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Cj E&M (130960 August 10, 2012 Company Report CJ E&M (130960 KQ) Media Broadcasting operations: The lone bright spot Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Jee-hyun Moon +822-768-3615 Trim TP to W28,000; Maintain Trading Buy call [email protected] We maintain our Trading Buy call on CJ E&M but trim our target price to W28,000 (from W30,000). Our target price cut is mainly due to the fact that we lowered our 2012 EPS estimate by 4.9% to reflect the companyÊs 2Q results. CJ E&M has made massive investments since 2H11 to enhance the competitiveness of its programs. And, in 2Q, the companyÊs broadcasting operations delivered revenue growth on the back of this improved competitiveness. However, all of the companyÊs non- broadcasting operations incurred operating losses in the quarter. And the outlooks for these operations are likely to stay murky until the success of their content (e.g., games, Trading Buy (Maintain) movies) and expenses are confirmed. Target Price (12M, W) 28,000 Growth story of broadcasting operations unfolding Share Price (08/09/12, W) 24,150 Expected Return (%) 15.9 CJ E&MÊs consolidated revenues increased 2.6% YoY in 2Q. However, the companyÊs EPS Growth (12F, %) -30.6 consolidated operating profit plunged 72.9% YoY, affected by increased production Market EPS Growth (12F, %) 12.9 expenses and sluggish earnings at non-broadcasting operations. P/E (12F, x) 20.0 1) The broadcasting operationÊs 2Q revenues soared 20% YoY, making a 54% contribution Market P/E (12F, x) 10.3 to revenues. The unitÊs operating profit also leaped QoQ despite an increase in production KOSDAQ 474.05 costs. Because the division saw an increase in highly-rated programs (which command Market Cap (Wbn) 916 premium ad rates), advertising revenues rose. A GentlemanÊs Dignity, a drama produced Shares Outstanding (mn) 38 by CJ E&M, is being aired by a terrestrial broadcaster, and overseas program sales Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 302 expanded in 2Q. Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 8 Dividend Yield (12F, %) 0.0 2) However, the companyÊs game and movie divisions saw plunges in revenues (down Free Float (%) 56.0 20% YoY and 40% YoY, respectively). Both units swung to negative in 2Q. The game unit 52-Week Low (W) 22,000 suffered a decline in revenues and an increase in expenses. And the movie unit saw a fall 52-Week High (W) 54,800 in ticket sales due to weak movie line-up and delays to the opening of a movie. Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 1.03 Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD) 3.3 Earnings momentum to pick up in 4Q Foreign Ownership (%) 3.6 We expect CJ E&MÊs broadcasting operations to see earnings improvements in 2H. The Major Shareholder(s) company is scheduled to air the singing competition Superstar K 4 starting on August CJ. et al (42.96%) 17th. We expect related ad revenues to expand by at least 10% (vs. the previous Price Performance seasonÊs). And an increasing number of the companyÊs programs produced using set (%) 1M 6M 12M seasons are seeing ad revenue growth. Absolute -6.9 -23.0 -35.3 The game unitÊs new releases are seeing delays. But we expect the unit to generate new Relative -12.6 -19.3 -43.1 revenues in 4Q. And all of the companyÊs units should see strong seasonality in 4Q. Thus, Key Business we expect CJ E&MÊs earnings momentum to rise until year-end. Dominant domestic cable TV program provider; Domestic paid content market leader § Share price Earnings & Valuation