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Report No.384 ClimAtt: Tools for Climate Change Attribution of Extreme Weather Events Authors: Paul Leahy, Lucía Hermida Gonzalez, Kieran Hickey, Gerard Kiely, Myles Allen, Parvaneh Nowbakht and Adam Pasik www.epa.ie ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY Monitoring, Analysing and Reporting on the The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for Environment protecting and improving the environment as a valuable asset • Monitoring air quality and implementing the EU Clean Air for for the people of Ireland. We are committed to protecting people Europe (CAFÉ) Directive. and the environment from the harmful effects of radiation and • Independent reporting to inform decision making by national pollution. and local government (e.g. periodic reporting on the State of Ireland’s Environment and Indicator Reports). The work of the EPA can be divided into three main areas: Regulating Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Preparing Ireland’s greenhouse gas inventories and projections. Regulation: We implement effective regulation and environmental • Implementing the Emissions Trading Directive, for over 100 of compliance systems to deliver good environmental outcomes and the largest producers of carbon dioxide in Ireland. target those who don’t comply. Knowledge: We provide high quality, targeted and timely Environmental Research and Development environmental data, information and assessment to inform • Funding environmental research to identify pressures, inform decision making at all levels. policy and provide solutions in the areas of climate, water and sustainability. Advocacy: We work with others to advocate for a clean, productive and well protected environment and for sustainable Strategic Environmental Assessment environmental behaviour. • Assessing the impact of proposed plans and programmes on the Irish environment (e.g. major development plans). Our Responsibilities Radiological Protection Licensing • Monitoring radiation levels, assessing exposure of people in We regulate the following activities so that they do not endanger Ireland to ionising radiation. human health or harm the environment: • Assisting in developing national plans for emergencies arising • waste facilities (e.g. landfills, incinerators, waste transfer from nuclear accidents. stations); • Monitoring developments abroad relating to nuclear • large scale industrial activities (e.g. pharmaceutical, cement installations and radiological safety. manufacturing, power plants); • Providing, or overseeing the provision of, specialist radiation • intensive agriculture (e.g. pigs, poultry); protection services. • the contained use and controlled release of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs); Guidance, Accessible Information and Education • sources of ionising radiation (e.g. x-ray and radiotherapy • Providing advice and guidance to industry and the public on equipment, industrial sources); environmental and radiological protection topics. • large petrol storage facilities; • Providing timely and easily accessible environmental • waste water discharges; information to encourage public participation in environmental • dumping at sea activities. decision-making (e.g. My Local Environment, Radon Maps). • Advising Government on matters relating to radiological safety National Environmental Enforcement and emergency response. • Conducting an annual programme of audits and inspections of • Developing a National Hazardous Waste Management Plan to EPA licensed facilities. prevent and manage hazardous waste. • Overseeing local authorities’ environmental protection responsibilities. Awareness Raising and Behavioural Change • Supervising the supply of drinking water by public water • Generating greater environmental awareness and influencing suppliers. positive behavioural change by supporting businesses, • Working with local authorities and other agencies to tackle communities and householders to become more resource environmental crime by co-ordinating a national enforcement efficient. network, targeting offenders and overseeing remediation. • Promoting radon testing in homes and workplaces and • Enforcing Regulations such as Waste Electrical and Electronic encouraging remediation where necessary. Equipment (WEEE), Restriction of Hazardous Substances (RoHS) and substances that deplete the ozone layer. Management and structure of the EPA • Prosecuting those who flout environmental law and damage the The EPA is managed by a full time Board, consisting of a Director environment. General and five Directors. The work is carried out across five Offices: Water Management • Office of Environmental Sustainability • Monitoring and reporting on the quality of rivers, lakes, • Office of Environmental Enforcement transitional and coastal waters of Ireland and groundwaters; • Office of Evidence and Assessment measuring