Qr. 1. 2018 No. 4 ISSN 2543-9839 Berlin, Germany, February 16, 2018

Home , Battle of Warsaw (1831), Battle of Warsaw (1920), Estonian passport, Ignacy Jan Paderewski, Julia Pitera, Matylda Getter

qr. 1. 2018 no. 4 ISSN 2543-9839 Berlin, Germany, February 16, 2018. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki lays a wreath at the Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe in Berlin.

Dear Readers

he culture of every nation, its content and expression, although experienced in the present, always arises on the foundation of the past. It creates a certain space, Tchronologically arranged since the nation was founded, and successive layers and elements usher in new ages. Its role is not just to integrate society and build community in a time of peace; cultivating its values determines and ensures the survival of the nation in difficult times. This was well understood by the Polish elites of the 18th and 19th centuries, when the Polish state, as a result of the partitions and division of its territory between Russia, Prussia and Austria, lost its independence for 123 years. The opening of the latest issue of The Warsaw Institute Review is devoted to this subject in an article by the Deputy Prime Minister of Poland and Minister of Culture and National Heritage Piotr Gliński and Paulina Florjanowicz, regarding Izabela Czartoryska’s conservation of museum collections in the Arkadia and Nieborów palaces. But the Polish national community is built not only by history, but also by sport – it is thus no accident that in this edition of WIR we present an article by the famous Polish cyclist Czesław Lang devoted to the Tour de Pologne.

I want to direct your attention to the article by Tomasz Poręba, Member of the European Parliament, concerning the construction of the planned route connecting the north and south of Europe. It is a project that is not only an infrastructural challenge for the countries involved, but above all, opens up the prospect of building a new

1/2018 3 Editorial

axis of economic relations – alongside those traditionally functioning on the east-west line. The Warsaw I also encourage you to read our eastern report. Institute Traditionally, we devote a lot of space to Russia and its influence on the most important countries in this part Review of Europe: this time on the infiltration of Estonia by the Russian intelligence services and corruption in Ukraine. © Copyright 2018 The Warsaw Institute We are also expanding our geographical scope to a further Foundation Warsaw, Poland extent, through articles on the dynamically developing Kazakhstan (often referred to by Polish historians as the “inhuman land” – the place of deportation for a large Editor-in-Chief Anna Karolina Piekarska number of Poles by the authorities of the USSR), [email protected] as well as Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Associate editor and translations You are invited to read! Nicholas Siekierski

Copy Editing and Proofreading Andrew Tuson Anna Karolina Piekarska Cover and Layout Editor-in-Chief The Warsaw Institute Review Katarzyna Dinwebel Jacek Kotela

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Publisher The Warsaw Institute Foundation Wilcza 9, 00-538 Warsaw, Poland www.WarsawInstitute.org [email protected] Public purpose co-financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in the competition “Cooperation in the Field of Public Diplomacy 2018”. Editorial office The Warsaw Institute Review Wilcza 9 00-538 Warsaw, Poland www.WarsawInstitute.Review

Ministry The opinions given and the positions of Foreign Aﬀ airs held in the materials published in the Republic of Poland Warsaw Institute Review solely reflect the views of the authors and cannot be equated with the official position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Partner: of the Republic of Poland. ISSN 2543-9839

4 The Warsaw Institute Review Contents

ECONOMY12 EASTERN58 REPORT HISTORY89 Tomasz Poręba: Piotr Kościński Nicholas Siekierski: Via Carpathia Kazakhstan: An “Inhuman American Relief and – An Investment Land” Increasingly Human Poland’s Independence in the Future

CULTURE Piotr Kościński Piotr Gliński, Paulina Kazakhstan: An “Inhuman Florjanowicz, 58 Land” Increasingly Human Heritage Strengthens Our 7 Identity Marcin Orłowski The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ECONOMY 66 and the Future of Jihadism Tomasz Poręba Via Carpathia - An Investment OPINIONS 12 in the Future Cezary Kaźmierczak The Polish Economy – EASTERN REPORT 75 Challenges and Outlook

Grzegorz Kuczyński SPORT 20 “Peacemaker” Putin Czesław Lang The Race that Started Ksawery Czerniewicz 82 in Dreams Iran: Protest of the 29 Doubly Cheated HISTORY Nicholas Siekierski Aleksandra Romanowska American Relief Ukraine: Freedom in the 89 and Poland’s Independence 38 Shadow of Corruption Bogusław Kopka Grzegorz Kuczyński Paweł Kosiński 45 Estonian Spy Hunters 101 Poland: First to Fight

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Nieborów, Poland. An unknown Polish painter, Portrait of Izabela Fleming-CzartoryskA, late 18th century, collections of the Museum in Nieborów and Arkadia.

© Irena Jarosińska (PAP) Heritage Strengthens Our IdentitY Piotr Gliński phd, Paulina Florjanowicz In modern times, protecting cultural heritage has been a central component of almost any government’s policy. Heritage, which comprises the material evidence of a common past and shared experience, supports the building of a sense of community as well as self-confidence within society which is directly linked with strong social capital.

he perception of heritage legal regulations accordingly. Today, it is as a crucial element for widely agreed worldwide that protecting a society’s development has national heritage is one of a state’s recently become fashionable indisputable obligations. Tin EU policies. For decades previously, heritage was mainly protected due to its However, in the case of Poland, such aesthetic and/or historic value. However protection has been difficult, particularly the whole idea of protecting heritage was because the state did not exist in the 19th actually developed in the late 18th and century, after it had been partitioned 19th centuries at a time when states were by its neighbors (Russia, Austria and developing rapidly towards how we know Prussia) in 1795. Poland remained divided them today. It was during this period that among the three states until it regained many European states decided to protect its independence after World War I in their heritage and develop policies and 1918. During the 123 years of partitions,

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Vinci, Landscape with the Good Samaritan by Rembrandt, Polonia by Jan Matejko, as After Poland lost its well as prints by Albrecht Dürer. It consists of more than 86,000 museum objects such independence in 1795, as the memorabilia of Tadeusz Kościuszko to many Polish nobles, or Frédéric Chopin’s death mask, as well as over 250,000 library items including the need to protect books, old prints and manuscripts, as well national heritage seemed as priceless treasures of Polish national heritage like the Act of the Polish- to be the most effective -Lithuanian Union of Horodło (1413), the Act of Prussian Homage (1525) way of maintaining and 15th century manuscripts of the national identity. Chronicles by Jan Długosz. Throughout the last two centuries, Polish heritage was deliberately neglected the Czartoryska Collection has survived by the occupying authorities and unlike in some of the most turbulent times in other European states, the legal system for Poland’s history. The collection was heritage protection was unable to develop; hidden and evacuated several times. not to mention that Poland was under It was looted and taken as a trophy. It was the rule of three different jurisdictions. searched for and rescued. It was also cared Nevertheless, heritage protection remained for and exhibited, something of which a priority for the populous despite – or Polish society has always been possibly because of – Poland not having proud and identified themselves with. its own government. This does not mean Finally, as Poland prepares to celebrate though, that heritage was unprotected. On the centenary of regaining independence the contrary! National heritage remained in 2018, the Polish government has (or became!) a priority even (or especially!) purchased the collection from Prince when the government ceased to exist. Adam Karol Czartoryski and the Princess Czartoryska Foundation, along with all Izabela Fleming-Czartoryska related real estate, as well as the right and the Museum in Puławy to all claims on movable cultural goods After Poland lost its independence in included in the collection, which 1795, to many Polish nobles, the need to were lost during World War II. protect national heritage seemed to be the The efforts of the Polish government have most effective way of maintaining national gained widespread support, from both the identity. One of the most prominent Parliament, which passed an amendment examples of this effort is the Princess to the 2016 budget to allow the creation Czartoryska Collection of the early 1800s, of a special reserve fund for the purchase assembled by Princess Izabela Fleming- of cultural goods of significant importance, -Czartoryska, who created the first Polish and museum curators – members of the museum in Puławy. She explained the Council of Museum and Remembrance purpose of doing it thus: “as Poland ceased Sites advising the Minister of Culture and to exist (...) I began to collect Polish National Heritage, along with art history souvenirs for posterity”. and cultural heritage experts nationwide. The breathtaking Czartoryska Collection includes thousands of paintings by some of Why? the world’s most famous artists, including Naturally, the rationale behind protecting the Lady with an Ermine by Leonardo da cultural heritage is often questioned. Why

8 The Warsaw Institute Review Heritage Strengthens Our Identit

© (PAP) Radek Pietruszka Warsaw, Poland, October 25, 2017. Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Culture and National Heritage Piotr Gliński during a session of the Parliament Committee on Culture and Media in the Chancellery of the Prime Minister of Poland.

is it so important? For decades, heritage building. It does not require the decision- professionals have intensively focused on -making process to be shared by all how to protect cultural heritage, without stakeholders, but it does prioritize public giving much consideration to why. benefit and public interest. The Council of Europe’s Framework Convention on the Value of Cultural Heritage for Society (known as the Faro Convention of 2005) called on all parties “to recognize the public interest associated A strong link between with elements of cultural heritage in cultural heritage and accordance with their importance to society.” The public benefit of cultural national identity was heritage has been recently acknowledged revealed with 62 percent in numerous EU policy statements including the Council’s conclusions on of respondents declaring the participatory governance of cultural heritage in 2014, which recognized that they think cultural cultural heritage as a shared resource. heritage is important Participatory governance of cultural heritage is therefore the best approach for because it is the the future, as it divides the responsibility for the protection of cultural heritage, but testimony of Poland’s also strengthens the process of identity common past.

1/2018 9 Culture © Maciej Musiał (PAP) Warsaw, Poland, 1987. Napoleon Orda (1807–1883), Palace in Puławy. Exhibition: “Architecture in Polish Painting” at the National Museum.

In Poland, the social value of cultural different beliefs and traditions. Therefore, heritage has only recently been properly being Polish does not necessarily mean researched. The National Heritage being part of a specific religion or ethnicity. Board of Poland (Narodowy Instytut In a way, Polish national identity is similar to Dziedzictwa) commissioned a study in that of the Americans, who trace their roots 2012, where for the first time, Poles were back to many different parts of the world. asked a fundamental question: is heritage Even today, despite the barbarism of World important to society? An overwhelming War II and the Nazi German and Soviet majority (89 percent) of respondents occupations and decades of communism said “yes”. Another question in the study that followed, creating a rather homogenous referred to the key values of heritage. society in modern Poland, it is still possible A strong link between cultural heritage to perceive it as a multi-ethnic nation. and national identity was revealed with In a public survey conducted in 2006, 62 percent of respondents declaring that a question was asked about the conditions they think cultural heritage is important a person must meet to be considered Polish because it is the testimony of Poland’s by other Poles. The most frequently chosen common past. answer (69 percent) was that he or she must The term “national identity” requires feel Polish himself/herself. This reflects the further explanation in the case of Poland. openness of Polish society and the ease with Its identity, given its complicated and often which people can assimilate into it. dramatic history as well as its geographic Overall, one can clearly see that location, is built on the multicultural a participatory approach to cultural heritage of many nations comprising heritage is not just a trend but should

10 The Warsaw Institute Review Heritage Strengthens Our Identity be a natural option for all countries, civil society development, but should also particularly those with such complex promote at least one of the three core values histories and historical assets as Poland. that are recognized as most important for Poland’s national identity, namely The Niepodległa Program the pursuit of freedom, respect for human This approach was also reflected in a social dignity and human rights, and solidarity survey commissioned by the Ministry of in both a social and political sense. Culture and National Heritage in 2016, The program promotes inclusive actions, which aimed to determine how to design community building and the rediscovering a program to mark the centenary of of cultural heritage at the local, Poland’s independence, in a way that would regional and national levels. maximize the public benefit. The survey The expected effect of the Niepodległa confirmed, among other things, that, Program is a stronger civil society, aware according to respondents (a representative of its rights and responsibilities, and proud sampling of Polish society), cultural of its history and heritage, just as Princess heritage is crucial in this process, Czartoryska envisioned. as it is one of the primary factors in community building. Piotr Gliński, Paulina Florjanowicz According to the survey, respondents February 20, 2018 claimed that patriotism entails the following: respecting national symbols (sixty percent strongly agree, thirty-four Bibliography: percent agree); passing on national values Council of Europe 2005: Framework Convention to future generations (forty-nine percent on the Value of Cultural Heritage for Society. strongly agree, forty-three percent agree); European Treaty Series 199. Council of Europe, protecting heritage sites (forty-four percent Strasbourg. strongly agree, forty-seven percent agree); and fostering local customs and traditions, EU Council conclusions on participatory thus protecting intangible cultural heritage governance of cultural heritage, http://data. (forty-two percent strongly agree, forty- consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-15320- -eight percent agree). Once again, a strong 2014-INIT/en/pdf (accessed August 1, 2017). link between cultural heritage and national identity is revealed and this is obviously Niepodległa. Poland. The Centenary of Regaining one of the key elements to strengthening Independence, www.niepodlegla.gov.pl (accessed the social capital of Poles. August 1, 2017). Therefore, since the main aim of the Niepodległa (“Independent” program for Raport Niepodległa http://www.nck. the Centenary of Regaining Independence pl/badania/318315-raport-z-badania- by Poland) is to build a strong civic society, zrealizowanego-na-potrzeby-wieloletniego- many of the projects refer to both tangible programu-rzadowego-niepodlegla/ (accessed and intangible heritage, and promote a August 2, 2017). participatory approach. The program is not about major development and investment Społeczno-gospodarcze oddziaływanie projects but rather about inclusive dziedzictwa. Raport z badań społecznych http:// educational projects that bring rich cultural www.nid.pl/upload/iblock/472/472e646a7a6f116c heritage closer to the community. b09105f922695509.pdf (accessed August 2, 2017). Projects financed within the Niepodległa Program (the total budget exceeds $60 Zamoyski, A. 2001: The Princess Czartoryska million) must be focused not only on Museum. A history of the collections.

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Via Carpathia – An Investment in the Future Tomasz Poręba Just a few years ago, knowledge of the Via Carpathia (a north-south, trans-European road route) was a minimal, if not an entirely foreign concept in Brussels.

his project was not recognized Let us start from the beginning. The as a major international idea of creating the Via Carpathia investment nor was it treated route was initiated by Poland in 2006 as a priority. The Via Carpathia in Łańcut, when ministers from Tdid not exist in the imaginations Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and of the “Brussels elite”. Over years Hungary, under the patronage and in of consistent (even arduous) work, the presence of the President of the pressure and commitment at many Republic of Poland Lech Kaczyński, decision-making levels, the perception signed the first joint Łańcut Declaration of this project was radically changed on the extension of TEN-T (Trans- as was the attitude of the European -European Transport Networks) through Commission towards it. Through small the Via Carpathia. In 2010, three steps in the absence of support from the more countries joined this initiative: then-current Civic Platform government, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. and even in the face of frequent and During an international conference, ostentatious opposition, the Via the transportation ministers of seven Carpathia was successfully elevated countries through which the route runs to an entirely new level of importance. signed a new version of the Łańcut

12 The Warsaw Institute Review Via Carpathia – An Investment in the Future

Brussels, Belgium, September 29, 2015. Member of European © Wiktor Dabkowski (PAP) Parliament (MEP) Tomasz Poręba in front of the European Parliament headquarters.

Declaration in which they pledged to In Poland, the route will cover nearly take all possible steps to incorporate the 700 kilometers and run along the S8 and route along its entire length (Klaipeda – S19 roads, and run from the border with Kaunas – Białystok – Lublin – Rzeszów Lithuania in Budzisko, through Białystok, – Kosice – Miskolc – Debrecen – Oradea Lublin and Rzeszów, to the border with – Logoj – Calafat/Constanta – Sofia/ Slovakia in Barwinek. Its Subcarpathian Svilengrad – Thessaloniki) to the TEN-T segment is the S19 expressway. network as part of the amendment of In October 2011, after completing the EU law on trans-European transport two-year consultations with member networks. The last declaration on states, including Poland, the European strengthening cooperation in the area of Commission published the “Union transport through the Carpathians and Guidelines for the Development of the further development of the Via Carpathia Trans-European Transport Network”. was signed in March 2016. Unfortunately, sections of the Via

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accounted for most of the road segments The Via Carpathia within the core network. The Via Carpathia needed immediate needed immediate and effective lobbying within the EU, so to popularize the idea and to show its and effective lobbying added value to the Union’s entire eastern within the EU, so to flank. Hence my commitment and attempt to use all possible instruments available popularize the idea to members of the European Parliament, to raise awareness among colleagues from and to show its added other member states, as well as the officials of the European Commission and to value to the Union’s finally put this investment into a leading entire eastern flank. place on the EU agenda. Carpathia were only partially accounted That is why in November 2011, when for in the core TEN-T network, to be the European Parliament started work on completed by 2050, with no real guarantee the future shape of the TEN-T, I submitted of funds being secured for construction. five amendments calling for the inclusion After two years of negotiations, the Via of the Via Carpathia route along the entire Carpathia was also omitted from the list core network (Civic Platform members of investment priorities for the TEN-T did not submit any amendments on this network in the final version matter at the transport committee level). of the 2013 regulation. In October 2012, I organized a conference in the European Parliament in support From the moment the Łańcut Declarations of the Via Carpathia with the were signed in 2006 and 2010, the Civic participation of transportation ministers, Platform government did not make any representatives of regions through which effort to make the Via Carpathia eligible the route runs, ambassadors, MEPs, for funding under the EU budget; nor did experts and European Commission they take advantage of the opportunity representatives (despite the request offered by the amendment of the for support of the initiative – neither trans-European transport network representatives of the Polish government, regulations, which determined the most nor Civic Platform MEPs, appeared). important EU transport priorities for implementation by 2023. In 2010, the Civic In June 2013, I again submitted Platform government submitted amendments regarding the Via Carpathia, a funding proposal for only one section this time during a plenary session. of the S19 road on the Rzeszów–Lublin In June 2014, at my initiative, the route, which was included with the European Parliament decided to deal core network projects. The remaining with the issue of construction of the Via sections were written into the so-called Carpathia and to consider a petition supplementary network to be completed by from one of the residents of Stalowa 2050, with no guaranteed funds or budget Wola, Poland. The petition made it to the allocation. The regulation amendment was European Commission, which said that successfully taken advantage of by other it was possible to build a road with EU countries along the Via Carpathia, such funds, but the Polish government should as Romania, Bulgaria and Greece, which take the lead on the initiative.

14 The Warsaw Institute Review Via Carpathia – An Investment in the Future

Via K Carpathia K

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S S

As the referrer and defender of the that Subcarpathia is one of the best petition, I persuaded the Petitions financed regions in Poland and questioned Committee to address this matter. the validity of the investment. As a result, the parliament intended to send a special mission to the Subcarpathia As vice-chairman of the European region to prepare a report to the European Parliament’s Commission on Transport Parliament on the state of the S19 road. and Tourism, I also promoted the idea Unfortunately, at the request of MEPs of building the Via Carpathia on of the Civic Platform, the Petitions the forum of my committee. And so, Committee decided to close the Via on my initiative, in December 2014, Carpathia petition. Poles themselves a hearing on transportation routes in blocked a valuable initiative to build a Central and Eastern Europe was held. road which would improve transportation The purpose of the hearing was to show access to our country. Civic Platform the need to increase the quantity and MEPs (Julia Pitera and Jarosław Wałęsa) quality of transport connections in this stated that nothing could be done in this part of Europe, and that infrastructure case and appealed for the petition to be improvement and construction of closed once and for all. They also stressed the Via Carpathia would serve as an

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preparation of appropriate and convincing documentation and the financial One of the foundations framework for this investment. In the meantime, my appeals to (then) Deputy of the EU is sustainable Prime Minister Elżbieta Bieńkowska, development and Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz and Minister of Infrastructure and Development Maria therefore the European Wasiak, about submitting the Via Carpathia project to realization under community should the new EU Infrastructure Investment Plan of the Jean-Claude Juncker, President take care of its poorest of the European Commission, remained unanswered. Brussels gave a clear signal regions first and that tools exist to finance this investment. foremost. All that was necessary was for the Polish government to submit the project to bids. important incentive for the development of these areas, which would be a kind of Eastern Poland was consistently ignored transportation backbone of Central and by the Civic Platform government for Eastern Europe. One of the foundations EU-funded transportation investments. of the EU is sustainable development It was clear that the government and therefore the European community stubbornly sought to marginalize should take care of its poorest regions first eastern Poland and continued the policy and foremost. The hearing was aimed at of neglecting those regions. Civic showing the Polish government that this Platform-Polish People’s Party coalition project is in line with the EU’s cohesion government sought to concentrate policy and has a chance to be implemented development around several major in the coming years, if the Polish metropolitan centers, located mainly authorities have the will. in western Poland, through access to EU funding and the implementation I also tried to convince multiple EU of key projects. The rest of the country transportation policy and cohesion policy was to be condemned to the peripheries. commissioners to the absolute necessity This approach contradicted one of the to build the Via Carpathia route. Starting main principles of the EU – sustainable with Siim Kallas, European Commissioner development – and the spending of EU for Transport Policy (2009–2014), and funds to equalize the differences between Maros Šefčovič, Vice-President of the regions, not deepen them. Unfortunately, European Commission to Violeta Bulc, the eight-year rule of the previous coalition the current European Commissioner for was largely lost time for the infrastructural Transport and Corina Cretu, European development of eastern Poland. Commissioner for Regional Policy. I must honestly admit that the need for In time, however, our efforts began the implementation of the Via Carpathia to bring visible results, and the idea project found much more understanding of building the Via Carpathia was in Brussels than back home. One reflected in official documents of the commissioner after another was looking European Parliament. In the end, it for solutions and budget possibilities was possible to imbue the irreversible opening the way to the construction necessity to implement this investment of the Via Carpathia, suggesting the into the consciousness of the EU

16 The Warsaw Institute Review Via Carpathia – An Investment in the Future institutions. And so, on my initiative, for I also initiated in the European Parliament the first time in an official document of the the collection of signatures under a written European Parliament, the need to build declaration on the construction of the the Via Carpathia route was recognized. Via Carpathia. The Declaration on Via The Parliament’s Regional Development Carpathia stresses that the route plays Committee adopted an opinion an important role in stimulating growth underlining the need to develop North- in the eastern regions of the Union, -South transport corridors on the example which often experience socio-economic of the Via Carpathia to better connect problems. Its construction, renovation the northern and southern parts of the and extension would allow for the continent, which would help to reduce reduction of differences in the level of development disparities between regions. development between EU regions, by supporting new jobs and competitiveness. The European Parliament also adopted The investment would also strengthen my report on transport infrastructure economic and social relations with in Central and Eastern Europe. neighboring EU countries, especially in This is the first comprehensive document the context of the future EU enlargement devoted entirely to the development to the East. In the declaration, we call of infrastructure in this region. on the European Commission to reflect The report included a call to the on the role of Via Carpathia in a holistic European Commission and member transport policy and to include it in the states to address the urgent need TEN-T core network and thus facilitate to strengthen road infrastructure along access to funds. the EU’s eastern border, including the construction of the Via Carpathia as soon Meanwhile, a change of government was as possible. needed in our country for eastern Poland to finally be treated fairly in terms of EU The Parliament has accepted the investments. The elections won in 2015 by arguments that through the Via Law and Justice brought about landmark Carpathia, the EU’s peripheral regions will gain the opportunity for accelerated development and will more quickly match the more developed areas of the The construction Union. The construction of the route will also stimulate the inflow of investments, of the route will also increase entrepreneurship and improve the security of the entire EU, especially stimulate the inflow in the context of the armed conflict in Ukraine. In the report, the Parliament of investments, increase encourages member states to prepare entrepreneurship and a financial framework for this project using all possible instruments, such improve the security as the Connecting Europe Facility or the European Fund for Strategic of the entire EU, Investments, and promises in the next revision of the TEN-T guidelines especially in the context to do its utmost to ensure that the Via Carpathia route has been fully of the armed conflict integrated into the core network. in Ukraine.

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decisions regarding the financing of the the need to finance road investments in construction of the Polish section of Via eastern Poland, especially the construction Carpathia along the S19 road. The S19 has of the Via Carpathia, to which the become a strategic transport investment government will allocate 21 billion PLN. for the Polish government. Tenders for the construction of a road towards Lublin were I have no doubt that nothing will stop announced, a part of the Lublin beltway the construction of Via Carpathia now. along the S19 road was opened, the second The project is supported today by the stage of the tender for the Stalowa Wola majority of countries in the eastern EU. The and Niska beltways and the Janowskie- construction of this road will mean not only -Nisko Forest section have started. At the the improvement of transport accessibility same time, the funds for S19 to Babica were to eastern Poland, but also an acceleration guaranteed, and a positive environmental in the development of the eastern flank of decision was issued for the construction the EU, including the inflow of investments, of the entire Rzeszów-Barwinek section. improvement in security and growth of Furthermore in December 2016, the entrepreneurship. The Via Carpathia is also government awarded nearly 70 million an opportunity for Polish ports. The route, PLN for hydrological and geological works which in Poland will run from Barwinek on this route. In June 2017, the Council of through Rzeszów to Lublin, then along Ministers adopted a resolution in which the S17 route to Warsaw, and from the the financial limit of the National Road capital via S7 and A1 to Polish ports, will Construction Program for the years 2014– allow Hungarians, Romanians, Slovaks –2023 (with a perspective up to 2025) was and Bulgarians to send goods and services raised from 107 billion to 135 billion PLN. to ports in Poland, contributing to their The increase in funds is mainly caused by development. The Special Economic Zone © Leszek Szymański (PAP) Warsaw, Poland, March 3, 2016. Signed declaration on further cooperation in the development of the Via Carpathia corridor, in the Ministry of Infrastructure. The Via Carpathia will aid in the development of Central and Eastern Europe.

18 The Warsaw Institute Review Via Carpathia – An Investment in the Future

EURO-PARK MIELEC is also located along the Via Carpathia. The new route will be an important support for enterprises operating Transportation is an in the zone. indispensable element The Via Carpathia, due to its course, is particularly important for all the provinces of critical infrastructure, of eastern Poland and provides an opportunity to accelerate the development a guarantor of state of this part of the country. Roads S8 and S19 are a key element conducive to increasing security. the transport accessibility of the eastern part of Poland, both nationally and within eastern and western regions of Europe. the EU, and are conducive to its economic Today eastern Poland is a blank space on growth. the continent’s transportation map.

