International Labour Organization Green Jobs: Towards Decent Work in Sustainable, Low-Carbon Economy
ASIAN DECENT WORK DECADE
Integrating Decent and Green Jobs into the Energy Sector in Pakistan
Empowering Vulnerable Groups through Education, Employment and Training
Empowering Vulnerable Groups through Education, Employment and Training
ILO Country Office for Pakistan
Integrating Decent and Green Jobs into the Energy Sector in Pakistan
ILO Country Office for Pakistan Copyright © International Labour Organization 2011 First published 2011
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Integrating Decent and Green Jobs into the Energy Sector in Pakistan / International Labour Organization ; ILO Country Office for Pakistan, TowardsGender Parity in Pakistan (TPG) Project. - Islamabad: ILO, 2011 xiv,90p.
ISBN: 978-92-2-125754-7 (print), 978-92-2-125755-4 (web pdf)
International Labour Organization; ILO Country Office for Pakistan work at home / women workers / employment / working conditions / labour force participation / informal economy / data collecting / methodology / Pakistan
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Printed in Pakistan FOREWORD
iii
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY vii INTRODUCTION viii BACKGROUND ix
CHAPTER 1 01 Climate Change 03 Pakistan’s Status as a GHG Emitter 04 Past and Expected Future Climatic Changes over Pakistan 05 The Energy Sector and Climate Change 05 Climate Change Impact on Pakistan 06
CHAPTER 2 07 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN'S ENERGY SECTOR 09 The Power Sector in Pakistan 10 Institutional Framework for Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution 11 Regulatory Framework in power sector In Pakistan 13 Renewable Energy is a Solution for the Energy Crisis in Pakistan 15 Dependency on Furnace oil and Increases in the Circular Debt 15
CHAPTER 3 17 Renewable Energy Landscape in Pakistan 19
CHAPTER 4 21 Green Jobs 23 Advantages of Green Jobs 23 Green Jobs in Pakistan 24 Declining ‘brown’ industries in Pakistan 24 The Employment challenge 25
CHAPTER 5 27 Current skill gaps in the Renewable Energy Sector 29
CHAPTER 6 33 Green Jobs in the Biogas Sector 35 Biogas Sector and Environment 36 Potential of Biogas in Pakistan 36 Potential for Household Biogas in Pakistan 37 Lack of Technical Training Skills 38
CHAPTER 7 39 Hydropower: An Avenue for Green Jobs in Pakistan 41 Future Trends 44
v CHAPTER 8 45 Solar Energy 47 Comments and analysis 48
CHAPTER 9 49 Comparison of employment opportunities in different low Carbon Power Generation in Pakistan 51
CHAPTER 10 53 Road Map for Renewable Energy Policy (Short Medium and Long Term) and Development and Implementation 55 Road Map for Policy Development and Implementation 55 Future Scenario of Green Jobs in Pakistan 56 Future Projection for green jobs generation in the renewable energy sector 56
CHAPTER 11 61 Case Study: Tarbela Dam-Multipurpose Hydroelectricity Project 63 Power House of Tarbela Dam 63
CHAPTER 12 65 Conclusions and Recommendations 67
ANNEXURE 75 ANNEX 1 77 ANNEX 2 79 ANNEX 3 80 ANNEX 4 83 ANNEX 5 85 ANNEX 6 87 ANNEX 7 88 ANNEX 8 89 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report has been written in light of the Green Jobs Initiative by the International Labor Organization (ILO) at Islamabad to assess, analyze and promote the creation of decent and green jobs in Pakistan. One of the pivotal challenges of the 21st Century is to protect the environment for a stabilized global climate. For the last few decades, climate change has become a menacing reality rather than a remote possibility. The use of renewable energy sources is one of the measures for combating climate change. It is one of the options that have significant impact on reducing Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and is extremely important for mitigating the impacts of climate change.
In this Report an in-depth analysis of Pakistan's energy sector has been made to assess opportunities to harness green, clean, and cheap electricity to address the current unprecedented energy crisis and review national priorities, policies, and plans for the development of the energy sector. The Report includes a synopsis of recent climate change effects which appeared as a devastating flood; a brief assessment of the energy sector; a review of key policies and strategies for a green and cheap energy supply for more jobs to alleviate poverty along with a win-win solution for sustainable development in the country.
