DOCSLIB.ORG

Climatt: Tools for Climate Change Attribution of Extreme Weather Events

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Climatt: Tools for Climate Change Attribution of Extreme Weather Events Report No.384 ClimAtt: Tools for Climate Change Attribution of Extreme Weather Events Authors: Paul Leahy, Lucía Hermida Gonzalez, Kieran Hickey, Gerard Kiely, Myles Allen, Parvaneh Nowbakht and Adam Pasik www.epa.ie ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY Monitoring, Analysing and Reporting on the The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for Environment protecting and improving the environment as a valuable asset • Monitoring air quality and implementing the EU Clean Air for for the people of Ireland. We are committed to protecting people Europe (CAFÉ) Directive. and the environment from the harmful effects of radiation and • Independent reporting to inform decision making by national pollution. and local government (e.g. periodic reporting on the State of Ireland’s Environment and Indicator Reports). The work of the EPA can be divided into three main areas: Regulating Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Preparing Ireland’s greenhouse gas inventories and projections. Regulation: We implement effective regulation and environmental • Implementing the Emissions Trading Directive, for over 100 of compliance systems to deliver good environmental outcomes and the largest producers of carbon dioxide in Ireland. target those who don’t comply. Knowledge: We provide high quality, targeted and timely Environmental Research and Development environmental data, information and assessment to inform • Funding environmental research to identify pressures, inform decision making at all levels. policy and provide solutions in the areas of climate, water and sustainability. Advocacy: We work with others to advocate for a clean, productive and well protected environment and for sustainable Strategic Environmental Assessment environmental behaviour. • Assessing the impact of proposed plans and programmes on the Irish environment (e.g. major development plans). Our Responsibilities Radiological Protection Licensing • Monitoring radiation levels, assessing exposure of people in We regulate the following activities so that they do not endanger Ireland to ionising radiation. human health or harm the environment: • Assisting in developing national plans for emergencies arising • waste facilities (e.g. landfills, incinerators, waste transfer from nuclear accidents. stations); • Monitoring developments abroad relating to nuclear • large scale industrial activities (e.g. pharmaceutical, cement installations and radiological safety. manufacturing, power plants); • Providing, or overseeing the provision of, specialist radiation • intensive agriculture (e.g. pigs, poultry); protection services. • the contained use and controlled release of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs); Guidance, Accessible Information and Education • sources of ionising radiation (e.g. x-ray and radiotherapy • Providing advice and guidance to industry and the public on equipment, industrial sources); environmental and radiological protection topics. • large petrol storage facilities; • Providing timely and easily accessible environmental • waste water discharges; information to encourage public participation in environmental • dumping at sea activities. decision-making (e.g. My Local Environment, Radon Maps). • Advising Government on matters relating to radiological safety National Environmental Enforcement and emergency response. • Conducting an annual programme of audits and inspections of • Developing a National Hazardous Waste Management Plan to EPA licensed facilities. prevent and manage hazardous waste. • Overseeing local authorities’ environmental protection responsibilities. Awareness Raising and Behavioural Change • Supervising the supply of drinking water by public water • Generating greater environmental awareness and influencing suppliers. positive behavioural change by supporting businesses, • Working with local authorities and other agencies to tackle communities and householders to become more resource environmental crime by co-ordinating a national enforcement efficient. network, targeting offenders and overseeing remediation. • Promoting radon testing in homes and workplaces and • Enforcing Regulations such as Waste Electrical and Electronic encouraging remediation where necessary. Equipment (WEEE), Restriction of Hazardous Substances (RoHS) and substances that deplete the ozone layer. Management and structure of the EPA • Prosecuting those who flout environmental law and damage the The EPA is managed by a full time Board, consisting of a Director environment. General and five Directors. The work is carried out across five Offices: Water Management • Office of Environmental Sustainability • Monitoring and reporting on the quality of rivers, lakes, • Office of Environmental Enforcement transitional and coastal waters of Ireland and groundwaters; • Office of Evidence and Assessment measuring water levels and river flows. • Office of Radiation Protection and Environmental Monitoring • National coordination and oversight of the Water Framework • Office of Communications and Corporate Services Directive. The EPA is assisted by an Advisory Committee of twelve members • Monitoring and reporting on Bathing Water Quality. who meet regularly to discuss issues of concern and provide advice to the Board. EPA RESEARCH PROGRAMME 2021–2030 ClimAtt: Tools for Climate Change Attribution of Extreme Weather Events (2016-CCRP-MS.37) EPA Research Report Prepared for the Environmental Protection Agency by University College Cork and Oxford University Authors: Paul Leahy, Lucía Hermida Gonzalez, Kieran