The basic problem of eastern Poland is Finally there is still a chance to realize the very low level of economic, social and the Via Carpathia. According to the territorial cohesion. For this reason, projects provisions of Article 54 of the European increasing the territorial accessibility Parliament’s decree and EU Council of this area can definitely contribute to Regulation 1315/2013, the next review strengthening the competitiveness of of the development of the TEN-T will the entire region. The improvement of be carried out by December 31, 2023, transport accessibility will significantly when the European Commission, after increase economic investment, which will consulting the member states and contribute to the intensification of the European coordinators, will verify economic development of this area. the level of implementation of the transportation network. As part of this Transportation infrastructure is the process, an assessment will be made of basis for the functioning of the economy the need to introduce changes to the and its development should be shaped above regulation and the core network with particular concern for modernity itself. The sections of the Via Carpathia and efficiency. Transportation is project should be submitted by Poland an indispensable element of critical and other interested member states as infrastructure, a guarantor of state security. parts of the TEN-T core network, before By this definition, the Via Carpathia takes the European Commission issues its on new meaning for the security of the statement, so that the entire route is entire EU. The construction of the S19 road an integral part of future maps from also takes on special significance in the the outset. To this end, the coalition of context of the armed conflict in Ukraine. signatories to the March 2016 declaration Well-connected eastern regions of our should be utilized and the European country, thanks to a highly developed Commission should be presented with transportation infrastructure, will a common case that will convince the undoubtedly increase Poland’s security. European Commission to requalify from supplementary to integral these sections The construction of the S19 road also fits of the Via Carpathia. in with the logic of the functioning of the EU, whose main objective is to equalize Tomasz Poręba development opportunities between the February 20, 2018

1/2018 19 Eastern Report

“Peacemaker” Putin Grzegorz Kuczyński

Russia is interested in suspending the conflict in the Donbass region, at least until the presidential election in March 2018. In the long term, their optimal outcome is to repeat the “Moldova scenario” in Ukraine.

uccessive proposals from Moscow Ukraine, Russia cannot be a superpower. serve this purpose. History teaches Since Ukraine regained independence us that Russia should not be in 1991, Moscow has never been as far believed under any circumstances. from this objective as it is now. The price SIn the words of the Ukrainian President of tearing away part of Ukraine’s territory Petro Poroshenko – with Moscow you (the annexation of Crimea and occupation must always be prepared for the worst. of one-third of the Donbass) has been Any Kremlin initiative, even those that the loss of influence over Kiev. It is not at first seem peaceful, should be treated important for Russia to directly control with extreme suspicion. Russia’s strategic a smaller or greater part of Ukraine, goal is to keep Ukraine in its sphere if it means that at the same time the vast of influence. The old geopolitical maxim majority of the country, together with in this part of Europe says that without its capital, gravitates towards the West.

20 The Warsaw Institute Review Chisinau, Moldova, November 19, 2017. The President of “Peacemaker” Putin Moldova and former leader “Peacemaker” Putin of the Socialist Party Igor Dodon, speaks to the press at a polling station after voting in a local referendum over the resignation of the city’s mayor Dorin Chirtoacă.

The Kremlin can implement one of several possible strategies towards Ukraine. War Russia’s strategic goal is is unrealistic, as it would lead to new sanctions from the European Union to keep Ukraine in its and even worse relations with the United States. The scenario of Russia’s complete sphere of influence. exit from the Donbass seems equally unlikely. It would be seen as a capitulation pro-Russian President Igor Dodon. and Vladimir Putin cannot show weakness Residents of the Russified and pro- in this matter, especially in Russia, where Russian region, over which the Moldovan the reception of this fact would be more government has no real influence, have important than internationally. The third a real impact on the political course of strategy is to maintain the status quo. Moldova, in exchange for the illusory, In the long run, this would not be worth formal attachment to the country it for Russia. Even if they were playing (unfortunately, some of Moldova’s political the waiting game before, thinking that elites agreed to this). in a matter of months, or one or two years at most, there would be a serious crisis The implementation of the political in the new Ukrainian government, they component of the Minsk agreements are now convinced that time is in Kiev’s would mean the creation of such a favor, not Moscow’s. situation in Ukraine. Residents of the region beyond Kiev’s control, moreover It seems most likely that Putin will seek under the control of Ukraine’s enemy, to recreate the “Moldova scenario”. Voters would be able to vote for not only from Transnistria, a region that rebelled in district officials, but also deputies of the the early nineties against the authorities in Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament). Chisinau and broke off from Moldova after The creation of a strong, pro-Moscow a bloody conflict, effectively became lobby will lead to attempts to block a Russian exclave, and helped to elect reforms and derail the pro-Western

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course of Ukraine’s foreign and security various offers, but recent months have policy. Grinding Ukraine’s progress to a clearly shown that Putin will not be able to halt halfway between the times of ousted play the “American card” against Ukraine. President Yanukovych’s “neutrality” and oligarchization, and increasing If there were any illusions, they should Europeanization, will essentially mean have been dispelled by the nomination a retreat and return to a “grey zone”, in of the new Ambassador of the United reality to Moscow’s sphere of influence. States to Russia, Jon Huntsman Jr., and the appointment of Kurt Volker as the U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine. Upon taking the position, Huntsman After a year into announced that the first step in the normalization of Russian-Ukrainian Trump’s presidency, relations should be to return control over the internationally recognized borders however, it must of Ukraine back to Kiev. “This is an issue not only with the United States, but be stressed that the also with Europe, Canada and virtually every other developed country,” said Russians have been Huntsman. On August 24, during a visit to Kiev, United States Secretary of Defense, very disappointed James Mattis, said that the U.S. will continue to provide assistance to Ukraine with the attitude of the and that the possibility of transferring offensive weaponry to Ukraine was new administration being considered. He also said that after discussions with Ukrainian partners he regarding Ukraine. would draw up “specific recommendations in this matter”. On September 5, Russian The problem is that, from the start, Kiev President Vladimir Putin responded, was in no rush to make the changes called “Such a decision will not change the for in the Minsk agreements. The Russians situation, but the number of victims have therefore adopted the strategy may increase,” warning against sending of portraying Ukraine as thwarting the American weapons to Ukraine. peace plan and urged the West to exert pressure on Kiev to implement the Minsk Furthermore, the U.S. position on the resolutions more quickly, for instance by conflict between Russia and Ukraine was granting special status to the Donbass. re-emphasized during Rex Tillerson’s That was not very effective – until Donald visit to Europe in December. In Vienna, Trump’s election victory. Moscow was at the conference of the Organization convinced that it would now be possible to for Security and Cooperation in Europe conclude an agreement with Washington (OSCE), the U.S. Secretary of State about Ukraine, to make a “geopolitical declared: “We will never accept Russia’s deal”. After a year into Trump’s presidency, occupation and attempted annexation of however, it must be stressed that the Crimea. Crimea-related sanctions will Russians have been very disappointed with remain in place until Russia returns full the attitude of the new administration control over the peninsula to Ukraine.” regarding Ukraine. There have been many He added: “In eastern Ukraine, we join attempts to negotiate, pressure, and make our European partners in maintaining

22 The Warsaw Institute Review “Peacemaker” Putin

© Alexander Ermochenko (PAP/EPA) Donetsk, Ukraine, May 9, 2017. Pro-Russian rebels march during a military parade downtown. Leaders sanctions until Russia withdraws its forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk from the Donbass and meets its Minsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DNR and LNR) organized a Victory Day commitments.” The chief American parade marking the 72nd anniversary diplomat gave notice that: “Russia is of the victory over Nazi Germany arming, leading, training and fighting in World War II. alongside the anti-government forces. We call on Russia and its proxies to end its that handing over weapons to Ukraine harassment, intimidation and its attacks would trigger an escalation of the conflict, on the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission.” because the separatists would not stand idly by as their adversaries were reinforced. The Kremlin’s Surprising The Kremlin wants to achieve something Maneuver in this situation in talks with Germany The proposal to introduce United and France – the idea of peacekeeping Nations peacekeeping forces to the forces appears to be an expression of Donbass has proved that the Kremlin goodwill and readiness for dialogue. has reconciled itself to the unlikelihood It weakens Kiev’s position and gives of an “arrangement” with the Trump Putin time, at least until the presidential administration. Putin only changed his election in March. mind about the peacekeepers after the U.S. began seriously considering sending At present, there are about six-hundred offensive weaponry to Ukraine. It is no OSCE observers in Ukraine, who monitor coincidence that the Russian president whether the peace agreements, concluded made his “peace” proposal at the same by Ukraine and Russia under the auspices press conference where he threatened of France and Germany are being

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This way, Putin took the initiative away from Poroshenko. Moscow has met Kiev’s The proposal to expectations on the surface. Although both sides talk about an international UN introduce United peace mission, the details of the proposal Nations peacekeeping show that there are two completely different plans. In the Russian concept, forces to the Donbass peacekeeping forces are to complement the realization of the Minsk agreements has proved that the by supporting their implementation; in the Ukrainian version, they are to replace Kremlin has reconciled the Minsk agreements. itself to the unlikelihood Kiev has proposed imposing a strong peace mission consistent with Chapter of an “arrangement” VII of the Charter of the United Nations. Moscow however has suggested a with the Trump seriously limited mission based on the terms of Chapter VI of the Charter. administration. The Ukrainians want a repeat of the peace mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina respected. Putin uses the army to escalate (1994–1995) led by NATO under the UN conflict on the battlefield and then turns flag. The Russians would only allow to the West with what he presents a lightly armed UN contingent, limited as de-escalation proposals. to the front line, which would make it impossible to protect the OSCE This is why, since 2015, Kiev has mission, which operates in the entire explored the idea of deploying UN conflict zone. The Ukrainians are in favor forces in the Donbass as an alternative of a “fully-armed” peacekeeping mission to the Minsk agreements. However, and are against the participation it was only in July 2017 that President of Russian military personnel. Poroshenko presented such a project during a telephone conversation in the Although both proposals provide Normandy format (negotiations with for a full ceasefire and the withdrawal the participation of Angela Merkel, of heavy weapons, the Russian version Emmanuel Macron, Vladimir Putin only concerns the front, and not the and Petro Poroshenko). In August, entire conflict zone. The U.S. Special the Ukrainian president announced Representative for Ukraine, Kurt Volker, that a detailed plan would be presented said that this proposal is disconcerting. at the September session of the UN According to the American diplomat, only General Assembly in New York. It was the UN mission’s access to the entire area clear that the project had no chance would ensure security for people who live of passing through the Security Council in conflict-affected territories, and would because of Russia’s opposition. “provide access for Ukrainian authorities”, which in turn would allow So it was even more surprising when, local elections, provided for by the Minsk on September 5, the Kremlin suddenly agreements. According to Volker, elections changed its position on the presence of in the Donbass will not be possible until UN peacekeeping forces in the Donbass. Ukraine regains full control over this area,

24 The Warsaw Institute Review “Peacemaker” Putin which today is controlled by pro-Russian Russia will therefore have to keep large separatists. forces in reserve for a quick intervention in the event of a Ukrainian attack. Moscow and Kiev also differ on another issue. Russia wants the consent of the The goal of Vladimir Putin’s proposal rebels in the so-called “People’s Republics” is to create divisions among his enemies on the makeup of UN forces and details and solidify his own achievements. of their deployment, while the Ukrainian Initially, Moscow wanted to station authorities are against this. Several details international troops along the demarcation of Russia’s proposal for the UN mission line between the Ukrainian army and in the Donbass have disturbed Kiev. the separatist forces. According to the For example that it would operate for six Ukrainian government, this is Putin’s months at first, but only once troops and method of consolidating the situation equipment are withdrawn from the front that Russia has created on the ground. separating the opposing forces. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s international The Russians also want to include allies have taken this proposal seriously. a statement in their resolution that the On September 11, German Chancellor settlement of the conflict in the Donbass Angela Merkel called Vladimir Putin and is only possible with the full persuaded him to make concessions on implementation of the Minsk agreements. one point; Putin agreed that international forces should be deployed beyond the front No Chance for a Breakthrough line. This has led Western governments If the UN peacekeeping mission comes to believe that genuine negotiations with to fruition, it will mean the end of the Moscow are possible. The Foreign Minister war in the Donbass by military means, of Germany, Sigmar Gabriel, said that and the conflict will be transferred to Putin’s initiative demonstrates a change a purely political plane. Moscow will in Russia’s policy in Ukraine. Never mind demand that Kiev fulfill its Minsk the difference of opinion on many details obligations: amnesty for separatists, between Berlin and Moscow. It is unlikely changes in the constitution towards that the Russians will make concessions federalization and accepting deputies from though, as it is a matter of political effect separatist regions to the parliament. Russia and an attempt to outplay the West. will also want sanctions lifted in exchange for the introduction of peacekeeping forces. Kiev would have to take responsibility for the war-devastated If the UN peacekeeping region through heavy subsidies, in the face of high unemployment and a disloyal mission comes to population under Moscow’s influence. fruition, it will mean There is also a serious risk that Russia will try to legalize its forces currently stationed the end of the war in in the Donbass (as in Transnistria) as part of the UN peacekeeping contingent. From the Donbass by military Moscow’s point of view, the benefit of the appearance of the “blue helmets” will means, and the conflict remove the risk of a “Croatian scenario”, i.e. a sudden, decisive Ukrainian attack on will be transferred to a the occupied regions, as Croatia did taking back Krajina from the Serbs in 1995. purely political plane.

1/2018 25 Eastern Report © Alexei Filippov (PAP/ITAR-TASS) Moscow, Russia, August 14, 2009. Pavel Felgenhauer.

How little can be expected from Moscow’s Vladimir Putin is playing a game – his “peace” proposal was shown by Volker’s “concession” on the deployment of the November 13 meeting with Vladislav “blue helmets” beyond the front line, Surkov, Putin’s adviser. The Russian side may have given Angela Merkel the illusion rejected twenty-six of the twenty-nine that the Kremlin is ready for further points of Volker’s proposal. Negotiations compromises. In the meantime, what kind are at an impasse, primarily because of a concession is it to place forces across Russia will not recognize the rules the whole territory covered by the OSCE requiring a ceasefire, the withdrawal mission, since there is still no mention of heavy armament from eastern Ukraine of protecting civilians or access to the and border access. Russia will still not Ukrainian-Russian border? Putin will admit that it even has forces stationed in never agree to a peace mission on terms eastern Ukraine, let alone withdraw them. set by Ukraine or the West. That said, Both Volker and leaders in Kiev believe he is already presenting himself as that there should be no Russian soldiers a “peacemaker” – Russia has submitted in the UN mission. It cannot be ruled out a motion for a resolution to the that Russia will agree to allow the mission UN Security Council. This is also a part of access to the entire region, but on the its dealings with the U.S. on various issues, condition that the majority of the soldiers not only in Ukraine, but also in Syria, are from the countries of the Collective North Korea and China, which Putin Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), has raised in his election campaign. which brings together many post-Soviet allies of Moscow and sympathetic Western There is no way the West will accept countries. the Russian proposal in its current form

26 The Warsaw Institute Review “Peacemaker” Putin though. Moscow must know this. However, tactical and short-term reasons to convince it may be the beginning of a deal. If one the U.S. not to transfer weapons to Ukraine. is agreed upon, a full ceasefire will come The “blue helmets” proposal could be into force, a peace mission will be deployed scrapped at any time under the guise of throughout the Donbass, and the Russian disagreement over some detail. Moscow’s army will leave. But at that moment, goal is also to torpedo Kiev’s plan to deploy Western pressure for implementing the peacekeepers and simultaneously saddle Minsk agreements will shift from Moscow Ukraine and the U.S. with the to Kiev. So far Ukraine has resisted, arguing responsibility for the expected failure that it is impossible to conduct free elections of the Russian proposal. After four years under foreign occupation in conflict zones. of conflict, Moscow has nothing left to show In the meantime, the presence of the UN for its efforts. It has made new enemies, peacekeeping mission means the end of not friends. Separatists control only four the occupation and of the conflict. It is also percent of Ukraine, while the rest of the an argument for lifting sanctions (those country has unified. Federalization or not related to Crimea) and the transfer neutrality is out of the question. Another of financial responsibility for reason for Putin’s activity is the cost of war the Donbass to Kiev. and subsidies to the “People’s Republics” – over $1 billion annually. Even if Kiev gets what it wants – a full- -fledged UN peacekeeping mission in the conflict zone and along the border with Russia, it will not end the conflict since Vladimir Putin is in accordance with Chapter V of the United Nations Charter, peacekeeping playing a game – his operations are very limited. Russian “concession” on the analyst Pavel Felgenhauer is under no illusions about this. In an interview with deployment of the “blue Radio Free Europe he said: “Peacekeepers under Chapter V drive around in white helmets” beyond the jeeps, write reports, and observe. They front line, may have carry a firearm, but can only formally use them for self-defense, although in truth given Angela Merkel the they never use them. If gunfire erupts, they first hide, and then give themselves illusion that the Kremlin up. Under the best scenario, some 200 is ready for further will come, maybe up to a thousand from Bangladesh, Senegal and elsewhere in compromises. the Third World, and they will be there, working next to the OSCE monitors. What may have prompted the Kremlin They won’t be trying to determine to come up with the idea of a “UN [who is to blame for] anything but peacekeeping mission”, now should merely monitoring. Ukraine will gain suggest to Kiev that they should maintain nothing from it.” the status quo. This means maintaining the Western sanctions imposed on Russia The Better is the Enemy of the and the political and largely economic Good isolation of the occupied portion of the Another option cannot be ruled out: Putin Donbass. It also means excluding most only raised the issue of the UN mission for of the traditional pro-Russian electorate

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the “People’s Republics” are considered occupied territories by the U.S. and the The Russian proposal for EU. No steps can be taken that can be used to legitimize the regimes of these puppet the UN mission is a trap states in Donetsk and Lugansk. Therefore it is important to remind people of this set for Ukraine – Putin and emphasize that these are really areas can tell the West that under Moscow’s control. From the very beginning, the Kremlin has been seeking he is seeking a peaceful to present the conflict in the Donbass to world opinion as an internal Ukrainian solution and that it is conflict. It must be pointed out clearly and consistently that this is a conflict Kiev’s fault that the between Ukraine and Russia. As long as Minsk agreements are Russian soldiers, or troops commanded and equipped by Russians, are stationed still only on paper. in the Donbass, Kiev has plenty of room for maneuver, if only in negotiations with from the Ukrainian national elections – the West about implementing the political which led to the election of the most pro- points of the Minsk agreements. Western parliamentary majority, president and government since 1991. For economic That is why the conditions under which reasons, the current state of affairs also the United Nations peacekeeping forces weakens many oligarchs, who have so would enter the Donbass are so important. far held with Moscow, and certainly Moscow has used the “blue helmets” more are not interested in reforms. Above all, than once to consolidate its territorial gains. this is an economically uncomfortable It cannot be allowed to happen again. situation for Russia, which would gladly The Russian proposal for the UN mission pass on the burden of maintaining and is a trap set for Ukraine – Putin can tell rebuilding densely populated industrial the West that he is seeking a peaceful areas devastated by war. Finally, the solution and that it is Kiev’s fault that last, particularly political, advantage for the Minsk agreements are still only on Kiev is as long as we have a state of war paper. That is why details are so important (remember that there is only a ceasefire – especially the question of UN forces in the Donbass), President Poroshenko entering up to the Ukrainian-Russian and Minister of Internal Affairs, Arsen border. There can be no concessions in Avakov, can use this to unify society this matter. It is better to resist pressure, against a common enemy and to including from the West, than to later delay reforms (although it is now face the situation where allies determine less advantageous for Ukraine). that since there are already international peacekeeping forces in the Donbass, the The best tactic would be to generally area should be included in the political life engage in the same behavior as over the (including through elections) of Ukraine. last three years. There is no rush This would allow the West to wash their for the changes provided for in the Minsk hands of the issue, claiming that the conflict agreements (change of the electoral law, is over and Kiev has regained the Donbass. amnesty for separatists, codifying the act on the special status of the Donbass into Grzegorz Kuczyński the constitution). It must be stressed that December 15, 2017

28 The Warsaw Institute Review Iran: Protest of the Doubly Cheated Ksawery Czerniewicz The largest social protests in nearly a decade occurred in Iran at the turn of the year. The demonstrations were not the creation of countries hostile to Tehran, but of internal opponents of President Hassan Rouhani who provoked the outburst to exploit people’s dissatisfaction with their socio-economic situation.

he protests began as hopes the regime as a whole. The radicalization failed for benefits flowing from of the protest immediately provoked the removal of sanctions on a brutal reaction from the authorities, Iran. The improvement supported by both the so-called reformers Tof macroeconomic indicators, due to and conservatives – although in the the increase in oil revenues from exports, initial phase of the protests both rival did not translate into an improved camps were quite restrained, apparently situation for ordinary people who finally waiting for the development of events. took to the streets. The protest quickly took on a political tone, with its ire aimed The first demonstration took place on not only at the president, but also at the December 28 in Mashhad, after which great Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and even the street protests quickly spread to

1/2018 29 © Stewart Innes (PAP/EPA) Tehran, Iran, June 17, 2005. The Spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, votes in the presidential elections in Tehran.

other cities. On December 30, the wave of emergency. According to official data, of dissatisfaction reached Tehran. After twenty-two people died in the riots, three days of indecision, the surprised according to the opposition, over fifty. authorities counterattacked, opting According to information provided for brutal repression, even though the by the courts, over a thousand people demonstrations were peaceful. Through were arrested throughout the country. social media, mainly Instagram and However, the real number is known Telegram, people learned in advance in to be up to several times greater. Over which cities the police and paramilitary 450 people were arrested in Tehran militias had the order to shoot into the alone. Member of Parliament Mahmoud crowd – then the organizers canceled the Sadeghi, for example, reported that at protest to avoid casualties. On January least 3,700 people were arrested. There 3, after six days of riots, the commander were cases of deaths of those detained of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard in prison – the most common cause Corps (IRGC) Mohammad Ali Jafari being classified as “suicide”. Many announced “the end of the revolt”, detained participants of the protests although the last protests did not end face the charge of “war against God” until January 6–7. On January 8, (moharebeh), which threatens them with the authorities canceled the state the death penalty.

30 The Warsaw Institute Review Iran: Protest of the Doubly Cheated

Official data claims that no more than Mossad, Budget and Eggs 42,000 people took to the streets. There At the end of January, Deputy Interior were more of course, but certainly not Minister Hossein Zolfaghari issued hundreds of thousands as in 2009. a report on the causes of the outbreak On the scale of a country with eighty of the protests. He gave three main million people, this is not much. In reasons. First, the actions of external addition, there was a lack of coordination enemies, like the U.S. and their allies and efficient organization of the protests in the region. Second, the decline for various reasons. First, it all started in public confidence resulting from with a provocation in one place, so it was the weakness of institutions and not a planned revolution. Second, organizations. Third, “incorrect the opposition did not have a strong management of public opinion” and leader or anyone aspiring to this role. an increase in public expectations Third, the situation in the region helped and demands as a result of unrealistic the authorities: Iranians themselves election promises made without taking admit that the example of Syria, into account the resources and real Egypt and Libya, where the attempt capabilities of the country. This fits in to enforce a regime change only led to with the narrative about the “hostile destabilization, turmoil and war, had foreign conspiracy” adopted at the a moderating influence on most people. beginning, but also makes an accurate diagnosis about the socio-economic In contrast to the protests of 2009 basis of the protest. against the rigged elections, this time the demonstrators presented Of course, excuses citing a “foreign a whole range of issues, from economic conspiracy” do not seem credible and and social demands to calling for a Iran has not provided strong evidence change in the political system. for it. On January 2, Ayatollah Khamenei If the middle class, the intelligentsia spoke about the activities of “enemies and students were protesting in 2009, of Iran”. Three days later, during Friday now it was the workers and people prayers in Tehran, the influential cleric from the bottom of society, that is, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami thundered: the traditional base of the regime. The geography of protests also had a much wider scope: seventy to eighty towns. However, the protests had no chance This fits in with of turning into a revolution that would overthrow the Islamic republic. First the narrative about of all, the security apparatus – having drawn conclusions from 2009 – was the “hostile foreign prepared for such a situation. Structural conspiracy” adopted changes were introduced in the IRGC and paramilitary Basij organization. at the beginning, but The police forces’ ability to fight demonstrations was also increased. also makes an accurate Secondly, the regime turned out to be consolidated and determined to defend diagnosis about the itself. The division into reformers and socio-economic basis conservatives disappeared in the face of attempts to change the system. of the protest.

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“The demands of the nation, if they prices for basic necessities, lowering really come from the nation, must be unemployment, reducing corruption heard and its problems resolved, but and reducing spending on a militant the voices speaking out on Trump’s and foreign policy, and redirecting these funds Netanyahu’s orders are unacceptable to internal needs. To understand the they will be suppressed by the nation.” meaning of these demands, it is necessary In turn, on January 6, Iran’s Permanent to recall the economic situation of Iran at Representative to the United Nations, the end of 2017. GDP grew for the second Gholamali Khoshroo, said at a Security year in a row, but good macroeconomic Council meeting that his government had indicators were in no way correlated to the “hard evidence” that the latest protests standard of living of ordinary Iranians. in Iran were “very clearly controlled The nuclear deal with the Western powers, from abroad”. A more detailed picture which entered into force at the beginning of the “conspiracy” was presented by the of 2016, primed the economy but did not Prosecutor General of Iran. Mohammad fulfill the hopes placed in it. One of the Jafar Montazeri said that in order to reasons for dissatisfaction are double-digit inflation rates. In 2017, the economy grew by 4.1 percent, but prices are growing even The real basis for the faster (ten percent inflation). The price of eggs, one of the main components protests, meanwhile, of the diet of poorer Iranians, increased as much as eighty percent over two weeks was in growing in December. Unemployment, which fell in 2016, increased again in 2017, dissatisfaction with reaching 12.5 percent (twenty percent in small cities, thirty percent among young the socio-economic people). Income inequality increased, and situation. according to various estimates, from forty to sixty percent of Iranians are included trigger mass protests a special group was in the poorest layers of society. The benefits organized under the leadership of the of repealing the sanctions imposed on head of the CIA’s Iran Mission Center, the oil and banking sectors could be seen Michael D’Andrea, working in concert on a macro scale. On the micro scale, with the Mossad. The operation was to be ordinary Iranians did not feel them, financed by Saudi Arabia. These enemies with the exception of groups close to were to use the People’s Mujahideen the regime; the religious organizations (Mojahedin-e Khalq), recognized as of various influential priests have annual a terrorist organization by Tehran, budgets approximating those of small monarchists, nationalists, and even towns. groups associated with communists. In the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, Erbil A wave of dissatisfaction was triggered and Afghanistan, two operational groups on December 12 with the publication were reportedly prepared, ready to stoke of the budget for 2018 anticipating cuts the protests with IS fighters. in social spending, such as an increase in gasoline prices or a significant The real basis for the protests, meanwhile, reduction of the popular cash support was in growing dissatisfaction with program introduced in 2010, with the socio-economic situation. The first a simultaneous increase in expenditure slogans included: stopping the rise in on IRGC and religious foundations.