The significance of hydroelectricity in the green energy sector is ever recognized. Green energy or renewable energy includes natural energetic processes that could be the least polluting such as hydroelectricity, solar, wind, geo-thermal, and bio-energy. Thus, hydroelectricity as an alternative to carbon producing energy sources is once again becoming a popular idea. The existing dams and rivers producing hydroelectricity are being considered as viable sources of energy. Hydropower, which is an alternative to carbon producing energy sources, is once again gaining importance globally. This aspect is especially covered in this Report as Pakistan has more than 120,000 Megawatts of potential energy and has had magnificent experience in the past, having successfully completed projects offering huge employment opportunities for skilled and unskilled labor. Therefore hydroelectricity projects have played a significant role in the economic growth of the country.
The objective of this Report is to catalyze employment by identifying opportunities in the renewable energy sector and poverty alleviation within climate change mitigation for sustainable development and economic growth. The author would like to thank Mr. Syed Saad Hussain Gilani, the Project Manager of at the ILO at Islamabad for his institutional support and personal encouragement.
vii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
ADB Asian Development Bank Mha Million Hectare AJ&K Azad Jammu & Kashmir MIS Management Information System AWB Area Water Board Mt Million Ton metric tonne? BCIAP Balochistan Community Irrigation & MTIP Medium Term Investment Plan Agriculture Project MWP Ministry of Water & Power BCM Billion Cubic Meter NCS National Conservation Strategy BOOT Build-Own-Operate-Transfer NDP National Drainage Project CCI Council of Common Interest NEPRA National Electric Power Regulation CDP Community Development Project Authority CDA Capital Development Authority NGO Non Governmental Organization CDWP Central Development Working Party NOC No Objection Certificate DRIP Drainage & Reclamation Research NSDS National Surface Drainage System Institute of Pakistan NWC National Water Council ECNEC Executive Committee of National NWFP North Western Frontier Province Economic Council O&M Operation & Maintenance EIA Environmental Impact Assessment PARC Pakistan Agriculture Research Council EPA Environmental Protection Agency PC-I Planning Commission Performa-1 FANA Federally Administered Northern Areas PCRWR Pakistan Council of Research on FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas Water Resources FFC Federal Flood Commission PDWP Provincial Development Working Party FGW Fresh Ground Water PEPC Pakistan Environment Protection Council FPSP Flood Protection Sector Project PEPO Pakistan Environment Protection FO Farmer Organization Ordinance GDP Gross Domestic Product PHED Public Health Engineering Department GNP Gross National Product PIDAs Provincial Irrigation and Drainage GOP Government of Pakistan Authorities GW Ground Water PMU Project Management Unit GWh GigaWatt Hour PPSGWDP Punjab Private Sector Ground Ha Hectare Water Development Project HRD Human Resources Development RBOD Right Bank Outfall Drain ICT Islamabad Capital Territory SCARP Salinity Control & Reclamation Project IDA International Development Agency of SGW Saline Ground Water World Bank SHYDO Sarhad Hydropower Development IEE initial Environmental Examination Organization IRSA Indus River System Authority UNCEF United Nations Children's Fund IWASRI International Waterlogging & Salinity WAPDA Pakistan Water & Power Development Research Institute authority IWMI International Water Management Institute WASA Water & Sanitation Authority IWRM Integrated Water Resources WB World Bank Management WHO World Health Organization KESC Karachi Electric Supply Company WRSS Water Resources Strategy Study KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa WUAs Water Users' Associations LBOD Left Bank Outfall Drain M&E Mechanical & Electrical
viii Background
Climate Change has triggered several extreme events in Pakistan. The record torrential rain in 2010 occurred primarily due to the confluence of the Monsoon and Western Weather Systems and this phenomenon has been evidently alien to the country’s meteorological past. This brought with it unprecedented devastation and destruction in many regions of Pakistan. This report stresses that the impacts of climate change must be mitigated and, at best, avoided through meticulous pre-emption. Among the many effective strategies that exist today, there is the promotion of green energy use, which is considered the most effective way to address Pakistan’s climate change challenges.
In spite of there being an ‘emerging consensus’ on the global front regarding the benefits of low-carbon electricity generation methodologies in suppressing climate change repercussions, this is yet to be seen in practice in Pakistan. The country’s heavy dependency on fossil fuels has driven the country into an energy crisis black hole, whereby wrong choices have made escape increasingly difficult.