Hickey, Gerard Kiely, Myles Allen, Parvaneh Nowbakht and Adam Pasik ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY An Ghníomhaireacht um Chaomhnú Comhshaoil PO Box 3000, Johnstown Castle, Co. Wexford, Ireland Telephone: +353 53 916 0600 Fax: +353 53 916 0699 Email: [email protected] Website: www.epa.ie © Environmental Protection Agency 2021 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report is published as part of the EPA Research Programme 2021–2030. The EPA Research Programme is a Government of Ireland initiative funded by the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications. It is administered by the Environmental Protection Agency, which has the statutory function of co-ordinating and promoting environmental research. The authors would like to acknowledge the members of the project steering committee, namely Frank McGovern (EPA), Ray McGrath (University College Dublin), Phillip O’Brien (EPA), Laura Wilcox (Reading University), Mark Adamson (Office of Public Works), Séamus Walsh (Met Éireann), Saji Varghese (Met Éireann) and Anne Mason (Research Project Manager on behalf of the EPA). DISCLAIMER Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material contained in this publication, complete accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The Environmental Protection Agency, the authors and the steering committee members do not accept any responsibility whatsoever for loss or damage occasioned, or claimed to have been occasioned, in part or in full, as a consequence of any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of a matter contained in this publication. All or part of this publication may be reproduced without further permission, provided the source is acknowledged. This report is based on research carried out/data from 2017 to 2019. More recent data may have become available since the research was completed. The EPA Research Programme addresses the need for research in Ireland to inform policymakers and other stakeholders on a range of questions in relation to environmental protection. These reports are intended as contributions to the necessary debate on the protection of the environment. EPA RESEARCH PROGRAMME 2021–2030 Published by the Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland ISBN: 978-1-80009-006-4 July 2021 Price: Free Online version ii Project Partners Paul Leahy Parvaneh Nowbakht Environmental Research Institute Environmental Research Institute University College Cork University College Cork Cork Cork Ireland Ireland Tel.: +353 (0)21 490 1931 Tel.: +353 (0)21 490 1931 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Kieran Hickey Adam Pasik Environmental Research Institute Environmental Research Institute University College Cork University College Cork Cork Cork Ireland Ireland Tel.: +353 (0)21 490 1931 Tel.: +353 (0)21 490 1931 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Lucía Hermida Gonzalez Myles Allen Environmental Research Institute Environmental Change Institute University College Cork Oxford University Centre for the Environment Cork University of Oxford Ireland Oxford Tel.: +353 (0)21 490 1931 United Kingdom Email: [email protected] Tel.: +44 (0)1865 275848 Email: [email protected] Gerard Kiely Environmental Research Institute University College Cork Cork Ireland Tel.: +353 (0)21 490 1931 Email: [email protected] iii Contents Contents Acknowledgements ii Disclaimer ii Project Partners iii List of Figures vii List of Tables ix List of Boxes x Executive Summary xi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Study Area Definition 1 1.3 Precipitation Extremes in Ireland 1 1.4 Project Objective 2 2 Probabilistic Event Attribution 3 2.1 Background 3 2.2 Method 4 2.3 Models and Datasets Used in Attribution Studies 5 2.4 The EURO-CORDEX Downscaled Model Runs 6 2.5 Attribution of Weather Extremes in Ireland 6 2.6 Observational Data in Ireland 7 2.7 Indices of Extreme Precipitation 10 3 Extreme Weather Event Inventory 13 3.1 Introduction 13 3.2 Previous Inventories and Research 13 3.3 Challenges 15 3.4 Adopted Weather Extreme Definition 16 3.5 Weather Data 16 3.6 Data on Financial Losses 16 3.7 Return Periods 16 3.8
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Health Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan 2019-2024
    Health Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan 2019-2024 Prepared under the National Adaptation Framework Prepared by the Department of Health www.gov.ie/health Health Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan 2019-2024 1 Contents Foreword 5 Executive Summary 7 Development of a Plan for Ireland’s Health Sector, 2019 – 2024 7 Six climate scenarios with profound health implications 8 Predicted climate risks and health impacts for Ireland include: 10 1. Introduction 11 Mandate and vision 12 Health context and the case for adaptation 13 Mainstreaming climate change adaptation 14 Limitations – more research, better data 15 Development of this Plan 16 2. Scene-setting: climate change, health, and Ireland 21 2.1. Health in Ireland, climate in Ireland 22 2.1.1 Health of the population 22 2.1.2 Climate in Ireland 23 2.1.3 Climate change projections for Ireland 23 2.2. Effect of climate change on human health 24 2.3. Health implications of climate change in Ireland 24 2.3.1 Health impacts of temperature changes 24 2.3.2 Health impacts of drought and flooding 29 2.3.3 Health impacts of storms 32 2.3.4 Mental health impacts 32 2.3.5 Risks to health services 32 3. Prioritisation 35 3.1. Climate Impact Screening 36 3.2. Developing Priorities 38 3.3. Climate scenarios – Priority Impacts 41 3.3.1 UV / Sun exposure 41 3.3.2 Air pollution 41 3.3.3 Windstorms 41 3.3.4 Heat / Heatwaves 42 3.3.5 High precipitation / Flooding 43 3.3.6 Extreme cold snaps 43 2 Contents 4.
