Risk Mapping South Sudan Sector Disaster Risk Reduction & Emergency Aid

January 2012 Evelien Thieme Groen & Carolien Jacobs

Table of Contents

Fast Facts 3

HAZARDS 3 Conflicts 3 Cattle raids and other resource-based inter-ethnic violence. 3 Clashes 3 Small arms 3 North-South border 4 Extractives 4 Three Areas 4 LRA 4

Natural Hazards 4 Floods and flash floods 4 Droughts 4 Environmental hazards 5 Earthquakes 5

VULNERABILITY 5 Indicators 5 Cattle raids 6

CAPACITY 6 International coordination 6 Government 6 Civil society 6 Local Cordaid Partners 7

SYNTHESIS 8

Resources & contacts 9

Appendix: natural hazard map & conflict hazard map South Sudan

2 Republic of South Sudan

Fast Facts Independence: July 9, 2011 Major ethnic groups: 65 different groups, major: Capital: Juba, future capital: Ramciel Dinka (ca. 15%), Nuer (ca. 10%), Bari, Azande, Population: 8.26 million, 83% in rural areas Shilluk Population Density: 12,8 / sq. km Climate: equatorial climate, high humidity 1 Administrative regions: 10 states, 86 counties, World Risk Index: n.a. payams and bomas (smallest administrative Cordaid sectors: CT, DRR, ER H&W, unit) Ondernemen.

Hazards

Conflicts One of the major challenges for South Sudan is to ensure peace and security. After having achieved the common goal of independence, interethnic divisions might become magnified again more intensely in the future. People might get disappointed and impatient about the pace of progress in their country. Besides, the relationship with Sudan continues to be crucial for the future of the country. Conflict potential has both internal as well as external origins, as shown on the map. Many of the conflicts might induce large streams of IDPs and refugees, possibly demanding urgent assistance.

Cattle raids and other resource-based inter-ethnic violence Inter-ethnic cattle raids occur in waves, one raid inciting a next retaliatory raid. Frequency, scale and effects vary, but in general raids have to be considered as a crucial security challenge. 2 Cattle is a highly valuable asset and is an essential part of the dowry a man offers to his bride and in-laws. Rustling is a culturally accepted way of obtaining cattle. During such raids, whole villages can get destroyed, women and children get abducted and many people get displaced. Since the peace agreement, prices of dowries have increased, whereas many young men have returned from war without large assets, making the practice of cattle rustling more prevalent. Violence is also often resource-based as conflict over water and other resources is a serious threat. Especially in the regions of Jonglei, Unity State and Upper Nile conflict potential is high as pastoralists move form one place to another crossing states and the border with Ethiopia.

Clashes Clashes between rebel groups and SPLA and within SPLA are common in Jonglei, Unity, Upper Nile, Northern Bahr al Ghazal. 3

Small arms Small arms continue to be widely available and the process of Demobilization, Disarmament, and Reintegration (DDR) is unfinished. 4 It is frequently rumoured that Sudan is actively spreading arms in the South to cause internal conflict and destabilisation.

1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sudan , on 12.10.2012. 2 http://allafrica.com/stories/201108232187.html , on 12.10.2011 3 http://www.issafrica.org/uploads/No25Aug2011.pdf , on 12.10.2011. 4 http://www.issafrica.org/uploads/No25Aug2011.pdf , on 12.10.2011.

3 North-South border North-South border demarcation remains unsettled. Military confrontations between SAF and SPLA constitute a danger. Border closures hinder pastoralists’ trans-border movement, and limit the quantity of goods crossing the border, increasing price levels and reducing food availability in the country. 5

Extractives As oil is found especially in the border regions, there is potential for conflict with Sudan. Besides, South Sudan is dependent on Sudan for the processing of oil. A delicate balance has to be kept between the two countries on the division of revenues. Conflicts in oil-rich areas (located mainly along the troubled Sudan- South Sudan border) result in lower economic security, as oil contractors withdraw from pockets of violence, reducing oil revenues. 6

Three Areas Abyei is disputed between Sudan and South Sudan and has serious conflict potential. A referendum is supposed to be held to determine the future status of the area. Due to disagreements about the process the referendum is withheld indefinitely. South Kordofan and Blue Nile are another Sudanese state that has recently known considerable clashes between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-North (SPLA-N). There is a serious risk that such clashed turn into war, with a high number of refugees and IDPs to be expected.

LRA Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) leads repeated attacks in West Equatoria. Although sporadic, the attacks are the cause of displacement of large numbers of people.