The energy issues of Pakistan are unique and different from many of those around the world. Climate change is not the only driving forcing for the shift in the energy policy from fossil fuels to green energy sources. The current energy woes have been compounded by the fact that the country’s energy mix is greatly skewed towards imported fuels, which has accelerated Pakistan’s descent into crisis. The energy shortfalls have stunted the country’s economic growth and have paralysed many aspects of life in the rural and urban regions because of long hours of load-shedding. According to the Ministry of Water and Power (MOWP), the country is suffering annual losses amounting to Rs. 219 Billion in the industrial sector. The costs of importing fuel from abroad, in addition to the exploitation of indigenous resources, can only sustain economic growth for a finite time. Fluctuations in global prices, coupled with severe gas shortages and a high-energy consumption, inevitably force policy-makers to consider prudent options, which are perhaps familiar but unexplored. For a long time, renewable or green energy options were too costly to be considered but this may have to change.
The energy-mix of the country on fossil fuels is over 68 percent. A factor behind Pakistan’s power sector ‘circular debt’ has been the reliance on fossil fuels for energy generation. According to the Ministry of Finance, the figure on the position of the net circular debt on 30th of June 2009, was Rs. 216 billion. On the 16th of April 2010, this stood at Rs. 115 billion due to the Federal Government's support in the form of subsidies. The international fund monitoring agencies are, however, consistently pursuing the GOP to end all subsidies on electricity.
Green Energy in Pakistan: Hydroelectricity In this context, power generated from hydro schemes, which has been a source of significant dividends for the country, is evidently the best option for Pakistan. In comparison to other indigenous renewable energy sources, notably wind, solar, waste-to-energy and biomass, which are abundantly present in Pakistan, electricity generation from hydropower has always been relatively inexpensive.
The generation of electricity from low-carbon sources of energy has played a significant role in Pakistan’s economic growth. It has spearheaded an expansion of a green jobs base in the country, and has become an engine of sustainable development in Pakistan. Table 1 depicts the cost of electricity generation from different sources. It is observed that the cost of hydropower generation per kWh is the lowest of all the sources.
ix Table1. Cost of Generation for all Energy Sources
Generation Hydro Coal HSD RFO Gas Nuclear Import Sources from Iran Annual Generation 3,132 11 2 3,359 1,943 106 22 (GWh) % 36.3 0.1 0 38.9 22.5 1.2 0.3 Cost (Rs. /kWh) 0.37 4.7 15.74 11.29 7.11 0.511 4.25
In Pakistan hydroelectricity generation has been based on more than a century of experience, starting with the Renala Hydroelectricity Project, which was developed in 1911. After the completion of two mega hydroelectricity projects, i.e. the Tarbala and Mangla Dams in the 1960s and 70s, economic growth was fostered by a supply of cheap and reliable electricity. Here it is important to highlight the role of hydroelectricity and its nexus within sustainable development in Pakistan. Hydropower, which is a low- carbon resource, has set an excellent record in the generation of electricity, flood mitigation and employment generation during the execution and operation phases of hydropower projects. The example often quoted is the success story of the Tarbela Multipurpose Project, which was completed in 1997 with a total cost of Rs. 16,380 million and incidentally boasted of hydroelectricity as a byproduct. As of the 1st of December 2007, the national economy had benefited from a total of Rs.221, 902 million, which was 13.5 times more than the cost of building the Project. The Tarbela Multipurpose Project also provides greater job opportunities for local labor,where their sanctioned strength is 1,647 against which there are only 60.
Opportunities for Green Jobs In this study, job opportunities in green energy projects, particularly hydropower projects, will be analyzed. The objective is to evaluate whether green projects indeed provide more job opportunities during the construction and operation phases in comparison to conventional thermal power projects. Table 2 indicates the employment per MW during the execution and operation phase of thermal, hydro and small hydro projects. Table 3 indicates employment opportunities that provide skill and professional development. It is noteworthy that a tangible benefit of green projects i.e. Hydropower projects is that they generate employment in the construction industry.
