SPECIAL EDITION OF THE GERMAN TIMES FOR THE 54TH MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE

February 2018 Munich, Germany

44 pages on the new world order* FILLING THE VOID

*or lack thereof

IN THIS ISSUE

NAVIGATING TRUMP Power boost Power outage The US president and his “Amer- ica First” foreign policy are set- The EU must win the conflicts of the future "America first" means America alone ting the world on edge. Charles Kupchan, Thierry De Montbrial and Metin Hakverdi decipher the rules of engagement for Trump BY SIGMAR GABRIEL and values – as well as the role the US BY CONSTANZE tool for building consensus and exert- world. Pages 4-5 played in Europe in two World Wars, STELZENMÜLLER ing message discipline. during the Cold War and in the 1990s Last and probably least, it lends MIDDLE EAST PIECES ince the beginning of the 21st cen- – have formed robust bonds. NATO is n past decades – a time we may yet gravitas to signals the US government The political geometry of the tury, Europe has rarely been asso- the most successful alliance in history, come to refer to wistfully as “the sends to the rest of the globe. Thus, Middle East has been redrawn in Sciated with power. Complaints and remains strong to this very day. Igood old days” – America’s national back when things were “normal,” the the last year. Turkey now seeks about Europe’s weakness are the rule, Germany is committed to doing its part security elites have tended to be some- publication of a new NSS meant that to destroy Kurdish self-govern- especially among those Europeans who in our common efforts, in the Baltics, in what blasé about the National Security analysts, journalists and diplomats the ment in Syria. Analysis by Volker too often favor depressive self-reflection Kosovo, in Afghanistan and in NATO’s Strategy (NSS). In 1986, a Congress world over would heave a sigh, pour Perthes, Can Dündar and Michael over strategic observation, Germany headquarters and command chain. Ger- alarmed by US policy failures in Viet- themselves some extra-strong coffee Martens. Pages 17-19 included. Only one hundred years ago, many has always acknowledged that nam, Iran and Grenada had decreed and inspect the text with a fine-toothed just before World War I, European the aim of combining European soft that this document should be produced comb to extract any available insights RUSSIAN EVOLUTION powers were at their imperial peak – and hard power to create real “smart at the outset of each new administra- into the superpower‘s latest strategic Putin is widening his footprint and the US was beginning its rise. Many power” has an important military com- tion to explain the principles and goals intentions. across the globe. Katja Gloger countries that are now our equal part- ponent. of the president’s grand strategy. But the Trump era is anything but charts Russia’s path to superpower- ners were, at that time, targets of Euro- How do we make Europe militarily On occasion these exercises pro- business as usual. Never has an Ameri- dom, but Dmitri Trenin wonders pean might. More than a century later, strong and efficient? How can Europe claimed a genuine strategic shift that can president so recklessly dispensed if the Russian threat is overblown. a very different Europe must still find gain a significant capability for military would make headlines worldwide. with the formalities of international Reinhard Veser and Stephanie its place in a rapidly changing world. If power projection that will enable us to This was the case in 2002, when Presi- relations, or so liberally threatened Liechtenstein tend to agree on Europe wants to remain a major pole uphold the rules and norms of the UN dent George W. Bush issued a NSS allies and adversaries alike, from call- whether Minsk is working in in the evolving world order, it needs Charter? First, we all know that nothing declaring that the US might undertake ing NATO “obsolete” to threatening Ukraine. It isn’t. Pages 25-28 power. comes from nothing; a sound and strong preemptive strikes against adversaries Europe with trade wars and North First of all, we should not underes- economy is the basis for any invest- armed with weapons of mass destruc- Korea with nuclear obliteration. CHINA PERSEVERES timate the power we have; Europe is ment. In democracies, having a grow- tion. After appalled reactions from the Of course, unilateralism, skepticism Beijing’s long-term strategy is to a powerful magnet in the eyes of the ing economy is the best way to avoid international community, this never- of “foreign entanglements” (George become the world’s number one millions of refugees and migrants who budgetary battles in which the armed implemented threat was retracted in Washington) and protectionism are power. Fu Ying and Theo Sommer choose Europe as their forces suffer. the subsequent docu- American traditions debate if the world is becoming destiny. Its soft power Therefore, sup- ment. as old as the repub- more Western or more Chinese. may frighten some lead- porting the eco- Far more often they lic itself. Presidents Kishore Mahbubani explains how ers in the EU neighbor- nomic recovery produced a stew of Clinton, Bush and and why Trump is helping the Chi- hood when their own HOW DO WE of our Euro- strategic platitudes THE TRUMP Obama oversaw nese achieve their goal. Complete people wave blue flags pean allies, rendered in boiler- NATO (and EU) Asia coverage: Pages 29-35 with twelve golden stars MAKE EUROPE especially in the plate language, a ERA IS enlargement after in public squares. Europe MILITARILY south, is not testament to the tor- ANYTHING BUT the fall of the Berlin BOT AND SOLD is sometimes a safe haven only a question tuous “interagency Wall, yet all made Lethal Autonomous Weapons for journalists, politicians STRONG AND of European process” by which BUSINESS serious efforts to Systems have a bad reputation. and citizens, when they solidarity; it the American federal retrench the US Many opponents want to ban appeal to the European EFFICIENT? is also in Ger- executive explains AS USUAL military and diplo- killer robots. Ronald Arkin Court of Human Rights. many’s security its thinking to itself. matic engagement explains why he disagrees. Kim The European Union interests. If we Sometimes a paper in Europe. Min-seok details how the South also exerts economic were to lose the was no sooner pub- One faction of Korean military is finally embrac- hard power when the European Com- support of the people of Europe for lished than it was obviated by events. Trump explainers in Washington – let's ing drones. And Stuart Russell mission, representing more than 510 the European cause, we would only Survivors of the process were prone call them the “nothing to see here” calls for a treaty before a bots race million people in a common market weaken Europe. This is why it is sen- to intimate in a strangled whisper that faction – suggests ignoring presiden- gets out of hand. Pages 40-41 with a GDP of $17 trillion, takes a sible to reach out to President Emman- they would rather be waterboarded tial language and looking instead at tough stance in negotiations on trade uel Macron to discuss his ideas on the than have to go through it all again. events, or rather everything that has agreements. Moreover, Europe mat- future of Europe. Germany’s “Iron Chancellor” Otto not happened: NATO is still stand- IMPRINT ters when the European Union, aligned At the same time we must not repeat von Bismarck famously said that two ing, they say; and what wars has he with other European partners, imposes the mistakes of the past and base things should never be exposed to started? They also point out – fairly – economic sanctions in reaction to the our political planning on the wrong public view: the making of sausage that this uniquely disruptive president is Publisher illegal annexation of Crimea or against assumptions. World history provides and the making of laws. Were he alive surrounded by a multitude of political Detlef W. Prinz the regime in North Korea. Finally, no set path towards perpetual peace, in today, he would likely include the writ- appointees, civil servants and military Executive Editor the EU and its member states are also Immanuel Kant’s sense. If Europe ever ing of national strategy papers. officers, all of whom are attempting to Theo Sommer a humanitarian power. They are the wants to be a strategic power, we must Nevertheless, even the most jaded hold the administration to standards Editors Peter H. Koepf biggest donors of humanitarian aid look beyond our horizons and plan for critics will admit that producing a NSS and processes that will make it more Lutz Lichtenberger and development assistance, and major a world we do not yet know. It is there- has its merits. On the domestic front, stable and predictable. Jonathan Lutes financial contributors when it comes to fore neither reckless nor anti-American it helps remind the executive of the Others have a different take: none of Senior Art Director mitigating climate change and funding to imagine a Europe without the United principle of separation and balance of this is a return to normalcy. Trumpism Paul M. Kern adaptation projects to support develop- States. Anyone who has ever had a powers; Congress will keep a watchful is not the latest iteration of an Ameri- Layout ing countries. nightmare knows that the thoughts we eye on the shaping of foreign and secu- can retrenchment following a period of Gordon Martin, Johanna Trapp Europe in this sense is a pole of its have are not always the thoughts we rity policy by a president and his advis- (over-)extension. It is rather a massive Advertising Janine Kulbrok own in a multipolar world – with real wish to have. If a time traveler from ers, and it intends to use the strategy and radical discontinuity. Trump is the Times Media GmbH but limited power projection capabili- 2050 were to assure us today that the paper as a benchmark against which first president to question the valid- Tempelhofer Ufer 23-24 ties. Yet it is not equidistant from the US presence in Europe would endure, to measure their actions. Within the ity of an international order based on 10963 Berlin, Germany other poles. It is by far closest to the we would be able to relax. Yet now, executive, it helps the national secu- norms and cooperation, and the first www.times-media.de [email protected] United States as the source and defender in 2018, we cannot. We must strive rity adviser and his or her staff align to decry globalization as a nefarious Phone +49 30-2150-5400 of the liberal world order – even when to keep the US as close as possible, other agencies with the administration’s ideology (“the false song of globalism”) ISSN 2191-6462 the United States seems to disassociate political preferences. For the national Press deadline: Feb. 9, 2018 itself from that role. Common history Continued on page 12 security staff itself, it can be a useful Continued on page 4 2 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 3

SECURITY STRATEGY SECURITY STRATEGY

Business is business, security is not Brexit is about more than just trade; it’s also about security

will be watched very closely. The prime get a comprehensive and generous offer continuing constructive engagement and BY WOLFGANG ISCHINGER AND STEFANO STEFANINI minister is expected to make the case for from the EU to be associated with cooperation with the UK, a permanent

a close security relationship between the it, including access to the European member of the UN Security Council. The PRIVAT UK and the EU after Brexit. In response, Defense Fund and to the EU Defense remaining differences must be solved n mid-December the European the EU leaders should avoid making Industrial Development Program. lest Europe as a whole be weakened – WOLFGANG ISCHINGER Council authorized Brexit negotia- security a hostage of Brexit negotia- Confronted with sharper interna- especially at a time when the EU faces is chairman of the Munich Security Itions to move from a divorce settle- tions. Neither side stands to gain from tional competition and rising protec- unprecedented challenges in interna- Conference and Professor ment to forging a new relationship trade-offs on security. tionist winds, London and Brussels tional affairs. Europe must address a for International Security and Diplomatic Practice at the Hertie between the European Union and the Indeed, there are many good rea- must get the trade negotiations right, resurgent Russian military posture to the School of Governance. United Kingdom. The clock is tick- sons for remaining closely aligned: stay clear of “who’s winning” narra- East, instability and asymmetric threats STEFANO STEFANINI ing. Brussels and London have barely Between 25 and 30 percent of overall tives and give themselves a generous in the Mediterranean, economic compe- is a nonresident senior fellow a year left to lay the foundations for EU military capabilities fly the Union transition period to minimize the inevi- tition from China and other emerging at the Atlantic Council’s Brent their future partnership. Failure to Jack, which is too modest for the UK table bumps in the road. powers, as well as immigration pressures Scowcroft Center on International Security and a former diplomatic do so would have disastrous strategic to stand alone, and too much for the On foreign policy and defense there stemming from demography and climate adviser to Italian President Giorgio consequences for European prosperity EU to do without. In times of shifting is a strong rationale to keep a place change in Africa and elsewhere. There Napolitano. and security. geopolitics, growing multiple threats for the British at the European table. is serious concern over the resilience of There are areas, such as the Single and budget constraints, London should London will certainly welcome it. It is arms control treaties – including the Market, that do not lend themselves not delude itself and Brussels should up to the EU to think outside the box, Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) – that on the same side. The EU would benefit to cherry picking. The new relation- not be in denial. European security come up with innovative solutions and have been the backbone of European from enduring reinforcement from Brit- ship across the Channel will have to will undoubtedly continue relying on address the concerns of those who fear security and stability. In less than one ish diplomatic expertise. be consistent with the British choice to NATO, with the UK’s full participa- that a decision-making role for the UK year, the new US administration has In the current state of world disorder be in or out of it. The sphere of foreign tion, but there are and will be opera- may compromise the independence of made three major decisions that are and European insecurity, the UK and the policy and defense, including homeland tions carried out by European forces EU decision making. While diplomats clearly at odds with European main- EU need each other more now than in the and cybersecurity, will need to rely on alone, for instance in Africa or in the must come up with a mechanism for stream foreign policy: withdrawing from past. Brexit must not be allowed to create strong and continuing EU-UK coopera- Mediterranean. London is hinting at coordination between London and the the Paris climate accord, decertifying the a security cleft across the Channel. On tion irrespective of Brexit. Trade can supporting a credible European defense EU, the solution need not be a new Iranian nuclear agreement (JCPOA) and either side, Europeans will have common be transactional; security is not. This structure and capabilities, as long as institutional framework. What matters moving the US Embassy in Israel to Jeru- foreign policy interests and face identi- is why Theresa May’s speech at the they do not amount to a “vanity fair.” is to make it work; the EU has every- salem. On all of these issues, London and cal security challenges – better to work Munich Security Conference this year In exchange we believe the UK should thing to gain and nothing to lose from the EU have found themselves squarely together as closely as possible. PICTURE ALLIANCE/DIEKLEINERT.DE

Germany:

Good for PICTURE ALLIANCE/AP PHOTO How to the UN Kleist Award to

In summer 2018, the 72nd Gen- win friends ... US Senator eral Assembly of the United Nations RUMORS John S. McCain in New York will decide on Ger- many’s application for a seat on BY MICHAEL STÜRMER the Security Council in 2019 and ... and influence peaceful resolutions: China. So what is wrong with he recipient of this 2020. Germany’s application for circumventing the Ukrainian year’s Ewald von one of the non-permanent seats Strengthening NATO’s transatlantic bond he Cold War was by roadblock on the way to a safer TKleist Award is US was announced in June 2016 by and large better than its OF REAL WAR world? The Cold War was also Senator John S. McCain; the then Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Treputation, especially in an exercise in strategic patience. laudatory speech will be given Steinmeier. hindsight. It imposed, as never Russia and the US must agree on shared rules, The White House assump- by former US Vice President As a German citizen, I like the before, a kind of long nuclear tion that economic sanctions Joe Biden. Presented by the idea that the Federal Republic has peace upon the global powers set up common control centers will produce political regret has Munich Security Conference, applied for one of the seats soon to and forced minor players to con- not seemed to work. “It’s the the award honors “eminent be vacated; as the publisher of this form. French philosopher Ray- and develop a system of cyber control economy, stupid” is an Ameri- personalities with an out- newspaper, I would like to take mond Aron described what he can slogan, but not a means to standing record in contribut- this opportunity to give reasons saw in telegram-style: “Guerre force Mother Russia’s clumsy ing to international peace and why Germany would be a good improbable, paix impossible.” hand. Who will blink first? What conflict resolution.” McCain choice for membership of the Secu- But the Cold War is over, for devices; when deterrence no left to the five permanent mem- measure of disarmament ushered has happened so far is unlikely is undoubtedly such a person- rity Council. better or for worse, and a repeat longer rests on a credible strat- bers of the UN Security Council. in an era of détente. to bring peace. ality, said the MSC Chairman In the nearly 70 years since it performance does not seem near egy and new military and civil- But Germany has an existential Today they offer ever less Putin’s promise to protect Wolfgang Ischinger, adding: was founded on May 23, 1949, the on the horizon. What this means ian technologies change every interest in taming the new mili- mutual trust and strategic equi- Russians wherever they can be “He is a long-time backer of Federal Republic of Germany has for the United States will be equation; when a US president tary technologies before they fall librium without which a rea- found is more than ominous. the conference.” become Europe’s largest economy, decided to a large degree in daydreams about the use of into the hands of inexperienced sonable measure of peace is not “A question of war and peace,” McCain has been a fixture providing its now 82.5 million Washington. What it will mean nuclear weapons while discount- actors and light the world ablaze. feasible. When the microphones he keeps repeating to himself. at the MSC for four decades; inhabitants with a life of freedom, for Europe in general, and Ger- ing arms control and backchan- This time around, however, are off, seasoned diplomats from But even if a new steady state in 2017, shortly after Donald peace, unity, security as well as many in particular, is an open nel diplomacy; when the last an exclusively nuclear approach both Russia and the US can be can be achieved within the Rus- Trump’s inauguration, he material and cultural prosperity. For and in line with our international com- Allies agreed to stop the cuts, gradually NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, question. As far as the US is of the superpowers renounces will not be enough, nor will a heard enunciating the pessimistic sian space, it will not be enough delivered a memorable speech. BY JENS STOLTENBERG right, welcomes the Special Envoy for the stability of these five pillars of mitments. Our aim is the same as it has increase defense spending and move concerned, leadership has all but the liberal world order it more bipolar approach suffice, given view that since Berlin and Cuba to recover trust and confidence “What would von Kleist’s gen- the United Nations High Commissioner a successful life, the people in this always been: To prevent a conflict, not toward spending 2 percent of their gross for Refugees Angelina Jolie at NATO disappeared and been reduced to or less called into being after the Middle Kingdom’s inexo- more than fifty years ago, the on the world stage. We need eration say if they saw our world country can thank two things: their or almost seven decades, NATO to provoke one. We do not want a new domestic product on defense by 2024. headquarters in Brussels, Wednesday, Jan. a catch-all phrase – “America World War II – as these realities CSBMs: confidence- today?” he asked. “They would own effort and the goodwill of their has helped keep the peace in Cold War. Nor do we want a new arms Last year marked the third consecutive 31, 2018. first” – by Trumpists and a new have combined to create the new and security-building be alarmed by an increasing neighbors and friends. FEurope. This zone of stability has race. year of accelerating defense spending. In nationalism. normal, we find ourselves in a measures. Reinvigo- turn away from universal values We, the citizens and their govern- not only benefitted NATO members That is why we have pursued a dual- 2017, we estimate a real defense spend- transatlantic bond – which has under- The new US National Security newly perilous world. rating OSCE and its and toward old ties of blood, ment, are willing and able to repay on both sides of the Atlantic, but the track approach towards Russia, combin- ing increase of 4.3 percent in Europe and pinned the security of North America Strategy sounds reassuring. But If the time is indeed visibly THE WORLD AFTER rulebook could do the and race, and sectarianism.” this goodwill to other countries broader Euro-Atlantic community and ing strong defense and deterrence with Canada. This translates into an addi- and Europe over the past seven decades will it serve its purpose? For the “out of joint”; if cyber warfare trick. They would be alarmed by our that could benefit from our positive our neighbors as well. meaningful dialogue. Over the past two tional $46 billion in spending compared – will be further reinforced. Europeans time being, no firm ground is in has no beginning and no end, so THE COLD WAR WILL But even more impor- “flirting with authoritarianism experience as they continue work- Our Alliance has been successful years, the NATO-Russia Council has to the past three years. are grateful that the United States has sight, not for NATO, not for that terms like “offensive” and tant is the future of and romanticizing it as our ing to erect those five pillars and because we have continued to adapt met six times. These discussions are not We are moving in the right direction, significantly increased its presence in the EU and, by implication, not “defensive” lose their meaning SURVIVE TOGETHER missile defense. When moral equivalent.” Most of all to enable their citizens to live suc- to the ever-evolving security challenges always easy, but it is precisely because but we still have much more work to do. Europe, with more equipment, more for the Federal Republic of Ger- and are replaced by a menacing President George W. they would be concerned “that cessful lives. we face. Since 2014, the security land- they are difficult that we need to have This February, Allies will report on exercises and more troops. The United many. “The time is out of joint” factor of strategic ambiguity – in Bush cancelled US par- many of our peoples, including scape in Europe has changed dramati- them. I believe it is critically important to their specific defense investment plans States has more than 60,000 service – Hamlet, Prince of Denmark, short, if the world refuses pre- OR PERISH SEPERATELY ticipation in the ABM in my own country, are giving cally, from Russia’s illegal annexation keep channels of communication open, covering three main areas: cash, capa- members in Europe. And Europe relies is often quoted these days, even dictability while the strangely system, he put paid to up on the West,” because they of Crimea to the turmoil and violence to increase transparency and to prevent bilities and contributions. These national on the United States for its ballistic mis- in the most unlikely places. If familiar logic of MAD becomes a well-balanced regime consider it a “bad deal.” “I across North Africa and the Middle East. misunderstandings and miscalculations blueprints will spell out how Allies plan sile defense. taken seriously, this means that imponderable, what is there to rable rise. As they did after the world has never been so close to that had proved its worth. It is know there is profound concern Terrorism continues to pose a serious from spiraling out of control. to meet their commitment to spend 2 European Allies and Canada have been nothing less than a new security do? Deny reality and close your Berlin and Cuba crises of the war – real war – as it is today. essential – and in the interest of across Europe and the world threat to the safety and security of our As we continue our adaptation to a percent of GDP on defense; how they stepping up. We are moving in the right architecture is in order. In the eyes or panic and prepare for early 1960s, the powers must The foremost challenge is to both sides – to once again agree that America is laying down the citizens. This is true even though most more dangerous security environment, are investing in key military capabilities; direction. I expect all Allies to continue face of an unreconciled Russia, surrender? We are living in ever once again discover their ulti- find a way out of the confron- on shared rules, set up common mantle of global leadership,” of the territory controlled by the Islamic our summit in Brussels this July will be and how they are contributing to NATO this forward momentum. Doing so will NATO must be redesigned with more interesting times, where mate dependence on each other’s tation over Crimea and Eastern control centers and develop a he said. “Make no mistake, my State has been liberated. We know that an important milestone. NATO leaders missions and operations. bolster our transatlantic bond even more a much more coherent European everything depends on our abil- reasonability as well as their vital Ukraine. All that has happened system of cyber control. Cold friends: These are dangerous the fight against terrorism in not over. will make decisions about the next steps Having adequate resources devoted by showing American leaders and tax- contribution, and Europe rein- ity to reconstruct trust and pre- interest in finding a formula to since early 2014 – the annexa- War management of the nuclear times, but you should not count Detlef Prinz, Publisher We also know that cyber warfare for our Alliance in five interrelated areas: to strengthening our defense and secu- payers that Europeans are doing their vented accordingly, Brexit or dictability and to put a new cor- ensure long-term survival. tion of the strategic peninsula, standoff through limitation and America out, and we should not presents a major challenge, potentially • Further strengthening our deterrence rity will enable the Alliance to do even fair share. no Brexit, Trump or no Trump. relation of forces, unstable as it Once again, this will require the hybrid warfare, half-hearted verification is not an unfeasible count each other out.” Freedom: All is nothing without enabling adversaries to steal our infor- and defense; more to counter terrorism and protect As NATO Allies prepare for our Brus- The mantle of leadership is there may be, into treaty language and cultivation of strategic dialogue sanctions by both sides and solution for dealing with new it. Peace: All is in doubt without it. mation, disrupt our democracies and • Stepping up efforts to project stability the safety of our people. We will be able sels Summit in July, and as we continue to to be seized – but there are few verification practice. The world and, unavoidably, the abandon- US threats to supply defensive and largely untested technologies. Unity: There is no peaceful coex- attack the infrastructure critical for our in our neighborhood, including the fight to do even more to help our neighbors adapt to changing security challenges, we takers willing and able to act after the Cold War will survive ment of a number of precondi- weaponry to the front – has However, the Cold War expe- istence without it. Security: There societies, including banking systems, against terrorism; build more resilient institutions and fight can draw strength and inspiration from while the world is in such tur- together or perish separately. tions. If the big nuclear powers not reversed Ukraine’s territorial rience is a stark reminder that is no peace without it. Prosperity: health systems, power grids and air • Making the partnership between corruption. We will be able to do even knowing that we have overcome stern moil. The Federal Republic of It is time for an agonizing reap- are not on speaking terms with losses while it has cost Russia an exclusively military-indus- There is no dignity without it. But traffic control. NATO and the EU even stronger; more to deter aggression and preserve the challenges throughout our history. After Germany? A reluctant leader at praisal of NATO and the idea of one another, confidence- and space for political maneuvering, trial approach will not suffice how does it all work? Tackle each Allies have responded to these new • Continuing to modernize our Alli- peace. We will be able to do even more all, NATO helped to end the Cold War best, a wholly ineffective one at international order that it rep- security-building measures of all economic comfort and West- to revive trust and reliability. goal separately, and then all of them and emerging threats with strength and ance, including plans to update our to strengthen our partnership with the without firing a shot. That demonstrates worst. resents, including its limitations kinds will have no chance. facilitated modernization. The What is required is Russian Avid reader of The Security Times: as a whole? In facing this conun- speed. Over the past four years, NATO military command structure; and European Union. the value of a strong deterrence and and its achievements. And it is To a certain degree, the situ- Kremlin can ill afford this kind self-restraint, a broad-based John McCain drum, Germany can apply and share has implemented the biggest increase in • Ensuring fairer burden sharing across NATO and the EU are natural partners, defense. I am confident that a cohesive simultaneously time for a new ation reminds observers of of posturing between half-war Western Ostpolitik, a thorough its nearly 70 years of knowledge and our collective defense capabilities in a the Alliance. with more than 90 percent of EU citizens transatlantic community, united by our MICHAEL STÜRMER Russia policy, one that avoids the confrontation between the and half-peace. The longer criti- understanding of the relevant The award’s namesake, experience. generation. We have transformed our A critical factor in addressing all of living in a NATO country. Over the past shared values of democracy, individual is an historian and the somewhat dated concept of superpowers, a half a century cal oil prices remain where they history and geopolitics as well Ewald von Kleist (1922–2013), journalist. He has been Our country’s membership of the ability to respond to a crisis, whether these challenges is our commitment 18 months, NATO and the EU have made liberty and the rule of law, will continue chief correspondent a distinctively German Ostpoli- ago. President John F. Ken- have been for quite some time, as an appreciation of the new a co-conspirator in the July 20, United Nations Security Council it is on land, at sea, in the air or from to spend more and better on defense. unprecedented progress on a wide range to safeguard our nearly one billion citi- for the German daily tik. As Henry Kissinger tends to nedy demanded the “agoniz- the more Moscow stands to lose. technologies and their disrup- 1944, plot to kill Hitler, was would be a smart choice. It is pre- cyberspace. Our forces have increased Increasing defense-related resources and of cooperative measures, including cyber, zens in Europe and North America for newspaper Die Welt since remind us, the demonization of ing reappraisal” of America’s Given the rise in uncertainty, tive potential. In other words, founder of the MSC, held for 1998. cisely in unsettled times like these – their ability to move quickly where they capabilities will enable our Alliance to exercises, terrorism and military mobil- many decades to come. the man in the Kremlin does not nuclear posture, including the question remains: Is it sensi- we need a combination of the first time in 1963. Previous and certainly in the next two years are needed. And we have deployed mul- continue to adapt as the world changes ity. More defense-related resources will suffice as a long-term answer to its long-established strategic ble to turn the Crimea Question statecraft and bold diplomacy. recipients of the prize, include to come – that Germany would be tinational troops and equipment in the in the years ahead. help us make even more progress. When the US refuses to carry the dangers of our era. wisdom. Through this radical, into the shibboleth of East-West Biding our time to see what Henry Kissinger, Helmut perfectly suited to the UN Security east of our Alliance to deter aggression. This has been one of my top priori- With European Allies and Canada JENS STOLTENBERG the burden of the world, like In this effort, Germany is not unorthodox approach, Kennedy relations? Who stands to win comes next is the worst of all Schmidt and Valéry Giscard Council. All of the steps we have taken have ties since becoming secretary general in moving toward spending 2 percent of is secretary general of NATO. Atlas in Greek mythology, leav- the lonely but inevitable media- prepared the way for strategic in the end? Not Russia, not the options: a leap into the dark d’Estaing. been strictly defensive, proportionate 2014. At our Wales Summit that year, GDP on defense, our all-important ing old friends to their own tor and moderator – this is better arms control. Arms control and a US, not the West as a whole, but with open eyes. 4 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 5

SECURITY STRATEGY SECURITY STRATEGY American primacy

Continued from page 1 BY THIERRY DE MONTBRIAL Power outage here are two main reasons the United States will maintain its rather than an economic and Tprimacy on the world stage. political fact. Furthermore, his The first is that, in a world of weak or more mainstream advisers have broken identities, theirs remains strong, not managed to “normalize” the despite racial tensions and the growth administration; at best, they have of social inequality. The US is a land of achieved less bad outcomes, such immigrants, who swept the plate clean – as kicking the responsibility of almost – of its indigenous populations. reviewing the Iran nuclear deal From the outset, Americans have been over to Congress rather than just bound together by a sacred text, the US tearing it up. Constitution, which has survived more Under these circumstances, the than two centuries of adventures and publication of the Trump admin- crises. istration’s first National Security The most recent crisis is Trump’s elec- Strategy in late December of toral college victory following a cam- 2017 was met with significantly paign marked by a populism that broadly more than the customary tepid rejected all traditional political elites. specialist interest. But the docu- But the new president also represents ment does not resolve the tension the American Dream. His slogan “Make between the normalizers and the America Great Again” and his desire radicals – indeed, it enshrines it. to serve the national interest according On the one hand, the NSS to right-wing gospel are not wholly out makes dozens of references to of tune with much of the US populace, partners and allies. It also makes despite the anger and disgust of a major- a point of restating the presi- ity of voters. dent’s late and reluctant re-com- The political and media elites, and mitment to the mutual defense much of the population as a whole, have clause in Article 5 of the NATO RULES OF maintained an unshakeable faith in the Treaty. On the other hand, it country’s institutions. Any president that emphatically reinforces the dic- fails to respect them would be voted out tate delivered in a now-notorious of office. op-ed written in May by National That issue has many ramifications. For Security Advisor H.R. McMaster example, regardless of the 45th presi- and Gary Cohn, president of the ENGAGEMENT dent’s intent to stop Mexicans from ille- National Economic Council: the gally crossing the border, the US will fundamental paradigm of Ameri- remain a land of immigration, yet one can power in the age of Trump comprising a rigorous framework pre- is one of zero-sum competition mised on the immigrants’ commitment rather than cooperation. And the FOR TRUMP to obey American law as it flows from rationale made by the NSS for the Constitution. US support of its allies in Europe This is something altogether different and elsewhere is self-interested from, for example, French-style ideologi- trans-Atlantic stronger tiesl forging us from prevent cannot Trump President in the narrowest possible terms: cal liberalism, which prioritizes uncondi- America’s “allies and partners WORLD tional “diversity.” The Constitution’s role magnify US power and extend as the cornerstone of American identity US influence.” cannot be overemphasized. Only if an The NSS also insists, rather active minority were to one day transgress remarkably, that the institutions FOTOLIA it, would there be reason to embrace seri- of domestic democracy must be ous concern for the country’s identity and made resilient to political inter- future. That day has not yet come. ference from abroad. This new Keeping Washington tethered to the international community during the president’s The second reason for the primacy of emphasis on challenges to US the United States is its effective “grand dominance by other great powers tenure will make it easier to repair the wreckage he leaves behind strategy” of means based on a simple idea: – specifically, Russia and China – in all circumstances, the US armed forces was amplified shortly after pub- must be larger than any imaginable for- lication of the NSS by the new eign coalition, regardless of any current