32 The Warsaw Institute Review Iran: Protest of the Doubly Cheated Abedin Taherkenareh (PAP/EPA) Taherkenareh © Abedin Tehran, Iran, October 13, 2007. Iranian women participate in prayers in Tehran on the Muslim feast of Eid al-Fitr, celebrated at the end of Ramadan, the month of fasting.

The protests broke out just after details years with deprivation or high prices of the secret part of the budget leaked on for rice, poultry, and rising prices for the internet, including data on the scale vegetables and fruits. But it did not lead of financing of two IRGC structures: to demonstrations. Just as they were not the special al-Quds formation operating caused by a high level of unemployment outside Iran and the Basij paramilitary or deep wealth inequality. The more so formation. Both groups, actively involved because despite everything there was in Syria, were allocated over $11 billion for an improvement under the Rouhani “ongoing expenses” under the classified government. The catalyst for the protests articles of the budget act. Apparently this was political intrigue capitalizing on gigantic “co-financing” was won by a new the unfulfilled hopes of society. The favorite of Ayatollah Khamenei, Brigadier Iranian authorities have long promised General Gholamhossein Gheybparvar, people prosperity, claiming that in the commander of Basij, and earlier the head end, after the sanctions were removed, of Iranian military advisers in Syria for over a year. His growing influence does not please the government technocrats from the Rouhani government. The leak can be The catalyst for the considered an element of the struggle in the ruling camp. protests was political

Dashed Hopes intrigue capitalizing Structural, socio-economic problems on the unfulfilled alone are not enough to trigger mass protests. Iran already struggled in recent hopes of society.

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the country’s economy would flourish believe that he is not keeping his (previously, the rulers gladly cast blame promises. Critics point to the fact on Western sanctions, which were that since Rouhani became president, especially onerous for the oil sector). defense expenditures increased by eighteen percent, and for religious However, the problem is the very institutions by as much as twenty-six structure of the Iranian economy. The percent. Rouhani’s image was also state has over-involved itself in business badly affected by a series of collapsed matters; state ownership dominates financial schemes. New banks, generally with low production efficiency as a without a license, lured clients with result. The budget depends to a large high (forty percent per annum) interest extent on petrodollars. The high on deposits. Their commercials were level of corruption, administrative common on television, which in Iran burdens and elements of the so-called are usually believed. After some time, Islamic economy, all hinder economic the authorities began to close illegal development. Instead of reforming, the financial institutions and customers who authorities kept repeating that the bad lost their savings and demanded their financial situation of people is the fault return from the state. In some cases of sanctions. After two years passed it happened, but the scale of the losses since the sanctions disappeared and turned out to be so large that the money nothing changed in the life of ordinary simply ran out. Iranians, many felt cheated, with reformers like Rouhani at the forefront – Meanwhile, investigations against in which they had placed their hopes the owners of a couple of banks are for a change for the better. proceeding sluggishly and Rouhani has spouted off that the victims are themselves guilty because they entrusted their money The conflict intensified into uncertain hands. The president also lost a lot in the eyes of the at the beginning of minority population. Although Sunnis, representing about ten percent December, when the of the country’s population, supported him as a block in the election, he presidential camp completely ignored them when composing his cabinet. He never even appointed one attacked the public Sunni governor in any of the thirty-one power structures. provinces. Rouhani was also silent when the Guardian Council (responsible only The protests at the turn of December to the great Ayatollah and acting as a filter and January were the biggest challenge for all government legislative initiatives, for the authorities of Iran, since giving opinions on candidates for high Rouhani, regarded as a moderate positions), rejected a parliamentary politician, assumed the presidency project and blocked the participation in 2013 promising greater openness of non-Muslims in local elections. of the regime and economic reforms. He won again in the 2017 election, All this was taken advantage of by the leading an openly reformist campaign conservative faction opposing Rouhani. against his “hard-headed” rival. Now, The conflict intensified at the beginning however, many of his supporters of December, when the presidential

34 The Warsaw Institute Review Iran: Protest of the Doubly Cheated camp attacked the public power structures, accusing them of trying to increase their share of the budget for Tehran has spent 2018 despite the economic problems. In response, the conservatives and their billions on its regional media began to accuse the president for ambitions in recent the failure of economic policy and the failure to fulfill promises given to the years. public. The first protests took place not in Tehran, but in Mashhad – the bastion reformers, such as Mostafa Tajzadeh, of the regime. They were provoked the head of the Election Office in by the sermons of Ayatollah Ahmad the presidential administration of Alamolhoda, a conservative cleric Mohammad Khatami (1997–2005), associated with Khamenei, and also defended people’s right to protest. a relative of the head of one of the largest But as violence intensified, Rouhani”s religious foundations, Astan Quds supporters began to condemn the Razavi, chaired by Ebrahim Raisi. demonstrations. Conservatives did the same following the signal given by The protests were to be a prelude to a sharp statement on January 2 from starting impeachment proceedings. Ayatollah Khamenei. But when people noticed that they could protest without being subjected No External Shocks to repression, slogans of “Death to From the beginning of the protests, Rouhani!” quickly morphed into slogans the main question was if they would against the whole regime. At the very somehow affect Iran’s foreign policy. height of the riots, Vice President Eshaq However, before the surprised countries, Jahangiri, a close ally of Rouhani, including the U.S. and Russia, stated that “When a social and political formulated a final position, it became movement is launched on the streets, clear that the protests would not threaten those who started it will not necessarily the rulers in Tehran. All the more, there be able to control it in the end. Those was no threat to Iran’s current foreign who are behind such events will burn policy line. Although its critics appeared their own fingers”. among the demonstrators, they were primarily economic (one motto “Not Having provoked demonstrations, the Gaza, not Syria, not Lebanon – our conservatives quickly lost control over country is Iran!”). them. Throughout the country, people with increasingly radical slogans started Tehran has spent billions on its regional to come out onto the streets. ambitions in recent years. Until 2005, A novelty were slogans along the lines experts estimated that Iran was giving of “Death to Khamenei!” and the Hezbollah about $200 million a year. burning of portraits of the ayatollahs. Nor can one forget the large sums The protests were no longer limited to paid to Hezbollah hospitals and social demands for reform. The names of the institutions by various Iranian religious leaders of the reformatory camp were foundations, including those directly not highlighted, but the name of the controlled by the Ayatollah. With son of the last Shah did appear. This the increase of Hezbollah military radicalism surprised both reformers involvement in the region, mainly and conservatives. Initially, some of the in Syria, Iranian expenses on the Shiite

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satellite increased to between $800 million to $1 billion a year. The annual costs of supporting Assad’s regime were another several billion. State-owned banks in Iran opened credit lines for Assad in 2013 and 2015 for a total of $4.6 billion. Help for Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip has recently risen to $100 million annually. Large funds are sent for the IRGC’s participation in special and military operations abroad, as well as support for the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq (a coalition of Shiite militias) and organizations like Badra. In addition, there is aid to Shiite organizations in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region, and of course, involvement in the Yemeni war on the side of the Houthi rebellion.

During the protests, such slogans as “Leave Syria, think about us” appeared. However, the claims of Donald Trump or regional Arab leaders that one of the main motives for the protests was dissatisfaction with the foreign policy of the state can be regarded as wishful Abedin Taherkenareh (PAP/EPA) Taherkenareh © Abedin political thinking at best. Besides, surveys indicate that the majority of Iranians approve of the foreign policy of the allies. Hezbollah boss Hassan Nasrallah state, i.e. supporting Hezbollah, helping downplayed the protests, saying that they Assad and not recognizing the state of are small, have no political basis, and Israel. There were also no significant are fueled by the U.S., Israel and Saudi signs of anxiety on the side of Tehran’s Arabia. In this way, he extinguished Hezbollah supporters’ fears of losing support from Iran. A similar position was taken by the Iraqi vice-president, former That would lead to prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, one of the leaders of the Shiite camp in Baghdad, increased Russian saying that the protests are an “internal involvement in the war matter” of Iran. One of the slogans during the in order to save the demonstration was “Death to Russia!” – regime, which is risky which resulted from the widespread belief among Iranians that Moscow is the main from a public relations supporter of the regime. Russia is waging war in Syria alongside Iran, provides perspective. nuclear and missile technologies to Iran,

36 The Warsaw Institute Review Iran: Protest of the Doubly Cheated

Tehran, Iran, August 15, 2017. Newly re-elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani delivers a speech to the parliament during a session to discuss his proposed cabinet. According to media reports Rouhani warned of the possibility that the Islamic Republic could pull out of the nuclear deal signed with the world’s major powers within hours if the United States kept on imposing new sanctions. and supports Iran’s anti-Western policy. Ministry of Foreign Affairs were extremely The collapse of the regime in Iran would restrained and even neutral – probably as be a serious blow to the Kremlin for two a result of surprise, but perhaps also the reasons. First of all, it would complicate knowledge that at least the initiation of the the Middle Eastern policy of Russia and demonstrations was the result of domestic could even cost her the main ally in the intrigue in Iran. It was not until January region. Without the tens of thousands 2 that the Russians returned to the usual of Shiite fighters supported by Iran, rhetoric, blaming the protests on “external Assad’s army would also lose its position. factors”. And on January 4, they warned That would lead to increased Russian the U.S. to not interfere in the internal involvement in the war in order to save affairs of Iran. This coincided with the the regime, which is risky from a public regaining of control over the situation relations perspective. In addition, Putin by the Iranian regime. is extremely hostile to any such revolution, fearing a similar revolt in Russia. However, Ksawery Czerniewicz the first announcements from the Russian March 1, 2018

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Ukraine: Freedom in the Shadow of Corruption Aleksandra Romanowska In the current discourse on Ukraine and Western policy towards Kiev, the idea of the authorities fighting a legitimate battle against corruption, not just one for public consumption, is being strongly articulated.

ashington and Brussels Chernobyl and Post-Chernobyl are directly tying further Established on the basis of a resolution economic and political of the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) of aid for Ukraine to the Ukraine, the National Anti-Corruption Wdecisive reduction of corruption. Bureau, whose task is to track In a dispute over the strategy and tactics corruption among state officials and of the anti-corruption campaign, a central politicians, operates in an exceptionally place is occupied by the National unfavorable environment: it is a de Anti-Corruption Bureau, a new institution facto anti-establishment institution in in Ukraine that is either attacked or an oligarchic, historically and socially ignored by the centers of power and rooted patronage system. For many years openly supported by Western diplomatic Ukraine, as documented by Transparency missions. Despite this support, its fate International, has been one of the most seems sealed: it will die or fade into corrupt countries in the world. In the the background, adopting a defensive latest ranking, it occupies the 131st position, unless a radical change place among 176, the lowest position in the political system can save it. in Europe. Before the Euromaidan

38 The Warsaw Institute Review Ukraine: Freedom in the Shadow of Corruption

© Sergey Dolzhenko (PAP/EPA) Chernobyl, Ukraine, April 5, 2017. A general view of the new protective shelter over the remains of the Unit 4 reactor at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The explosion in Unit 4 in the early hours of April 26, 1986 is still regarded as the most catastrophic accident in the history of nuclear power generation. The Ukrainians will mark the 32nd anniversary of the Chernobyl tragedy on April 26, 2018. protests, it was 144th, even worse than Russia. The experience of the political transformation of Ukraine is not For many years comparable with the histories of transition from socialism to capitalism in Poland, Ukraine, as documented Czechoslovakia or Hungary. This by Transparency is primarily due to historical conditions. International, has been Ukraine was one of the most important parts of the Soviet empire, and in contrast one of the most corrupt to Poland, for example, the political and social system was exceptionally devastated countries in the world. after the collapse of the empire. The Chernobyl nuclear disaster in 1986 was not the Orthodox Church, unable to read the only a symbol of ecological catastrophe, but signs of the times and support democratic also of the actual relationship between the change. citizen and the state – the “model” of Soviet freedom and the “model” of Soviet social The first attempt to control the post- relations. The internal opposition and -traumatic chaos after the breakup of the dissident movement were historically the empire was the presidency of Leonid unprepared to take power, and just like Kuchma, a meticulously KGB-controlled

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cover up the scandal, Lazarenko escaped Ukraine on a private plane. He asked The largest individual for asylum in the United States, where he owned a $7 million villa and bank accounts fortunes in Russia and holding about $150 million, mostly from Ukraine were created bribes taken for privatized factories. Pasha, as they called him at the time in Kiev, in the gas and oil sector, shared half of the profits with the new owners. Allegedly, through carelessness, he often as a result of the left a notebook of transactions in the empty office of the Ukrainian prime minister. joint efforts of Russian Julia Tymoszenko, the “gas princess”, and Ukrainian oligarchs who perfectly understood the logic of the new stage, as Lazarenko claimed, in domestic and foreign emerged from his “Dnepropetrovsk stable”. markets. The social history of Ukraine can be perfectly illustrated by the ups and downs politician representing the post-Soviet of oligarchs, clans, families, intrigues nomenklatura,1 and the director of the as well as sudden and unexplained deaths. largest armament factory in Europe. Similar phenomena and processes took President Kuchma and his team got a place in Russia, with which Ukraine handle on the chaos, then gradually took is strongly associated historically, control over fragments of the failing state economically and mentally. The largest and economy. Contrary to the declarations individual fortunes in Russia and Ukraine of building a social market economy were created in the gas and oil sector, on the European model, however, they often as a result of the joint efforts created a variant of the oligarchic system of Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs that generated exploitation, political in domestic and foreign markets. violence and social inequalities. The conflicts between them for shares The president himself favored a particular of profits from the export of gas and oil metaphor for leaving socialism: quickly turned into a political conflict “In socialism, it was like in a zoo: we sat between Moscow and Kiev. in cages, it was warm, there was electricity, they brought food. One day they opened The Ukrainian oligarchy had its origins in cages, turned off the electricity and we ran the first Kuchma administration. The vast into the forest – the strongest survive.”2 majority of politicians who then appeared A colorful symbol of the first Kuchma in his circle or in the Verkhovna Rada, administration, the Ukrainian post- are still active in various ways to this -Chernobyl period, was the Prime day. It is probably not a coincidence that Minister Pavlo Lazarenko, a close the main Ukrainian negotiators with the associate of Kuchma whom he appointed Kremlin over the Donbass are old friends, and later dismissed after accusations of godfathers of the Ukrainian oligarchy: corruption appeared in the media. When Kuchma himself and former head of his it was clear that there was no chance to office, Viktor Medwedczuk, co-author of the electoral success of Viktor Yanukovych 1 The system in the Soviet Union by which the Communist Party appointed individuals and patron of the oligarchic clan, whose to important positions in government and industry. rule was ended by the Euromaidan 2 L. Kuczma, Ukraina nie Rosja, (Kijów 2001), 246. protests.

40 The Warsaw Institute Review Ukraine: Freedom in the Shadow of Corruption

Patronage State The Ukrainian political system is often called using the ῾Aristotelian’ definition, even in academic publications, an oligarchy or an oligarchic system. According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, oligarchy is “a government exercised by a few, especially the despotic power exercised by a small and privileged group for corrupt or selfish purposes.”3 In the ῾Aristotelian’ classification of governments, there were two forms of governance by a few groups – aristocracy and its handicapped form, oligarchy. Although the term “oligarchy” is rarely used in relation to contemporary political systems, the phenomenon of irresponsible governance by small groups has not disappeared from the world. However, the concept of oligarchy used for description and analysis, not only of post-Soviet societies, has many theoretical and practical limitations, hence the constant search for new theoretical perspectives. One of them is the concept of the patronage state.4

A patronage state is one in which the patron-client relationship is accepted © Sergei Supinsky (EPA) as decisive in the satisfaction of basic December 22, 1998, Pavlo Lazarenko. In a rare human needs. “One of the most case of a former foreign leader being tried in common motivations for creating the United States, Lazarenko, the prime minister such a type of bond, patron-client of Ukraine (1996–1997), was convicted of money laundering in June 2004. He was found guilty by a ties, is obtaining privileged access to federal court in San Francisco of all twenty-nine limited goods and services”.5 This is counts against him in a case in which prosecutors an “asymmetrical relationship” where said he stole from his own country and spirited the money abroad, laundering some of it in “future members of the ‘clientelist’ union California banks. first occupy unequal positions in the social or organizational structure and precisely because of these inequalities asymmetry has its source in placing enter the patron-client relationship. both partners in a wider structure.”6 The mutual relations of the patron and the client can strengthen or weaken In patron-client relationships, apart from these differences, but the initial declared friendship and loyalty, there may also be violence, exploitation and 3 Encyclopedia Britannica, https://www.britannica. com/topic/oligarchy. addiction. The patron-client relationship 4 J. Tarkowski, Socjologia świata polityki, t. 2: Patroni comes close to the concept of domination i klienci, (Warszawa 1994). 5 J. Tarkowski, op.cit., 52. 6 J. Tarkowski, op.cit., 75.

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Przemyśl, Poland, September 10, 2017. Ukrainian prime © Darek Delmanowicz (PAP) minister and opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko.

in the Weberian view. The relation of and statements from public institutions, power in the patron-client system seems political parties and the media. Attempts to be closest to the traditional, charismatic to dismantle the political structure of type of final dominion formulated these societies involves the identification by Max Weber.7 of patrons (oligarchs) and tracing the network of links between their clients and Network State competitors. It also involves the analysis According to Henry E. Hale, the of informal connections and their universal feature of the political process influence on official institutions: in the post-Soviet countries is the parliament, government, courts, deep infiltration of the patron-client prosecutors, police, media, NGOs. network and mechanisms, and clan-like In “patronage” regimes, power is relationships and their parasitic role in accumulated, kept and used within a more national economies.8 According to the or less successful framework, maintained author, in post-Soviet states there are through the interaction between informal, hidden political regimes in which political sometimes interrelated, sometimes competition and decision-making take competing, patron pyramids and guided place in processes that are either partially by the most senior patrons. or totally invisible in official activities As a rule, the most powerful of these 7 A. Adamowicz A., Państwo patronalne, (Warszawa corrupt clans cover a wide range 2015), 39. of social institutions, ranging from 8 H.E. Hale, Patronal Politics: Eurasian Regime ministries, enterprises and media to civil Dynamics in Comparative Perspective, (Cambridge University Press 2014). society organizations. The coherence,

42 The Warsaw Institute Review Ukraine: Freedom in the Shadow of Corruption effectiveness and durability of these pyramidal structures is based not only on the formal institutional hierarchy As a rule, the most among their members, but also on their family ties and personal friendships, powerful of these long-term knowledge, experience of informal transactions and such a prosaic corrupt clans cover foundation as mafia rules, accumulation a wide range of social of loyalty, blackmail material and ordinary fear. institutions, ranging

Patron networks and pyramids act as from ministries, informal mechanisms for exchanging positions, money, orders, real estate, enterprises and goods, services, licenses, subsidies media to civil society and benefits. In reality, corruption schemes form the basis, meaning and organizations. purpose of most post-Soviet “patronage policies”. These hidden regimes operate the president and the prime minister as not only under the clear pressure of well as the constant presence of competing authoritarianism, but also in nominally patron networks. These conditions, formal democratic systems. Moreover, electoral and informal, also make it difficult systems are used to obtain real public to “capture” and subordinate the state support, and the electoral success to representatives of one oligarchic group of a country’s main political patron and monopolize the political space at the (for example the president), as well national and regional level through one as regional elections, are an essential of the networks of the political and condition for acquiring, preserving economic system under one clan. and increasing their “patron” power. Ukrainian politics are still dirty, but for According to Ukrainian researcher the time being they remain democratic. Oleksandr Fisun, an advocate of applying the “patrimonial state” theory to the Is There a Plan? analysis of the situation in Ukraine, the Can anti-corruption institutions succeed restructuring of the presidential regime in a patron-network state? Does their of Yanukovych after the Euromaidan creation make sense? Will the National protests led to the creation of a new, neo- Anti-Corruption Bureau be able to win -patrimonial democracy in Ukraine. the war with the networked prosecutor’s The current regime operates on the basis office, the networked court, the networked of competition between various customer parliament, government and the networks – patrons exercising control over president? Is it able to dismantle a visibly key profit-generating sources in the state reviving patronage system, that is lifting administration and various sectors of the its head after Euromaidan? These are not economy. The new patrimonial democracy purely theoretical questions. has contributed to the rise of formal and informal obstacles to the development You can analyze the Anti-Corruption of a super-presidential regime and the Bureau’s war with the hostile environment return to the president’s personal rule. as a social and political experiment. The balance of the system is ensured by This will likely expand knowledge about the division of executive power between attempts by the prosecutor’s office to

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discredit the employees of the Bureau, the highest possible price. In single-member Security Service of Ukraine tracking its provincial electoral districts there are employees, including those working under no effective civic organizations, media, cover and cut off from information and independent observers and entrepreneurs, sources, as well as the Verkhovna Rada, independent experts who could where a draft resolution that essentially participate in the electoral process.”9 neutralizes the institution is ready (also The concentration of power, control stuck in the Parliament is a resolution of the media, and manipulation of to create the Anti-Corruption Court). the electoral process, complete this An important role in this experiment homogeneous political picture is also being played by the president who of Ukraine. has tried to find a good way out of the network’s contradiction: stay in power The ideals of the Orange Revolution lasted without losing the economic influence a year – the organizers celebrated its first guaranteed by the network. anniversary in separate, hostile political camps. Demands to equalize opportunities Analyses and descriptions of the colorful and give a green light for the young cases of the anti-heroes of this drama middle class have never been realized; will be an interesting continuation the winners divided Ukraine among of the history of Kuchma, Lazarenko, themselves and as a result paved the way Yanukovych, the Orange Revolution for the triumphant return of Yanukovych. and Euromaidan. However, if we have His internal and foreign policy led to the come this far in this dramatic history, Euromaidan protests, during which he and certainly a bit further than Ukraine’s escaped the country with a stolen fortune, neighbor supporting the separatists in fleeing as befits a criminal, under the Donbass, then perhaps at least theoretically cover of darkness and with the help it is worth considering a plan of structural of Russian President Vladimir Putin. political changes separating government from business, thus minimizing structural Ukraine is a very important link in factors generating corruption. European security and a large part of Western public opinion is well aware Its first action may be the change of this. Considering the experience of the of electoral law in elections to the last two years, including the experiment Verkhovna Rada. The current law actually with the National Anti-Corruption protects and recreates the clan structure Bureau, it seems that the demand for of the parliament. Each of the strongest structural political reform that starts Ukrainian patrons has their branch the process of dismantling the patronage in the Verkhovna Rada, its team can state is very timely. The first step may also buy votes from deputies from other be what was called for several years ago: factions, if necessary. reforming the electoral law.

Thus, in Ukraine there is no political Aleksandra Romanowska system familiar to Europe; in reality December 15, 2017 there are no political parties. “The existing electoral law protects the clan social structure and strengthens patron 9 Коррупционная, патрональная система контратакует: как Украине не вернуться в темные relations in politics,” writes Andreas времена, https://voxukraine.org/ru/korruptsionna- Umland, “a system of closed electoral ya-patronalnaya-sistema-kontratakuet-kak-ukraine- lists allows factions to sell places at the ne-vernutsya-v-temnye-vremena/.

44 The Warsaw Institute Review Estonian Spy Hunters Grzegorz Kuczyński Western intelligence services have been paying special attention to increasing Russian espionage activity in recent years, which has reached Cold War levels. NATO’s eastern flank is particularly vulnerable to Moscow’s efforts.

he former Eastern Bloc countries The Estonian Internal Security Service and the former republics of the (Kaitsepolitseiamet – KaPo) is an Soviet Union are dealing with intelligence service considered one this with varying degrees of of the best and most resistant to Russian Teffectiveness. Undoubtedly one of the most infiltration in the former Eastern Bloc. active sections of this front in the secret The Russians themselves admit this, as war is Estonia, both due to its location and the Estonian service has for years been the legacy of the Soviet occupation, such one of their most difficult opponents in as a substantial Russian minority. These Europe. In the 1990s the KaPo already difficult conditions have not prevented became a strategic partner of British the Estonians from building an effective intelligence. This was one of the reasons counterintelligence apparatus. Perhaps why Vasili Mitrokhin came to the British in no other NATO member state Isles via Estonia with his precious KGB are Russian spies caught as often. archive instead of crossing the Atlantic.

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Over the last decade in Estonia, there have and the fact is publicly broadcast. This been several high-profile apprehensions demonstrates the increased vigilance of spies, including people working for of the Estonian side, which knows the KaPo. The case of Herman Simm was perfectly well that a tough attitude especially important, as it struck at not is best in relation to Moscow. only the security of Estonia, but the whole of NATO. Catching a Russian spy in its As said by John Schindler, a former U.S. own ranks was a great success for KaPo. National Security Agency (NSA) analyst, The case of Aleksei Dressen, detailed later “The Estonians have dealt with the in this article, shows that the extreme Russians, and before them the Soviets, limitation of trust principle must apply for so long, they intuitively understand to Estonians all the time and everywhere Russian intelligence culture and how – it is unknown whether there are more they operate.”1 Estonians do not hush up “sleepers” like this. The case of Vladimir nor minimize the cases of detained and Veitman, also detailed later, demonstrates deported Russian spies. In the annual that the burden of the Soviet past remains report on state security (“Aastaraamat”) a problem for the agencies themselves. issued since 1998, the Kaitsepolitsei exposes Russia’s operating methods, naming people and organizations The fact that Estonia (and showing photos) of those suspected of contacts with Russian intelligence. has one of the best This detailed report on the operation of the agency was the first publication of services in the East is its kind in the world. The fact that Estonia has one of the best services in the East attested to by its effective is attested to by its effective information warfare; not just in regards to making information warfare; not espionage cases public, but also the just in regards to making severity of justice: spies usually get the espionage cases public, maximum penalty. The KaPo vs. Heirs to the KGB but also the severity of Estonian counterintelligence is said to be one of the most effective in NATO, justice: spies usually get begging the question as to the reasons the maximum penalty. for his effectiveness. Starting from square one, using extreme vetting as well as the Since 2014 – probably in connection de-Sovietization of the security apparatus with the rapid increase in the Russian certainly helped. It could have gone threat – Estonians are dealing with hostile differently – which can be seen agents very firmly. In the case of higher- in the history of the activities of the main -level spies, the KaPo can build a case, Russian agent of influence in Estonia, gather intelligence and adjust operations Edgar Savisaar. When he became the accordingly over a longer timeframe. prime minister of the Estonian Socialist On the other hand, lower level informants, Soviet Republic (ESRR) in 1990, without access to state secrets, and not 1 M. Weiss, “The Estonian Spymasters: Tallinn’s holding important positions, but mainly Revolutionary Approach to Stopping Russian Spies,” dealing with observation, are quickly Foreign Affairs (June 3, 2014) accessed February stopped by the Estonians, put in jail 12, 2018, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ central-europe/2014-06-03/estonian-spymasters.