Metrics 130 KOSDAQ FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDAFCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA 110 (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (x) (x) (x) 90 12/10 98 19 19.5 6 1,208 51 -35 1.9 28.6 1.7 10.1 70 12/11 1,143 70 6.1 57 1,745 361 -127 7.7 17.4 1.8 3.7 50 12/12F 1,439 36 2.5 46 1,211 572 170 3.9 20.0 1.0 1.6 30 12/13F 1,548 100 6.5 60 1,584 482 106 4.8 15.3 0.9 1.7 8/11 12/11 4/12 8/12 12/14F 1,664 124 7.4 77 2,019 473 89 5.8 12.0 0.8 1.6 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. August 10, 2012 CJ E&M Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings trends and forecasts (Wbn, %) 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12P 3Q12F 4Q12F 2011 2012F 2013F Revenues 273 323 317 367 321 331 356 431 1,279 1,439 1,548 Broadcast 129 174 169 199 162 209 204 252 672 827 890 Game 76 67 55 60 60 54 56 68 258 237 265 Movie 31 45 54 62 62 26 51 60 191 198 208 Music/Performance/Online 38 36 39 46 37 43 46 52 158 177 185 Operating profit 15 35 13 14 -3 10 14 19 77 36 100 Broadcast 2 24 9 15 1 18 17 22 50 58 80 Game 13 8 4 3 1 -2 -1 -3 27 -5 16 Movie -1 3 1 1 -1 -5 2 3 5 -1 8 Music/Performance/Online 1 0 -1 -6 -3 -2 -2 -2 -5 -9 -6 OP margin 5.5 10.9 4.1 3.7 -1.0 2.9 3.9 4.4 6.0 2.5 6.5 Broadcast 1.8 13.8 5.2 7.6 0.3 8.5 8.4 8.9 7.5 7.0 9.0 Game 16.7 11.6 6.4 4.7 1.3 -3.0 -2.3 -3.9 10.4 -2.0 6.0 Movie -3.2 7.6 2.4 2.1 -2.1 -18.8 4.2 5.0 2.6 -0.5 4.0 Music/Performance/Online 2.9 0.3 -1.5 -12.5 -8.9 -4.2 -4.1 -3.7 -3.2 -5.0 -3.0 Net profit 3 33 11 11 -1 33 6 5 59 43 57 NP margin 1.2 10.3 3.5 3.0 -0.3 9.9 1.7 1.2 4.9 3.2 3.9 Revenue breakdown Broadcast 47.1 55.4 45.6 51.6 47.3 54.0 53.4 54.3 52.5 57.5 57.5 Game 27.9 23.9 23.7 22.0 27.7 20.8 17.3 16.4 20.1 16.5 17.1 Movie 13.9 9.6 17.2 10.1 11.3 13.9 17.0 16.9 15.0 13.7 13.4 Music/Performance/Online 11.1 11.1 13.4 16.2 13.7 11.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.3 11.9 OP breakdown Broadcast -34.2 40.7 2.0 75.9 15.3 68.0 67.7 111.9 65.4 133.7 81.1 Game 153.2 28.8 59.6 24.5 84.0 22.1 26.9 20.7 34.8 -10.9 16.1 Movie 8.9 28.8 30.3 -12.7 -6.7 9.6 10.0 9.6 6.5 -2.3 8.4 Music/Performance/Online -27.8 1.7 8.1 12.3 7.3 0.3 -4.6 -42.2 -6.6 -20.5 -5.6 YoY growth Revenue 18.1 24.5 10.1 15.6 17.4 2.6 12.4 17.5 16.8 12.5 7.6 Broadcast 19.8 21.4 28.3 20.8 25.7 20.0 20.3 26.4 22.5 23.1 7.6 Game 18.1 8.6 -20.2 -14.9 -21.2 -20.1 2.0 13.0 -2.8 -8.0 12.0 Movie -3.1 79.9 7.8 91.4 RR -43.1 -6.0 -3.5 37.7 3.2 5.1 Music/Performance/Online 47.1 26.0 0.5 -12.3 -1.6 17.9 17.8 13.6 10.9 12.0 4.2 Operating profit 89.8 198.1 -34.2 -36.3 TTR -72.9 7.8 40.1 26.6 -52.6 174.6 Broadcast TTB 400.0 2100.0 -6.2 -78.3 -25.8 94.2 49.0 169.9 15.3 38.4 Game 4.1 129.4 -70.3 -46.2 -93.7 TTR TTR TTR -17.8 TTR TTB Movie TTR 0.0 -78.3 -148.1 RR TTR 62.8 130.5 -32.4 TTR TTB Music/Performance/Online TTB -50.0 TTR TTR TTR RR RR RR TTR RR RR Net profit TTR -1.8 -45.7 -53.0 283.7 -27.6 33.4 Note: K-IFRS consolidated basis, 2011 net profit YoY growth is not marked due to lack of data of 2010 before merger Source: CJ E&M, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %) Previous Revised Diff. 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F Revenues 1,424 1,540 1,439 1,548 1.1 0.5 Operating profit 42 99 36 100 -14.4 1.3 Net profit 45 64 43 57 -5.3 -11.1 EPS 1,273 1,771 1,211 1,584 -4.9 -10.6 OP margin 2.9 6.4 2.5 6.5 NP margin 3.4 4.4 3.2 3.9 Note: K-IFRS consolidated basis Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 August 10, 2012 CJ E&M Figure 1.
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