Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-57 Manuscript under review for journal Earth Syst. Dynam. Discussion started: 20 September 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018 Robert Vautard1, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh2, Friederike E. L. Otto3, Pascal Yiou1, Hylke de Vries2, Erik van Meijgaard2, Andrew Stepek2, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux4, Sjoukje Philip2, Sarah F. Kew2, Cecilia 5 Costella5, Roop Singh5, Claudia Tebaldi6 1Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris Saclay, Gif-sur- Yvette, France 2Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands 3Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK 10 4Météo-France, Direction des Services Climatiques, Toulouse, France 5Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre 6National Centre for Atmospheric Research, U. S. A. Correspondence to: Robert Vautard (
[email protected]) Abstract. Several major storms pounded Western Europe in January 2018, generating large damages and casualties. The two 15 most impactful ones, Eleanor and Friederike, are analysed here in the context of climate change. Near surface wind speed station observations exhibit a decreasing trend of the frequency of strong winds associated with such storms. High-resolution regional climate models on the other hand show no trend up to now and a small increase in the future due to climate change. This shows that that factors other than climate change, which are not represented (well) in the climate models, caused the observed decline in storminess over land. A large part is probably due to increases in surface roughness, as shown for a small 20 set of stations covering The Netherlands and in previous studies.