Natural Hazards

Floods and flash floods Floods and flash floods are annual events in most areas of South Sudan, mostly in the months of July through October. 7 Especially prone to flooding is the Sudd, the world largest swamp area along the river Nile. Recently, in September 2011, the northern region of Warrap suffered from heavy rains causing flash floods. Many households were affected, and also displaced people from the Abyei crisis have been involved. A year earlier in 2010 in the regions of Jonglei, Lakes, Warrap, Northern Bahr al Ghazal, Unity, Bahr al Jabal and the Upper Nile many areas flooded due to heavy rainfall and river rising. An estimated 60 thousand people have been displaced due to the floods. 8

Droughts A hazard for the – largely agro pastoralist - people in South Sudan is constituted by droughts. In the past decades South Sudan has experienced regular droughts. From 2008 until 2009 Eastern Equatoria suffered from a drought. 9 In the year 2000 the eastern states of East Equatoria, Jonglei, and Bahr al-Ghazal experienced drought. 10 These droughts often resulted in related food insecurities in the eastern states as well as the north-west. 11 In the northern states of Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile as well as in the south east of East Equatoria there is a minimum of precipitation levels. 12 During the dry season, wild fires are

5 http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=93894 , on 6.10.2011 6 http://www.ips.org/africa/2011/10/south-sudan-oil-conflict-threatens-to-break-out/ , on 05.10.2011 7 http://reliefweb.int/taxonomy/term/9242 viewed on 4 october 2011 8 Reuters (2010). Floods in South Sudan leave nearly 60,000 homeless. http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/08/31/us-sudan-south-floods- idUSTRE67U4ZR20100831 viewed on 18.01.2012. 9 http://www.caritas.org/newsroom/press_releases/PressRelease21_10_10.html viewed on 4 octber 2001 10 http://southsudanfriends.org/News/Drought2001.html viewed on 4 october 2011 11 http://reliefweb.int/taxonomy/term/220 viewed 5 october 2011 12 http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/217 viewed 5 october 2011

4 common in all areas of South Sudan. They are mainly caused by lightning strikes or by pastoralist clearing desiccated grasses. These fires can destroy whole villages that are caught completely off-guard. 13

Environmental hazards Linked to the conflicts in South Sudan is severe environmental degradation. Land degradation, deforestation and climate change carry their toll already for several decades. Survival of livestock is essential for most people as livelihood of large part of the population is based on livestock, especially cattle. 14 In case of crop failure due to drought, people can resort to cattle as an alternative source. Yet, land degradation also influences the condition of cattle herds. Cattle pests and diseases constitute another hazard in most areas of South Sudan. 15

Earthquakes In May 1990 in the region of Bahr al Jabal, just 100km north east of Juba in the Mongola area several severe earthquakes occurred (registering 7.5 on the Richter scale). There were no major damages and no losses of lives; the area affected was mostly uninhabited. Displaced people required some relief for shelter material. 16 It should be noted however that the epicentre of the earthquake was not far from Juba, the more densely populated capital of the country. South Sudan is situated between two rifts, which are part of the Rift Valley, one on the east around Ethiopia and one more towards the south in the area of Kenya and Uganda. 17

Vulnerability

Indicators GDP per capita 3564 SDG (=$1546) Livelihood strategy Crop farming: 71% Animal husbandry: 7% Access to health care Urban areas: 93% of pop. Rural areas: 66% of pop. Access to improved water source Urban areas: 66% of pop. Rural areas: 53% of pop. Literacy among people over 15 Urban areas: 53% Rural areas: 22% Food deprivation 47% of pop. Housing conditions 60-80% of pop. in tukuls

South Sudan has low levels of development, including infrastructure, education, and health. For 19% of the population it takes more than 60 minutes to get to a water point, In Unity and Warrap it takes more than an hour for even 29 and 27% of the population. Especially Warrap, Western Bahr el Ghazal, Lakes and East Equatoria have limited health access. Cattle possession per person is highest in Western Bahr el Ghazal (four heads of cattle p.p), followed by Unity, Warrap, Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Lakes (two heads of cattle p.p.), whereas animal husbandry is the main source of livelihood for between 12 and 14% of the households in the states of Upper Nile, Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria. 18 Western Bahr el Ghazal, Unity and Upper Nile have especially high figures of food deprivation; up to 74% of the population does not get the minimum dietary energy requirement per day. Stunting among children under five is especially prevalent in Western Bahr el Ghazal, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Unity and Western Equatoria. Food insecurity is of concern most in the flood season in August-September, preceding the main harvest.

