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The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019 THE STATE OF FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION IN THE WORLD SAFEGUARDING AGAINST ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNS This flagship publication is part of THE STATE OF THE WORLD series of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Required citation: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2019. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019. Safeguarding against economic slowdowns and downturns. Rome, FAO. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the World Food Programme (WFP) or the World Health Organization (WHO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP or WHO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material in the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP or WHO concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers. All reasonable precautions have been taken by FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO to verify the information contained in this publication. However, the published material is being distributed without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. The responsibility for the interpretation and use of the material lies with the reader. In no event shall FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO be liable for damages arising from its use. ISBN 978-92-5-131570-5 © FAO 2019 Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo). Under the terms of this licence, this work may be copied, redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes, provided that the work is appropriately cited. In any use of this work, there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization, products or services. The use of the FAO logo is not permitted. If the work is adapted, then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons licence. If a translation of this work is created, it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation: “This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation. The original English edition shall be the authoritative edition.” Any mediation relating to disputes arising under the licence shall be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) as at present in force. Third-party materials. Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party, such as tables, figures or images, are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder. The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user. Sales, rights and licensing. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through [email protected]. Requests for commercial use should be submitted via: www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request. Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to: [email protected]. COVER PHOTOGRAPH ©Shutterstock/Valeriya Anufriyeva DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO. Young woman selling fruit at a street market. ISSN 2663-8061 2019 THE STATE OF FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION IN THE WORLD SAFEGUARDING AGAINST ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNS Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2019 CONTENTS FOREWORD vii ANNEXES 121 METHODOLOGY x ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xi ANNEX 1A Statistical tables to Part 1 122 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS xiii KEY MESSAGES xiv ANNEX 1B EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xvi Methodological notes to statistical tables 148 PART 1 FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION ANNEX 2 AROUND THE WORLD IN 2019 1 Methodologies Part 1 159 1.1 Recent trends in hunger and food insecurity 3 ANNEX 3 1.2 Progress towards global nutrition targets 27 PoU change point definitions, methodology 1.3 Towards an integrated understanding of food and country lists 165 security and nutrition for health and well-being 42 1.4 Conclusions 46 ANNEX 4 Economic growth and change in PoU PART 2 between 2011 and 2017 169 SUSTAINED ESCAPES FROM FOOD INSECURITY AND MALNUTRITION IN THE FACE OF ECONOMIC ANNEX 5 SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNS 49 The main drivers of crisis-level acute 2.1 Economic slowdowns and downturns food insecurity in 2018 176 and their impact on food security and nutrition 51 2.2 Commodity dependence and its relevance ANNEX 6 Commodity dependence definitions for food security and nutrition 61 and country lists 178 2.3 Nexus between economic growth, poverty, and food security and nutrition: ANNEX 7 the role of inequality 79 Glossary 185 2.4 Policies for achieving sustainable escapes from food insecurity and malnutrition in the NOTES 191 context of economic slowdowns and downturns 102 2.5 Conclusions 118 | ii | TABLES, FIGURES AND BOXES TABLES 11 Coping strategies, their A4.2 Regression of the change availability in times of economic in PoU and economic growth 1 Prevalence of undernourishment slowdowns and downturns and between 2011 and 2017 173 (PoU) in the world, 2005–2018 8 possible negative effects 78 A4.3 Regression of the change 2 Number of undernourished 12 Multisectoral policies for in PoU between 2011 and 2017 and people in the world, 2005–2018 9 reducing poverty, and the constraints the three drivers of PoU increase 174 that must be overcome to improve 3 Prevalence of moderate or severe A4.4a Estimated coefficients of food security and nutrition 116 food insecurity, and severe food the regressions between the change in insecurity only, measured with the A1.1 Progress towards the Sustainable PoU (between 2011 and 2017) and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, Development Goals (SDGs): Prevalence three drivers of PoU – drivers regressed 2014–2018 15 of undernourishment, moderate or severe separately for each income group 175 food insecurity, selected forms of 4 Number of people experiencing A4.4b Estimated coefficients of malnutrition, exclusive breastfeeding moderate or severe food insecurity, the regressions between the change in and low birthweight 122 and severe food insecurity only, PoU (between 2011 and 2017) and the measured with the Food Insecurity A1.2 Progress towards the Sustainable three drivers of PoU – drivers regressed Experience Scale, 2014–2018 18 Development Goals (SDGs): Number together for each income group 175 of people who are affected by 5 Association between food A5.1 Countries and territories undernourishment, moderate or severe insecurity and various forms of with food crises in correspondence food insecurity and selected forms malnutrition: cross-country analysis with economic shocks, 2018 176 based on national data 44 of malnutrition; number of infants exclusively breastfed and number of A6.1 Definition of country 6 Association between food babies born with low birthweight 135 commodity-export and insecurity and overweight or commodity-import dependence 179 obesity in different age groups: A2.1 Definition of variables micro-level data analysis from and sources 160 A6.2 Countries and territories by typology of primary commodity selected countries 45 A2.2 Definition of variables dependence (1995–2017) 179 7 Association between household and sources 162 A6.3 Countries with economic food insecurity, child stunting and A2.3 Results 162 wasting, and anaemia in women of slowdowns or downturns in reproductive age: micro-level data A2.4 Malnutrition indicators correspondence to an increase analysis from selected countries 46 by age/sex class in PoU change point and/or (dependent variables) 163 affected by food crises 180 8 Economic shocks were significant A2.5 Independent variables 164 secondary and tertiary drivers of FIGURES food crises in 2018 60 A3.1 Countries with an increase 1 The number of undernourished 9 High levels of commodity-export in PoU change point corresponding people in the world has been on and -import dependence negatively to economic slowdowns or the rise since 2015, and is back to affect food security 67 downturns, years 2011–2017 166 levels seen in 2010–2011 6 10 Government spending on A4.1 Descriptive statistics of PoU 2 Undernourishment is rising social and health sectors and and economic growth between rapidly in Western Africa 10 UHC coverage in high 2011 and 2017 172 commodity-dependent countries 76 | iii | TABLES, FIGURES AND BOXES 3 Undernourishment increases 13 The numbers of undernourished 23 Consecutive years of economic sharply in countries affected by and of food insecure have been on slowdowns and downturns since conflict in sub-Saharan Africa 10 the rise in recent years, after a 2011 in many subregions 54 decade-long decline in extreme 4
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