The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 the Security Times 3
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SPECIAL EDITION OF THE GERMAN TIMES FOR THE 54TH MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE February 2018 Munich, Germany 44 pages on the new world order* FILLING THE VOID *or lack thereof IN THIS ISSUE NAVIGATING TRUMP Power boost Power outage The US president and his “Amer- ica First” foreign policy are set- The EU must win the conflicts of the future "America first" means America alone ting the world on edge. Charles Kupchan, Thierry De Montbrial and Metin Hakverdi decipher the rules of engagement for Trump BY SIGMAR GABRIEL and values – as well as the role the US BY CONSTANZE tool for building consensus and exert- world. Pages 4-5 played in Europe in two World Wars, STELZENMÜLLER ing message discipline. during the Cold War and in the 1990s Last and probably least, it lends MIDDLE EAST PIECES ince the beginning of the 21st cen- – have formed robust bonds. NATO is n past decades – a time we may yet gravitas to signals the US government The political geometry of the tury, Europe has rarely been asso- the most successful alliance in history, come to refer to wistfully as “the sends to the rest of the globe. Thus, Middle East has been redrawn in Sciated with power. Complaints and remains strong to this very day. Igood old days” – America’s national back when things were “normal,” the the last year. Turkey now seeks about Europe’s weakness are the rule, Germany is committed to doing its part security elites have tended to be some- publication of a new NSS meant that to destroy Kurdish self-govern- especially among those Europeans who in our common efforts, in the Baltics, in what blasé about the National Security analysts, journalists and diplomats the ment in Syria. Analysis by Volker too often favor depressive self-reflection Kosovo, in Afghanistan and in NATO’s Strategy (NSS). In 1986, a Congress world over would heave a sigh, pour Perthes, Can Dündar and Michael over strategic observation, Germany headquarters and command chain. Ger- alarmed by US policy failures in Viet- themselves some extra-strong coffee Martens. Pages 17-19 included. Only one hundred years ago, many has always acknowledged that nam, Iran and Grenada had decreed and inspect the text with a fine-toothed just before World War I, European the aim of combining European soft that this document should be produced comb to extract any available insights RUSSIAN EVOLUTION powers were at their imperial peak – and hard power to create real “smart at the outset of each new administra- into the superpower‘s latest strategic Putin is widening his footprint and the US was beginning its rise. Many power” has an important military com- tion to explain the principles and goals intentions. across the globe. Katja Gloger countries that are now our equal part- ponent. of the president’s grand strategy. But the Trump era is anything but charts Russia’s path to superpower- ners were, at that time, targets of Euro- How do we make Europe militarily On occasion these exercises pro- business as usual. Never has an Ameri- dom, but Dmitri Trenin wonders pean might. More than a century later, strong and efficient? How can Europe claimed a genuine strategic shift that can president so recklessly dispensed if the Russian threat is overblown. a very different Europe must still find gain a significant capability for military would make headlines worldwide. with the formalities of international Reinhard Veser and Stephanie its place in a rapidly changing world. If power projection that will enable us to This was the case in 2002, when Presi- relations, or so liberally threatened Liechtenstein tend to agree on Europe wants to remain a major pole uphold the rules and norms of the UN dent George W. Bush issued a NSS allies and adversaries alike, from call- whether Minsk is working in in the evolving world order, it needs Charter? First, we all know that nothing declaring that the US might undertake ing NATO “obsolete” to threatening Ukraine. It isn’t. Pages 25-28 power. comes from nothing; a sound and strong preemptive strikes against adversaries Europe with trade wars and North First of all, we should not underes- economy is the basis for any invest- armed with weapons of mass destruc- Korea with nuclear obliteration. CHINA PERSEVERES timate the power we have; Europe is ment. In democracies, having a grow- tion. After appalled reactions from the Of course, unilateralism, skepticism Beijing’s long-term strategy is to a powerful magnet in the eyes of the ing economy is the best way to avoid international community, this never- of “foreign entanglements” (George become the world’s number one millions of refugees and migrants who budgetary battles in which the armed implemented threat was retracted in Washington) and protectionism