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Chilean Copper Commission Research Department

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Chilean Copper Commission Research Department Chilean Copper Commission Research Department INVESTMENT IN THE CHILEAN MINING INDUSTRY Project Portfolio , 2013-­‐2021 DE / 08 / 2013 Intellectual Property Registration No. 231924 Translated by / Traducido Patricio por Mason, M.A. Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... 1 I. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 3 II. Mining Project Portfolio ..................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Copper Mining Projects ............................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Gold and Silver Mining Projects ................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Other Relevant Mining Segments ................................................................................................ 6 III. Projected Investment ....................................................................................................................... 7 3.1 Investment Profiles ...................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Investment Distribution by Project Status and Type ................................................................... 7 3.3 Regional Distribution of Projected Mining Investment ............................................................... 9 3.4 Projected Mining Investment Distribution by Country of Origin ................................................. 9 3.5 Portfolio Comparison, 2012-­‐2013 ................................................................................................ 9 IV. Projected Copper Production to 2021 ............................................................................................ 11 4.1 Mined Copper Production Capacity Through 2021 ................................................................... 11 4.2 Regional Distribution of Mined Copper Production Capacity.................................................... 12 4.3 Estimate Review ........................................................................................................................ 13 4.4 Maximum Concentrate Processing Capacity ............................................................................. 15 V. Estimated Production of Other Minerals ......................................................................................... 17 5.1 Gold and Silver ........................................................................................................................... 17 5.2 Molybdenum ............................................................................................................................. 18 5.3 Iron ............................................................................................................................................. 18 5.4 Industrial Minerals ..................................................................................................................... 19 VI. Concluding Remarks ....................................................................................................................... 20 Annex -­‐ A Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 22 Annex -­‐ B Copper Mining ........................................................................................................................ 25 Annex -­‐ C Gold and Silver Mining ............................................................................................................ 40 Annex -­‐ D Iron and Industrial Minerals ................................................................................................... 47 Translated by / Traducido Patricio por Mason, M.A. Chilean Copper Commission -­‐ Research Department July 2013 INVESTMENT IN THE CHILEAN MINING INDUSTRY 2013-­‐2021 Portfolio Executive Summary Investment in the Chilean mining industry stands at US$112.5 billion. Mining companies have announced 49 projects involving upwards of US$90 million each. Most are in progress or undergoing review, with investment decisions slated for no later than 2017 and start-­‐up by 2021. The project portfolio is as follows: PROJECTED MINING ESTMENT INV (US$ MN) Subtotal 2013- SECTOR Prior to 2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 After 2017 Share 2017 TOTAL 1) Copper (1.1 + 1.2 + 1.3) 10,386 7,701 10,401 10,977 12,805 13,024 54,908 21,425 86,718 77.0 1.1) CODELCO 3,397 3,969 4,623 4,757 4,552 4,565 22,466 4,683 30,546 27.1 1.2) Large Private Miners 6,765 3,613 5,390 5,586 7,454 7,735 29,778 16,357 52,899 47.0 1.3) Medium-Scale Miners 224 119 388 634 799 724 2,664 385 3,273 2.9 2) Gold & Silver 3,394 813 1,529 2,825 4,125 4,052 13,344 5,050 21,788 19.4 3) Iron & Industrial Minerals 673 1,069 925 553 318 183 3,049 329 4,050 3.6 Total (1+2+3) 14,452 9,583 12,855 14,355 17,249 17,259 71,301 26,803 112,556 100.0 Source: Cochilco, based on published reports. The portfolio is led by copper mining, with 28 projects and two additional investment lines.1 These include Codelco’s six structural projects, expansion of megadeposits such as Escondida, Pelambres and Collahuasi, concentrate operations replacing depleted SX-­‐EW operations (El Abra, Quebrada Blanca, , etc.) and new undertakings by medium-­‐size miners . Second in line is gold mining, with ten projects accounting for 19.4 percent of investment. Three major gold projects (Caspiche, Cerro Casale, El Morro) will also produce copper while two other replacement projects will help revitalize major gold mining operations. Iron, titanium and nitrate are also attracting fresh investment. Most investment targets are in northern Chile. While Antofagasta leads the way with US$43 billion or 38 percent, new large-­‐scale gold mining operations in Atacama are attracting a healthy US$34 billion or 30 percent. Fully 46 percent of all investment comes from Chilean companies , including majors such as Codelco and Antofagasta Minerals and medium-­‐size Copec and Pucobre. Accounting for the balance are eleven countries, notably Canada (27%) in gold mining and Japan with a wholly-­‐owned operation (Caserones) and a minority stake in several companies. India and China are venturing into iron mining. Due to the nature of the mining business, all investment forecasts are subject to change. In the industry, projects in progress are considered highly certain while those under review are noted for varying degrees of uncertainty. As development moves forward, projects undergo changes that tend to impact expected production capacity, investment amounts, and time frames. 1 Investment by Codelco in development and information projects other than structural projects. 1 Chilean Copper Commission -­‐ Research Department July 2013 This update to Cochilco’s 2012 mining investment report shows a US$8.2 billion increase in . value This is the result of a US$7.36 billion upward revision of 22 projects plus a net US$900 million gain caused by the entry of nine new projects and the start -­‐up or cancellation of seven other projects in 2012. In addition, ome s project schedules underwent changes ranging from a one-­‐year acceleration to a two-­‐year delay . Overall, shorter-­‐term investment s declined and more were shifted to beyond 2015. Additions to production capacity were also impacted as a . result Refined copper production capacity in 2021 should stand at 8.1 million tons, rising to 8.4 million once all projects start to operate at capacity. Most of the increase will come from concentrate production, which should rise from 3.7 million tons in 2012 to 6.8 million in 2021. By contrast, SX-­‐EW cathode production should decline from 2.3 million tons in 2012 to 1.4 million in 2021. One effect of increased concentrating capacity will be a sharper rise in ore volume fed to concentrating plants. Due to persistent declines in copper grades, throughput is expected to rise upwards of 180 percent, from 450 million TPY in 2012 to 1.2 billion TPY in 2021, with concentrate production capacity rising 86 percent from 3.7 to 6.8 million TPY in the same . period As a result, plants are being redesigned on a larger scale, resulting in added costs and requiring more energy, water and other inputs to produce a imilar s amount of copper, with the attendant impact on demand for these goods and services. Increased productivity is one of the new challenges facing the Chilean mining industry as it seeks to remain competitive. 2 Chilean Copper Commission -­‐ Research Department July 2013 I. Introduction The Chilean Ministry of Mines considers investment a strategic pillar of long-­‐term mining growth. This is an industry that turns resources in the ground into tangible wealth that contributes decisively to the economic and social growth of all Chileans. The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) systematically tracks mining investment and reviews planned projects and resulting opportunities. Findings are published annually for the benefit of interested public officials and private industry players . This report provides an update to mining industry investment in Chile, notably projected investment and production capacity potential through the next decade. It has three sections: Inventory of copper, gold, silver, iron, and industrial
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