Table2. Employment Generation in Projects
Employment Per MW Employment Per MW Type of Energy During Execution During Operation Execution (Energy Project) (Energy Project) Thermal 1 0.15 0.622 Green Energy (Hydro) 2 3 11.66 Small Hydro3 7.6 16.47
Hydroelectricity generation in Pakistan is widely considered to be a reliable means of generating ‘green’ electricity. Since 1911 the hydropower industry has offered a maximum number of green job opportunities. The future of green jobs by 2020 and 2030 in hydro, wind, biogas and energy from waste is discussed in detail in Chapter 10. The hydropower projects are expected to generate 487,872 jobs during construction and 217,062 jobs during the operational phase. A comparison of job generation in hydro and other resources is done in Chapter 4, indicating that hydropower excels in generating green jobs and employing people. Engineering Procurement Contract (EPC) documents of hydropower and wind power projects submitted to NEPRA by Independent Power Producers have been analyzed and it is found that the construction industry
x constitutes a major share in the development of hydropower projects.
Table3.Job Generation due to Malakand Project
Table3. Job Generation due to Malakand Project Professional Technical Skilled Unskilled Administrative Other Client 17 14 0 5 15 Consultant 30 30 30 10 5 Contractor 40 200 400 80 70
Although hydropower projects have a long gestation time, they offer employment opportunities to the skilled and semi-skilled labor force in different areas of expertise. The construction industry provides a platform for labor-intensive activities. This industry plays a critical role in the development of hydropower projects and employs some of the least educated people from the most disadvantaged sections of society. In this report, the case study of the 81 MW Malakand Hydropower projects will be examined. The Malakand project, whose execution phase created 946 jobs in addition to generating employment for 400 unskilled labors, took five years to complete. This is highlighted in Table 3. It is the need of the hour to train the local labor force in the development of run-of- the-river hydropower projects. The skills imparted include training work with tunnel boring machines. It has been determined after consultation with stakeholders that training for skilled labor, particularly in the areas of new cross-cutting hydropower technologies involving the development of mini and micro hydropower plants, will be necessary in AJK, Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This would serve to meet regional energy demands through the generation of hydroelectricity, which in essence is green.
Prospects for Renewable Energy in Pakistan Pakistan’s rank in the exploitation of other green energy options has remained disappointingly insignificant apart from various policy announcements, which until now have been irrelevant. Despite policy stipulations, Pakistan’s Power Policy 2002 and the Renewable Energy Policy 2006 were not successful in enhancing the capacity of the power sector.
Pakistan has so far been able to add zero MW of wind energy on the national grid although there is an economically viable potential of 13,000 MW in Sindh alone, as assessed by Pakistan’s Meteorological Department. On the other hand in India, where the total wind energy potential is 65,000 MW, the latter has made a remarkable achievement of harnessing about 11,807 MW, which constitutes about 19% of the entire wind potential. Moreover, in the last five years up to March 2010, India has added 8,213 MW of electricity generation from its wind resources. 84% It has been officially stated that one of the reasons for the delay in power generation from wind resources has been the rise in the cost of wind turbines, which comprise a major EPC cost. However, the capital cost of producing wind turbines has fallen steadily 3% 4% 1% 3% over the past 20 years. The manufacturing 3% 1% 1% 0% processes of wind turbines have been optimized, 0% while mass production and automation have Energy Equipment Sub-station Cost Civil Work Electrical Work resulted in economies of scale. The cost of turbines Project Management & Supervision Project Development decreased from US$1. Million/MW (in 2008) to Operating Fixed Assets Insurance During Construction Financial Charges Interest During Construction
xi US$1.11 Million/MW in 2010. On this note, AEDB could have facilitated the IPPs to avail Indian wind turbines. This is because their prices have always been lower than the global average due to lower labor and production costs. More than a dozen international companies now manufacture wind turbines in India.
One of the reasons behind the failure to tap wind energy has been the absence of trained labor in this sector. Another obstruction in the promotion of wind energy is the cost of imported equipment, which constitutes almost 82% of EPC. This also makes the cost of operation quite expensive and thus the tariff on wind energy is high. The assertion that wind energy is the only solution to Pakistan’s energy crisis is a myth. This is what entities with a vested interest want to propagate, such as the wind energy promoters and analysts who are particularly optimistic about its potential.
The capital costs, the tariffs at grid and fixed O & M costs (local and foreign) between wind and hydropower as determined by NEPRA and based on tariff petition are given below for comparison. Besides the comparatively lower tariff, the primary advantage of wind power over fossil fuel based electricity generation is that it is environmentally friendly, an indigenous resource, and has lower capital costs than rental power and offers potential for economies of scale. The tariff for wind power forms an essential part of the Engineering Procurement Cost (EPC), which would subsequently reach Rs. 4.4429 million after ten years of operation. One of the best options to electrify remote Districts is to consider the exploitable wind energy in western, central and southern Sindh.
