego raportu IPCC wykorzystano dane pomiarowe pozyskane z NOAA (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. National Climatic
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