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Nuclear Proliferation International and Regional Challenges for Pakistan and Iran

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Nuclear Proliferation International and Regional Challenges for Pakistan and Iran NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL CHALLENGES FOR PAKISTAN AND IRAN A DOCTORAL DISSERTATION By M. UMAIR RAFIQUE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF KARACHI KARACHI – PAKISTAN 2014 NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL CHALLENGES FOR PAKISTAN AND IRAN A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF KARACHI IN FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN POLITICAL SCIENCE By M. UMAIR RAFIQUE UNDER THE SUPERVISION OF PROF. DR. TANWEER KHALID DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF KARACHI KARACHI – PAKISTAN 2014 CERTIFICATE Certified that Mr. Muhammad Umair Rafique S/O Rafique Ahmed has written this thesis titled, “Nuclear Proliferation: International and Regional Challenges for Pakistan and Iran” from Department of Political Science, University of Karachi towards the fulfillment of the requirement of Ph.D. degree. To the best of my knowledge the dissertation is based on original research. Prof. Dr. Tanweer Khalid Research Supervisor Department of Political Science University of Karachi DEDICATED TO MY PARENTS MIAN RAFIQUE AHMED & TANWEER KAUSAR Thank you for your appreciation and love without your support I wouldn't have been able to acquire this milestone TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No TABLE OF CONTENT………………………………………………………... i-x LIST OF TABLES……………………………………………………………... Xi ACNOWLEDGMENT………………………………………………………… Xii ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………….......... xiii-xiv INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………… 1-8 CHPTER: 1 1. NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION: A STRATEGY FOR POWER………. 9-10 1.1. NUCLEAR WEAPONS: POTENTIAL AND IMPACT……………. 10-12 1.2. EVOLUTION OF NUCLEARIZATION……………………………. 12-13 1.3. HORIZONTAL PROLIFERATION………………………………… 13-15 1.4. VERTICAL PROLIFERATION…………………………………….. 15-16 1.5. THEORIZING OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION……………….. 16 1.5.1. LIBERAL THEORY ON NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION 16 1.5.2. STRUCTURAL REALIST APPROACHES TO NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION………………………………….. 17 1.5.3. RADICAL FEMINIST APPROACHES TO NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION………………………………… 17-18 1.5.4. CRITICAL SECURITY APPROACHES AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION………………………………… 18 1.5.5. POSTMODERNISM AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION……………………………………………… 18-19 1.5.6. CRITICAL CONSTRUCTIVISTS AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION………………………………………………… 19 1.6. MOTIVATIONS OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION…………....... 19-20 1.6.1. NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS………………. 20-21 1.6.2. STRATEGIC MOTIVATIONS……………………….. 21-22 1.6.3. POWER, STATUS AND PRESTIGE………………… 22-23 i 1.6.4. TECHNICAL IMPERATIVES……………………….. 23-24 1.6.5. REGIONAL POLITICS……………………………….. 24-25 1.7. NUCLEAR DETERRENCE………………………………………….. 25-26 1.8. NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY…………………………………………………………….. 26-29 CHAPTER: 2 2. NON PROLIFERATION: GLOBAL EFFORTS FOR A NUCLEAR FREE WORLD…………………………………………………………….. 34 2.1. EARLY EFFORTS FOR NON-PROLIFERATION………………... 35-36 2.2. ATOM FOR PEACE PROGRAM…………………………………… 36-37 2.3. INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY (IAEA)……… 37-39 2.4. GENERAL AND COMPREHENSIVE DISARMAMENT………… 40 2.5. NEW EFFORTS FOR ARMS REDUCTION……………………….. 40-41 2.5.1. PTBT (PARTIAL TEST BAN TREATY)……………………. 41 2.5.2. NPT (NON-NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION TREATY) 41-44 2.5.3. EXPORT CONTROL GROUPS: NSG AND MTCR………... 44-45 2.5.4. REGIONAL NONPROLIFERATION TREATIES OR NUCLEAR FREE ZONES………………………………………… 45-46 2.5.5. CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS…................. 