are power. Fu Ying and Theo Sommer choose Europe as their forces suffer. the subsequent docu- American traditions debate if the world is becoming destiny. Its soft power Therefore, sup- ment. as old as the repub- more Western or more Chinese. may frighten some lead- porting the eco- Far more often they lic itself. Presidents Kishore Mahbubani explains how ers in the EU neighbor- nomic recovery produced a stew of Clinton, Bush and and why Trump is helping the Chi- hood when their own HOW DO WE of our Euro- strategic platitudes THE TRUMP Obama oversaw nese achieve their goal. Complete people wave blue flags pean allies, rendered in boiler- NATO (and EU) Asia coverage: Pages 29-35 with twelve golden stars MAKE EUROPE especially in the plate language, a ERA IS enlargement after in public squares. Europe MILITARILY south, is not testament to the tor- ANYTHING BUT the fall of the Berlin BOT AND SOLD is sometimes a safe haven only a question tuous “interagency Wall, yet all made Lethal Autonomous Weapons for journalists, politicians STRONG AND of European process” by which BUSINESS serious efforts to Systems have a bad reputation. and citizens, when they solidarity; it the American federal retrench the US Many opponents want to ban appeal to the European EFFICIENT? is also in Ger- executive explains AS USUAL military and diplo- killer robots. Ronald Arkin Court of Human Rights. many’s security its thinking to itself. matic engagement explains why he disagrees. Kim The European Union interests. If we Sometimes a paper in Europe. Min-seok details how the South also exerts economic were to lose the was no sooner pub- One faction of Korean military is finally embrac- hard power when the European Com- support of the people of Europe for lished than it was obviated by events. Trump explainers in Washington – let's ing drones. And Stuart Russell mission, representing more than 510 the European cause, we would only Survivors of the process were prone call them the “nothing to see here” calls for a treaty before a bots race million people in a common market weaken Europe. This is why it is sen- to intimate in a strangled whisper that faction – suggests ignoring presiden- gets out of hand. Pages 40-41 with a GDP of $17 trillion, takes a sible to reach out to President Emman- they would rather be waterboarded tial language and looking instead at tough stance in negotiations on trade uel Macron to discuss his ideas on the than have to go through it all again. events, or rather everything that has agreements. Moreover, Europe mat- future of Europe. Germany’s “Iron Chancellor” Otto not happened: NATO is still stand- IMPRINT ters when the European Union, aligned At the same time we must not repeat von Bismarck famously said that two ing, they say; and what wars has he with other European partners, imposes the mistakes of the past and base things should never be exposed to started? They also point out – fairly – economic sanctions in reaction to the our political planning on the wrong public view: the making of sausage that this uniquely disruptive president is Publisher illegal annexation of Crimea or against assumptions. World history provides and the making of laws. Were he alive surrounded by a multitude of political Detlef W. Prinz the regime in North Korea. Finally, no set path towards perpetual peace, in today, he would likely include the writ- appointees, civil servants and military Executive Editor the EU and its member states are also Immanuel Kant’s sense. If Europe ever ing of national strategy papers. officers, all of whom are attempting to Theo Sommer a humanitarian power. They are the wants to be a strategic power, we must Nevertheless, even the most jaded hold the administration to standards Editors Peter H. Koepf biggest donors of humanitarian aid look beyond our horizons and plan for critics will admit that producing a NSS and processes that will make it more Lutz Lichtenberger and development assistance, and major a world we do not yet know. It is there- has its merits. On the domestic front, stable and predictable. Jonathan Lutes financial contributors when it comes to fore neither reckless nor anti-American it helps remind the executive of the Others have a different take: none of Senior Art Director mitigating climate change and funding to imagine a Europe without the United principle of separation and balance of this is a return to normalcy. Trumpism Paul M. Kern adaptation projects to support develop- States. Anyone who has ever had a powers; Congress will keep a watchful is not the latest iteration of an Ameri- Layout ing countries. nightmare knows that the thoughts we eye on the shaping of foreign and secu- can retrenchment following a period of Gordon Martin, Johanna Trapp Europe in this sense is a pole of its have are not always the thoughts we rity policy by a president and his advis- (over-)extension.