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A Central European Precipitation Climatology &Ndash Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 22, No. 3, 235–256 (October 2013) Open Access Article Ó by Gebru¨der Borntraeger 2013 A Central European precipitation climatology – Part I: Generation and validation of a high-resolution gridded daily data set (HYRAS) Monika Rauthe*, Heiko Steiner, Ulf Riediger, Alex Mazurkiewicz and Annegret Gratzki Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany (Manuscript received October 05, 2012; in revised form March 26, 2013; accepted March 26, 2013) Abstract A new precipitation climatology (DWD/BfG-HYRAS-PRE) is presented which covers the river basins in Germany and neighbouring countries. In order to satisfy hydrological requirements, the gridded dataset has a high spatial resolution of 1 km2 and a daily temporal resolution that is based on up to 6200 precipitation stations within the spatial domain. The period of coverage extends from 1951 to 2006 for which gridded, daily precipitation fields were calculated from the station data using the REGNIE method. This is a combination between multiple linear regression considering orographical conditions and inverse distance weighting. One of the main attributes of the REGNIE method is the preservation of the station values for their respective grid cells. A detailed validation of the data set using cross-validation and Jackknifing showed both seasonally- and spatially-dependent interpolation errors. These errors, through further applications of the HYRAS data set within the KLIWAS project and other studies, provide an estimate of its certainty and quality. The mean absolute error was found to be less than 2 mm/day, but with both spatial and temporal variability. Additionally, the need for a high station network density was shown. Comparisons with other existing data sets show good agreement, with areas of orographical complexity displaying the largest differences within the domain. These errors are largely due to uncertainties caused by differences in the interpolation method, the station network density available, and the topographical information used. First climatological applications are presented and show the high potential of this new, high-resolution data set. Generally significant increases of up to 40% in winter precipitation and light decreases in summer are shown, whereby the spatial variability of the strength and significance of the trends is clearly illustrated. Keywords: Precipitation measurement, daily interpolation, climate, KLIWAS. 1 Introduction d for climate analyses in regions without any or with Our ecosystem and civilisation strongly depend on water only sparse measurements (e.g. BECKER et al., resources. It is therefore important to know not only how 2013; SCHNEIDER et al., 2013), d precipitation patterns have changed, but also how they for regional climate analyses and for pattern analyses on different spatial scales (e.g. JACOBEIT et al., 2009; are likely to evolve in the future. To project future ´ changes correctly, past regional and global patterns of HUNDECHA and BARDOSSY, 2005). precipitation have to be analysed and understood. Despite the rapid progress achieved in the last two decades in Over the past few decades changes in precipitation pat- estimating precipitation from radar and satellite observa- terns have been observed, but it is very difficult to differ- tions, gauge observations still play a critical role in doc- entiate between natural changes and those due to global umenting precipitation and their patterns due to their warming. Nevertheless, there is clear evidence supporting direct measurement method and lenghtly time series. an anthropogenic influence on precipitation and its distri- However, the stations for precipitation observations are bution due to climate change (SOLOMON et al., 2007). often irregularly spatially and temporally distributed, Since the 1990’s there have been numerous studies making climatological analyses more complicated. There focused on climatic variation in Central Europe, with are many reasons why interpolation to a regular grid is a much attention directly on Germany. The observation- prerequisite to such analyses: based studies have concentrated in the last years more and more on developing a set of indices or trends through d for the bias correction of climate models and their eval- use of historic meteorological observation databases (e.g. uation [e.g. BOE´ et al., 2007; BERG et al., 2012), ZOLINA et al., 2008; MOBERG and JONES, 2005; HUNDE- d for impact modelling, e.g. hydrological models e.g. CHA and BA´ RDOSSY, 2005; KLEINTANK et al., 2002; BRONSTERT et al., 2007; LENDERINK et al., 2007; FREI and SCHA¨ R, 1998). Changes in precipitation KRAHE et al., 2009), regimes, frequencies and extremes are found and sup- *Corresponding author: M. Rauthe, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Str. ported