TERRORISM INSURANCE AS INSURANCE AGAINST THE FAILURE OF COUNTER-TERRORISM: ISIS ATTACKS IN PARIS AND SAN BERNARDINO Gordon Woo RMS, 30 Monument Street, London EC3R 8NB
[email protected] 5th January 2016 ABSTRACT Two ISIS terrorist attacks towards the end of 2015 against Paris and San Bernardino, California, shed light on the strategic confrontation between a terrorist organization and the forces of counter-terrorism. For the attack in San Bernardino, a home-grown Jihadi couple, unknown to the US authorities, were able to perpetrate their shooting rampage without their plot being interdicted. For the larger scale more ambitious attack in Paris, three teams of operatives were deployed to attack the Stade-de-France, the Bataclan concert hall, and local bars and cafés. The rationale for the precise targeting and meticulous attack scheduling is explained. ISIS exploited the Syrian refugee crisis to infiltrate several terrorists into Europe, and took advantage of lax Belgian security to despatch four Belgian operatives across into France. The most lethal attack against the Bataclan concert hall was carried out by three French terrorists, combat hardened in Syria. For this attack, ISIS made a strategic decision in using Syrian returnees rather than other radicalized but less trusted French Jihadis. With this risky but operationally effective strategy, all the Bataclan operatives were known to the French authorities, who thus had a good chance of interdicting their attack. 1 1. COUNTER-TERRORISM DEFENCE Nation states are powerless to stop earthquakes and windstorms; the forces of Nature are greater than those of mankind. However, nation states do have military, intelligence and law enforcement capabilities to stop terrorists before they move towards their targets.