46 The Warsaw Institute Review Estonian Spy Hunters © Timur Nisametdinow (PAP/EPA) Tallinn, Estonia, March 3, 2003. Mayor of Tallinn, Edgar Savisaar. he created a special agency (Eriteenistus) – as the head of the Ministry of the independent of the Soviets, drawing on Interior – he used for surveillance former officers of the Ministry of the of members of the government, Interior of the ESRR. When Estonia including the president. regained its independence, Savisaar automatically became the prime minister When Estonia regained its independence, of the Republic of Estonia. In 1991, the authorities recognized former the Kaitsepolitsei was created, as officers of the Soviet intelligence services a completely new special agency, and the Baltic Military District as one independent of the Estonian KGB, of their main problems. This was and harkening back to pre-war traditions. especially important in creating However, Savisaar did not subordinate a new counterintelligence service. Later, it to Eriteenistus, and even began to staff some of them worked and served in the it with former KGB officers. In January institutions of the independent Estonia. 1992, Savisaar lost the post of prime The only specialists in the country minister, and Eriteenistus was on technical information gathering dissolved. A few years later, drawing techniques (wiretaps, etc.) had previously on former personnel, Savisaar created worked in the KGB. The KaPo leadership a private security agency SIA, which decided to reach out to them until they

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could train new experts. They included just the Federal Security Service (FSB), and about a dozen people, who were kept away the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU). from planning and managing operations. Although the GRU coordinates espionage Even so, after many years it turned out activities in the security sphere, the FSB that most of this group had ties with is also active in this area, primarily on the Russian intelligence. This shows that the border zone and at the informant level. special law adopted in 1995 to minimize They mainly recruited from smugglers the risks associated with former KGB and Russian-speaking Estonian residents agents could not fully solve this problem. who often travel to visit family in Russia. “The law on the procedure of registration Vladimir Putin’s presidential decree and disclosure of persons who served in of June 17, 2007, allowed Russians living the intelligence or counterintelligence in Estonia and Latvia to visit Russia services or armed forces of countries that without a visa. As a result, people with occupied Europe, or cooperated with these a Russian passport or a stateless person in Estonia can travel around both the EU and Russia without a visa, while citizens When Estonia regained of Estonia must apply for a paid visa. its independence, the A popular recruitment method used by the FSB is to enlist people who have authorities recognized connections with criminal circles. Illegal former officers of the crossing of the border by such persons, if only for smuggling, makes them Soviet intelligence an easy target. Insufficient control over the land border with Russia is one services and the Baltic of the biggest weak points for Estonian counterintelligence. Most of this border Military District as one runs through densely forested, hilly areas. of their main problems. Illegal crossings are not difficult, especially since the location of surveillance cameras organizations” led to many former Soviet is well-known to the Russians. security agents revealing the fact of their cooperation with the KGB, in exchange for In turn, the SVR controls more valuable immunity and anonymity. This seriously agents, often located in institutions with hampered Russia’s contact with them, the possibility of access to state secrets. although it did not completely eliminate Economic espionage is also a significant the possibility. In each of the infamous activity. However, all three services are espionage scandals of recent years, the FSB interested in NATO activities in Estonia, or SVR officers supervising or recruiting for example, allied troops residing in agents in Estonia, turned out to be former the country or occasional multinational KGB employees of the Republic (e.g. exercises. Moscow is especially interested Herman Simm and Vladimir Veitman in the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence were supervised by Valeri Zentsov and Centre of Excellence. Estonia’s foreign and Nikolai Yermakov). security policy, defense planning, mutual allied cooperation, development of armed Activities on Estonian territory and forces, defense industry, armaments and against Estonia are carried out by all three introduction of new technologies are of of Russia’s most important secret services: course subjects of interest to the Russians. the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Moscow is not only interested in the

48 The Warsaw Institute Review Estonian Spy Hunters

Estonian army, but also sees of being businessmen and journalists. a threat in the paramilitary Estonian Due to Moscow’s wariness of Estonian Defence League (Kaitseliit), Estonia’s counterintelligence, Russian case officers territorial self-defense force. The Russians usually meet their informants in third also gather up all possible information countries. about infrastructure. It is known that Russian diplomats catalogue and detail all the bridges in southern Estonia lying For the GRU, Estonia is on the east-west line. Their focus is upon structures along the expressway the “gateway” to NATO connecting the Russian border with the Baltic Sea and the strategic railway line. and knowledge about the whole alliance, as Allied troops are located and Due to Moscow’s international exercises wariness of Estonian are conducted there. counterintelligence, GRU Russian case officers In January 2017, the Estonian service usually meet their stopped a GRU employee. This was the first case in the modern history of the Baltic informants in third States that a Russian military intelligence officer was captured. It is known that he is a countries. Russian citizen, though this says little as to whether he lived permanently in Estonia. The Russians carry out espionage against He was convicted of spying and sentenced Estonia, both from their own territory in May 2017 to five years in prison. and from diplomatic missions. The centers that coordinate spy activity For the GRU, Estonia is the “gateway” are the embassy in Tallinn and the general to NATO and knowledge about the whole consulates in Tartu and Narva. Roughly alliance, as Allied troops are located and one-third of diplomats are suspected international exercises are conducted to be intelligence officers. What there. “The NATO Cooperative Cyber distinguishes the activities of Russian Defence Centre is one of the main objects “diplomats” in Estonia (and Lithuania of interest for our intelligence services in and Latvia) from the activity of their Estonia. We are also interested in NATO’s colleagues in Poland, for example, is that defense plans for the Baltic region in they not only collect valuable data the event of a deterioration of Russia’s for Moscow, but also conduct subversive relations with the alliance, in the event activities directed against the authorities. of military action. Since the Estonians However, as noted in recent KaPo reports, have been strongly integrated with the the nature of the agents’ cover is changing. NATO intelligence community and are Diplomatic status is increasingly rare, one of its active participants, they have while more and more often they are learned modern methods of work and illegals operating in the country conducting operations against Russia, so or agents operating under the cover this information is of great importance to

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us,” wrote Mikhail Aleksandrov, Director the outside and taking pictures of the Baltic Department at the Institute of the base and its personnel. About ten of the Commonwealth of Independent kilometers east of Eametsa lies the village States in Russia, in the pages of of Sindi. This village is mostly inhabited Kommersanta, in August 2013. by Russians. The Kaitsepolitsei knows that that among them Russian intelligence activity is particularly are people cooperating with Moscow. intensive during large NATO exercises conducted within Estonia. The GRU FSB then not only uses human intelligence The Federal Security Service, (HUMINT), but also, for example, a counterintelligence organization extensively deploys Spetsnaz (special was given the right to conduct foreign forces) drones. Many of these short-range, operations under Putin’s rule. However unmanned aerial vehicles, equipped with it has traditionally focused on the cameras, appeared in the Estonian sky border area (the FSB controls the border in April 2015 during the Trident Jaguar protection forces, as was the case with the joint-exercise. A year earlier, during KGB during the Soviet era) and the entire NATO special forces training in the post-Soviet sphere. Border guards run same region, the Russians activated two so-called “shallow intel” on the Estonian “telephone spectrum-towers”, with the side of the border. Activities against help of which they obtained the IMEI Estonia are handled by the FSB district numbers of NATO soldiers’ phones in departments in Pskov and St. Petersburg, the area of the exercises. Having such although the most important operations data makes possible the monitoring of (such as the kidnapping of KaPo officer special forces personnel movements. Eston Kohver in 2014) involve Moscow The headquarters of the aforementioned headquarters. In early 2007, Colonel special forces exercises was located in Andrei Lobanov of the St. Petersburg FSB the Eametsa base near Pärnu. This is one is known to have taken several attempts of the three Estonian military facilities to recruit Estonian citizens. Soon after, of greatest interest to Russia, aside from there were turbulent street riots stoked Vovu and Ämari (NATO planes are by Russian radicals under the pretext of defending the monument to Soviet soldiers in Tallinn. The Kaitsepolitsei did not obtain Russian intelligence evidence that Russian intelligence directly steered this operation (although they were activity is particularly responsible for a cyber-attack on Estonia that coincided with the riots). That said, intensive during it is known that intelligence officer- -diplomats met secretly with Russian large NATO exercises activists. It is also known that in Estonia conducted within at that time (April 30 – May 1) a delegation of the Duma (lower house of the Federal Estonia. Assembly of Russia) made a pre-planned visit. Among its members was Nikolay stationed there). In 2016 alone, Estonian Kovalyov, former director of the FSB. He counterintelligence recorded eleven gave local Russian activists detailed plans suspect incidents there; these generally for the area around the monument, with involved suspiciously slow-moving cars the locations of deployed police units. and cases of people video recording from

50 The Warsaw Institute Review Estonian Spy Hunters

The FSB is interested in virtually everything Code (“conspiracy against the Republic in Estonia, from its internal policy and of Estonia”). That same month, the security apparatus to foreign policy and KaPo apprehended another spy, Maksim the military. Not only are officials and Gruzdev. This citizen of Estonia, like agents targets, but so are journalists and Rudnev, started cooperating with the FSB businessmen. The FSB tries to recruit in 2013, he signed a commitment agents among Estonian residents who visit to cooperate in the second half of that year Russia (so-called “territorial intelligence”). in the Pskov Oblast which borders Estonia. It is faster and easier to identify and then Gruzdev reported on the staff and activities recruit someone on your own territory, of the Estonian security and investigative especially if such a person happens agencies. His espionage activity also to break the law in Russia. The FSB then included the KaPo. He was sentenced has the option of discreet access to such to four years in prison in February 2016 a person, forcing them to cooperate by the Tartu District Court, also under through blackmail. The high-risk group, paragraph 2351. from the point of view of the KaPo, are Russian-speaking residents on the border Stopped in 2015, Pawel Romanov had areas who often travel to Russia. a much longer spying career than Gruzdev and Rudnev. This Russian According to official data from Estonian living in Estonia was a stateless person. authorities, in 2015–2016 alone, five FSB He was recruited by the Russian Federal spies, residents of Estonia, were arrested Counterintelligence Service (FSK) and sentenced to prison. Three have dual citizenship (Estonian and Russian), one only an Estonian passport, and one The FSB is interested in is stateless. None of them are ethnic Estonians. In a matter of months, virtually everything in they were all swiftly sentenced to several years in prison. Estonia, from its internal

Arrested in March 2015, Aleksandr policy and security Rudnev, a dual citizen, had worked apparatus to foreign for the FSB since 2013. In exchange for money, he collected information policy and the military. on the Estonian army and its NATO allies. He was interested in unit movements, in 1994 (the FSK later transformed into the situation in the bases, and equipment. the FSB). Romanov was an experienced He took photos and made videos, and smuggler, and thus an invaluable source of then showed them to his handlers. Rudnev knowledge for the Russians on the illegal was also interested in everything related crossing of the Estonian-Russian border. to border protection. He collected and He collected information about the transmitted information on border guard border guard posts and their personnel, posts and officers from the Southern responsibilities, methods of operation and Prefectural Police and Border Guard borderland tactics in the south of Estonia. (in Estonia, the police and border guards Thanks to this agent, the Russians knew are one institution). In October 2015, the location of surveillance cameras in the Rudnev was convicted by the Tartu forested sections of the border. It is also district court to two years in prison known that the FSB received information under paragraph 2351 of the Criminal from Romanov about military

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activity (paragraph 2016/1) and so upon the decision of the court was placed in Romanov was an pre-trial detention. Vasilyev was just 20 years old and came from the village experienced smuggler, of Kingisepp in the Leningrad district, located near the border. He graduated and thus an invaluable from elementary school there, then moved source of knowledge to high school in Sillamäe in Estonia, where he learned computer programming. for the Russians on the After three years he went to Russia for a period of time, officially for work, illegal crossing of the but most likely it’s then that he underwent training in the FSB. Already in the Estonian-Russian border. summer of 2017, he returned to Estonia, installations in southern Estonia. to Kohtla-Järve, to a branch of the Tallinn The district court in Tartu sentenced University of Technology, majoring Romanov to four years and 10 months in computer and systems engineering. in prison for “non-violent acts committed by a foreigner against the The Dressen Case Republic of Estonia” (paragraph 233 On February 22, 2012 at Tallinn airport, of the Criminal Code). According to counterintelligence officers detained Aleksei the information provided by the KaPo, and Viktoria Dressen. The woman, who two more FSB agents were detained boarded a plane flying to Moscow, had and sentenced in 2016, both of whom secret materials on a memory stick which were dual citizens and had spied for she had received moments earlier in the money. Artyom Malyshev was recruited departures hall from her husband. Prior by Russian intelligence in 2011. He to 1991, Aleksei Dressen worked in the provided information on the activities of militia, where he was most likely contacted the Estonian army and its allies, on the by the KGB, and contacts were renewed movement of military equipment and years later by the FSB. In 1993, Dressen border posts. He was convicted under moved from the police to the KaPo. For the aforementioned paragraph 2351, over a decade, he worked in the department to two and a half years in prison. Alik fighting economic crime. The FSB recruited Chuczbarow had worked for the FSB since him as a result of a long-term operation 2012. He provided information about (1998–2001). The Russians took advantage the activities of the border guards of the fact that Dressen vacationed with at the Piusa post. He was given a total relatives of his wife in Russia. He began to of three years in prison. actively cooperate with the FSB in 2007 – at the time changing his profile and beginning FSB spying activity in Estonia, however, to deal in the KaPo with the investigation does not just include small-scale of extremists, including Russians. Dressen smugglers. On November 4, 2017, during worked for the FSB Counterintelligence an attempt to cross the border on the Board (DKRO), the cell carrying out bridge in Narva, the KaPo stopped Alexei operations aimed at the security services of Vasilyev, a Russian citizen studying other countries. The main roles in recruiting in Estonia. Two days later, he heard and then supervising him were played by the official allegations against him two FSB officers: Major General Evgeny of espionage activity (paragraph 233 Tiazkun and Colonel Mikhail Loginov. of the Criminal Code) and cybercriminal Dressen usually met with his case officer

52 The Warsaw Institute Review Estonian Spy Hunters © Aldo Luud (PAP/EPA) Tartu, Estonia, September 26, 2015. Estonian security officer Eston Kohver arrives for a press conference. Kohver, who was convicted of espionage in Russia, was exchanged for imprisoned Russian spy Aleksei Dressen. According to reports, the prisoners were swapped in southeastern Estonia at the border with Russia. Eston Kohver was sentenced to fifteen years in Prison on August 19, 2015, after being found guilty of espionage and illegally crossing the Russian border, following a closed-door trial. in exotic countries where he vacationed. did not flaunt their wealth, but hoarded From 2002 to 2009, these were in order: it. During the search of the Dressen home, Cyprus, Turkey, Tunisia, Malaysia, investigators found 20,000 euros the Dominican Republic and Morocco. hidden in cash. Dressen was also initially in Moscow, but only until the transition to his activities It is difficult to assess the true scale against extremists. From then on, like of damage to Estonia’s security caused many of his colleagues at the KaPo, he was by the Dressen’s activities. The Russians formally banned from traveling to Russia. certainly obtained extensive knowledge His wife Viktoria took on the role of courier. of the KaPo’s actions towards Russian Under the guise of business activities, she radicals. But did the traitor in the ranks often traveled to Moscow. The Dressens of Estonian counterintelligence give worked for the FSB for money. However, Moscow something more? The mere they masked themselves very well, as they fact that the Russians picked him in

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The KaPo officer had been lured into a borderland forest and kidnapped by the FSB The mere fact that in September 2014. Despite the protests of Estonia and its Western allies, Kohver the Russians picked was convicted of spying and sentenced him in exchange for to fifteen years in prison. His exchange for Dressen occurred on September 26, the kidnapped and 2015 on the border crossing bridge convicted KaPo officer at Kuniczina Gora. SVR: Politics and Business Eston Kohver, suggests The Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) gathers information in Estonia of a political that Dressen was a very as well as an economic nature. There are two areas of the economy that most valuable agent for the FSB. interest Russian spies: the transit business exchange for the kidnapped and convicted (one of the most important sectors of the KaPo officer Eston Kohver, suggests that Estonian economy) and energy. One of Dressen was a very valuable agent for the the focuses of Russia’s intelligence activity FSB. It is worth paying attention to the is known to be oil shale processing and information that the state press agency extraction technology. The Russians’ task is Interfax conveyed on the occasion of this made easier in that the Virumaa industrial exchange. It cited an anonymous source region, where shale extraction is currently from Russian intelligence, who said that taking place, is the most Russified part of in the 1990s Dressen worked for Russian Estonia and borders Russia. Large strategic counterintelligence, obtaining information enterprises that are attractive to industrial on the intelligence operations of the spies operate there such as Viru Keemia United States and Great Britain in the Grupp or Eesti Energia Õlitööstus. Baltic States, specifically: “For 20 years in the Estonian special services, Dressen The Constitutional Party, bringing together obtained and handed over to Moscow a Russian Estonians, formed to enter into huge amount of valuable documents on the parliament after the 2007 elections, was secret operations of the American CIA and a project of the SVR. The leader of the British MI-6 against Russia directed from party was Andrei Zarenkov, one of the the Baltic states.” According to that source, leaders of the riots in Tallinn in 2007, Dressen managed to uncover many foreign and the protégé of Tatyana Poloskova, intelligence agents operating in Russia, as a collaborator with Russian intelligence well as to thwart the attempts of Western and head of the OKA Foundation. The intelligence to recruit senior Russian Constitutional Party received direct officials as agents. On July 3, 2012, the support from Russian diplomats. It did not District Court in Harju found the Dressens add up to much as the group won just one guilty of treason and the transfer of secret percent of the vote. SVR activity increased information to a foreign agency. Aleksei markedly after June 1, 2007, when the visa Dressen was given sixteen years in prison agreement between the EU and Russia while Viktoria received six years, though was simplified. Article 11 of the agreement her sentence was later suspended. But just provides the owners of diplomatic three years later, in September 2015, Dressen passports with entry into the EU without regained his freedom. Estonia exchanged a visa and the possibility of staying in him for their agent, Eston Kohver. an EU country for up to ninety days

54 The Warsaw Institute Review Estonian Spy Hunters within a six-month period. This way SVR several very expensive plots. He explained officers under diplomatic cover gained his very good financial condition, to greater freedom of movement, which they colleagues for example, as resulting from immediately began to use. Soon after, in money he was supposed to have received June 2007, an officer of the SVR political from relatives in the West. But it was not intelligence board, Vladimir Pozdorovkin, the money that caused the first suspicions appeared at a conference in Tallinn. towards Simm. In 2000, the head of military In 2010 alone, twenty-two visa applications intelligence, Major Riho Juhtegi, asked the were submitted by people who the KaPo head of KaPo (Inspector Jüri Pihl) to check suspected of ties with Russian intelligence. Simm, because he was very interested in military intelligence, which was not The Simm Case at all within the scope of his authority The most valuable SVR agent in Estonia as a defense ministry official. If the traitor was Herman Simm. Over the course of could have been unmasked then, Estonia more than ten years of cooperation, he gave and NATO would have avoided heavy losses. the Russians about three thousand secret Meanwhile, in 2001, Simm was promoted documents pertaining not only to Estonian to the head of the newly created security security, but to NATO as a whole. Simm department at the Ministry of Defense, (b. 1947) worked in the militia of Soviet gaining access to all state secrets. Estonia from 1970. In the 1980s, having risen to the rank of criminal inspector, he went to In 2004, Estonia joined NATO and Moscow to study at the Ministry of Internal its system of protection of classified Affairs Academy of the USSR. Like many information had to be integrated with allied Estonians, he earned a side income by selling systems. Simm got the task of creating Western clothing smuggled from Finland. the Department of National Defense, as He was caught, and the KGB gave him a part of the Ministry of Defense, and, as its choice: either disciplinary dismissal from head, became the most important Estonian the militia or secret cooperation. He chose official responsible for protecting classified the latter. In 1991, Estonia regained its information. He then also had access to all independence, the USSR collapsed and the the secrets that NATO members shared. KGB dissolved. After several years of work He regularly went to NATO headquarters in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the in Brussels. He acquired friends, was widely police, Simm ended up in the Ministry of liked and appreciated by his superiors, but Defense. also emphasized his anti-Russian views at every opportunity. Absolutely beyond If he hoped that he had been forgotten suspicion, in 2006 he received a medal from by Moscow, he was wrong. In 1995, SVR the president for “service to the Estonian officers showed up. As he later testified at people”. In the same year he got a medal his trial, they blackmailed him, threatening from his Russian superiors and – according to reveal the fact of his cooperation with the to unconfirmed reports – a secret promotion KGB, so Simm decided to work for Russian to the rank of major general of the SVR. This intelligence. Although he later explained that is when Western intelligence caught wind he fell victim to blackmail, he managed to of the trail of the spy. earn a lot from cooperation with Moscow. He took in an average of one thousand euros Information revealed later during the a month from the Russians with bonuses for Simm trial and the report published by the particularly important information. When prosecutor’s office shows that the SVR was he was detained, Simm and his wife Heeta managing its valuable agent very carefully. were the owners of seven properties and Russian diplomats in Estonia were not

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involved as they were closely observed by coming to Estonia passed through the hands Estonian counterintelligence. Simm met of a traitor. Internal investigations into with his case officers Valeri Zentsov and potential damage caused by the Estonian Sergei Yakovlev several times a year in were initiated by Norway, France and various EU countries outside of Estonia. Germany. A rule had been adopted that they met each time in a different place. Yakovlev was an The trial took place behind closed doors. On illegal alien, so he used the false identity February 25, 2009, Simm was sentenced to of a Portuguese businessman called Jesus twelve and a half years in prison and a fine Amoretta Graf. It was through him that of $1.7 million. He avoided the maximum Western intelligence found the trail to sentence (fifteen years) because during Simm. Yakovlev was put under surveillance the investigation he pleaded guilty and after an unsuccessful attempt to recruit cooperated with prosecutors. The KaPo an important official in one of the NATO leadership later revealed that the knowledge countries in southern Europe. In 2006, gained in the Simm case helped to uncover Simm lost the position of the head of the another Russian spy. security department in the Ministry of Defense, but remained as the minister’s The Veitman Case adviser where he could copy and pass Vladimir Veitman was a retired KaPo on confidential analyses to the Russians. employee when he was arrested in August 2013, but more importantly, he had previously worked in the KGB ESRR. The report from NATO’s He was an eavesdropping specialist. When the KaPo was formed, the internal investigation management of the new service decided that only a dozen or so “technical” described Herman Simm employees, former KGB functionaries, as the most harmful would be hired as no alterative uncompromised personnel could be Russian spy against the found. The people who were carried over from the KGB were to be kept away from alliance in history. sensitive information and from planning In cooperation with its allies, the KaPo and managing operations. Their function patiently collected evidence against Simm. was to perform technical tasks and only Finally, they slipped him a prepared when it was absolutely necessary. Veitman document containing specific information. joined the KaPo in December 1991. His When Western intelligence was sure that good friend from the KGB days, was Nikolai this information was in the possession of the Yermakov (b. 1948). From 1975–1991 he Russians, Simm was taken down. He was served in the Estonian KGB, and after it detained on September 21, 2008, together was dissolved, he took up business – often with his wife who knew about his spying travelling between Estonia and Russia. He activity. For many months after the Estonian was a citizen of Russia, but with permission was arrested, a special team assessed the to stay in Estonia, but most importantly, scale of the damage caused to the alliance he cooperated with the SVR. For many by Simm. The report from NATO’s internal years, Yermakov had no idea that Veitman investigation described Herman Simm as was working at the KaPo. It lasted until the the most harmful Russian spy against the Estonian let it slip while complaining about alliance in history. Between 2004–2006 all his family problems. Yermakov reported documents from NATO and allied countries about this to his superiors in SVR, and they

56 The Warsaw Institute Review Estonian Spy Hunters decided to take advantage of this access. a real threat. Information is not a goal but Veitman did not notify his superiors in the a tool. The goal is not information, KaPo when the Russians began to carefully but influence”– in the words of Martin probe whether he would agree to cooperate. Arpo, a high ranking KaPo officer. In the end, Yermakov convinced his friend – mainly by financial incentives – to work Reporters sent from Russia often have a for Russian intelligence in 2002. Yermakov second job: in intelligence. They produce was to be Veitman’s contact, who in turn was content and reports according to scripts supervised by SVR officer Valeri Zentsov, written earlier at headquarters. According who earlier (until 2001) supervised Simm. to a counterintelligence report: “They all Zentsov (b. 1946) was a veteran of the ESRR paint the image of post-soviet Estonia KGB (1969–1991), and after the dissolution as an economically, socially and culturally of the KGB, he continued his service in degenerated country on the periphery Russian intelligence. He met Veitman only of Europe, where neo-Nazism flourishes, once, in August 2007 in Dubrovnik, Croatia. and the Russian-speaking population is Arrested six years later, Veitman was found discriminated against” (Aastaraamat 2010, guilty of treason and sentenced to fifteen Kaitsepolitsei). It is not much better with years in prison and a penalty of 120,000 the Russian-language media in Estonia, euros – the amount that Veitman was to which is full of agents. For example, have earned over a decade of spying activity. the magazine Baltijskij mir is indirectly financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Agents of Influence of Russia, and its editor-in-chief, a former In a very recent KaPo annual report, the correspondent of the Regnum News very beginning references the so-called Agency, Dmitry Kondraszov, is, according “doctrine of Gerasimov” (Chief of the to the KaPo, a person associated with General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russian intelligence. In turn, the owner of the Russian Federation), who speaks of the Tarbeinfo publishing house is Vladimir conducting war with non-military means Ilyazhevich, a former officer of the First to reduce the “readiness, will and values” Main Directorate of the Committee for of the opponent. The threat from Russia is State Security of the USSR (KGB foreign more than just classic espionage. Therefore, intelligence), and an active member of the in addition to the counterintelligence fight Russian-speaking community in Estonia. against agents, the KaPo pays particular attention to monitoring business and The media is an important part of Moscow’s media environments. Estonians carefully intelligence battle against Estonia. Effective monitor who wants to invest in their counteraction is difficult because about country, where, and the origin of the forty percent of ethnic Russians in Estonia capital funds of the registered entity. After do not speak any Estonian, and two-thirds all, it was Putin himself in December of them do not come into contact with the 2010 who stressed that it was necessary to Estonian media at all. The Russian media is defend Russian business abroad and that a powerful instrument for manipulating it was necessary to use the technical and the awareness of a very large part of Estonia’s intellectual potential of Russian intelligence Russians: research conducted in 2014 shows to realize the country’s economic interests. that in the case of conflicting reports, only Intelligence activity carried out through six percent of them believe the Estonian media and journalists is even more media. Most trust the Russian media. dangerous. “The Russians will do nothing militarily without creating an internal Grzegorz Kuczyński threat – or the impression of one, absent December 15, 2017

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Kazakhstan: An “Inhuman Land” Increasingly Human

Piotr Kościński When in 1936, Poles from Soviet Ukraine, and later from the areas of eastern Poland seized by the USSR during World War II, were deported to Kazakhstan; they called this country the “inhuman land.” Today, while repatriations back to Poland are being organized on the basis of a new law, Kazakhstan is changing for the better and living there is increasingly easy.