by an accumulating amount of evidence that sug- 135, 63067 Offenbach, e-mail: [email protected] gests they are the result of global warming (e.g. FREI 0941-2948/2013/0436 $ 9.90 DOI 10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0436 Ó Gebru¨der Borntraeger, Stuttgart 2013 236 M. Rauthe et al.: A Central European precipitation climatology – Part I: HYRAS Meteorol. Z., 22, 2013 et al., 2006). In Germany and Central Europe there has change on waterways and navigation – searching for been a marked and significant increase in daily winter options of adaptation’’, www.kliwas.de). KLIWAS is part precipitation and a small and less significant decrease of the German Adaptation Strategy (DAS) and a collab- in the summer (e.g. ZOLINA et al., 2008; ALEXANDER orative programme of the German Meteorological Ser- et al., 2006). Without a doubt, the magnitudes and fre- vice (DWD), the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG), quencies of daily precipitation have become more the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) extreme in winter and generally less so in summer (e.g. and the Federal Waterways Engineering and Research ZOLINA et al., 2008; KLEINTANK et al., 2002), although Institute (BAW). Within the context of the KLIWAS there is evidence to suggest that extreme events in sum- research programme and the HYRAS pilot study funded mer in some places in Central Europe could be becoming by the BfG, the DWD developed gridded data sets of rel- more intense. Most studies that have investigated trends evant hydrological parameters on a daily basis for in the spring and autumn seasons also show similar but Germany and the neighbouring river basins. This paper less significant increases to those found in winter (e.g. focuses on the precipitation data set. The currently exist- HUNDECHA and BA´ RDOSSY, 2005). These results are also ing climatologies provide neither the full spatial coverage consistent with other Northern European countries, e.g. of German river basins needed for studies on potential for the United Kingdom (OSBORN and HULME,2002). consequences of climate change for navigation on As temperature rises, the likelihood of precipitation German waterways nor the spatial resolution down to falling as rain rather than snow also increases. This is 1 km and/or the daily temporal resolution needed for especially true in autumn and spring at the beginning hydrological modelling (e.g. SCHNEIDER et al., 2013; and end of the snow season and in areas where tempera- HAYLOCK et al., 2008, EFTHYMIADIS et al., 2006; tures are near freezing. Such changes are observed espe- SCHWARB, 2000, FREI and SCHA¨ R, 1998; MU¨ LLER cially over land in middle and high latitudes of the WESTERMEIER, 1995). Regarding hydrological studies Northern Hemisphere, leading to increased rains but the need for high-resolution precipitation data is always reduced snow pack and consequently diminished water in great demand. resources during summer (e.g. SOLOMON et al., 2007). In this article we present the DWD/BfG-HYRAS v2.0 Nevertheless, the often spotty and intermittent nature of precipitation data set (HYRAS-PRE) covering Germany changes in observed patterns for mean precipitation are and neighbouring river basins using as many of the avail- complex. As climate changes, several influences alter able rain-gauge observations as possible between 1951 precipitation amount, intensity, frequency and type and 2006. The data set is created using the REGNIE directly. Warming accelerates land surface drying and (‘‘REgionalisierte NIEderschlagsho¨he’’, engl. regionalised increases the potential incidence and severity of droughts. precipitation amount) method, which is comprehensively However, a well-established physical law (the Clausius- described for the first time. The REGNIE dataset for Clapeyron relation) determines that the water-holding Germany is well-known both in the hydrological and mete- capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% for orological communities. Studies on meteorological fore- every 1°C rise in temperature. This generally tends to casting (SCHWITALLA et al., 2008), on climate simulation cause increased precipitation intensities and the risk of (BELLPRAT et al., 2012; BERG et al., 2012; KOTLARSKI heavy rain and snow events (BERG et al., 2013; BENGTS- et al., 2012), hydrological (GRASSELT et al., 2008; SON et al., 2009; O’GORMAN and SCHNEIDER, 2009). PHOTIADOU et al., 2011) or ecological (TO¨ LLE et al., Fundamental theory, climate model simulations and 2012; SAMANIEGO et al., 2013) modelling have all used empirical evidence all confirm that warmer climates, REGNIE data. One of the research tasks within KLIWAS owing to increased water vapour, lead to more intense was to investigate how well this method could be adapted precipitation events even when the total
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