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2019 Monitoring Report on the German Strategy for Adaptation To 2019 Monitoring Report on the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change Report by the Interministerial Working Group on Adaptation to Climate Change 1 Imprint Publisher: Umweltbundesamt (German Environment Agency) Postfach 14 06 06844 Dessau-Roßlau Phone: +49 340-2103-0 [email protected] Internet: www.umweltbundesamt.de /umweltbundesamt.de /umweltbundesamt Editors: Petra van Rüth (KomPass – Kompetenzzentrum Klimafolgen und Anpassung, Umweltbundesamt / Climate Impacts and Adaptation in Germany, German Environment Agency) Konstanze Schönthaler, Stefan von Andrian-Werburg, Mareike Buth (Bosch & Partner GmbH) Design: Stefan von Andrian-Werburg, Konstanze Schönthaler (Bosch & Partner GmbH) Translation: Brigitte Geddes (Geddes Language Services) Image sources: Title: Robert Kneschke / stock.adobe.com Authors of any other images, see captions Publication as pdf: www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/monitoring- The information given in this publication is correct as at: bericht-2019 November 2019 www.klivoportal.de/monitoringbericht2019 The IMAA (Interministerial Working Group on Adaptation to Climate Change) bears responsibility for the contents of this publication. The IMAA is managed by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU). The IMAA has representatives from the Auswärtiges Amt (AA/Foreign Office), Bundeskanzleramt (BK/Fed- eral Chancellery), Bundesministerium der Finanzen (BMF/Federal Minister of Finance), Bundesministerium des Innern, für Bau und Heimat (BMI/Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community), Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales (BMAS/Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs), Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF/ Federal Ministry of Education and Research), Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (BMEL/Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture), Bundesministerium der Verteidigung (BMVg/Federal Ministry of Defence), Bundes- ministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend (BMFSFJ/Federal Ministry of Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth), Bundesministerium für Gesundheit (BMG/Federal Ministry of Health), Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur (BMVI/Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure), Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi/Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy), Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammen­ arbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ/Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development). The German Environment Agency (UBA) attends as permanent advisory member. 1 Monitoringbericht 2019 zur DAS 2019 Monitoring Report on the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change Report by the Interministerial Working Group on Adaptation to Climate Change 2 Monitoring report 2019 on the DAS Content Introduction �������������������������������������������� 5 Soil ������������������������������������������������������ 80 Soil water supply – potential shortages �����������������������82 Loss of soil caused by water and wind impacts – Development of Germany’s climate �������� 17 painful losses �������������������������������������������������������������84 The development of Germany’s climate since the Humus strengthens soil resilience ������������������������������86 end of the 19th century �����������������������������������������������18 Grassland conservation – important for soil protection 88 Average climate changes ���������������������������������������������19 Changes in extreme situations �������������������������������������22 Agriculture �������������������������������������������� 90 New challenges from changed progress of season- al weather patterns ����������������������������������������������������92 Indicators of climate change impacts Increased yield fluctuations entail higher produc- and adaptation ������������������������������������� 29 tion risks ��������������������������������������������������������������������94 Yield losses caused by extreme weather events �����������96 Increased pressure from harmful organisms – a Human health ��������������������������������������� 30 distinct possibility ������������������������������������������������������98 Adaptation of management planning �������������������������100 Heat exposure raises health risks ��������������������������������32 Prospects for new crop species ���������������������������������102 Heatwaves cause additional mortalities �����������������������34 Different climate – different varieties ������������������������104 Allergenic plants gaining ground ���������������������������������36 Targeted application of pesticides �����������������������������106 Exotic mosquitoes bear new health risks ���������������������38 Irrigation becomes more lucrative �����������������������������108 Cyanobacteria – impairment of recreational bath- ing waters �������������������������������������������������������������������40 Early heat warning – prerequisite for effective Woodland and forestry ������������������������ 110 prevention �����������������������������������������������������������������42 People with pollen allergies need information ��������������44 Adaptability of natural tree species ���������������������������112 Spruce trees under increasing pressure����������������������114 Changes in incremental growth ���������������������������������116 Water regime, water management, Forestry becomes riskier �������������������������������������������118 marine and coastal protection ��������������� 46 Bark beetle – a major problem for spruce trees ����������120 Higher risk of forest fires ��������������������������������������������122 Increased occurrence of low groundwater levels �����������48 Climate-related crown defoliation? ����������������������������124 The availability of water is changing �����������������������������50 Mixed forests – diversity spreads the risk ������������������126 Repeated floodwater events� ���������������������������������������52 Proactive restructuring of forests – giving nature a Low-water events – no climate-change related helping hand ������������������������������������������������������������128 clusters found �������������������������������������������������������������54 Targeted conversion of endangered spruce stands �����130 Clear trend towards higher water temperatures in lakes 56 Genetic diversity – key to adaptation �������������������������132 Algal bloom in spring – major fluctuations from Humus – friend in need ��������������������������������������������134 year to year �����������������������������������������������������������������58 Forestry information on adaptation ���������������������������136 The North Sea is warming ��������������������������������������������60 The sea levels of North Sea and Baltic Sea are rising ����62 Biodiversity ����������������������������������������� 138 Increase in storm surges owing to sea level rise �����������64 Water usage clearly in decline �������������������������������������66 Temporal development of wild plant species un- Back to natural structures of water bodies ��������������������68 dergoes seasonal shifts ���������������������������������������������140 More shading – better cooling of water structures ��������70 The influence of climate change on bird species is Coastal protection requires extensive investments �������72 increasing �����������������������������������������������������������������142 Increase in naturally flooded areas benefits biodi- Fisheries ����������������������������������������������� 74 versity in alluvial meadows ����������������������������������������144 Climate change impacts gaining importance in Thermophilic fish species in North Sea and Baltic Sea ��76 landscape planning ���������������������������������������������������146 Developments in freshwater fisheries still uncertain �����78 Protected areas – refuges for animals and plants exposed to climate change ����������������������������������������148 Content 3 Building industry ��������������������������������� 150 Are holiday seasons shifting? �����������������������������������208 Are Germans changing their travel pattern? ����������������210 Heat stress in city environments �������������������������������152 Cooling degree days ��������������������������������������������������154 Flash floods – high damage potential for residen- Financial services industry ������������������� 212 tial areas ������������������������������������������������������������������156 Things might become expensive for insurance High weather-related damage in terms of property companies ����������������������������������������������������������������214 insurance ������������������������������������������������������������������158 Risk awareness – key to adequate provision ��������������216 Urban green spaces – cooling oases ��������������������������160 Greened buildings – good for adaptation to cli- mate change and for biodiversity �������������������������������162 Spatial planning, regional and Climate-adapted buildings – heat is kept out �������������164 Promotion of construction and refurbishment urban development ����������������������������� 218 adapted to climate change ���������������������������������������166 Still not enough insurance deals to cover natural Safeguarding space for evolution – priority and hazards ��������������������������������������������������������������������168 restricted areas reserved for wildlife and landscape ��220 Spatial planning for drinking water and groundwa-
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