Table 4 shows that some of the Districts in Baluchistan have less than 10% electrification coverage. Solar energy was used to electrify remote villages that had no access to the national grid. These villages were provided with solar technologies in a bid to electrify them; however, an absence of indigenous capacity to operate the installations has been suggested as the prime reason for their failure in the areas where they were introduced.
Table4. Extent of Electrification in Baluchistan
Name of District Awaran Dera Bugti Kohlu Musa Khel Electrification Coverage % 37 43
Waste-to-energy (WTE) is another form of green energy, which has yet to be tapped in Pakistan. WTE provides win-win solutions, as it would not only help to dispose of the municipal waste generated daily but would also provide the potential to generate more than 1,500 MWof green energy using state-of-the-art technologies. Extensive work has been carried out on studying the prospects of WTE in Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Here, waste can be used to generate 20-30MW annually and the cost of generation is anticipated to be Rs. 7 – 8 per kWh.
Similarly, meeting energy needs through biomass production is the best option for green energy development in rural areas. The waste of one buffalo can generate 500 kWh annually. There are about 400,000 buffalos in the Landhi region alone and enough waste is produced to generate 24 MW annually. This would result in total energy production of 500 kWh per annum.
xii A Green Energy Model for Pakistan The promotion of socioeconomic development for the purpose of poverty alleviation, whilst simultaneously halting environmental degradation, is one of the greatest challenges for Pakistan. This challenge is most conspicuous in the policy for water and energy, as both are essential elements of human life. Providing energy and water for sustainable development depends not only on supply choices, but also on how these choices are implemented. It requires the creation of a level playing field for the consideration of all available green energy options and the need for global water governance, involving all stakeholders in a participatory decision-making process.
During the last couple of years, Pakistan has been facing a series of economic and energy crises. In this scenario, the best immediate and long-term solution is to start multipurpose hydropower projects. This would help to overcome the challenge of sustaining positive economic growth and would provide options for water and energy development. An examination of the Energy Procurement Cost (EPC) shows that energy generated from hydropower sources can help to mobilize the local economy, as the foreign component in terms of monetary investment is a meager 25% to 30%, while for wind projects the value stands at 80% of the foreign exchange. Therefore, a significant cost savings can be made in developing more hydropower projects in Pakistan.
In Pakistan, the every expanding circular debt, rising cost of electricity generation and rapidly depleting gas reserves have left the exploitation of green energy resources as the best option. It will indeed be a timely decision to move towards hydropower, waste-to-energy, solar energy and biomass as back-up resources. These would pave the way for employment generation essentially in ‘green jobs’ for sustainable development. However, this is only possible when labor skills would be enhanced both in rural and urban areas and not just in hydropower but in other sources of green energy. It must be stressed that training and research and development opportunities in solar and wind technologies at universities and vocational institutes would help achieve this objective.
Biogas Potential and Creation of Green Jobs The livestock, especially cattle population in Pakistan is enough to generate 1,147.75 million cubic feet of biogas per day. 5.7 million biogas plants can be installed to meet cooking needs and electricity generation in rural areas. If the lack of skilled labor is addressed more three million green jobs can be created in this sector.
xiii xiv CHAPTER 1
CHAPTER ONE
Climate Change is an area that has become increasingly important in recent years. For the last two decades, scientists around the world have debated whether climate change is occurring due to natural or anthropogenic activities. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in 2007 and bringing together over 2,500 of the world’s leading scientists from more than 132 countries, has now conclusively proven that climate change is taking place. Global Climate Changes resulting from escalating concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels and other human activities are now an established phenomenon and their effects have been observed in most parts of the world, including Pakistan. In South Asia, which is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, many adverse climatic changes have been underway. Most of the adverse impacts will be apprehended in the coming decades. According to the above-mentioned Report, the average temperature of the earth’s surface increased by 0.6 °C over the past century and has been projected to increase further by 1.1 to 6.4 °C by the end of the current century.