46-47 2.5.6. COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY(CTBT)………… 47-49 2.6. CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURES BETWEEN SUPER 49 POWERS………………………………………………………………. 2.6.1. SALT I (STRATEGIC ARMS LIMITATION TALKS)…….. 49-50 2.6.1.1. THE INTERIM AGREEMENT………………. 50 2.6.1.2. ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE TREATY…....... 51 2.6.2. SALT II…………………………………………………………. 51-52 2.6.3. INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES TREATY (INF TREATY)……………………………………………………... 52 - 5 3 2.6.4. START I (STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TREATY) 53-54 ii 2.6.5. START II (STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TREATY) 55 2.6.6. SORT (STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE REDUCTION TREATY) 55-56 2.6.7. NEW START………………………………………………… 56-57 2.6.8. COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION PROGRAM (CTR)……………………………………………………………....... 57-58 2.6.9. INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER (ISTC) FOR RUSSIAN SCIENTISTS………………… 58-59 2.6.10. FISSILE MATERIAL PRODUCTION CUTOFF TREATY (FMCT)……………………………………………………………… 59-60 2.7. NUCLEAR TERRORISM……………………………………………. 60-64 CHAPTER: 3 3. PAKISTAN AND ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM: FROM THE PAST TO THE PRESENT……………………………………………………....... 70 3.1. STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF PAKISTAN…………………….. 70-71 3.2. PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM: THE BEGINNING……… 72 3.2.1. PHASE I: 1954-1970…………………………………………… 72-74 3.2.1.1. 1968 NPT DECISION…………………………………. 74 3.2.2. PHASE II: 1971-1998…………………………………………... 74 3.2.2.1. THE 1971'S INCIDENT OF EAST PAKISTAN (BANGLADESH)…………………………………………… 74-76 3.2.2.2. Z.A. BHUTTO’S INITIATIVE ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM……………………………………. 76-77 3.2.2.3. FINANCIAL SUPPORT FROM GULF STATES…… 77-78 3.2.2.4. INDIAN NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS OF 1974 AND PAKISTAN’S RESPONSE…………………………………. 78-79 iii 3.2.2.5. Z.A. BHUTTO AND PAKISTAN’S QUEST FOR NUCLEAR WEAPON……………………………………… 79-80 3.2.2.6. PROJECT 706 OR 726……………………………… 80-81 3.2.2.7. DR. ABDUL QADEER KHAN’S INVOLVEMENT IN PAKISTAN’S WEAPONRY PROGRAM…………….. 81-82 3.2.2.8. FORMATION OF KAHUTA RESEARCH LABORATORIES………………………………………….. 83 3.2.2.9. MILITARY’S ROLE ON WEAPONRY PROGRAM IN BHUTTO’S ERA………………………………………... 83-84 3.2.2.10. GENERAL ZIA UL HAQ’S TAKE OVER AND MILITARY’S INVOLVEMENT IN PROGRAM……....... 84-85 3.2.2.11. ZIA’S INITIAL DIFFICULTIES UNDER INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE………………………....... 85-86 3.2.2.12. PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM SHIFT IN U.S POLICY………………………………………………… 86-88 3.2.2.13. PAKISTAN’S SECURITY MEASURES TO INTERCEPT FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE AND ATTACKS………………………………………………........ 88-89 3.2.2.14. PAKISTAN’S CONDUCTING OF SECRET NUCLEAR COLD TESTS………………………………. 89-90 3.2.2.15. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS IN ZIA ERA………… 90-93 3.2.2.16. THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY (CTBT) AND PAKISTAN…………………………………. 93 3.2.2.17. NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT IN MIAN NAWAZ SHARIF’S ERA……………………………………………... 93 3.2.2.18. INDIAN NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS…………………. 94 3.2.2.19. PAKISTAN’S DECISION TO TEST NUCLEAR WEAPON……………………………………………………. 94-98 3.2.2.20. INTERNATIONAL REACTION ON NUCLEAR TEST…………………………………………………………. 98-99 iv 3.2.2.21. PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR DELIVERY VEHICLES………………………………………………….. 99-100 3.2.3. PHASE III 1999 TO PRESENT………………………………. 100 3.2.3.1. CREATION OF NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITY (NCA)……………………………………….. 100-101 3.2.3.2. EMPLOYMENT CONTROL COMMITTEE (ECC) 101-102 3.2.3.3. DEVELOPMENT CONTROL COMMITTEE (DCC) 102 3.2.3.4. STRATEGIC PLAN DIVISION (SPD)………………. 102-103 3.2.3.5. THE SERVICES' STRATEGIC FORCES COMMAND (SSFC)……………………………………....... 103 3.2.3.6. POST-TEST NUCLEAR DOCTRINE………………. 