National Defense Strategy and populist nationalists; he has already lost It is difficult to know whether Trump’s change and trade. But in the meantime, constellation of allies and adversaries. BRIDGE! BUILD THAT its motto of “compete, deter, and BY CHARLES A. KUPCHAN much of the rest of the country. stop-and-go style is a sign of genetic the rest of the world is right to stand by The arms industry and, more generally, IMAGO/IKON IMAGES win.” Written at the Pentagon Trump has gravitated to the far right inconstancy or part of a shrewd nego- the Paris climate agreement, even though the high-tech activities it encompasses are under the aegis of Secretary of ne down, three to go. And judg- by inclination as much as by necessity. tiating strategy. But it does mean that Trump has renounced it. The same goes top priority. Defense Jim Mattis, this docu- ing by Trump’s first year in Even as Steve Bannon, Sebastian Gorka the door is open to negotiation, and for the Trans-Pacific Partnership; its And there’s more. Considerably well ment is notable for its embrace Ooffice, the next three should be and other fervent ideologues have been concerned parties should walk through remaining members are doing the right protected by its geography, the US has of allies and partners, which it long and painful. As the US backs away banished from the White House, Trump’s that door. In the end, Trump may or thing by proceeding with a trade deal always aimed for energy independence BY METIN HAKVERDI tion. Today, these “losers of modern- This involves shared liberal democratic focus. How can we achieve a fair tax describes as “crucial” to Ameri- from is traditional role as team cap- racially tinged brand of nationalism has may not uphold the Iran deal, allow despite Trump’s withdrawal from the and increasingly overt dominance in terms ization” are exerting their influence on values, equality before the law and an and trade policy? What should be the can strategy. Given the increas- tain, its “America First” foreign policy continued, if not deepened. His equivoca- Dreamers to stay in the US, preserve the pact. If Trump seeks to back away from of information control. Technology has the future of the Western world order. open, tolerant society. In fact, in order nature of internet regulation? In order ingly aggressive global assertive- is setting the world on edge. Trump has tion over neo-Nazi protesters in Char- health insurance of Americans in need or the World Trade Organization, it will be allowed the US to achieve both goals. The As far as the world economy That being said, we cannot forget that to be a part of this community, our to answer these and other questions, ness of both Russia and China, already pulled out of the Trans-Pacific lottesville, his insults toward Hispanic return to the Paris Agreement. Nonethe- up to other members to defend a rules- only possible challenger in the foresee- is concerned, it is interlinked,” this development is not entirely new; countries need not even share interests it is imperative that we engage in an this re-focusing of US strategy Partnership and the Paris Climate Agree- immigrants, his decision to send back less, it is certainly worth trying to bring based trading order. able future is China, which is striving to “deadpanned the famous and it’s not just taking place in the US. – which, indeed, they often do not. intensive trans-Atlantic dialogue. makes sense, and Europeans can ment. Next on his chopping block may Haitians, Salvadorans and others who him around. To walk away from Trump While engaging Trump, America’s catch up. German satirist Kurt Tucholsky in Has the trans-Atlantic relationship First of all, it would suffice to have I am optimistic that we will suc- and should engage with it. well be the Iran nuclear deal and US came to the United States to escape con- is to encourage his worst instincts. partners, and Europe in particular, must The acronym GAFA provides an apt the early 1930s. Although uttered been shattered by the efforts of one open and fair elections. Indeed, for ceed in this endeavor. On my trav- If only the commander in chief participation in NAFTA and the World flict and natural disaster, his disparaging Second, engaging Trump does not prevent him from dismantling the lib- summation of the situation: search engines in the Weimar Republic, the remark person? Certainly not. At this point, all of us who doubt the strength of els throughout the US, which have agreed. President Trump has Trade Organization. comments about Africa – this is the real mean bending to his wishes; it means eral norms and rules-based institutions (Google), mobility (Apple), social media applies today as much as ever. Indeed, our approach should be to take advan- democracy under Trump, we need only often taken me deep into rural areas, I made it clear – in his speeches America’s deliberate undermining of the Donald Trump, not a political concoction attempting to bring him around to sensi- that have long anchored the West. (Facebook) and e-commerce (Amazon), while some observers see President tage of Trump’s political egoism, his look at the latest elections for governor have experienced an American society on the launch of the NSS, his rules-based international order it worked of his handlers. ble positions, and standing one’s ground Europe should make sure that the next not to mention Microsoft. The singular Donald Trump’s words at this year’s contempt for national and interna- in New Jersey and Virginia as well as steeped in the tradition of Woodrow Davos speech and his State of so hard to establish after World War II Confronted with this sobering reality, when that effort fails. On the Iran US president does not assume office in combination of an unparalleled entrepre- World Economic Forum in Davos – tional institutions, his rejection of the Senate special election in Alabama. Wilson; that is, not only do people the Union address – that he does has left America’s partners understand- how should the international community nuclear deal, America’s partners must a Western world that has been reduced neurial culture with the active support of “America first does not mean America multilaterism and his utter disdain The results show that the liberal tradi- want a better America, they also want not share the strategic frame- ably vexed, and wondering when it is time handle the remainder of Trump’s tumultu- staunchly defend the pact, come what to rubble. the government has enabled the US, and alone” – as a gesture of conciliation, for the idea of a united Europe as an tion not only alive, but vibrant – and a better world. At its core, the commu- work advocated by his advisors. to give up on Trump. But even if justified, ous presidency? may; it is the only game in town. How- Third, America’s friends must prevent in particular California, to become the this would be an incorrect reading. opportunity to revitalize and redefine that we would behoove us to put aside nity of values in the West has always Trump continues to argue for their approach is ill-advised. popular opposition to Trump from trans- undisputed champion of big data, the American economic policy will be part the trans-Atlantic relationship. Indeed, our typical German pessimism in this been shaped by an image of man as a cooperation with Putin’s Russia, Instead of turning their backs on Trump forming into anti-American sentiment. internet and innovation. of a new global public policy that has it is up to us to do our homework case. The confident and professional bearer of freedom and dignity. and sees China chiefly as a trade in anger and frustration, friends of the US Even if anger toward Trump may be No country, not even China, can hope a tangible impact on Germany as well. now so we can enjoy the fruits of our media so despised by Trump is serving Anyone who travels through the adversary; the top three threats should engage the president with hopes of TO WALK AWAY understandable, and even if politicians to overtake it anytime soon. The US has After Davos, there can be no doubt labor while Trump is still president its purpose by fulfilling its journalistic industrial wastelands of the Ohio he obsesses over are immigrants, curbing his destructive instincts. Trump are tempted to cater to it, doing so risks the whole world under surveillance and, about this. and, more importantly, when he is no mandate. In other words, there will be Valley and then visits Germany’s Ruhr terrorists and North Korea. He will do more damage if he feels isolated, FROM TRUMP IS TO setting democratic societies against the militarily, can strike any target on the And yet, as unpleasant and pro- longer in office. a time after Trump – and we should be Valley – both of which have been remains disdainful of the notion rejected and cut loose, while holding US. If leaders around the world are globe while bearing next to no risk – tectionist as Trump’s “America first” The US and Germany share a prepared for it. hit hard by the structural changes of that has underpinned US strategy him close provides at least some leverage to remain committed to working with except in the extreme event of war with slogan may sound, it is nothing we common horizon of experience that What can we do in the meantime recent decades – will immediately rec- since World War II: American over his behavior and may impress upon ENCOURAGE HIS WORST Trump whenever possible – as well as other nuclear powers. haven’t heard before. While his term – began – however inauspiciously – to revitalize and redefine the trans- ognize that liberal and Western democ- stewardship of a liberal interna- him that partnership has its advantages. reaching out to the US bureaucracy, America dominates the digital world, or terms – in office will be sure to drag during World War II. With this in Atlantic relationship? While Trump is racies will have to work together to tional order is in the American Moreover, the Trump presidency will not INSTINCTS Congress, and state and local officials, which is still embryonic but growing at a on, his administration will not usher in mind, it is important to note that one in office, it is urgent and necessary to provide political solutions to address interest. last forever. Trying to keep Washington all of which may be better partners than brisk pace. Its dominance in this realm is the “demise of the West.” Although reason for today’s rising alienation identify and reach out to the president’s the anger and hopelessness felt by Even more importantly, tethered to the international community the White House – they must ensure that such that it can afford to make mistakes Trump is indeed fostering a sense of is a generational shift in the political antagonists, especially those working those referred to in German as Ratio- Trump appears to believe that during his tenure will make it easier to First, America’s partners should con- ever, Europeans should engage Wash- their own electorates have not come to that the rest of the world cannot. While it alienation among trans-Atlantic part- sphere, one that has nothing to do in the complicated US system of checks nalisierungsverlierer, or “rationaliza- the US should to be able to use repair the wreckage he leaves behind. tinue to try to connect with Trump, ington on the deal’s sunset provisions write off the US. is not immune to cyberattacks, unpleasant ners, he is far from legitimizing the with the current US administration. and balances. These include elected tion losers.” This is where domestic nuclear weapons, would win a Learning to live with the Trump presi- seeking to exercise whatever influence and how best to counter Iran’s missile Otherwise, any hope of sustaining revelations from Wikileaks, disinforma- reasons for doing so. Over the past several years, a number members of Congress, scientists, aca- and foreign policy intersect; indeed, trade war against China and dency means accepting the harsh reality they may have over his behavior. Trump program and its destabilizing regional a sense of solidarity and community tion campaigns (whether or not they can The debate launched by the recent of political figures whose yearning for demics, local politicians and all those without the anger and hopelessness could emerge victorious from that what you see is what you get. Indeed, craves respect and acceptance; shunning behavior. Exploring side agreements or among the Atlantic democracies will be categorized as post-truth) or other “In Spite of It All, America” manifesto the West had been fed by the direct who see multilateralism as self-evident felt by former coalminers in in the Rust a preventive “bloody nose” his presidency is likely to get worse, not and isolating him will only make matters follow-on arrangements for addressing prove illusory. Otherwise, the US presi- attempts at destabilization, the US is examining the future of the trans- experience of WWII and the post-war and desirable. For example, in the Belt, Trump’s electoral success would strike against North Korea. better, in the months ahead. The adults worse. Moreover, engagement indeed has these issues may succeed in convincing dent following Trump may preside currently better prepared to overcome Atlantic relationship is on the right years have retired from politics. As realm of climate protection, California have been inconceivable – and there Should any of these come to in the room – John Kelley, Rex Til- the potential to yield concrete payoffs. Trump not to scuttle the deal. A good over a country that has turned sharply such setbacks than any other country in path, but it is too monothematic in more and more eyewitnesses of that is currently showing that it is possible would have been no resulting shift in pass, the world would become lerson, H.R. McMaster, James Mattis Even when Trump appears ready to start faith effort to address Trump’s concerns inward and lost its internationalist the world. parts. Although my intention is by no era – those with vivid recollections of for reasonable environmental policies policy alliances in the West. a different place. But even if – are unable to tame Trump, and some dismantling policies he does not like, he – rather than dismissing them – may be calling. And yet, the United States is in no posi- means to question or deny the impor- the liberation of Germany – fade into to succeed even without adherence to Politicians of my generation are they are avoided, the presi- of them may well jump ship in the near tends to offer an escape hatch. just enough to keep him on board. It is The United States, long the anchor of tion to govern the world. Firstly, this tance of foreign and security policy, the background, the more difficult it the Paris Climate Agreement. now obliged to use the coming years dent’s inability or unwilling- future, eliminating whatever moderat- Rather than simply dismantling the Iran worth a try. republican ideals and multilateralism, is would not be compatible with its ideology, an approach that reduces the debate becomes for the younger generation to In fact, there are plenty of areas to establish reliable and sustainable ness to tone down his rhetoric, ing influence they may exercise. Trump deal, he handed it over to Congress to In similar fashion, the international backing away from both under Trump’s and, even if it were, the country has fre- to this topic alone gets me thinking. bridge this emotional gap. in which we can work now to refine contacts as well as to address the key his overt disagreements with is also likely to ramp up his hard-edged address his concerns. He announced the community should keep working on leadership. This turn in US politics is quently changed course throughout its his- After all, this approach neglects the This is why we need new narratives our shared values. For example, it challenges of our time – both in and his advisors or his contempt populism as the mid-term elections draw end of the program allowing Dreamers Trump regarding issues like climate part of a broader surge in illiberalism tory. Protecting its territory and national fact that globalization, automation that can revitalize our trans-Atlantic is urgent that we explore the impact outside of the political sphere. The for allies will lead America’s near. With the Democrats poised to do (residents who entered or remained in and populist nationalism playing out in identity; furthering its economic interests and digitization have long since caused relationship. These stories can no of digitization on the economy and self-absorption of Trump’s presidency friends to hedge their bets. As well in November, Trump will seek to the country illegally as minors) to stay many quarters of the globe. from a position of strength; making and domestic and foreign policy to move longer revolve around military lib- the workplace in both our countries. provides us with a living reminder that for America’s adversaries, they rally his base by doubling down on his in the US, but then opened a dialogue CHARLES A. KUPCHAN To help ensure that we are witnessing unmaking alliances accordingly; reserving closer together while blurring the lines eration; instead, they must focus on Our response to the challenges of the we must explore, nurture and develop will feel encouraged to fill the nationalist and populist agenda. with Democrats about preserving it. He is professor of International only a temporary setback – not a perma- the sovereign right to strike abroad with- distinguishing one policy field from what makes liberal democracies such fourth industrial revolution will have our shared values on both sides of the vacuum the superpower leaves Having alienated the more centrist declared he was rescinding health care Affairs at Georgetown nent reversal – in the fortunes of liberal out fearing a counterstrike; and fostering the other. as the US and Germany so successful. to reflect our liberal tradition and thus Atlantic time and again. After all, the behind. voters who helped him win the presi- subsidies needed to fund Obamacare, but University and Senior Fellow politics, America’s partners should keep the spread of its values to boost its soft Unlike any president before him, be differ greatly from the solutions more we know about each other, the dency, Trump is retreating to his faithful soon thereafter entertained a bipartisan at the Council on Foreign reaching out to Trump and resist the power are the implicit, unchanging foun- Trump has been able to convince offered by authoritarian regimes such less Trump will be able to spread his Relations. He served on the METIN HAKVERDI (SPD) base, which at least for now has com- proposal to salvage the funding. Even US National Security Council temptation to distance themselves from dations of its foreign policy. Not only is people who were not profiting from our as Russia and China. But how exactly (mis-)interpretation of the situation. CONSTANZE is a member of the German- mandeered the Republican Party. The though Trump has announced his inten- from 2014 to 2017. This article the US. Engaging Trump will limit the it less volatile in the long term than it may new world order that he understood can this work in a globalized market? We must never forget that the trans- STELZENMÜLLER American Parliamentary Republican establishment is running for tion to withdraw from the Paris climate draws on an essay originally damage he can do, and make it more seem to be in the short or medium term, their woes. In fact, these were the very In our era of growing populism Atlantic relationship does not belong is the inaugural Robert Bosch Group in the Bundestag. published in Süddeutsche Senior Fellow at the Brookings cover in the face of a mobilized and angry agreement, the US cannot formally exit likely that the Trump era represents a it also always reflects a unique, pragmatic people who put him in office. Indeed, He is also a member of the within liberal democracies, the “future to the president in Washington; it Institution. Zeitung and Foreign Policy. base. Whether he likes it or not, Trump is the accord until 2020, leaving room to dark detour for Americans – and not the combination where interests and values the 2016 election has been referred to Atlantik-Brücke. of work” is perhaps the most impor- belongs to the people who fill it with beholden to an ascendant insurgency of maneuver. new normal. dovetail. as the “can you hear me now?” elec- tant trans-Atlantic theme on which to life. 6 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 7

SECURITY STRATEGY SECURITY STRATEGY

Defense first PICTURE ALLIANCE/AA THE WHOLE IS Time for a real European security initiative

BY MARK LEONARD questioning its commitment to before making reforms to meet NATO? the Maastricht convergence cri- Most people in 2007 would teria. It is clear that the adopted LESS THAN THE his is the hour of Europe have had to suspend their disbe- model does not build capabilities. – a unique opportunity to lief about any of these fantastic But PESCO is equally unlikely Tunite a divided continent developments. Upon doing so, to build unity. The development by showing that unity is the first they might have predicted that of real capabilities could have line of defense in a dangerous European countries would be rebuilt solidarity in a union world. But thus far there is a trying intently to tackle their vul- divided between north, south, SUM OF continent-sized gulf between the nerabilities and launch a major east and west by showing how European government’s rhetoric new initiative to build strategic Europe can make a difference on global disorder and the unam- autonomy. And that is actu- on the matters that most concern bitious, technocratic initiatives it ally what happened – at least in its citizens, from Russian aggres- has launched. There is still much speeches. When the horror sce- sion and uncontrolled borders time remaining to close it. narios unfolded, every one from to terrorism and cyber attacks. PESCO aims to improve the European Defense Policy. German Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President A thought experiment: Imag- Jean-Claude Juncker and Fed- But the “fake inclusivity” of Emmanuel Macron, various officials and the PESCO commanders met in Brussels on Dec. 14, 2017. ITS PARTS ine it was still 2007, and you erica Mogherini to Emmanuel PESCO means that these issues were asked to identify the most Macron and Angela Merkel have will be addressed by small-scale We have known for some time The second component should pean member states who train extreme scenario that would lead tried to awaken the “Sleeping technical projects rather than by that the EU could achieve more be the development of a flex- together and use the same equip- Europeans to take seriously the Beauty of European Defense.” a political initiative that could capabilities for the same price by ible European security force. ment. This force should eventu- idea of providing for their own Unfortunately, the rhetoric does capture imaginations. More sig- pooling and sharing its equip- Macron’s proposal for a Euro- ally comprise up to 100,000 sol- security. You might have sug- not yet match reality. nificantly, putting unity above ment. The diversity of EU weap- pean Intervention Initiative is a diers and include its own separate gested that they would wake There are two dominant para- effectiveness forces countries ons is six times higher than that promising start, but it is likely capability. States wanting to join up if, say, Russia invaded two digms for pondering European that are serious about European of the US – for every model of US to fail if other member states this force should face ambitious of its neighbors and annexed defense: promoting integration defense to join coalitions outside destroyer or frigate, the EU has perceive it simply as a vehicle entry requirements, including a Brexit and the future of European society their territory; or if the European and building capabilities. But EU structures, like France with seven. But most governments are to rally other nations to fight minimum contribution of troops neighborhood was afflicted by by trying to pursue both goals its newly launched European more interested in the job-cre- France’s post-colonial wars. This and minimum defense spending. a string of proxy wars, driving within its first few steps, the EU Intervention Initiative. ation potential of procurement initiative should be widened into These thresholds must move millions of people from their risks achieving neither. How can EU leaders launch than in capability. Moreover, as a broader European Security beyond the flaws of PESCO.

BY ROBIN NIBLETT Security Council and a recognized ingful commitments to strength- paring to leave the EU, the UK NATO ALLIANCE PICTURE homes, including over a mil- The launch of Permanent Struc- a real security initiative to turn long as governments or parlia- Initiative, designed explicitly to This could be established in par- nuclear power. These attributes ening their collective security. For has returned to the Churchillian summit lion refugees to Germany alone; tured Cooperation (PESCO) things around? First, Europe ments of member states retain address other nations’ security allel to a stabilization and civilian do not automatically translate Britain, the instinct has always approach of supporting deeper in Warsaw or if many European countries triggered a big debate between must look more carefully at veto power over deployment of concerns. component – including police, ritain’s vote to leave the into EU capabilities or into Brit- been the reverse. Deeper EU European defense integration, for in 2016, would become victims of ter- the pro-integration and the pro- removing the barriers to invest- their forces – which I support – Part of this could include the border guards and other facilities. EU has added a new layer ish leadership on European secu- policy integration in security is it knows it does not need to be which aims rorist attacks; or if cyber war capability camps. PESCO now ment in military capabilities. The a complete pooling and sharing establishment of a combat-ready This would not be a European Bof complexity to the pro- rity. Nonetheless, drawing on seen as leading to lowest-com- part of it. France, Germany and to deepen their had traveled from science fic- has 25 members, including some EU should exclude investment will not increase capabilities, but European military force made up army but rather a flexible force, cess of strengthening European these assets as a non-EU member mon-denominator outcomes that others have seized this opportu- institutional tion novels to the front pages of whose stated goal is to block in European defense capabilities rather paralyze Europe. of soldiers from different Euro- and more importantly would leave security. It coincides with a chill- will be sub-optimal compared to run counter to resolute action, nity, putting forward a raft of cooperation, this newspapers. And if what foreign EU integration (such as Hun- from the Maastricht rules and The famous “European army” fully functional national military ing of the transatlantic relation- its experiences of full integration and also to Britain’s self-percep- new proposals. will provide one intelligence agencies were fight- gary) and those whose principle include a defense component in is therefore out of the question forces intact. The gulf between ship following the election of in EU arrangements. tion as an independent power On the positive side, Britain avenue for the UK ing information wars inside the goal is to obstruct cooperation the next Multiannual Financial for now. However, common MARK LEONARD the rhetoric of European auton- Donald Trump as US president; And yet, ironically, Britain may with global interests. Moreover, is now under added pressure to to collaborate with EU, and even trying to hack our with NATO (such as Cyprus). Framework (MFF). EU money investment and acquisition is is director of the European omy and the reality of small-scale persistent Russian probing of the be able to offer more to European loose talk of creating a “Euro- deliver on its ambitious $248 EU members on their An additional chal- elections? And if one of the EU’s Maybe countries that fail to could be used to form a compen- much easier to push in terms of Council on Foreign technical projects not only harms political and military resilience security in practice after it leaves pean Army” has been anathema billion defense investment pro- shared security priori- lenge lies in future coopera- two nuclear powers – the one make progress will be expelled sation fund for defense industrial newer technologies such as cyber, Relations, which is our security, but also threatens launching a New European of European governments and the EU than it did in theory when to Britain and the ultimate proof gram and to expand its diplo- ties, irrespective of how tion on counter-terrorism and with the highest share of the EU’s at some point – but that seems losses caused by joint procure- drones and artificial intelligence Security Initiative backed the legitimacy of the European societies; and the intensifica- it was inside. of Brussels overreach. matic presence internationally. CSDP develops. the fight against organized crime. defense spending – chose to leave unlikely. As an analogy, imagine ment as well as for more gener- (AI). As these technologies have by several European project and the possibility of re- tion of radical Islamist terrorist As it has for centuries, conti- As a result, after the brief Brit- If the tone and content of the The British government has Here, the likely lack of a common the EU? And then to top it all off how much progress would have ous support of states participat- not existed for long, there are governments and establishing solidarity through a threats within Europe and a cha- nental Europe will remain the ish flirtation with leading Euro- British government’s September also offered to contribute to the legal framework for sharing data the United States began retreat- been made if member states had ing in EU and non-EU European fewer national idiosyncrasies to companies. union that protects. The EU must otic Middle East. frontline of Britain’s national pean defense integration in the 2017 Future Partnership Paper European Defense Agency and after Brexit will raise new hurdles. ing from many theaters and even been allowed to join the euro military operations. overcome. close this gulf now. In this sense, Brexit could not security. Irrespective of its EU late 1990s under Tony Blair, the on Foreign Policy, Defense and European Defense Fund. In addi- This may be the reason why The- be timed any worse. The deci- membership, the UK will remain UK consistently threw sand into Development is to be believed, tion, Britain’s growing number resa May, in her speech in Flor- sion has caused understandable engaged in the defense of the the gears of this process, vetoing Britain may end up having more of bilateral defense treaties with ence on Sept. 22, 2017, proposed resentment among European eastern and southern borders the establishment of a permanent to offer to European defense as a EU members might serve as a the idea of a “treaty between the leaders, as evidenced in Michel of Europe. Its forces will con- EU military headquarters and result of leaving the EU. buttress to its future security UK and EU” to enable “future Barnier’s remarks in Berlin on tinue to be deployed in Estonia imposing limits on the budget and However, coordinating its relationship with the EU. security, law enforcement and Nov. 29, 2017: “Rather than and Poland as part of NATO’s remit of the European Defense capabilities with the EU will be But the precise model for criminal justice cooperation.” stand shoulder to shoulder with Enhanced Forward Presence and Agency. Furthermore, although more complicated. Today, there the UK’s security partner- Given Britain’s and the EU27’s the union, the British chose to be will serve in NATO’s Very High it participated in a number of are few obstacles to Britain con- ship with the EU will matter shared security interests, it would on their own again.” These are Readiness Joint Task Force. And CSDP missions, including com- tributing to EU missions. But the more over time. Will the UK be logical to integrate Britain as harsh words that do not reflect Britain will try to help contain the manding the EU Naval Force launch of Permanent Structured be “integrated,” i.e. participat- closely as possible with EU deci- the past, current or planned Brit- spread of instability in the Middle Atalanta from its headquarters Cooperation in December 2017 ing, for example, as an active sion-making and operations in ish contributions to European East, whether from the return of at Northwood, the number of among 25 of 27 EU members “observer” in the Foreign the fields of security and defense. security. However, whatever the Islamic State or the collapse of British forces involved remain may lead to innovations in force Affairs Council and Political Whatever the outcome of the arrangement the British govern- the Iranian nuclear deal. Britain low (roughly 150 in 2017). generation and deployments as and Security Committee and economic negotiations, it makes ment strikes with the EU27 after will still have a greater interest More broadly, Britain has been well as in the defense market, involved in developing the man- no sense for Britain to treat the its withdrawal, each side will lose than EU member states like Spain increasingly absent in EU foreign which could make it difficult for date and operational planning EU more as an object of British important levers of diplomatic and Portugal in the security of policy. It has not been involved the UK to “dock” with a more for future EU missions? Or will foreign policy than as an institu- influence. Central and Eastern Europe, and in the Minsk process; it was only integrated EU defense. it merely be “associated,” much tion to whose security policy it is The UK has the largest defense a greater interest than countries in the background of the clos- If the EU and NATO can build like Norway, aligning itself with intimately connected. budget in the EU, one of Europe’s like Finland or Poland in the ing stages of the Iran nuclear on the agreement struck at the security policies, such as those And, for the EU, the idea of most skillful and widespread dip- stability of North Africa and the deal; and it is struggling to make on sanctions, and participat- European “strategic autonomy” lomatic services, and a top-tier Levant. an impact in Libya. It was as ing in missions on a case-by- envisaged in the European Global secret intelligence service and The problem for the UK has if British political leaders could ROBIN NIBLETT case basis? Or will it be more Strategy will be significantly less communications surveillance been that a majority of EU not muster the sense of political has been director of “detached,” privileging its bilat- feasible if Britain pulls itself, or is capacity (GCHQ). It is a world member states believe that only agency necessary to contribute Chatham House since eral relations with EU mem- pushed, to the sidelines of future power in development assistance, by deepening European defense to EU strategic decision-making. 2007. bers and cooperating principally plans for EU security and defense a permanent member of the UN integration will they make mean- In contrast, now that it is pre- through NATO? integration.

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SECURITY STRATEGY SECURITY STRATEGY PICTURE ALLIANCE/IMAGNO PICTURE ALLIANCE/AP PHOTO Euro GroKo Game changers How the new grand coalition, Six developments that could lead to structural changes once formed, will pursue Germany's to the global nuclear order European and foreign policy

BY MICHAEL RÜHLE minister suggested that Pyong- a cyber attack against the nuclear allies, it will not lead to global BY ROLF MÜTZENICH human rights, and a fair global- yang may detonate a nuclear weapons infrastructure of a state nuclear abolition. However, the AND ACHIM POST ization. Especially given the era’s device above the Pacific. After could fundamentally change the ban treaty could seriously under- new risks and shifting global e are still living in more than 70 years of non-use perception of the military and mine the Nuclear Non-prolif- n recent years, certainties power relations, Germany’s for- the second nuclear of nuclear weapons, the actual political utility of nuclear weap- eration Treaty (NPT), the only within international poli- eign policy will give new impetus Wage. Unlike the first employment of a single nuclear ons. near-universal framework for Itics have become fewer for to its principles on the global nuclear age, which was shaped weapon – even if it were intended 3. Nuclear terrorism. Building regulating nuclear possession and Germany. European integra- political stage. This means that by the bipolar nuclear standoff only for political posturing and a nuclear weapon still requires non-possession. Already under tion appears more fragile due to international cooperation, dia- between the United States and would not cause major casual- elaborate state infrastructure. strain by the structural changes of growing social disparities within logue and multilateralism, and the Soviet Union, the second is ties – would be a game changer Should terrorists nonetheless the second nuclear age, the legal the EU; Brexit and nationalist firm commitments to the Euro- Only together do Europeans have a chance to preserve their common values and interests: European Union Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini with EU far more complex. The spread of tremendous significance. For manage a credible threat of stigmatization of nuclear weap- trends across most of Europe are pean Union and the transatlan- foreign and defense ministers after signing the notification on Permanent Structure Cooperation (PESCO) in Brussels in November 2017. of nuclear weapons has made some, it would reinforce the con- nuclear use, or should a funda- ons could damage the NPT to the also playing a role. At the same tic alliance are and will remain deterrence a multiplayer game; viction that nuclear deterrence mentalist regime come to power point of obsolescence. Thus, the time, international policy regimes the cornerstones of Germany’s as the fight against international of its coalition partners deems agreement also lays out a limita- tainable Development remains a Asia has emerged as the region remains essential for prevailing in in a nuclear weapons state, a new third nuclear age might well be and fundamental principles such values and interests. corporate tax evasion. crisis prevention, humanitarian tion on arms exports, a tighten- goal of German foreign policy. with the greatest potential for a nuclearized world, while others nuclear age will have arrived. one without any agreed nuclear as international law, multilateral- More than ever, Europe as a At the same time, the EU aid and development coopera- ing of arms-export directives, In order to foment a just and nuclear conflict; and new nuclear would see the detonation as proof With religious justifications for governance. ism and the universal validity of normative and political founda- must substantially improve and tion as important as a capable a ban on the export of small sustainable world society, the aspirants can benefit from the that nuclear weapons have failed mass murder and the glorifica- The return of great power human rights have come under tion of Germany’s foreign policy expand its competences as an and well-equipped Bundeswehr. arms to third-party countries Grand Coalition will further technological progress made by as a means of inducing restraint tion of martyrdom entering the competition and the emergence pressure. The threat of a new stands at the center of this strat- international political actor. The federal government will and a broad arms-export ban for expand development coopera- others as well as from the emer- in international relations. nuclear equation, the rules of the A thing of the past? The US detonates an atomic bomb in the Pacific in 1962. of new nuclear weapons states arms race and efforts by large egy. Only together do Europeans For the new German govern- therefore allocate appropriate countries directly participating tion particularly in Africa, with gence of semi-private nuclear 2. A major accident in the first and second nuclear age would such as North Korea point to powers to project their influ- have a chance to preserve their ment this means that Permanent investments to both the secu- in the war in Yemen. It is hoped the aim of overcoming poverty supply networks. nuclear military infrastructure become unhinged. Nuclear deter- compel them to declare them- emerge that the US cannot or will the undiminished importance of ence imply additional risks and common values and interests in a Structured Cooperation (PESCO) rity and civil-sector policy areas. that other governments will take and hunger and supporting the Some developments indicate, of a nuclear weapons state. rence would remain an essential selves nuclear powers, it would not counterbalance, some of its nuclear deterrence as an inte- demand new political responses. globalized age. Strengthening the with respect to the European Moreover, for the first time in up and support these initiatives. emergence of new opportuni- however, that a third nuclear age Whether through sabotage or tool for managing interstate rela- trigger a “proliferation cascade” allies, particularly in Asia, may gral part of Western defense. Along with our partners, we European Union internally and Defense Union and the prospect the history of the Federal Repub- A fair globalization in line with ties. Furthermore, Germany will may be approaching. Indications simply through insufficiently tions, yet its limits in the face of that would not only invalidate well conclude that the time has However, criticism of nuclear face the great challenge of pre- externally is thus the key politi- of a European army is as much lic, the coalition partners have the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sus- advocate binding standards for range from the rapid progress of trained staff, a major accident non-rational actors could severely most of the non-proliferation come to opt for national nuclear deterrence will also grow stron- venting a return of war to Europe cal task for the new federal gov- a focus as expanding EU civil agreed that additional funds in social issues, human rights and North Korea’s missile program could foster the perception among reduce that concept’s perceived efforts of the past 50 years, but deterrence. This would deal a ger. Any sound Western security and its neighboring countries, ernment. Working jointly with structures for crisis prevention these two areas will be given the environment in all EU trade, to the treaty aimed at banning the broader public that nuclear value. also dramatically increase the risk major blow to the global non- policy must therefore explain the ROLF MÜTZENICH (MP), and of averting Europe-bound France, Germany will introduce and conflict resolution. In paral- investment priority in equal pro- deputy chairman of investment and economic-part- nuclear weapons. While these weapons are a no longer a security 4. A nuclear tipping point. A of nuclear conflict. proliferation regime, which has importance of nuclear deterrence refugee flows triggered by civil initiatives for a strong, demo- lel, the federal government will portions. the SPD Bundestag nership agreements. In so doing, developments seem contradictory, provider but a security liability. new nuclear hegemon emerging 5. The decline of extended always been far more dependent without trivializing its risks. It war, climate change and undem- cratic, competitive and social actively support further expan- With this approach, the new parliamentary group Germany will assume a leading they contribute to the emergence Similarly, the temporary loss of in a volatile region could compel deterrence. The degradation of on US engagement than most must also remind Western publics ocratic and unconscionable living Europe. sion of European development federal government will stay the (responsible for foreign, role in establishing a fair EU trade of a new nuclear age in which control over nuclear weapons due several neighbors to exercise the the credibility of the US as a observers dare to admit. that managing a complex nuclear conditions. Even aside from these This includes resolute reform cooperation through a coherent political course set under Chan- defense and human rights policy. At the same time, the nuclear deterrence may become “plutonium option,” i.e. use their promulgator of extended deter- 6. A major change in the legal reality requires more than merely issues, sustainable German and of the Economic and Monetary Africa strategy. cellor Angela Merkel by the policy issues) National Action Plan for Busi- more important yet also more dif- civilian light-water reactors to rence could spell the end of the framework for nuclear gover- claiming the moral high ground; European development policy Union, with an investment Working with its neighbors, Social Democratic foreign min- ACHIM POST (MP), ness and Human Rights (NAP) ficult to sustain. Six developments MICHAEL RÜHLE produce weapons-grade pluto- successful deal that provides nance. A nuclear weapons ban if proposals such as the ban treaty has an essential part to play. budget for the euro zone in lieu Germany will take on more isters Steinmeier and Gabriel. deputy chairman of will be consistently implemented could lead to structural changes to is head of the Energy nium. As light-water reactors American nuclear deterrence to treaty, which seeks to stigma- would make major war more The new German federal gov- of a one-dimensional policy of responsibility in the future, This includes new initiatives for the SPD Bundestag in its entirety. the global nuclear order that may Security Section at continue to spread, the number allies in exchange for their nuclear tize nuclear weapons as illegal, likely, they do not constitute a parliamentary group NATO’s Emerging ernment will seek to help shape austerity. Moreover, the fight including within the context of arms control and disarmament If formed as expected, the new justifiably be termed a “third” Kunde: Serviceplanof states that Format: acquire such290 x 260 a mmabstinence. Hence,Auftrags-Nr.: should the US 309395is now a foregone conclusion. morally superior alternative. To (responsible for European Security Challenges this period of upheaval in a posi- for a European social compact its United Nations, EU, OSCE aimed at preventing a conven- and economic cooperation federal government will live up nuclear age: Division. TheKampagne/Etat: author’s BMW“breakout” capabilityBeschnitt: will 5grow mm appear to waver onOperator its extended FZDSince a treaty that they persis- prevent a third nuclear age, West- tive way – in the direction of and against youth unemployment and NATO partnerships and tional and nuclear arms race issues) to and embrace its international 1. Nuclear use. In the summer views are solelyMotiv/Name: his own. Theas 7 Series well. Should MBZ/BGE/SF: a major change0/5 mm deterrence commitments,Kundenfreigabe or tently oppose cannot bind the ern leaders have their work cut peace and security, freedom and will be carried on as vigorously alliances. The foreign policy on our continent. The coalition responsibility. of 2017, NorthConventstraße Korea’s 1 – 3 | 22089 foreign Hamburg | Germany Publikation/Art in their securityProfil: environmentisocoated v2_eci_GCR65_TAC300should a new majorABC-Geprüft challenger nuclear weapons states and their out for them. Tel. +49 40 25109-0 | albertbauer.com 180205_AZ_SecurityTimes_260x290_aw.qxp_AZ 05.02.18 14:45 Seite 1 Kontakt: Stefan Klöpper Trapping: nein Revision 2.2

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Continued from Page 1 SECURITY STRATEGY SECURITY STRATEGY Power boost yet be prepared for alternative that France and Germany coop- scenarios. erate closely and successfully The EU has made significant despite disparate strategic cul- progress over the past two years. tures and sometimes even diver- The EU and its member states gent political and geographic have become ever more active priorities and preferences. Our in their crisis management, espe- common benchmark is always cially with regard to Africa, to make Europe more capable, where European smart power whether with regard to expe- can really make a difference. Our ditionary operations or to col- humanitarian assistance, civilian lective defense and the develop- crisis prevention and our capac- ment of military capability. Our ity building for security forces in cooperation is therefore never five Sahel countries and for the exclusive. Indeed, we are eager President for a half-year Libyan coastguard are cases in to create plenty of opportunities over the entrance of the Bulgarian defense union, or Permanent and its voice is heard. The issues The EU should continue to sup- glers who literally trade in human point. With the Permanent Struc- for our European partners to join Parliament. Bulgaria will strive to Structured Cooperation (PESCO)? we have to solve require rapid port development and humanitar- lives. How many people have tured Co-Operation (PESCO) in our ambitions – for the benefit of be an honest broker in leading the The launch of PESCO is an solutions. Each member ian policies. The solution is to died on their way to “salvation”? European Security and Defense, the EU and NATO. I am confi- The Security Times spoke with Boyko Borisov, discussions on the issues that con- important step for the fulfillment state carries responsibil- help origin countries eliminate The entry to the EU is through the Coordinated Annual Review dent that Great Britain, too, will prime minister of Bulgaria and the current president nect us and unite us; we want to be of the European integration project ity for finding them the causes for migration by over- the official border checkpoints, on Defense (CARD) and the find its new European role. part of all the integration processes and the building of the European and should make its coming poverty, investing in their where asylum-seekers will receive European Defense Fund, we After all, being a strong power of the European Council, about the country’s role in and for Europe of the Union – Schengen, the euro- Defense Union. PESCO brings the contribution. economies and guaranteeing polit- adequate care. Bulgaria is a role have created additional instru- is not a goal in itself – and does zone, asylum policy, the new secu- EU closer to its goal of improving ical stability. Education pro- model as the country that best ments to harmonize our defense not solve all our problems. Engag- rity and defense policy. Our coun- the cost-effectiveness of defense In 2015, Bul- grams are needed for young guards the external EU border, efforts. In a truly comprehensive ing in a foolish arms race would try ranks second in terms of public spending and becoming a serious garia also bore people, for it is frequently despite not being admitted to approach we have also improved not automatically result in more he Bulletin of the Atomic Syria and Iraq. These are all pro- ciples should be deemed threats. How would you evaluate devel- confidence in European values; our partner in the field of international the brunt of a they who are encouraged to Schengen. It is also necessary the EU’s abilities in civilian and security. It could have precisely Scientists has advanced the cesses that reflect the general secu- Such actions we cannot and will opments in neighboring Turkey? citizens have been seeing for them- security. We support an adequate, high number of go to Western Europe just that we continue working with military crisis management, in the opposite effect for Europe. Tbig hand of its Dooms- rity situation. Radicalization and not accept. Turkey is one of the most selves the benefits of European ambitious and transparently func- refugees. Many to be able to send 50 or 100 the states bordering the conflict cyber defense and with respect to Confidence building measures day Clock, which forecasts the terrorism also generate threats. important partners of the EU. solidarity – in 2017 we witnessed 4 tioning rule-based PESCO that now fear a new euros a week to their rela- countries, such as Turkey. Since hybrid threats. and the strengthening our nuclear destruction of the world through Migration is becoming an ever- NATO is pursuing a two- The Bulgarian president will be percent economic growth, and the will contribute to the security of wave of refugees tives in their home country. the agreement with the EU has Over the course of this process, and conventional arms control nuclear war; the time is now two deeper problem for democratic pronged approach in terms of hosting an EU-Turkey Summit, same rate is expected for this year the EU and the enhancement of from Syria and At the same time we should come into force, migration pres- it has become ever more obvi- architecture are thus also atop minutes before midnight. The Bul- societies in transit and host coun- Russia: While readying its defenses because there needs to be direct as well; the unemployment rate is the European pillar within NATO. Africa. What to do? make no compromise sure from Turkey on our border ous that it often lies with France Germany’s and Europe’s agenda, letin’s justification was the war tries. This has led to the rise and and focusing on deterrence, it is dialogue with Turkish leadership, now at 6 percent; highways have PESCO's success will depend on As I have said mul- with the smug- has dropped 84 percent. and Germany to boost European especially with regard to interme- threats levied between the US and development of nationalist and also reaching out to seek common dialogue not funneled through the been constructed; waste and water the progress of concrete projects, tiple times: First and power, and that they should also diate-range nuclear forces. North Korea – which have aggra- radical political entities in Europe, understanding through direct dia- media. Yes, there are problems, treatment plants as well as energy- which we expect to be officially foremost we should play the key role in meeting the Europe has power. But it is the vated tensions between America which carrying with them risks for logue. What are the most pressing with human rights protection, for efficiency projects for residential adopted soon. seek to address the root technological and innovation responsibility of European lead- and its rivals in China, Iran and these democratic societies. topics for discussion? example, but the right approach buildings have been implemented; causes. And the activeness challenges presented by the US, ers to ensure that this power will Russia – as well as the expansion The two-pronged approach has is to talk things through in an in our ten years of membership we When you see active European of European diplomacy in China and others. We must take remain sufficient to protect the of existing atomic arsenals and How does Bulgaria assess the its logic. The deterrence activities open and frank way. We have have seen a 16-percent growth in policy cooperation between the process of solving the care that Europe remains at the European people, their freedom the complete and utter lack of new threat posed by Russian are entirely defense-oriented and in many topics of common interest – employment; incomes have been France and Germany, do you feel crises should increase. forefront of technological inno- and ideas, their welfare and pros- arms control talks. In Asia, China policy in Ukraine, the Crimea and accordance with international law. combatting terrorism, migration. going up; per capita GDP based hope for new progress towards vation, especially with regard to perity. Only if Europe is and con- is seeking to dominate its neigh- Transnistria? However, dialogue is absolutely Renewing dialogue will benefit on disposable income went up integration, or rather concern cyber and Industry 4.0 – includ- tinues to be powerful will it be bors, while North Korea has risen The events in Ukraine changed necessary for two reasons: first, both the EU and Turkey. from 27 percent to 40.8 percent over German-French dominance ing the military domain. A Euro- able to meet its full responsibilities to become yet another country in the security environment in through dialogue we can present compared to EU; and our economy within the EU? pean Union capable of winning towards an international world the atomic weapons club. And in Europe and NATO-Russia rela- our arguments; and second, it is For six months now Bulgaria has grown by 41 percent. People Rather hope than concern. only the conflicts of the past, but order now under stress. Eastern Europe, former member tions. The military build-up in the only way we can narrow the is going to chair the Council of in Bulgaria have never lived better France and Germany are the not those of the future, would states of the Warsaw Pact are Crimea poses additional chal- gaps between opposing positions the European Union. The UK is since the country joined the Euro- motor of European inte- become vulnerable to political cowering before Russia. Is the lenges. Breaching the principles and find a way out of the ongoing saying goodbye to the EU, while pean Union. We aim to work on gration. The movement blackmail; it would be powerless. SIGMAR GABRIEL world again becoming a place of international law is unaccept- conflict burdening international many Eastern European countries the issues that are on the European ahead of the whole Euro- / JÜRGEN HEINRICH IMAGO After Brexit, France and was head of the Social to fear? able. The integrity of borders is relations. Instead of an escalation are at least partially governed by agenda in a way that the EU citi- pean structure depends Democratic Party from Germany will carry the major 2009 to March 2017. He inviolable, and this is especially of tensions, we need cooperation nationalist, right-wing populist or zens will feel they are the focus of on the proper function- responsibility for ensuring that was minister of economy What dangers do you see in important in today’s democratic towards resolving conflicts and Eurosceptic parties. What are Bul- European policies. This will help ing of this motor. Of this does not happen. Together and energy from 2013 to Europe? Europe. We do not need new fighting terrorism. I believe we can garia’s plans for using its council strengthen European solidarity, course, the unique- they will spend more on defense January 2017, when he There is a general international military conflicts. We need peace, achieve a sustainable resolution presidency to advance European including on topics where there is ness of the EU became foreign minister. than the other 24 countries par- Since the election in trend of growing insecurity. We cooperation, prosperity and of the Ukraine crisis within the solidarity? currently no consensus. comes from the ticipating in the European Secu- September he has served have a crisis in Ukraine; Crimea respect for territorial integrity Normandy Quartet, which would The motto of the Bulgarian fact that each rity and Defense Policy of the EU as acting foreign minister. is occupied; the eastern Mediter- and sovereignty. Any actions that also allow for the normalization of presidency is “United We Stand What are your thoughts on the member state combined. It is thus necessary ranean is unstable; and then there’s contradict these established prin- NATO-Russia relations. Strong.” This motto also hangs efforts to establish a European has its say

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SECURITY STRATEGY SECURITY STRATEGY CHAIN OF SECESSION All border changes in Europe since 1990 have violated international treaties