water levels and river flows. • Office of Radiation Protection and Environmental Monitoring • National coordination and oversight of the Water Framework • Office of Communications and Corporate Services Directive. The EPA is assisted by an Advisory Committee of twelve members • Monitoring and reporting on Bathing Water Quality. who meet regularly to discuss issues of concern and provide advice to the Board. EPA RESEARCH PROGRAMME 2021–2030 ClimAtt: Tools for Climate Change Attribution of Extreme Weather Events (2016-CCRP-MS.37) EPA Research Report Prepared for the Environmental Protection Agency by University College Cork and Oxford University Authors: Paul Leahy, Lucía Hermida Gonzalez, Kieran Hickey, Gerard Kiely, Myles Allen, Parvaneh Nowbakht and Adam Pasik ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY An Ghníomhaireacht um Chaomhnú Comhshaoil PO Box 3000, Johnstown Castle, Co. Wexford, Ireland Telephone: +353 53 916 0600 Fax: +353 53 916 0699 Email: [email protected] Website: www.epa.ie © Environmental Protection Agency 2021 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report is published as part of the EPA Research Programme 2021–2030. The EPA Research Programme is a Government of Ireland initiative funded by the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications. It is administered by the Environmental Protection Agency, which has the statutory function of co-ordinating and promoting environmental research. The authors would like to acknowledge the members of the project steering committee, namely Frank McGovern (EPA), Ray McGrath (University College Dublin), Phillip O’Brien (EPA), Laura Wilcox (Reading University), Mark Adamson (Office of Public Works), Séamus Walsh (Met Éireann), Saji Varghese (Met Éireann) and Anne Mason (Research Project Manager on behalf of the EPA). DISCLAIMER Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material contained in this publication, complete accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The Environmental Protection Agency, the authors and the steering committee members do not accept any responsibility whatsoever for loss or damage occasioned, or claimed to have been occasioned, in part or in full, as a consequence of any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of a matter contained in this publication. All or part of this publication may be reproduced without further permission, provided the source is acknowledged. This report is based on research carried out/data from 2017 to 2019. More recent data may have become available since the research was completed. The EPA Research Programme addresses the need for research in Ireland to inform policymakers and other stakeholders on a range of questions in relation to environmental protection. These reports are intended as contributions to the necessary debate on the protection of the environment. EPA RESEARCH PROGRAMME 2021–2030 Published by the Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland ISBN: 978-1-80009-006-4 July 2021 Price: Free Online version ii Project Partners Paul Leahy Parvaneh Nowbakht Environmental Research Institute Environmental Research Institute University College Cork University College Cork Cork Cork Ireland Ireland Tel.: +353 (0)21 490 1931 Tel.: +353 (0)21 490 1931 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Kieran Hickey Adam Pasik Environmental Research Institute Environmental Research Institute University College Cork University College Cork Cork Cork Ireland Ireland Tel.: +353 (0)21 490 1931 Tel.: +353 (0)21 490 1931 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Lucía Hermida Gonzalez Myles Allen Environmental Research Institute Environmental Change Institute University College Cork Oxford University Centre for the Environment Cork University of Oxford Ireland Oxford Tel.: +353 (0)21 490 1931 United Kingdom Email: [email protected] Tel.: +44 (0)1865 275848 Email: [email protected] Gerard Kiely Environmental Research Institute University College Cork Cork Ireland Tel.: +353 (0)21 490 1931 Email: [email protected] iii Contents Contents Acknowledgements ii Disclaimer ii Project Partners iii List of Figures vii List of Tables ix List of Boxes x Executive Summary xi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Study Area Definition 1 1.3 Precipitation Extremes in Ireland 1 1.4 Project Objective 2 2 Probabilistic Event Attribution 3 2.1 Background 3 2.2 Method 4 2.3 Models and Datasets Used in Attribution Studies 5 2.4 The EURO-CORDEX Downscaled Model Runs 6 2.5 Attribution of Weather Extremes in Ireland 6 2.6 Observational Data in Ireland 7 2.7 Indices of Extreme Precipitation 10 3 Extreme Weather Event Inventory 13 3.1 Introduction 13 3.2 Previous Inventories and Research 13 3.3 Challenges 15 3.4 Adopted Weather Extreme Definition 16 3.5 Weather Data 16 3.6 Data on Financial Losses 16 3.7 Return Periods 16 3.8
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