58 The Warsaw Institute Review Kazakhstan: An “Inhuman Land” Increasingly Human

Operation of the NKVD took place, during which 111,000 Poles were arrested under falsified charges and killed.

Professor Henryk Stroński (University of Warmia and Mazury), a historian dealing with the history of the Polish population in Ukraine, estimates the number of people forcibly sent to Kazakhstan at 60,000 (Germans were also expelled from the border area).1 They were sent mainly to northern and central Kazakhstan.

The deportees were dropped off on the steppe and ordered to build villages. And so, about one-hundred kilometers west of the Kazakh capital of Astana, “toczki” (points) were created, that were separated from one another by several kilometers: 10 – later named Kamianka, 11 – Kamyszenka, 12 – Pierwomajka, 13 – Łozowoje, 14 – Priiszymka.2 In the north, Oziornoje, Jasna Polana, Zielony Gaj and other settlements were established. Astana, Kazakhstan, June 9, 2017. The deportees first built tents and The Khan Shatyr Entertainment Center. dugouts, then houses from saman (dried clay bricks). They could not leave their © Zoltan Balogh (PAP/EPA) villages and they remained under special supervision until the 1950s.

rom 1935, the authorities in After the Soviet attack on Poland on Moscow shut down almost all September 17, 1939, thousands more institutions in the Soviet Union people were deported from the seized tied to the Polish minority, areas of eastern Poland to Kazakhstan Fespecially those in Belarus and Ukraine: (the republic itself became a giant prison schools, libraries and newspapers, as well for the entire USSR). Of the survivors, as two Polish national regions. In 1936, most of them managed to return to large-scale resettlements of Poles from Poland after the war. Only a small number the broad border region of Soviet Ukraine of those deported in 1936 returned took place. What was the reason? First of to Ukraine. After Kazakhstan gained all, the attempt to indoctrinate the Polish independence, several thousand Poles left minority failed. Poles did not want to 1 “Deportacje ludności polskiej do Kazachstanu join the Communist Party and collective w 1936 roku. Zarys historyczny”, Kancelaria Senatu farms, they also reacted negatively to RP, (2015), accessed January 8, 2018, http://senat. churches being closed and the arrest gov.pl/gfx/senat/pl/senatekspertyzy/3388/plik/oe- 247_inter.pdf. of priests. After the deportations 2 P. Kościński, “Toczka 12 się zmienia”, Idziemy (1937–1938) the so-called Polish (nr 30, 2017).

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for Poland and Russia, where relocation the Bayterek (in Kazakh – “Topola”) was relatively easy. Currently, there are Tower monument is located, the symbol still over 30,000 Poles in Kazakhstan. This, of the city, meant to embody the Kazakh among other reasons, is why the Central folk tale about the mythical tree of life Asian republic is important for Poland. and the magical bird of happiness. Kazakhstan also remains an important At the other end of the axis is the huge player in both the post-Soviet sphere presidential palace, surrounded by various and throughout Asia. government facilities.

Rich Astana Moving away from this new city center Arriving in Astana (in Kazakh the name to the south along Qabanbay Batyr means “capital”) one might get the Avenue, we reach the vast headquarters impression that they have arrived in one of the University of Nazarbayev, founded of the richest countries in the world. It is in 2010 and a symbol of the development true that in the old part of the city there are of education in the country. Opposite it is still some quite provincial streets, but old another giant shopping and entertainment Astana, formerly known as Akmoly (from center, Mega Silk Way, whose roof and Akmola – in Kazakh “a white grave”), walls are covered with a special material Tselinograd (from Russian – “city on fallow resistant to temperatures down to minus land”) and finally Akmola, with its multi- fifty degrees Celsius. This facility is even story Soviet style houses, is now the less bigger than Khan Shatyr with an area important part of the city. A completely of 140,000 square meters and half new cityscape, located mostly to the south a kilometer long. Behind it is the unusual of the Ishim River, dominates the capital. and futuristic Expo 2017 complex. In buildings covering an area of twenty- -five hectares, over one-hundred Arriving in Astana countries, including Poland, staged exhibitions from June 10 until September (in Kazakh the name 10, 2017. Dedicated to the energy industry of the future, the Expo was unquestionably means “capital”) one a great success: there were two and half million visitors; thanks to the exhibition, might get the impression the number of hotels and hostels in the city increased by twenty-seven percent, that they have arrived and 200,000 people were employed in the construction of exhibition facilities. It is in one of the richest estimated that revenues to the city budget countries in the world. from hotels and restaurants increased up to two and a half times in the three-month period of the Expo.3 One of the symbols of the Kazakh capital is the huge Khan Shatyr (“Royal Oil Decides Marquee”) Entertainment Center, with Astana’s rapid expansion was possible only an area of 127,000 square meters and a thanks to the economy. Kazakhstan has height of 150 meters, where, in addition been developing rapidly for years largely to numerous shops and restaurants, there is also a monorail and a beach with sand 3 “EXPO 2017: the deferred economic effect”, EXPO 2017, (December 2017), accessed January imported from the Maldives. The Khan 8, 2018, https://expo2017astana.com/en/page_ Shatyr is at the end of the axis on which id=2113&news_id=1898.

60 The Warsaw Institute Review Kazakhstan: An “Inhuman Land” Increasingly Human

© Marcin Obara (PAP) Astana, Kazakhstan, September 5, 2017. due to the sale of crude oil, which of course means a dependence on its global prices. After a difficult period in 2015– Kazakhstan has been –2016, when GDP only grew at 1.2 and 1.1 percent annually, there was a definite developing rapidly for improvement in 2017. According to the years largely due to the World Bank, in the first nine months of 2017, GDP rose to 4.3 percent, compared sale of crude oil, which to 0.4 percent in the same period in 2016.4 The main growth factor is still oil, whose of course means production in said period increased by 12.5 percent, especially thanks to the a dependence activation of the new Kashagan Field on its global prices. in October 2016. This deposit is located in the northern Caspian Sea, near the Kazakh city of Atyrau – it is estimated Oil prices have also risen again that it contains up to 10.5 billion tons of (by twenty-four percent), which oil. Apart from the Kazakh KazMunaiGas, has helped the Kazakh economy. shares in the North Caspian Operating Company, which operates the field, are The authorities in Astana are striving owned by Italians, French, Americans, however to ensure that oil is not the only British, Dutch, Chinese and Japanese.5 driving force of the country’s economy. They are aiming at the development

4 “Kazakhstan’s Economy is Rising – It is Still All of other sectors, including agriculture, About Oil”, The World Bank, (December 14, 2017), as well as improving the trade deficit. accessed January 8, 2018, http://www.worldbank. As a result, GDP growth estimates for all org/en/country/kazakhstan/publication/economic- update-fall-2017. of 2017 can be revised from 2.4 to 3.7 5 NCOC, (December 2017), accessed January 10, percent, although in the long-term 2018, http://www.ncoc.kz/ru/ncoc/default.aspx. the increase is estimated at three

1/2018 61 Eastern Report Olivier Douliery (PAP/EPA) Douliery © Olivier Washington D.C., United States, January 16, 2018. President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan speaks during a joint press conference with U.S. of market-based land sales, optimization President Donald J. Trump in the Roosevelt Room of tax and customs policies and procedures, of the White House. gradual abandonment of the state monopoly on assessing design percent annually. Much depends on the documentation, abandonment of old, effects of structural and institutional Soviet norms for European standards, reforms carried out under the so-called strengthening the institution of the “100 specific steps”. business ombudsman to protect the interests of entrepreneurs and attracting In 2015, President Nursultan Nazarbayev strategic investors in several industries announced the implementation of five (e.g. road infrastructure and tourism, major reforms: creation of a modern and milk and meat production).7 professional civil service, ensuring the rule of law, industrialization and economic To what extent are these plans being growth, a unified nation for the future implemented? They are being met with and transparency and accountability of unexpected obstacles, as discussed in the the state.6 He incorporated them into the last section of this article. The privatization already mentioned “one hundred steps”. program is moving very slowly. In 2016, In the section concerning economic it was announced that within two years, matters, there is talk of the introduction many key, state-owned enterprises would be sold, while the state-owned “Samruk-

6 “Plan natsii – 100 shagov po realizatsii piati insti- -Kazyna” sovereign wealth fund, would tutsionalnykh reform N. Nazarbayeva”, Kazinform, leave itself a blocking share of twenty-five (May 20, 2015), accessed January 8, 2018, http:// percent plus one share and that fifty-one www.inform.kz/kz/plan-nacii-100-shagov-po-reali- zacii-pyati-institucional-nyh-reform-n-nazarbaeva_ a2777943. 7 Ibid.

62 The Warsaw Institute Review Kazakhstan: An “Inhuman Land” Increasingly Human percent of shares must remain in the hands vehicles. Not only is the poor quality of of Kazakh investors. However at the end materials to blame, but also long and very of 2017,“Samruk-Kazyna” announced harsh winters, frosts with temperatures that preliminary work was still underway, reaching minus forty-five degrees Celsius, and that privatization might begin in the snowstorms and spring thaws. second half of 2018. Among the companies prepared for this are Air Astana and The countryside is changing very slowly, Kazatomprom, an importer and exporter but it is changing. Nevertheless, the old of uranium and other fuel components houses remain as they were, although there for nuclear power plants.8 The Astana are very few clay brick buildings left. International Financial Center (located The villages are usually very far apart, in buildings left after the Expo 2017), because there is plenty of room on the which is to co-organize privatization, steppe. One-story houses dominate, is also just in the early stages of surrounded by gardens where potatoes development. It is almost certain and vegetables are grown; taller buildings that the implementation of this very are very rare. What distinguishes these ambitious plan will take much longer villages from European ones are the than originally intended. omnipresent electric poles. The cables that have disappeared underground in The Increasingly Modern Europe hang high here, often crossing Countryside and creating strange, interwoven networks. That said, the capital is just a fragment of Kazakhstan and it is enough to leave The main problem is still the weather. Astana and drive slightly away from the “The climate was once worse than now,” beautiful roads to see that it is different says the Akim (head of the village) in the countryside. The first thing you of Pierwomajki, Vyacheslav Dembicki. will notice after leaving the expressways “Now the temperature of minus thirty-five is the quality of the roads, which is simply to forty-two degrees lasts only a week, terrible. According to the ranking prepared and then it is only minus twenty-five. Once, by the World Economic Forum, Kazakh a strong frost kept for months,” he adds. But roads rank 115 out of 137 countries winter in Kazakhstan lasts from September assessed.9 The “Road quality map”10 to May. In the remaining months there is available online, and mainly shows is a very short and intense summer. This highways and expressways connecting means that agriculture, the basis of village main cities. The villages, however, can functioning, can normally only exist for be reached primarily by side roads that a few months. In the remaining period, were once even covered with asphalt, cattle must be kept in heated barns. but have fallen into total disrepair and can only be reliably traversed by off-road After the collapse of the Soviet Union, kolkhozy (collective farms) and sovkhozy 8 “Privatizatsiya natskompaniy Kazakhstana ozhet nachatsiya vo II polovinye 2018”, CA-portal, (state-owned farms) ceased to exist; if there (November 16, 2017), accessed January 8, 2018, were waterworks, usually they stopped http://www.ca-portal.ru/article:38946. working, if there was a sewage system, 9 “Dorogi Kazachstana priznane odnimi iż khudshikh v mirie”, NUR KZ (November 1, it also broke down. In Pierwomajka, the 2017), accessed January 8, 2018, https://www.nur. land of the kolkhoz was divided among kz/1663980-dorogi-kazakhstana-priznany-odnimi- former collective farmers, formally iz.html. speaking, cooperators, and thus co-owners 10 Autoturist.KZ o dorgakh i putyeshesviyakh, accessed January 9, 2018, http://autotourist.kz/index. of the entire land. Later, the villagers leased php/routes. it to a company owned by a private farmer,

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encompassing up to 30,000 hectares. unless we compare it to Belarus. At present, In Europe this would be a gigantic farm. supreme state power rests in the hands “Our farm can be profitable if it has at of the 77-year-old president Nursultan least two-thousand hectares of land,” Nazarbayev, who was the first secretary emphasized Akim Dembicki. of the local communist party in the USSR. Nazarbayev, however, is gradually reducing In the countryside, schools and pre-schools the scope of his power. In a nationwide have changed the most in recent times. TV message on January 25, 2017, he You can see that the authorities have spent announced the transfer of some of his a lot of money. The school in Pierwomajka powers to the parliament and government. is renovated and clean, and there are free Kazakhstan is to become textbooks for every student in the library. a parliamentary-cabinet republic, while The kindergarten, divided into five groups – the president is to become an arbiter, four Polish age groups and one Kazakh – although he will continue to set foreign is also renovated and spotless. Each group and defense policy for the country. has two rooms, in one are cots and in the other are chairs, tables and toys, and there Even if implemented slowly, this change is a separate playground outside. You can see is very serious and has huge consequences. that a lot of effort has been invested into the The Freedom House organization, dealing development of children and young people. with human rights, defines the political If the countryside continues to change as system in the country as a “consolidated much as the schools and pre-schools, then authoritarian regime” and on a scale there will be fewer and fewer people willing from 1 (most democratic) to 7 (the least to leave. democratic) awarded Kazakhstan 6.64 points.11 In turn, the Democracy Index in 2016 showed Kazakhstan in 139th place (out of 167), just behind Russia (134) After the collapse of the and China (136), but ahead of Azerbaijan (148), Uzbekistan (158) and Turkmenistan Soviet Union, kolkhozy (162).12

(collective farms) and It must be remembered that in the lower sovkhozy (state-owned house of parliament (Majilis) the president’s party, Nur Otan, has the majority, farms) ceased to exist; 84 out of 107 seats, while the “constructive opposition” Naghyz Ak Zhol and the if there were waterworks, communists have 7 each; this means that until there are changes in the party system, usually they stopped political changes will be more of a formality. working, if there was In December 2017, a miners’ strike was a sewage system, it also carried out in the mines belonging to broke down. ArcelorMittal. A few hundred of them 11 Kazakhstan Country Profile, Freedom House, Authoritarianism in the 2018, accessed January 9, 2018, https://freedom- Background house.org/report/nations-transit/2017/kazakhstan. 12 Democracy Index 2016, accessed January 9, 2018, It should be remembered that politics in https://infographics.economist.com/2017/Democracy Kazakhstan are far different than in Europe, Index/.

64 The Warsaw Institute Review Kazakhstan: An “Inhuman Land” Increasingly Human

© Marcin Obara (PAP) Astana, Kazachstan, September 8, 2017. Expo 2017. stopped their work, demanding a thirty- The question is how much the planned -percent wage hike. Besides this, last year changes might disturb the current, stable was basically calm, unlike in 2016, when situation in Kazakhstan. The authoritarian there were serious riots related to the rule of Nazarbayev has one positive effect: government’s land privatization plans. it provides stability. There are no ethnic Part of society was afraid that the disputes there, although “Kazakhization” possibility of selling land to foreigners is proceeding, for example, through the meant that it would go to the Chinese.13 requirement for non-Kazakhs to learn the Anti-Chinese sentiments flooded social Kazakh language (planned alongside this media, often repeating the falsehood that is the replacement of Cyrillic with the Latin a large part of Kazakhstan would alphabet). There are no religious disputes, be turned over to Chinese settlers. Hence and although the dominant religion is the outbreak of riots in Atyrau and Aktobe Islam, Islamists are not a threat. According in April. The government was forced to the Global Terrorism Index, Kazakhstan to suspend its plans. Another wave is 94th in terms of threat (the lower, of protests swept through in May. However, the safer), while Russia is 40th, the U.S. unlike in 2011 in Zhanaozen, where police 36th, and neighboring Kyrgyzstan 84th.15 killed fifteen people during the riots, police For now, however, Kazakhstan is changing activities were relatively mild.14 gradually and slowly, becoming a better place to live and definitely more human, 13 B. Pannier, Majlis Podcast: “Kazakhstan’s Protests, than in the past. One Year Later”, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (April 30, 2017), accessed January 9, 2018, https:// www.rferl.org/a/qishloq-ovozi-kazakhstan-protests- Piotr Kościński -one-year/28460322.html. January 15, 2018 14 E. Marat, “Kazakhstan had huge protests, but no violent crackdown. Here’s why”, Washingtoin Post, (June 6, 2016), accessed January 9, 2018, https://www.wash- ingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/06/06/ 15 Global Terrorism Index 2016, accessed January 9, kazakhstan-had-big-protests-without-a-violent-crack- 2018, http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/up- down-heres-why/?utm_term=.82398df1443e. loads/2016/11/Global-Terrorism-Index-2016.2.pdf.

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The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Future of Jihadism Marcin Orłowski Much is said about the reforms to be initiated by Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman.

evertheless, there is a risk economic, social and territorial structures that despite the likely mixed of the Middle East. Jihadism is also not success of many economic divided, instead only dispersed. Saudi and social projects, the Arabia, despite its financial wealth, is Nsuccessor to the throne may not be able one of the countries most at risk of to meet societal expectations. Signals of jihadism. The wealthiest elites can afford this are already visible in the Saudi Vision to have relaxed moral standards after all. 2030 plan. This report proposes, for From their point of view, the jihadists example, the privatization of education, who often threatened the Saudi Arabian an area that has been dominated by the regime are (speaking in terms familiar clerics. Many of them have not hid their to us) nothing but deistic communists extremism and successfully recruited proclaiming liberation theology. jihadists. Will the change from state to private patronage however turn out Jihadism – do we really to be disastrous? understand it well? The beginnings of Islamism and jihadism Popularly, jihadism is considered to be date back to the 1920s and 1960s, linked with Western interference, but it respectively, and the date of the appearance turns out that it is not the main cause of its of global jihadism is considered 1979. formation. It is the result of defects in the This is due to the following criteria:

66 The Warsaw Institute Review Ukraine: Freedom in the Shadow of Corruption

© Amel Pain (PAP/EPA) Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, February 17, 2018. Portraits of Saudi Arabian kings decorate the wall of a house at the Al Sharqiya (Eastern) Province pavilion during the Al-Jenadriyah festival, the biggest cultural heritage event in Saudi Arabia

• the founding of the pan-Islamizing Saudi Arabia, despite (communizing) Muslim Brotherhood organization in Egypt in 1928; its financial wealth, • popularization of Muslim thought and schools sanctioning violence is one of the countries in the 1960s; • the engagement of Muslim fighters most at risk of jihadism. in the war in Afghanistan in 1979.

It has been popularly accepted that States from the Middle East, where they global jihadism in the last four decades supported the rule of “apostates.” The has spawned four waves. The first was third was after the fall of the “emirate” created as a result of the Soviet invasion of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan (2001), i.e. of Afghanistan (1979) and assumed the loss of a “safe haven” for extremists. the creation of an international group The fourth was caused by the U.S. of Muslim fighters that would liberate invasion of Iraq (2003) and the takeover Muslim territories from occupation. This of power by Shiites in that country goal was to be carried out by the Afghan and the destabilization of Syria (2011). Services Bureau (Maktab al-Khidamat), which was continued by Al-Qaeda. The There are five errors in this perception second came after the fall of the Islamist of jihadism however. The first problem revolts in Algeria and Egypt (circa 1997), is the belief in the actual existence and its purpose was to expel the United of these waves.

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Jihadism is a term coined on the basis of the Indo-Pakistani con ict, and popularized aer the clash between the Western and Muslim worlds. However, the concept of jihad – as a spiritual and physical battle – goes back to the very beginning of Islam.

Given the natural tendency of empires the first moment of an armed clash to break apart, battles for supremacy with Muslims. Islam, like every religion, between groups and state entities, as proclaims peace; but it does not exclude well as rebellions, that today we would the possibility of fighting, if only in the call terroristic or jihadist, have plagued name of peace and the interests of the the Muslim world and surrounding community. As long as the goals of jihadists regions practically from the moment are not reached, their struggle is endless. Islam emerged. Looking at jihadism as Jihadists assume that their physical a phenomenon of the past two-hundred and spiritual struggle is as permanent years at most, is a result of the perspective as the revolution that Trotsky envisioned. of colonial nations (primarily France and Great Britain) and the United States. The second mistake is assuming that It also connects with the Indian jihadism is an intermittent phenomenon perspective, a product of the territorial that moves by stages. As a strategic goal, conflict with Pakistan. A common feature jihadists want to restore the unity of lawful of these views is jihadism’s opposition power over the Muslim community. to the order imposed in the region either This perspective is far-reaching, probably peacefully or through force. European exceeding the life spans of many countries could recognize however, if they generations and therefore requiring were to be convinced that it is appropriate, steady action. In addition, it is an unclear that they are dealing with jihadism from vision that is simplified in many ways, and therefore utopian to a large extent. Jihadism is thus a permanent and Jihadists assume that centuries-old phenomenon, benefiting from the interests and conflicts of regional their physical and countries and the foreign powers spiritual struggle is present in the Middle East. The third mistake in the perception of as permanent as the jihadism is limiting it to Sunni and non- revolution that Trotsky -national groups. Both Sunnis and Shiites can be jihadists, and the pan-Islamic envisioned. ideologies of jihadist organizations are

68 The Warsaw Institute Review The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Future of Jihadism often a cover for the national interests is undermined by the so-called Arab of individual countries in the region. Spring, which with the appropriate An example is the anti-Israeli Hamas, demographic and macro-political which (although Sunni) is sponsored not conditions could transform into only by Sunni states, but also by the Shiite a Muslim Spring. Islamic Republic of Iran. In addition, the Sunni Al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood are carrying out transnational It is enough to see that activities, however in obtaining resources, including recruits and financing, they the “jihad of liberation” primarily make use of local, national conflicts. The Shiite Hezbollah works no is but another form differently. In this way, the local branches of the parent organizations are transformed of the more culturally into autonomous, local (tribal) national familiar “liberation movements, such as ISIS or Hamas. In the same way, the Islamic Revolutionary theology”. Guard Corps of Iran created, among others, Hezbollah in Lebanon in the 1980s. The fifth, and the most critical error, is the perception of jihadism as On the other hand, organizations at the exclusively correlated with the local or national level are often transformed intervention of Western states into North into supranational ones, for example: Africa and the Middle East. Defects inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood, the in the economic and social structures Afghan Services Bureau transformed into at the foundation of authoritarian rule in Al-Qaeda; Al-Qaeda in Iraq into ISIS; the the region are in themselves a sufficient Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood became generator of frustration and polarization, a supranational organization in the 20th which in turn finds an outlet in jihadism. century and currently seem to have open support from Turkey; Lebanese Hezbollah Jihadism is therefore a methodically found imitators (also supported by Iran) mixed (armed and peaceful) anarcho- in Iraq, of whom there will probably be -revolutionary and communizing no shortage of in Syria after the defeat movement (assuming the achievement of ISIS. At present, there is speculation of complete solidarity of the Ummah, about the possible (if only temporary) i.e. the community of the faithful, combining of forces of the so-called Islamic encompassing the peoples of the book, State and Al-Qaeda, as well as Hamas including Christians). It may pose and Hezbollah. Although both fronts, as a threat to any state and society that far as they crystallize, seem to have many it considers to be apostates. It is enough discrepancies between them due to the to see that the “jihad of liberation” fact that they are anchored in the local is but another form of the more culturally structures of various countries of the familiar “liberation theology”. region, their strategic, long-term goals are basically identical. The Threat of Jihadism in Saudi Arabia The fourth, perhaps the most important If we look at the present situation of the mistake, is to perceive all currents Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we can see of jihadism as being divided, and unable that King Salman and Crown Prince to merge into one stream. This hypothesis Mohammad bin Salman are clearly

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a generational change at the highest level of power was anticipated in the 1990s, so it should not be too difficult for the Saudis. Even appropriate institutional arrangements were made (the Allegiance Council composed of electors to choose successors to the throne). Therefore, it is difficult to avoid the impression that, for example, the November arrests of many prominent family members and other former confidants on charges of corruption was more of a show of force than a real consolidation of power in the hands of the young prince. However, if Mohammad actually nominates a prince and viceroy who are not accepted by his opponents, he will have cause for concern. Opponents can not only shorten Mohammad’s reign without having to deprive him of the throne, but can also force him to make concessions by taking advantage of societal dissatisfaction.