Pakistan, with an area of 880,940 Km, has a unique geographical position which makes it vulnerable to the effects of climate change: these include rising sea-levels, increased frequency and intensity of natural hazards, changes in rainfall patterns, droughts, floods, extreme weather conditions and other calamities. These vulnerabilities will only be exacerbated by the current social, economic, and political schemes operating in the country. With the sixth largest population in the world, most of which still under the poverty line, weak governmental structures and institutions, security conflicts, a worsening fiscal crisis, rampant food insecurity, and a deepening energy crisis, Pakistan is becoming increasingly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Its geographical location and its status as a State marred by the crisis of underdevelopment make climate change a vital concern in the country.
As a result Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change. Several areas of the country lie where the temperature increases are higher than the global averages. The country’s land areas are mostly arid and semi-arid (about 60 per cent of the area receives less than 250 mm of rainfall per year and 24 per cent receives between 250- 500 mm). The economy is largely agrarian and hence highly climate sensitive, as the country faces increasingly higher risks of variability in monsoon rains, extensive floods and extended droughts. In the Pakistani context, this vulnerability is particularly high because of the large population and its economic dependence on primary natural resources.
Pakistan’s agrarian economy is heavily dependent on river-water provided by melting glaciers in the north. Fortunately, unlike other parts of the globe, more than 65% of the glaciers, especially in the Karakorum Range, are not only stable, they are also growing. Various international organizations and glaciologists have made field visits and satellite images which reveal that the glaciers of the Karakoram are responding differently to climate change, compared to rapidly retreating glaciers in the Himalayas and other parts of the globe. This exceptional behavior is termed the “Karakoram anomaly ” by glaciologists. However, the glaciers located in the watersheds of other two major Rivers, Jhelum and Chenab, are melting at a faster pace and having an impact on the climate. These two rivers contribute almost 33% of the total surface water supply of Pakistan. Variation in the flow of these two rivers is seriously threatening the water, food security, and energy security of the country.
03 Compounding these problems are the expected increased risks to the coastal areas. In the south, Karachi, the country’s largest port city and the hub of its industrial activity and international trade, is vulnerable to rising sea levels and increasing cyclonic activity particularly in the Indus Delta region. In the mountainous regions of Pakistan in the north, the frequency of landslides is ever increasing and this causes rapid deforestation and reduced regeneration under rapidly changing climatic conditions. Pakistan already has less than 4.5% of the land area under forest cover.
Although Pakistan has been rather slow in realizing the intensity of the climate change threat to its socio- economic development, the country is now taking this threat more seriously. A research center, Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) was established in 2003 and a high-level committee on Climate Change, chaired by the Prime Minister, (PMCCC) was established in 2005 to provide national level policy guidelines on climate change related issues. More recently, in October 2008, the Pakistan Planning Commission (PC) set up a Task Force on Climate Change (TFCC). However, so far these initiatives have failed to live up to expectations. Although it was recognized that the main cause of climate change is the emission of greenhouse gases, mitigation efforts on reducing the sources of greenhouse emissions have yet to be addressed.
The major contributors to climate change are the developed nations whose past emissions have resulted in the rise of average global temperatures. In an attempt to limit greenhouse gas emissions in the future, developing countries today must reconsider employing the same strategies of economic growth characteristics of their developed counterparts. Failure to do so would have potentially catastrophic impacts, as increased emissions cannot be sustained by the ecosystem. The rising demand for energy in the developing world comes from high population growth and ambitious developmental programs that attempt to curb the widespread poverty in these areas. Provision of energy becomes the prerequisite for economic development and as developing countries strive to industrialize, they resort to the cheapest and most readily available sources of energy. As the growing energy sector in the developing world would eventually contribute more to the greenhouse gas emissions than the current largest emitters, their energy sectors cannot be immune from mitigation policies. The 450 scenarios outlined in the World Energy Report 2009, which seeks to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions, reiterates the recognition of common but differentiated responsibilities requiring each region in the world to implement mitigation policies. Pakistan’s Status as a GHG Emitter
Sectoral Share of GHG Emission Pakistan’s emissions contribute a mere 0.8 per cent of the global GHG emissions. Pakistan’s total GHG emissions in 2008 amounted to 309 million metric tonnes (Mtt) of Carbon dioxide Energy (CO2) equivalent, comprising about 54% CO2, 36% Methane, 50%
9% Nitrous Oxide and 1% other gases. The biggest contributor Other 5% to the country’s emission is the energy sector with a 50% share, Industrial Agriculture Processes followed by the agriculture sector (39% share), industrial 6% 39% processes (6% share) and other activities (5% share). On a per capita basis, the country has 1.9 tonnes of GHG emissions, which corresponds to 1/3 of the world average, 1/5 of the average for Western Europe and 1/10 of the per capita emissions in the U.S. thus placing it in 135th position in the world ranking of countries in GHG emissions.