BY ANDREAS ZUMACH states as actors of international law and UN members, stressing the time was driven primarily international law. According to backed by Russia and currently to be paymaster for the poorer ter (1990) and other agreements regarding the annexation of the their “sovereign equality,” the by Germany, took place without a 2010 International Court of recognized by just three other remainder of Spain. Similarly, and arrangements that European Crimea is a dangerous miscalcula-

hat do the follow- “inviolability of their territorial IMAGES IMAGO/IKON agreement with the Yugoslav gov- Justice (ICJ) opinion, Kosovo’s UN states – as well as the state- Italy’s Lega Nord has long advo- states have concluded within the tion. Crimea would then become ing places have in boundaries and political order,” ernment and against the explicit declaration of indepen- hood of the Moldovan province cated splitting off the prosperous framework of the OSCE. Some a permanent flashpoint between Wcommon: Kosovo, and the “principle of non-inter- warning of UN Secretary dence was in itself of Transnistria, recognized only north from the poor south of the of these are in breach of inter- Moscow and Kiev, between Crimea, Catalonia, Chechnya, vention in the internal affairs of General Javier Pérez not a violation of by Moscow. country. national laws established by the Russia and the West, and a source Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Trans- other states.” de Cuéllar. international In ex-Yugoslavia and Ukraine, The motives of the Scots and UN Charter. of trouble within Europe. nistria, Hungary, Scotland and Therefore, the secession of the law, but the the secessionists were and are eth- Northern Irish who want to leave The taboo of changing nation- If it remains uncorrected, Koso- the Kurdish regions of Iraq, Syria Igbos in East Nigeria into their ICJ issued nically defined groups dominated the United Kingdom also differ. state boundaries was discarded in vo’s sovereignty achieved by the and Turkey? After the Cold War, own state of Biafra in 1972 found no state- by other ethnic groups or dis- They want to stay on as members the 1990s and cannot be restored. NATO wars against Serbia will each was the scene of secession no support internationally and ment criminated against and persecuted of the EU following Brexit. Yet there must be rules for all remain a source of instability in attempts or demands to alter was reversed four years later after o n by the central government. In the Whatever the reasoning and future border changes. They must Southeast Europe. Kosovo is a national borders. a bloody war initiated by the case of the annexation of Crimea, specific circumstances, with the be non-violent and require con- corrupt mafia state; it offers no In Yugoslavia, Georgia and the government of Nigeria. Eritrea further motivations include Rus- exception of the peaceful and sensual procedures with consti- future for the younger genera- Ukraine, the secessionists used only gained its – subsequently the sia’s security interests regarding consensual division of Czecho- tutional standards involving all tion and serves as a cautionary violence to forcibly shift national recognized – independence from inter- the eastern expansion of NATO, slovakia and dissolution of the those affected. example that secessions and state borders with the help of external Ethiopia in 1993 after a 30-year national as well as attempts at histori- Soviet Union into 15 states, all Within the framework of the foundations based on ethnic actors (NATO, Russia). Other- war. By contrast, Somaliland, status of cal justification – Russia claims border changes in Europe since OSCE, preliminary rules have homogeneity do not work. wise, the specific circumstances which announced its secession Kosovo. Crimea had been part of Russia 1990 have seen the use or threat been agreed upon but still must The same applies to Bosnia- and historical background in all from Somalia in 1991, is still Consequently, since 1783, during the reign of of violence as well as an absence be specified and furnished with Herzegovina. Established in 1995 these cases differ widely. only recognized by three African only 103 of the 193 Catherine the Great, until Nikita of agreement among concerned implementation provisions. As a through the Dayton Accords, the The four decades of global East- countries. In all three cases, the UN member states have Khrushchev illegally transferred parties; they have also violated regional sub-organization of the constitution proclaims a uni- West confrontation saw few such secessionists invoked the “right recognized Kosovo, including the territory to Ukraine in 1954. the UN Charter, the Helsinki UN, the OSCE should work to tary state but places all essential efforts. And those that existed had of peoples to self-determination.” only 23 of the 28 EU members. In Hungary, right-wing pop- Final Act (1975), the Paris Char- ensure that these rules are also powers in the hands of two ethni- little chance of lasting success, not This right is also enshrined in the Kosovo became a precedent that ulists, now part of the ruling incorporated into global interna- cally defined entities, the Repub- least because they lacked support UN Charter, but without any motivated nationalists among coalition, use ethnic claims to tional law – with possible provi- lika Srpska and the Muslim-Croat from the two dominant powers, rules for its implementation and the Bosnian Serbs to demand the justify their aggressive calls for ANDREAS ZUMACH sions for the “right of peoples to Federation under the umbrella is a Geneva-based the United States and the Soviet without resolving the conflict The withdrawal of their “Republika the restoration of “Greater Hun- newspaper, radio and self-determination” proclaimed in of a weak multi-ethnic central Union, and the other three UN with the Charter’s three basic Pandora’s Srpska” from Bosnia-Herzegov- gary” through the incorporation TV correspondent. His the UN Charter. government in constant paralysis. veto powers of France, Great Brit- principles. box of arbi- ina and its annexation to Serbia. of areas inhabited by Hungarian latest book, Globales Furthermore, the results of Unless this constitution is cor- ain and China. Following the end of the Cold trary changes in To justify its annexation of minorities in the three neighbor- Chaos – machtlose UNO. the cited border changes should rected, Bosnia-Herzegovina will In addition, there was no con- War, however, the EU invoked national boundar- Crimea in violation of interna- ing countries of Romania, Mol- Ist die Weltorganisation also be scrutinized. They must remain a failed state. Since the sensus among the member states this “right” to selectively recog- ies was thus opened. tional law, the Russian govern- dova and Ukraine. überflüssig geworden? either be improved or corrected, country’s inhabitants are unable (Global chaos – of the UN that the three basic nize the three Yugoslav republics Eight years later, NATO ment points to Kosovo and the On the other hand, the reasons or at least achieve a widened to make that change, the three powerless UN. Has principles of the founding charter of Slovenia, Croatia and Bos- created the conditions for the ethnic Russian separatists in East- behind Catalonia’s desire to leave the global organization basis of legitimacy and acceptance initiators and guarantors of the of 1945 should not be called into nia-Herzegovina as independent secession and independence of ern Ukraine. The same goes for Spain are exclusively economic. become expendable?) through consensual procedures. Dayton Agreement – the US, question. The Charter begins with states after they had seceded from Kosovo with its war of aggression the secessions of Abkhazia and By far the country’s richest prov- was published in 2016. “Let’s forget it and move on” Russia and the EU – must shoul- the phrase “We the peoples...” the Yugoslav Federation. This against Serbia, a war that violated South Ossetia from Georgia – ince, Catalonia no longer wants – this frequently heard opinion der that responsibility. but goes on to define national selective recognition, which at

CONNECTED CYBERSECURITY – CONNECTED SUCCESS

Connected cybersecurity is the basis of digital transforma- This applies in particular to tomorrow’s critical IT infra- the key factors for growth and success. Digitization brings tion and a growth driver of our economy. From September structures such as air traffic management systems, smart with it epochal changes that have far-reaching effects on 20 to 22, 2018, Messe München will be bringing together grids and a highly automated traffic control center for different levels of our social structure. Interdisciplinary dia- decision-makers and experts at Europe‘s leading digitiz- autonomous vehicles. In such infrastructures sophisticated logue is therefore essential for the risk-based, political and ation hub for the “Command Control” summit, exploring systems including geolocation satellites, ground stations, economic governance of the connected world. the perspectives for risk and opportunity in the field of vehicle electronics, data networks and software compo- cybersecurity. nents interlock. Attacking just one of these components Command Control takes cybersecurity to the next level. can have devastating effects on the security of the entire Command Control is the first interactive and interdisci- The fact is, cyber attacks and digitization are inseparable system, and thus on the lives of connected car users and plinary summit to consider the cross-sector relevance of and must be accounted for together in strategic business their environments. connected cybersecurity - and address related fields of planning. As data, things, machines and individuals grow Integrated Risk action and growth along connected industries and value ever more interconnected, so do the vulnerabilities of Management chains. Command Control offers decision makers and consumers, companies and governments. Digital specialists innovative showcases with answers to growing Factory complexities in fields such as digital factories, integrated Corporate and operational management in particular risk management, critical infrastructures, data manage- face multiple complexities and uncertainties as a result of ment and the human factor in cybersecurity. digitization. To realize their digital business potential, they need improved governance approaches toward security Become part of Command Control from September and risk management. 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Only then it is pos- Critical connected cybersecurity, sible to detect connected risks of digitization more quickly Data Infrastructure • Conveys a holistic understanding of cybersecurity along and take preventive steps. In a nutshell, the connected Protection secure digital value chains as an internationally leading world’s security issues require a new systemic approach. interdisciplinary decision-making platform, Digitization needs a secure foundation to continue to • Demonstrates the cross-industry bridge to future How will people travel in the future, and how will goods be transported? What resources will we use, and how many will we need? Yet cybersecurity continues to lag, even as networ- grow and prosper and be free. It can be protected only topics and new growth markets with cybersecurity, The passenger and freight traffic sector is developing rapidly, and we provide the impetus for innovation and movement. We ked cyberattacks multiply. All too often cybersecurity is through holistic cybersecurity to prevent manipulation or • Visualizes strategic and operational dependencies for the develop components and systems for internal combustion engines that operate more cleanly and more efficiently than ever reduced to an isolated, technically complex and costly disruption along current and future value chains. Connec- industrial and service sectors as well as critical infrastruc- before. We are also pushing forward technologies that are bringing hybrid vehicles and alternative drives into a new dimension – domain of experts. Hierarchical corporate structures and ted cybersecurity must be understood as a strategic and tures using forward-looking cybersecurity showcases, for private, corporate, and public use. The challenges are great. We deliver the solutions. limited cooperation mechanisms within the industry often interdisciplinary matter. Today more than ever, this requires • Sets a user-centered focus on managing growing digital prevent cybersecurity from being perceived as an essential inter-sector exchange, for example in the energy sector complexities and uncertainties through leading www.schaeffler-mobility.com cross-sector vehicle for ensuring secure value chains and a and the digital intersection of electricity, heating, produc- practices and a steered dialogue, factor in the economy’s future success. tion and transport. This has become an obligation rather • And as a thought leader in the field, provides important than an option, not least for the sake of competitiveness impulses for driving new leadership cultures and More than ever before, sustainable and qualitative growth and the future viability of our economy. processes, as well as quality standards and synergies

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900276_Mobilitaet_290x260_US.indd 1 12.01.2018 11:05:55 16 The Security Times February 2018

SECURITY STRATEGY

February 2018 The Security Times 17 TEN CONFLICTS TO WATCH IN 2018 SECURITY CHALLENGES

BY ROBERT MALLEY

t’s not all about Donald Trump. That’s a statement 1. North Korea Imore easily written than 6. Syria North Korea’s nuclear and missile testing believed, given the US presi- While President Bashar al-Assad’s regime coupled with America’s bellicosity make the dent’s comportment on the has the upper hand, thanks to Iranian and threat of a Korean Peninsula war — even world stage — his tweets and Russian backing, the fighting is not over. nuclear confrontation — higher than at any taunts, his disregard of interna- PICTURE ALLIANCE/AA Swaths of the country remain beyond the time in recent history. In response to Pyong- PICTURE ALLIANCE/AP PHOTO tional accords, his odd choice regime’s control and foreign powers dis- yang’s weapons testing, the US has adopted of foes, his even odder choice agree on a settlement. With the IS gone, a “maximum pressure” strategy: tougher of friends. But a more inward- risks of clashes elsewhere increase. In the sanctions and implicit threats of military looking US, the increasing mili- southwest, Israel could take military action to action. Sanctions will not bite immediately, tarization of foreign policy and repel Iran-backed militias around the Golan however, and ordinary citizens are certain shrinking space for diplomacy Heights. Turkey’s early 2018 offensive into Security Challenges to suffer before the regime will. Graver still, and multilateralism are features the Kurdish-held Afrin enclave introduces a any military action by Washington would of the international order that dangerous new element. A regime offensive likely provoke a response from Pyongyang, predate Trump and look set to in Syria’s northwest, where rebel-held areas risking an unpredictable escalation. All outlast him. host some 2 million Syrians, would provoke sides should use the lull during the South The first trend – US retrench- massive destruction and displacement. A Korea Winter Olympics to prepare for a Nuclear missile test in North Korea. ment – has been years in the IS is gone, new wars ahead? deal between Turkey and Russia that sees diplomatic initiative that includes freezes making. It is a matter of degree, Ankara deploy forces along front lines and on North Korean weapons testing and some given approximately 200,000 Moscow deter a regime attack appears the US-South Korean military exercises presag- US troops deployed worldwide. only way to avert such an offensive. ing talks toward a more durable resolution. But in its ability to mold events, America’s influence has long 7. The Sahel 2. US-Saudi-Iran rivalry been waning thanks to over- States across the Sahel are struggling The rivalry is enabled by the growing reach abroad, fatigue at home with intercommunal conflicts, jihadist vio- authority of Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi and a natural rebalancing after lence and fighting over smuggling routes. Arabia’s crown prince; the Trump administra- the US supremacy of the 1990s. Their leaders’ predation often makes matters tion’s aggressive strategy toward Iran; and PICTURE ALLIANCE/ABACA However nativist and intoler- PICTURE ALLIANCE/ABACA worse. In 2012, the Malian army’s rout from the end of the Islamic State’s self-proclaimed ant Trump’s vision of “America the north and a coup showed how quickly caliphate, which allows Washington and First” may be, both Bernie Sand- things can unravel. Since then, instability Riyadh to shift attention to Iran. Their goal ers and Barack Obama before has spread from the north to Mali’s cen- – to roll back Iranian regional influence – is him also rejected foreign entan- tral region as well as to Niger and Burkina clear; whether they can achieve it is not. glements during their campaigns. Faso. Over the past year, alarm at mount- Tehran and its allies look strong. The Assad Trump was reflecting the public ing insecurity has prompted an increasingly regime is prevailing in Syria. In Iraq, Iran- mood, not shaping it. militarized response, with a French-backed linked militias are entrenched. In Yemen, The second trend – the milita- African force, the G5 Sahel, deploying into Tehran’s modest investment has helped the rization of foreign policy – repre- a field already crowded by France’s counter- Houthis survive. Thus far, US belligerence sents continuity as well. Trump’s terrorism operations, US Special Forces and taste for generals and disdain has done little to erode Tehran’s reach. Any Defense Minister von der Leyen in UN peacekeepers. The G5 force risks stir- Iran demonstrating strength. more determined attempt could prompt for diplomats magnifies a wider Mali. ring up a hornets’ nest unless accompanied Tehran to respond through partners across pattern. Space for diplomacy has by efforts to win over local populations and the region. With so many flashpoints, and long been shrinking. Many lead- defuse local disputes. DPA so little diplomacy, the risk of escalation is ers appear prone to fight more Mossul – freed from IS but heavily destroyed. great. than talk – and to fight by violat- 8. Democratic Republic of the Congo ing rather than respecting norms. Over 2017, President Joseph Kabila’s con- 3. The Rohingya Crisis This owes much to years of coun- tinued rule worsened the DRC’s political Myanmar’s Rohingya crisis has entered terterrorism rhetoric, which often crisis and a humanitarian emergency that is a dangerous new phase. An August 2017 gives governments license to treat now one of the world’s worst. The Saint Syl-

attack by the militant Arakan Rohingya rivals as terrorists. It is also a PICTURE ALLIANCE/AP PHOTO vester December 2016 agreement appeared BY VOLKER PERTHES oil-dependent future. They also Salvation Army (ARSA) prompted indis- product of more conflicts involv- to offer a way out by requiring elections by include attempts to make fuller criminate operations by the Myanmar army PICTURE ALLIANCE/AP PHOTO ing valuable geopolitical real the end of 2017, after which Kabila would use of Saudi Arabia’s human against the Muslim Rohingya community; estate, escalating regional and leave power. His regime backtracked, hree issues are likely to Bismarck would blush potential – both male and female at least 655,000 fled for Bangladesh. Refu- major power rivalries, and the exploiting the opposition’s disarray and determine the Middle East – to promote scientific and tech- gees will not return unless Myanmar guar- proliferation of armed groups. waning international attention; in November Tagenda in 2018: ongo- nical education, downgrade the antees their security, freedom of movement The third trend is the erosion 2017, electoral authorities announced a vote ing efforts to unwind the war in The political geometry of the Middle East has been redrawn in the last year influence of the religious -estab and access to services and other rights, of multilateralism. Where Obama at the end of 2018. Despite unrest in many Syria, the Saudi-Iranian rivalry lishment and the appeal of radical which it appears unlikely to do. International opted – with mixed results – for provinces, the regime maintains the initia- and, of course, the positioning Wahhabi Islam, and foster a sense pressure is critical but unlikely to positively burden sharing, Trump’s instinct tive. It may push toward elections in 2018; and policies of Russia and the US. of nationalism instead. This is change Myanmar’s policies. The refugee is for burden shedding. But even a presidential spokesman recently said the Other unresolved conflicts will nity to reach a negotiated settle- apparatus in Damascus, consider- arguably triggered by the Pen- The Qatar crisis of 2017 did not quite the Bismarckian challenge, population creates dangers for Bangladesh; this dynamic, too, has deeper Riots against president Kabila, Dec. Kabila would not seek election, but he may continue to be enormously con- ment between government and able economic opportunities and tagon’s announcement that the come out of the blue; it emerged and history tells of more than one tension between refugees and the host com- roots. In terms of international 2017. still be keeping options open. The risk of sequential to the people affected opposition. Almost all recognize what amounts to a secure land US would create a 30,000-strong as a poorly engineered eruption example where such an endeavor munity is an immediate risk. In Myanmar, Solidarity with Rohinyas in Naples, peace and security, multilater- further deterioration or even a descent into by it – the war in Yemen and the risk of a continued fragmen- connection from Iran through Kurdish “protection” force in the of long-standing differences. With accompanied a rather aggressive ARSA could regroup or, along with other Italy. alism has been mishandled for chaos remains. the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in tation of the country and even of Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. In con- large PYD-controlled territory no serious efforts to resolve it, the foreign policy. groups, launch cross-border attacks. Imple- years. The UN Security Council’s particular – but are likely to have the emergence of an “IS 2.0” if trast to Russia, Iran has allies and stretching along Turkey’s south- dispute seems to have become It is an irony of sorts that both menting the recommendations of the Kofi dysfunction has left it impotent 9. Ukraine a lesser impact on the overall the internal war were to continue clients yet no friends in Syria. At ern perimeter from the Euphrates something of a frozen conflict à the Saudi crown prince and Iran’s Annan-led Advisory Commission on Rakhine on many conflicts since the 2011 DPA The conflict in Eastern Ukraine has claimed political geometry of the region. and no basic settlement reached. some point it may find it has over- to the Iraqi border. l’Arabe, whose chief result has President Hassan Rohani, who State would put Myanmar on a better path. Libya intervention. Many leaders over 10,000 lives and wreaked enormous In Syria, as well as in neigh- This does not mean they agree on reached. It is also unclear whether Both Turkey and Iran have thus been the weakening of the one was re-elected with a convinc- emphasize bilateral or ad hoc humanitarian suffering. Implementation of boring Iraq, the war against the the best way to settle the conflict. domestic opposition and protest fallen in line with the Russian functioning sub-regional organi- ing majority in 2017, are highly 4. Yemen arrangements over multilateral- the Minsk II peace deal has stalled. Both Islamic State is almost over, at It remains to be seen whether can or will push the Iranian lead- approach to conflict resolution zation in the Middle East – the aware of the need for domestic With 8 million people on the brink of famine ism. sides exchange fire across the line divid- least against IS in its form as a Russia will use its influence on ership towards a less confronta- in Syria. We should not be aston- six-member Gulf Cooperation reform in their respective coun- and over 3 million displaced, the Yemen Then again, much of it is indeed ing Ukrainian from separatist and Russian territorially based jihadist state- the ground to enforce a pacifica- tional regional and international ished if Ankara at some point re- Council. Qatar bears the brunt of tries. There would be something war could escalate further. In December about Trump. forces. Yet the east is only part of the story. building project or self-declared tion with rather limited constitu- posture, and concentrate more on establishes official links with the the economic losses of the boycott to gain from regional cooperation PICTURE ALLIANCE/AA 2017, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh Today’s most ominous threats President Petro Poroshenko has struggled Caliphate. The civilian popula- tional changes; this would basi- economic reform and construc- government in Damascus. enforced upon it by its neighbors between these two powers, but announced that his General People’s Con- – a Korean Peninsula war or against systemic corruption. Ukrainians are tion and original parties to the cally preserve the current political tive relations with other powers. While much of the confronta- and Egypt. But Saudi Arabia and each may lose the opportunity gress (GPC) was abandoning the Houthis confrontation between the US losing faith in institutions, elites and the conflict – government, opposition, system while co-opting a number There are certainly political actors tion between Saudi Arabia and its allies, primarily the UAE, have to see his reform programs to in favor of the Saudi-led coalition; he was and its allies against Iran – could Minsk agreement, which many see as a rebel forces – have all suffered of leaders from the political and in Iran who would favor such an Iran has played out in Syria over been ineffective in enforcing their fruition due to costly external immediately killed by his erstwhile partners. be aggravated by Trump. US concession to separatists. Russia’s Sep- enormous losses. The govern- armed opposition. Alternatively, adjustment, yet others who would the past seven years, the two will on their smaller neighbor. confrontations. Riyadh, encouraged by Trump’s anti-Iran demands – in the North Korean tember 2017 draft of a UN Security Coun- ment of President Bashar al-Assad UN efforts to engage the par- rather try to compensate any sign countries have been geopolitical Rather than scaling down its While his regional policies have rhetoric, appears determined to intensify its case, denuclearization; in Iran’s, cil resolution proposing peacekeepers for has re-established control over ties in real peace negotiations of domestic weakness with a more rivals for much longer, since even relations to Iran, Doha became thus far brought mixed results campaign. The Houthis will likely continue to renegotiation of the nuclear deal Ukraine could be an opportunity. While the some two-thirds of the country. will eventually lead to a more aggressive foreign-policy stance. before Iran became the Islamic dependent on Iranian air space at best, Mohammad bin Salman fire missiles across the border. Negotiations, or Tehran’s regional retreat – lightly armed force envisaged would more Given its ongoing reliance on the genuine form of power sharing, a Ankara and Tehran do not see Republic. But none of the features and imports, upgraded the rela- was able to boost his domestic Remains of war in Eastern Ukraine. already distant, have become more compli- are unrealistic without diplomacy likely freeze the conflict than resolve it, Mos- massive support of Russia, Iran new constitutional reality, signifi- the world through the same lens, of this rivalry is an unchangeable tionship and invited Turkey to and regional posture by secur- cated. The Saudis and their allies should take or reciprocal concessions. In the cow’s proposal opens a window for Kiev and and Iranian-sponsored forces to cant guarantees for political and but they do share similar threat given. As regards Syria, Saudi enlarge its military presence in ing the personal support of US steps to ease civilian suffering. Were they former, Washington risks pro- its Western allies to explore how peacekeep- regain and hold territory it had human rights, and credible, UN- perceptions. Both want to make Arabia no longer opposes a settle- the Emirates. President Donald Trump and a US to embrace a peace initiative, pressure to Protests against the war in Jemen. voking a nuclear war to avoid ers might help. previously lost either to opposi- supervised presidential and legis- sure not to end up as junior part- ment that would leave Assad in Saudi Arabia’s increasingly acknowledgement of Saudi’s lead accept it would shift to the Houthis. one; in the latter, it risks jeopar- tional forces or to IS, it is much lative elections. Given the struc- ners to a Russian-planned and power, but wants to prevent what assertive regional policy should role in a loose coalition of Arab dizing a functioning nuclear deal 10. Venezuela weaker today than in 2011. If ture of influence and leverage, the Russian-managed settlement of it would regard as an Iranian not be seen in isolation from states. It was no great feat for the 5. Afghanistan for the sake of fruitless confron- Venezuela took yet another turn for the any party has won the war, it is former seems more achievable, the conflict in Syria. They want takeover. There could be room the ambitious and much-needed crown prince to align himself with Afghanistan’s war looks certain to inten- tation with Iran. worse in 2017, as President Nicolás Mad- Russia, not the government and but also more brittle. And the to quash Kurdish aspirations for compromise here. efforts of the crown prince to the Trump administration’s two sify. The new US strategy raises the tempo There are countervailing trends. uro’s government ran the country further certainly not the rebels. latter can only succeed if Russia, for independence or autonomy However, since his elevation to embark on a form of belated priorities in the region: the fight of operations against the Taliban insurgency. Europeans are defending the Iran into the ground while strengthening its politi- The opposition has not been the US and the EU, but also Iran, in Iraq, and at least Turkey is minister of defense in 2015 and nation-building in a state that, against terrorism, by whichever The aim, according to officials, is to halt nuclear deal. President Emman- PICTURE ALLIANCE/AP PHOTO cal grip. Expect the humanitarian crisis to totally defeated, but it has cer- Saudi Arabia, Turkey and smaller determined to prevent the emer- crown prince in 2017, Muham- since its inception, has defined definition, and a rollback, as it

the Taliban’s momentum and force it into PICTURE ALLIANCE/PHOTOSHOT uel Macron is testing the reach of deepen in 2018 as GDP continues to con- tainly lost the war. Armed oppo- but more aggressive players like gence of a contiguous zone along mad bin Salman has been the driv- itself in religious terms more than were, of Iran. a political settlement. However, insurgents French diplomacy. International tract. In November, Venezuela defaulted sition groups have largely been Qatar, actively supported it. the Syrian-Turkish border, which ing force behind a highly assertive in national terms. It is small wonder that Saudi, control or contest more territory than at consensus on climate change has on part of its international debt; sanctions relegated to four de-escalation Moreover, the Syria conflict would be dominated by the PYD and strongly anti-Iranian regional Emirate, Israeli and other regional any time since 2001, are better equipped held firm. Perhaps other actors will make debt restructuring nigh impos- areas. Altogether, opposition-held remains linked to the second (the sister organization of Tur- policy. This includes an utterly leaders are eager to inject the and can mount spectacular attacks – like can promote dialogue and defuse sible. Food shortages, a collapsed health territory accounts for less than 10 issue that defines current regional key’s banned PKK, or Kurdish destructive war in Yemen, which VOLKER PERTHES Trump administration’s more is director of the German those in Kabul in late January – that erode crises rather than exacerbate system and spiraling violent crime are per- percent of Syria’s total area. More dynamics: the Saudi-Iranian Workers Party). Add to this seems far from reaching either a Institute for International hardline stance on Iran into their confidence in the government. The US them. These seem slender reeds petuating the conditions for unrest. Expect than one-fifth of Syria remains struggle for regional hegemony. Ankara’s increasing lack of trust military resolution or a negotiated and Security Affairs own political projects. Other allies should keep lines of communication to the on which to rest our hopes but, the humanitarian crisis to deepen as GDP under the control of the Kurd- Both Riyadh and Tehran tend to with regard to the US, particularly settlement and may have encour- (SWP) and its executive of the US – particularly Turkey – insurgency open and explore a settlement as Crisis Group’s list of conflicts contracts. A presidential vote, due in 2018, ish PYD (Party of Democratic see the other as the main com- since Washington made the PYD aged much of the Iranian presence chairman of the board. have become more skeptical of a with regional powers. For now, however, in 2018 shows, they are for now appears unlikely to offer a way out. The weak Union), which is less interested petitor for regional leadership and its main military partner in Syria. and influence the Saudi leadership US approach that seems to put President of downfall: Nicolás Trump’s statements suggest that is unlikely. the only reeds we have. Venezuelan state will continue providing in who rules Damascus than how thus a threat. While Turkey’s recent military claims to be fighting there. Simi- military considerations of expe- Maduro. The stage is set for further civilian sufferin Peace mission: policeman in Kabul. opportunities for money laundering, drug much autonomy it can achieve for Saudi Arabia remains the main incursion into the northern Syrian larly, the Saudi leadership may These efforts include the diency above alliance consider- trafficking and people smuggling, further Syria’s majority-Kurdish areas in sponsor of the Syrian opposition, district of Afrin was driven by have helped Iran to strengthen its attempt to mobilize younger ations. By de-emphasizing diplo- ROBERT MALLEY disquieting Venezuela’s neighbors already the north. and Iran the main regional backer the long-held goal of degrading reputation in Lebanon by trying generations and to reform the macy and making rash policy such is president and CEO of the facing an exodus of Venezuelans. Only sus- Most of the relevant regional of Assad. Tehran is unlikely to and ideally eliminating PYD con- to force Lebanon’s Prime Minister country’s society and economy International Crisis Group. tained domestic and international pressure and international players tend cede its enormous political invest- trol over this isolated Kurdish Saad Hariri to resign under rather under a wide-ranging “Vision – as well as immunity guarantees – could to agree that the end of the war ment in Syria, its strong influence enclave on the western edge of murky circumstances while in a 2030” program, which aims to Continued on page 18 push the government toward compromise. against IS provides an opportu- on the government and security the Turkish-Syrian border, it was TV studio in Riyadh. prepare Saudi Arabia for a less 18 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 19

SECURITY CHALLENGES SECURITY CHALLENGES

Continued from page 17 Bismarck would blush Kurds Divided as the recognition of Jerusalem as The Kurdish parties are divided into two opposing international networks: Turkey the Marxist-leaning Turkish PKK and the nationalist PDK in Iraq. Iran Israel’s capital, Trump has been PKK undermining the America’s role (Kurdistan Workers‘ Party) PJAK as the ultimate mediator, which Allied with: - (Kurdistan Free Life Party) almost all regional states have Ostensible troop strength: Allied with: - HPG / approx. 40,000 relied upon irrespective of Wash- Ostensible troop strength: Problems with the neighbors Adversary: Turkey YRK / approx. 3,000 ington’s never-hidden pro-Israeli Governing: no Adversary: Iran bent. Considered terrorist organization in: Governing: no Russia, in contrast, seems to Erdoğan wanted Turkey to embrace its Western and Arab allies. Now he’s tied to Putin EU, US, Turkey Considered terrorist organization in: have learned something from Iran, Turkey, US previous US-policy books for the Middle East, particularly in presenting itself as an inter- TURKEY locutor for all while making no IRAN secret of its strategic interests. It BY CAN DÜNDAR is cooperating with Iran to stabi- lize the Assad government, but Afrin Self-proclaimed Demo- also received the Saudi monarch ecep Tayyip Erdoğan cratic Federation of Northern Syria (DFNS), Autonomous commonly known as Rojava Kurdish area in Iraq before even Washington had. It came to power in 2002 Iran is Syria’s most important mili- with a commitment to GUNEEV/SPUTNIK/DPA SERGEY R SYRIA PDKI tary ally yet continues to demon- full membership of the EU. His (Democratic Party of Iranian strate its excellent relationship then Foreign Minister Ahmet Kurdistan) to Israel, not least through the Davutoğlu initially endeavored IRAQ Allied with: well-publicized visit of its defense to deliver on his promise of Mediterranean Iraq Saudi Arabia? Ostensible troop strength: minister to Tel Aviv. There have “zero problems with neighbors,” Sea KNC Several thousand Kurdish National Council Iraq even been suggestions that Russia making advances to Armenia Adversary: Iran Syria Allied with: may be acceptable as a mediator and the Kurds of Northern Iraq PDK Governing: no Turkey (Kurdistan Democratic Party) on Jerusalem. And whereas the while promoting commerce with PYD Considered terrorist organization in: Ostensible troop strength: Allied with: (Democratic Union Party) Iran US has been ignoring – at least in Russia. On the back of amicable KNC peshmerga / US, EU, Israel, Turkey Allied with: approx. 3,000 Ankara’s eyes – some of Turkey’s breezes blowing between Greece Ostensible troop strength: US main national security priorities, and Turkey, attempts to engineer Adversary: PYD, Syria PDK peshmerga, Ostensible troop strength: Russia has been able to restore a a solution to Cyprus accelerated. Governing: no Iraq government peshmerga / YPG / approx. 50,000 Considered terrorist organization in: approx. 110,000 relationship that was on the verge Radical legislative steps were Adversary: Turkey, Ahrar - PUK Adversary: of war in 2015. taken to facilitate the EU acces- al-Sham, FSA, IS, Syria, Kurdish (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) Iraq, Iran National Council (KNC) Moscow may not come across sion process and close relations Allied with: Governing: yes Governing: yes as a benign actor. The brazen were forged with Syria’s Assad. Ethnic groups US, Iran, Iraq Considered terrorist organization in: Considered terrorist organization in: Ostensible troop strength: - announcement by Russia’s min- All this took place in the first six Shiites Sunnis - PUK peshmerga, istry of defense that the Rus- years of Erdoğan’s rule. Alawites Christians approx. 60,000 sian military had used the war Serious cracks in his diplomatic Adversary: PDK Druzes in Syria to test “more than 160 course first appeared in 2009. Governing: no TURKEY IRAN modern and prospective types” Turkey faced the Islamic world Considered terrorist organization in: Predominantly Kurds - of weaponry will certainly be seen in the East. Forsaking its centu- SYRIA as utterly cynical by members of ries-old westward direction and IRAQ Syria’s opposition. Russia may abandoning Atatürk’s principle Predominantly Kurdish population appear as a brute – but it is a brute of “Peace at home, peace in the with a plan both to end the war world,” it embarked upon an in Syria and to broaden its reach adventurous path of advancing across the region. Turkish influence. No longer In contrast, while militarily would Turkey preserve the status spearheading the anti-IS coalition, quo. The result was a friendless Downward Kurdish momentum Washington has become some- Turkey that soon ran aground. what of a diplomatic bystander The first indication of this in the region. In 2015 and 2016, change was Erdoğan walking Turkey seeks to destroy Kurdish self-government in Syria – but it just might achieve the opposite effect US Secretary of State John Kerry out of the 2009 Davos Confer- and the Russian Foreign Minis- ence after accusing the Israel of ter Sergei Lavrov co-chaired four President Shimon Peres of being ministerial meetings of the Inter- experts in killing. Mesmerized by national Syria Support Group, the reverberations of his name on BY MICHAEL MARTENS at least from a Turkish perspec- what can be described as the polar Without the Kurds, the fight For precisely these reasons, And yet, whether or not which helped launch the UN-led Arab streets, Erdoğan indulged in tive. Indeed, it would mean that opposite of any concept of social against IS would most likely con- Moscow has always used Kurdish Turkey will profit in the long intra-Syrian talks in Geneva and dreams of transforming Turkey the autonomous Kurdish regions organization to which Erdoğan tinue to rage today. Washington political aspirations to increase its term from the Afrin operation is succeeded in establishing a first into a major power in the Islamic he Turkish invasion of the in northern Iraq, which are able to would subscribe, especially with also sees the Kurdish territories political influence in the region. questionable. In the short term, short-lived cessation-of-hostili- world. Kurdish canton of Afrin export their oil only via Turkish regard to issues like the quota as a buffer zone against the influ- The Syrian Kurds were even the offensive has strengthened ties. In 2017, the US was content The 2010 Israeli commando Thas added yet another territory, would theoretically gain system designed to encourage the ence of Iran. This is the point at permitted – much to the con- Erdoğan in the domestic arena. with its observer status in the raid on the MV Mavi Marmara, facet to the proxy war in Syria. sea access independent of Turkey participation of women in public which the interests of Ankara and sternation of Turkey – to open a Turkey is currently experienc- Russian-led Astana talks. Even the lead vessel in an aid convoy to The Turkish army and its Arab – a true nightmare for Ankara. life, decentralized structures and Washington intersect, as both quasi-diplomatic representative ing a phase of war hysteria. In America’s new Syria policy, as Gaza, resulted in the death of ten auxiliaries are now fighting As early as February 2016, then the subordinate role accorded to countries are highly suspicious mission in Moscow. Neverthe- fact, anyone who refuses to join laid out by Secretary of State Til- activists; Erdoğan immediately against Syrian Kurds in north- Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Islam in Afrin. Approaches such of Teheran’s military and finan- less, Russia, which has deployed in becomes automatically suspi- lerson in January 2018, has con- severed relations with Jerusalem. western Syria. However, events Davutoğlu warned: “Turkey’s as these are alien to Erdoğan. cial involvement and the Iranian- its S-400 missile defense system cious. Nonetheless, it will most firmed the military’s lead on Syria. The Arab Spring of 2011 might in the area involve the interests of position is clear: The YPG will not Instead, Turkey is trying to export supported fighters in Syria. In in Syria and controls the airspace likely be hard for Turkey to find It calls for an open-ended US have been just the opportunity at least four other actors, namely pass to the west of the Euphrates the image of the Islamic Turkish Turkey, however, mistrust of the in the north of the country all the even partially influential collab- military presence in the country he was looking for; but he soon Washington, Moscow, Tehran River and the east of Afrin.” The ruling party (AKP) to Syria. In Kurds surpasses such misgivings, way to the Euphrates, has given orators in Afrin. Instead, Kurd- even after the defeat of IS, mainly found himself out of favor in the and the regime of Bashar al- first Turkish campaign in Syria – to deny an expansion of Iranian Muslim world as the uprising was Assad. Ankara had announced an Operation Euphrates Shield lasted influence, but shows no ambition quashed, and he realized he had attack on Afrin Canton years ago from August 2016 to March 2017 to reassume a lead political role fallen out with the Syrian, Iraqi and the assault was in the works – was designed to drive an Arab