The second reason for concern is precisely this social dissatisfaction, which is a very real threat to Saudi Arabia. To understand the scale of the threat, some wider socio- -economic context is necessary. It is only after understanding this that one can see © Michael Reynolds (PAP/EPA) how exposed the Kingdom is to social Washington D.C., United States, March 14, 2017. Prince Mohammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, tensions and how they are forced to forcibly in the State Dining Room of the White House. suppress them. This context will also explain the modest and gradual reforms anxious about jihadist activity. There are over the course of many years. In addition, several reasons for such concerns. it is worth mentioning that each of these changes was introduced in order that the The first are the circumstances in which Kingdom’s authoritarian royal power could Mohammad bin Salman came to power. survive as long as possible. The population Thus far, succession took place between of Saudi Arabia has doubled in the last the sons of Ibn Saud (Abdulaziz). twenty-seven years. Currently, sixty percent However this time it came with of Saudis are under thirty years old. It is a generational change – Mohammad almost exactly the same amount as the is Ibn Saud’s grandson and exceptionally entire non-Saudi segment of the Kingdom’s young at thirty-two. Claimants to the inhabitants. Officially, unemployment in throne are numerous, as Ibn Saud fathered Saudi Arabia is less than thirteen percent, many children in his life. This means that but it is speculated that unofficially it is Mohammad could expect resistance to the double that. Population growth intersected legitimacy of his future power. However, with the fall in oil prices and led to the need

70 The Warsaw Institute Review The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Future of Jihadism to cut subsidies, which are the main benefit for public sector employees. Positions in the state sector are occupied primarily The reforms foreseen by Saudis since they face employment difficulties in the expatriate-dominated in the V30 are also private sector. supposed to build a base Due to the increasing number of graduates of social support, but at of domestic and foreign universities, steps were taken to “Saudize”, that is, to expel this moment they do not expatriates for the benefit of native citizens. Therefore, by the end of 2020, assume societal control all expatriates working in the public sector (about 70,000 people) are to be laid off. over the elites. The “Saudization” process touches on two sensitive issues: the threats of corruption base to ensure economic growth while and nepotism. Although “Saudization” reducing dependence on oil production. will not negate these threats, it postpones This objective is part of the package of the need to reduce benefits to the public twelve reform programs embodied in the sector. Forcing excessive cuts in public Saudi Vision 2030 (V30) plan. According benefits is risky and the steps already to V30, reforms are to be introduced taken have been insufficient. Therefore, the gradually over five-year periods. Due to next pressures that Saudi society will face historical analogies, the V30 is allusively are fiscal solutions. Last year a selective compared to the reforms of Deng tax on goods and a residence tax for Xiaoping in China and in the Soviet expatriates was introduced, and from 2018, Union, and those of the White a five percent VAT will be introduced. Revolution of the last Shah of Iran. Mohammad bin Salman’s anti-corruption A general similarity between the V30 efforts were welcomed by both the public and other reform strategies exists, because and the clerics because they represented all are a contract between the elites and a solidarity gesture of the justice of elites society. Although speculation has been with society. However, a high percentage primarily about economic reforms, the of young people in the population of social dimension is equally important. Saudi Arabia means the state has great The reforms foreseen in the V30 are difficulty meeting the requirements and also supposed to build a base of social needs of its citizens. This has been the support, but at this moment they do not condition for many years. This means assume societal control over the elites. that despite reforms, social polarization In this regard, the main intermediaries exists and will continue to exist until the (apart from clan relations) are still the age pyramid of the population stabilizes. clerics, who in exchange for gestures by This is what caused – and will cause – such Mohammad bin Salman to curb elite high attraction to extremist groups in corruption and increase social justice, the Kingdom. Therefore, it should not be support the liberalization of social mores, assumed that there will be fewer terrorist though they are reluctant to do so. It is incidents there in the future. It is highly worth mentioning here that the clerics likely that there will be more. are not against social freedoms simply for religious reasons but as a matter of image. The third reason is that the introduced Only the elite can afford (financially) reforms aim to build an industrial greater social freedoms. That is why

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Mohammad bin Salman’s actions remain – which does what the authorities in Riyadh on a national scale – only gestures that do cannot do – it spreads itself in various not directly translate into a decrease forms. More than once in the history in corruption overall in the Kingdom. of the Kingdom have opponents of various reforms revolted (e.g. student More importantly, the degree of success protests in 1956, the uprising in Buraidah of the reforms and, above all, the scale in 1994). In addition, despite the many of providing jobs, a dignified life and tensions with the religious establishment, opportunities for leisure time, will the Sauds are responsible not only for determine real public support. The internal social mood, but externally in experience of Chinese, Soviet and the other Muslim countries, especially Sunni Shah’s reforms, indicate that industrial ones. The reason for this is obvious – they development and modernization does are the historical center of the Islamic not go according to plan while there world. They cannot tolerate any internal are difficulties in meeting high social or external enemy who would accuse expectations. Therefore, building an them of submitting to foreign powers industrial base unrelated to energy will or apostasy. The first split of the Saud be a big challenge, also due to the threat dynasty with a group of militant puritan of corruption and the incompetence of Wahhabis, called the Brothers, appeared personnel, who have already wasted some in the 1920s. At that time, the goals and of the funds they have received. In all cases political interests of King Ibn Saud were of such wide reforms, the elite’s adaptability at odds with those of the Brothers who was crucial (the Saud dynasty can be wanted the territorial expansion of the considered a party, given the size and Kingdom. Making themselves known number of familial relationships) and the through arbitrary assaults on neighboring degree of their internal solidarity. For this countries, they began to threaten the Saud reason, although in recent years in Saudi dynasty. In the face of such danger, the Arabia there was no shortage of gestures King made a decision to obtain a legal to liberalize public life, the Sauds cannot statement (fatwa) from the clerics to settle abandon the strong support of the clerics. the dispute. Having received a positive opinion of the King’s judgment, Ibn Saud decided to purge the ranks of his troops of Brothers. However, the Brothers made The intervention of the themselves known again fifty years later, when in 1979 they occupied the Grand U.S.-led coalition in Mosque in Mecca. The occupation lasted Afghanistan and Iraq two weeks and was a response to the apostasy of the Saudi authorities and their resulted in a dramatic submission to foreign forces. These are the same accusations as from the time of increase in the number the first split in Islam. Similar accusations could arise again if the foreign policy of of terrorist attacks the Kingdom will be too submissive to in Saudi Arabia. external pressures, and the social contract will be considered unfair. The fourth reason is the heritage of Sunni puritanism engrained into the Saudi After 1979, the number of attacks did not nation, known as Wahhabism. Saudi increase – the Kingdom responded with, Arabia was created thanks to Wahhabism, among other things, restrictive social

72 The Warsaw Institute Review The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Future of Jihadism norms with the support of the clerics. Jihadist Evolution, Saudi However, in the 1990s, attacks were Adaptation directed against American, British and The Saudi Muslim Brotherhood are still French troops present in Saudi Arabia. in Saudi Arabia despite the repercussions Jihadist organizations have recognized that fell on them for their actions that the power of apostates in Muslim against the monarchy in the 1990s and countries can only be overthrown if during the Arab Spring. They remain an their ties with Western countries, and important political asset in the Kingdom, especially to the U.S., are severed – the and are also an inalienable foundation tragic crowning of which were the attacks of the Saudi education system to this on September 11, 2001. The intervention day. Although extremist groups and of the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan individuals (including Al-Qaeda and and Iraq resulted in a dramatic increase Osama bin Laden) often broke away in the number of terrorist attacks in from this organization, Riyadh, along Saudi Arabia. The years 2004–2005 were with their loyal clerics, tries to co-opt particularly intense, when Abdullah, who the Brotherhood members. Considering had in fact served as the de facto king the education privatization plan in the since 1995 (when King Fahd became V30 plan, it can be assumed that King unable to rule for health reasons), Salman does not intend to abandon the formally took power. Brotherhood if they are loyal in return for the benefit of relative financial Although subsequent years were calmer, independence. This raises doubts, the emergence of the Islamic State in Iraq however, whether such activities will and Syria and the intensification of the guarantee the pacifism of the Brothers. conflict on the Sunni-Shiite axis caused It seems more likely that there will be an a significant number of attacks in the attempt to take control of the Brotherhood entire Kingdom. The main target of these by the elite, who are the potential donors attacks, however, were areas inhabited on behalf of private education by Shiites or nearby communities in the Kingdom. (e.g. provinces bordering Yemen). The distinction between perpetrators The problem remains, however, that the of attacks on specific organizations is reforms proposed in the V30 do not take important – the tension between Sunni political transformations into account. and Shiite citizens is growing – but the This means that in the case of unfavorable fact of increasing jihadist activity in Saudi political and social circumstances the Arabia is more important. This activity Brotherhood and jihadist groups may is also connected with Saudi Arabia take advantage of the internal weakness accusing Qatar of supporting the Muslim of Saudi Arabia and demand political Brotherhood, who have been recognized concessions. The opposition could then by the authorities in Riyadh as a terrorist find support among some of the princes organization. They shared a fate similar to arrested in November this year, part that of other “brotherhoods” in the history of whom declared the legitimacy of this nation. The Kingdom’s conflict of democratizing the Kingdom’s form with Qatar turned out to be in part the of government. Therefore, if the reforms implementation of the goals of the attacks provided in the V30 are not a success, of the 1990s, which led to the departure of proposals for real changes can be U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia. There is an expected. Although this forecast may seem air base located in Qatar. The U.S. could unrealistic at the moment, it does not have abandon it if pressure increases. to be a distant one – conditions conducive

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to such a course of events may appear at a a degeneration, whether the true right rapid pace. However, while the state of the vision of a larger Muslim state entity not Saudi economy is not threatened by crisis buried by the Sunni-Shiite schism? The or implosion, and the authorities can offer majority of the analytical works I have their elites participation in privatization, read for years assume the continuation a revolution will be forestalled. Possible of the Sunni-Shiite conflict as a certainty, attacks in the Kingdom will lead but would an inter-factional alliance, to reduced social expectations, and despite divisions, be unrealistic? There an increased need to ensure security in are many processes that take place an authoritarian manner, at the expense at such different speeds that it is of claims for new civil liberties and rights. impossible to see the moment of their coupling, especially during the lifespan In addition, the co-opting and use of of the individual. Therefore, the threat the Brotherhood and the traditional of jihadism in Saudi Arabia and and loyal clerics in a joint way can serve the region – both Sunni and Shiite the Saudis to compete for leadership in or combined – should be treated the region. In this respect, they have a as continuous and probable. common opponent: Shiite Iran and local organizations supported by it in the Is Jihadist the Right Word? region. One of the Kingdom’s internal Finally, we should consider whether problems with external implications is it is more legitimate to interchangeably that the oil-rich provinces are inhabited by call terrorists in Europe: Islamists, Shiites, demanding equal treatment. Due terrorists, radicals, fundamentalists, to geographical location, these provinces jihadists or perhaps more precisely, anarcho-Muslims? From the perspective of jihadists, anarchy is only a transitional From the perspective stage leading to a new order. The secular states of Europe, on the other hand, of jihadists, anarchy is are attractive to many moderate and peaceful, though often conservative only a transitional stage Muslims, who respect the secular supreme authority that ensures them leading to a new order. security, prosperity and freedom of democratic participation. Therefore, the cannot be effectively penetrated by pro- jihadists are also nothing but anarchists -Iranian elements. However, the Sunni- to them. Using a distinction between -Shiite discord has one common interest: Muslims and anarcho-Muslims would defeating Israel. Although the vast allow a more effective fight against the majority of Muslims rejected the Islamic generalizing perception of the Muslim State because of its deeds, it effectively community. In addition, ideologically, opened the way to the more moderating it would create a breakthrough for the influence of Wahhabism and Saudi Arabia, conceptualization, crystallization and such as in Iraq. The declared tightening promotion of European Islam, which of relations between Saudi Arabia and would be determined and motivated Israel against Iran may, however, reactively to coexist with the secular authorities lead to a resurgence of communizing and societies of Europe. pan-Islamism. A radicalized inhabitant of the region (especially in Syria and Iraq) Marcin Orłowski could ask, although the Islamic State was December 15, 2017

74 The Warsaw Institute Review The Polish Economy – Challenges and Outlook Cezary Kaźmierczak The economy is inseparable from politics. All market participants, both entrepreneurs and consumers, function within strictly defined legal conditions which are decided solely by politicians.

conomic life is also influenced to politics, through to those resulting by relations with other countries from government decisions of a relatively in the international arena – short-term nature, up to great movements the national representatives on the geopolitical stage. Understanding Emanaging the country retain the initiative the processes that have occurred over here as well. This very close relationship the last century in Poland is necessary between politics and the economy is to comprehend not only the current clearly visible in the example of Poland. economic situation of the country, At the moment it is a rich country, if we but also to anticipate its potential. use the entire globe as a reference point. It is enough, however, to narrow down Poland’s Level of Affluence the perspective to European countries Let us start with hard facts. According or simply “developed” ones to see that, to OECD (Organization for Economic on this scale, Poland is only moderately Co-operation and Development) data for well-off. This is the result of many 2016, Poland is the 15th largest economy factors – from those indirectly related (measured by GDP) in the world.

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Warsaw, Poland, April 27, 2015. Cezary Kaźmierczak, President of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers.

76 ©The Arek Warsaw Markowicz Institute (PAP) Review The Polish Economy – Challenges and Outlook

Warsaw, Poland, April 27, 2015. Cezary We are being outpaced not only by Kaźmierczak, President of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers. global powers such as the United States, Germany or the United Kingdom, but Understanding the also by important nations, though far from superpowers, such as Spain processes that have or Australia. Of course Poland has occurred over the last a higher nominal GDP than countries much richer than it, such as Norway, century in Poland is which is a natural result of a larger number of inhabitants. It gets much necessary to comprehend worse if we look at the approximate level of the nation’s wealth, i.e. GDP not only the current per capita. Here, Poland already occupies economic situation a middling position (about $24,900 at constant prices), and it is one that is of the country, but also more likely to drop than one that is on the verge of matching the best to anticipate its potential. with a little effort. Poorer countries include Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia and Turkey, however tiny Estonia or the of the nation in the form of language, neighboring Czech Republic, are richer. culture and tradition, survive. The One could conclude that there are no partitions happened a long time ago, but good reasons to be pleased. So where their economic and social effects are still did the idea that Poland has achieved visible today. Informally we divide the huge economic success since 1989 come country into Poland “A” and “B”, where from? And why is it that every year we the latter is much less developed. hear that Poland is once again among The genesis of this disparity can be found, the countries with the fastest economic among other places, in those partitions growth in the EU? In order to answer – the lands under the Prussian partition these questions it is necessary, following were characterized by much better the recommendation contained in the infrastructure and development than the first paragraph, to analyze the historical areas occupied by the other two empires. processes directly affecting the condition Even today, if we look at the railway of the Polish economy today. network map of Poland, it is clearly visible that it is most extensive It should be clearly stated that since 1989, in the former Prussian partition. Poland has enjoyed a second and also the longest period of full independence Economic Development in the since the 1790s. At the end of the 18th Interwar Period century, the weakness of the Polish state As already stated, Poland regained its and its inability to reform, resulting from independence in 1918. The state was taken the decadence of “noble democracy”, back from the occupiers (outside the combined with political intrigues lands of the Prussian partition) in a poor and hostile neighbors, allowed Russia, condition economically and in terms Prussia and Austria to divide Polish of infrastructure. This was made worse territory between them. In 1795, Poland by the effect of World War I, during which – disappeared from the world map and only due to wide scale looting – Poland lost huge thanks to the attitude and defensiveness amounts of public and private property. The of the Polish spirit, did the substance interwar period (the two decades following

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© Tomasz Gzell (PAP) Warsaw, Poland, September 10, 2009. The “Nowy Świat” Banking and Financial Centre, the former seat of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The building was built in 1948–1952 as the seat of the Central Committee of the Polish United Workers Party (Communist party) at the intersection of Aleje Jerozolimskie and Nowy Świat streets.

the regaining of independence until the outbreak of World War II) It should be clearly was in economic terms devoted primarily stated that since 1989, to the reconstruction of industry and the implementation of economic programs Poland has enjoyed on a huge scale. For example building the port in Gdynia and making it the largest a second and also the on the Baltic Sea, and construction of the Central Industrial Region inhabited by six longest period of full million people, whose task was to increase independence since the industrial potential of Poland. Thus in 1938, Poland was a wealthier country the 1790s. (GDP per capita) than countries such as Portugal, Spain and Greece.

78 The Warsaw Institute Review The Polish Economy – Challenges and Outlook

© Mariusz Szyperko (PAP) Warsaw, Poland, July 1981. The seat of the Central Committee of the PZPR (Polish United Workers' Party) on the corner of Aleje Jerozolimskie and Nowy Świat streets, decorated before the 9th Extraordinary Congress of the PZPR.

Consequences of World War II Destruction and a Centrally In Poland an Planned Economy The development of the Second Polish unprecedented Republic was effectively halted at the undertaking was carried outbreak of World War II, during which Poland suffered huge losses, out, involving both human and economic. According to estimates by the Office of War a 180-degree turnabout Compensation (formed at the end of the in the economic system war by the communist authorities), the damages resulting from the German within the framework of occupation amounted to about $650 billion (roughly twice the annual GDP parliamentary democracy.

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of Norway). After the war, Poland rate and caused intensive economic found itself in the Soviet Union’s development, but it was not without sphere of influence. It was necessary social costs. to rebuild infrastructure, factories and practically entire cities (as in the case After Regaining Independence of Warsaw). Additionally, the socialist From 1990 to 2015, Polish GDP per system introduced a centrally planned capita increased more than sevenfold, economy, nationalized industry, and which was definitely the best result in Europe. At the same time, during the reforms as well as in the years following The foundation of the them, structural problems related to the transformation of the economy domestic economy appeared. One of them was high unemployment – ranging from more is the dynamically than ten percent in the first half of the nineties to nearly twenty percent developing sector in the early twenty-first century. of micro, small At the moment, Poland is characterized by a free market economy, record and medium-sized low unemployment (6.9 percent in September 2017), a stable GDP growth enterprises, which rate (estimated at 3.7 percent in 2017) and good prospects for the near produce over sixty future. The foundation of the domestic economy is the dynamically developing percent of Poland’s sector of micro, small and medium- -sized enterprises, which produce GDP. over sixty percent of Poland’s GDP. fought against private enterprise. According to Eurostat, Polish GDP is It was only on June 4, 1989, that the mainly generated by trade, transport, era of real socialism ended with the industrial and construction enterprises. defeat of the communists in the Polish The share of agriculture (3.4 percent) parliamentary elections. Unfortunately, is relatively low, as well as businesses it left its mark on the Polish economy in the information and communication for years to come. The democratic sectors (3.5 percent). Our entrepreneurs opposition took power over a country are happy to trade with foreign where hyperinflation was raging, partners (we can boast of a surplus shortages plagued the economy, and in the balance of international trade), state-owned industrial plants were and Polish products are well-regarded becoming increasingly inefficient. worldwide. Therefore it seems that Both a political transformation we have all the advantages needed to and economic transformation were catch up with the wealthiest countries necessary. In Poland an unprecedented in Europe over the next few decades. undertaking was carried out, involving And this is the basic ambition of Poles, a 180-degree turnabout in the economic especially after joining the European system within the framework of Union, when a whole generation of parliamentary democracy. Many free- young people finally began to travel -market reforms stabilized the exchange to the West unhindered and could

80 The Warsaw Institute Review The Polish Economy – Challenges and Outlook compare their quality of life to that know-how or inventions – there was no of their peers from other countries. opportunity to create and accumulate these resources in Poland. Structural Problems of the Polish Economy Unfortunately, the Polish economy The only way we can is still struggling with a few basic structural problems, which in the compete is with laws next few years may have key (negative) significance for its development. First and institutions, so of all, we are in a terrible demographic situation. This is a common problem that people will want for the European Union countries, but in Poland it can be felt front and center. to settle in Poland Not only because we have one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, but and that companies also because we do not have capital saved up that could alleviate the costs will see the benefits of higher budgetary burdens imposed by the retirement system. of transferring their

Secondly, the Polish economy is too activities to Poland. heavily regulated. We create too many laws that are completely unnecessary The only way we can compete is with for the healthy functioning of the laws and institutions, so that people market, and only restrict the activity will want to settle in Poland and that of entrepreneurs who would like to companies will see the benefits of develop new activities, but must instead transferring their activities to Poland. spend long hours reading updated It will only be possible to catch up with regulations. the West in terms of affluence if these three problems are solved, although in Thirdly, there is a serious risk of reality the first two are consumed by falling into the trap of middling the third. If Poland skillfully identifies development, due to the fact that in potential competitive advantages competition with other countries we relative to other countries, and then do not maximize the only advantages proceeds to effectively make the most that we have at our disposal; given of them, there is a good chance that that competition in globalization takes in the coming decades it will join place not only for commerce, but also the richest countries in the European for entire companies, and thus the Union. And considering that twenty- budget revenues from taxes paid by -eight years ago we were a nation on them. During the boom caused by the the verge of economic collapse, terribly implementation of basic free market indebted abroad, with declining principles in the West, Poland did industry and an eternal shortage not exist as a political entity, or it had of consumer goods – this would be to build its own state, or was destroyed an exceptional achievement! during the war, or was in the Soviet zone of influence. In this situation, Cezary Kaźmierczak we had no way to compete with capital, December 15, 2018

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The Race that Started in Dreams Czesław Lang “We would like to present a proposal for you to write something for our journal The Warsaw Institute Review, in which you will explain the Tour de Pologne (Tour of Poland) phenomenon”, I was asked some time ago.

“An interesting challenge,” I thought. I am not exaggerating: the race is I glanced at the dictionary to remind broadcast in 130 countries and viewers see myself of the terminology. A phenomenon the beautiful parts of our country through is “a rare, remarkable person or thing.” their TV screens. Kraków, which Is the Tour de Pologne something like is already very popular, strengthens this? I do not want to judge the event its brand even more. Other regions can tell that I am responsible for organizing, but their story by showing their best side. I know that we have come a long way and This opportunity cannot be overestimated. we have in fact created something unique If someone wants to translate this into in Polish sport. I know that the Tour de monetary value, there is simply no Pologne is not just another sporting event, cheaper and more effective means of but something unique that connects promotion than through sport, especially people, attracts them to the race route or cycling. For example, let’s look at Rio de in front of televisions, and at the same Janeiro. Everyone associates this Brazilian time showcases Poland to the world. city with the carnival, the Christ the

82 The Warsaw Institute Review The Race that Started in Dreams

Warsaw, Poland, October 17, 2016. Former cyclist and Director of the Tour de Pologne (Tour of Poland) Czesław Lang at the premiere of his autobiography, Zawodowiec1/2018 (Professional83 ). © Radek Pietruszka (PAP) Sport

Redeemer statue, Copacabana, right? I already had other ideas, however. And yet, after the fantastically presented Of course, many cyclists try to organize Olympic cycling race in 2016, I received a their own teams. However, I thought that lot of calls from friends who were shocked I would take a different road. A quarter at how stunningly beautiful Rio is. I also of a century has just passed since the saw such reactions in online forums, first Tour de Pologne for which I was and through other channels. All of this responsible. Twenty-five years since, and because hundreds of millions of people yet I still remember everything exactly. sat down in front of television sets to Once, at the airport, I met the former watch the best in the world compete, then director of the Tour de France. in the process they saw something more Jean-Marie Leblanc embraced me like – a fantastically beautiful environment. a friend, though later he asked somewhat The Tour de Pologne is similar. teasingly: “What’s up, Cesare? I hear you Our race is more than just sport, are planning to do an event like ours in but I will write more on that later. Poland?” I said that it would not be the same, because we have our own beautiful history, which is worth showing to the I know that the Tour world at the occasion of a great sporting event. I also added that I wanted the Tour de Pologne is not just de Pologne to be just as well-organized as the world’s biggest races. He looked at another sporting event, me and patted me on the back, but I did but something unique not notice great faith in his eyes. Besides, there were similar reactions everywhere. that connects people, Anyway, it was similar a century ago. attracts them to the When we organized the Tour de Pologne race route or in front in 2016, the slogan of the event was “On the Trail of History”. I dug into the historical of televisions, and at record. The Battle of Warsaw happened in the same time showcases 1920, but hardly anyone knows that those people who fought then at Radzymin, real Poland to the world. patriots, later organized a cycling race. They turned to the French for help. Did I expect such success? I do not know, The Tour de France already existed, so but I definitely dreamed about creating the French had experience. However, they something great. When, as the first cyclist wrote back to the Poles that they would from our part of Europe, I made it to be better off giving up the idea, because a professional peloton,1 I was as happy it was too difficult and they would certainly as a child, because I wanted to see a not be able to handle it. I can imagine different, more colorful and better world. what they felt... I went to Italy and competed with the best there. I observed the world’s largest When I took the wheel of the Tour de events up close. Pologne, it was the beginning of the 1990s, Poland had just broken free from Ultimately, I stopped racing, although communism, people were learning to live I could have probably extended my career. in a new reality and had a lot of problems on their minds. Above all, they wanted 1 The main body of riders in a cycling race. to secure the well-being of their families.

84 The Warsaw Institute Review The Race that Started in Dreams © Grzegorz Momot (PAP) Rzepiska, Poland, August 4, 2017. From left: Caleb Ewan from the Ors group, Bert De Becker from the Sun group, Danny van Popper from the Sky group, Martijn Keizer from the and Jan Bert Lindeman from the TLJ group, Kamil Gradek, Saramotins Aleksejs from the Bora-Hansgrohe group, on the seventh stage (132 kilometers) of the 74th Tour de Pologne in Bukowina Tatrzańska.