    [Show full text]
  • The Impacts of Storms
    THE IMPACTS OF STORMS It is important to think more about storms, how they are formed, their potentially devastating impacts and whether you are resilient to them. Planning in advance is essential, especially if you live in areas that may be more vulnerable than others, for example, those located next to rivers or on the coast. Winter storms can bring some of the most severe and extreme weather events, including lower temperatures, gale-force winds and heavy rain, which can lead to flooding in some areas or sleet and snow if the temperature is cold enough. Storms occur at mid-latitudes where cold polar air meets warmer tropical air and the point where these two meet is known as the jet stream. Rising air from the Atlantic is removed and replaced by the strong winds of the jet stream a lot quicker than the air at lower levels and this reduction in pressure produces the strong winds of winter storms. Storms tend to form in the winter months when the temperature between the air masses is at its greatest. It is important to keep as safe and resilient as you can against the potential impact of storms. On the 5th and 6th December 2015, Storm Desmond brought strong winds of up to 81 mph and heavy rainfall, with 341.4mm of rain falling in Cumbria by 6pm on the 5th (24 hours) – a new UK record! Many people across Cumbria and Lancashire were severely affected: 5200 homes were flooded. 61,000 homes in Lancaster lost power when an electrical substation was flooded.
    [Show full text]
  • Wicklow County Council Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
    WICKLOW COUNTY COUNCIL CLIMATE ADAPTATION STRATEGY September 2019 Rev 4.0 Wicklow County Council Climate Change Adaptation Strategy WICKLOW COUNTY COUNCIL CLIMATE ADAPTATION STRATEGY DOCUMENT CONTROL SHEET Issue No. Date Description of Amendment Rev 1.0 Apr 2019 Draft – Brought to Council 29th April 2019 Rev 2.0 May 2019 Number of formatting changes and word changes to a number of actions: Actions Theme 1: 13, 14 and 15 and Theme 5: Actions 1 and 2 Rev 2.0 May 2019 Circulated to Statutory Consultees Public Display with SEA and AA Screening Reports from 7th June 2019 to 5th July Rev 2.0 June 2019 2019. Rev 3.0 August 2019 Additions and Amendments as per Chief Executive’s Report on Submissions. Rev 4.0 Sept 2019 Revision 4.0 adopted by Wicklow County Council on 2nd September 2019. Rev 4.0 1 1 WICKLOW COUNTY COUNCIL CLIMATE ADAPTATION STRATEGY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Wicklow County Council wishes to acknowledge the guidance and input from the following: The Eastern & Midlands Climate Action Regional Office (CARO), based in Kildare County Council for their technical and administrative support and training. Neighbouring local authorities for their support in the development of this document, sharing information and collaborating on the formulation of content and actions.. Climateireland.ie website for providing information on historic weather trends, current trends and projected weather patterns. Staff of Wicklow County Council who contributed to the identification of vulnerabilities at local level here in County Wicklow and identification of actions which will enable Wicklow County Council to fully incorporate Climate Adaptation as key priority in all activities and services delivered by Wicklow County Council.