13 http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/iffn/country/sd/sd_1.htm viewed on 4 october 2011 14 ibid . 15 See especially on Bahr al Jabal: Marcellino et al. 2011 ‘Economic impact of east coast fever in central equatorial state of south Sudan’, IRJAS 1(6): 218-220. 16 http://reliefweb.int/node/34668 viewed on 4 october 2011 17 http://denali.gsfc.nasa.gov/dtam/data/ftp/dtam.jpg viewed on 20 october 2011 18 based on 2010 Statistical Yearbook for Southern Sudan, www.ssnbs.org

5 An especially vulnerable group is constituted by internally displaced people and refugees. At least 300 thousand people are returning to South Sudan. Most returnees are settling in the north (North and West Bahr al Ghazal and Unity). 19 Many IDPs (200 thousand 20 ) are being pushed out of different areas across the country due to violence, war and natural hazards. At their place of refuge, they often have limited access to resources, hampering their livelihood strategies. 21 Large groups of refugees put high strains on host communities/region.

Cattle raids Whereas the lethal victims of cattle raids tend to be men, women and children are prone to abduction during such raids. Cattle raids tend to be most prevalent during the hunger season.

Capacity

International coordination Over the last years, humanitarian organizations, under the leadership of OCHA have had a strong presence in the country. From 2007 onwards, OCHA started to recede and hand over responsibilities to NGOs and CBOs. OCHA however continues to organise weekly meetings for emergency preparedness and response. Lead agencies responsible for each cluster/sector, are the following: 22

Cluster/sector Lead agency Education UNICEF Food security and livelihoods FAO/WFP Health WHO Logistics WFP Emergency telecommunications WFP NFIs, emergency, shelter IOM Nutrition UNICEF Protection UNHCR Water and santiation UNICEF

Government The Government of South Sudan is largely still in its childhood. There are signs that the government’s position vis-à-vis iNGOs is becoming stricter, revealing the country’s ambition to acquire more control over the humanitarian agenda. Capacity building is important also within the government sector. The South Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (SSRRC ) is the operational arm of the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management in South Sudan, and has bodies on states’ level as well. It is responsible for the coordination of relief, repatriation, rehabilitation, resettlement and reintegration and for the reconstruction efforts of the Government of South Sudan, the UN and other agencies. Risk reduction management is also part of its tasks. 23

Civil society Civil society in South Sudan is still very weak. Substantial capacity building is needed on the ground. Partly due to weak infrastructure, distribution of organisations remains unequal. Churches and church-based organisations tend to be spread more widely over the country. Where NGOs are absent, dioceses can be

19 http://www.internal-displacement.org/8025708F004BE3B1/(httpInfoFiles)/D676B8D202DC6252C12578E60035749B/$file/ssudan_ocha_cum-returnees- country_30oct10-2aug2011.pdf viewed on 6 october 2011 20 http://www.internal-displacement.org/idmc/website/countries.nsf/(httpEnvelopes)/0026B2F86813855FC1257570006185A0?OpenDocument viewed on 6 october 2011 21 http://www.msf.org/msf/articles/2011/07/as-south-sudan-enters-independence-the-long-standing-humanitarian-emergency-continues.cfm viewed on 6 october 2011 22 For a more detailed list, see: http://ochanet.unocha.org/p/Documents/110802%20-%20Cluster-Sector%20Coordinator%20and%20Co- Coordinator%20Contact%20Sheet.doc (viewed on 19.10.2011) 23 http://www.goss-online.org/magnoliaPublic/en/Independant-Commissions-and-Chambers/Relief-Rehabilitation.html viewed on 10.10. 2011

6 good starting points for capacity building, but are often overburdened with tasks. It should be noted that diocesan boundaries do not equal administrative boundaries. 24 The (Catholic) Church has generally good ties with the government, which can be supportive in achieving certain goals. Thus far, the following twinning agreements have been made: 25

Diocese Lead CI Member El Obeid CRS (Abyei supported from the South) Kosti Pastoral Region (under Khartoum) Caritas Italiana (?) Khartoum CRS Wau Trocaire Rumbek Trocaire Malakal CRS Tombura-Yambio CAFOD Yei CAFOD Juba CAFOD Torit Caritas Switzerland

