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Inventory of CI Impact Assessment Models for Climate Hazards

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Inventory of CI Impact Assessment Models for Climate Hazards D3.3 Inventory of CI Impact Assessment Models for Climate Hazards Contractual Delivery Date: 01/2018 Actual Delivery Date: 06/2018 Type: Document Version: 1.0 Dissemination Level: Public Statement This deliverable provides an inventory of approaches to assess the structural and functional/operational damages to Critical Infrastructures as a result of climate hazards. Direct and indirect losses are addressed. Approaches to model the infrastructure interdependencies are explained and discussed. Furthermore, stratified Monte Carlo simulations are explained as the suggested way to handle uncertainty in input data. Copyright by the EU-CIRCLE consortium, 2015-2018 EU-CIRCLE is a project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 653824. Please see http://www.EU-CIRCLE.eu/ DISCLAIMER: This document contains material, which is the copyright of EU-CIRCLE consortium members and the European Commission, and may not be reproduced or copied without permission, except as mandated by the European Commission Grant Agreement no. 653824 for reviewing and dissemination purposes. The information contained in this document is provided by the copyright holders "as is" and any express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose are disclaimed. In no event shall the members of the EU-CIRCLE collaboration, including the copyright holders, or the European Commission be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, exemplary, or consequential damages (including, but not limited to, procurement of substitute goods or services; loss of use, data, or profits; or business interruption) however caused and on any theory of liability, whether in contract, strict liability, or tort (including negligence or otherwise) arising in any way out of the use of the information contained in this document, even if advised of the possibility of such damage. EU- CIRCLE D3.3 Inventory of CI Impact Assessment Models for Climate Hazards Preparation Slip Name Partner Date From Ralf Hedel Fraunhofer IVI 12/06/2018 Reviewer Elisabetta Noce RINA 01/06/2018 Reviewer For delivery Athanasios Sfetsos NCSRD 13/06/2018 Document Log Issue Date Comment Author / Organisation A. Eleftheriadou, A. Sfetsos / 0.1 18/08/2017 Draft TOC NCSRD R. Hedel, N. Habermann / Fraunhofer IVI 0.2 14/09/2017 Revision TOC A. Sfetsos / NCSRD 0.3 30/04/2018 Integration of contributions EU-CIRCLE WP 3 partners 0.4 04/05/2018 Version to be reviewed R. Hedel, N. Habermann 1.0 12/06/2018 Revision after review, final version R. Hedel, N. Habermann Grant Agreement 653824 DISSEMINATION LEVEL EU- CIRCLE D3.3 Inventory of CI Impact Assessment Models for Climate Hazards Executive Summary This deliverable provides a description on the EU-CIRCLE damage and impact assessment. The EU-CIRCLE methodology focuses on these critical sectors: energy, transport, information and communications technology (ICT), water, chemicals, and buildings. Different approaches to predict damage and impacts are explained taking into account the different vulnerabilities of the structures under different types of climate hazards. The level of detail of the explanations differs certainly depending from the availability of documented experiences. While for instance for flood or wild fires, there exist extensive empirical knowledge to damages on buildings or roads, whereas on the other hand there is limited scientifically validated knowledge pertaining to damage and impacts due to droughts. Primary direct damage roughly can be differentiated in physical/structural and functional/operational damage. Secondary impacts are those that result from a failure of critical infrastructure (CI). Aside from damage to the assets, societal, economic and environmental aspects are discussed and multiple examples are provided on how damages and impacts can be estimated. Operational capacities of infrastructure assets depends in many cases from other infrastructure assets in the same network or even from the performance of assets in other networks. This means, that failures due to climate hazards to one assets can be propagated to other network elements. This report explains and discusses various methodological approaches for modelling of failure propagation. Among them models from different methodological “schools” such as system-dynamics, input-output inoperability, agent and network based, and also empirical models. These approaches are discussed regarding their strengths and weaknesses and thus some guidance on how to choose an appropriate approach is provided. Finally, the report explains how the modelling and simulation system EU-CIRCLE critical infrastructure resilience platform (CIRP)1 could handle uncertainty in data or assumptions by means of Monte Carlo simulation approach. This description may serve as the knowledgebase for the implementation of the analysis in all the EU- CIRCLE case studies. A variety of approaches could be tested therein already, among them approaches based on damage functions, cost based approaches, topological network analyses and many more. This report cannot give a final advice on which impact damage and impact categories is relevant and which is the best approaches to quantify it. This remains subject for discussion among the decisive stakeholders. 1 CIRP is „an innovative modular and expandable software platform that will assess potential impacts due to climate hazards; provide monitoring through new resilience indicators, and support cost-efficient adaptation measures” EU-CIRCLE consortium (2016d). Grant Agreement 653824 DISSEMINATION LEVEL EU- CIRCLE D3.3 Inventory of CI Impact Assessment Models for Climate Hazards Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................ 1 CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................................. 3 LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................................... 6 LIST OF DOMAIN SPECIFIC ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................... 1 1 AN OVERVIEW OF EU-CIRCLE DAMAGE AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY .............................. 1 1.1 Scope and overview of EU-CIRCLE damage and impact assessment ................................................ 1 1.2 EU-CIRCLE generic methodology for CI damage assessment ............................................................ 3 1.3 EU-CIRCLE holistic impact analysis .................................................................................................... 4 2 THE EU-CIRCLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT APPROACH ................................................................................... 6 2.1 Physical damage ................................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 Loss of performance .......................................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Casualties and injuries ....................................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Evacuation ....................................................................................................................................... 11 2.5 Release of harmful substances ........................................................................................................ 11 3 METHODOLOGICAL FUNDAMENTALS ...................................................................................................... 12 3.1 Physical/structural damage assessment methods .......................................................................... 12 3.2 Functional/operational damage assessment methods ................................................................... 16 4 THE EU-CIRCLE INVENTORY OF DAMAGE AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT APPROACHES .............................. 20 4.1 Physical/structural damage assessment ......................................................................................... 20 4.1.1 Energy sector .............................................................................................................................................. 20 4.1.2 Transport sector .......................................................................................................................................... 28 4.1.3 Water sector ............................................................................................................................................... 31 4.1.4 Chemical sector ........................................................................................................................................... 32 4.1.5 ICT sector..................................................................................................................................................... 34 4.1.6 Building Damage Models ............................................................................................................................ 37 4.2 Functional/operational
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