04 However, these numbers are projected to rise in the coming decade owing to the country’s burgeoning population and growing energy needs to fuel its plans developed by the Planning Commission of Pakistan. The country must embark on a comprehensive and efficient mitigation strategy as not only a responsible State within the global arena committed to emission reductions, but also because it would be much easier and economically feasible to make the transition to a low carbon economy. Against this backdrop, the utilization of renewable energy would not only be environmentally friendly, it would be economical. Thus, it is imperative that efforts to meet the growing energy demand in the country should incorporate the goals of emission reduction. Past and Expected Future Climatic Changes over Pakistan
During the last century, average annual temperature over Pakistan has around increased by 0.6 °C, while the precipitation also increased on the average by about 25 percent. Reference needed It is also observed that the intensity, abnormality, and variation in snowfall and other hydrological phenomena such as cloudbursts have been increasing. Precipitation has slightly decreased in the summer and increased in the winter with no significant change in annual precipitation. Studies based on the ensemble outputs of several Global Circulation Models (GCMs) project that the average temperature over Pakistan will increase in the range of 1.3-1.5 °C by 2020,, 2.5-2.8 °C by 2050, and 3.9-4.4 °C by 2080, corresponding to an increase in average global surface temperature of 2.8-3.4 °C by the turn of the 21st Century . Furthermore, it is projected that climate change would increase the variability of monsoon rains and enhance the frequency and severity of extreme events such as floods and droughts. The Energy Sector and Climate Change
Pakistan has successfully overcome the chronic vehicular pollution by introducing Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as a fuel, replacing more polluting fuels. Now the country has become the largest user of CNG in the world as shown in graph.
However, since the energy sector remains the primary contributor to GHG emissions in the country, it is essential that mitigation strategies be aimed at reforms within this sector. For Pakistan, this presents a host of opportunities. The vast potential of alternate energy in the country has not yet been exploited, although efforts are being made in this direction. The increased use of alternate energy not only coincides with mitigation of emissions: it also serves as a long-term strategy for achieving energy security.
3,000,000 25.00% Pakistan is an energy deficit country, relying Natural Gas Vehicles (NGV) Population: Top Ten Countries
NGV % all NGVs in heavily on imported oil to meet its energy 2,500,000 Population World needs. In recent times, the energy crisis has 20.00% reached alarming heights; the increasing 2,000,000 power shutdowns have become a routine 15.00% phenomenon and are gravely impacting 1,500,000 development in the country. While there is no 10.00% prospect for Pakistan to reach self 1,000,000
sufficiency in hydrocarbons, the exploitation 5.00% of renewable energy to counter the current 500,000 energy crisis is a sustainable option. 0 0.00%
Ukraine Thailand Colombia China Italy India Brazil Argentina Iran Pakistan
05 It is imperative to develop cheap and reliable sources of energy to push the country on a path of development: the exploitation of indigenous renewable sources of energy is likely to serve this end. Reliance on traditional
1975-2010 1946-1975
06 CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER TWO
OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN'S ENERGY SECTOR
Pakistan has faced severe imbalances in energy demand and supply Nuclear Electricity for the last couple of years. The combination of rising oil Oil consumption and flat oil production in Pakistan has led to rising oil imports from Middle East exporters. Natural gas accounts for the Hydro largest share of Pakistan’s energy use, amounting to about 44 percent of total energy consumption. Pakistan currently consumes Coal Gas all of its domestic natural gas production, but without higher LPG production, Pakistan will need to become a natural gas importer.
The current energy mix, comprised with different levels of shares is shown in Figure X. Add % to each item in the chart Primary commercial energy supplies include oil, natural gas, coal, hydro and nuclear electricity. The primary energy supplies of the country during fiscal year 2008-09 totaled 62.5 MTOE. The overall contribution of gas in primary energy supplies during 2008-09 was the highest with 30.24 MTOE (48.4%) followed by the Oil 20.10 MTOE (32.1%), Hydro Electricity 6.63 MTOE (10.6%), Coal 4.73 MTOE (7.6%), Nuclear Electricity 0.39 MTOE (0.6%), and LPG 0.40 MTOE (0.6%). The total energy consumption was 45.07 MTO (Million Tons of Oil) in 2001, which rose to 63.1 MTO equivalent in 2008-9 . The per capita availability of energy since 2001-2 is shown in Table2.1.