with regard to Syria’s future. and Egyptian regimes. there for months. The policy also wedge between the eastern Kurd- PICTURE ALLIANCE / AA Observers may be forgiven for The Syrian leader, his “brother represented a break in Turkey’s ish cantons and Afrin; and it suc- seeing similarities between this Assad” for so long, had all at original approach to Syria. When ceeded in doing just that. The goal lesser US role and the position once become his “foe Esed.” In the Syrian civil war broke out of the second campaign is now the EU has occupied for quite 2012, as Erdoğan mentioned in spring 2011, Recep Tayyip to replace the Kurdish admin- some time, minus the prepared- “praying at the Umayyad Mosque Erdoğan – then prime minister istration in Afrin with a leader- ness to dump substantial amounts in Damascus,” Turkey’s parlia- of Turkey – waivered briefly, but ship that does Ankara’s bidding. of money into regional schemes. ment resounded with exclama- then made a decisive turn away Turkey officially insists that its It is yet unclear whether the EU, tions of “reaching Damascus in It took two apologies for coup attempt in July 2016. His of “Nazism,” the Germans with- suspended all visa applications from Assad, his former favored attack is not aimed at the Kurds, most probably under French lead- three hours.” Thus did Ankara Yıldırım to solve two crises. First, declaration of a state of emer- drew their forces from İncirlik. by Turkish passport holders. The partner. Erdoğan announced that arguing that its real goal is to ership, would be able to fill some embroil itself in the swamp at its the five-year rift with Israel was gency and his subsequent regime An inauspicious start with coup de grâce was US National removing Assad would now be his defeat the PYD, which is closely of the diplomatic void created by southern flank. It shipped weap- settled when Jerusalem apolo- of oppression effectively burned Trump was soon to follow. Tur- Security Advisor H.R. McMas- main goal; Ankara also claimed affiliated to the PKK and thus America’s absence in the region; ons to Syrian rebels in order to gized for the sinking of the Mavi al bridges with Europe. The key’s demand to extradite Fethul- ter’s condemnation of Turkey and Assad to be the worst of all evils deemed a terror organization. But given the habit of Middle East topple the regime in Damascus Marmara and paid reparations. European Parliament promptly lah Gülen was refused, which Qatar as the new sponsors of and his rule the root cause of all this is only half the story at best. leaders to balance their external and unseat the increasingly more Next, Turkey apologized to recommended, and acted upon, led to Erdoğan accusing the US radical ideology. other terrorist threats. In summer It is true that the PYD is closely relations rather than leave the powerful YPG in northern Syria, Putin, thereby resolving the suspending negotiations. of engineering the coup attempt Cast adrift as a result of his 2012, however, something hap- linked to the PKK in terms of politics and diplomacy to one opened the borders to jihadists break with the West, Erdoğan pened in the Syrian theater of war ideology and personnel. In the of the great powers, it is likely and turned a blind eye to the rise proved easy pickings for Putin. that Ankara had not expected; the 1980s, then Syrian ruler Hafez there would be takers for such a of IS cells in big cities. This traffic Moscow invited Ankara – along regime in Damascus largely with- al-Assad permitted PKK leader European role. intensified further in the refugee FOREIGN POLICY DRIVEN BY with Tehran – to the table to drew its troops from its Kurdish Abdullah Öcalan to wage his war flood of 2014. discuss solutions to Syria. In its areas in the north – troops it against the Turkish state from a Next came the big crisis with UNREALISTIC IDEOLOGY AND loneliest hour, Turkey was turn- badly needed in other parts of base in Syria. During this time, the the big neighbor. In 2015, Turkey ing to its traditional enemy to the country. The Kurdish Demo- PKK gained a lot of momentum downed a Russian fighter jet for CHAUVINIST POSTURING HAS the north. Erdoğan’s recent deci- cratic Union Party (PYD) and its from Syrian Kurds, in particular allegedly violating Turkish air- sion to purchase Russian S-400 armed People’s Protection Units in Afrin. It is also true that the Battle ready: Turkish soldiers before departing from their battalion within the Turkish Armed Forces' Operation Olive Branch to Afrin on Feb. 6, 2018, in Siirt, Turkey. space. Putin promptly instructed defense missiles could easily signal (YPG) subsequently took power PYD is a Syrian offshoot of the Russian tourists to steer clear of SUDDENLY LEFT ANKARA WITH a departure from NATO. there, proclaiming three Kurdish PKK. However, two other facts other words, Turkish tanks are especially as their interests inter- the green light to Turkey’s Oper- ish terrorism will undoubtedly Turkey and halted imports of Stuck in a quagmire in Syria, cantons: Jazira and Kobanî in the serve to considerably weaken also carrying Erdoğan’s ideas with sect with those of Iran in this case; ation Olive Branch. For Moscow, gain new momentum. Indeed, for Turkish foodstuffs. The cost to COUNTLESS ENEMIES without a single friend in the east and Afrin in the northwest. the Turkish argument. First, the them. This means that a country indeed, Iran also has a Kurdish the Turkish offensive has two at least five decades, Turkey has Turkey was some $10 billion. West and unsuccessful in secur- Since that moment, Ankara’s goal Syrian Kurds – unlike the PKK – only recently praised as a demo- minority, and Tehran sees the advantages. First, it exacerbates learned the bloody and recurring Foreign policy driven by unrealis- ing Trump’s backing, Erdoğan of bringing down Assad has been never carried out attacks on rep- cratic model for the Middle East suppression of any efforts by the the long-smoldering conflict lesson that the terror carried out tic ideology and chauvinist postur- seven-month conflict. Ankara Strains with Germany, one and supporting terrorism by is going all in with Putin. As a increasingly overshadowed by resentatives of the Turkish state. has now become an exporter of Kurds to form self-government between Ankara and Washing- by the Kurds and Kurdish aspira- ing had suddenly left Ankara with backtracked from its earlier deter- of Turkey’s oldest allies, soon arming the PYD. Relations were reward, the Russian president has the fear of a “Kurdish threat.” Second, statements by Turkish autocracy. as one of its many raisons d’état. ton; indeed, Russia would never tions for self-government cannot countless enemies. His “zero prob- mination to oust Assad – Turkey’s followed; a German delegation so strained by the arrest of US opened Syrian air space to Turk- Given the prospect of a perma- politicians have made it clear that Turkey is also eager to gener- In a certain sense, the Kurds are pass up an opportunity to deepen be repressed simultaneously in lems with neighbors” had led to third policy change in five years. was denied access to İncirlik Air Embassy officials on charges of ish forces engaged in the Afrin nently Kurdish-controlled region their goal is not only the dissolu- ate a factsheet for a regional the only link between Ankara, the rift between two NATO part- the long term. Turkish politi- the opposite dynamic: “problems Erdoğan would now cozy up to Base in response to the German supporting Gülen that the US operation that began in Janu- in the north of Syria, Assad was tion of PYD/YPG rule in Afrin, post-war order. In this sphere, Tehran, Baghdad and Damascus ners. Second, a Turkish attack on cians have been threatening for with every neighbor.” It was time Moscow and fall in line with Bundestag’s official recognition ary. However, a potential clash downgraded from Turkey’s main but indeed the abolishment of any however, it comes up against – nobody wants to give the Kurds Afrin might possibly drive the years that they will never permit for a volte-face, and a scapegoat. Putin in Syria. of the Armenian genocide. Ger- between Ankara and Washington, enemy to a second-tier menace. form of Kurdish self-government a complicated web of strategic anything. distressed Kurds back into the the emergence of a “terror cor- Davutoğlu was forced to resign in Entente with Moscow is many granted asylum to Turkish CAN DÜNDAR the sponsors of Syrian Kurds, What Ankara now feared most whatsoever, no matter who is interests held by the other play- arms of Russia’s protégé Assad. ridor” in Syria. However, Tur- 2016. Settling into the chair still partly attributable to Erdoğan officers involved in the July 15, was editor-in-chief of the would have only one winner: was that the Kurds would be able in charge. Ankara’s approach is ers involved in Syria. The United Divide NATO and strengthen key’s intervention in Afrin might Turkish daily newpaper warm from his predecessor, the losing patience with the West. 2016, coup attempt; the Turk- Cumhuriyet. His article Moscow. to establish a land connection motivated by a desire to avoid a States was previously allied with MICHAEL MARTENS Assad – in Moscow’s zero-sum just have the opposite effect; it new Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım Despite the apparent thaw in the ish Intelligence Agency increased about Turkish arms Meanwhile, Erdoğan finds him- between the two cantons in the repeat of the “first sin” of Kurd- the Syrian Kurds. Indeed, the is a correspondent for logic, this would be a double vic- may lead to the creation of pre- asserted: “We shall increase the wake of the 2016 refugee deal its activities; and Erdoğan was deliveries to the Islamic self in a struggle to transform east and Afrin in the west. If the ish autonomy as it exists in Iraq. YPG was the Americans' most Southeast Europe and tory. In the meantime, the Kurds cisely such a “terror corridor.” number of our friends and decrease between Turkey and the EU, ultimately prevented from cam- State earned him an the risky war he has embarked Kurds also succeeded in gaining The conflict also has an ideolog- effective ground force in the fight Turkey at the German would once again be made to feel That is, of course, if Turkey daily newspaper the number of our enemies.” Erdoğan raised the temperature paigning for his referendum in indictment for alleged upon in Syria into a step that access to the Mediterranean from ical component that is often over- against the Islamic State, which, that they are nothing more than continues its attempt to combat espionage. He is now Frankfurter Allgemeine Ankara had once again adopted a of his anti-Western polemic once the Federal Republic. After he living in exile in Germany. will elevate his presidency on the Afrin, it would jeopardize the bal- looked: The sociopolitical model until last year, was considered Zeitung. small change in the grand barter- this possibility by military means more pragmatic diplomacy. again, blaming the US for the accused the Berlin government domestic front. ance of power in the Middle East, of the Kurds in Afrin represents the greatest threat in the region. ing system of the major powers. alone. 20 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 21

SECURITY CHALLENGES SECURITY CHALLENGES Home-made weaponry

Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates are planning a massive boost to domestic weapons production by 2030

China. For 2018, $56 billion is coming to an end. This shift in BY MARKUS BICKEL earmarked for the armaments military thinking was accelerated budget. In view of the ongoing by the refusal of then-US Presi- he goal is ambitious. operations in Yemen, this sum dent Barack Obama to intervene Saudi Arabian Military will almost certainly be exceeded, militarily in Syria, even after the T Industries (SAMI) will as it was the previous year. The government’s poison gas attacks create 40,000 new jobs by 2030. kingdom wants that money to on opposition-held areas in Sep- And that’s not all: The new benefit its own economy in the tember 2014. state-owned defense contractor near future; by 2030, the goal Only by expanding their own would produce half of the Saudi is for SAMI to generate annual industries can the two major forces’ weapons requirements by revenue of 14 billion riyals, or powers of the Gulf Coopera- the end of the next decade. The $3.7 billion. tion Council (GCC) assert their Saudi Kingdom, which of late What applies to Saudi Arabia leadership in the Islamic Mili- has made headlines primarily also applies to Riyadh’s main ally tary Counter Terrorism Coalition through vast imports of state- in the fight against IS and Iran: (IMCTC), founded last year and of-the-art weaponry, plans to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). headquartered in Riyadh. Thirty- start exporting to all parts of In the wake of the US military’s nine other, mostly Muslim states the world. Most recently, on a creeping retreat from the region, have since joined the alliance, visit to Riyadh in May 2017, the crown princes known in the which is all but certain to inten- US President Donald Trump and Arab world as MBS (Mohammed sify its collaborative efforts in the King Salman bin Saud agreed bin Salman) and MBZ (Moham- medium term. on contracts and memoranda of med bin Bayed) have been work- To be sure, the rich Arab Gulf understanding worth $110 bil- ing to overhaul their import- States cannot do without technol- lion in arms sales. dependent economies before the ogy transfer from the West for However, if the ambitious oil era ends. In both countries, the foreseeable future, despite all 32-year-old Crown Prince Agenda 2030 is the name of the their efforts towards autonomy. Mohammed bin Salman has his program to massively expand and Part of the SAMI strategy is thus way, transactions such as these diversify local industry, including to expand through joint ventures will soon be a thing of the past. defense technology. with foreign defense companies. The new boss in Riyadh plans to The UAE is already ahead of Deals with arms giants Boeing, make SAMI one of the world’s Saudi Arabia in the development Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and top 25 defense contractors by of an independent defense indus- General Dynamics were penned PICTURE ALLIANCE/LAURIN SCHMID/SOS Refugees from Libya are one of Europe's most pressing political challenges: But both terrorism and uncontrolled migration are symptoms of broader problems stemming from the lack of a functioning Libyan state. FOTOLIA 2030. But in view of the aggres- try. Over the past five years, Abu last year. During a visit to sive foreign policy pursued by Dhabi’s leadership has invested Moscow in autumn 2017, SAMI the kingdom – itself threatened an average of $23.4 billion in Chairman Ahmed Al-Khatib by Islamic State terrorist attacks defense. In 2005, that figure was agreed to projects with Russian – following the death of King only $9.4 billion. Since 2014, arms giant Rosoboronexport. Abdullah in 2015, this is a head- the Emirates Defense Industries To ensure lasting access to BY SILVIA COLOMBO Terrorism and uncontrolled long rush. Company (EDIC) has com- Western expertise, SAMI hired AND NATHALIE TOCCI migration are two very different The rearmament is the conse- prised a powerful coalition of Andreas Schwer as its new CEO symptoms of broader problems IRAN quence of the worsening rivalry domestic companies that now in December 2017. His previ- stemming from the prolonged with Iran over regional hege- produces munitions with more ous employer, Düsseldorf-based aking sense of Libya (Tri)poli-sci lack of a functioning Libyan mony; with well over 7,000 heavy or less autonomy. The biennial Rheinmetall Defense, has been through the lens of the state. Filling this gap is only weapons systems each, the coun- Abu Dhabi International Defence Mnation state was never Squaring the triangle of security, migration possible through a constitu- tries are more or less at parity. Exhibition & Conference (IDEX) easy. This has been all the more tion, national reconciliation and SO FAR AWAY The Saudi arsenal is, however, has become one of the world’s MARKUS BICKEL true since 2011 when the country and state-building in Libya elections. In addition, Libya’s far more modern. But for Israel, major arms exhibitions. In 2019, is editor-in-chief of Amnesty plunged into chaos and violence, European partners should dem- their military is the best equipped organizers expect more than a Journal. From 2012 to 2015 Western allies continue their search for the right way he was based in Cairo as triggering seven years of multi- onstrate that they care about the in the region. At $12.7 billion, thousand producers from over Middle East correspondent layered intra-state conflicts, future of the country through to handle the Islamic Republic Iran’s military expenditure is only 50 countries. for the Frankfurter the proliferation of non-state believe that Libya can meet the as a logistical hub for launch- This has created an irresistible institutions the international com- the meaningful broadening of one-fifth that of the Saudis. The 56-year-old heir to the Allgemeine Zeitung. His actors, external interference and technical, legislative, political as ing terrorist attacks in Europe or temptation for European politi- munity claims to support. their footprint and their engage- But Saudi resources are not throne, Mohammed bin Zayed, book Die Profiteure des regional rivalries. The outcome well as security conditions to go elsewhere in North Africa and the cal leaders, notably Italy’s no- In parallel, the international ment with Libya beyond security unlimited, especially given the is driving the UAE’s independent Terrors – Wie Deutschland has been the disintegration of the to the polls. Trapped between an Middle East. Against this back- nonsense Interior Minister Marco community, with Italy at the fore- cooperation and the management main threats to the US National A US withdrawal from the deal shortfalls in revenue result- arms sector. The wealthy gulf an Kriegen verdient und BY CORNELIUS ADEBAHR arabische Diktaturen Libyan state in all but name. unclear sequencing of political drop, stabilizing Libya is rightly Minniti, to seek the cooperation front, has sought to strengthen of migration. Addressing the Security Strategy adopted in mid- would not only reopen the nuclear ing from low oil prices. In the state’s military entanglements stärkt (The Profiteers of But rather than targeting efforts goals and ongoing instability on viewed as imperative. of a wide range of local actors the capacities of Libyan security ongoing humanitarian crisis in December 2017. There is little issue, but also give hardliners in long run, the kingdom cannot have not slowed the trend. In the Terror – How Germany on (re)constituting state institu- the ground, the renewed dialogue However, the lack of national in Libya in pursuit of stop-gap forces – most notably the Libyan the country, particularly in the he violent unrest in many doubt that he wishes to be the Iran a welcome reason to put fight the costly wars it is waging war against IS in Syria and Iraq, makes money through tions and governance with a view process in Libya has witnessed institutions in the country cou- measures. Coast Guard – with a view to south, is a key priority for the Iranian cities took offi- president “overseeing” regime down domestic dissent. The cred- while spending many more bil- the Emirati Air Force has flown war and strengthens Arab to achieving sustainable stability, scant concrete action as of late. pled with the sense of urgency The significant drop in the stemming migration flows. While Libyan people. Tcials and foreign observ- change in Iran, even if it were ibility of international diplomacy lions on arms imports. Neither in more missions than any other dictatorships) was published most external interventions have By contrast, genuine action posed by the terrorist threat has number of migrants reaching a coast guard may be one feature Enforcing security and control- ers by surprise. It stemmed not orchestrated by Washington would be severely undermined, Yemen, where the Saudi Air Force country involved in Operation by Westend-Verlag in 2017. focused almost exclusively on has marked the security and led the international community Italy along the Central Mediter- of a functioning state, it is hardly ling migration should not be the from the pent-up frustration of but by “the great Iranian people” with consequences for other and ground forces are directly Inherent Resolve, with the excep- security and migration control. migration dossiers. Europeans and regional players to bypass ranean route in the second half the first institution to consider only two lenses through which regular people in the provinces (Trump on Twitter). hotspots such as North Korea involved in the conflict, nor indi- tion of the US. Moreover, UAE These two issues unquestionably are increasingly concerned that national authorities in engag- of 2017 – with an 83 percent in the context of genuine state- Libya is viewed and approached. over unemployment, price hikes Yet Trump has held back for and America’s global rivalry with rectly in Syria is an end to the pilots have repeatedly attacked working to internationalize its affect European interests at their following the territorial defeat ing directly with local non-state reduction in August arrivals in building efforts. Doing so not only means relegat- and corruption, while the world now, if only – and this is the second China and Russia. fighting in sight. jihadist positions in Libya, 4,000 defense portfolio for years. Since core. But the myopic way they of the Islamic State in Iraq and actors – including militias – as Italy compared to the previous In a fragmented context such ing the country to a future of focused more on Iran’s increas- point – to issue a stern ultima- As the nuclear deal’s lead nego- To terminate this dependency kilometers away. 2012, Schwer had headed Rhe- have been addressed risks jeop- Syria, Libya will become the pri- a more effective way of deliver- year – has been the result of the as Libya, the local level cannot state implosion and perpetual ing regional might and the uncer- tum to America’s allies to change tiator, what can the EU do now? – particularly on the US – bin And in Yemen, 4,000 soldiers inmetall’s combat systems divi- ardizing the very construction of mary safe haven for terrorists ing short-term security. Doing co-option of militias previously be ignored. But the perceived conflict; it also means – para- tain state of the nuclear deal. course. The Europeans are ada- The Europeans have thus far Salman is relying on a home- from the Emirates, including sion – a growth sector, not least a sustainable Libyan state. fleeing the ranks of the IS after so has delegitimized those fragile enmeshed in the smuggling and urgency of dealing with terror- doxically – that both terrorism The relative calm inside the mant to preserve the nuclear deal been looking for a way to stop grown solution. His goal is to for- 1,500 special forces, constitute the because of the wars on the Ara- Since September 2017, UN the fall of Mosul and Raqqa. national institutions the interna- trafficking business. This co- ism and the so-called migration and uncontrolled migration will country has given way to a precisely for its ability to block Washington from withdrawing tify Saudi Arabia’s own military- most significant ground force of bian Peninsula. Special Envoy Ghassan Salamé Indeed, Libya is an obvious des- tional community in principle option has taken the form of crisis has led to a disproportionate remain European challenges for domestic quarrel over how to Iran’s path to the bomb – an analy- and not to jeopardize their devel- has launched a new round of the tination for such groups given its supports and empowered further cash incentives to local elites and empowerment of such local forces many years to come. respond to the hitherto unknown sis they share with the Russians oping relations with Iran. This Libyan political dialogue process. condition of “limited statehood” local actors. In other words, the militias, offering them – and the at the outright expense of central outburst of anti-regime sentiment and Chinese as well as with the was a difficult diplomatic feat The roadmap guiding this work and its hosting of jihadist groups pursuit of short-term security population they cater to – less state institutions. Any strategy among ordinary people, who are majority of international experts. even before the recent unrest is centered on three goals: achiev- made up of indigenous people risks jeopardizing the strategic illicit forms of livelihood. of co-option tends to empower SILVIA COLOMBO generally considered the Islamic While they have concerns over and Trump’s four-month ulti- ing a new constitution, foster- and foreigners. goal of state-building in Libya, Minniti does not deny the short- certain groups at the expense is head of the Republic’s conservative bulwark. the country’s regional policy, they matum. The US has now added PICTURE ALLIANCE / AP PHOTO ing national reconciliation and One need only recall the case of which is critical to long-term term benefit of such forms of coop- of others, thus fueling further Mediterranean and Middle Today, almost 40 years after the see Tehran as a key player in the insult to injury. The measures holding elections. While there is the Islamic State in Libya, whose security in Libya, Europe and eration, which may be necessary confrontation. The fight against East Program at IAI. 1979 Revolution, is a water- Middle East that must be engaged demanded from the Europeans little clarity about the timing and activities have picked up again the entire region. to diffuse the perceived crisis and jihadist terrorism and the man- NATHALIE TOCCI shed moment for both politics in rather than isolated. The EU thus would not only render even a sequencing of these goals, holding only a year after Sirte’s liberation The case of migration presents thus hopefully create the politi- agement of migration are unim- is director of the Istituto Tehran and transatlantic policy aims to open the country through limited partnership with the Ira- elections by September 2018 has in early December 2016. At the a similar paradox. The perceived cal conditions for more structural peachable goals. Yet pursuing Affari Internazionali (IAI), towards Iran. economic exchanges and to involve nians impossible, they would also honorary professor at the become the new mantra among regional level, around 25,000 to migration crisis in Europe, and long-term measures. Alas, the them in a hyped and securitized As it turned out, rather than it in regional conflict resolution. violate explicit provisions of the University of Tübingen Libyan politicians and interna- 30,000 foreign jihadist fighters are most acutely in Italy with its dis- reverse may well occur, with the political and media climate has and special adviser killing the 2015 nuclear deal out- However, America’s persistent agreement. tional players. expected to seek their way home, proportionate exposure to irregu- empowering of local militias for minimized space for a meaningful to EU HRVP Federica right, a reluctant President Donald questioning of the deal has already To avoid risking further trans- Nevertheless, in light of the with Libya representing both an lar flows, has elevated migration the sake of migration control fur- Europe-backed, UN-led transition Mogherini. Trump threw it another lifeline by undermined the position of the atlantic alienation at a time of persisting violence, few genuinely appealing transit country as well control to a top policy priority. ther debilitating those national and reconciliation process. again suspending important US West (i.e. France, Germany, the global insecurity, the Europeans sanctions for another 120 days. United Kingdom, the EU and the will seek a face-saving compro- However, in the same breath he United States) vis-à-vis the other mise. A solution could evolve handed his European allies an signatories (China, Russia and around stricter EU measures ultimatum: Work with him to Iran itself). Trump purposefully against Iranian missiles in return confront Iran’s “malign activi- conflates the deal’s core bargain for a US reaffirmation of the 2015 ties” by cutting off funding to – roughly speaking, a substantive deal. Yet the EU can never be the Islamic Revolutionary Guard rollback and continuous inspec- certain whether Trump is open Corps, designating the Lebanese tion of Iran’s nuclear program in to a way out of the impasse. “Frequently acts on the most high-profile cases of public interest” Hezbollah as a terrorist orga- return for the lifting of interna- More than ever US, Iran policy MBS and MBZ are arming the Gulf: Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates. [Europe’s Best Lawyers and Law Firms – Chambers and Partners] nization and constraining Iran’s tional economic sanctions – with is based on Washington politics, development and proliferation of Tehran’s growing regional power not on questions of transatlantic industrial complex – producing the anti-Iranian military alliance. Both in the Emirates and in LANSKY, GANZGER + partner is a Central European law firm bridging businesses, media and national and international political institutions. Native language experts, lawyers missiles – which in his eyes would projection. His argument is that partnership or even the facts on rockets, guided missiles, drones, The soldiers from Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia, the German arms and advisors from more than 20 nations bring the necessary skills to the table to solve a wide range of problems. Through its offices in Vienna (Austria), Bratislava (Slovakia), “fix the terrible flaws of the Iran the former has enabled the latter. the ground in Iran. ammunition and land vehicles are fighting not only against the contractor is doing good busi- Astana (Kazakhstan) and Baku (Azerbaijan), as well as by numerous partner firms in more than 50 countries, LGP is present throughout Europe and worldwide. The firm draws nuclear deal” – or he will with- Yet the opposite is actually true: Far beyond the questions of – in just over a decade, with Houthi rebels, who are supported ness. In 2016, Rheinmetall Denel draw the US from the deal when The deal, which Teheran has thus nuclear proliferation, regional SAMI spearheading the effort. militarily by Tehran, but also Munition (RDM) – a South Afri- on excellent ties in governmental networks within the European Union and CEE/SEE as well as in CIS/Central Asia and provides clients with the capacity to work across the next sanctions waiver is due far strictly observed according to security and human rights, the "The company will seek to be a against members of al-Qaeda on can joint venture – completed a several jurisdictions in a wide range of fields. in mid-May. the International Atomic Energy dispute over the correct approach key catalyst," said Salman in the the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). munitions factory on the prem- Trump’s early tweets in sup- Agency (IAEA) entrusted with to Iran is a palpable – and rather spring of 2017 on the occasion of UAE, which gained independence ises of Saudi Arabia’s Military port of the Iranian demonstrators overseeing the agreement, has at frightening – symptom of tradi- SAMI’s founding, "to localize 50 from Britain only in 1971, has Industries Corporation (MIC) in LANSKY, Biberstrasse 5, A-1010 Vienna (Austria) (“Time for change”) led some to least reduced the nuclear threat. tional allies drifting apart. percent of total government mili- seen dozens of its solders killed Al Kharj, southeast of Riyadh. Its believe he would use the street tary spending by the year 2030." in Yemen. goal is the daily production of 300 GANZGER T: +43 1 533 33 300 protests as a justification for the In 2017, the defense budget Through their homegrown artillery and 600 mortar rounds + partner F : +43 1 532 84 83 immediate termination of sanc- – under direct control of the policy, the two mighty crown for the Saudi armed forces, but E: [email protected] www.lansky.at CORNELIUS ADEBAHR tions relief. He had forged an is an independent political analyst and consultant. He is aged King Salman’s favorite son princes could revolutionize how also for export. Arab-Israeli-American coalition a non-resident fellow at Carnegie Europe in Brussels and – reached just under $60 bil- the global defense industry does Ziel ist die Produktion von 300 ATTORNEYS AT LAW VIENNA BRATISLAVA BAKU ASTANA against Iran during his first trip an associate fellow of the German Council on Foreign lion, according to Jane’s Defense business in the long run; the prac- Artillerie- oder 600 Mörserge- abroad in May 2017. In this Relations in Berlin. He is the author of Europe and Iran: Industry. Only two states spent tice of Gulf Arabs using their oil schossen täglich. Für die sau- he declared Tehran, alongside The Nuclear Deal and Beyond (2017). more money on their armed forces wealth for arms purchases and dischen Streitkräfte. Aber auch Pyongyang, to be one of the two and new weapons: the US and investments in the West is slowly zum Export. 22 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 23

SECURITY CHALLENGES SECURITY CHALLENGES

01 MALI 11 AFGHANISTAN

The UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali and America’s new relationship to the world, China’s amplified international In August 2017, US President Donald Trump announced a new military missions led by G5 Sahel countries – Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, assertiveness, Russia’s claims to influence and the EU’s internal struggles strategy for the war in Afghanistan, deepening US involvement in the Mauritania and Niger – were deployed to combat extremism in the region Afghani government’s fight against the Taliban and terrorist groups. in April 2013. France is leading Operation Barkhane, having deployed have dominated headlines in 2017. Yet armed conflicts around the globe Unconfirmed reports cite plans to send an additional 4,000 troops to approx. 1,600 soldiers to protect civilians and aid local military efforts. Afghanistan, which will redefine success away from timetables and Over 13,000 peacekeepers are working in Mali on one of the UN’s most WARS OF THE WORLD have not vanished. Our status report reflects the multi-faceted state of toward a conditions-based approach yet to be elaborated. In June 2017, dangerous missions. Despite increased foreign involvement, some NATO vowed to increase troop levels under the ongoing Resolute militant groups still maintain control of areas in northern Mali. Other affairs with potential ramifications for all players on the international stage. Support Mission to train, advise and assist the Afghan National Defense militant groups have been driven across borders to territories outside the and Security Forces (ANDSF). In late January 2018 Taliban terrorists G5 Sahel mission’s mandate. In late January 2018, the UN threatened 09 Additional date compiled from the Council on Foreign Relations, the BBC and The New York Times conducted a series of attacks, killing more than 130 people in 10 days sanctions against individuals blocking the implementation of provisions 11 in Kabul. Afghan officials said they had expected the attacks to escalate of a 2015 peace agreement. The accord includes demobilization after the US had put pressure on Pakistan, long seen as supporting and reintegration of the warring parties, decentralization and the 12 Taliban insurgents as proxies in Afghanistan, and intensified the air establishment of a regional police force. campaign against the Taliban in the countryside. 02 03 09 LEBANON

ESTIMATED NUMBER OF MALIAN REFUGEES: 140,100 (UNHCR) 13 Lebanon has absorbed more than one million Syrian refugees since the US AID TO AFGHANISTAN: $18.8 BILLION (USAID) 14 start of the conflict in 2011. This equals nearly one-fourth of Lebanon’s population and more refugees than were accepted by any other 01 country bordering Syria. The World Bank predicts these refugees will 02 LIBYA 10 cost Lebanon close to $7.5 billion. The spillover from Syria has also 12+13 PAKISTAN AND INDIA heightened sectarian tensions in Lebanon. The divisions in the country have been exacerbated as IS battles with Hezbollah and other Shia Rising violence since the ouster and subsequent death of Muammar 04 08 Continued violence in Kashmir and looming terrorist activity by Pakistan- al-Qaddafi in October 2011 has stymied Libya’s attempts to rebuild groups in Lebanon. Hezbollah is deeply involved in Syria’s civil war, based militant groups have sustained the threat of serious military state institutions. The country’s secular-leaning Tobruk-based House 05 07 07 SOUTH SUDAN siding with the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. An estimated 1,200 confrontation between India and Pakistan. of Representatives (HoR) has tried to claim legitimacy as Libya’s main Hezbollah fighters have been killed in Syria since the start of the conflict. In September 2016, armed militants attacked a remote Indian Army base 04 NIGERIA In November 2015, IS targeted a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut, killing in Uri near the Line of Control, killing 18 soldiers in the deadliest attack authoritative power. The General National Congress (GNC) – initially A political struggle between Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, leading 43 and injuring over 200 in double suicide bomb attacks – the deadliest on the Indian armed forces in decades. Indian officials have blamed the tasked with writing a constitution after Qaddafi’s ouster – was voted out to Machar’s removal as vice president, triggered ethnic violence in since the end of Lebanon’s civil war in 1990. Hezbollah areas in southern attack on Pakistani militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad, which has alleged in August 2014. Yet the GNC reconstituted itself as a rival government in The Nigerian military – with assistance from Chad, Cameroon and 06 December 2013 between presidential guard soldiers belonging to the Beirut had been targeted in 2013 and 2014, but mostly by Sunni militants ties to the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s main intelligence agency. Tripoli, pulling together former GNC members and Islamist militias. Niger – has pushed Boko Haram out of a number of provinces in two largest ethnic groups in South Sudan. Soldiers from the Dinka ethnic opposing Hezbollah’s decision to join the fight in neighboring Syria. In response, the Indian military announced it had carried out “surgical In September 2014, HoR-appointee General Haftar of the Libyan northeastern Nigeria, but the group continues to launch deadly suicide group aligned with President Kiir while those from the Nuer ethnic group strikes” on terrorist camps inside Pakistani-controlled territory across the National Army (LNA) began attacking Islamist militant groups in attacks and wield considerable influence. While the conflict has been supported Machar. President Kiir announced that Machar had attempted Further complicating the situation, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri Line of Control. The Pakistani military denied that any such operation had Benghazi and called for the dissolution of the GNC. In response an primarily contained in the Muslim north, Nigeria’s intelligence agency a coup and violence spread quickly. Armed groups have targeted and temporarily resigned in November 2017, accusing Iran of plotting his taken place. alliance of Islamists and militias formed Libya Dawn. The conflict pits the has identified attempts to expand the group’s activities into Lagos and raped civilians along ethnic lines, destroyed property, looted villages and assassination. He then traveled to Saudi Arabia, where his stay drew Territorial disputes over the Kashmir region sparked two of the three Libya Dawn coalition, which controls Tripoli and much of western Libya, neighboring countries. Amnesty International reports that hundreds recruited children into their ranks. criticism from many who felt his hosts had manipulated the situation and major Indo-Pakistani wars in 1947 and 1965, and a limited war in 1999. against Haftar’s coalition. Haftar is a likely contender in potential national were killed by Boko Haram violence in Cameroon. South Sudan’s warring factions signed a ceasefire agreement in late were keeping him from returning. Hariri returned to Lebanon on Nov. 21 Tensions remain high between the neighboring countries, each with a elections at the end of 2018. Boko Haram has been trying since 2009 to establish an Islamic state December 2017, granting humanitarian access to conflict-affected and by early December had rescinded his resignation and returned to nuclear arsenal. In 2016, India and Pakistan temporarily expelled each in northeast Nigeria, from where it has launched attacks and suicide areas after negotiations in neighboring Ethiopia brokered by the power. other’s diplomats on charges of espionage, while an uptick in cross- bombings in Niger, Chad and Cameroon. Over 15,000 people have been Intergovernmental Authority on Development regional bloc. NUMBER OF COMPETING POWER CENTERS: 3 (ECFR) border firing along the Line of Control continued throughout 2017 and killed and millions displaced. In October 2017, Chad withdrew 2,000 In late January 2018, US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley announced ESTIMATED NUMBER OF REGISTERED REFUGEES: 1,012,969 into 2018, with military and civilian casualites on both sides. troops it had sent to Niger. In January 2018, Nigerian authorities insisted that the US is ceasing its support for President Kiir, calling him an (UNHCR) Boko Haram had been vanquished, yet the group’s fighters continu to “unfit partner” and urging the UN Security Council to support an arms 03 EGYPT attack military and civilian targets. embargo. AREA OF DISPUTED TERRITORY: 118, 950 SQUARE MILES (BBC) ESTIMATED DISPLACED PEOPLE IN THE LAKE CHAD BASIN: 2.3 Egypt’s military campaign against Wilayat Sinai (formerly Ansar Beit MILLION (UNHCR) ESTIMATED KILLINGS SINCE DECEMBER 2013: >50,000 (UN) 10 YEMEN al-Maqdis) in the Sinai Peninsula has intensified since it declared allegiance to IS in November 2014. In October 2015, Wilayat Sinai The intervention of regional powers in Yemen’s conflict – including Iran claimed responsibility for downing a Russian airplane in response to and Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia – threatens to draw the country 14 MYANMAR Russia’s fight against IS in Syria. The previous year, the group carried 05 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 06 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO 08 SOMALIA into the broader Sunni-Shia divide. The insurgency led by the Houthis, a out the largest terrorist attack in Egypt since 2005, killing 31 soldiers. Shiite rebel group with links to Iran, has pushed the country into further Violence and tensions between Buddhist and Muslim communities The intense military campaign led by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has The Union for Peace in the Central African Republic (UPC) of the Fulani At least 70 armed groups are believed to be operating in the eastern Although weakened in recent years, al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab turmoil. UN-brokered peace talks between allied Houthi rebels and the continue in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Hundreds of thousands of targeted the insurgency in Sinai and near the Gaza Strip. The military ethnic group and the Popular Front for the Renaissance (FPRC) of the region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Despite the stabilizing continues to dominate many rural southern and central areas of Somalia internationally recognized Yemeni government stalled in summer 2016. Rohingya have fled the country. After winning Myanmar’s first national has bulldozed hundreds of homes in Rafah on the border with Gaza, Gula and Runga ethnic communities are battling for control in the Ouaka presence of over 19,000 UN peacekeepers, the stronger militant groups with up to 9000 troops still remaining. The group killed hundreds of The Houthis ousted President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s government and election in more than 25 years, the National League for Democracy, suspecting that Hamas is arming the Sinai militants. Sisi has also sought and Haute-Koto prefectures. The conflict has left 60 percent of the in the region, e.g. the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia) soldiers in 2015 and 2016. announced the formation of a “political council” to govern the capital a party unofficially led by State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, has to clamp down on Muslim Brotherhood supporters, labeling the group country in poverty. Repeated attacks have been carried out against UN (FDLR) and the Ugandan Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), terrorize In January 2018, Somali and US commandos stormed an al-Shabaab Sanaa and much of northern Yemen. Fighting continues between moved slowly to address the status of the Rohingya people, who were a terrorist organization in December 2013. Egyptian security forces are peacekeepers and humanitarian workers, further undermining security. communities, control weakly governed areas of the country and finance camp, killing at least four of the fighters and rescuing child conscripts. rebels and the Saudi-backed government of President Abdu Rabbu not allowed to vote in the election. Myanmar and Bangladesh agreed also closely monitoring IS fighters returning from Syria and Iraq. They Fourteen UN peacekeepers were killed in 2017. Most armed groups, their activities by exploiting the country’s natural resources. The UN The US military carried out an airstrike that killed an additional four al- Mansour Hadi. Saudi Arabia, which has led a bombing campaign in in January 2018 to a two-year time frame for returning the displaced worry an influx of battle-hardened IS veterans could add new volatility to e.g. the anti-Balaka and FPRC forces, have ignored President Touadera’s estimates there are at least 2.7 million internally displaced persons in the Shabaab fighters. Yemen to restore power to exiled President Hadi, pledged $1.5 billion in Rohingya refugees to Myanmar. Egypt’s militant environment. attempts at disarmament. DRC, and c. 450,000 DRC refugees in other nations. humanitarian aid to the country in January 2018.

NUMBER OF UNIFORMED AMISOM PERSONNEL: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF DISPLACED PERSONS: 3 MILLION ESTIMATED BURMESE ROHINGYA POPULATION: ESTIMATED YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT: 33% (WORLD BANK) NUMBER OF UN PEACEKEEPERS: 11,500 (UN) HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX RANK: 176 (UNDP) 22,126 (AMISOM) (UNOCHA) 1.3 MILLION (BBC)

Approaches to security are most effective when shared. So is mobility. Whether it’s security or mobility, sharing is the most effective way of making progress. Ride pooling from MOIA, the Volkswagen Group’s mobility startup, is just one example of how Volkswagen is helping to create a smarter, safer and better world for everyone.

