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South Sudan Risk Mapping 20120130

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South Sudan Risk Mapping 20120130 Risk Mapping South Sudan Sector Disaster Risk Reduction & Emergency Aid January 2012 Evelien Thieme Groen & Carolien Jacobs Table of Contents Fast Facts 3 HAZARDS 3 Conflicts 3 Cattle raids and other resource-based inter-ethnic violence. 3 Clashes 3 Small arms 3 North-South border 4 Extractives 4 Three Areas 4 LRA 4 Natural Hazards 4 Floods and flash floods 4 Droughts 4 Environmental hazards 5 Earthquakes 5 VULNERABILITY 5 Indicators 5 Cattle raids 6 CAPACITY 6 International coordination 6 Government 6 Civil society 6 Local Cordaid Partners 7 SYNTHESIS 8 Resources & contacts 9 Appendix: natural hazard map & conflict hazard map South Sudan 2 Republic of South Sudan Fast Facts Independence: July 9, 2011 Major ethnic groups: 65 different groups, major: Capital: Juba, future capital: Ramciel Dinka (ca. 15%), Nuer (ca. 10%), Bari, Azande, Population: 8.26 million, 83% in rural areas Shilluk Population Density: 12,8 / sq. km Climate: equatorial climate, high humidity 1 Administrative regions: 10 states, 86 counties, World Risk Index: n.a. payams and bomas (smallest administrative Cordaid sectors: CT, DRR, ER H&W, unit) Ondernemen. Hazards Conflicts One of the major challenges for South Sudan is to ensure peace and security. After having achieved the common goal of independence, interethnic divisions might become magnified again more intensely in the future. People might get disappointed and impatient about the pace of progress in their country. Besides, the relationship with Sudan continues to be crucial for the future of the country. Conflict potential has both internal as well as external origins, as shown on the map. Many of the conflicts might induce large streams of IDPs and refugees, possibly demanding urgent assistance. Cattle raids and other resource-based inter-ethnic violence Inter-ethnic cattle raids occur in waves, one raid inciting a next retaliatory raid. Frequency, scale and effects vary, but in general raids have to be considered as a crucial security challenge. 2 Cattle is a highly valuable asset and is an essential part of the dowry a man offers to his bride and in-laws. Rustling is a culturally accepted way of obtaining cattle. During such raids, whole villages can get destroyed, women and children get abducted and many people get displaced. Since the peace agreement, prices of dowries have increased, whereas many young men have returned from war without large assets, making the practice of cattle rustling more prevalent. Violence is also often resource-based as conflict over water and other resources is a serious threat. Especially in the regions of Jonglei, Unity State and Upper Nile conflict potential is high as pastoralists move form one place to another crossing states and the border with Ethiopia. Clashes Clashes between rebel groups and SPLA and within SPLA are common in Jonglei, Unity, Upper Nile, Northern Bahr al Ghazal. 3 Small arms Small arms continue to be widely available and the process of Demobilization, Disarmament, and Reintegration (DDR) is unfinished. 4 It is frequently rumoured that Sudan is actively spreading arms in the South to cause internal conflict and destabilisation. 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sudan , on 12.10.2012. 2 http://allafrica.com/stories/201108232187.html , on 12.10.2011 3 http://www.issafrica.org/uploads/No25Aug2011.pdf , on 12.10.2011. 4 http://www.issafrica.org/uploads/No25Aug2011.pdf , on 12.10.2011. 3 North-South border North-South border demarcation remains unsettled. Military confrontations between SAF and SPLA constitute a danger. Border closures hinder pastoralists’ trans-border movement, and limit the quantity of goods crossing the border, increasing price levels and reducing food availability in the country. 5 Extractives As oil is found especially in the border regions, there is potential for conflict with Sudan. Besides, South Sudan is dependent on Sudan for the processing of oil. A delicate balance has to be kept between the two countries on the division of revenues. Conflicts in oil-rich areas (located mainly along the troubled Sudan- South Sudan border) result in lower economic security, as oil contractors withdraw from pockets of violence, reducing oil revenues. 6 Three Areas Abyei is disputed between Sudan and South Sudan and has serious conflict potential. A referendum is supposed to be held to determine the future status of the area. Due to disagreements about the process the referendum is withheld indefinitely. South Kordofan and Blue Nile are another Sudanese state that has recently known considerable clashes between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-North (SPLA-N). There is a serious risk that such clashed turn into war, with a high number of refugees and IDPs to be expected. LRA Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) leads repeated attacks in West Equatoria. Although sporadic, the attacks are the cause of displacement of large numbers of people. Natural Hazards Floods and flash floods Floods and flash floods are annual events in most areas of South Sudan, mostly in the months of July through October. 