    [Show full text]
  • Opzet Draaiboek STAR-FLOOD
    Strengthening and Redesigning European Flood Risk Practices Towards Appropriate and Resilient Flood Risk Governance Arrangements Analysing and evaluating flood risk governance in England – Enhancing societal resilience through comprehensive and aligned flood risk governance arrangements Alexander, M., Priest, S., Micou, A.P., Tapsell, S., Green, C., Parker, D., and Homewood, S. Date: 31 March 2016 Report Number: D3.3 Milestone number: MS3 Due date for deliverable: 30 September 2015 Actual submission date: 28 September 2015 STAR-FLOOD receives funding from the EU 7th Framework programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 308364 Document Dissemination Level PU Public Co-ordinator: Utrecht University Project Contract No: 308364 Project website: www.starflood.eu ISBN: i Cover photo left: Thames Barrier (Dries Hegger, 2013) Cover photo right: City of London (Dries Hegger, 2013) Document information Work Package 3 Consortium Body Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University Year 2016 Document type Deliverable 3.3 Date 11th September 2015 (With amendments made in February 2016) Author(s) Alexander, M., Priest, S., Micou, A., Tapsell, S., Green, C., Parker, D., and Homewood, S. Acknowledgement The work described in this publication was supported by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme through the grant to the budget of the Integrated Project STAR-FLOOD, Contract 308364. We would like to acknowledge and offer our gratitude to the flood risk professionals and academic experts who participated in this research. We also appreciate the valuable critique provided by Prof. Edmund Penning-Rowsell. Disclaimer This document reflects only the authors’ views and not those of the European Union. This work may rely on data from sources external to the STAR-FLOOD project Consortium.
    [Show full text]
  • Local Flood Risk Management Strategy
    Royal Borough of Windsor & Maidenhead Local Flood Risk Management Strategy Published in December 2014 RBWM Local Flood Risk Management Strategy December 2014 2 RBWM Local Flood Risk Management Strategy December 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS PART A: GENERAL INFORMATION .............................................................................................8 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................8 1.1 The Purpose of the Strategy ...........................................................................................8 1.2 Overview of the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead ................................................9 1.3 Types of flooding ....................................................................................................... 11 1.4 Who is this Strategy aimed at? .....................................................................................12 1.5 The period covered by the Strategy ...............................................................................12 1.6 The Objectives of the Strategy ......................................................................................12 1.7 Scrutiny and Review ...................................................................................................13 2 Legislative Context ..........................................................................................................14 2.1 The Pitt Review .........................................................................................................14
    [Show full text]
  • Inventory of CI Impact Assessment Models for Climate Hazards
    D3.3 Inventory of CI Impact Assessment Models for Climate Hazards Contractual Delivery Date: 01/2018 Actual Delivery Date: 06/2018 Type: Document Version: 1.0 Dissemination Level: Public Statement This deliverable provides an inventory of approaches to assess the structural and functional/operational damages to Critical Infrastructures as a result of climate hazards. Direct and indirect losses are addressed. Approaches to model the infrastructure interdependencies are explained and discussed. Furthermore, stratified Monte Carlo simulations are explained as the suggested way to handle uncertainty in input data. Copyright by the EU-CIRCLE consortium, 2015-2018 EU-CIRCLE is a project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 653824. Please see http://www.EU-CIRCLE.eu/ DISCLAIMER: This document contains material, which is the copyright of EU-CIRCLE consortium members and the European Commission, and may not be reproduced or copied without permission, except as mandated by the European Commission Grant Agreement no. 653824 for reviewing and dissemination purposes. The information contained in this document is provided by the copyright holders "as is" and any express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose are disclaimed. In no event shall the members of the EU-CIRCLE collaboration, including the copyright holders, or the European Commission be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, exemplary, or consequential damages (including, but not limited to, procurement of substitute goods or services; loss of use, data, or profits; or business interruption) however caused and on any theory of liability, whether in contract, strict liability, or tort (including negligence or otherwise) arising in any way out of the use of the information contained in this document, even if advised of the possibility of such damage.