Our race is often compared with the Tour From the beginning, de France. It is a fact that you can always find some common elements. Besides, I followed certain we have nothing to be ashamed of, although at the same time it is worth rules. First of all, remembering that it is hard to compare our budget with what they are capable of. professionalism. We’re not complaining about anything, we’re doing fine, but sometimes I laugh, When I met potential partners and said we entered the race in a Syrena (Polish what I wanted to do, most only smiled. car produced from 1957–1972) and we’re “Professional cycling? Mr. Lang, give me staying neck and neck with Formula 1 a break. Maybe in a few years,” they said. cars. We don’t lag behind in any way. But I did not want to give up. I found After each season, we are judged by partners, I invested my own savings, the bosses of world cycling and we get the I started the project. And we made it. same grades as the Tour de France or Giro From the beginning, I followed certain d’Italia, and all elements are taken into rules. First of all, professionalism. I know account – from accommodations, through that many will wince in a moment, but awards, to safety. We earn over 99 points a quarter of a century ago I knew that out of 100. a race is a product. It must have value, but also be beautifully packaged. The main Sometimes our inferiority complex annoys protagonists must feel well taken care me, that if something is Polish, of, the media must broadcast everything it is supposedly worse. This is not true, appropriately, and the fans need to know we can do great things, and at the same that they are participating in something time we have fantastic fans. special. Of course, there have been and I remember 2016. Then, the Tour de will be missteps, although the assumption Pologne was taking place in a difficult is always the same: everything must time. It overlapped with the Euro soccer be ready to the last detail. championship, which attracts huge

Zabrze, Poland, August 1, 2017. Cyclists on the fourth stage (238 kilometers) of the 74th Tour de Pologne, from Zawiercie to Zabrze.

interest, and many fans were already and event organizers, but cycling is waiting for the Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. different from a soccer or volleyball game. However, the love for cycling won. On the There, everything happens in one place. route of our national track, three million Here, it’s just the opposite. I remember fans watched the cyclists live. Millions 2016 well. The mountain stage of the race more followed the competition in front took place in exceptionally difficult weather of TVs. This is the biggest prize and the conditions. Rain was flooding the roads. biggest measure of the success of our event. In Zakopane we managed to make it, but Then, after that race, I thought it was the in Bukowina Tatrzańska I had to make realization of the goal that I set at the very the decision to cancel the stage. There was beginning when I had only my dreams and no way out, although hundreds of people a little savings. It was not about proving worked to make it possible to conquer the anything to anyone, but about dreaming mountain roads, and the fans were waiting. to create something like that, a brand, that is recognizable all over the world, and The most important thing, however, is guaranteed to be high quality. I remember safety. We’re constantly working on it. a study carried out by Pentagon Research We have changed the type of fences in 2013. It showed that the Tour de Pologne separating fans from cyclists at the end is the most recognizable annual sporting of stages, and we are introducing other event in Poland. Statistically, more than safeguards. I often think back to the four out of five respondents heard about Olympics in Rio. Annemiek van Vleuten the event organized by Lang Team. was coming down from the last hill, riding This is another measure of success. for the gold medal, and she fell. She hit her head against a curb. Many fans thought that In our country there is no bigger annual Dutch woman would not survive. My heart sporting event. Every day of the race, over also stopped when this accident was shown twelve-hundred people are working on on television. I knew that the cyclist could it and secure it. Hundreds of vehicles travel have killed herself and I was furious at the the route ahead of, alongside and behind organizers. I did not understand how they the cyclists. These people have to be ready could accept such amateurism in securing for anything. I respect all sports disciplines the route. During the Tour de Pologne,

86 The Warsaw Institute Review The Race that Started in Dreams after overcoming the “royal loop”, there is de Pologne. Every year, I closely observe an exceptionally sharp downhill ride from hundreds of kids who get shirts similar Gliczarów. The cyclists speed along at up to to those of the professional racers. 100 kilometers per hour and suddenly have In addition, they compete on the same to overcome a sharp bend. Safety must be route traveled by the “adult” peloton absolutely guaranteed in such places. We several hours later. I see the commitment, set out special nets there, similar to those in passion and joy on the faces of these alpine skiing competitions, and we also line children. This is the biggest prize. For years, the curbs with mattresses. If someone falls, this event was supported by my daughter they’ll be saved. Agata and she was also infected with passion and commitment. We are proud During an event as high-profile as the that everything has blossomed this way. Tour de Pologne, and in such a sport as cycling, you have to take care of everything. We’ve been learning this for years and we’re still learning because Sometimes our inferiority there are always new things and better complex annoys me, that solutions in every respect. At the same time, I feel that it is worth doing, because if something is Polish, the race is successful. I always knew that Poles love cycling. I remember it is supposedly worse. This empty streets in the times of Ryszard is not true, we can do great Szurkowski and other celebrities of the Polish peloton when everyone was inside things, and at the same watching the races. I remember the Peace Race; which fans were very fond of. time we have fantastic fans. I did not have the ambition to repeat that success, but I knew what I wanted The next event, which “sprung up” at the to create. I have already written of the Tour de Pologne, was the Amateur Tour fact that the race became a brand, which de Pologne. An unusual event, though... in turn is a showcase of Poland. not for everyone. To participate in it, it’s not enough to simply get up from behind The next goal was to create many other the TV and start. I mean, it’s possible, but events around the Tour de Pologne, it does not bode well for success. Amateur which would permanently enter the cyclists conquer the “royal loop” around landscape, and at the same time would Bukowina Tatrzańska, and this is a really have social and educational functions. big challenge. However, the event has We spent years creating the MTB Grand grown so much and is so popular that Prix series, in which Maja Włoszczowska sign-ups start in January, and there aren’t and Ania Szafraniec were “brought up”. enough places on the starting list for It was happening during a big boom in everyone. This is also a measure of success. mountain biking. We “packaged” this event in an extraordinary way. There was For a long time, I also wanted to help television, the biggest media and huge in education. This is how the idea of interest, and athletes were fighting for creating a series of cycling marathons the prize in the form of a new car. was born. A decade or two ago, the In some editions, a mass of kids took part. bicycle was usually thought of as For years we have been developing other just a means of transportation. Later, projects such as the Nutella Mini Tour everything changed and it became a tool

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None of this would have been possible without the right partners. It’s a huge job that needs to be done year-round. Cycling is a rewarding sport for advertisers, but you have to convince them to it. The family of Tour de Pologne partners is a really big one today and that is another reason to be proud. There are global brands with us, such as Carrefour or Hyundai, there are domestic giants like Lotto, Tauron or Lotos, there are many other companies and we strive to look after each of them as best we can.

There are also cities and local governments that understand better and better the opportunity that promotion through sport offers. We try to show the most beautiful places in our country in the best possible way. Shots from helicopters, motorcycles, continuous action, and beautiful spots

© Bartłomiej Zborowski (PAP) Zborowski © Bartłomiej in the background. This is how you “do” sports today and people appreciate it, because the Tour de Pologne reaches over one-hundred countries around the world, and in Poland it builds a sense of community and pride. To understand this, you have to take part in it in any role, preferably as a fan. Therefore, there Warsaw, Poland, January 26, 2014. Two-time Olympic and four-time UCI Road World is nothing left for me to do but to invite Championship medalist, Ryszard Szurkowski, took everyone to the 75th Tour de Pologne, first place in the "Golden" Top Ten All-Time Polish an exceptional race taking place in the Cyclists poll. The event took place during the 1st Cycling Champions Ball. year which marks the 100th anniversary of Poland regaining independence. We used for physical activity and a healthy will celebrate a threefold jubilee: the 75th lifestyle. Bicycle paths were created, edition, ninety years since the first edition and sometimes I found myself in places and finally, my humble anniversary of a where…bicycle traffic jams had formed. quarter-century of taking responsibility And, however annoying it might be, for our national cycling event. this sight made me realize how much everything is changing. Marathons have But this is not all, because I know that become a response to a social need. We together, with fantastic fans and, above gave the chance and opportunity for entire all, for them, we still want to develop the families to ride on various routes. There Tour de Pologne and everything that are distances for well-trained people, is happening around it. We are not going but also those on which you can ride to stop; our heads are still full of ideas. with your child. On the routes I meet both small children and seniors. What more Czesław Lang could you want? January 15, 2018

88 The Warsaw Institute Review American Relief and Poland’s Independence Nicholas Siekierski Later this year, Poland will celebrate its centenary of regaining independence on November 11, 1918. There will surely be many speeches and ceremonies, but what emphasis will be placed on the foreign country and the Pole who deserves much of the credit for this event?

am speaking of the United States, to an increased, international political then emerging as a superpower, and interest in the distant land. Not only was Ignacy Jan Paderewski the virtuoso the deplorable humanitarian situation pianist-statesman, whose efforts publicized, but so was the reality of Iensured American support for Poland’s Poland’s subjugation to three neighboring liberation from one-hundred and twenty- empires. The post-war operations of three years of enslavement. the American Relief Administration buttressed the proclamations made The attempts by Herbert Hoover, Edward by the American government House and President Woodrow Wilson in support of Polish independence to negotiate a relief program for Poland in the preceding years. modeled on the Commission for Relief in Belgium, though unrealized during The Americans did not take an interest the war, brought the plight of Poland in Poland simply out of a sense of to the world stage. This contributed justice and morality (though these were

1/2018 89 History © Rafał Guz (PAP) Warsaw, Poland, June 9, 2015. At a ceremony transferring the painting Paderewski and Wilson (1939) by Arthur Szyk and “Wilson’s notes”, illustrating the efforts of U.S. President Woodrow Wilson leading to Poland’s rebirth, to the Central Archives of Modern Records (AAN) in Warsaw.

important factors), but because they were Although some of the most influential men induced to do so by Poles in America, in America took a great interest in seeing most notably by Paderewski. It was largely Poland regain her freedom, their support Paderewski’s personal friendship with was not unconditional. While American Edward House, Wilson’s closest adviser, influence on Polish politics appears to that impressed upon the President the have been measured and intermittent importance of Poland’s independence as a (certainly when compared to Poland’s condition of peace after the war. troubled history with Germany, Russia

90 The Warsaw Institute Review American Relief and Poland’s Independence and Austria-Hungary) it was brought to bear on occasion. The most effective form of this leverage was the threat of With Poland partitioned withholding critical food aid to the newly between Germany, Russia reborn nation in the early months of 1919, unless the country’s civilian and military and Austria, political life leaders recognized the necessity of a strong civil government with Paderewski was necessarily carried as prime minister. out by Polonia émigrés, American Polonia and Polish the most influential Relief centers being in the The American government was preoccupied with a plethora of United States matters, even before entry into the war. The maintenance of its focus, even and Western Europe. inconsistently, on both the humanitarian and independence issues surrounding These political divisions were also Poland, was due largely to American present in the United States, though Polonia. groups associated with nationalists would dominate. Over the course of the war, the Major immigration into the United nationalists would side with the Entente States from Poland took place between powers, based on the belief that Polish the late 19th and early 20th centuries. independence could only be achieved Though exact numbers are impossible to when her mortal enemy, Germany, was determine, between two and three million defeated. The socialists on the other hand, Poles lived in America by 1914. The major sided with the Central Powers, specifically concentrations were in the large cities with Austria (Piłsudski’s base of operations such as New York, Pittsburgh and Detroit, was in the Austrian-controlled Galicia though the undisputed center of American region), believing the defeat of Russia, Polonia was Chicago. Poland’s other mortal enemy, to be the only way that a Polish state could With Poland partitioned between re-emerge. As the chief financial support Germany, Russia and Austria, political base for Polish political activity in Europe life was necessarily carried out by Polonia during World War I, American Polonia émigrés, the most influential centers would gain paramount importance being in the United States and Western among Polish leaders. Europe. The ideological dividing line in Polish émigré politics in the early The key figure in Polonia politics 20th century was between nationalism in America turned out to be neither and socialism. Though there were many Dmowski nor Piłsudski (neither spent very figures associated with both movements, much time in America, with the latter only the best known were Roman Dmowski visiting once while traveling to Japan), and Józef Piłsudski, the former being but of all people a world-renowned concert the leader of the National Democratic pianist, Ignacy Jan Paderewski. Having Party and the latter being the most toured Europe and America extensively well-recognized leader of the Polish for many years, and being fluent in English Socialist Party (though he left the party (among other languages), Paderewski was at the outbreak of World War I.) the most famous Pole in the world at the

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time. His activities during World War I politics. However, once it became clear as Poland’s most eloquent champion would that KON was not a broadly representative also make him the country’s best organization, and that the majority of their known political figure. leadership were partisans of Piłsudski’s Polish Legions, the coalition collapsed. Paderewski, along with Nobel-prize- The KON would play a minor, oppositional -winning writer Henryk Sienkiewicz, role in American Polonia politics. formed the General Committee of Relief for War Victims in Poland (Generalny The Polish Central Relief Committee and Komitet Pomocy Ofiarom Wojny w Vevey cooperated, thanks to Paderewski’s Polsce) in January 1915, which came to be arrival in America in April 1915 and his informally known as the Vevey Committee, tour of Polonia organizations around the named after the Swiss city in which they country. Disagreements over whether were headquartered. The committee was the relief organizations should engage in the epicenter of the small, but highly political actions or remain apolitical led influential group of Polish émigrés that to strong antagonisms between the Vevey would help to focus the efforts of Polonia Committee and the KON. The latter’s organizations in the United States. support of the Central Powers and the association of Vevey with the Entente, and their respective opinions as to which side would better realize Polish independence, Having toured Europe was the basis of this friction. and America extensively In total, the Vevey committee received for many years, and approximately $4 million in donations during the course of the war, $2.5 million being fluent in English of which came from the United States. This (among other languages), was quite a sum, accounting for the fact that a majority of donations, at least from Paderewski was the most the U.S., were from working class Poles famous Pole in the world who earned less than $400 per year. at the time. While American Polonia was a force to be reckoned with, ultimately its Also established in the U.S. in October 1914 greatest influence was realized by one in Chicago, was the Polish Central Relief man. Paderewski enjoyed the respect, Committee (Polski Centralny Komitet financial support and access to media Ratunkowy, PCKR), a federation of major platforms (namely newspapers and public Polish organizations including: the Polish appearances) afforded by Polonia, which Roman-Catholic Union, Polish National allowed him to carry on practically Alliance, Polish Falcons’ Alliance, Alliance full-time political work from 1915 of Polish Women, National Council and onward. Though sometimes vain, naive others. This organization was influenced by and prone to nervous breakdowns, the National Democrats and Dmowski. Paderewski was able to create a personal connection with the most influential The National Defense Committee (Komitet men in America at the time. His efforts Obrony Narodowej, KON) was formed highlighted the issues of Polish relief in 1912 in Pittsburgh and enjoyed a and independence in a way that no other brief period of hegemony over Polonia individual or group could come close to.

92 The Warsaw Institute Review American Relief and Poland’s Independence

Lawrence Alma-Tadema, Portrait of Ignacy Jan Paderewski (1890). From the © Wikimedia Commons exhibition "Paderewski" (February 17–May 20, 2018) at the National Museum in Warsaw.

Paderewski, Colonel House whom it would be a delight to work. He and Woodrow Wilson inlisted [sic] my sympathies for Poland.”2 Paderewski’s activities on Poland’s House later reflected on the importance behalf would eventually lead him to of the Paderewski friendship to his meet President Wilson’s closest advisor, involvement in the Polish cause: Edward Mandell House on November 12, 1915. The purpose of the meeting “It was solely through Paderewski was Paderewski’s desire to impress upon that I became so deeply interested House the need for Polish relief and to in the cause of Poland, and repeatedly request assistance in securing aid from pressed upon the President the administration.1 Colonel House Paderewski’s views, which I had (an honorific title, as he had no military made my own. That was the only background) was immediately taken in real influence regarding Poland that by Paderewski’s dynamism, energy and I counted, and I am sure if Woodrow patriotic zeal. “We were friends at our first Wilson were alive he would tell you meeting. I knew at once that I was in the that he was actuated by the same presence of a great man, and one with impulse that governed me.”3

2 M.B.B. Biskupski, The United States and the Rebirth 1 Edward Mandell House Papers, Series II, Diaries, of Poland: 1914–1918, (St. Louis: Republic of Letters, Volume 3, Yale University Library Digital Collec- 2012), 134. tions, http://digital.library.yale.edu/cdm/ref/collec- 3 House to Orłowski, January 15, 1931, House tion/1004_6/id/3841. Papers, Box 84, f. 2916.

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Years later, the value that Paderewski tied One of the early effects of Paderewski’s to the friendship with House, whom he and Polonia’s efforts was the declaration referred to as “Poland’s providential man”,4 by Wilson of January 1, 1916 as “Polish took tangible shape in the form of a statue Relief Day”, following a resolution passed of House that he funded in 1932 in Warsaw’s in Congress, with the Red Cross serving Skaryszewski Park. It is one of the few as the administrator of money collected. statues of Americans in Poland (other Though the gesture was received with than the busts of Ronald Reagan and George great excitement among Poles, only Washington in Warsaw, and Woodrow $64,000 was raised in all of 1916 through Wilson in Poznań). While President this charitable endeavor. A combination Wilson gets credit for facilitating Poland’s of factors was at work here, though the independence, it is clear that House’s dominant one was likely the far greater interest in the matter, further inspired familiarity of Americans with fundraising by Paderewski, led him to emphasize its appeals for the Commission for Relief importance upon the President: in Belgium, chaired by Herbert Hoover, which was collecting donations in the “The close relationship growing millions of dollars each year.6 between House and Paderewski had the effect of gradually aligning the United The most practical results of the States government with the faction Paderewski-House relationship during the in international politics represented war was the influence on Wilson that led by the maestro. Although other factors to several important references to Polish were involved, the personal element independence in his major speeches: represented by the Paderewski-House relationship should not be discounted, “Sympathy for the war suffering especially in the earliest American of the Poles merged with sympathy involvement in Polish affairs.”5 for their demand for the unity and independence of their nation. In this way the restoration of Poland became Years later, the value that a war issue for a large public long before it was accepted by the foreign Paderewski tied to the offices of Europe...popular support of Polish aspirations gained headway friendship with House, more rapidly in America than whom he referred to as elsewhere, and this championship... was to be given new force in President “Poland’s providential Wilson’s speech on January 22, 1917.”7 man” , took tangible shape This timeframe, several months before in the form of a statue America’s entry into the war, was part of a final effort to negotiate peace in of House that he funded Europe with the United States as the in 1932 in Warsaw’s mediator. Although more of an illustrative example than a powerful statement Skaryszewski Park. of intent, the Polish question was given

4 H. Paderewska, Memoirs, 1910–1920, (Stanford, 6 M.B.B. Biskupski, op.cit., 141. California: Hoover Institution Press, 2015), 88. 7 H.H. Fisher, America and the New Poland, (New 5 Ibid. 136. York: Macmillan, 1928), 90–91.

94 The Warsaw Institute Review American Relief and Poland’s Independence international exposure in a way that In Professor Marek Biskupski’s analysis, it had not received before: “Essentially, the very principle of Polish independence was reduced from the “I take it for granted, for instance level of basic war aims (signified by the if I may venture upon a single use of “must” in the case of Belgium) example, that statesmen everywhere to that of ethical endorsement.”10 Wilson’s are agreed that there should be statement may also reflect an academic a united, independent, and and theoretical view of international affairs autonomous Poland, and that rather than a practical one. The border henceforth inviolable security of life conflicts that engulfed Poland from the or worship, and of industrial and moment independence was declared were social development should be a natural consequence of reconstituting guaranteed to all peoples who have a new state surrounded and populated lived hitherto under the power by ethnic groups with conflicting claims. of Governments devoted to a faith Wilson’s abstract way of thinking did and purpose hostile to their own.”8 not account for this however:

Nearly one year later, after America had “He [Wilson] was convinced that already entered the war, Wilson gave his the moral good of reconstituting landmark “Fourteen Points” speech on Polish independence could be had January 8, 1918. The thirteenth point without major territorial revisions. addressed Poland and was a more definitive His conversion to the cause of statement of Wilson’s vision for a free Polish independence was essentially Poland: moralistic: part of a larger moral vision of world order. Within this new order “An independent Polish state should the demands of realpolitik discussed be erected which should include the by his own advisers, could be ignored territories inhabited by indisputably as no longer valid...In reality he was Polish populations, which should be merely the champion of the idea of assured a free and secure access to the Polish independence, not of a rational sea, and whose political and economic program to assure its maintenance.”11 independence and territorial integrity should be guaranteed by international Wilson was frustrated by Poland’s initiative covenant.”9 to establish its borders through military force, rather than wait for the wise men A closer analysis of the point reveals that it of the Paris Peace Conference to draw the was not as much of a ringing endorsement new boundaries on a map. Herbert Hoover of Polish independence as some had provides an insight into Wilson’s mindset hoped. The use of the word ‘should’ instead in his tellingly titled America’s First Crusade, of ‘must’ (the latter having been applied to “He, however, believed and continued to Belgian independence in an earlier point) believe, that he could bring a ‘new order’ indicated that a controversy existed on the to the Old World. The words ‘new order’, matter. As was explained to Paderewski ‘justice’, ‘right’, ‘reason’ were constantly upon by House later, it was not an ultimatum. his lips. He believed that he had the power to impose this new order upon Europe, that 8 M.B.B. Biskupski, op.cit., 239. it would remove the major cause of their 9 President Woodrow Wilson’s Fourteen Points, January 8, 1918, Yale Law School, The Avalon 10 Project, http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/ M.B.B. Biskupski, op.cit., 331–332. wilson14.asp. 11 Ibid. 406–407.

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incessant wars.”12 America’s involvement in Poland, it was decided to provide Poland in the peace process would be a great with aid. Ultimately the mission would experiment into how well its values could help establish more than four-thousand be transferred to Europe’s new nation “kitchens” run by tens of thousands states with their conflicting interests. of Polish volunteers, serving daily meals to over one million Polish children All the Western Allies declared support and nursing mothers by 1920. for Polish independence by Armistice Day, November 11, 1918. The United Herbert Hoover had been explicit in his States was the first world power to commit instructions to the mission: “Keep entirely to self-determination of nations out of politics. There are political missions in Eastern Europe, at least in principle. assigned to political work, and we should The establishment of the first new forward to them any matters of interest government in Poland by Piłsudski in their work, or to the advantage of would test the principle in practice. Poland in the general Allied cause, but your work is entirely that of relief.”13 Humanitarian Aid as Political However, in his memoirs written several Leverage years later, Hoover relates an incident that In December 1918, it finally became was quite the opposite of his instruction: possible to send direct aid from America. A “food mission” departed France under “Dr. Kellogg [chief of the mission] the instruction of Herbert Hoover, then advised me of the impossible political Food Administrator of the United States situation. He felt there was only one under President Wilson. By January 1919, hope and that was for Piłsudski, when the mission had arrived in Poland, who had the army’s backing, to be Hoover had become the director of the put on a pedestal. To close up the American Relief Administration (ARA), factions, he recommended that Ignacy tasked with providing famine relief to Paderewski, the favorite of all Poles, Europe. At the request of the Polish should be placed at the head of government and following the reports a stronger cabinet as Prime Minister of the food mission describing conditions and take control of the civil government. Not only did Paderewski hold the imagination of all the people, but he was Ultimately the mission a man of superlative integrity, deeply imbued with democratic ideals. would help establish Dr. Kellogg asked that he be authorized to inform Piłsudski that unless this was more than four-thousand done American co-operation and aid “kitchens” run by tens were futile. I did so and got the hint reinforced from President Wilson. of thousands of Polish As a result, Piłsudski was elevated to the position of “Chief of State,” volunteers, serving daily and Paderewski became Prime Minister meals to over one million on January 16.”14 Polish children and 13 W.R. Grove, War’s Aftermath, (New York: House nursing mothers by 1920. of Field, 1940), 36. 14 H. Hoover, The Memoirs of Herbert Hoover: Years 12 H. Hoover, America’s First Crusade, (New York: of Adventure, 1874–1920, (New York: Macmillan, Scribner’s, 1942), 3. 1951), 356–357.

96 The Warsaw Institute Review American Relief and Poland’s Independence

Fragment of the exhibition "From Poland with Love" (October 18, 2017-January 14, 2018) featuring Ignacy Jan Paderewski, created by the History Meeting House in Warsaw.

Fragment of the exhibition "From Poland with Love" (October 18, © Nicholas Siekierski 2017-January 14, 2018) Ignacy Jan Paderewski, created by the History Meeting House in Warsaw.

Nowhere in his writings does Vernon There is dispute among scholars as Kellogg confirm that this incident did to the veracity of Hoover’s statement, indeed take place. However, the incident in one case blaming him for a memory is corroborated by Wilson himself at one lapse.16 While it is not inconceivable that of the Paris Peace Conference meetings Hoover confused some of the facts, the on May 17, 1919: “President Wilson said more questionable part is that Kellogg that M. Paderewski had a letter in his himself would suggest such a serious possession from Mr. Hoover, informing intervention into Polish affairs. It is more him that aid would only be extended to likely that Hoover, if not Wilson or House, Poland so long as he was in charge.”15 The put forward this idea. The statement context of the discussion was the apparent by Wilson in Paris supports this. In the refusal of the Poles to cease operations on spring of 1919 Wilson also suggested the Ukrainian front, despite Paderewski’s withholding aid to Poland if certain issues protest and threat to resign. relating to the Jewish minority were not addressed. This further strengthens the 15 U.S. Department of State, Papers Relating to idea that the U.S. government was willing Foreign Relations of the United States: Paris Peace Conference 1919, Washington D.C. Government 16 T. Komarnicki, Rebirth of the Polish Republic: Printing Office, 1919, 5: 676, http://digital.library. A Study in the Diplomatic History of Europe, wisc.edu/1711.dl/FRUS.FRUS1919Parisv05. 1914–1920, (London: William Heineman, 1957) 261.

98 The Warsaw Institute Review American Relief and Poland’s Independence to use food aid as leverage on both the experience in civil government. political structure and policy of the Polish He was a dictatorial person with state, at least in the early months a strange mixture of social and of its existence. economic ideas. He set up a ministry mostly of military and doctrinaire The main reason for this influence was the character that was concerned with cautious attitude of the Americans towards such matters, rather than with the Piłsudski. Ironically, the Polish nationalist heartbreaking and immediate job faction, which had gained so much support of governmental housekeeping.”19 in America both from Polonia and the U.S. government, was subordinated to Piłsudski and his circle, which had been largely frozen out of funding and political The Chief of State influence among the Allies during the war. recognized Paderewski’s “Hoover’s admiration for the Polish popularity in both Poland artist may have been the main factor in his expressed preference for and abroad, and the role Paderewski as the head of government. he could play representing Also, Piłsudski’s past association with socialism, though it was the Poland at the Paris Peace Polish type of intensely patriotic Conference. and democratic socialism, may have bothered Hoover, who throughout his life was a consistent opponent Publicly Hoover showered Piłsudski with of any form of socialism.”17 praise during his 1919 visit to Poland, “Poland is fortunate in having in her The apparent intervention of Hoover leadership two out of the six or seven or Wilson on Paderewski’s behalf was great idealist statesmen of the world, an attempt to tip the scales in favor of Mr. Piłsudski and Mr. Paderewski.”20 an individual that they felt valued However, this type of rhetoric was more democratic principles, was an idealist a matter of statesmanship and wishful like they were, and most importantly, thinking, while his memoirs more closely was someone they knew and could work present his true beliefs. Despite the obvious with. Paderewski returned to Europe on preference of Allied leaders, it’s debatable the SS Megantic, still a British troopship whether their interventions played a decisive at the time, and stopped in London for role in the composer’s appointment as prime consultations with the British Foreign minister of Poland by Piłsudski. The Chief Office prior to his return to Poland,18 which of State recognized Paderewski’s popularity shows the measure of importance that he in both Poland and abroad, and the role was treated with by the Allies. Piłsudski he could play representing Poland at the on the other hand was seen differently: Paris Peace Conference. It is nonetheless an episode that highlights the importance “The General was a revolutionary America placed on Poland, especially as the soldier. He was wholly without Bolshevik Revolution threatened

17 J. Lerski, Herbert Hoover and Poland: A Documentary History of a Friendship, 19 H. Hoover, Memoirs, 355–356. (Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, 1977), 8. 20 J. Lerski, “Hoover Address at Lwów city hall, 18 H. Paderewska, op.cit.,121. August 15, 1919”, 82.