7 Especially prone to flooding is the Sudd, the world largest swamp area along the river Nile. Recently, in September 2011, the northern region of Warrap suffered from heavy rains causing flash floods. Many households were affected, and also displaced people from the Abyei crisis have been involved. A year earlier in 2010 in the regions of Jonglei, Lakes, Warrap, Northern Bahr al Ghazal, Unity, Bahr al Jabal and the Upper Nile many areas flooded due to heavy rainfall and river rising. An estimated 60 thousand people have been displaced due to the floods. 8 Droughts A hazard for the – largely agro pastoralist - people in South Sudan is constituted by droughts. In the past decades South Sudan has experienced regular droughts. From 2008 until 2009 Eastern Equatoria suffered from a drought. 9 In the year 2000 the eastern states of East Equatoria, Jonglei, and Bahr al-Ghazal experienced drought. 10 These droughts often resulted in related food insecurities in the eastern states as well as the north-west. 11 In the northern states of Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile as well as in the south east of East Equatoria there is a minimum of precipitation levels. 12 During the dry season, wild fires are 5 http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=93894 , on 6.10.2011 6 http://www.ips.org/africa/2011/10/south-sudan-oil-conflict-threatens-to-break-out/ , on 05.10.2011 7 http://reliefweb.int/taxonomy/term/9242 viewed on 4 october 2011 8 Reuters (2010). Floods in South Sudan leave nearly 60,000 homeless. http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/08/31/us-sudan-south-floods- idUSTRE67U4ZR20100831 viewed on 18.01.2012. 9 http://www.caritas.org/newsroom/press_releases/PressRelease21_10_10.html viewed on 4 octber 2001 10 http://southsudanfriends.org/News/Drought2001.html viewed on 4 october 2011 11 http://reliefweb.int/taxonomy/term/220 viewed 5 october 2011 12 http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/217 viewed 5 october 2011 4 common in all areas of South Sudan. They are mainly caused by lightning strikes or by pastoralist clearing desiccated grasses. These fires can destroy whole villages that are caught completely off-guard. 13 Environmental hazards Linked to the conflicts in South Sudan is severe environmental degradation. Land degradation, deforestation and climate change carry their toll already for several decades. Survival of livestock is essential for most people as livelihood of large part of the population is based on livestock, especially cattle. 14 In case of crop failure due to drought, people can resort to cattle as an alternative source. Yet, land degradation also influences the condition of cattle herds. Cattle pests and diseases constitute another hazard in most areas of South Sudan. 15 Earthquakes In May 1990 in the region of Bahr al Jabal, just 100km north east of Juba in the Mongola area several severe earthquakes occurred (registering 7.5 on the Richter scale). There were no major damages and no losses of lives; the area affected was mostly uninhabited. Displaced people required some relief for shelter material. 16 It should be noted however that the epicentre of the earthquake was not far from Juba, the more densely populated capital of the country. South Sudan is situated between two rifts, which are part of the Rift Valley, one on the east around Ethiopia and one more towards the south in the area of Kenya and Uganda. 17 Vulnerability Indicators GDP per capita 3564 SDG (=$1546) Livelihood strategy Crop farming: 71% Animal husbandry: 7% Access to health care Urban areas: 93% of pop. Rural areas: 66% of pop. Access to improved water source Urban areas: 66% of pop. Rural areas: 53% of pop. Literacy among people over 15 Urban areas: 53% Rural areas: 22% Food deprivation 47% of pop. Housing conditions 60-80% of pop. in tukuls South Sudan has low levels of development, including infrastructure, education, and health. For 19% of the population it takes more than 60 minutes to get to a water point, In Unity and Warrap it takes more than an hour for even 29 and 27% of the population. Especially Warrap, Western Bahr el Ghazal, Lakes and East Equatoria have limited health access. Cattle possession per person is highest in Western Bahr el Ghazal (four heads of cattle p.p), followed by Unity, Warrap, Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Lakes (two heads of cattle p.p.), whereas animal husbandry is the main source of livelihood for between 12 and 14% of the households in the states of Upper Nile, Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria. 18 Western Bahr el Ghazal, Unity and Upper Nile have especially high figures of food deprivation; up to 74% of the population does not get the minimum dietary energy requirement per day.
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