VW_PK_Security Times_607_5x260_TZ_2018_V4.indd 1 07.02.18 14:04 24 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 25

SECURITY CHALLENGES SECURITY CHALLENGES

Balkan troubles PICTURE ALLIANCE/PIXSELL Two decades after the Yugoslav Wars, security in the Western Balkans is again in peril, this time by organized crime and political and religious extremism

BY RÜDIGER ROSSIG – speculated that he had become real reform. Over the course of ruption and political patronage trapped between various criminal the wars, the ex-Communists- at all levels. organizations and their political turned-nationalists joined forces The EU, its member states and n the morning of Janu- patrons, which cost him his life. with criminals to become today’s the US are well aware of the situ- ary 16, 2018, Oliver Whether this is true or not, the Balkan elites, which is why SUVs ation. Probably no other area in OIvanović, 64, was on his murder shows that, 19 years after without license plates can be Europe hosts as much foreign PUTIN FOREVER? way to the office of his citizens' the end of the Yugoslav Wars, seen on roads all over the region. military, police and intelligence Russia’s perennial leader is bent on completing his country’s return to initiative “Serbia, Democracy, threats to security in the Western Drugs are sold openly on many personnel. Then there are the Justice” in Kosovska Mitrovica Balkans no longer emanate from street corners. Organized crime international institutions, such superpower status and recasting the global order in its favor when several shots were fired armies commanded by nation- has little to fear from police or as the Office of the High Repre- at him from a passing car. The alist politicians. The armies of the courts in the Western Balkans. sentatives in Bosnia and EULEX, Kosovo-Serb politician was soon the countries in the region have Only Slovenia has succeeded the EU’s rule of law mission in pronounced dead on arrival at all been firmly integrated into in establishing institutions that Kosovo – the largest assemblage the local hospital. NATO structures (Serbia through can compare and compete with of EU staff outside Brussels. Ivanović’s murder raised eye- an Individual Partnership Action those of its Western neighbors. Although conditions in the region brows far beyond the borders Plan); Alliance troops are sta- Croatia, on the other hand, has are clear to see, policies of foreign of Kosovo, a state of 1.8 million tioned not only in Kosovo, but increasingly retreated to “Balkan” players do not seem to change. BY KATJA GLOGER the new Russia; it is the fourth In this sense, Putin's Russia Targeted weakening of Europe’s ing itself as a new global player, Russia could well have a strate- inhabitants on the southeastern also in neighboring Bosnia-Her- posturing since joining the EU German Foreign Minister Sigmar anniversary of the “homecoming” is a revisionist power. Neither already troubled democracies is above all in the Middle East. gic interest in breaking out of the edge of Europe. One of the few zegovina and Macedonia. nearly five years ago. Although Gabriel announced last year that of the Crimea, the peninsula’s treaties nor laboriously negoti- also safeguarding Russia’s hege- With two military bases in INF Treaty, for example to better Albanian-speaking Serb politi- However, organized crime tied acceptance of arbitration was a a plan for the entire Western n February 1990, a young reintegration into the Russian ated compromises are what really mony in the post-Soviet space. Syria, Russian presence in the shield itself in the east against the cians in Kosovo, he was intent to local political and economic prerequisite for its EU accession, Balkans would be forthcoming. KGB officer departed from Federation following an illegal matter, but rather the right of the Moscow views the EU as noth- Mediterranean seems secured for unstoppable rise of China. At the on maintaining good relations power structures could easily the conservative-nationalist gov- So far, nothing has happened. Ihis first – and last – foreign annexation from Ukraine. strongest. It is no coincidence ing but an appendage of the US. a long time to come. Deployment same time, Moscow can use the with the Albanian majority in this spark fresh violence, and it could ernment in Zagreb has recently The same goes for EU develop- posting and returned to a coun- Unassailable and unsanction- that in his speech to the UN Instead of negotiating energy of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile INF crisis to test NATO’s unity. ethnically divided country. come from more than just the abandoned EU arbitration over ment projects. Brussels supports try that was still called the Soviet able, Vladimir Putin can be voted three years ago, Vladimir Putin deals with Brussels, Russia is system effectively grants Moscow Whereas one NATO member The town of Kosovska Mitro- former Kosovo Albanian Libera- sovereignty rights in the Bay of the Western Balkans each year Mourning Oliver Ivanovic: The citizens of Kosovska Mitrovica light candles for the Union. Vladimir Putin had spent for as an “independent” candi- explicitly referred to the “order seeking to clinch bilateral agree- sovereignty over the country. state – Poland – is debating the vica has been divided since the tion Army, the UÇK. In Bosnia, Piran, which is claimed by both with millions of euros, but the murdered Serb leader of the "Freedom, Democracy, Justice" initiative in Kosovo. five years in East Germany and date, a ruler seemingly with his of Yalta,” the division of Europe ments with the EU’s conservative, The potential reconstruction of possible stationing of US nuclear Kosovo War in 1999. The part both local and international insti- Croatia and Slovenia. Border plans for major road projects bought a used car (a “Volga”) own, unique, czar-like power who into spheres of influence. pro-Moscow and often populist the war-ravaged country with weapons, another member – Ger- north of the Ibar River forms the tutions expressed astonishment disputes with Bosnia are also an such as European traffic corridors to increase its influence in the It is high time for the EU to act with his savings. His return lug- is now cementing his place in his- Russia's decoupling from the “illiberal democracies.” In this the help of international funds many – wants to avoid all discus- largest Serb enclave in the other- when, in January, it came to light issue. Moreover, Kosovo, Serbia V, VIII and X – which would former provinces of the Ottoman decisively in the Western Balkans. gage also included a used wash- tory. With apparent tirelessness, West has been going on for a way, Russia is working to estab- promises lucrative business for sion of an arms buildup. wise Albanian-dominated former that armed paramilitary groups and Montenegro have disagree- create plenty of jobs – never get Empire, while Russia woos the A failure to do so now will mean ing machine – a gift from his the “nationalny lider,” as he is good ten years. Clear warning lish itself as a kind of veto power Russian companies. And with US The Russian leadership denies it Serbian province, which declared still exist in the country, which ments over their common borders off the ground. As a result, China Orthodox populations of Serbia a major security problem in the neighbors. known in Russia, is working to signs were ignored. Putin’s fiery at Europe’s periphery. After all, Middle East policy in disarray, is breaching the treaty. According independence ten years ago. For has been a de facto European as well. is now building roads and rail- and Montenegro. The Russian near future. In Dresden, Vladimir Putin had fulfill his mission to complete Munich speech against US hege- in the past 25 years, as Russia Moscow – as during the Soviet to Putin, Russia can defend itself Serbia, Mitrovica is a symbol of protectorate since 1996. Autocratic leaders and semi- ways in the region. news agency Sputnik is the most experienced the fall of the Berlin Russia's resurrection and shape mony in 2007 was just the begin- sees it, all its attempts to find a era – is proving itself a major with ship-based medium-range its claim to Kosovo; for the inter- This should come as no sur- authoritarian governments in Islamic extremism is also on important media outlet in the Wall and learned to view civil a new world order as the ruler of ning. One year later, then-Russian legitimate place in Europe have diplomatic power in the region missiles, like those used in Syria, RÜDIGER ROSSIG national community it is a touch- prise. It is well known that, with these countries pose a threat to the rise in the Balkans. More region. is an editor at the German rights activists as a threat. A simi- a sovereign superpower. (interim) President Dmitry Med- been thwarted – and this point of as it defines common security for example. The Kremlin points stone for the new multi-ethnic the exception of in a small area in the rule of law, the separation of than a thousand volunteers from When Oliver Ivanović was daily newspaper taz in lar implosion of state institutions Russian Foreign Minister Sergei vedev was already talking about view is not without merits. interests with Israel, Turkey, to NATO’s conventional superior- society it wants to see established eastern Croatia, the weapons used powers and media freedoms – it is Kosovo, Bosnia and Macedonia assassinated – or, according local Berlin. He is the author took place in the Soviet Union. Lavrov postulated a “post-West- a zone of Russian “privileged Second, Moscow sees a historic Saudi Arabia and Iran. Putin ity and the US anti-missile shield, of the book (Ex)-Yugos: in Kosovo. That also means that a in the wars of the 1990s were not no small wonder that people are fought for the Islamic State in media, “executed” – police were Junge MigrantInnen Like many Russians, Putin did ern era” almost nonchalantly interests,” which basi- opportunity to end the era maintains good relations with currently based in Romania, whose lot of money flows into Mitrovica. confiscated or eliminated in any “voting with their feet.” Accord- Syria and Iraq. Their mere return patrolling a mere 70 meters from aus Jugoslawien und not regard Mikhail Gorbachev's at the Munich Security Confer- cally includes of US hege- Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah launchers are similar to the ship- Accordingly, political camps are way. Bosnia, Croatia and Serbia ing to conservative estimates, could jeopardize the already frag- the scene. Yet the officers noticed seinen Nachfolgestaaten perestroika as a new beginning, ence last year. Indeed, it can be all post- mony, el-Sisi, and not only regarding based Aegis Ashore anti-aircraft fighting over the hearts and minds all have their own arms industries 100,000 people in the region ile security in their home coun- nothing suspicious. A few hours in Deutschland ((Ex)- but as a collapse, a humiliation assumed that a globally con- arms exports. system. Aegis, Russia suspects, can Yugos: Young migrants of the town’s 84,000 people – and and export weapons ranging from leave their home countries every tries. At the same time, Salafists later, an Opel Astra without a from Yugoslavia and and a dangerous sell-out to the frontational foreign policy will It has been an astonishing suc- also launch medium-range missiles. a good deal more. pistols to tanks. There is no lack year – most of them for Western and Wahabis – ultra-conserva- license plate was found in flames its successor states West: a “paralysis of power,” as mask the essential social and cess. Russia, once a declining Each side accuses the other of Following Ivanovic’s killing, of hardware for lethal conflict. Europe. They are driven away by tive sects heavily financed by at the outskirts of Kosovska in Germany) and the he would later say. He regarded economic structural reforms regional power, is establish- seeking pretexts for breaking out documentary Bosnia the editors of Vreme – an inde- Moreover, the state institutions, chronic unemployment, which Saudi Arabia – are gaining an Mitrovica. It had apparently been and Kosovo – Europe's the West’s de facto victory in the the Russian elite is unpre- ing itself as an “indispens- of the INF treaty. The looming pendent newspaper published in armies and security structures impoverishes 30 to 60 percent ever-firmer foothold in Muslim used by the gunmen, who remain forgotten protectorates. Cold War as a kind of "Russian pared for. able” nation. security dilemma could lead to the Serbian capital of Belgrade of ex-Yugoslavia have seen no of the population, as well as cor- regions. Turkey, too, continues at large. Versailles." Unlike Russia, In dealing with this a new nuclear arms race, and of Fortunately for him, the old China, for example, new Russia, West- course that would be big business networks – contacts mostly cul- has taken advan- ern capitals have for arms companies on both sides. tivated by intelligence agents and tage of global- been counting The US Congress approved initial (former) party members – sur- ization, staking – rather help- funds for the development of new vived the upheaval. This old and its claim to lessly – on dual medium-range missiles. new elite enabled his ascent to the global leader- strategies from Vladimir Putin is claiming his inner circles of power. He was ship through the Cold War, place in history as architect of “steadfast in a military way,” as gigantic eco- as was spelled Russia’s survival against the Russia’s president at the time, nomic proj- out long ago West and subsequent resurgence. Boris Yeltsin, described his suc- ects such as in 1967 by Monuments built to commemo- cessor in late 1999. the “New Belgian For- rate his rule are only a matter One of the most notable politi- Silk Road.” eign Min- of time. The remainder of his cal careers in recent history had Russia, ister Pierre tenure will feature about as much begun. Now in power for 18 meanwhile, Harmel: The democracy as it will profound years – longer than Angela Merkel remains a West should economic or political moderniza- – Vladimir Putin is one of the structurally advocate deter- tion; an increase in any of these world’s longest serving leaders. weak coun- rence and con- would mean the beginning of the He is the overwhelming favorite try. Putin’s new tainment while end of the Putin system. Yet, as his to win the Russian presidential strength and the signaling desire for oligarchs plunder the country in “election” for the fourth time legitimacy of his de-escalation. The an unprecedented manner, it must when it is held in March of this power are mani- implication here is an also be noted that under Putin, year. There is no alternative. fested in his willingness emphasis on dialogue, many everyday Russian lives Opposing candidates? Several to opportunistically use strategic patience and have improved for the first time were permitted to register, all Russia’s resurgent military “principled pragmatism,” in decades, at least temporarily. belonging to the official oppo- strength, if necessary in hybrid as it was called – all the while While the center of power increas- sition and therefore bit players form. The reality that the West, seeking to maintain strategic sta- ingly resembles a czar’s court, who know their roles in a staged and especially Germany, must bility. But this approach too is political stagnation at home is democracy. Putin’s only serious face is one of confrontation over Soviet which under threat. hailed as stability. rival in the long term, Alexei cooperation, mistrust over trust, states except FOTOLIA it regards as a This is because the nuclear card Perhaps he is grooming a suc- Navalny, is barred from running. as well as conspiracy theories and the Baltic NATO members. “unipolar” aberration. The is back on the table, in both cessor from the group of new- The Kremlin's political strategists deadlocked narratives on both Developments in the post-Soviet US is on the retreat strategically the East and West. Critics even comers who have arisen amid are reported to be aiming for sides. And there is no end in world could influence power struc- as it suffers under its inner con- fear the complete collapse of his extensive staffing reshuffling a “70/70” outcome: 70 percent sight. “Our biggest mistake was tures in Russia itself. Frozen con- tradictions. Although Moscow nuclear arms control. The INF of recent years – quiet, efficient, turnout, 70 percent for Putin. to trust you too much,” Putin said flicts in places such as Georgia, had initially placed its hopes on Treaty, which was concluded in smooth technocrats such as chief The turnout, however, is a in response to a question from a Moldova and Nagorno-Karabakh real political deals with Trump, late 1987 between Soviet Gen- of staff Anton Vaino or the new source of concern. Not voting German participant at the 2017 are intended to safeguard Mos- he appeared to be the far better eral Secretary Gorbachev and US Minister for Economic Develop- could be seen as a sign of protest. Valdai Discussion Club, “and cow’s escalation dominance. alternative to the despised Hill- President Reagan and allowed ment Maxim Oreshkin. They are Faced with growing repression your mistake was to interpret In Ukraine, the situation is much ary Clinton. the destruction of some 3,000 all loyal followers who, like the and condemned to political pas- and abuse this trust as weakness.” more complicated and dangerous. But this optimism quickly nuclear missiles stationed on younger Putin, seem “steadfast sivity, younger people in particu- In this respect, Vladimir Putin The Minsk Agreement is being vanished, and not just because land, is being undermined. in a military way.” lar are turning their backs on the agrees with the majority of Rus- undermined by Kiev as well as of “Russiagate.” The apparent The first real ban on a category In 2024, at the end of his next cynical farce of Russian politics. sia’s population, which follows Moscow. In rebel-held Eastern incompetence of the US presi- of weapons was both a military term, Vladimir Putin would be Although participants numbered a centuries-old reflex comprising Ukraine, the ongoing war, the dent, his unpredictability and and political turning point in 72 – not exceedingly old. But the only in the low tens of thousands, a fateful mix of feelings of infe- people’s disastrous living condi- his rhetorical readiness to esca- Europe; the Intermediate-Range country is hostage to Putin – just nationwide youth protests of the riority and self-deception; they tions and infighting among local late, such as in the conflicts with Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) as he is a prisoner of the system he past year were certainly a warn- believe that Russia is respected warlords over money, weapons, North Korea and Iran, make ended Western Europe’s direct created. “As long as there is Putin, ing to the elites, as “Generation only when Russia is feared. “We coalmines and steel works are also Moscow uneasy, not to mention nuclear threat from Soviet SS-20 there is Russia,” his deputy chief Putin” took to the streets against are morally right,” said Sergei causing problems for Moscow. the almost hysterical proclivity in missiles while the withdrawal of staff once said of him. “With- Russia’s bleak authoritarianism. Karaganov, one of the Krem- The announced delivery of armor- the US Congress for anti-Russian of American Pershing 2 missiles out Putin – no Russia.” Young people protested against lin’s better-known foreign policy piercing weapons by the US to sanctions. Moscow’s relationship from Western Europe enhanced Putin forever? People initially the false values of an alleged new advisers, and “we are smarter, Ukraine has increased the risk of with the US has never been so bad the security of the Soviet Union. laughed at the thought. No one “Russian world” that is strictly stronger and more determined.” further military escalation. But since the end of the Cold War. The INF Treaty heralded the is laughing anymore. anti-Western and demands patri- In any case, in Moscow’s view, Russia's most important foreign But the foreign policy vacuum beginning of the end of the Cold otic obedience – a world in which the US-dominated “liberal order” policy goal in the post-Soviet left by the US is being filled War. Russia resembles a besieged for- is coming to an end – a view space seems to have been reached: wherever the opportunity arises. For years, the US has been KATJA GLOGER tress. Thousands of demonstra- Donald Trump seems to confirm halting the eastward enlargement Putin is a risk-taking tactician suspecting Russia of violating writes for the German tors were arrested and harsh day after day. The “post-Cold of NATO and the EU. who views politics as a zero- the treaty. Beyond (permit- weekly Stern and is a sentences imposed – authorities War order” and its democratic Ukraine will not become a sum game. Every day in Syria, ted) development and testing, longtime correspondent would not permit a repeat of the declarations such as the 1990 member of NATO even in the Russian bombers and helicopters it is believed that new SS-C-8 in Moscow. In 2017 2012 mass demonstrations that Charter of Paris for a New Europe long term, and full membership in defied Angela Merkel’s mantra (9M729) medium-range missiles she published Fremde Freunde. Deutsche und the Kremlin says were instigated have had their day. Now, the new the EU is likewise a distant goal. that there could be “no military have actually been deployed in at Russen – Die Geschichte by the West. multipolar, post-Western world Moscow wants to play for time in solution.” Putin wagered that least two battalions of the Rus- einer schicksalhaften In Putin’s brand of “sovereign is returning to the principles of Ukraine and work towards a new, neither the US nor Europe would sian armed forces. The NATO Beziehung (Foreign democracy,” nothing can be left classical power politics – a bal- perhaps more pro-Moscow govern- intervene. His bet paid off. The partners were informed of these friends. Germans and www.MENNEKES.com to chance. Accordingly, election ance, however unstable, among ment in Kiev. In doing so, Russia is Islamic State suffered defeat and movements last November by the Russians – The history of day – March 18 – has its own the major powers of Russia, the also betting that European leaders Bashar al-Assad won the war. US, although hard evidence was a fateful relationship). significance as a historic date for US and China. will grow tired of backing Ukraine. This is how Russia is establish- apparently not submitted.

AMAXX_Worldwide_SecurityTimes_290x260_Feb18.indd 1 25.01.18 10:51 26 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 27

SECURITY CHALLENGES SECURITY CHALLENGES DPA Minsk The disruptor Russia seeks to exploit divisions in the West. Schminsk But how big is the threat?

The situation in Ukraine BY DMITRI TRENIN ouster of Bashar al-Assad at the media almost completely domi- may seem calm. hands of the US-backed opposi- nating the public debate in Europe Underneath, it is tion. Moscow has entered into a and North America, Russian eneral Curtis LeMay, situational alliance with Tehran; government-funded outlets have anything but chief of staff of the it has its own views and policies turned themselves into purvey- GUnited States Air Force in on Afghanistan and North Korea; ors par excellence of Western- the early 1960s, once interrupted and it is friends with Venezuela’s originated dissent and even fringe one of his officers who described current government. At the United analysis and views. In doing so, the Soviet Union as an enemy. Nations, Russia is not shy to use its Russians are aiming to do to the The USSR, LeMay said, was not veto power. It also works closely West something akin to what the an enemy, but an adversary. The with China, often at cross-pur- Voice of America or Deutsche enemy was the US Navy, the gen- poses with the United States. The Welle did to the Soviet Union Challenging the US global dominance: Russia's President Vladimir Putin during a joint Russian and Belarusian military eral clarified, referring to the bitter Sino-Russian “entente” effectively during the Cold War: promote exercises at Luzhsky training ground. and never-ending rivalry among limits the global writ of the United local alternatives to not only offi- the US military services. States and its allies. cial government policies, but the rary interruptions of Russian gas industry, which was only recently That said, the threat of a mili- Definitions matter. Today, However, it would be quite a established political narratives as supplies to Europe. Rather, it is considered moribund. Russia’s tary collision is real enough and Russia is variously and officially stretch to claim that Russia has well. This is an undeniable irritant, busy laying new pipelines, such elevation, alongside China, as a – to make matters worse – gener- Ukraine is still divided: described in the United States as the power to do much political yet Russia is hardly the creator of as Nord Stream 2 and Turkish major military rival of the United ally underappreciated. To keep everyday life at Stranitsa a competitor, rival or adversary disruption within Western coun- the divisions it tries to fan. Stream. Ukraine’s refusal to buy States is a badge of achievement Europe safe, it would behoove Luganskaya Village checkpoint. – but not yet the enemy, a title tries. While RT and Sputnik were In economic terms, Russia, a gas directly from Russia has also for the country’s military. the West and Russia to take implying war. Three of the US hardly friendly to Hillary Clin- medium-sized economy in relation helped by precluding any potential The new confrontation between certain measures to minimize Government’s guiding documents ton’s 2016 presidential campaign, to GDP, is more on the receiving squabbling over gas prices, non- Russia and the United States has the risk of incidents involving BY REINHARD VESER – the National Security Strategy, their activities, alongside those of end. It must bear the brunt of the payment under existing contracts already resulted in the reemergence their military forces: make sure the National Defense Strategy any number of suspected Rus- Western sanctions imposed in the or theft of transit gas designated of a military standoff along Rus- there is a cease-fire worth the he daily reports issued by in the conflict remains. and the Nuclear Posture Review – sian hackers and their partners, wake of the Ukraine crisis. The for EU countries. sia’s borders with NATO coun- name in Donbass; restrain their the OSCE Observer Mis- The only merit of adopted in the last six weeks point were not more than a drop in the message the sanctions are sending Over the past ten years, Russia tries in Eastern Europe. The more proxies elsewhere, including in Tsion in Ukraine testify to Minsk II – one we to great-power rivalry as a salient ocean. Indeed, blaming Russia for to the entire world is stark: those has reconstituted its recently much- strained strategic environment in the Middle East; and establish a constant stream of ups and should not under- feature of the global geopoliti- all sorts of recent disappointments, who wish to do business with dilapidated military. Its defense the region can be seen in recent reliable communication to avoid downs. Sometimes the number which estimate – is that it cal and security landscape. While including the Brexit vote and the Russia will have to deal with the modernization has resulted in a developments such as the deploy- miscalculation.This is why the of ceasefire violations increases had ended open war- Russia is no longer America’s prin- strong electoral performance of United States. Russia’s own coun- better-equipped, better-trained ment of the Iskander missiles in January visit to Washington of over the previous day; other wanted fare. Since then, cipal challenger – that title has some of non-systemic parties in ter-sanctions against the West have and better-led force capable of Kaliningrad and the emphasis on three Russian intelligence chiefs times it decreases. There is no nothing however, there gone to China – it is considered Europe, from Germany’s AfD to hurt a few European economies, serving as a policy instrument. small-yield nuclear weapons in the – of the FSB (Federal Security definite direction either way – to do with has been very to be the main disruptor of the the Austrian FPÖ to France’s Front but the damage they have felt has The Crimea operation, the mili- US Nuclear Posture Review. In Service), SVR (Foreign Intelli- like a barely fluctuating wave UN forces little progress liberal world order designed, led National, works to downplay the been far less than critical. Under tary support given to the rebels contrast to the Cold War, how- gence Service) and GRU (Mili- that flares up on rare occasions. up until that in imple- and policed by Washington. failures of the ruling elites in vari- in Donbass and the Syria cam- ever, the danger of this confronta- tary Intelligence Directorate) – Today, as the war prepares to point. menting As such, Russia poses a defi- ous countries to respond to the paign are testament to both the tion lies less in the fundamental was so important. Unlike in the DMITRI TRENIN enter its fifth year, the politi- Any hopes DPA the agree- nite political threat to US global fast-moving changes in their own is director of the Carnegie new capabilities of the Russian ideological antagonism between 1990s, when such contacts were cal situation surrounding the associated with ment. Nei- dominance, and that threat is societies. The same is also true of Moscow Center. Armed Forces and the Kremlin’s Moscow and Washington and trumpeted as a sign of grow- conflict in Eastern Ukraine is Putin’s UN move have not tion Center, the announcement the Donbass region might again the other oligarchs, the ongoing ther the provisions regarding the not hollow. Moscow’s actions separatist movements, from Scot- willingness to use those capabili- more in the increased likelihood ing trust, the mission now is to similar to the state of affairs on materialized. Discussions of regarding the delivery of Ameri- become a lever for even more conflict serves as a justification withdrawal of heavy weapons in Georgia in 2008 and again in land to Catalonia to Corsica. ties to achieve geopolitical objec- of incidents between Russian and avoid tragic miscalculation in the battlefield itself: moments the mandate for a UN mission can arms to the Ukraine and, at direct Russian influence on poli- for slowing down or even revers- from the front lines nor any of Ukraine in 2014 have effectively To be sure, Russia seeks to the current circumstances, Russia tives. The modernization program, NATO aircraft, an escalation of an environment where there is of mounting tension alternat- have become little more than the end of January, the Ukrai- tics in Kiev. ing any judicial reforms that the political items have been stopped the heretofore open-ended exploit divisions in the West to would have been insane to use its begun in 2010, is still incomplete. the unfrozen conflict in Donbass as no trust. Russia and the United ing with signs of de-escalation. another pretense for a brand nian parliament’s adoption of Then again, the Russian lead- might hinder their power and complied with in any way. enlargement of NATO to the east. its advantage, and this is nowhere “energy weapon” against Gaz- However, it has already trans- well as proxy attacks and the asym- States may be adversaries again, There is, of course, one differ- of diplomatic trench warfare a law on the reintegration of ership currently has no inter- business interests. At the same The greater the degree to which The Russian military intervention clearer than in the information prom’s clients in Europe, and since formed the Russian military and metrical responses they provoke in but they must not be allowed to ence; this wave spiked when between Moscow on one side occupied territories. However, in est in any form of escalation in time, just like in the old days, all parties to the conflict see the in Syria in 2015 prevented the sphere. With the mainstream 2014 there have been no tempo- revitalized the country’s defense out-of-area locations such as Syria. become enemies. Russian President Vladimir and the West and Ukraine on spite of everything that has hap- Eastern Ukraine. First of all, the this is a war fought in a realm three-year-old text as a lifeless Putin requested a UN peace- the other. The exchange of pris- pened in the past several months, Soccer World Cup is set to take where state coffers meet private piece of paper, the greater the keeping mission in the Donbass oners between Ukraine and the there have been no real changes, place in Russia in June and July, pockets; in other words, there is danger of a new escalation – region in September of last year. separatists at the end of Decem- for better or for worse. and the success of this event is a great deal of profiteering to be even if such an escalation were For the first time since the ber – as well as other potentially The main reason for this stasis extremely important to Putin done, all of which requires very not intended by the parties. One Minsk II negotiations in Feb- positive signals emanating from lies in Moscow. The Russian and his associates. Any form little effort to drape in the cloak major risk factor is the business ruary 2015, a serious proposal the region – has failed to have leadership brought the war to of escalation of the situation of patriotism. Indeed, the needs interests and power struggles of came into play that had not been much positive impact. Ukraine in 2014, and it is the only would cast a dark shadow over of the army can be used to jus- the criminal groups who have part of the agreement negoti- Of course, the same applies to party to the conflict that would be this prestigious project – and tify considerable expenditures. played a significant role in the MISSILE DEFENSE · COMMAND AND CONTROL · SENSORS AND IMAGING · CYBER ated in the Normandy Format the developments that may lead able to put a stop to it. And yet, could even call it into question. For the future of Ukraine, this “People’s Republics” since the made up of Germany, France, to a destabilization or escala- the Kremlin’s ongoing military Secondly, it is easy to see that relapse into former patterns now beginning. However, even coin- ELECTRONIC WARFARE · PRECISION WEAPONS · TRAINING · MISSION SUPPORT Ukraine and Russia. After a long tion of the conflict. Indeed, there and economic support for the as the conflict persists, the EU is poses a danger that is at least as cidences, misunderstandings and standstill – marked by occasional were many such developments in “People’s Republics” of Donetsk finding it increasingly difficult to great as the daily skirmishes on misjudgments can transform a disputes about the interpretation the past several months, such as and Luhansk shows that it is maintain unity regarding sanc- the eastern front. local incident into a major con- of the Minsk document, which the overthrow in the “Luhansk eager to keep the conflict alive. tions. Any intensification of the The fact that both sides have flagration, especially with the was imprecise in many places People’s Republic,” the removal For Russia, the de-facto Russian- fighting in Ukraine would only a vested interest in maintaining removal of Russian officers from – Putin’s suggestion seemed to of Russian officers from the occupied territories are a means serve to close ranks in the EU. the status quo does not mean the the Russian-Ukrainian Coordi- open up the possibility, if not for Russian-Ukrainian Coordina- to continue influencing develop- Why would the Russian leader- situation is at all stable. All sides nation Center, which brought PROVEN INNOVATION. a solution to the conflict, then ments in Ukraine; at the moment, ship contribute to such a devel- continue to hold to the Minsk with it the loss of a direct chan- at least for an improvement to they are doing so only indirectly opment? II package of February 2015, nel of communication. With the overall security situation and and at the considerable political, Apart from that, the Ukrai- at least in form; after all, they regard to the number of inci- REINHARD VESER living conditions of the people in is a political editor for economic, social and psychologi- nian political sphere continues have nothing else. And yet, it is dents and the constant stream the conflict zone. The suggestion Eastern Europe at the cal cost of a devastating war for to come to better terms with clear to everyone that things are of daily ups and downs in the TRUSTED PARTNERSHIP. to send in a UN mission was not German daily newspaper Ukraine. If elections in Ukraine the situation in the Donbass not working, and nor will they Donbass region, there can be new; in fact, the only new and Frankfurter Allgemeine in 2019 produce results that are region, which in any event they ever as long as the fundamental no doubt that a great wave of Raytheon trusted, innovative solutions help customers in surprising element was that the Zeitung. even more confusing or have fun- are powerless to change. For constellation does not change, violence could break out again proposal came from Moscow, damentally different majorities, President Petro Poroshenko and that is, as long as Russian interest at a moment’s notice. more than 80 countries protect people, secure information, defend infrastructure — to make the world a safer place.

Unlocking Raytheon.com @Raytheon BY STEPHANIE LIECHTENSTEIN the deadlock that such a mission could help dination between the UN mission create security in Eastern Ukraine, and the OSCE SMM from the Raytheon The underlying tensions and mistrust which Kiev has been demanding outset. There is hope that with he conflict in Eastern for some time. This in turn would a more secure environment, the Ukraine is in its fourth at the core of the conflict between Russia and the West enable Ukraine to move forward OSCE monitors could fully carry @raytheoncompany Tyear. More than 10,000 on implementing the political out their mandate. As it is now, people have died so far, and the aspects of the Minsk Agreements, their mission is often impeded Raytheon number of ceasefire violations is monitors from the Organization agreeing to Moscow’s political Ukraine Negotiations by US Sec- such as the holding of the local and the monitors are frequently on the rise. The humanitarian for Security and Cooperation in demands for local elections in retary of State Rex Tillerson in elections Moscow is asking for. threatened at gunpoint. situation is dire, especially for Europe (OSCE). Donbass and special status for July 2017, and the Normandy The UN peacekeeping mis- Finally, the bigger challenge is people living close to the line While the situation remains the region. The list includes full Format is vital. Volker has held sion would have to be deployed to address the underlying tensions of contact. The area around the dangerous, the conflict has largely implementation of the ceasefire several meetings with Vladislav throughout the entire territory and mistrust at the core of the line is polluted with land mines, slipped out of the public eye, and the withdrawal of foreign Surkov, Putin’s personal adviser of Donbass – including at the conflict between Russia and the leading to civilian casualties and as global political leaders have troops and weapons. The signifi- on Ukraine. They are currently Ukrainian-Russian border – to West. Russia considers Ukraine a making it difficult for farmers to become preoccupied with a series cant lack of trust between the two both working on reconciling dif- prevent the continuous flow of buffer between NATO and itself use their land. Moreover, critical of other challenges. sides has discouraged any readi- ferent views on a proposal made arms, military equipment and sol- and is wary of losing any distance infrastructure close to the line of For the sake of European secu- ness for compromise. by President Vladimir Putin for diers. It would also have to serve between its own territory and contact has come under fire, cut- rity and the future of Ukraine, Second, international diplo- a UN Peacekeeping Mission in as more than just a protection that of the Alliance. This begs the ting off water, electricity and gas the conflict cannot be allowed matic efforts should be revived. Eastern Ukraine. force for the civilian monitors fundamental question of whether and risking ecological disaster. to fester. But what can be done? The Normandy Format (Russia, While the views are still far of the OSCE. The OSCE Spe- the current Euro-Atlantic security In addition, one of the few coor- First, the Minsk Agreements Ukraine, France and Germany) apart, Volker took up the issue cial Monitoring Mission (SMM) architecture meets the security “Blue Marble” image of Earth captured by Raytheon’s Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite. dination bodies between Ukraine must be implemented fully. They has weakened due to domestic again during his latest meeting to Eastern Ukraine has been on demands of all key players – an and Russia, known as the Joint foresee a ceasefire and a series of political deadlock in Germany fol- with Surkov in Dubai on Jan. 26, the ground since the start of the issue that must be resolved at Center for Control and Coordina- steps to be taken by Ukraine and lowing unresolved parliamentary 2018, and the idea seems still to conflict and has established a some point in the future. tion (JCCC), has been rendered all Russia to settle the conflict. How- elections and a seeming reluctance be alive. There is hope that under valuable basis of trust with all but useless by Moscow’s decision ever, implementation has reached by France to take a more active the right circumstances, an armed sides. Through its daily reporting, in December 2017 to withdraw a deadlock as Ukraine and Russia role. UN peacekeeping mission could the SMM currently provides the STEPHANIE its officers. This makes it more have opposing positions on the Third, close coordination help unblock the impasse with only reliable source of informa- LIECHTENSTEIN © 2018 Raytheon Company. All rights reserved. is web editor-in-chief of difficult to reach local ceasefires sequence of necessary steps. Kiev between former US Ambassador regard to the Minsk Agreements. tion about events on the ground the Security and Human and is a further impediment to is requiring a list of security to NATO Kurt Volker, appointed While this is still a controversial in Eastern Ukraine. It will thus be Rights Monitor. ensuring the safety of the civilian aspects to be implemented before Special Representative for the discussion, some experts believe important to establish close coor- 28 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 29 Trusted solutions SECURITY CHALLENGES SECURITY CHALLENGES from a single source. From compact IT security products for SMEs Long peace Short fuse to scalable enterprise solutions, Rohde & Schwarz Cybersecurity provides: A mechanism to manage security tensions World powers are scrambling for influence ❙ Secure and transparent networks in the Asia-Pacific region over Asian maritime routes ❙ Secure web applications ❙ Tap-proof communication ❙ Endpoint security and trusted management

