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Peace and Conflict Assessment of South Sudan 2012

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Peace and Conflict Assessment of South Sudan 2012 PEACE AND CONFLICT ASSESSMENT OF SOUTH SUDAN 2012 Understanding conflict. Building peace. b International Alert About International Alert International Alert is a 26-year old independent peacebuilding organisation. We work with people who are directly affected by violent conflict to improve their prospects of peace. We also seek to influence the policies and ways of working of governments, international organisations like the UN and multinational companies, to reduce conflict risk and increase the prospects of peace. We work in Africa, several parts of Asia, the South Caucasus, the Middle East and Latin America, and have recently started work in the UK. Our policy work focuses on several key themes that influence prospects for peace and security – the economy, climate change, gender, the role of international institutions, the impact of development aid, and the effect of good and bad governance. We are one of the world’s leading peacebuilding NGOs, with more than 159 staff based in London and 14 field offices. To learn more about how and where we work, visit www.international-alert.org. Acknowledgements This report was commissioned by Pact and funded by the UK Department for International Development. We would like to thank both organisations for providing the opportunity to conduct this study, and for their useful guidance and comments. The research was conducted in collaboration with the South Sudan Academics and Researchers Forum for Development. We are also indebted to Pact’s staff for their participation in the research and the provision of logistics support. We thank the Government of South Sudan at national and state level for their support and contributions, as well as the numerous citizens of South Sudan and staff of national and international organisations who gave up their time to provide us with information, analysis and ideas. The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of International Alert and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of Pact or DFID. © International Alert 2012 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without full attribution. Layout by D. R. ink, www.d-r-ink.com Front cover image: Man wears flag as hat. A young South Sudanese man wore the flag as a hat on Independence Day in Juba July 9 2011. Photo by Tim Freccia / Enough Project. PEACE AND CONFLICT ASSESSMENT OF SOUTH SUDAN 2012 Richard Reeve 2 International Alert Table of contents Acronyms 4 Executive summary 5 1. Objectives and methodology 12 Peace, conflict and the future of South Sudan 12 Methods 13 Limitations 15 Structure and analytical framework 15 2. Peace, conflict and independence: A snapshot of South Sudan in 2011 17 2.1 Overall trends 17 Short-term dynamics around independence 17 Trends in violent conflict 19 2.2 International dynamics of independence 23 Relations with Sudan 23 Relations with other neighbours and partners 24 3. Scenarios for consolidation or conflict, 2012–2021 25 3.1 Important processes between 2012 and 2017 25 3.2 Indicators of progress, 2021 26 4. Assessment of peace factors 28 4.1 Power 28 Power dynamics in 2011–2012 28 Inequalities and exclusions 29 Centralisation of power 29 Tribalism, boundaries and conflict 30 Box 1: Patronage and Kokora 31 Opportunities for engagement 31 4.2 Economy 32 Economic dynamics in 2011–2012 32 Inequalities and exclusions 32 Economic stability – Oil 33 Economic development – Land ownership and access 34 Livestock and pastoralism 35 Infrastructure and development 35 Box 2: Women, labour and livelihoods 36 Opportunities for engagement 36 4.3 Safety 37 Safety dynamics in 2011–2012 37 Inequalities and exclusions 38 Sources of insecurity 38 Arms proliferation and civilian disarmament 40 Security provision 41 Opportunities for engagement 43 Peace and Conflict Assessment of South Sudan 2012 3 4.4 Fairness, equality and justice 45 Justice dynamics in 2011–2012 45 Inequalities and exclusions 45 Access to justice 45 Box 3: Impunity 47 Reconciliation and transitional justice 47 Opportunities for engagement 47 4.5 Well-being 48 Social dynamics in 2011–2012 49 Inequalities and exclusions 49 Resettlement and migration 49 Rural-urban transformation 49 Service delivery and the social contract 50 Opportunities for engagement 52 5. Peacebuilding trends and responses 53 5.1 Trends and dynamics in peace and peacebuilding 53 5.2 Generational challenges 54 5.3 Peacebuilding actors, institutions and sources of resilience 55 5.4 Impact of peacebuilding work 56 Peace conferences 56 Peace committees 59 Civilian disarmament and arms control 59 Early warning and early response 61 5.5 Linkages to development and state-building strategies 61 Peacebuilding and development 61 State-building