    [Show full text]
  • Kielder Reservoir, Northumberland
    Rainwise Working with communities to manage rainwater Kielder Reservoir, Northumberland Kielder Water is the largest man-made lake in northern Europe and is capable of holding 200 billion litres of water, it is located on the River North Tyne in North West Northumberland. Figure 1: Location of Kielder Figure 2: Kielder Area Figure 3: Kielder Water The Kielder Water Scheme was to provide additional flood storage capacity at Kielder Reservoir. At the same time the Environment Agency completed in 1982 and was one of the (EA) were keen to pursue the idea of variable releases largest and most forward looking projects to the river and the hydropower operator at Kielder of its time. It was the first example in (Innogy) wished to review operations in order to maximum generation ahead of plans to refurbish the main turbine the UK of a regional water grid, it was in 2017. designed to meet the demands of the north east well into the future. The scheme CHALLENGES is a regional transfer system designed to Kielder reservoir has many important roles including river allow water from Kielder Reservoir to be regulation for water supply, hydropower generation and released into the Rivers Tyne, Derwent, as a tourist attraction. As such any amendments to the operation of the reservoir could not impact on Kielder’s Wear and Tees. This water is used to ability to support these activities. Operating the reservoir maintain minimum flow levels at times of at 85 percent of its capacity would make up to 30 billion low natural rainfall and allows additional litres of storage available.
    [Show full text]
  • Flooding After Storm Desmond PERC UK 2015 Flooding in Cumbria After Storm Desmond PERC UK 2015
    Flooding after Storm Desmond PERC UK 2015 Flooding in Cumbria after Storm Desmond PERC UK 2015 The storms that battered the north of England and parts of Scotland at the end of 2015 and early 2016 caused significant damage and disruption to families and businesses across tight knit rural communities and larger towns and cities. This came just two years after Storm Xaver inflicted significant damage to the east coast of England. Flooding is not a new threat to the residents of the Lake District, but the severity of the events in December 2015 certainly appears to have been regarded as surprising. While the immediate priority is always to ensure that defence measures are overwhelmed. We have also these communities and businesses are back up on their looked at the role of community flood action groups feet as quickly and effectively as possible, it is also in the response and recovery from severe flooding. important that all those involved in the response take Our main recommendations revolve around three key the opportunity to review their own procedures and themes. The first is around flood risk communication, actions. It is often the case that when our response is including the need for better communication of hazard, put to the test in a ‘real world’ scenario that we risk and what actions to take when providing early discover things that could have been done better, or warning services to communities. The second centres differently, and can make changes to ensure continuous around residual risk when the first line of flood improvement. This is true of insurers as much as it is of defences, typically the large, constructed schemes central and local government and the emergency protecting entire cities or areas, are either breached services, because events like these demand a truly or over-topped.
    [Show full text]
  • How LV= Delivered a Human Response to the Floods in Cumbria
    A case study... How LV= delivered a human response to the floods in Cumbria BROKER LVbroker.co.uk LV= Insurance Highway Insurance ABC Insurance @LV_Broker LV= Broker Contents LV= in Kendal Storm Desmond LV= attended the scene Storm Eva Case Studies Storm Frank What next? 2 A case study... And the rain came... When Storm Desmond hit on 4 December 2015, nobody anticipated another two Background of Storm Desmond storms would follow. Storm Desmond was 4–6 December the start of intense rainfall and high winds Storm Desmond brought extreme rainfall and concentrated over Cumbria in the last part storm force winds with a few rain gauges reported of 2015. Storm Desmond was quickly to have recorded in excess of 300mm in a 24 hour period. followed by Storm Eva, proving more Thursday 3 December Friday 4 December misery over the festive period before Storm Frank put an end to the wet and windy weather on 31 December. Whilst many of the areas had been affected by flooding in the past, the immediate reaction was that this event was the worst in living memory. Many areas already had some form of flood defence in place and others were in the process of improving existing defences. Unfortunately Saturday 5 December Sunday 6 December the defences were unable to cope with the record river levels and in many instances were overtopped. LV= popped-up in Kendal Kendal was the first badly hit area and within hours of the news breaking on the 7 December, we sent two senior members of our claims team 300 miles up to Kendal (1).