Our award winning solutions protect companies, geopolitical tensions. Despite To begin with, the EAS needs order to advance their country’s picked up the strategic slack and operators of critical infrastructures and public institutions BY KEVIN RUDD BY CARLYLE THAYER from cyber threats. They are developed according to ASEAN’s success, for half of a a permanent secretariat, which own political objectives. Ethnic engaged more with like-minded century we have failed to repli- should be empowered to create and religious communities in democracies in the Indo-Pacific. the “security by design” principle and prevent complex s we meet this year at cate a parallel political security temporary EAS working groups ecurity alignments in the Australia were also the subject Australian Prime Minister Mal- cyberattacks proactively, rather than reactively. The Minsky Moment Munich, global tensions institution for the whole of East on current and emerging security Asia-Pacific are quickly of covert influence operations colm Turnbull and Prime Minis- Aare at their highest point Asia, let alone for all of Asia policy challenges. Over time it Shardening in response to designed to diminish their criti- ter Abe have stepped up defense The Minsk Protocol in the absence of trust since the end of the Cold War. itself. APEC has evolved into could also consider aligning the China’s rise and regional asser- cism of foreign governments.” cooperation between their two cybersecurity.rohde-schwarz.com Like much of the rest of the a successful regional economic existing ASEAN Defense Min- tiveness. In late January, it was reported countries. world, Asia saw a number of institution, although India is not isters’ Meeting-Plus (ADMM+) These realignments have led to that ASIO listed China as an The United States has long- security crises unfold over the a member. The ASEAN Regional with the EAS heads of govern- the formation of the Quadrilateral “extreme threat,” the highest standing concerns about freedom last year. Tensions between Forum (ARF), which does indeed ment process. Its overall objec- Security Dialogue, or simply the level on a secret country-by-coun- of navigation by naval vessels and China and South Korea flared have a security policy mandate tive should be to establish the Quad, which comprises the United try counter-intelligence index. military aircraft over the South over Seoul’s deployment of the for the wider region, does not habits, protocols and procedures States, its two close allies Austra- ASIO’s assessment was backed China Sea. In May 2017, Presi- THAAD missile defense system. meet at head-of-government level for crisis prevention and dis- lia and Japan, and India. The by widespread media reports of dent Donald Trump approved The return of maritime ten- and has never really worked. pute resolution within the wider Trump administration’s endorse- Chinese influence operations in the defense department’s plan sions in the South China Sea ASEAN+3 (China, South region. ment of the term “Indo-Pacific” Australia, including cash dona- for a full-year regular schedule continues to threaten the “long Korea and Japan) evolved into In the absence of such a secre- gives these alignments a maritime tions to political parties. The of freedom-of-navigation opera- peace” that has underpinned ASEAN+6 (including India, Aus- tariat, the brittle, usually bilat- focus on the sea lanes traversing United Front Work Department tions (FONOPs). As these are Asia’s prosperity for the last tralia and New Zealand), which eral nature of existing security the Western Pacific, South China – an organ of the Chinese Com- officially considered routine quarter of a century. And the in turn evolved into the East Asia policy tensions across the wider Sea and Indian Ocean. munist Party – and Chinese busi- operations, they are not widely most important overall bilat- Summit (EAS – now including region will simply get worse. The Quad is not a formal mili- nessmen were identified as key publicized. eral relationship in the Asia- both the US and Russia). Indeed, this problem would be tary alliance, but each of its four actors in activities designed to China, however, publicly criti- Pacific is also badly frayed, with cizes FONOPs as a threat to its Sino-American relations at their security and a violation of its lowest ebb in several years. Two sovereignty. The US Navy report- major tensions are at the core of edly conducted four FONOPs in this friction: North Korea, and the South China Sea in 2017 and PICTURE ALLIANCE/WESTEND61 the bilateral economic and trade one in January of this year. relationship. At the end of his first year in Armed conflict on the Korean office, Trump approved a new Peninsula is a growing possibil- US National Security Strategy BY FYODOR LUKYANOV The Ukrainian issue is difficult to EU activities, few believed that ity, but not a likely one; I put it (NSS) that singled out China and to resolve, for it transcends bilat- Eastern Europe – the “East” of somewhere in the range of 25 to Russia as strategic competitors. eral or even multilateral contro- the Cold War and a traditional 30 percent. There is no question With respect to the Indo-Pacific tock exchange traders know versy. It challenges many concepts area for geopolitical controversy that a “bloody nose” strike by region, the NSS focused almost what a Minsky Moment is. of the past – or rather, of the – would cease to remain the most the United States against North entirely on the maritime domain, SIt’s when a market fails or pasts, as there are more than important issue for Moscow. As it Korea would lead to retaliation freedom of navigation, and free falls into crisis after an extended one. Realpolitik’s notions from a turns out, a reckoning with the real by Pyongyang. The US wants and reciprocal trade. period of market speculation or former era – spheres of influence, East – the Asia-Pacific dimension China to do more to bring about The NSS bluntly declared: unsustainable growth. This phe- buffer zones, zero-sum game – and the prospect of the “Asian a change in North Korea’s behav- “China is using economic induce- nomenon was named for Hyman were overrun by the liberal storm century” – would become much ior, though there remain serious ments and penalties, influence Minsky, an economics professor touting a “Wider Europe.” Recent higher priorities for Russia. The questions over China’s ability operations, and implied military famous for arguing that a long innovations – the win-win situa- need for domestic transformation to do so. And many of us have threats to persuade other states bull market tends to end in large tion, the peaceful tearing down of is also acute in Russia, as socio- deep doubts about the substance to heed its political and security collapse. borders, indispensable economic economic and political schemes and intention of the North’s con- agenda. China’s infrastructure As we live in a world dominated integration – born after the “end that had served development pur- ciliatory gestures around the investments and trade strategies by a market economy, some con- of history” were disrupted by poses in previous decades were Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. reinforce its geopolitical aspira- cepts seem to apply to political the sudden “return of history” complete and needed replacement Serious diplomatic efforts must tions.” life as well. If we were to con- equipped with military force. by a new model. remain at the fore, including pos- References in the NSS to US sider European security after the Conflict in and over Ukraine The Minsk Protocol will only sible variations on a “freeze-for- support for high-quality infra- Cold War in market terms, it was raised a few conceptual ques- succeed as a prelude or first stage freeze” (i.e. the North Koreans structure promoting economic undoubtedly a bull market for tions. What does it mean today to of a more comprehensive dia- cease missile or nuclear testing growth indicates that Washing- Euro-Atlantic institutions, featur- build a de-facto new nation state, logue over Europe and Eurasia in return for a halt on US-South ton will push back against Chi- ing a spectacular rally that more especially in light of historically in the decades to come. None of Korea joint military exercises), na’s Belt and Road Initiative and than doubled collective assets. and culturally diverse territories? the pasts, be it the 19th-century along with other measures such offer regional states an alternate NATO increased in value (mem- Are nationalism and democracy Vienna-style “concert of powers” as carefully targeted sanctions. source of funding. bers) from 16 to 29 points, and still compatible? What are the or the late-20th-century Brussels- There is also the increasing Shortly after the release of the the EU from 12 to 28. This rise limits for an alliance’s capacity to led “Wider Europe” can be re- possibility of a US-China trade NSS, the Pentagon issued a new was relatively smooth, as market absorb new members? Beyond full instated in our 21st century. Com- war. The Trump administration US National Defense Strategy bears could neither break nor membership, what security guar- petitive interdependence and the recently raised tariff barriers (NDS) that highlighted strategic significantly retard this trend, antees can be applied to satisfy rising propensity and clash of “me on solar panels and washing competition among the major although markets became increas- everyone and provoke no one? first” concepts require a finely machines, leading to immediate powers as the primary concern ingly heated over time. The risk What does sovereignty mean in an calibrated set of rules for mutual retaliatory action from Seoul and of the United States. China and

of losing a most attractive asset interdependent globalized world? behavior. The sooner this work threats from China of retaliation IMAGO/LEEMAGE Russia were explicitly identified forced bears to perform a mas- The Minsk Protocol is still con- begins, the greater the chance of against key US export sectors. as revisionist powers seeking to sive market intervention, which sidered the only hope for a way achieving the sustainable growth The truth is that most poli- overly influence other countries succeeded in breaking the trend. out of the Ukrainian impasse. of markets in any sense. cymakers in the US and China Over the past two years, an exacerbated by the emerging members is pushing back against influence Australian politicians, economic, diplomatic and secu- The Minsky Moment arrived Negotiations began after a Hyman Minsky was born in know a full-blown trade or independent policy commis- system of competing alliances a rising China that has been the Chinese community and Chi- rity decisions. and caught the bulls by surprise, Minsky Moment disrupted pre- Chicago, but his parents had fled currency war would be deeply sion of the Asia Society Policy across the region: on one side of assertive in pursuing its inter- nese-language media. With respect to the Indo-Pacific as they had become used to a vious trends and a “market col- to America from Minsk, a city damaging to the economic pros- Institute has worked together the divide are the US allies, while ests at their expense. Last year, In a high-profile case in 2017, a region, the NDS identified China linear market surge and forgot to lapse” was poised for complete at the periphery of the Russian perity of both countries and to on how we can strengthen the on the other is the expanding for example, Indian and Chinese Labor Party frontbencher, Sena- as a strategic competitor that hedge. Moreover, the fall of the destruction of “stock.” Minsk Empire. Both were active social the global economy. Hundreds existing East Asia Summit – cre- network of Chinese semi-alliance military forces were involved in tor Sam Dastyari, resigned from sought to undermine America’s market inflated previously earned is a modest way to test how sev- democrats but belonged to a of thousands of Americans and ated a decade ago – to enhance structures unfolding through a two-month confrontation on parliament after it was revealed position in the region. The NDS assets as other market players eral different recipes may repair minority group of Mensheviks Chinese would lose their jobs, its effectiveness as a politi- a combination of the Shang- the Doklam Plateau, a tri-border that he had accepted cash dona- posited three main “lines of started to doubt the sustainability damage done – a special role for who opposed Vladimir Lenin’s and GDP in both countries cal security institution for the hai Cooperation Organisation area shared by China, India and tions from a Chinese business- effort” to achieve the objective of the investors who had boosted the OSCE mission, UN peace- revolutionary radicalism and would take a serious hit. Where wider region. The commission (SCO), the Conference on Inter- Bhutan. In February, satellite man, reportedly in return for sup- of a free and open Indo-Pacific the rally. Yet the bears did not keeping units with very specific promoted evolutionary changes this goes next is deeply uncer- is made up of former foreign action and Confidence Building images revealed that both sides porting China’s territorial claims region. The NDS promoted a gain much either – intervention functions, modalities for supervi- in a European style. Lenin’s Bol- tain, but more generally I fear ministers Marty Natalegawa of Measures in Asia (CICA) and were building up defenses, with in the South China Sea. US-led “networked security exhausted their resources as the sors imposing obligations on the sheviks prevailed and Russia for the future of the international Indonesia, Yoriko Kawaguchi of perhaps the Belt and Road Ini- China’s efforts far outweighing On Nov. 23, 2017, the Aus- architecture” consisting of allies market’s overall depreciation parties in conflict. All are crucial embarked on its tragic path trading regime in the absence of Japan, Kim Sung-hwan of South tiative. India’s. tralian government released its and partners – including Viet- devalued many stocks, including measures to gradually stabilize through the 20th century. Lenin’s US global leadership. Korea and Igor Ivanov of Russia; An expanding East Asia Japan faces constant challenges Foreign Policy White Paper. This nam, Indonesia, Malaysia and the one in question. this severe standoff. most hated denizen of Europe’s Indeed, the single most point- former national security advis- Summit, perhaps one day evolv- by Chinese naval and air forces document, without specifically Singapore – to ensure regional While the stock exchange anal- As the Ukrainian conflict is the social democrat scene was Berlin less wound inflicted by the ers Shivshankar Menon of India ing into a wider East Asian operating in waters around the naming China, highlighted the stability and free access to the ogy may be an oversimplifica- quintessence of problems accu- SPD politician Eduard Bernstein, United States on both itself and and Tom Donilon of the United community or an Asia Pacific Japanese-administered Senkaku challenge to US primacy “by maritime commons in the Indo- tion, especially as the “assets” mulated over decades between who said that movement is every- the Asia-Pacific over the past States; Wang Jisi, a member of community, will not serve as a Islands. In January alone, Chinese other powers” that openly con- Pacific. are human and possess their own major international players, a final thing, but the final goal nothing. year was its withdrawal from the the foreign policy advisory group substitute for the development of Coast Guard vessels intruded tested the principles and values The Quad is a work in prog- aspirations, this scheme can serve settlement is not possible with- But what would a final goal look Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). of the Chinese foreign ministry; existing alliance structures. But it twice into Japan’s territorial sea on which international order is ress, the formation of which as an illustration of the genesis of out a comprehensive agreement like in Ukraine? This is not to say Once a great free-trading nation, and myself. could help take the sharper edges while a Chinese frigate and a based. The white paper assessed was spurred by China’s creeping the Ukrainian crisis. What hap- on a new European framework, that the negotiations based on America has left the global trad- off what is currently unfolding, submerged Shang-class nuclear that China’s power and influ- militarization of its islands in the pened in 2014 was not a sudden not only in terms of security, Minsk Protocol should proceed ing system completely rudder- while simultaneously promoting attack submarine entered Japan’s ence will grow to match, “and in South China Sea. Prime Minis- eruption of a geopolitical vol- but addressing a broader, more indefinitely through its various less, with the deeply concern- KEVIN RUDD the evolution of concepts such as contiguous zone. some cases exceed,” that of the ter Abe has proposed a possible cano, but rather the result of comprehensive realignment of all stages, but rather that in the con- ing consequences of calling the was Australia’s 26th prime common security, military trans- Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo United States in the Indo-Pacific. agenda including the provision of tectonic shifts that the bulls had actors. No group or state is in the temporary world, movement is entire global trade regime into minister and is president parency and common military Abe has been instrumental in A Chinese spokesperson called aid, infrastructure and maritime seen as unavoidable, yet dismissed position it expected to find itself in more critical than the endgame. question and undermining the of the Asia Society Policy exercises, which over time could knitting closer political ties with the white paper “irresponsible.” security to assist regional states Institute in New York. them as inconsequential. The fact years ago. Russia, the EU, NATO, This is especially true in light of source of much of the world’s help preserve the “long peace” India and enhanced defense ties The white paper depicted terri- in resisting Chinese dominance. that the collision of Russian and the US, key states in Europe – all the fatal deficit of trust among the prosperity. from which we have collectively with Australia. torial disputes in the South China The first meeting of Quad naval Western interests was formally have undergone painful internal key players; for, trust is a critical These are some of the immedi- benefited since the end of the last Australia, which is not geo- Sea as a “major fault line” in the chiefs in New Delhi in January caused by the expansion of the transformations, and have had element everywhere – on Wall ate challenges confronting poli- The EAS has the mandate to Korean War. graphically proximate to China, region, noting that Australia was of this year is a harbinger of the EU, not of NATO, was symbolic. difficulties adapting to a world Street as well as in geostrategic cymakers across the Asia-Pacific. expand its activities in the secu- faces challenges of a different “particularly concerned by the new realignment across the Indo- The European Union had always changing at an ever-faster pace. talks. But in the long term, how do we rity domain. The Kuala Lumpur sort: Chinese interference in its unprecedented pace and scale of Pacific to push back against an claimed to have overcome old- When the EU pushed for asso- develop a mechanism to manage Declaration of 2005 makes this domestic affairs. The Australian China’s activities… (and) opposes assertive China. fashioned geopolitical thinking ciation agreements with the East- the region’s most pressing secu- clear. Furthermore, signatories Security Intelligence Organisa- the use of disputed features and and proposed a post-historical ern Partnership countries, no one FYODOR LUKYANOV rity tensions? One of the prob- to the EAS have all signed the tion (ASIO) stated in its 2016– artificial structures in the South approach to community building predicted the migration crisis, the is editor-in-chief of Russia lems has been the failure of the Treaty of Amity and Coopera- 17 annual report that they had China Sea for military purposes.” CARLYLE THAYER in Global Affairs and is emeritus professor at in Europe. Yet the perception meltdown of major political parties wider region to generate a politi- tion in Southeast Asia, which “identified foreign powers clan- It also stressed the importance The University of New of their actions by others was across Europe or the brittle trans- chairman of the Presidium cal security institution capable of commits partners to peaceful dis- destinely seeking to shape the of US leadership and participa- of the Council for Foreign South Wales at the Cybersecurity just the opposite – a hypocritical, atlantic relations in the wake of and Defense Policy in entrenching pan-regional norms, pute resolution. Moreover, EAS opinions of members of the Aus- tion in a rules-based international Australian Defense Force sophisticated disguise for tradi- the political earthquake in the US. Moscow. practices and cultures for the is unique in having all necessary tralian public, media organiza- order. At a time of growing stra- Academy, Canberra. tional expansionism. When Russia fiercely responded management of underpinning players around the one table. tions and government officials in tegic uncertainty, Australia has The Security Times • Strategy The Security Times • Strategy

30 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 31

SECURITY CHALLENGES SECURITY CHALLENGES

Rivalry THE CALL OF or rapport

China’s relations with its neighbors and the West will define THE TIMES ALLIANCE / FSTOP PICTURE the next world order

Beijing’s plans for a globalization that is more open, inclusive, and

beneficial for all MEDIEN PICTURE ALLIANCE/CPA No state is an island? China is building facilities on Fiery Cross Island

BY FU YING enough – it is now about whether innovate our security concept, rity cooperation based on mutual and avoid a collision. But apart The US tends to view China’s BY THEO SOMMER was adamant: In five or ten years, corps will boost from 12,000 to sovereign territory and security two ancient Silk Roads. Huge affairs, export our own social it is good enough. The focus of establish a new regional secu- respect and common interest. from their differences over trade, growing role in global affairs he maintained, the US will be 40,000 men; that China has estab- interests. The Pentagon replied infrastructure projects – build- system and model of develop- s we enter 2018 and our attention must therefore also rity cooperation architecture and The security situation in Chi- they are deeply divided over the from the angle of geopolitical fighting a war in the South China lished a naval base in Djibouti and that it would continue to carry ing roads and railways, bridges ment, or impose our own will move toward the end be changed, with our emphasis jointly build a shared, win-win na’s Asian neighborhood is quite South China Sea. competition, identifying China or seven decades now, Sea; China’s rise to world domi- secured port facilities in Hamban- out regular Freedom of Naviga- and dams, power stations and on others,” is Beijing’s mantra. Aof the second decade of shifting to more coordinated and road for Asian security." complicated. The most serious Territorial disputes over islands as a “strategic competitor.” The the world’s most peril- nation has to be stopped. tota (Sri Lanka), Gwadar (Paki- tion Operations missions. pipelines – are to create cor- It does, however, expect all those the 21st century, the world is comprehensive development and What China is advocating is in challenge is currently the North and shoals in the South China Sea Trump administration’s first Fous flashpoints have all There is a very simple reason stan) and Port Darwin (Australia); For almost 20 years China ridors of peace and prosperity. who benefit from its calculated witnessing new instabilities and our attention targeting not only response to the call of the times. If Korean nuclear issue. The tensions are not new. In the process of National Security Strategy men- been in Asia: Kashmir, Taiwan I find such bellicose musings and that it is now building its third and the ten-member Associa- Spearheading the initiative, the largesse to toe the Chinese line. turbulent situations. Having the economy but also political, China and the United States – and over territorial disputes in the improving relations in the 1990s, tioned China 33 times, labeling and Korea. India and Pakistan not only irresponsible, but also aircraft carrier. tion of Southeast Asian Nations Chinese invited more than 100 They must support its “core attended forums in Munich, cultural and social progress as ideally Europe, Russia and others South China Sea and East China China and the ASEAN countries it a “revisionist” power in terms fought three bloody wars over unrealistic. China has made As its economy has expanded, (ASEAN) have been negotiating countries and organizations to interests” and refrain from any Sochi and Rome in late 2017, I well as the improvement of the as well – can begin exploring the Sea are also continuing to simmer. reached a basic agreement on of the international order and Kashmir, in 1947-48, 1963 enormous strides, but it is still China has increased its defense about a code of conduct for the participate in the enterprise. kind of criticism, however well could sense the anxieties in inter- environment. basic principles of major dispute The Korean nuclear issue is a shelving disputes and pursuing claiming that “China and Russia and 1971, and still face one a developing country. Ahead of budget by 10 to 17 percent annu- South China Sea. To this very They have signed cooperation founded. national strategic circles. People The Party Congress reiter- resolution, this will not only help most unfortunate case. For over joint development through dia- challenge American power, influ- another at gunpoint in the con- it lies a long and arduous path ally. In the past two years it grew day, Beijing continues to stall on agreements with over 40 states This is a challenge, particularly were asking: What is happening ated that peace and develop- maintain overall stability in rela- 60 years following the ceasefire in logue and negotiations. But in ence and interests, attempting to tested Himalayan region. Bei- to complete modernization and only 7 percent annually, reaching these negotiations. To be fair, in and invested about 50 billion dol- to the EU. The China-sponsored in the world today? Is our cur- ment remain the call of our day, tions between the major powers, the Korean War, there has only 2010, the US adopted a new strat- erode American security and pros- jing’s determination to reunify more than modest prosperity. In $151 billion in 2017, which is August 2017 ASEAN and China lars themselves, but all told they “16+1” group – embracing rent global system collapsing? while admitting that the world but will also facilitate the resolu- existed a truce agreement, as no egy: its “pivot to Asia,” making perity.” The US Defense Strategy Taiwan with the mainland has this endeavor, China can only tantamount to 1.3 percent of agreed on a draft code of con- are prepared to make almost one eleven EU member states from Will mankind fall back into con- faces growing uncertainties and tion of hot-spot regional issues. peace deal has been forged and China its target. The fact that document subsequently released triggered several international succeed in a peaceful interna- GDP (US: 4.35 percent). That duct. But the essential point was trillion dollars available for the Greece to the Baltic and five frontations and isolationism? destabilizing factors. In this con- The 19th CPC National Con- US troops have remained on the the US is taking sides and con- on Jan. 18, 2018, declares that crises; in the 1950s US Presi- tional environment. Peace is the makes it the world’s second larg- left unresolved: China refused to 900 Silk Road projects identified non-EU Western Balkan coun- This year marks the 40th text, China’s diplomatic goals gress report has stated that “we peninsula. Deep distrust makes doning the provocative rhetoric the US will restore America’s dent Dwight D. Eisenhower precondition of development. est defense budget – still only a include the Paracel and Spratly so far. This is ten times more than tries – is patently seen as an anniversary of China’s policies in the new era include promot- will make it our mission to see it impossible for any bilateral and moves of others has only competitive military advantage even considered using nuclear However, in our world of ever quarter of the Pentagon figure, Islands into the code’s remit. the US Marshall plan provided instrument to influence the inter- of openness and reform. Forty ing the creation of a new type that by 2035 the modernization or multilateral agreement on the intensified China’s concern over to deter Russia and China from weapons to ward off an inva- growing uncertainties it is only but twice as large as Russia’s, Yang Jiechi, then Chinese foreign to Europe after World War II nal EU decision-making process. years ago, China made the his- of international relations, with “challenging” the United States sion by Mao Zedong’s troops. natural that several aspects of and three times more than India’s minister, seems to have prevailed. ($13.2 billion, roughly $130 bil- “China is not just knocking on toric decision of shifting the focus more prominence given to last- and its allies. It would be a major Korea, partitioned since the end China’s policy pose concerns to and Japan’s. If growth contin- Several years ago he had told an lion in 2018 dollars). Europe’s door,” says a recent of the Communist Party and the ing peace, universal security and concern should this turn out to be of World War II, was the scene the rest of the world: its mas- ues by about 10 percent each ASEAN conference in Hanoi: What is China’s purpose? study of the Mercator Institute country to make the economy common prosperity and a call THE US-LED WESTERN WORLD HAS a declaration of containing China. of a devastating three-year war sive arms build-up; its expansive year, it will reach $300 billion in “China is a big country and other There is no shortage of high- for China Studies in Berlin. “It’s grow. “Peace and development for the building of a community With China’s strength growing pitting the Americans against strategy in the South China and 2025. What for? The pernicious countries are small countries, and minded official explanations: already in the room.” are the themes of the times,” with a shared future for mankind. ATTEMPTED TO WESTERNIZE THE in economics, science and tech- the Chinese; a peace treaty has East China Seas; the ramifica- effect is an enormous arms race that’s just a fact.” One cannot “Development holds the master Undoubtedly, Beijing is not as Deng Xiaoping would later These are not only our expecta- nology, it is inevitable that com- still not been signed. tions of its boundless Silk Road in a world region that should exclude that Beijing’s assertive key to solving all problems” – merely seeking to expand its sum it up. And they are still tions for the world’s future, but petition between China and the These three flashpoints were Initiative. not waste its scarce resources stance will have the desired effect. “What we hope to achieve is a economic footprint; it expects the dominant themes of today. also a necessity for our domestic GLOBE BY EXPORTING ITS OWN US will increase, as competition is reason enough for some observ- Forty years ago the People’s on guns, tanks, frigates and jet The 13th ASEAN summit point- new model of win-win coopera- political compliance. Already China has been riding the tide development. also the nature of the world’s lib- ers to hoist a red flag years ago. Liberation Army (PLA) was an fighters. edly omitted references to “land tion” – “We can embark on a Greece and Hungary prevented of economic globalization ever Some may worry that as China VALUES AND MODEL eral market. But it is also true that Unless the Asians were careful, armed force of 5 million troops Of the 3.3 million square kilo- reclamation and militarization” path leading to friendship, shared the EU from passing joint state- since and has become both a hub becomes stronger, it will embark our relationship is more coopera- they warned, Europe’s past – mostly busy with producing meters of the South China Sea, in the South China Sea previously development, peace, harmony ments on the South China Sea and an important engine for the on the traditional path of seek- tive than competitive. It would one of contention, rivalry and tofu and raising cabbage; the through which about 5 trillion included in its final communi- and a better future.” and on human rights violations world economy. From China’s ing hegemony while exporting of our national defense and our nuclear issue to be fully imple- the issue of the South China Sea. benefit everyone if China and the war – might well become the Vietnamese easily beat back the tons of shipborne trade passes qué. Given their economic depen- There are, of course, less lofty in the People’s Republic. The perspective, globalization must its political system and ideol- forces is basically complete, and mented. The US, emphasizing its China commenced reclama- US could achieve common prog- template for Asia’s future. But Chinese when they invaded their each year, China has claimed dence on China and the retreat of explanations. The most innocu- easterners among the “16+1” be improved, but backtracking ogy. The outside world wants to that by the mid-21st century our own security and its allies’ safety, tion projects around the Nansha ress through healthy, constructive meanwhile, the meteoric rise of southern neighbor in February back 2.6 million square kilome- Donald Trump’s America from ous is that BRI provides China states also felt obliged to sign a is unlikely. China is thus call- understand what China means people’s armed forces have been has exerted mounting military or Spratly Islands at the end of and rule-based competition that China from rags to riches and 1979. In Deng Xiaoping’s reform ters. Its Nine Dash Line includes the Pacific (witness his pulling with an outlet for its excess pro- Memorandum of Understanding ing for globalization to be made when it vows to “move closer to fully transformed into world- pressure and calls for continued 2013. The islands, which are drives development. from international impotence era, modernization of the PLA the whole region down to the out of the Transpacific Partner- duction of steel, cement, solar endorsing the thrust of the Belt more open, inclusive, balanced center stage.” Does it mean that class forces.” Some have rushed sanctions, while North Korea, under the control of China, are China and the US are now to global influence has given was not accorded priority. From southern top of Vietnam and ship TPP), the ASEAN states panels etc. Moreover, it secures and Road Initiative – something and beneficial for all. the country is prepared to replace to interpret this as “setting a hoping to achieve ultimate safety, far away from international highly interdependent. Our inter- their warnings added relevance. 1979 to 1989, defense expendi- eastward close to the Philip- may have no other option but to employment for hundreds of the US, Germany, France, the The security challenges in the US and play a “leading role” timetable for achieving global has accelerated its nuclear and navigation routes and therefore ests are intertwined as a result Taiwan remains a contentious accept that the South China Sea thousands of Chinese workers European Commission and even today’s world are globalized. in the world? When China offers hegemony,” while ignoring the missile tests, resulting in a vicious pose no restriction on the free- of over 40 years of development issue. “Reunification,” postulates has become a Chinese lake. and opens up new markets for Britain refused (one reason being Common threats are widespread, “Chinese wisdom and a Chinese fact that China has always pur- circle of action and reaction. Is dom of international navigation. following the normalization of Beijing’s recent Defense White China’s claims to the Senkaku Chinese firms. that in their view BRI has by no including extremism, terrorism approach,” is that tantamount to sued a national defense policy there any hope for a peaceful Maintenance and construction bilateral relations. According to Paper, “is an inevitable trend CHINA’S ECONOMIC Islands, which it refers to as the China has also made no secret means turned out to be an exclu- and cybersecurity challenges. China exporting its development that is defensive in nature. solution to the North Korean work on some of the garrisoned China Customs, the trade volume in the course of national rejuve- Diaoyu Islands, in the East China of the fact that it aims at “pro- sive enterprise open to all; only But major countries find it hard model? The white paper on China’s nuclear issue? islands and reefs had merely an between China and the US in nation.” Kim Jong-un’s nuclear DEVELOPMENT IS Sea are a different story. They moting connectivity of policies, 11 percent of the infrastructure to extricate themselves from the We are keenly aware of the military strategy published in It is an encouraging sign that innocuous purpose: optimizing 2017 was over $580 billion, rep- ambitions have once again made have been administered by the rules and standards” (Xi Jin- projects have been awarded to geopolitical tug of war and are long and arduous path ahead of 2015 explicitly identified the an opportunity for easing ten- functions, improving the living resenting a yearly increase of 15.2 armed conflict on the Korean Japanese since 1895. A bone of ping), i.e. replacing Western poli- non-Chinese companies.) The returning to competitive and us in our domestic development strategic tasks to be shouldered sions between South Korea and and working conditions of per- percent and accounting for 14.2 peninsula a distinct possibility. TRANSFORMING IT contention since the mid-1990s, cies, rules, norms and standards. attempts to divide Europe and exclusive security approaches, and also recognize the huge gap by China’s military: to deal with North Korea has emerged as sonnel stationed there, better percent of China’s total foreign At the same time, tensions are they have become the scene of It will also boost the market the lack of reciprocity when it making it harder to create effec- between China and the United a wide range of emergencies and the South has capitalized on the safeguarding China’s territorial trade. When President Trump rising in the entire Indo-Pacific INTO A FORMIDABLE repeated military confrontation. power of the Chinese currency. comes to investments will con- tive global security cooperation. States. We are still at the stage military threats as well as effec- Pyeongchang Winter Olympics to sovereignty, maritime rights and was visiting China in November region: between India and China, However, rather than causing In the latest analysis, however, tinue to cast a shadow over EU- The US-led Western world has of learning and growing. There tively safeguard the sovereignty open dialogues with the North, interests, and improving the abil- 2017, Chinese and US companies China and Japan, China and the Tokyo to give in, they strength- any realistic assessment of Xi’s China relations. attempted to westernize all the is a lot we need to improve in and security of China’s territorial which responded positively. The ity to better provide public ser- signed deals on 34 cooperation littoral states of the South China POLITICAL AND MILI- ened the tendency there to amend project of the century will arrive While the Asian superpower is globe by exporting its own values areas like technological innova- land, air and sea; to resolutely fact that the US and South Korea vices like search-and-rescue and projects worth US$ 253.5 bil- Sea and – most alarmingly – Japan’s pacifist constitution and at the conclusion that the Silk increasingly seen from Brussels, and models. Those attempts have tion as well as product research safeguard the unification of the have agreed to delay their regular marine research. lion. This was a demonstration between the People’s Republic TARY COMPETITOR to marshal support for its stance Road Initiative, despite his dis- Paris and Berlin as a political and not only failed to address old and development. We wish to motherland; to safeguard Chi- joint military exercises during the The US and the Philippines of political will and the strong and the United States. through increased foreign aid as claimer that it is not “a case economic challenge in Central and problems but have also created play a role in world affairs and na’s security and interests in new Winter Games in February and reacted strongly and criticized business potential between the “China’s economic develop- well as closer military coopera- of outdated geopolitical maneu- Eastern Europe and on a wider new ones. make an even greater contribu- domains; to safeguard the secu- March has paved the way for China. Some other countries in two countries. ment is transforming it into a ture dropped by 6 percent annu- pine coast. A large part of three tion with India, Australia, New vering,” is quintessentially an global scale, it should not be China is not pursuing its devel- tion to mankind. But it must be rity of China’s overseas interests; future talks and consultations. the area also expressed concerns. The Chinese approach to formidable political and mili- ally. But then the US-led wars in island groups – the Paracels in Zealand and the United States. exercise in geopolitics. Where ignored or forgotten that when it opment goals in a vacuum. We done within our means and in to maintain strategic deterrence This can be seen in part as an The Philippines even brought addressing the trade imbalance tary competitor,” writes Graham Iraq, with Serbia and against the the North, the Spratlys in the Yida Yilu – One Belt, One the West insists on political and comes to climate change, free trade need a peaceful international a manner consistent with our and carry out a nuclear counter- early-stage implementation of the an arbitration case without the with the US is to make the “cake” Allison, the founding dean of Taliban in Afghanistan convinced center and Scarborough Shoal in Road – was the name given to the economic reforms, the People’s and the maintenance of peace in environment. We need to engage values. attack; to participate in regional “suspension for suspension” idea, prior consultation of China, as bigger instead of imposing restric- Harvard’s Kennedy School of the leadership that they had a lot the east – are also being claimed ambitious development project Republic uses its enormous Asia, the Europeans and Chinese in more extensive and compre- China has offered a new option and international security coop- which China has been promot- was required according to the UN tions. The US should relax its Government. In 2015 he asked: of catching up to do to turn the by five other littoral states as unveiled by China’s President capital reserves, its engineering are sitting in the same boat. They hensive cooperation with the rest to countries that seek rapid devel- eration and maintain regional ing – suspension of nuclear and Convention on the Law of the Sea. export controls and promote “The Thucydides Trap: Are the PLA into a modern force. well; many islands fall into the Xi Jinping in 2013. At first it knowhow as well as its produc- are allies in the fight against -cli of the world. As President Xi opment while retaining their and world peace; to strengthen missile tests and suspension of The case was rejected by China. exports of high-tech products to US and China headed for War?” It was reduced to two million Exclusive Economic Zones of aimed only at the resuscitation tion and building capacity to mate skeptics and protectionists. Jinping said in his Geneva speech independence. But this does not efforts in operations against infil- military maneuvers. The US also stepped up its inter- China, fulfilling its obligations Writing about the conflict that men. The PLA structure was Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philip- of Marco Polo’s old Silk Road give globalization a Chinese face. And preserving peace is not only on Jan. 18, 2017: “China will do mean that China’s model and tration, separatism and terrorism While China believes that sanc- vention, sending ships to sail near under Article 15 of the Proto- devastated Athens and Sparta totally revamped. Information, pines, Taiwan or Brunei. In 2013, from China to Europe and the It is welcome wherever money the precondition of China’s con- well only when the world does ideology are to be exported. The so as to maintain China’s politi- tions are necessary and has fully the Chinese islands and shoals. col on China’s Accession to the 2,500 years ago, he concluded: cyber and space warfare were China’s President Xi Jinping gave century maritime Silk Road is in short supply and political tinued development, it is the only well, and vice versa.” success of China proves that there cal security and social stability; complied with the UN Security Yet China will not surrender its WTO. It should also treat invest- “When a rising power threat- emphasized. Territorial defense is the green light for the build-up between China and East Africa stipulations regarding human way to avert global chaos. The 19th CPC National Con- are alternative options to those and to perform such tasks as Council resolutions concerning territorial sovereignty and cor- ment by Chinese companies in ens to displace a ruling power, no longer the only mission; “safe- of seven artificial islets around opened up by Admiral Zheng rights or financial rectitude are A China bent on reclaiming gress established China’s new proposed by the West. Yet China emergency rescue and disaster sanctions on North Korea, we responding maritime rights, nor the US fairly while using trade alarm bells should sound: danger guarding China’s security and rocks or low-tide elevations nor- Sen in the 15th century. But unappreciated. its past greatness must realize central leadership with President is not interested in the so-called relief, rights and interests protec- also hold that sanctions only will it condone other parties inter- remedy measures with caution. ahead.” Reviewing the past five interests” in remote regions of the mally under water. Although The as it has changed its label sev- No matter how often and how that others have core interests Xi at its core, and “The Xi Jin- “competition of systems.” tion, domestic safety, and support work when the door for nego- vening in disputes between China The two countries should not hundred years, he found sixteen world and in “local wars” was Hague Arbitration Court rejected eral times and now goes by the loud Beijing’s spokespersons keep and core values, too; that the US ping Thought on Socialism with In the realm of security, the for national economic and social tiation is open. For this reason, and its neighbors. The differences allow a trade war to compro- cases in which a major nation’s added to the military portfolio. the Chinese claims as historically name Belt and Road-Initiative denying it China is creating for will have to restrain President Chinese Characteristics for a New pursuit of exclusive security by development. China has made painstaking between China and the US regard- mise corporate interests and the rise disrupted the position of the Just as important was a funda- and legally unfounded, Beijing (BRI), it has also kept expanding itself an old-fashioned sphere of Trump’s impulse to unleash a Era” was adopted as the guide to the United States and its alli- The white paper also pointed efforts to promote dialogue and ing these disputes have the poten- people’s wellbeing. dominant state. Twelve of these mental revision of China’s strate- stuck to its view. Moreover, it its geographical scope. It now influence that reaches far beyond preemptive strike against nuclear China’s development. It mapped ance will unavoidably clash with out that “the armed forces will negotiation. tial to become the major point of Many of the new global chal- rivalries ended in armed conflict. gic posture. The traditional view started turning the seven islands encompasses “all countries from the boundaries of its former tribu- North Korea; and that Washing- out the objective of completing the security interests of countries actively participate in both China-US coordination is tension in the South China Sea. lenges cannot be effectively Allison granted that war between that the land is more important into unsinkable aircraft carriers either Asia, Europe, Africa or the tary states. China seems to have ton and Beijing should manage the building of a moderately pros- outside their alignment. Further- regional and international secu- essential. Since President Donald Progress is currently being made tackled by one country alone. the US and China is not inevi- than the sea has been abandoned. by building piers, runways for Americas” (Xi Jinping). Even a internalized both of the classical their disagreements and negotiate perous society in all respects by more, countries not belonging to rity cooperation and safeguard Trump took office, the relation- in negotiations on the Code of It is therefore imperative for the table, but expanding his thesis The greatest importance, said the military aircraft, harbor facili- “Polar Silk Road” has become theories of geopolitics: Halford a long peace. Priority should be 2020 and turning China into a any alliance also face challenges overseas interests.” However, ship between China and the US Conduct in the South China international community to join into a book last year, he entitled 2015 Defense White Paper, should ties for its navy jets, hangars part and parcel of the scheme. Mackinder’s Heartland Theory, given to warding off the mega- great modern socialist country in in the handling of security differ- China’s approach regarding its has been smooth, with both Sea (COC) between China and efforts. China hopes to estab- it Destined for War. henceforth be accorded to the seas and radar towers; on some they The basic idea is connectiv- according to which whoever threats of an atomic Armaged- two steps by 2050. It also charted ences between them. It is there- overseas interests is not exclusion- countries demonstrating a will- ASEAN countries. China has no lish a solid partnership based Others took up the idea. The and oceans as well as to safeguard- are reported to have deployed ity and cooperation along the dominates the pivot area from don, of anarchic nuclear prolif- the course for China’s economic fore important that all countries ary or confrontational. China has ingness to tackle bilateral issues agenda or motive to seek hege- on mutual respect and shared Rand Corporation published a ing the security of China’s overseas artillery. When the United States the Volga to the Yangtze and eration, of global terrorism and policy over the next couple of work together to set out some vowed never to pursue hegemony mony in the region. Future devel- interest with the US. Such a 96-page study by David Gompert interests. “Open seas protection” protested against the “militari- from the Himalayas to the Arctic of climate change. years. China’s economy has been basic common principles. nor to seek spheres of influence, opment is in the hands of the par- partnership, which adapts to the War with China. Thinking the is being added to “offshore waters zation” of those seven artificial THEO SOMMER commands the world; and Admi- All of them should, in Henry going through a transition from a In 2014, President Xi proposed military alliances or expansion. FU YING ties involved, where the choice of ever-changing reality, will enable Unthinkable. John Davis chimed defense.” Small wonder, then, that islands, the Chinese defense min- is executive editor of ral Alfred Mahan’s vision of sea Kissinger’s words, “move from phase of rapid growth to one of that “we should actively advocate China will not fall into the trap is chairperson of the cooperation may lead to a “multi- both sides to better achieve their in with his analysis “How would the Navy as the ideal instrument istry reversed the charge. China The Security Times and power as the main attribute of crisis management to a definition Foreign Affairs Committee The German Times and a quality development. Put more a common, comprehensive, coop- of “strategic competition” with win” outcome, while opting for domestic objectives while coping a war between the US and China of power projection has profited would further strengthen its naval national greatness. of common goals, from the solu- of the National People’s former editor-in-chief of the simply, whereas our concern erative and sustainable security other powers. We will remain Congress of China. confrontation or even conflicts with the challenges of today’s play out?” Steve Bannon, Presi- most from the increases in the and air defenses. It urged the US German weekly Die Zeit. “We have no intention to inter- tion of strategic controversies to had been about whether there is strategy for Asia. We need to committed to international secu- would make everyone a loser. world. dent Trump’s erstwhile adviser, defense budget; that the Marine to respect the People’s Republic’s fere in other countries’ internal their avoidance.” 32 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 33