and nation-building 62 6. Conclusions and recommendations 64 Recommendations 66 How to build peace 66 Where to build peace 68 Who to engage more in building peace 69 What we need to know to build peace 71 Annex A: Actors involved in peacebuilding in South Sudan 72 Governmental institutions 72 Civil society 73 International organisations 75 Annex B: Bibliography and resources 76 Major reports 76 Resources on peace, conflict and peacebuilding in South Sudan 78 4 International Alert Acronyms AU African Union CAR Central African Republic CBO Community-Based Organisation CEWARN Conflict Early Warning and Response Network (IGAD) CEWERS Conflict Early Warning and Early Response System CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement CSAC Community Security and Small Arms Control Bureau CSO Civil Society Organisation CSR Corporate Social Responsibility DDR Disarmament Demobilisation and Reintegration DFID Department for International Development (UK) DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo EAC East African Community FDI Foreign Direct Investment GoSS Government of Southern Sudan GRSS Government of the Republic of South Sudan IDP Internally Displaced Person IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development INGO International Non-Governmental Organisation JIU Joint Integrated Unit (SAF/SPLA) LRA Lord’s Resistance Army MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund MLA Member of Legislative Assembly MoU Memorandum of Understanding NCP National Congress Party NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NLA National Legislative Assembly OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN) OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PRC Peace and Reconciliation Committee (NLA) SAF Sudan Armed Forces SGBV Sexual and Gender-Based Violence SPLA Sudan People’s Liberation Army SPLM Sudan People’s Liberation Movement SPLM-DC Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – Democratic Change SSAF South Sudan Armed Forces SSDF South Sudan Defence Force SSDM/A South Sudan Democratic Movement/Army SSPS South Sudan Police Service SSR Security Sector Reform UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNISFA United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei UNMISS United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan USAID United States Agency for International Development WFP World Food Programme (UN) Peace and Conflict Assessment of South Sudan 2012 5 Executive summary This report is an assessment of peace, conflict and peacebuilding in South Sudan, conducted between June 2011 and March 2012. It analyses how local, national and international dynamics around independence in July 2011 and the end of the six-and-a-half-year formal Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) process with Sudan have impacted on peace and conflict in 2011–2012 and how they are likely to influence peace and development over the next decade. Utilising International Alert’s Peacebuilding Framework, it assesses the dynamics, structures and opportunities for building a positive peace under five Peace Factors: Power, Economy, Safety, Justice and Well-being. It also analyses some of the challenges and impact of peacebuilding actors, institutions and strategies over the CPA period and provides a series of recommendations on improving peacebuilding programming beyond 2012 in terms of prioritising approaches, target locations and actors/partners. It concludes that, while the enjoyment of peace is highly variable across South Sudan, the nation as a whole and few if any of its constituent peoples or counties have yet experienced a positive, sustainable peace. Conflictual and rapidly worsening relations with Sudan as well as uncertainty about the length of suspension of oil exports (and thus revenues) appear likely to aggravate longstanding deficits in governance, security, economic opportunity, justice and reconciliation. This in turn increases the risk that South Sudan will become more violent in 2012 and beyond. Peace, conflict and independence, 2011–2012 Important dynamics of the transition from autonomy to independence derive chiefly from the CPA being neither fully comprehensive in determining future relations between Sudan and South Sudan nor fully agreed and implemented by the two parties prior to independence. Renewed violence on both sides of the border has been fuelled by the failure to hold a referendum on the status of Abyei, the disputed conduct of popular consultations on the future status of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, and the failure to agree and demarcate all of the border between South Sudan and Sudan. The dissolution of the Joint Integrated Units of the two countries’ armed forces has also contributed to the rebellions in each country. Failure to agree transit fees for South Sudanese oil
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