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of entry onto the political and cultural battlefield of Europe. The entire post-war The 116,000 American relief project, which extended well beyond Poland, coupled with the Paris Peace lives claimed in “the war Conference and League of Nations, was meant to be the framework that would to end war” was the price realize a lasting peace. While it is easy to of entry onto the political dismiss it as a hopelessly naive enterprise that was doomed to failure from the start, and cultural battlefield understanding the motivation behind it of Europe. provides an insight into the pioneering mindset of American leaders at the time. to spill over the borders of Russia, as it did Their horror at Europe’s self-destruction in 1920. The tremendous resources poured that left nearly twenty million dead, into Poland by the U.S. served as a kind coupled with a uniquely American of insurance policy meant to increase approach to solving problems, motivated the physical wellbeing of its citizens and their desire to forge a new paradigm to jumpstart the economy of the newly for Western civilization. reborn nation. This underappreciated aspect of Poland’s Crusade for Peace modern history should get its due during Despite the failure of attempts to provide the celebrations and events to come later relief to Poland during World War I, this year. The excellent exhibit “From the issue of Polish independence was Poland with Love”, created by the History brought to the forefront, and post-war Meeting House and the Karta Center in relief carried out by the ARA, while an Warsaw recently, is a perfect example of extraordinary humanitarian endeavor in how this story should be told. The exhibit its own right, was a means of ensuring highlighted the extraordinary symbol that Poland remained free to the greatest of gratitude created by the Poles in extent that America was able to do at that thanks for American relief: 109 volumes time. As Herbert Hoover saw it, “Our containing 5.5 million signatures (twenty Americans had been more detached from percent of the pre-war population) and the war, and had the least degree of hate. beautiful illustrations, delivered to the Our statesmen were free to rise above it. White House in 1926. A searchable We had no ideas of acquiring territory database has been created online for Poles or reparations or profit. What to track down the signatures of their we wanted was for Europe to so order ancestors. Both of my grandfathers, then itself as to end wars.”21 America’s influence young boys, signed the volumes. Poland’s on Paderewski’s selection as Prime fate could have been far different were Minister of Poland, even if not the decisive it not for America’s intervention on her factor, shows that when Europe failed to behalf and the unlikely friendship between “order itself” in an acceptable manner, Colonel House and Ignacy Paderewski. the United States would push events Poland’s heavy reliance on the United in the direction it preferred. States for its security today is reason enough to highlight these historic ties The 116,000 American lives claimed of friendship between the two nations. in “the war to end war” was the price Nicholas Siekierski 21 H. Hoover, America’s First Crusade, 10. January 15, 2018

100 The Warsaw Institute Review poland: first to fight Bogusław Kopka phd, Paweł Kosiński phd Poland was the first country to firmly resist the brutal expansion of the totalitarian powers that were utterly indifferent to the rights of weaker countries. Poland’s armed resistance to German aggression on September 1, 1939, was a turning point in world politics towards the Third Reich. Contrary to the hopes of Adolf Hitler, on the third day after the commencement of military operations, the German attack on Poland transformed into a world war.

he six-year war gradually spilled the fate of the Axis Powers. From the first onto successive continents to the last day of war, Poland fought in and eventually spread to most accordance with the old motto of Tadeusz of the world. The fortunes Kosciuszko, Kazimierz Pułaski and its Tof the Allied and Axis forces changed nineteenth-century insurgents: many times. The most difficult period “for our freedom and yours” for the anti-Hitler coalition was between (o wolność naszą i waszą). the summers of 1940 and 1941. The most spectacular shifts of the front Glory to the Heroes were experienced by the USSR, which During the September Campaign in 1939, was forced into the Allied camp by the the Polish Army fought alone against Germans themselves. The Japanese attack the aggressors from the west, south and on the United States of America sealed east. In the face of the overwhelming

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Fourth Partition of Poland October 1939

advantage of the Wehrmacht and the Red From the first to the last Army, a defeat in the first stage of the war was inevitable. The last large Polish units day of war, Poland surrendered in the Lublin region at the beginning of October 1939. However, fought in accordance it is not an empty slogan to say that the Polish Army never laid down their with the old motto arms. The officers and sailors of three Polish destroyers (ORP Błyskawica, ORP of Tadeusz Kosciuszko, Grom and ORP Burza), two submarines Kazimierz Pułaski and (ORP Orzeł and ORP Wilk) and military transporters and mobilized civilian ships, its nineteenth-century fought ceaselessly. Later they were joined by refugees from Poland – Polish soldiers insurgents: “for our temporarily interned in Romania and Hungary – who after many adventures freedom and yours” were sent to France and Syria (a French mandate). (o wolność naszą Starting in November 1939, seven large i waszą). land units and eight aviation squadrons were formed out of the Polish soldiers

102 The Warsaw Institute Review Poland: First to Fight in France and mobilized Polish migrant workers. In the defense of France (in the second phase of the campaign, A total of 145 Polish pilots after the Germans broke through the front on the Somme and Aisne – including serving in four Polish under Lagarde and Clos du Doubs) and Norway (near Narvik), approximately squadrons of the Royal fifty thousand Polish soldiers took part in the fighting. In the second half of June Air Force (five percent 1940, around twenty-five thousand Polish soldiers were evacuated from France to of all RAF pilots) shot the British Isles. After a time, they would serve as the basis for the formation of the down approximately 1st Polish Corps, commanded successively by Generals Marian Kukiel, Józef Zając 170 German aircraft and and Mieczysław Boruta-Spiechowicz. Formed in Syria, the Independent Brigade damaged 36, representing of Carpathian Riflemen went to Palestine in order to save itself from internment, about twelve percent and was moved again to Egypt several months later. In the spring of 1941, of Luftwaffe losses. it was stationed at Mersa Matruh, and from August – together with British Ujejski and Mateusz Iżycki. By the end of units and a Czechoslovak battalion – the war almost fifteen thousand people defended Tobruk against the Italians served in the Polish Air Forces (pilots, and German siege for nearly four months. crews, ground and technical staff).

The Polish Air Force in Great Britain During the course of the war (apart was famous for taking part in the Battle from the aforementioned ships for Britain. The No. 303 Polish Fighter evacuated from the Baltic Sea and Squadron was the most effective unit militarized civilian ships in the Polish participating in the fighting. A total navy), ships provided by the British of 145 Polish pilots serving in four Polish also took part, including: ten fast attack squadrons of the Royal Air Force (five craft, six destroyers, three submarines percent of all RAF pilots) shot down and two cruisers. Polish-crewed ships approximately 170 German aircraft and took part in 1162 patrols and combat damaged 36, representing about twelve operations (fighting against surface percent of Luftwaffe losses. In addition, ships, submarines, coastal artillery Polish pilots in three-hundred combat and airplanes) and escorted 787 convoys aircraft took part in the bombing of operating on the Atlantic and Arctic Germany and German military facilities Oceans and adjacent seas. During the in occupied countries, fought in North war about 660 Polish sailors perished, Africa, Italy and even the Far East and and the navy lost one cruiser, four supported the Allied invasion of Western destroyers, one minesweeper, two Europe. During the war almost two submarines, six trawlers, two gunboats, thousand Polish airmen died or went six auxiliary vessels and eighteen missing in action. The Polish Air Forces mobilized merchant ships. For this in Great Britain were commanded entire period the navy was led by Vice by Generals Władysław Kalkus, Stanisław Admiral Jerzy Świrski. By the end of the

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Markowa, Poland, February 2, 2018. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki © Paweł Supernak (PAP) during a visit to The Ulma Family Museum of Poles Saving Jews in World War II in Markowa.

war, almost four thousand sailors served it. In August and September it was moved in the Polish Navy. to Palestine and Egypt (where Corporal After the German attack on the USSR Menachem Begin, future prime minister and the signing of special Polish-Soviet of Israel, was allowed release from agreements, it became possible to organize service). a Polish army composed of political prisoners who had been arrested earlier In 1943 the Polish Army was thrown onto in the Soviet occupation zone in eastern the Italian front with the Independent Poland and detained in the USSR. The Commando Company making it there commander of the Polish Armed Forces in the autumn, having made it through in the USSR, also released from the North Africa. At the turn of 1943 and Gulag, was General Władysław Anders. 1944, the 2nd Corps was transported Ultimately, six infantry divisions were to Italy, becoming part of the 8th British formed. In two stages in April and Army. Poles on the Italian front in August 1942, the army was evacuated 1944 played an active role in: defense to Iran (over 115,000 people went there operations along the Sangro River, by November, including around 78,500 a breakthrough of the Gustav Line during soldiers and 37,000 civilians – among the offensive on Rome (taking whom there were almost 18,000 children) the fortifications on Monte Cassino and from September 1942, together and Piedimonte in May), pursuit activities with the Polish Army in the Middle along the Adriatic coast to Ancona, East, formed the Polish Army in the East a breakthrough of the Gothic Line; (APW). In July 1943, the 2nd Polish Corps and in 1945, the attack on Bologna. of over 50,000 soldiers was formed out of Polish troops also took part in opening the

104 The Warsaw Institute Review Poland: First to Fight second front in Europe on June 6, 1944. In Operation Overlord, the largest air-sea invasion in history, units of the Polish In May 1945, the Polish Navy (five ships and eight militarized merchant ships) and the Polish Air Armed Forces totalled Force (eight fighter squadrons and three about two-hundred bomber squadrons) took part. At the turn of July and August, the 1st Armored thousand soldiers, but Division (16,000 soldiers, 380 tanks and 4,000 motor vehicles) were transported none of them was invited to France, commanded by Brigadier General Stanisław Maczek. Battles over to take part in the London nearly nine months led this unit through France, Belgium, Holland and Germany, Victory Celebrations including: a battle in the Falaise-Chambois and Ormel hills, the operational pursuit on June 8, 1946. of the 7th German Army, the crossing and only in May 1945 was it sent for of the Seine and Somme, the liberation occupation duty in Germany. of Abbeville, Ypres, Ghent , Lokeren, St.-Nicolas, Stekene, St.-Gilles, Baarle- During these battles the Polish 2nd Corps -Nassau and Bredy. Furthermore they lost about seventeen thousand soldiers attacked Moerdijk with the task of taking and officers (about thirty-six percent control of the two longest bridges in of its personnel), including 2,301 killed; Europe and seizing a bridgehead on the the 1st Armored Division lost about other side of the Meuse (this task could five thousand soldiers (about thirty-one not be carried out because the retreating percent of its personnel), including 1,053 Germans blew up the bridges) and a few killed; the 1st Parachute Brigade lost months later, chasing the enemy on the a total of about 400 soldiers (about territory of the Reich, crowned by the twenty--three percent of personnel), occupation of Wilhelmshaven, the base including forty-seven killed. The total of the German Navy. casualties of the Polish Armed Forces in the West amounted to about forty-three On September 18, 1944, the 1st thousand soldiers, including 7,608 killed Independent Parachute Brigade (as part in action or later from wounds sustained of the 1st British Airborne Division) in battle. In May 1945, the Polish Armed commanded by Brigadier General Forces totalled about two-hundred Stanisław Sosabowski, was sent to fight for thousand soldiers, but none of them was bridges on the Rhine in the Netherlands invited to take part in the London Victory and open the way to the Ruhr Basin; Celebrations on June 8, 1946. though its soldiers had been training for almost three years for an entirely different The Home Army mission to support a national uprising During World War II, Poles not only in Poland. Until September 26, about fought in foreign lands but also within 1,600 Polish paratroopers fought in their occupied country. The Home Army Operation Market Garden, including (AK) was an integral part of the Polish heavy fighting in the Arnhem-Driel area Armed Forces and was subordinate to hold bridges and cover the retreat to the supreme commander. The first of bloodied British units. In October armed underground organizations were the brigade was withdrawn to England established in Poland before the end of

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at the moment of the collapse of German defenses. In the face of doubly negative The Home Army (AK) conditions (steadily increasing, stiff resistance from the Wehrmacht and the was an integral part of the lack of political agreement between the Republic of Poland and the USSR), the AK Polish Armed Forces and leadership decided to conduct Operation Tempest. Regional AK units engaged were subordinate to the in open warfare from January to November 1944, as the German-Soviet supreme commander. The front approached. The earliest battles took place in Volhynia, then in Podolia, first armed underground Vilnius, Białystok, Polesie, Lviv, the Lublin region, Kraków, in and around Warsaw, organizations were in Radom, Kielce and Łódź. All AK operations that led to revealing themselves established in Poland to the Red Army ended with the arrest of Polish officers and the forced enlistment before the end of of soldiers into the Soviet-controlled September 1939. People’s Army of Poland. September 1939. The Service for Poland’s The Warsaw Uprising of 1944 ended Victory (SZP) was established in Warsaw after two months of heroic fighting. on September 27. The order to organize The insurgents did not receive any the Union of Armed Struggle (ZWZ) – effective help from the Soviets. Though based on the structures of the SZP – was it was justifiable militarily, great power issued in Paris on November 13 by the politics prevented it – Stalin was doing supreme commander. At the end of June everything to prevent the reconstruction 1940 (after the defeat of France), the of a sovereign and democratic Poland. leadership of the ZWZ was transferred to Facing the Red Army’s occupation of Poland. In order to elevate the military the entire territory of pre-war Poland, union to a national armed force, in which the last commander of the AK Brigadier all soldiers in active military service serve, General Leopold Okulicki issued an order the ZWZ was renamed as the Home Army in Częstochowa on January 19, 1945 to (without any organizational changes) on disband the organization. In the spring February 14, 1942 in London. Included in of 1944, the Home Army numbered over this action of merging smaller groups into 350,000 sworn soldiers. the Armed Forces in the Country, were In March 1945, fifteen leaders of the the Socialist People’s Guard (1940), the Polish Underground State, lured by National Military Organization (1942), the promise of peace negotiations, were the Peasant Battalions and the National treacherously arrested by the NKVD. Confederation (1943) and the National They were immediately transported by Armed Forces (1944). plane to Moscow and after several weeks of investigation, they were tried in June. The main task of the ZWZ-AK was to On-call Soviet judges, who had convicted conduct armed resistance against the the “old” Bolsheviks in Stalinist show German occupiers (intelligence, sabotage trials in the 1930s, gladly deprived the and subversion) and to prepare a nation- undisputed leaders of the Polish nation -wide uprising, which was to break out of their freedom. This took place during

106 The Warsaw Institute Review Poland: First to Fight the negotiations on the establishment of the Soviet-sponsored Polish Provisional Government of National Unity, under By the end of military the patronage of: the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the USSR Vyacheslav Molotov, operations, the total the British Ambassador to Russia Sir Archibald Clark Kerr, and the U.S. casualties of the Polish Ambassador to Russia Averell Harriman. Army fighting alongside Stalin’s Polish Army A separate chapter in the history of the the Red Army amounted Polish armed forces was written by units formed by the order of Joseph Stalin to over sixty-seven starting in May 1943. The Polish 1st Tadeusz Kościuszko Infantry Division thousand, including was created as the initial unit of the Polish approximately seventeen People’s Army on August 10, 1943. It was expanded into the 1st Polish Corps on thousand killed; Stalin March 16, 1944, then transformed and later renamed on July 29, 1944 into the treated Berling's soldiers 1st Polish Army. On August 8, 1944, the 2nd Polish Army was also created. All of as cannon fodder. these units were military and politically subordinate to the USSR and in direct over sixty-seven thousand, including opposition to the plans of the Polish approximately seventeen thousand killed; government-in-exile. The commanding Stalin treated Berling’s soldiers as cannon officers had either served in the Polish fodder. In May 1945, the Polish People’s Army and then recruited by the NKVD Army amounted to about 370,000 soldiers. while in Soviet captivity in 1939–1941, The “Polish authorities” installed by or were specially delegated Red Army the Soviets west of the German-Soviet officers and graduates of separate courses “friendship border” of 1939, could carry and officers’ schools. The commander out conscriptions there, although they of the 1st Division and the 1st Army were boycotted in anticipation of the was Brigadier General Zygmunt Berling return of the legitimate government (Stalin granted him the rank of general). from London. The soldier’s ranks were filled by exiles who failed to join the Polish Army that The Sovereign Polish had been evacuated to Iran a year earlier Authorities or by Poles living on Polish territory The Polish government, unlike most gradually occupied by the Red Army of the governments of countries invaded starting in the second half of 1944. Polish by Germany, never surrendered to the troops on the Eastern Front fought against aggressors or disgraced themselves German armies in Ukraine, Belarus, and through collaboration with the occupation the territories of Poland, Germany authorities. After the attack by the USSR, and Czechoslovakia. on September 17, 1939, the president of Poland, the supreme commander By the end of military operations, the total of the Polish Army and the Polish casualties of the Polish Army fighting government, left the country. The Polish alongside the Red Army amounted to authorities intended to get to France

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through Romania and there, with the Kingdom and the United States help of Western allies, coordinate on July 6, 1945. the further struggle for the liberation of the homeland. After the catastrophic plane crash at Gibraltar in July 1943, in which General However, the hopes of President Ignacy Sikorski was killed, Stanisław Mikołajczyk Mościcki, Marshal Edward Śmigły-Rydz became Prime Minister, and General and Prime Minister Felicjan Sławoj Kazimierz Sosnkowski the Commander- Składkowski, went up in smoke. -in-Chief. Due to the criticism of the The Romanian authorities, under allies’ passivity in the face of the Warsaw pressure from Berlin, Moscow and Paris, Uprising, General Sosnkowski was demanded that the Polish authorities replaced in September 1944 by General waive their sovereign state prerogatives Tadeusz Bór-Komorowski (who was in (Germans and the Soviets – because they German captivity from October 5, 1944 were intent on annihilating the Polish to May 5, 1945, and his duties for much state, and the French – because they of that time were carried out by General did not want to cooperate with people Władysław Anders). After the resignation disgraced by military disaster, but to of Prime Minister Mikołajczyk whom they had treaty obligations). in November 1944, he was replaced When the Poles did not meet these by Tomasz Arciszewski. demands, they were forcibly interned. The Phenomenon of the Polish This regrettable fact, however, was not the Underground State end of Polish legal statehood. According During the war, the Polish state did not to Article 24 of the Constitution of the just exist in exile. Its secret structures, Republic of Poland (the so-called April subordinate to the Polish Government- Constitution of 1935) in wartime, the -in-exile, also functioned in the territories president of Poland was authorized to occupied by Germany and the USSR. appoint his successor. After some turmoil The Polish Underground State (the term (the original candidate, Major Bolesław was first used in the underground press Wieniawa-Długoszowski, the Polish in January 1944) operated from ambassador in Italy, was rejected due September 1939 (the creation of to the intrigues of the pre-war political the Service for the Victory of Poland) opposition and the repeat pressure of until July 1945 (the self-dissolution the French government), Władysław of the Council of National Unity and Raczkiewicz became president at the end the Government Delegation of September. A few days later, the new to the Country). president appointed General Władysław Sikorski as Prime Minister, and he formed The underground state developed thanks a coalition cabinet, and was also appointed to the broad support of loyal Polish Commander-in-Chief soon after. citizens and the agreement of the most Until December 1939, Polish authorities important political parties, which had operated in Paris, and later in Angers, been in the political opposition until the where they held extraterritoriality status. start of the war. These included After the fall of France, the president, the Polish Socialist Party, Peasant supreme commander and government Party and National Party; these were moved to London and there they represented in the Main Political exercised legal power, until the disgraceful Council, part of the Service for Poland’s withdrawal of recognition by the United Victory. The organization evolved and

108 The Warsaw Institute Review Poland: First to Fight

© Tomasz Gzell (PAP) Warsaw, Poland, February 26, 2015. An exhibition of unpublished aerial photographs of Warsaw at the Jabłkowski Brothers Department Store. The photos were taken by the Luftwaffe on September 20, 1939. changed names numerous times between October 1939 and July 1945: the Main National Defense Council, The Polish government, the Political Coordination Committee of the Government Delegation to unlike most of the the Country, the National Political Representation, and finally, governments of countries the Council of National Unity. invaded by Germany, The Government Delegate for Poland governed the underground civil never surrendered administration in the country (in the rank of deputy prime minister from to the aggressors or May 1944) on behalf of the authorities in London. By the end of the occupation, disgraced themselves the administration consisted of more through collaboration than a dozen departments. The most important tasks of the Polish with the occupation Underground State were: expanding the struggle for independence and authorities.

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Warsaw, Poland, May 10, 2017. A monument to Captain Witold Pilecki on Polish Army Avenue in Warsaw's Żoliborz district.

sovereignty of the country and for against the Jews – both Polish its defense after the war, maintaining and foreign citizens brought continuity of state institutions, to the territories of occupied Poland. supporting the care of especially This information was provided by the persecuted fellow citizens (including Polish government to the governments Jews), organizing underground teaching of the allied powers. As early June 1942, – especially secondary and higher Prime Minister Sikorski, in a radio education prohibited by the Germans, address broadcast by the BBC, presented ensuring the undisturbed seizure of the situation of the Jewish population power after the end of hostilities and in occupied Poland and asked the Allies preparing political and economic reforms to bring the Germans to account for the in a democratic spirit. crimes they had committed. In December During the occupation, the emissaries 1942, the Polish ambassador in London, of the Polish Underground State Edward Raczyński, gave the governments informed the Polish government in of the signatory states of the Declaration London about German genocide of The United Nations an official

110 The Warsaw Institute Review Poland: First to Fight

The Polish Underground State (the term was first used in the underground press in January 1944) operated from September 1939 (the creation of the Service for the Victory of Poland) until July 1945 (the self-dissolution of the Council of National Unity and the Government Delegation to the Country).

issued the regulation on October 15, © Tomasz Gzell (PAP) 1941. Nevertheless, there were many courageous people who decided to help diplomatic note from the Government the persecuted. Though more than 6,700 of Poland. In response, these Poles have been honored as Righteous governments announced a joint Among the Nations since 1963, this declaration in London, Washington does not reflect the scale of the aid. The and Moscow condemning German current estimates of Polish historians crimes. Legendary courier from Warsaw (Teresa Prekerowa and Władysław and emissary of the Polish Underground Bartoszewski) indicate that most State Jan Karski even met with President probably it was about 300,000 Poles who Franklin Delano Roosevelt in July 1943. helped. Some of them suffered a cruel Poland’s dramatic appeals to exert real death, often together with their families. pressure on the criminals (e.g. the threat One such shocking case is the fate of the of retaliatory bombings) remained Ulma family, who on March 24, 1944, unanswered. were murdered by German police posted in Łańcut. In addition to the eight Jews The penalty for assisting Jews in occupied from the Didner, Goldman and Grunfeld Poland was death. The Governor- families whom they had hidden, the -General of occupied Poland Hans Frank Germans shot Józef Ulma, his wife

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The Ulma Family, The Museum of Poles Saving Jews in World War II in Markowa.

Wiktoria (nine months pregnant) and to Jews. On December 4, 1942, this six children: Stanisława (8 years old), committee was transformed into the Barbara (6), Władysław (5), Franciszek Council for Aid to Jews – Żegota. The (4), Antoni (3) and Maria (1). main centers of the Council subordinate to the Polish Government-in-exile, were Private civic initiatives also led to the located in Warsaw, Kraków and Lviv. institutionalization of assistance actions. Żegota’s activity consisted in organizing On September 27, 1942, Zofia Kossak- help in the form of food, medicine and -Szczucka and Wanda Krahelska- clothes as well as searching for safe -Filipowicz founded the “Konrad Żegota” hiding places and providing ῾Aryan’ Temporary Committee for Assistance documents. Around 4,000 Jews in hiding

112 The Warsaw Institute Review Poland: First to Fight received material support from Żegota, Gniazdowski Mateusz, Losses Inflicted on Poland and about 50,000 false documents were by Germany during World War II. Assessments furnished. and Estimates—an Outline, “The Polish Quarterly The Catholic Church in Poland gave of International Affairs”, 2007 (16), no. 1, p. 94–126 – This article is available from the Central invaluable assistance in issuing fictitious and Eastern European Online Library at https:// birth certificates and sheltering many www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=152061. Jews in its monasteries. It is also worth mentioning the efforts of Irena Sendler, Lukas Richard C., Forgotten Holocaust. The Poles who directed the children’s section Under German Occupation 1939-44, New York, of Żegota in Warsaw (in 1965 she was Hippocrene Books, 2012. honored with the Righteous Among Mauldin Wayman Parker, Akers Donald S., the Nations medal, in 1983 she planted The Population of Poland, Washington, U.S. Govt. a tree in the Forest of the Righteous, Print. Off., 1954. and in 1991 she received honorary 1939–1945 War Losses of Poland, ed. Roman Israeli citizenship), where she managed Nurowski, Warsaw, Zachodnia Agencja Prasowa, to save over 2,000 Jewish children led 1960. out of the Warsaw Ghetto. Most of them Piesowicz Kazimierz, Social and demographic were placed in Polish families. Several consequences of World War II and the German hundred were saved thanks to the help occupation in Poland, “Oeconomica Polona. of Sister Matylda Getter, the mother Journal of the Economic Committee of the Polish provincial of the Franciscan Sisters Academy of Sciences and of the Polish Economic of the Family of Mary in Warsaw Society” 1983, Vol. 10, nr. 1, p. 65–94. (Congregatio Sororum Franciscalium Piotrowski Tadeusz, Poland’s Holocaust. Ethnic Familiae Mariae) – these children Strife, Collaboration with Occupying Forces and survived the war in orphanages Genocide in the Second Republic, 1918–1947, and monasteries belonging to the Jefferson (North Carolina)-London, McFarland congregation, among others in Anin, Publishing, 1998. Białołęka, Chotomów, Płudy and in Warsaw itself. About two-hundred other Poles Victims of the Nazi Era – This article is available from the United States Holocaust children were sent to the Father Boduena Memorial Museum at https://www.ushmm. Home, an orphanage of the Municipal org/m/pdfs/2000926-Poles.pdf. Welfare Department in Warsaw, and about one-hundred teenagers ended Proch Franciszek, Poland’s Way of the Cross, up in the underground resistance. 1939-1945, New York, Polish Association of Former Political Prisoners of Nazi and Soviet Concentration Camps, 1987. Bogusław Kopka, Paweł Kosiński January 15, 2018 Righteous among nations. How Poles helped the Jews, 1939–1945, edited by Władysław Bartoszewski and Zofia Lewin, London, Bibliography Earlscourt Publications Ltd., 1969; The Samaritans. Heroes of the Holocaust, Bartoszewski Władysław, The blood shed unites us; pages from the history of help to the Jews in by Władysław Bartoszewski and Zofia Lewin, occupied Poland, Warszawa, Interpress, 1970. New York, Twayne Publishers, [1970]. Eberhardt Piotr, Ethnic Groups and Population Statement on war losses and damages of Poland Changes in Twentieth-Century Central-Eastern in 1939–1945, Warsaw, Poland Bureau of War Europe: History, Data, Analysis, translated Damages (BOW), 1947. by Jan Owsinski, London, Routledge, 2015. Eberhardt Piotr, Political Migrations In Poland Zieliński Henryk, Population changes in Poland, 1939–1948, Warsaw, Wydawnictwa Uniwersytetu 1939–1950, New York, National Committee Warszawskiego, 2015. for a Free Europe, 1954.

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