SECURITY CHALLENGES SECURITY CHALLENGES KCNA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES No

different message aimed at the – a highly unlikely prospect – US: North Korea, now established and eliminated most its artillery as a nuclear power, will mass- – nearly impossible – they still nukes produce nuclear warheads and have large stocks of chemical and ballistic missiles in 2018. probably biological weapons. It North and South Korea are speaking However, a North Korea would still be Armageddon. again, but Pyongyang will never give with nuclear weapons remains So, war on the Korean Penin- unacceptable to Washington, sula is not an option. What is up its nuclear weapons as Trump’s National Security promising, however, is the current PICTURE ALLIANCE/DIEKLEINERT.DE Adviser H.R. McMaster recently strategy of “maximum pressure” affirmed. It would be “intoler- through economic sanctions and able” for North Korea to be able political isolation. But success is BY MATTHIAS NASS seized the initiative with his New yet. Western experts have con- North Korea’s strategic goals, a surprise and then reaps the “denuclearization” of the Korean to attack the US with a nuclear contingent on the dogged coop- Year’s speech in 2018. He offered cluded that North Korea’s claim and Kim believes they are get- rewards in economic and humani- peninsula. He does not accept weapon. After Pyongyang tested eration of all parties – the Ameri- North Korea’s participation in the to have tested a hydrogen bomb ting closer and closer to reaching tarian aid from South Korea, the Kim’s position that nuclear weap- a Hwasong-15 intercontinental cans, South Koreans, Chinese, ne can be forgiven for Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, is credible; the explosive force them. But in doing so he has alien- US and their allies. ons are a topic exclusive to talks ballistic missile on Nov. 29, which Russians and Europeans. doubting that Kim South Korea, and proposed politi- was about 15 times stronger than ated the entire world. But even the Obama admin- with the Americans. He wants would be capable of reaching the Will Kim Jong-un make a deal? OJong-un is an “abso- cal talks with the government in the bomb dropped on Hiroshima Since North Korea detonated its istration did not want to be to have a say in the process. The East Coast of the US, McMas- Or will he drag his country and lutely competent and mature Seoul. South Korean President in 1945. first atomic bomb in 2006 under blackmailed this way anymore. liberal Moon is wary of South ter said the odds of war were its citizens with him into the politician,” as Russian President Moon Jae-in responded imme- Impoverished North Korea, Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, the “We do not buy the same horse Korean conservatives accusing “increasing every day.” abyss? Mattis, warning of the Vladimir Putin has called him. diately. Within days, representa- today’s most backward dicta- United Nations Security Council twice,” said Obama’s National him of naïveté or of endanger- Some accuse McMaster of “gathering clouds,” recommends He is rather a cold cynic risking tives of both governments met in torship, has established itself as has imposed economic sanctions Security Advisor Tom Donilon. ing the alliance with the United hyperbole regarding a highly Party on: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspecting a test of the surface-to-surface medium long-range strategic ballistic missile Hwasong-10 at an undisclosed that his troops read the book This the lives of millions of people the border town of Panmunjom. the world’s ninth nuclear power on the country ten times, includ- One can imagine how much less States. It was not long ago that sensitive topic, but Defense Sec- location in North Korea. Kind of War, which describes the to secure his own political sur- They discussed the North joining – quite an achievement for the ing three times in the past six Donald Trump will be willing to Donald Trump was still accusing retary James Mattis is not one of woeful unpreparedness of the US vival. Indeed, the sole reason he the Olympics as well as family young Kim Jong-un. Whether the months. The punitive measures reward the North’s putative con- him of “appeasing” the North. them. He, too, warned just before that the US is “closer to a nuclear inclined to see over time that the to nuclear war. Targeted military and their victory would be a as it descended into the Korean is amassing a nuclear arsenal is reunions and possible North- country now has between 20 and have become progressively oner- cessions. Neither does he have to Moon is not picking a public Christmas that “storm clouds are war with North Korea” than ever. rhetoric seems to be where the strikes, a “kick in the shin” and a foregone conclusion, the conse- War in 1950. There is still time to forestall meeting to same fate South military talks. 30 devices, as most estimates put ous and by now resemble an eco- worry about Kim driving a wedge fight. Indeed, he has been praising gathering.” Similar talk could be He added that he did not “see President is,” Mullen said in his “bloody nose” are topics of dis- quences of a war remain incal- for diplomacy, Mattis said, but as Saddam Hussein or Muam- Relief was felt the world over. it, or even more than 50, as the nomic blockade. Even if the North between the US and South Korea. the US president: “I think Trump overheard in many conversations opportunities to solve this diplo- television interview. cussion in Washington. For some culable. Not only does the North “there is very little reason for mar al-Gaddafi. He is striving for The standoff over North Korea’s Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Koreans have become inured to the Moon has reacted very posi- deserves big credit for bringing with politicians, diplomats and matically at this particular point.” In the conflict with North time now, South Korean and US have 1.2 million soldiers under optimism.” unassailability. nuclear program had escalated Agency suspects, the Pyongyang hardest deprivations, even starva- tively to the North’s offer of talks, about the inter-Korean talks, and think tank analysts: The situa- For Mullen, Trump’s martial Korea, Washington has not special forces have been training arms and some 13,500 artillery While Kim is not unassailable, sharply in 2017. The regime regime has established itself tion, the regime cannot afford to and no wonder; the presence of I want to show my gratitude. It tion in Korea is “very danger- rhetoric shares responsibility for taken the military option off the for a “decapitation strike” against pieces aimed at the south, these the price of a military strike to tested about 20 rockets last year, among the global nuclear elite. It completely seal itself off the coun- North Korean athletes, officials could be the result of US-led sanc- ous” and “highly explosive”; escalating the conflict. It was table. On the contrary, talk of a the North Korean regime. are also aimed directly at Seoul, MATTHIAS NASS destroy North Korea’s nuclear including three ICBMs. Pyong- has even claimed nuclear (albeit try from the outside world. and spectators guarantees the tions and pressure.” North Korea’s habit of nuclear Trump who threatened “fire and preemptive strike became louder As realistic as such scenarios just 30 miles from the border and is an international weapons would be terribly high yang now claims its warheads “asymmetric”) parity with the This is the underlying reason Winter Games will be shielded No, Moon is not naïve. He brinkmanship could lead us to fury” last summer, who warned at year’s end. Some planners in may be, the idea of a “surgical home to 10 million inhabitants, correspondent for the German weekly Die Zeit – a price that no one in their right could reach the entire United US. Confronting Washington on for the recent moves toward de- from Pyongyang’s disruption. But did not fail to hear that in addi- the abyss. Admiral Mike Mullen, the UN to “totally destroy” North the Pentagon apparently believe strike” has proven often enough with 15 million more living close and author of Countdown mind could condone. States. The North also tested a equal footing, forcing America’s escalation. The tactic has worked Moon continues his explicit sup- tion to offering dialogue to the former Chairman of the Joint Korea and accused “little rocket that a war can be limited, that it to be pure illusion. While the by. Even if the US could use a in Korea, published in That makes Kim Jong-un com- further nuclear device on Sept. 3, recognition and guaranteeing time and time again: Pyongyang port for Trump’s policy of “maxi- South, Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s Chiefs of Staff, said on Dec. 31 in man” Kim of embarking on a need not inevitably extend to the US and allied forces are vastly preemptive strike to destroy all 2017. mensurately self-confident. He the sixth overall and the strongest the regime’s existence – such are escalates to the limit, springs mum pressure” and insists on address included a second, very an interview on ABC’s This Week suicide mission. “I’m just more whole region, let alone escalate superior to those of the North, North Korea’s nuclear weapons

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20180208_LUER-0316_AZ_SecurityTimes_290x265_EN_V02.indd 1 08.02.18 16:11 34 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 35

SECURITY CHALLENGES SECURITY CHALLENGES

ONE MOUNTAIN TWO TIGERS

GRAPHICS: ST

India sees the Belt and Road Initiative for what it is: evidence of China’s unconcealed ambition for hegemony

BY SAMIR SARAN a shining symbol of its leadership. China now enjoys a 99-year lease, sovereignty. For a country that case the message China sends is alternative by definition cannot At a time when Western powers is perhaps the most obvious exam- has always preferred multipolar- clear: Accede to Chinese interests be exclusive; it must be capable of are turning their focus inward, ple of Beijing’s “debt-trap diplo- ity and multilateralism, both glob- and enjoy good relations, or resist accommodating Beijing’s projects or 73 days between June the BRI is billed by China as its macy.” New Delhi is also acutely ally and regionally, acquiescing and face fury. and security concerns as long as and August 2017, Indian commitment towards globaliza- aware that states in the region to Pax Sinica was never truly an This effort to sabotage the rel- they abide the well-established Fand Chinese troops were tion and integration. Taken at are slipping into China’s orbit, option. evance and the principles of the principles of international law. locked eyeball to eyeball over face value, such grand projects are making it difficult for them to The India-China relationship liberal international order has Only by doing so will the idea of a a small strip of land marking not novel in ambition, nor should criticize Beijing. ASEAN’s inabil- is thus coming to signify a con- prompted the concept of a “free free and open Indo-Pacific provide the tri-junction between India, they be rejected for their intent. ity to develop a cohesive response test for the future of Asia, as and open Indo-Pacific.” First a viable and attractive rules-based PICTURE ALLIANCE / AP PHOTO From president to president: Donald Trump met with Xi Jingping in Beijing on Nov. 9, 2017 Bhutan and China: the Doklam However, the BRI as it stands to China’s maritime aggression in well as the world at large. At made popular by the United States alternative to the autocratic strain Plateau. The clash was ostensi- today is unique in its opacity. the South China Sea underscores issue is whether nation states that when Secretary of State Rex Til- of the BRI. bly triggered by Chinese road Embedded in its strategy is an lerson visited India in October The India-China relationship is construction activities around agenda that ultimately serves 2017, the geographical definition ultimately defined by the differ- disputed territories. But military only one actor – Beijing. The of this space, and the values that ing worldviews of both actors. tensions at Doklam are only the 65 nations that have signed up DEMOCRATIC must define it, has since caught From China’s perspective, India symptom, not the cause of con- for the BRI are relatively small, on in the strategic calculus of – whether through diplomacy, flict. The standoff itself is the low-income and in urgent need ALTERNATIVES BY several regional powers. The coercion or force – must under- naked manifestation of a long of infrastructure finance. By their resuscitated Quadrilateral Secu- stand its place in a hierarchical Commander-in-Xi simmering conflict over regional short-term calculus, the promise rity Dialogue – a partnership of Asian order that pays obeisance primacy. India sees itself as an of China’s seemingly generous DEFINITION CANNOT four maritime powers, including to Beijing. However, according China’s long-term strategy for becoming the world’s number one power indispensable actor in influenc- loans and development partner- India – has coalesced around this to a famous Chinese adage: “One ing the future of the Asian cen- ships outweighs concerns over BE EXCLUSIVE region with the vocal intention of mountain cannot contain two tury. China, on the other hand, political independence, economic providing a democratic bulwark tigers.” Nonetheless, as a con- is intent on shaping a unipolar stability, environmental degra- against China’s unconcealed fident democratic power, India BY KISHORE MAHBUBANI throughout 2016 and 2017. In China had done their calcula- locked in a perilous eyeball-to- South China Sea. Despite its own edly makes clear that China is a Asian order that will be defined dation and sovereignty. When this risk. Further, India views Chi- exercised their hard-won right ambition for hegemony. As a will increasingly exercise its heft theory, as China is seen as an ally tions and decided that the cost eyeball standoff. This, too, could reluctance to submit to interna- more predictable partner. Con- by deference to the Middle King- China hosted its BRI summit in na’s investments in Kashmir as a to self-determination and democ- result, the Indo-Pacific, which to shape the world around it, of North Korea, these tests should of war would be too high; it has have erupted in conflict. Ulti- tional arbitration, the US strongly sequently, the election of Trump dom and its increasingly imperial May 2017, historians were hard- violation of its sovereignty, while racy will now be forced into a spans the West Indian Ocean without being browbeaten by hen Donald Trump have driven a wedge between been estimated that one million mately, China blinked. Both sides supported the judgment of the may prove a useful trump card rulers. pressed to miss the symbolism it sees other regional projects as a client-satellite relationship with and stretches towards the Eastern the dragon. The competition became US president China and the US. Instead, it residents of Seoul could die from agreed to return to status quo international tribunal at the Perma- for China. Nevertheless, China The Belt and Road Initia- of world leaders stepping up to part of China’s “string of pearls,” Beijing as its economic dominance Pacific, is now primed to become over values, norms, ethics and Won Jan. 20, 2017, the managed to highlight the coun- a North Korean artillery barrage ante. India wisely decided not to nent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in remains acutely aware that it must tive (BRI), officially unveiled in shake hands with President Xi – a which are intended to limit India’s continues. Over the past seven the battleground for the future of influence, both within Asia and world could and should have tries’ common interest in pre- on day one of the conflict. crow about its victory. The Hague when it opined on the maintain a calm and stable rela- 2013, is perhaps the most visible 21st-century vision of the Middle rise as a global power. decades, the international liberal the liberal order. around the world, will continue seen a downturn in Sino-Ameri- venting nuclear proliferation and Such is the ultimate paradox of A clear pattern has thus emerged China-Philippines dispute. In July tionship between Trump and Xi demonstration of China’s inten- Kingdom’s ancient tributary For these reasons, aspiring order – as it is often called – was Three imperatives will guide to exacerbate tensions between can relations. During his election maintaining stability in Northeast East Asian security: The differ- in the way China manages the 2016, State Department Spokes- Jinping, and so far it has played tion. The ambitious connectivity system. Through debt, political “leading powers” like India see carefully crafted with the inten- this contest: norms, connectivity India and China. The standoff campaign, Trump had criticized Asia. In an interview with the ences between China and Japan challenges and problems on its man John Kirby offered: “It is a winning hand. project – straddling two oceans influence and outright coercion, the BRI for what it is: an exercise tion of promoting free markets, and security. Regional democra- between the two countries over China fiercely: “We can’t - con Wall Street Journal, Trump made over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands borders. It will stand firm where both our hope and our expecta- Third: On the positive side of and implicating three continents the BRI is a roadmap for struc- in hardwiring influence. As the rule of law and democracy. Lead- cies will have to invest consider- the Doklam Plateau – their most tinue to allow China to rape our a candid admission: “After listen- continue unabated; the differ- its fundamental interests are tion that China will abide by its the ledger, China is significantly – seeks to create a cohesive eco- tural servility to Beijing. only major country that refused ership with Chinese character- able resources and synergize their serious border conflict since the country, and that’s what they ing for ten minutes [to Xi who ences between China and the four involved. However, it is also ready legally binding obligations under increasing the interdependence nomic and political arrangement Countries with agency and to attend the BRI summit in May, istics, discernable most visibly own connectivity initiatives to 1962 – was likely a prologue for are doing.” He also declared he to make pragmatic adjustments this decision. The world is watch- between China and its neighbors across Eurasia and Africa. Within regional heft are not likely to suc- India cogently argued that con- through the BRI, is ominously address the region’s burgeoning what is to come. would “label China a currency to dial down the temperature on ing to see if China is really the through the Belt and Road Initia- these regions, Beijing has devoted cumb to this lure. Yet India sees nectivity in Asia must be consul- lacking in these qualities. China infrastructure finance demands. manipulator.” any potential bilateral dispute. global power it professes itself tive (BRI). China is already the resources towards building ports, many of its neighbors straddled tative, and guided by transparent has used its trade relationships They will also have to develop SAMIR SARAN A year later, in January 2018, it DESPITE TRUMP’S For example, while the level of to be, and the responsible power number one trading partner of energy pipelines and railways, with bad loans and white elephant financial guidelines, principles of to silence political opposition, political and military partnerships is vice president of the is remarkable how stable the US- trust between China and Japan that it professes itself to be.” In most of its neighbors, including along with investing in close polit- projects, which China uses for good governance, internationally bribed its way towards closer dip- to ensure that states in the region Observer Research China relationship has become. ELECTION CAMPAIGN – two key regional rivals – has September 2016, President Barack Mongolia, North Korea, Paki- ical relationships and military strategic leverage. Sri Lanka’s recognized environmental and lomatic ties and militarily coerced are capable of resisting Chinese Foundation in New Delhi. What happened? Did Trump not improved, the relationship Obama told the ASEAN leaders in stan, Laos and Vietnam. It could cooperation. For China, the BRI is Hambantota Port, over which labor standards, and respect for many of its neighbors. In each pressure. However, a democratic change? Or did China adapt? has assumed a certain calm and Laos that “the landmark arbitra- also emerge as the biggest investor Did events intervene? Did North AND SUBSEQUENT stability. tion ruling in July, which is bind- in the BRI partner countries. Over Korea help or hurt? And why is China being prag- ing, helped to clarify maritime time, the links between China Security_Times.qxp_290x130 01.02.18 11:24 Seite 1 The real story is a complex one. PROVOCATIONS … matic in the short term? The rights in the region.” By defusing and its “near abroad” will only Just as the ancient Chinese emper- answer is simple. Chinese leaders, tensions with its neighbors, China become stronger. Already, 85 per- ors perfected the art of “barbar- unlike Western leaders, think in is denying the US opportunities to cent of inward and 33 percent ian” management, the current Chi- explained the history of China ASEAN claimant states (Brunei, the long term. They know time intervene in the region. of outward BRI investment goes nese leaders have learned the art and Korea], I realized it’s not so Malaysia, Philippines and Viet- through Singapore. of “America” management. They easy. I felt pretty strongly that nam) in the South China Sea It will not all be a smooth sail- know that American presidential they had a tremendous power remain unresolved; new tensions ing. Growing interdependence candidates must criticize China in over North Korea. But it’s not have emerged between China and … CHINA DECIDED TO can create challenges. After the election campaigns. President Bill what you would think.” This is South Korea over the deployment Chinese built the Hambantota Clinton threatened in 1992 that why both Trump and Xi Jinping of the American THAAD Radar TAKE THE INITIATIVE port in Sri Lanka, debt payments he would never “mollycoddle the announced in Florida that they System in South Korea; China has became too onerous for the Sri butchers of Beijing.” But just a would cooperate on North Korea. frozen its relations with South Lankan government, which year later, at the APEC Economic Nevertheless, North Korea’s Korea and encouraged massive TO STABILIZE THE US- wisely decided to hand over the Leaders’ Meeting in November provocations continued, and each boycotts; the number of Chinese port to Chinese firms on a 99-year 1993, I personally saw Bill Clin- time America promised retalia- tourists visiting South Korea CHINA RELATIONSHIP lease. Other big infrastructure ton “mollycoddle” President Jiang tion. Trump tweeted: “Military plummeted nearly 50 percent projects could create similar bilat- Zemin. It was an amazing sight. solutions are now fully in place, from January to August 2017. eral issues. However, if Chinese This is why despite Trump’s locked and loaded, should North An even more dangerous stand- is on their side. China’s economy China’s long-term strategy of leaders continue their pragmatic election campaign and his subse- Korea act unwisely.” US Ambas- off emerged between China and will become much bigger within a managing its rise to becoming approach, all these issues and quent provocations – e.g. accept- sador to the UN Nikki Haley India when China sent in con- decade, and it is shrewd enough the number one power can be challenges should also be man- ing a congratulatory call from was equally threatening: “If struction teams to extend an exist- to know that both its neighbors described with just a few key aged with deftness. MUNICH OFFERS LOTS OF TOURIST ATTRACTIONS. 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You will also find a 38-seat luxury cinema, the astor@Cinema Lounge (Axel Vervoordt, 2011), which can be rented as a screening in April 2017. Given Trump’s but peace held. Both the US and Chinese and Indian soldiers were potentially derail China’s emer- – paradoxically – Trump’s unpre- will prove as pragmatic as China. room. Axel Vervoordt also designed the multipurpose function room Palais Hall in 2016 and since 2018 we are very pleased to present his newest project - the „South and North wing“ - with 28 rooms and mercurial personality, the meeting gence is still the US, which is dictability has helped China. By Most of China’s neighbors have the luxurious 350-square metre Penthouse Garden Suite. We are very proud and delighted to welcome the MSC guests since 1963 and wish the very best for this important conference this year. could have gone badly. Instead, it another key reason why China is walking away from the Iran deal already adapted to its pragma- went well. KISHORE MAHBUBANI so careful and pragmatic with its and TPP, recognizing Jerusalem as tism. As a result, East Asia is Promenadeplatz 2- 6 Fon +49 89.21 20 - 0 www.bayerischerhof.de Curiously, the issue of North is professor in the Practice of Public Policy at the National neighbors. Each regional dispute the capital of Israel and courting likely to remain calm, even as D-80333 München Fax +49 89.21 20 - 906 [email protected] Korea may have helped. North University of Singapore. He is the author of Has the West presents the US with an opportu- public squabbles with the prime several bilateral issues and ten- Korea carried out provocative Lost it? A Provocation (Penguin, 2018). nity to step in and stir the waters. ministers of key allies like the sions simmer away under the nuclear tests and missile launches This was on full display in the UK and Australia, Trump repeat- surface. 36 The Security Times February 2018

ADVERTORIAL

February 2018 The Security Times 37 Four trends preventing SECURITY BRIEFS us from saving the world

When we started the company back in 1997 I was a tech-geek with tons of energy and ambition. Alas, the world’s increasing fondness of the boomerang doesn’t stop there. For we also I worked hard, loved my job (still do) and sacrificed many things to get to the point where we are 4 have increased militarization of cyberspace to deal with these days. Though they don’t now. Cybersecurity was a niche field with just a few thousand of enthusiasts back then (and we publicize it, more than 30 countries around the world have already created their own all really enjoyed ourselves). No borders, no nationalities, no politics at all – just like scientists cyber-militaries and are treating cyberspace as a strategic domain. I sincerely hope that a contain- from over the world working together to fight, say, cancer or HIV. What I’ve never wanted to get ment policy similar to the one that has helped us avoid nuclear war will act as a restraining force involved in was politics – and have never needed to actually, despite all the rumors and hearsay. against serious state-sponsored cyberattacks. The effects and consequences of cyberwar, in my Security Briefs Our one top priority has always been straightforward: to make a technically superior product. And opinion, should never be underestimated or romanticized. that’s exactly what we’ve been busy with all these years. Our small, low-key cybersecurity world I’ve already expressed my concerns about geopolitics having a negative impact on global cyber- has never been in geopolitical crossfire like now. But the worrying emerging trends in the global security, but I’ll do so again. Cyberthreats have become a global problem that has spread far cybersecurity industry are ever more ironic in this context. These trends have unquestionably beyond any geographical borders. We are determined to detect and neutralize any and all forms affected our company over the last year – but you can never really be sure for whom the bell tolls next. of malicious programs – regardless of their origin or purpose. But to fight the bad guys targeting our economies, our businesses, our savings, our privacy, our personal information – and above all State control and international regulation our safety – we have to be united. 1 of cybersecurity are tools that should be used to fight cybercrime, but instead of development of stronger protection of our vulnerable infrastructure we see a trend of balkanization and cyberspace fragmentation: a very last-century trend for an industry that’s dealing with cutting-edge technolo- gies. Last year’s cyberattacks show that the services that are the backbone of our national economies, security and health are very fragile. And criminals show no mercy for societies’ vital institutions.

There’s a broad consensus among interna- 2 tional economists that protectionism has a negative effect on overall worldwide- eco nomic growth and welfare. Nevertheless, protection- ism is being actively used in the world’s IT industry today: exclusion of foreign companies from regional markets through government regulations is just one

DPA example of this. To me, the situation looks like a Mourning the victims of the Paris attacks in Nov. 2015. The perpetrators were IS returnees from Syria. serious imbalance between government regulation and free market principles. Competition is always good – it allows consumers to choose and enjoy the best products and technologies. When you artificially limit competition there’s a deferred negative effect for BY PETER R. NEUMANN which killed 137 people – was planned and executed by a team all – consumers, developers and vendors. of returnees. Indeed, as time goes ver three years after by and the superficial appeal of the launch of the mili- The threat not over yet the IS brand continues to fade, tary campaign against IS more experienced and ideologi- But what causes me the most frustration is the decline in crucial international cooperation When we’re talking about worldwide cybersecurity, we need to keep one thing at the forefront O the Islamic State, the US-led cally committed members are 3 that took so long to build up. International cybersecurity legislation remains rudimentary; of our minds: the only ones to benefit from global fragmentation and balkanization are criminals. global coalition, together with The Islamic State’s nature and dynamics are certain to change likely to play a bigger role. plus there’s a global deficit of experienced cybersecurity specialists. Those are just two Let’s not make their lives easier by going backward instead of forward. Iraqi and Kurdish forces, have One of the most significant accomplished their mission. facts about IS recruits in Europe reasons to continue international cooperation to fight cybercrime. Temporarily freezing cyberse- Ninety-eight percent of the is their close proximity to “ordi- territory IS once held in Syria its terrorist campaign, it is far propaganda output, which is What’s more, some of the lone attackers planning to use nary” crime. In most Western curity cooperation is like throwing a boomerang and stealing time from yourself. Cybercrime has and Iraq has been recaptured. from certain whether its sup- focusing less on promoting the internal debates have become unsophisticated weapons such European countries, more than no physical boundaries, so building them between international law enforcement agencies and The caliphate’s most important porters will respond with the utopia that IS had supposedly critical of the organization. Even as knives, machetes, hammers half of the group’s recruits have cities, Raqqa and Mosul, are same enthusiasm they showed in created, but increasingly com- its most passionate supporters or vehicles. Although many of criminal pasts, often as members cybersecurity companies is highly inefficient at best, dangerous at worst. no longer controlled by jihad- 2014 when the caliphate seemed prises crude and, arguably, des- can now be observed question- them had previously been on of gangs, drug dealers, thieves ists. And of the 40,000 men unstoppable. And while return- perate exhortations to attack ing whether IS, which had pro- security agencies’ “radar,” few or burglars. For many of these who once fought for IS, only ing foreign fighters will become Western targets. During the last claimed a thousand-year Reich had terrorist training or were young men, joining IS was a way 3,000 are thought to remain, more significant in terrorist plots, week of 2017 alone, the group and whose motto is “remaining capable of handling explosives. of seeking redemption. In the hiding in the desert and hoping this will not automatically result published four high-quality and expanding,” can survive its The steady trickle of returning words of a Danish fighter, “it’s to survive. in a higher number of attacks, videos seeking to inspire attacks physical destruction. The excite- fighters, who have spent time not good enough just praying Needless to say, the situation but more likely an increase in on New Year’s Eve. ment and enthusiasm that per- in terrorist training camps and with all the shit I’ve done.” Eugene Kaspersky is a world-renowned cybersecurity expert and successful Wishing to combine their successful track record of antivirus program- is not quite as rosy as the statis- their complexity. However, this tells us little meated these forums in 2014 and participated in the Syrian civil This currently provides IS with tics suggest. While much of the In short, the IS terrorist cam- about the extent to which the 2015 is gone. war, will change this. Like in many advantages. Not only do entrepreneur. He is Chief Executive Officer of Kaspersky Lab, the world’s larg- ming with their entrepreneurial vision, Eugene and his colleagues decided territory has been recaptured, paign will not simply stop, as too group’s message continues to res- At the same time, it would be previous conflicts, only a minor- their European followers find est privately-held vendor of endpoint protection and cybersecurity solutions. to establish their own independent company. In 1997 Kaspersky Lab was IS as an organization continues many people have been drawn onate. In fact, there is no evidence a mistake to declare the terrorist ity of the returnees will become it easy to acquire weapons and Eugene began his career in cybersecurity accidentally when his computer founded, with Eugene heading the company’s antivirus research. In 2007 he to exist, and none of the politi- into the jihadist orbit over the that the physical caliphate has threat to be over. The Syrian civil involved in terrorism. But their forged documents, many have cal conflicts that fuelled its rise past five years. But its physi- morphed into a “virtual” one, as war and the rise of IS have reju- numbers could be sufficient to been radicalized and recruited became infected with the ‘Cascade’ virus in 1989. Eugene’s specialized educa- was named Kaspersky Lab’s CEO. – most importantly, the Syrian cal decline raises serious doubts is often alleged. On the contrary, venated the global jihadist move- professionalize Islamic State’s in prisons where criminal and tion in cryptography helped him analyze the encrypted virus, understand its Today Kaspersky Lab is one of the fastest growing IT security vendors civil war – have been resolved. about the long-term trajectory the group’s propaganda output ment. More than 5,000 West- campaign in Europe by insert- jihadist milieus overlap. When behavior, and then develop a removal tool for it. After successfully removing worldwide, operating in almost 200 countries and territories worldwide. The Moreover, IS has never just been and viability of the Islamic State has severely declined since its ern Europeans have traveled ing experienced fighters who released, they have funded their the virus, Eugene’s curiosity and passion for computer technology drove him to company employs more than 3,800 professionals and IT security specialists a territorial project, but also a as a project and organization. peak in 2015. According to my to Syria, with thousands more have worked in teams, know attacks through petty crime – utopia and a transnational ter- There can be no doubt that the colleague Charlie Winter, more who have cheered the group’s how to build bombs and have be it by trading in counterfeit start analyzing more malicious programs and developing disinfection modules in 35 dedicated regional offices across 31 countries, and its cybersecurity rorist network that has attracted demise of the physical caliphate than three-quarters of IS media victories from home. Since the the charisma and credibility goods, dealing drugs or stealing for them. This exotic collection of antivirus modules would eventually become technologies protect over 400 million users worldwide. and inspired tens of thousands has had an impact on the group’s offices, which produced the daily attack on the Jewish Museum in that result from being jihad people’s wallets. the foundation for Kaspersky Lab’s antivirus database. Today the database is Kaspersky Lab’s globally renowned team of experts has investigated some of followers from all over the strategy. Long gone are the days deluge of propaganda videos and Brussels in May 2014, jihadists veterans. However, the nexus between world. when the self-declared caliph, online magazines, have closed have been responsible for plot- It may be no accident that crime and terror can go both one of the most comprehensive and complete collections in cybersecurity, of the most complex and sophisticated cyberattacks ever known, including What does its military defeat Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was down. “It is almost as if someone ting more than a hundred attacks Islamic State’s most devastat- ways. At the moment it is fueling used in detecting and preventing systems from being infected by more than Stuxnet, Flame, and Red October. The company also cooperates extensively in Syria and Iraq mean for the calling on Muslims across the has pressed the mute button,” he in Europe. In 41 instances they ing operation in Europe – the terrorism and helping to facili- 500 million malicious programs. with INTERPOL, Europol, and national police bodies to actively assist them group’s ability to carry out ter- world to abandon their “deca- wrote in a recent article. were successful. November 2015 attacks in Paris, tate attacks against innocent rorist attacks? Will its terrorist dent homelands” and migrate to Instead of populating main- While the chances are slim civilians. But if Islamic State is Further pursuing his passion for defensive technologies, in 1990 Eugene in their fight against cybercrime. campaign in Europe, which has the IS. For more than a year now, stream social media platforms that this campaign will sud- no longer seen as credible, suc- started gathering a team of like-minded enthusiast researchers to create the Eugene has an Honorary Doctorate of Science from the UK’s Plymouth targeted Paris, London, Brus- the group has been telling its fol- such as Facebook and Twitter, denly come to an end, its PETER R. NEUMANN cessful or sufficiently “cool” to AVP Toolkit Pro antivirus program, which four years later was recognized by University. He regularly gives both lectures on cybersecurity at universities sels, Berlin, Stockholm and other lowers to stay where they are and IS supporters have been pushed nature and dynamics are cer- is professor of security attract attention, some of their major European cities, continue? fight the infidels “where it hurts into the darker corners of the tain to change. So far, less than studies at King’s College recruits may return to their crim- the University of Hamburg as the most effective antivirus software in the world. around the globe, and keynotes at leading conferences and industry events. No one can predict with confi- them most.” Rather than being internet, especially the private one-fifth of the jihadist plots London and serves as inal pasts. What started out as a director of the International dence where or what the IS will one of several options, terrorism messaging app Telegram, where in Europe involved attackers Centre for the Study of quest for a global caliphate may be in five years’ time. Although is now presented as a duty. reaching out to new supporters who had been fighters in Syria. Radicalisation (ICSR). ultimately end up as a bunch of the group may wish to intensify This is reflected in the group’s is more difficult. Nearly two-thirds consisted of local gang. 38 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 39