    [Show full text]
  • Building Flood Resilience in a Changing Climate Insights from the United States, England and Germany
    Building Flood Resilience in a Changing Climate Insights from the United States, England and Germany June 2020 Building Flood Resilience in a Changing Climate Insights from the United States, England and Germany Maryam Golnaraghi, The Geneva Association Swenja Surminski, London School of Economics Carolyn Kousky, Wharton Risk Center, University of Pennsylvania Building Flood Resilience in a Changing Climate 1 The Geneva Association The Geneva Association was created in 1973 and is the only global association of insurance companies; our members are insurance and reinsurance Chief Executive Officers (CEOs). Based on rigorous research conducted in collaboration with our members, academic institutions and multilateral organisations, our mission is to identify and investigate key trends that are likely to shape or impact the insurance industry in the future, highlighting what is at stake for the industry; develop recommendations for the industry and for policymakers; provide a platform to our members, policymakers, academics, multilateral and non-governmental organisations to discuss these trends and recommendations; reach out to global opinion leaders and influential organisations to highlight the positive contributions of insurance to better understanding risks and to building resilient and prosperous economies and societies, and thus a more sustainable world. The Geneva Association—International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics Talstrasse 70, CH-8001 Zurich Email: [email protected] | Tel: +41 44 200 49 00 | Fax: +41 44 200 49 99 Photo credits: Cover page—Matthew Orselli, Shutterstock. June 2020 Building Flood Resilience in a Changing Climate © The Geneva Association Published by The Geneva Association—International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, Zurich.
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Adaptation Strategy September 2019 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
    Comhairle Contae Mhaigh Eo MAYO COUNTY COUNCIL MAYO.IE CLIMATE READY MAYO ENGAGE | PLAN | ADAPT MAYO COUNTY COUNCIL Climate Adaptation Strategy September 2019 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Grateful acknowledgement is made to the Climate Action Regional Office - Atlantic Seaboard North Region with regard to the development of the Draft Mayo County Council Climate Adaptation Strategy. In addition, Mayo County Council would also like to express gratitude to the following sources for their assistance and contributions to draft strategy: • The Mayo County Council Climate Adaptation and Communications Team. • Climate Ireland, Dr Barry O’ Dwyer and the Team at the Centre for Marine and Renewable Energy Ireland, Cork. • The Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment. • The Regional Climate Action Steering Group and the Climate Adaptation Team Leaders from Donegal, Sligo County Council, Galway County Council and Galway City Council. CLIMATE READY MAYO: ENGAGE | PLAN | ADAPT 3 FOREWORD The consequences of our changing climate have already been This Strategy creates a framework for measures and policies that Mayo witnessed throughout County Mayo. Over the past century our County Council will undertake in terms of climate adaptation planning for the County. Prior to this Strategy Mayo County Council have climate has warmed, rainfall patterns have changed, sea levels instigated change and provided leadership on several Climate Change have risen, and more extreme weather events are occurring. programmes. Climate Action is a function under the Environment, We have seen extreme rainfall damage infrastructure, severe Climate Action and Agriculture Department of Mayo County Council. droughts degrade the environment, along with wildfires and In 2017 Mayo County Council was the first Local Authority in Ireland to landslides.
    [Show full text]
  • Defining the Hundred Year Flood
    Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 1189–1208 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Hydrology journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol Research papers Defining the hundred year flood: A Bayesian approach for using historic data to reduce uncertainty in flood frequency estimates ⇑ Dr. Brandon Parkes , David Demeritt, Professor King’s College London, Department of Geography, Strand, London WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom article info abstract Article history: This paper describes a Bayesian statistical model for estimating flood frequency by combining uncertain Received 26 April 2016 annual maximum (AMAX) data from a river gauge with estimates of flood peak discharge from various Received in revised form 5 July 2016 historic sources that predate the period of instrument records. Such historic flood records promise to Accepted 14 July 2016 expand the time series data needed for reducing the uncertainty in return period estimates for extreme Available online 19 July 2016 events, but the heterogeneity and uncertainty of historic records make them difficult to use alongside This manuscript was handled by A. Bardossy, Editor-in-Chief, with the Flood Estimation Handbook and other standard methods for generating flood frequency curves from assistance of Saman Razavi, Associate Editor gauge data. Using the flow of the River Eden in Carlisle, Cumbria, UK as a case study, this paper develops a Bayesian model for combining historic flood estimates since 1800 with gauge data since 1967 to Keywords: estimate the probability of low frequency flood events for the area taking account of uncertainty in Flood frequency analysis the discharge estimates. Results show a reduction in 95% confidence intervals of roughly 50% for annual Bayesian model exceedance probabilities of less than 0.0133 (return periods over 75 years) compared to standard flood Historical flood estimates frequency estimation methods using solely systematic data.
    [Show full text]