103-105 3.2.3.7. CURRENT LEVEL OF FISSILE MATERIAL AND NUCLEAR WARHEADS…………………………………... 105-106 3.2.3.8. CHINA’S COOPERATION IN PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM……………………………………. 106-108 CHAPTER: 4 4. DYNAMICS OF IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM…………………… 119 4.1. THE SHAH, IMPERIAL POWERS AND USA…………………….. 120-122 4.2. SHAHS' VISION FOR IRAN………………………………………… 122 4.3. THE BEGINNING OF THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM…………....... 123 4.3.1. AKBAR ETEMAD THE ARCHITECT OF IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM…………………………………………… 123-124 4.3.2. THE ECONOMY FACTOR AND THE NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY……………………………………………………. 124-125 4.3.3. 1968 NPT DECISION AND IRAN……………………………. 125-126 4.3.4. THE CREATION OF THE ATOMIC ENERGY ORGANIZATION OF IRAN (AEOI)…………………………….. 126-127 4.3.5. FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS IN THE DECADE OF 70s… 127-128 4.3.6. THE AMERICAN IRANIAN COLLABORATION FOR THE TRANSFORMATION OF NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY… 128-131 v 4.3.7. THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION: THE END OF SHAH'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM…………………………………………… 131-132 4.4. RESTARTING AND RECONSTRUCTING THE PROGRAM: INITIAL DIFFICULTIES……………………………………………. 132-133 4.5. THE REBIRTH OF NUCLEAR PROGRAM………………………. 133-134 4.5.1. IRAN-CHINA CO-OPERATION IN NUCLEAR PROGRAM…………………………………………………………. 135 4.5.2. SOVIET ASSISTANCE IN IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM…………………………………………………………. 135-138 4.6. THE NEW ERA OF DEVELOPMENT……………………………... 138 4.6.1. THE IRAN’S NUCLEAR CRISES: AN ERA OF TWIST AND TURNS………………………………………………………... 138-140 4.6.2. THE BIRTH OF THE EU-3 AND TEHRAN AGREEMENT 140-143 4.6.3. THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS…………………………………………………. 143-144 4.6.4. ROAD TO THE SECURITY COUNCIL…………………….. 144 4.7. ENTERING INTO NEW ERA: AHMADINEJAD COMING INTO POWER AND END OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT……………… 144-147 4.7.1. THE BIRTH OF THE P5+1 AND ROAD TO SECURITY COUNCIL…………………………………………………………... 147-148 4.7.2. THE CARROT AND STICK PACKAGE BY P5+1……… 149 4.7.3. UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION 1696………… 149-150 4.7.4. UN SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN: RESOLUTION 1737 150-151 4.7.5. SECOND SET OF SANCTIONS: RESOLUTION 1747 151-152 4.7.6. FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS AND MORE SANCTIONS 152-154 4.7.7. THE NEW AMERICAN PRESIDENT WITH A NEW STRATEGY………………………………………………………… 154-155 4.7.8. THE GENEVA NEGOTIATIONS…………………………. 155-156 4.7.9. THE TEHRAN DECLARATION………………………….. 156 4.7.10. ANOTHER SANCTION: RESOLUTION 1929…………... 156-157 4.7.11. AFTERMATH OF RESOLUTION 1929………………….. 157-158 vi 4.7.12. THE CYBER ATTACK ON IRAN………………………… 158 4.7.13. FURTHER TALKS AND OIL EMBARGO ON TEHRAN 159 4.8. THE ERA OF PROPOSALS AND NEGOTIATIONS………….. 159-162 4.9. NEW ADMINISTRATION WITH MORE MODERATE STANCE ON NUCLEAR TALKS…………………………………………….. 162-164 4.9.1. THE BREAKTHROUGH BETWEEN P5+1 AND IRAN 164-166 4.9.1.1. VERIFICATION MECHANISM…………………… 166 4.10. RESPONSE ON IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL FROM REGIONAL AND WORLD POWERS…………………………… 167-172 CHAPTER: 5 5. REGIONAL IMPLICATION OF PAKISTAN AND IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM………………………………………………… 182 5.1. IRANIAN NUCLEAR IMPLICATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST REGION…………………………………………………….............. 183 5.1.1. GCC ATTITUDE TOWARD THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR 183-184 PROGRAM………………………………………………………. 5.1.2. NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST….. 184-185 5.1.3. REGIONAL ARMS RACE FOR DETERRENCE AND DEFENSE PACTS………………………………………………. 185 5.1.3.1. ARAB MILITARY PURCHASES…………………. 185-188 5.1.3.2. PENINSULA SHIELD FORCE……………………. 189 5.1.4. U.S PRESENCE IN THE REGION AND ARAB PERCEPTION…………………………………………………… 190-191 5.1.4.1. MILITARY COOPERATION WITH WEST……... 191-192 5.1.5.
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