SECURITY BRIEFS SECURITY BRIEFS

BY DAN SMITH talks on its replacement nor any The combination of a sense that ment in the global body politic. firmly inscribed in this treaty than objective would be. The question in sight. That means that there are arms control does not work, does The infection is long-lasting and in the CFE, for example. must be whether the pace of arms currently no meaningful nuclear not go far enough and has weak has taken hold slowly. Long This hint that the prospects of control will match the pace of he arms control horizon arms reduction talks involving the prospects weakens the will and before Crimea and Ukraine, the arms control are not governed arms development. is both grim and complex, leading nuclear powers. willingness to support the current Obama administration wanted purely by a priori politics – that Uncomfortable questions also Tbogged down by a triple The idea of Russia and the US nuclear non-proliferation regime. to push the reset button in US- strategic considerations also play emerge over cyber security. While DETERRENCE IN THE CYBER AGE tangle of geopolitical, strategic opting for an unrestrained nuclear It is jeopardized even more when Russia relations, which had a part – is reflected in the case it has become a cliché to say that, and technological factors while arms race seems improbable due the US president persistently casts crashed after the war in Geor- of the INF Treaty, about which in the next war, the first attack reflecting the depth and difficulty to its expense and peril. But that doubt on a non-proliferation mea- gia in August 2008. But even Russia has been increasingly will occur in cyberspace, the of today’s security dilemmas. view rests on the belief or hope sure that is working effectively – before Georgia, arms control uncomfortable since 2007. That more uncomfortable thought is Preventing a cyber-Pearl Harbor is not the only digital challenge nation states face The continued inability to move that they will prefer moderation; the Joint Comprehensive Plan of had been limping as Russia was the year when discussion that the first attacks have already forward risks deepening them, it does not rest on evidence of a Action, better known as the “Iran sought a return to a position of surfaced within NATO about occurred. This line of thinking yet even small advances could practical commitment to further nuclear deal,” which efficiently global strength and saw many placing ballistic missile defenses suggests that cyber warfare erodes signal and encourage an easing arms control. albeit temporarily blocks Iran’s of the arms control agreements in Eastern Europe. This move the boundary between war and of global tensions. As for conventional weapons, path to nuclear weapons. to which it was then bound was seen as a potential threat peace. The cyber vulnerability In the 1970s, Cold War arms Russia pulled out of the Conven- A good part of the explanation as products of earlier Russian to Russia’s ability to sustain its of critical infrastructure ranging control negotiations were a key tional Forces in Europe (CFE) of why arms control has reached weakness. nuclear deterrence; thus, in 2008 from health systems, finance and element of US-Soviet détente. Treaty in an extended process this point of stasis lies in Russia’s Even in this atmosphere, how- it began testing ground-launched public transport to energy gen- When relations deteriorated, arms that concluded in 2015. The relationship with the US and its ever, it was still possible to agree cruise missiles (GLCM) capable of eration and communications is control stalled and became an irri- core Russian argument was that allies. Many of arms control’s to New START in 2010, which a range banned by the INF Treaty. recognized as an essential issue tant. But as change in the Soviet NATO’s enlargement meant that most significant difficulties have may in part be due to Russia’s It is not possible to aver with cer- for national security. Its potential Union unfolded and the Cold War the equity of the original caps been symptoms of a larger ail- view that equality was much more tainty that, absent missile defense, impact explains some experts’ came to a close, arms control and on equipment numbers had been Russia would not have developed perspective that cyber warfare arms reductions were suddenly lost. And furthermore, despite and tested GLCMs; history is full will take precedence – or already never more popular or attainable repeated efforts by the Organiza- of ex post rationalizations and does take precedence – over among the international powers tion for Security and Cooperation is far from devoid of weapons kinetic warfare. with most at stake. in Europe (OSCE), there is no technologies looking for a role And, of course, there are night- On the nuclear front, two progress and scant active discus- and rationale. But it is at least a mare threats such as cyber attacks US-Soviet treaties set the pace. sion of confidence and security possibility worth acknowledging taking over the kinetic warfare The 1987 Intermediate Nuclear building measures. that, as so often is the case in the abilities of a state, including Forces (INF) Treaty removed all What some may regard as the arms race, one side’s defensive hacking into largely autonomous ground-launched nuclear and biggest failure of arms control lies measures look offensive to the weapon systems and into the con- conventional missiles (and their outside of the normal negotiating other. trol of nuclear weapon systems. launchers) of any range from 500 arenas of such agreements. North In short, with positive or nega- This eventuality would seem to to 5,500 kilometers. The Strategic Korea’s successful programs of tive effect, choices of military necessitate international regula- Arms Reduction Treaty (START), ballistic missile and nuclear weap- strategy can have a political tions to bring these fields of cyber signed in July 1991, reduced each ons development, despite nine impact – and arms control con- espionage and cyber terrorism side to 6,000 strategic nuclear UN Security Council resolutions siderations can either be a part under control. All states have an warheads on a maximum of 1,600 imposing sanctions, have frus- of the choice or fall victim to the interest in limiting this sphere of delivery vehicles (bombers and trated a major international non- WHITHER impact. human activity, yet current tech- missiles). As the Soviet Union proliferation effort. North Korea The challenges for arms control nology developments make abun- broke up, Belarus, Kazakhstan probably has a current arsenal of that are set by the politics of US- dantly clear the profundity of and Ukraine renounced nuclear some 20 to 30 deployable nuclear Russian relations and the impact the problems we face in terms of weapons ambitions (as did post- warheads. It has the irrefutable of strategic choices are exacer- arms control, especially when the apartheid South Africa in the capacity to hit regional powers bated by current developments politics of arms control exhibit so course of its own transforma- with ballistic missile strikes and ARMS in arms-related technologies. A little hope. tion). Although the negotiation probably the ability to strike cer- key example is the increasing fea- There are feasible responses to of a follow-on treaty took almost tain American targets. It is more sibility of autonomy in weapon all the challenges facing arms con- two decades, in 2010 Russia and than likely that it will be able to systems. It is now well within trol. The difficulties with the INF the US signed New START, lim- deploy nuclear missiles capable of the bounds of technological pos- Treaty in an age of missile defense iting each side to 1,550 strategic reaching targets in the continental sibility that weapon systems with could be brought into the realm nuclear warheads deployed on United States within an uncom- CONTROL? autonomy in both acquiring and of negotiation in lieu of a sterile 700 strategic delivery systems. fortably short period of time. striking targets will be deployed. blame game. New START can be Overall, the number of nuclear On the other hand, impatience It is by no means beyond the extended beyond 2021 and nego- weapons worldwide fell from at the retention of nuclear weap- bounds of possibility that such tiations on a replacement could some 65,000–70,000 at peak to ons by a handful of states has weapons systems could be begin now. These measures would 14,945 at the end of 2016 (as per been steadily growing among deployed in an offensive as well as help quell the impatience of the latest reliable data point). many non-nuclear weapon defensive mode and consequently non-nuclear weapon states, as Conventional arms control states. The central bargain of The future of arms control used in fast-paced contexts of would other limited steps such as DPA/IKON IMAGES was equally dramatic. The 1990 the 1970 Nuclear Non-Prolifer- combat. As extraordinary as such those that address nuclear safety Treaty on Conventional Armed ation Treaty (NPT) was that the remains in the hands of Russia scenarios may sound, weapons and the availability of fissile mate- Forces in Europe capped at equal nuclear have-nots would remain systems capable of autonomous rials. These actions could reestab- levels the numbers of heavy weap- have-nots while the nuclear haves and the US decision-making vis-à-vis target- lish the unity of purpose needed to ons deployed between the Atlantic took steps to divest themselves ing are no more unthinkable than prevent further nuclear prolifera- and the Urals by the states of of their nuclear weapons. The self-driving cars. tion. Negotiations on autonomy NATO and the Warsaw Pact, US and Russia have dramatically This prospect raises discomfit- in weapons systems can be accel- binding the latter states even after reduced their arsenals but have ing questions about what used to erated and the development of the behaviors such as crime, which and credibility of the deterrent than the instruments used. It is policy, and perhaps its behavior They should also pay attention to the Pact itself fell apart. shown no signs of readiness for be called the Laws of War, now technology slowed. Additional BY JOSEPH S. NYE, JR. governments strive only imper- instrument. As such, cyber deter- more difficult to deter attacks that as well. On Sept. 25, 2015, Presi- the mechanisms of entanglement This was not all. Other arms complete elimination, except in known as International Humani- resources can be funneled into fectly to deter. Moreover, cyber rence resembles the concept of do not reach the equivalence of an dent Barack Obama and President and norms. Entanglement can control milestones of the period occasional rhetoric such as Pres- tarian Law. Under the Geneva cyber security while the capaci- yber security is a rela- deterrence need not be limited extended deterrence, in which a armed attack. Hybrid warfare, as Xi Jinping agreed that neither alter the cost-benefit calculation include the Chemical Weapons ident Barack Obama’s Prague Convention (Article 36 of Addi- ties of this field are harnessed for tively new foreign policy to cyber responses. The politi- state attempts to protect an ally. in Ukraine, and information war- government would “conduct or of a major state such as China, Convention signed in 1993, the speech in 2009. More tersely, tional Protocol 1), parties are improved verification of other Cproblem. A decade ago cal scientist Robert Jervis identi- knowingly support cyber-enabled but it probably has little effect Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Trump has reiterated the dream bound to review the legality of all arms control measures. it received little attention, but in fied “three waves of deterrence theft of intellectual property” for on a state such as North Korea, Treaty in 1996 and the Arms of a nuclear-free world but, in the new weapons, means or methods These and many other positive 2013 the US Director of National theory” in the nuclear era. Theo- economic advantage. which is weakly linked to the Trade Treaty in 2013. meantime, like his predecessor in of warfare before they are used developments can be achieved on Intelligence James Clapper rizing about deterrence in the THE ANSWER TO The answer to whether a policy international economic system. Today’s scene is rather differ- the White House, has opted to in armed conflict. How would the single and simple condition declared cyber security risks to cyber era is emerging from only of deterrence can work in cyber- It affects non-state actors in dif- ent. The Comprehensive Test-Ban remain energetically engaged in autonomous weapons respect that the two central players – the be the biggest threat facing the its first wave. WHETHER A POLICY space depends on how, who and ferent ways; some cyber criminals Treaty has not come into force the nuclear weapons business. such laws? Would they – could US and Russia – both decide they nation. There are four major mecha- what. Ambiguities of attribution are like parasites that know they because a number of key states For most of the non-nuclear they – actually be required to? want to. And that is the ultimate In 1996, only 36 million people nisms to reduce and prevent and the diversity of adversaries do will suffer if they kill their host, have not ratified it, including the weapon states, this is simply not An arms control framework has issue: The future of arms control or about 1 percent of the world adverse action in cyberspace: OF DETERRENCE CAN not make deterrence and dissua- but some dark-web criminals and US, China, Pakistan, India and good enough, which is why 122 been found for discussing these lies in their hands. population used the internet. In threat of punishment, denial by sion impossible, but punishment terrorists may be indifferent to the North Korea. The US and Russia of them voted for the Treaty weapons, but implementation has a mere two decades, that grew defense, entanglement and nor- occupies a smaller part of the damage they do. accuse one another of violating on the Prohibition of Nuclear been slow. Few governments have WORK IN CYBERSPACE DAN SMITH to half the world population. mative taboos. None of these policy space than in the case of Stability in cyberspace is diffi- the 1987 INF Treaty. Though Weapons – usually known as the defined positions and discussions is director of the Now with big data, artificial four mechanisms is perfect, but nuclear weapons. Punishment is cult to predict, because the speed New START is being imple- “nuclear ban” – and 50 signed have thus far been purely infor- Stockholm International intelligence and the “Internet of together they illustrate the range DEPENDS ON HOW, possible against both states and of technological innovation in the mented, its agreed expiration date up on the first day it was open mal. It is unclear if or when nego- Peace Research Institute. Things,” the number of internet of means by which it is possible criminals, but attribution prob- cyber realm is greater than in the is 2021, and there are no current for signature. tiations will start or what their connections may grow to a trillion to reduce the likelihood of adverse WHO AND WHAT lems often slow and blunt its nuclear realm. Over time, better by 2030. The attack surface will acts causing harm. They can com- deterrent effects. Denial – through attribution forensics may enhance expand, the number of actors will plement one other by affecting computer hygiene, defense and the role of punishment; and better increase and attribution will be actors’ perceptions of the costs In the cyber realm, the effective- fare exploit such gray zones. The resilience – plays a larger role defenses through encryption or difficult. Can deterrence work in and benefits of particular actions. ness of deterrence depends on 2016 Russian disruption of the in dealing with non-state actors machine learning may increase the such a world? There is also an element of learn- whom (state or non-state) one is US presidential campaign fell into than with major states whose role of denial. The currently sup- Talk of a “cyber-Pearl Harbor” ing involved as states develop a trying to deter from which of their such a gray area, and the Obama intelligence services can formu- posed advantage of offense over first appeared in the 1990s amid more sophisticated understanding behaviors. Ironically, deterring administration has been criticized late an advanced persistent threat. defense may change over time. warnings about contaminated of the costs that are incurred in major states from acts of force for its inadequate response. For With time and effort, a major Cyber learning is also impor- water supplies, disrupted finan- cyber warfare and as their eco- may be easier than deterring non- tactical reasons, the administra- military or intelligence agency is tant. As states and organizations cial systems and collapsed power nomic dependence on the internet state actors from actions that do tion held back until too late, and likely to penetrate most defenses, come to better understand the grids. Despite many smaller grows. Policy analysis focusing not rise to the level of force. The the Trump administration failed but the combination of threat of limitations and uncertainties of attacks, such disasters have not solely on punishment may miss threat of a “bolt from the blue” by to follow up. The result was inad- punishment plus effective defense cyber attacks and the growing yet occurred. Does that suggest some of the most important politi- a major state has probably been equate deterrence and grave con- can influence their calculations of importance of the internet to their that some kinds of deterrence cal behavior that indicates deter- exaggerated. Major state actors cerns for the future. costs and benefits, and thus far economic wellbeing, cost-benefit work in the cyber age, or is it just rence and dissuasion are work- are more likely to be entangled Yet even in gray zones, some most attacks have involved gray calculations regarding the util- too soon to know? ing in the cyber realm despite in interdependent relationships progress has been made on zones rather than Pearl Harbors. ity of cyber warfare may change Deterrence means dissuading the problem of attribution. In than are many non-state actors. deterrence. For years, the United Policy analysts should not limit just as nuclear learning altered someone from doing something fact, while attribution is crucial American declaratory policy has States complained that China’s themselves to the classic instru- analysts’ understanding of the by making them believe that the for punishment, it is not impor- made clear that deterrence is not cyber espionage for commercial ments of nuclear deterrence – costs of nuclear warfare. Not all costs to them will exceed their tant for deterrence by denial or limited to cyber-against-cyber, advantage subverted fair trade punishment and denial – as they cyber attacks are of equal impor- expected benefit. Understanding entanglement. although that is possible; deter- and had enormous costs for the assess the possibility of deterrence tance; not all can be deterred; deterrence in cyberspace is often Because deterrence rests on per- rence can also be cross-domain or US economy. China, and other and dissuasion in cyberspace. and not all rise to the level of sig- difficult, because our minds are ceptions, its effectiveness depends cross-sector with any weapons of governments, lumped commer- nificant national security threats. captive to Cold War images of on answers not just to the question its choice, including naming and cial espionage with general spying The lesson for policymakers is deterrence as threatening massive “how” but also to the questions shaming, economic sanctions and and rejected the development of to focus on the most important JOSEPH S. NYE, JR. retaliation to a nuclear attack by “who” and “what.” A threat, nuclear weapons. a norm that would limit their is a professor at the Harvard attacks as well as to understand nuclear means. The analogy to defense, entanglement or norm The United States and other exploitation of stolen intellec- Kennedy School and author the full range of mechanisms at nuclear deterrence is misleading, that may deter some actors may countries have asserted that the tual property. The US indictment of the essay “Deterrence their disposal and the contexts in however, because the aim there is not deter others. Similarly, it may laws of armed conflict apply in of five Chinese military officers and Dissuasion in which attacks can be prevented. Cyberspace” in International total prevention. succeed in regard to some actions cyberspace. For a cyber operation for cyber theft plus the threat of One size does not fit all, and that GRAPHIC: SIPRI In contrast, many aspects of but not others. Much depends on to be treated as an armed attack further sanctions seems to have Security. is the key to understanding deter- cyber behavior are more like other how actors perceive the capability depends on its consequences rather changed Chinese declaratory rence in the cyber age. 40 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 41

SECURITY BRIEFS SECURITY BRIEFS The new weapons of mass destruction? Building a lethal autonomous weapon is easier than building a self-driving car. A new treaty is necessary

BY RONALD ARKIN pathos and hype while focusing on Smart autonomous weapons sys- BY STUART RUSSELL All of the component technologies – flight Compliance with international humanitar- the real technical, legal, ethical and tems may enhance the survival of control, swarming, navigation, indoor and ian law, even if achievable, is not sufficient to moral implications. noncombatants. Human Rights outdoor exploration and mapping, obstacle justify proceeding with an arms race involving et me unequivocally state: Numerous factors point to auton- Watch considers the use of pre- eginning in 2014, the High Contract- avoidance, detecting and tracking humans, tac- lethal autonomous weapons. President Obama: The status quo with respect omous robots soon being able to cision-guided munitions in urban ing Parties of the Convention on Cer- tical planning, coordinated attack – have been “I recognize that the potential development Lto innocent civilian casual- outperform humans on the battle- settings to be a moral imperative. Btain Conventional Weapons (CCW) demonstrated. Building a lethal autonomous of lethal autonomous weapons raises questions ties is utterly and wholly unaccept- field from an ethical perspective: In effect, there may be mobile have held meetings at the United Nations weapon, perhaps in the form of a multi-rotor that compliance with existing legal norms – if able. I am not in favor of Lethal • They are able to act conser- precision-guided munitions that in Geneva to discuss possible limitations on micro-unmanned aerial vehicle, is easier than that can be achieved – may not by itself resolve, Autonomous Weapon Systems vatively, as they do not need to result in a similar moral impera- the development and deployment of lethal building a self-driving car, since the latter is and that we will need to grapple with more (LAWS) nor of lethal weapons protect themselves in cases of low tive for their use. Such weapons autonomous weapons systems (AWS). In held to a far higher performance standard and fundamental moral questions about whether of any sort. I would hope that certainty of target identification. have the possibility of deciding November 2017, the CCW convened a must operate without error in a vast range and to what extent computer algorithms should LAWS would never when to fire and – more formal Group of Governmental Experts of complex situations. This is not “science be able to take a human life.” need to be used, as I importantly – when not (GGE), chaired by India’s Ambassador to fiction.” Autonomous weapons do not have One of the “fundamental moral questions” am against killing in to fire. They should be the UN Amandeep Singh Gill, with a man- to be humanoid, conscious and evil. And the is the effect of autonomous weapons systems all its manifold forms. Robot designed with overrides date to “assess questions related to emerging capabilities are not “decades away” as claimed on the security of member states and their But if humanity per- to ensure meaningful technologies in the area of lethal autono- by some countries. peoples. On this matter, the message of the sists in entering into human control. More- mous weapons systems.” This article reflects UN Special Rapporteur Christof Heyns, AI community, as expressed in the letters warfare, which is an imperative over, they can employ views shared by a great many in the artificial Human Rights Watch, the International Com- mentioned above, has been clear: Because unfortunate underlying fundamentally different intelligence community. These views were mittee of the Red Cross and other experts have they do not require individual human super- assumption, we must tactics while assum- expressed in an open letter on July 28, 2015, expressed concerns about the ability of autono- vision, autonomous weapons are potentially protect the innocent The moral obligation of using ing far more risk than signed by over 3,700 AI researchers, and in mous weapons to comply with provisions scalable weapons of mass destruction; an noncombatants in the human warfighters in a letter to the Obama administration written of international humanitarian law regarding essentially unlimited number of such weapons battlespace far better AI to reduce atrocities terms of protecting non- on April 4, 2016, by 41 leading American AI military necessity, proportionality and dis- can be launched by a small number of people. than we currently do. combatants and assess- researchers, including almost all of the living crimination between combatants and civilians. This is an inescapable logical consequence Technology can and ing hostility and hostile presidents of AAAI, the main professional Discrimination is probably feasible in most situ- of autonomy. As a result, we expect that should be used toward that end. • The eventual development and intent. In essence, these systems society for artificial intelligence. The British ations, even if not perfectly accurate. However, autonomous weapons will reduce human Is it not our responsibility as sci- use of a broad range of sensors can more effectively operate on a AI community sent a similar letter to then determining proportionality and necessity is security at the individual, local, national and entists to look for effective ways will render robots better equipped philosophy of “First do no harm” Prime Minister David Cameron. most likely not feasible for current AI systems international levels. to reduce man’s inhumanity to than humans for battlefield obser- rather than “Shoot first and ask The UN defines autonomous weapons as and would have to be established in advance It is estimated, for example, that roughly one its fellow man through technol- vations. questions later.” having the capacity to “locate, select and elimi- with reasonable certainty by a human opera- million lethal weapons can be carried in a single ogy? Research in ethical military • They can be designed without Building such systems is not nate human targets without human interven- tor for all attacks the weapons may undertake container truck or cargo aircraft, perhaps with robotics can and should be applied emotions that would otherwise a short-term goal, but rather tion.” Some have proposed alternative defini- during a mission. This requirement would only 2 or 3 human operators rather than 2 or 3 toward achieving this goal. cloud their judgment or result in part of a medium- to long-term tions – for example, the UK Ministry of Defence therefore limit the scope of missions that could million. Such weapons would be able to hunt I have studied ethology – animal anger and frustration with ongoing agenda addressing many challeng- says that autonomous weapons systems must legally be initiated. for and eliminate humans in towns and cities, The considerations of the preceding para- BY KIM MIN-SEOK operations and have experience to replace the Songgolmae. On behavior in their natural environ- battlefield events. ing research questions. However, “understand higher-level intent and direction” Another important component of interna- even inside buildings. They would be cheap, graph apply principally to weapons designed in developing norms and rules of the division level, an indigenous ment – as a basis for robotics for my • They avoid the human psycho- exploiting bounded morality within and “are not yet in existence and are not likely tional humanitarian law is the Martens Clause, for ground warfare and anti-personnel opera- engagement for their use. The US version of the existing KUS-9 entire career, ranging from frogs, logical problem of “scenario fulfill- a narrow mission context helps to to be for many years, if at all.” according to which “the human person remains STUART RUSSELL tions, and are less relevant for naval and aerial onventional warfare tactics, military has actively used drones in drone must be developed and the insects, dogs, birds, wolves and ment,” which contributed to the achieve better performance with Much of the discussion at the UN has been under the protection of the principles of human- is a computer science professor combat. It is still the case, however, that “to traditionally maintained Afghanistan and Iraq in efforts to RemoEyes replaced. The Agency human companions. Nowhere has downing of an Iranian airliner by respect to preserving noncomba- stymied by claims that autonomy is a mysteri- ity and the dictates of public conscience.” In this and the Smith-Zadeh Professor in entrust a significant portion of a nation’s through rifles and tanks, eradicate terrorist forces including for Defense Development (ADD) Engineering an the University of C it been more depressing than to the USS Vincennes in 1988. tant life, and thus warrants robust ous, indefinable property. In the view of the regard, Germany has stated that it “will not California, Berkeley. defense capability in any sphere to autonomous artillery, and fighter jets, is now al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Israel will soon complete development study human behavior in the battle- • They can integrate more infor- research on humanitarian grounds. AI community, the notion of autonomy is accept that the decision over life and death is systems is to court instability and risk strategic centered on the rapid innovation was the first country to use a drone of a MALE (medium-altitude field. The commonplace occurrence mation from more sources far faster Other researchers have begun essentially unproblematic in the context of taken solely by an autonomous system” while surprise.” Autonomous weapons in conflict and advancement of IT, artificial militarily and is still plays a leading long-endurance unmanned aerial of slaughtering civilians in conflict than a human possibly could in related work on at least four conti- lethal weapons, which is quite distinct from Japan “has no plan to develop robots with effective, unattributable and easily proliferated with other autonomous weapons must adapt intelligence (AI), avionics and cyber role in the development of weapon vehicles), which is similar to the over millennia gives rise to my pes- real-time before responding with nents. Nonetheless, many daunting the philosophical context of human autonomy. humans out of the loop, which may be capable once the major powers initiate mass produc- their behavior quickly, or their predictability technology in developed countries. zed drones. During a prolonged US MQ-9 Reaper and, aside from simism in reforming human behav- lethal force. questions regarding lethality and The autonomy of lethal weapons is no more of committing murder.” BAE Systems, the tion and the weapons become available on the will lead to defeat. This adaptability is neces- The battlefield is expanding to period of joint military exercises basic reconnaissance capabilities, ior yet provides optimism for the • When working in a team of autonomy remain unresolved. Dis- mysterious than the autonomy of a chess world’s second-largest defense contractor, has international arms market. For the victor they sary but makes autonomous weapons intrinsi- five dimensions – ground, sea, air, with the US, the South Korean could carry air-to-ground mis- prospects of robots being able to combined human soldiers and cussions regarding regulation must program that decides where to move its pieces asserted that it has no intention of developing would have advantages over nuclear weapons cally unpredictable and thus difficult to control. space and cyber. How- siles like the AGM-114 exceed human moral performance autonomous systems, they have be based on reason, not on fear. and which enemy pieces to eliminate. The key autonomous weapons, stating that the removal or carpet bombing: they leave property intact Moreover, the strategic balance between robot- ever, the South Korean Hellfire. in similar circumstances. the potential to independently and Until these questions are resolved, is that the specific targets are not identified and of the human from the loop is “fundamentally and can be applied selectively to eliminate only armed countries can change overnight due to military faces a triple Miniature drones I have the utmost respect for our objectively monitor ethical behav- a moratorium is more appropriate approved – either in advance or at the time of wrong.” those who might threaten an occupying force. software updates or cybersecurity penetration. handicap. Thus, with- on par with America’s young men and women in the bat- ior in the battlefield by all parties than a ban. Only then can a careful, detection – according to human judgment, but At present, the broader public has little Finally, whereas the use of nuclear weapons Indeed, a nation’s autonomous weapons might out technical innova- Droning on WASP UAV are in the tlespace, but they are placed into and to report any infractions that graded introduction of the technol- are instead selected by an algorithm based on awareness of the state of technology and the represents a cataclysmic threshold we have – be turned against its own civilian population. tion, it will be difficult works. They will be situations where no human has may be observed. ogy into the battlespace be ensured. sensory input the algorithm receives after the near-term possibilities, but this will presumably often by sheer luck – avoided crossing since With no possibility of attribution to an external to maintain its combat deployed to the new ever been designed to function. LAWS should not be considered The status quo is unacceptable mission is initiated by a human. change if the killing of humans by autonomous 1945, there is no such threshold with scalable adversary or individual, one can imagine that power. The South Korean military “decapitation” special This is exacerbated by the tempo an end-all military solution. To with respect to noncombatant The feasibility of autonomous weapons is robots becomes commonplace. At that point, autonomous weapons. Attacks could escalate the nation’s government would be less popular The first of Korea’s is catching up forces unit established at which modern warfare is con- the contrary, their use should be deaths. It may be possible to save also not in question, at least for a broad class of the dictates of public conscience will be very smoothly from 100 casualties to 1,000 to after such an event. Finally, the possibility of handicaps is its sur- last year by the South ducted. Given this pace and resul- limited to specific circumstances. noncombatant lives through the use missions that might currently be contemplated. clear, but it may be too late to follow them. 10,000 to 100,000. an accidental war – a military “flash crash” rounding conditions. with a new drone army Korean Army. These tant stress, expecting widespread Current thinking recommends: of this technology, and these efforts involving spiraling and unpredictable high- The Korean Peninsula micro drones provide compliance with international • Specialized missions where should not be prematurely termi- speed interactions among competing algorithms has achieved stabili- intelligence on targets humanitarian law seems unreason- bounded morality applies, e.g. nated by a preemptive ban. AI can – cannot be discounted. zation following the Cold War military has observed the US army’s to the air force and ground troops. able and perhaps unattainable by room clearing, counter-sniper be used to save innocent lives where It seems likely that pursuing an arms race in era, but there are indications of deployment of drones and learned Moreover, the Northrop Grum- flesh-and-blood warfighters. operations or perimeter protection humans may and do fail. Nowhere lethal autonomous weapons would result in a another potential clash between how to use them in combat. It man RQ-4B Global Hawk will be I believe judicious design and in the DMZ. is this more evident than drastic and probably irreversible reduction in land powers such as China and also received technological support introduced in 2018 to conduct sur- the use of LAWS can lead to the • High-intensity inter-state war- on the battlefield. international, national, communal and personal Russia and sea powers like the from Israel when it first developed veillance over the vast territory of potential saving of noncombatant fare, not counter-insurgencies, to security. The only viable alternative is a treaty United States and Japan. its own weaponized drones. Even North Korea. lives. If properly developed and minimize likelihood of civilian that limits the development, deployment Secondly, the threat posed by now, many South Korean compa- In addition to the UAVs, the deployed, it can and should be used casualties. and use of such weapons and prevents the North Korea has increased. The nies in the defense industry develop South Korean Army currently plans towards achieving that end, and • Deployment in concert with large-scale manufacturing that would North boasts an immense conven- military drones through technical to make use of a dog-horse robot not simply about winning wars. soldiers, not as their replace- result in wide dissemination of these tional force of 1.2 million soldiers cooperation with Israel. developed by the defense ministry We must position this humanitar- ment. Human presence scalable weapons. and is becoming an actual nuclear The South Korean Army currently with some $43.34 million invested ian technology at the point where in the battlefield This argument parallels that used state. operates the RQ-101, or Song- from 2006 to 2012. This robot is DARPA war crimes, carelessness and fatal should be main- by leading biologists to convince Thirdly, South Korea faces a steep golmae (wingspan: 6.4 meters), capable of autonomous navigation human error occur and lead to tained. US Presidents Lyndon Johnson “demographic cliff,” and a decrease developed through its homegrown along a set route, short-distance noncombatant deaths. Unmanned and Richard Nixon to renounce in its number of troops is inevitable. technology in 2000, along with surveillance and reconnaissance, as systems will never be able to be America’s biological weapons Thus, the South Korean military is Israeli-made Searcher IIs, while well as mine detection. The army perfectly ethical in the battlefield, program. This in turn led to expected to shrink from its current some Army corps have deployed established a dronebot military but I am convinced that they can the drafting by the United level of 620,000 troops to 500,000 Israel’s Heron drones. While the research center in January 2018. ultimately perform more ethically Kingdom of the Biological by 2022. While the decrease in division level commands the KUS-9 A pilot-scale drone combat unit than human soldiers. Weapons Convention and its manpower has little influence on drone (2014), the regiment level will enter service this year. Drones I am not averse to a ban should subsequent adoption. I think the navy and air force, the biggest uses the RemoEye-15 (2004) and can conduct reconnaissance and we be unable to reach the goal of we can all be glad that those burden will fall upon the 483,000- the RemoEye-006 UAV (2006) execute strikes, while in the long reducing noncombatant casualties; steps were taken. strong army, which will soon be was developed and deployed at term robots can be tasked with but for now we are better served reduced to 365,000 troops. The the battalion level. Defense reforms search missions. by a moratorium, at least until we South Korean military, especially emphasizing drone warfare could The Army also installed a sci- can agree upon definitions regard- the Army, will not be able to cope expand the operational area of entific boundary system south of ing what we are regulating and with the changing military structure corps and divisions by a factor of the demilitarized zone (DMZ). it is determined whether we can and potential future threats unless three to four in the future. This Its high-performance surveillance indeed achieve humanitarian ben- it seeks innovation through drones would also enable network-centric cameras and optical fiber network efits through the use of this technol- and automation. warfare based on a drone system. automatically alert the situation ogy. A preemptive ban ignores the Although the South Korean Furthermore, carrying out the room when infringed upon, allow- moral imperative to use technology military has pushed for defense Kill Chain pre-emptive system ing immediate military reaction. to reduce the persistent atrocities reform since the late 1990s, it has operations to strike down North Once this new boundary system and mistakes that human war- repeatedly failed due to changing Korea’s ballistic missiles in near is fully operational, the number of fighters make. At the very least it administrations, the 1997 Asian real-time now requires raising soldiers stationed in the area can is premature. financial crisis and instability the reconnaissance capabilities of be decreased drastically. Even blind Alternative considerations include resulting from North Korea’s fre- forward units in a groundbreak- spots along the inter-Korean border the following: Regulate autono- quent military provocations. But ing manner. The Army corps also will then be effectively monitored. mous weapons usage instead of a current sense of crisis is pushing needs a next-generation drone When taking into consideration prohibiting them entirely; consider the South Korean government and the demographic cliff, threats restrictions in well-defined circum- the military toward speedy reform. from North Korea and China, and stances rather than an outright ban The development of drones and IT KIM MIN-SEOK the harsh reality of the need for and stigmatization of the weapons technology has caused the South was a researcher at defense reform, the build-up of a systems; do not make decisions Korean army to establish a drone the Korea Institute of drone and robot system in South based on unfounded fears – remove combat unit. General Kim Yong- Defense Analyses from Korea becomes a realistic prospect. 1982 to 1994 before woo, the South Korean Army chief becoming a journalist. Korea’s drone and robot technol- of staff who assumed the post last He was spokesman for ogy is nearing 80 to 85 percent RONALD ARKIN year, intends to change the struc- the South Korean Ministry of the level reached by the highly is Regents' Professor and ture of the Army and shift to new of National Defense advanced countries like the United director of the Mobile warfare tactics based on technol- from 2010 to 2016. He States. Setting up a drone army Robot Laboratory at ogy. The Moon Jae-in government is now a military and will be facilitated by South Korea’s the Georgia Institute of security expert as well as is backing this concept. industrial prowess in such fields as Technology’s School of opinion columnist for the Interactive Computing in The US and Israeli armies were Korean daily newspaper materials and battery technology as Atlanta. the first to deploy unmanned JoongAng Ilbo. well as electronics and communica- aerial vehicles (UAVs) for military tions technologies. 42 The Security Times February 2018 February 2018 The Security Times 43

SECURITY BRIEFS SECURITY BRIEFS

The construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is highly contentious, and not only internationally. Two German experts present their differing views for The Security Times

BY FRIEDBERT PFLÜGER took decisive action to drasti- large volumes of low-carbon over 2,000 kilometers with up The issue of subsidies has been Goldthau argues that while the BY RALF FÜCKS the largest gas supplier by far at liquefied natural gas terminals ing sector and heavy industry. While Europe continues to lack a diaries for Russian gas exports to cally diversify supply sources fuels for heating, transportation to 16 billion cubic meters of gas raised, including whether they country would indeed miss – accounts for roughly 30 per- geared to meet future demand. In Another factor is the substitu- common strategic energy policy, Western Europe, they would lose and improve energy security. and shipping, as well as for the per year. The industry seems far can be justified on the highly out on transit fees should the cent of gas delivered to Europe. other words, there is no shortage tion of natural gas by means the Russian side continues to billions of euros in annual tran- s polarized as the discus- What emerged is a functional substitution of coal in electric- from suffering a lack of demand. developed European gas market. majority of gas flows to Western If we listen to those groups Finally, Nord Stream 2 has also in natural gas import capacity of synthetic gas (hydrogen and expand its energy empire. Part sit fees. In addition, the Kremlin sion surrounding Nord and highly flexible European gas ity generation. Even if consump- This is good news for Europe. But as long as investors bear the Europe circumvent its network, advocating on behalf of Nord become a divisive element for the today, nor will there be a shortage methane) derived from excess of this game also involves the would be able to turn off the gas AStream 2 may be, each market, lacking confining desti- tion levels remain stable, import The continent’s emerging and cost and risk of a new infrastruc- it also stands to gain from new Stream 2 – the second double EU, which is internally at odds in the future. For Nord Stream renewable electricity. Also, the strategically placed construction at any time without jeopardizing side posits legitimate arguments nation clauses and boasting new necessity will expand due to diverse portfolio of gas imports ture project themselves – as is the Western import options boost- pipeline designed to move Russian over the project. 2 to be used at full capacity, it greater the share of wind and of nuclear power plants designed its export business. Ukraine would deserving of careful consider- interconnectors, storage facili- dwindling availability of domes- contributes to the overall security case with Nord Stream 2 – and ing its standing in price negotia- natural gas through the Baltic Sea A coalition comprising the would require either an enormous solar energy in Europe’s mix to export electricity to the EU, then become even more vulnerable ation. It is thus essential to dis- ties, reverse flow capabilities and tic gas resources; in the Nether- of supply, to competition and thus do not pass it on to governments tions with its eastern neighbor – we might come to think the new SPD, the Federal Government increase in EU gas consumption of electricity, the more urgent such as the 2400-megawatt com- to Russian policies of intimidation. card doomsday scenarios, return over 30 European LNG import lands, for instance, production to affordable gas prices for house- or taxpayers, consumers should and lowering its gas bill. And project is a highly energy-efficient and the German Committee on or a squeezing-out of other suppli- becomes the issue of convert- plex on the Belarusian-Lithuanian This, too, is part of the political to reason and soberly substanti- terminals (sufficient to cover dropped from 81 bcm in 2013 to holds and industry. For better or welcome the prospect of every this would not be a first; the project and politically quite harm- Eastern European Economic ers and transport routes. Neither ing excess amounts of electricity. border and an equally large facil- dimension of Nord Stream 2. ate the debate. Four main issues more than half of EU demand). 47 bcm in 2016 due to concerns for worse, the advanced integra- additional gas molecule reach- completion of the Lithuania’s less. According to them, Nord Relations is driving this project of these scenarios would be in the Any fixation on the import of ity in Kaliningrad. If Germany’s goal is to achieve are at stake: While just a decade ago the EU over seismic activity. tion of the European gas market ing our shores, irrespective of floating Klaipėda LNG terminal Stream 2 will increase European forward against resistance from interest of Europe. They would, natural gas would only serve to Gazprom is not your average a cooperative European energy Detractors of Nord Stream might still have been susceptible Opponents of Nord Stream 2 and the need for redundant, par- its origin. in 2014 brought an immedi- energy security – after all, the the EU Commission. In the eyes however, be in the interest of delay the development of alterna- corporation. Together with the system, then we should not 2 argue that European energy to blackmail, we are now wit- also challenge the business sense allel infrastructure – as the new However, even if Nord Stream ate 20-percent price reduction Soviet Union was a reliable pro- of Poland, the Baltic republics Gazprom & Co. tive state-of-the-art technologies oil giant Rosneft, it forms the eco- support the policy pursued by security is already impaired by nessing a much-improved energy behind the pipeline. But Russia is Nord Stream strands would pro- 2 possesses a business rationale for Russian gas imports, even vider – and remain a purely com- and Scandinavian countries, Nord A sustained increase in the level on an industrial scale. nomic basis of the authoritarian the Kremlin. Our Central and an over-dependency on Russian landscape where gas can scarcely far from alone in recognizing the vide – were demonstrated at the and poses no threat to European before any significant volumes mercial project. They argue that Stream 2 is yet another example of natural gas consumption is The new double pipeline also regime in Moscow. Oil and gas Eastern European neighbors gas. As was the case with pre- be weaponized. opportunities on the European end of last year by an unfortunate energy security, some argue it of liquefied gas had reached the the European Commission would of Germany pursuing its narrow incompatible with the climate crosses several highly sensitive are the most important sources will no doubt express a critical vious energy cooperation proj- Prospective European gas gas market. Other present and explosion at a major gas hub in may still be objectionable from Baltic state. do well to stay out of the matter, national interest without any policy goals of the EU. What we ecological areas. Indeed, build- of income for the Russian state yet understandable sensitivity if ects, such as the German-Russian demand is a similar point of prospective contenders include Baumgarten, Austria, affecting a geopolitical perspective. Is it Political leaders in Europe and should refrain from interfer- coordination with its European need is an extensive decarburi- ing this pipeline involves massive and the richest source of systemic their interests and concerns are gas-for-pipes deal of the 1970s contention. Will not the trium- Norway, Qatar, Iran, Azerbai- markets all the way from Italy to not in our best interest to play and the US should think twice ing in Germany’s energy sover- neighbors. zation of the energy sector by interventions in the maritime bio- corruption. At the same time, ignored in another grand bargain (“Röhrenembargo”), it is first phant advance of renewables jan, Russia and, not least, the the UK. The incident promptly tough and oppose Nord Stream 2 before doing precisely what they eignty. Objection, your Honor! A pipeline with a transport mid-century. Instead of creat- sphere. Environmental protection Gazprom and Rosneft are at the between Germany and Russia. and foremost Washington that and efficiency measures make United States with its shale gas triggered an order for a short-term in order to offer an unambiguous accuse the Russians of doing: The “European Energy Secu- volume of 55 billion cubic meters ing path dependencies in fossil organizations criticize both the center of the Kremlin’s economic Nord Stream 2 is a test of how is in opposition, ostensibly in additional gas import capacity industry. Most recently, Israel, LNG delivery. Incidentally, this response to Russian transgres- using energy as a political tool. rity Strategy” adopted by the per year and investment costs of energy imports over decades, our route and the superficial environ- networks in Europe. Indeed, it serious Germany’s commitment the belief that Russia covers the superfluous? In a recent speech, Cyprus, Greece and Italy signed order came from Gazprom’s Rus- sions in Ukraine and elsewhere, Pipelines such as Nord Stream 2 EU Commission in 2014 con- up to €10 billion will be built to goal should be to remain flexible mental impact assessment. will be interesting to see how to “more Europe” truly is. vast majority of European gas EU Climate Action and Energy a memorandum for the construc- sian competitor, Novatel, which instead of rewarding Gazprom do not represent subservience to tains three explicit objectives: last for decades. The economics in terms of supply sources and The claim that Nord Stream 2 German ex-Chancellor Gerhard demand. However, this share, Commissioner Miguel Arias tion of the world’s longest under- had inaugurated its Yamal lique- with additional market access? If Moscow – they create stabilizing an increase in primary energy of the project are based on the transport routes. In the short is a purely commercial project Schröder navigates these waters often exaggerated in the US, has Cañete made abundantly clear water pipeline to supply Europe faction facility just days earlier. so, this should be clearly stated interdependence. This is as true generation, the diversification of estimate of a long-term increase term, demand for natural gas is naïve. It would be severely in his role as a leading Gazprom RALF FÜCKS been fluctuating over the past that this is not the case: “Gas in order to prevent the erosion of now as it was during even the supplier countries and delivery in natural gas consumption in may pick up as a result of the negligent to overlook the fact and Rosneft lobbyist. was the longtime head decade between roughly one- has an important role to play European rule of law, not veiled most precarious periods of the routes, and a joint approach of the EU. For today’s needs, this gradual phasing-out of coal and that this pipeline is part of a There is a much less expensive of the Heinrich Böll quarter and one-third. in our decarbonization efforts in economic or legal pretext. Cold War, when energy remained EU states with regard to third pipeline is simply superfluous. In a further reduction in oil con- geopolitical game played by the alternative to a second Baltic Sea Stiftung, an independent FRIEDBERT PFLÜGER, political foundation But more importantly, after the [and] will shift towards a role Moreover, a crackdown on the only significant area of con- countries. Nord Stream 2 clashes 2015, Nord Stream 1 operated sumption. Over the long term, Kremlin. The goal of this game is pipeline: the modernization of the German State Secretary of Defense (ret.), is director of affiliated with Germany’s Ukrainian gas crises in 2006 and where it will complement vari- the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security Nord Stream 2 would not help tinued cooperation between East with all three of these objectives. at a capacity of only 71 per- however, consumption of natural to eliminate Ukraine and Poland continental transport network. Green Party. He is now 2009 – which in some Central ous renewables and replace more (EUCERS) at King‘s College London, senior fellow with Ukraine. In a study for the Euro- and West. Europe and the US First, the project speculates that cent. There are also the reserve gas will also experience a decline. as transit countries, to cement This would comprise a multilat- the director of the Berlin- and Eastern European countries polluting fuels.” the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and managing pean Centre for Energy and would be well advised to bring natural gas imports to the EU will capacities contained in the con- One key factor in this process is European dependence on energy eral project that would benefit based think tank Zentrum led to serious supply shortages In the short and medium term, director of Pflüger International GmbH. Resource Security (EUCERS) at calm and composure back into rise. Second, it increases depen- tinental pipeline system as well the continuing improvement of imports from Russia and to drive everyone. If Ukraine and Poland Liberale Moderne. and justified concerns – the EU Europe will continue to require King’s College London, Andreas this debate. dency on Russia, which – already as increasing capacities available energy efficiency in the build- a wedge between EU countries. were to be eliminated as interme-

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