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Fao/Giews Food Availability and Market Assessment Mission to Haiti

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Fao/Giews Food Availability and Market Assessment Mission to Haiti S P E C I A L R E P O R T FAO/GIEWS FOOD AVAILABILITY AND MARKET ASSESSMENT MISSION TO HAITI 23 May 2016 This report has been prepared by Felix Baquedano (FAO) under the responsibility of the FAO Secretariat with information from official and other sources. Since conditions may change rapidly, please contact the undersigned for further information if required: Paul Racionzer Economist/Team Leader, EST/GIEWS Trade and Markets Division, FAO E-mail: [email protected] Please note that this Special Report is also available on the Internet as part of the FAO World Wide Web www.fao.org at the following URL address: http://www.fao.org/giews/ and http://www.wfp.org/food- security/reports/CFSAM. The Special Alerts/Reports can also be received automatically by E-mail as soon as they are published, by subscribing to the GIEWS/Alerts report ListServ. To do so, please send an E-mail to the FAO-Mail-Server at the following address: [email protected], leaving the subject blank, with the following message: subscribe GIEWSAlertsWorld-L To be deleted from the list, send the message: unsubscribe GIEWSAlertsWorld-L Please note that it is possible to subscribe to regional lists to only receive Special Reports/Alerts by region: Africa, Asia, Europe or Latin America (GIEWSAlertsAfrica-L, GIEWSAlertsAsia-L, GIEWSAlertsEurope-L and GIEWSAlertsLA-L). These lists can be subscribed to in the same way as the worldwide list. Acknowledgements The author would like to thank the authorities of the Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development of Haiti and in particular the Sub-structure for Agricultural Statistics and Informatics as well as the National Coordination of Food Security for their assistance and collaboration in the drafting of this report. The author would also like to acknowledge the contributions made by the WFP and FEWSNET to the Mission and report. S P E C I A L R E P O R T FAO/GIEWS FOOD AVAILABILITY AND MARKET ASSESSMENT MISSION TO HAITI 23 May 2016 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 2016 The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. © FAO, 2016 FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAO’s endorsement of users’ views, products or services is not implied in any way. All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request or addressed to [email protected]. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through [email protected]. Cover page photographs by: Felix Baquedano. - 5 - Table of contents Page Acronyms .................................................................................................................................. 6 Highlights .................................................................................................................................. 7 1. OVERVIEW ..................................................................................................................... 7 2. BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................. 8 3. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ............................................................................. 8 4. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ................................................................................. 13 5. FOOD AVAILABILITY ................................................................................................... 20 6. MARKET CONDITIONS AND PRICES ......................................................................... 22 7. EL NIÑO PHENOMENON AND EARLY OUTLOOK FOR MAIN 2016 SPRING CROP SEASON ..................................................................................... 27 8. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................. 29 9. REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 30 ANNEX CNSA Maize Equivalent Tonnes (MET) Conversion Factors ............................. 31 - 6 - Acronyms CCBS Country Commodity Balance Sheet CIA Central Intelligence Agency CNSA National Coordination of Food Security of the Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development DOP Dominican Peso EFSA Emergency and Food Security Assessment of the WFP ENEPA National Survey of Agricultural Production Estimates ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation FAI Food and Agricultural Imports FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FEWSNET Famine Early Warning Systems Network GDP Gross Domestic Product GIEWS Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture HTG Gourde IADB Inter-American Development Bank IMF International Monetary Fund IRI International Research Institute for Climate and Society of Columbia University MARNDR Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development MEF Ministry of Economy and Finance NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index OANDA Canadian-based foreign exchange company OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs of the United Nations SECM Single Equation Error Correction Model SSSAI Sub-structure for Agricultural Statistics and Informatics of the Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development TCI Temperature Condition Index UAL Usable Agricultural Land UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme USD United States Dollar USDA United States Department of Agriculture VHI Vegetation Health Index VCI Vegetation Condition Index WFP World Food Programme - 7 - Highlights Cereals and starchy roots production in 2015 dropped to its lowest level in 12 years, after two consecutive years of drought. Food availability in 2015/16 is being sustained by imports and a drawdown of stocks. Prices at the beginning of 2016 were at near record levels for maize and at record levels for black beans. To increase food availability and reduce the high level of food prices in the near to medium term, assistance to the agricultural sector should be broad and not limited to the most affected areas of the country. 1. OVERVIEW FAO fielded a Food Availability and Market Assessment Mission to Haiti between 14 February and 2 March 2016 to evaluate the state of food availability and the stability of markets at the national level. The Mission was composed of FAO, the National Coordination for Food Security of Haiti (CNSA) and the Sub-structure for Agricultural Statistics and Informatics (SSSAI), both agencies of the Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development of Haiti (MARNDR). The World Food Programme (WFP) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) also collaborated closely with the Mission. The main spring agricultural season (April/August), accounting for between 50 and 60 percent of the national cereal output, was affected in 2015 by severe and prolonged dry weather, related to the 2015/16 El Niño episode, for a second consecutive year. As a result 2015 outputs of cereals, pulses and starchy roots have been estimated to have declined by 28, 18 and 16 percent, respectively, from the previous year’s already drought-reduced level. Recent assessments have estimated the number of severely food insecure people due to the drought at 1.5 million. With domestic production of food crops sharply down in 2015, food availability is being sustained by higher levels of imports, particularly rice and wheat, and a significant draw down of food reserves. The weak macro-economic environment, including a strong depreciation of the Haitian gourde, high rates of inflation and higher-than- anticipated budget deficits could make it more difficult to sustain current levels of imports in 2016. Food prices remain high and at near-record levels for important staples such as maize meal and beans. However, low international prices for rice have limited significant increases in local prices for this commodity, somewhat offsetting the impact of the strong depreciation of the gourde. The high prices have adversely affected food access by households most affected by the drought, with food purchases representing close to two-thirds of household expenditure. To cope with high prices, local populations are substituting these commodities with starchy roots and tubers, reducing purchases and/or increasing purchases on credit. The impact the persisting El Niño episode could have on the next main spring agriculture season is uncertain.
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