Local Cordaid Partners Sector: Conflict Transformation Name and kind of Geo location Core business Strategy turnover staff org. South Sudan Artist Juba Youth Linking & learning ? <10 Association empowerment NGO Skills South Sudan Capacity building Capacity building >500,00 >50 NGO of CBO and local 0 Government Bakhita Radio Juba Radio broadcasting 100.000 10-50 CBO - 500.000 Radio Anisa Western Radio broadcasting 100.000 10-50 CBO Equatoria - 500.000 Sudan Catholic South Sudan Radio Radio Program 100.000 <10 Radio Network (Juba) Development, - CBO broadcasting 500.000 Healing the Healers South Sudan Trauma counselling Capacity building 100.000 10-50 CBO (Rumbek) - 500.000 Supraid (no longer Warrap Peace building and Service delivery 100.000 10-50 partner but still humanitarian Aid - interesting org) 500.000 NGO SuDEMOP Juba Governance Lobby & advocacy 100.000 10-50 NGO monitoring - (elections) 500.000 WERD Upper Nile + Nation Building Network <100,00 <10 CBO Jonglei 0 SCC + ERRADA Juba SCC: Peace Lobby & advocacy 100.000 <10 Church network building Service delivery - ERRADA: 500.000 humanitarian Justice Africa Juba Thematic capacity Advocacy 100.000 <10

24 See http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sudan_RC_Church_diocese_district_map_2007.svg for a map of the dioceses in South Sudan (viewed on 18.10.2011) 25 See for more detail ToR of Dioceses Twinning.

7 INGO building - 500.000 European Coalition Juba Research on impact Lobby & advocacy 100.000 10-50 on Oil in Sudan of oil industry - (ECOS) 500.000 NGO network Sudan Ecumenical Juba Peacebuilding Lobby & advocacy <100,00 <10 Forum (SEF) 0 NGO-church network Diocese of Malakal: Upper Nile Sudanaid: Service delivery - Sudanaid humanitarian aid Malakal J&P: peace Lobby & advocacy - J&P Malakal building, awareness-raising among communities about oil WAD Upper Nile Women Lobby & advocacy <100,00 <10 empowerment 0 Diocese of Yambio WES Health, Service Delivery - Sudanaid Humanitarian Aid Yambio Peace Building, Lobby & advocacy - J&P Yambio South Sudan Law Juba Human Rights, Capacity building, 100.000 10-50 Society access to justice lobby - 500.000 HARD Wau (Western Peace building, Service delivery >500,00 10-50 Bahr El Ghazal) Humanitarian Aid, 0 Income generation, Education HIV/Aids awareness Caritas South Sudan All states in South Humanitarian Aid Service Delivery >500,00 <10 (part of SCBC-SSS) Sudan Caritas 0 Coordination Unit in Juba

Synthesis

South Sudan faces both natural hazards and conflict. Climate change can affect the environment which, besides intensifying hazards, can also intensify conflict. The following points illustrate the main risks in this country based on hazards, vulnerability (as population exposed) and history. - Despite peace agreements and independence, conflict and conflict potential are significant in South Sudan. In the regions of Abyei, South Kordofan and Blue Nile there is serious risk of clashes turning into full scale war. This could affect many thousands of people. This will lead to a high number of IDPs and refugees possibly travelling to Democratic Republic Congo and less so to Central African Republic and Ethiopia as we are seeing now. - Conflict threat over water and other resources is increasing in the states of Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity and instances of violence may increase. - Less severe is the flood risk in South Sudan. Many areas are exposed to flooding, yet the country is not densely populated. Yet, we must keep in mind the high number of IDPs and returnees in flood prone areas who are very vulnerable and possibly unaccustomed to floods. Number affected could be up to 60 thousand people as was the case in 2010.

8

Resources & contacts

South Sudan Government: http://www.goss-online.org/ Statistics: http://ssnbs.org/ NGO forum: www.southsudanngoforum.org Reliefweb: http://reliefweb.int/taxonomy/term/8657 Famine Early Warning Systems Network: http://www.fews.net/pages/country.aspx?gb=ss&l=en Sudantribune: http://www.sudantribune.com/

Akinyi Walender (Head of Mission, Cordaid Juba): [email protected] , +249955572206; +249 900419597 Bernadette Hermans (PO ER/EP, Cordaid HQ): [email protected] , +31 7031 36 679 Jeroen de Zeeuw (PO CT, Cordaid HQ): [email protected] , +31 6 50476550 Ilse Simma (Coordinator, Caritas Coordination Unit: [email protected] , +249955736809 John Ashworth (Sudan expert, freelance consultant): [email protected] ; +249919695362

9