Annex 3 Vulnerability Assessment for Road Transport
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WEATHER Weather Extremes: Assessment of Impacts on Trans- port Systems and Hazards for European Regions Deliverable 2: Transport Sector Vulnerability Annex 3 Vulnerability Assessment for Road Transport Status: Public Version: 1.1 (final draft) Date: 11.3.2011 Authors: Claus Doll, Niklas Sieber (Fraunhofer-ISI) . WEATHER D2 Annex 3 – Road Transport Study funded under the 7th framework program of the European Commission 2 WEATHER D2 Annex 3 – Road Transport Document details This document should be cited as: Doll, C. and N. Sieber (2011): Vulnerability Assessment for Road Transport. Contribution to Deliverable 2: Transport Sector Vulnerabilities within the research project WEATHER (Weather Extremes: Impacts on Transport Systems and Hazards for European Regions) funded under the 7th framework program of the European Commission. Project co-ordinator: Fraunhofer-ISI. Karlsruhe, 30.9.2010 Document title: Status Report 1 covering the project phase November 2009 to September 2010 Lead author: Claus Doll Contributions: Stefan Klug, Ina Partzsch (Fraunhofer), Riccardo Enei (ISIS), Norbert Sedlacek (HERRY) Version: 1.1 (final draft) Date: 11.3.2011 Status: Public Quality review: Accepted: The WEATHER project: Full title: WEATHER – Weather Extremes: Impacts on Transport Systems and Hazards for Euro- pean Regions. Duration: November 1st 2009 to April 30th 2012 Funding: Call 2008-TPT-1, 7th framework program of the European Commission, Directorate Gen- eral for Research and Technical Development Contract: Grant Agreement no. 233 783 Consortium: Fraunhofer-Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI), Karlsruhe – project co- ordinator Fraunhofer-Institute for Transportation and Infrastructure Systems (IVI), Dresden, Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CERTH), Helenic Institute for Transport (HIT), Thessaloniki Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines - International research Center on Environment and Development (SMASH-CIRED), Paris Karlsruhe Institute for Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Karlsruhe Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems (ISIS), Rome HERRY Consult GmbH, Vienna Agenzia Regionale Prevenzione e Ambiente dell'Emilia Romagna (ARPA-ER), Servizio Idro-Meteo-Clima (SIMC), Bologna NEA Transport Research and Training, Zoetermeer Internet: www.weather-project.eu Contact: Dr. Claus Doll Fraunhofer-Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI), Breslauer Str. 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany, T: +49 721 6809-354, E: [email protected] 3 WEATHER D2 Annex 3 – Road Transport Content 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 10 1.1 Scope of the paper ............................................................................ 10 1.2 Contents of the paper ........................................................................ 11 2 Overview of International Literature ................................................................. 14 2.1 Overview of sources .......................................................................... 14 2.2 General overview on extreme weather impacts on the road sector ................................................................................................. 17 2.3 Impacts on road infrastructures .......................................................... 20 2.3.1 Damages to infrastructure assets....................................................... 20 2.3.2 Infrastructure management and operations ........................................ 26 2.4 oImpacts on transport services and fleet management ...................... 31 2.4.1 Vehicle assets.................................................................................... 31 2.4.2 Transport service operations .............................................................. 32 2.5 Impacts on users and society ............................................................. 32 2.5.1 Safety issues ..................................................................................... 32 2.5.2 Congestion and delays ...................................................................... 39 3 Assessing Transport Sector and Media Data ................................................... 44 3.1 The damage cost database................................................................ 44 3.2 Estimating the costs of damage records ............................................ 46 3.2.1 Assessing infrastructure damages ..................................................... 48 3.2.2 Assessing infrastructure operations ................................................... 52 3.2.3 Assessing vehicle damages ............................................................... 54 3.2.4 Assessing vehicle operations ............................................................. 55 3.2.5 Assessing user time costs ................................................................. 55 3.2.6 Assessing accident impacts on health and life ................................... 56 4 WEATHER D2 Annex 3 – Road Transport 3.3 Results of the damage cost database ................................................ 56 3.4 Generalising the incident database results ......................................... 61 3.4.1 Methodology for generalising the incident database .......................... 61 3.4.2 Approach by cost elements ................................................................ 63 3.4.3 Vehicle assets and operations ........................................................... 64 3.4.4 User time and safety costs ................................................................. 65 3.4.5 Results and comments ...................................................................... 66 4 Alternative assessment by the Elasticity Model .............................................. 69 4.1 Definition of Extreme Events .............................................................. 69 4.2 Road damages caused by extreme winter conditions ........................ 70 4.3 Costs for snow removal and anti-icing ............................................... 72 4.4 Accidents caused by extreme weather ............................................... 73 4.4.1 Accidents cause by extreme precipitation .......................................... 73 4.4.2 Accidents caused by winter conditions ............................................... 74 4.4.3 Accidents caused by heat .................................................................. 75 4.4.4 Costs of accidents caused by extreme weather ................................. 75 4.5 Congestion and delays caused by extreme weather .......................... 76 4.5.1 Speed reduction due to winter conditions ........................................... 76 4.5.2 Speed reduction due to precipitation .................................................. 77 4.5.3 Costs of delays caused by extreme weather ...................................... 78 4.6 Summary of costs caused by extreme weather .................................. 78 5 Harmonisation and Generalisation of Evidence .............................................. 80 5.1 The hybrid model for generalisation ................................................... 80 5.2 European damage costs 2010 ........................................................... 83 5.3 Outlook to 2050 and beyond .............................................................. 87 5.4 Intermodal issues ............................................................................... 88 6 Final Remarks .................................................................................................... 89 5 WEATHER D2 Annex 3 – Road Transport References ................................................................................................................ 90 6 WEATHER D2 Annex 3 – Road Transport ndex of Tables Table 1: Classification of transport sector elements for assessment ........... 11 Table 2: Examples for general impact patterns ........................................... 12 Table 3: Classification of extreme weather event types .............................. 12 Table 4: Weather Impacts on Roads, Traffic and the Driver/Vehicle ........... 19 Table 5: Unit damages for roads and bridges (per km inundated) in Queensland, Australia ................................................................... 21 Table 6: Damage Cost caused by Katrina on Bridges ................................. 22 Table 7: Traffic damage indices for Canadian Conditions ........................... 23 Table 8: Synthesis of literature findings on infrastructure assets ................. 24 Table 9: Potential climate change impacts on the state highway network in New Zealand ............................................................... 27 Table 10: Snow and ice control measures in Finland .................................... 28 Table 11: Synthesis of literature findings on infrastructure operations .......... 29 Table 12: Synthesis of literature findings on vehicles assets ........................ 31 Table 13: Synthesis of literature findings on service operations .................... 32 Table 14: Synthesis of literature findings on safety ....................................... 37 Table 15: Synthesis of literature findings on delays ...................................... 41 Table 16: Weather events classification for road transport ............................ 45 Table 17: Road incident database dimensions ............................................. 46 Table 18: Synthesis of literature findings on delays .....................................