Table2.1 Change Since 2001 in per capita availability of Primary Energy Supply Energy Supply (Million TOE) Per Capita Availability (TOE) 2001-02 45.07 0.32 2008-09 62.5 0.36 The energy consumption mix has witnessed significant transformation since 2003. As a result, the major consumption source of natural gas witnessed an increase of 18 percent in 2009-10 compared to 2003-04. These changes in consumption of gas and oil mainly result from a shift from imported expensive oil to relatively cheaper sources of gas.
Table2.2. Composition of Final Energy Supplies
Crude Oil Gas (BCF) Petroleum Coal (M-Tons) Electricity (Thousand (M-Barrels) Products (M-Tons) GWhs) 2003-04 80.3 1,202.70 15.4 6 80.9 2009-10 86.1 1460.7 19.8 8.4 95.6 Furthermore, the share of coal and LNG consumption increased slightly and that of electricity remains the same as it was in 2004-05.The shift of energy consumption towards indigenous resources saved a considerable amount of foreign reserves during the period. Analysis of the composition of final energy supplies to the country (Table 6) suggests that the supply of coal during 2003-04 to 2009-10 grew by an average rate of 9.3 percent per annum followed by gas, electricity, crude oil and petroleum products with per annum growth rates of 6.3 percent, 3.5 percent, 2.9 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.
09 Shifting the energy mix from oil to gas created severe gas shortages. In 2011 the daily gas requirement is 6.5 billion cubic feet (BCF) against the current supply of 4.0 BCF, which means that the country at present faces an annual shortfall of 2.5 BCF.The major consumer of gas is the power sector, which consumes nearly 40% of the total production of gas. This has not only reduced the hydroelectricity share from 52% to 30% but also caused the depletion of our limited gas reserves. To overcome the impact of the shortage of gas supply, the thermal power plants have had to switch from gas to furnace oil. Consequently, the cost of generation has tripled, compared to the cost of gas, because 67% of the power sector is dependent on fossil fuels. This high dependency on fossil fuel for electricity generation drains the national exchequer, while a mounting import bill continues to exert pressure on the trade deficit and the foreign exchange reserves. The system has the capacity to generate almost 17,500 MW of electricity but it is not working at its full capacity because of the rising costs of electricity generation. A severe shortage of gas and the skyrocketing cost of imported furnace oil have pushed the country’s power sector between the devil and deep blue sea: if power plants run on oil it creates a heavy circular debt, otherwise large-scale load shedding is the only option.
Table2.3 Electricity generation by source 2003 -2010
Year Hydro Share % Thermal Share % Total 2003-04 27,477 39.8 41,617 60.2 69,094 2009-10 28,492 31.9 60,746 68.1 89,238
Table 2.3 shows the electricity generation by source since 2003. The energy consumption pattern exhibited a similar picture with the same mix of hydrothermal in the total energy consumption. As discussed earlier,the share of thermal generation was higher and, excluding hydropower, the contribution of renewable energy to the country’s energy mix remains negligible despite the vast potential of 350,000 MW in wind energy and solar potential of more than 5-6 kWH/m²/day of irradiation in many areas. Except for the electrification of a few villages in Sindh the share of wind and solar in the energy mix is still zero. The Power Sector in Pakistan
In this decade, Pakistan witnessed good economic performance until 2007. During this period, the country emerged as one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia, with rising per capita income and improved social indicators. By 2006-7, GDP was US$142.6 billion . High economic growth led to commensurate high growth in electricity demand. In the last two years the country has faced a severe energy crisis which has badly affected the country’s economy and paralyzed the daily life due to long hours of load shedding in rural and urban areas. The gap between supply and demand has grown greater since 2003. The Ministry of Water and
Power brought out a power generation policy in 2002 to NEW FACE OF PAKISTAN’S POWER SECTOR bridge the gap. Under that policy short, medium and long-term plans were devised and WAPDA was assigned GOP/MW&P Chairman PEPCO the task of completing power projects having an installed Chairman WAPDA MD PEPCO capacity of 5,085 MW . This included 4,325 MW of Chairman WAPDA MD PEPCO MEMBERS: HydelHydel power, power, PEPCOPEPCO Management Management hydropower and 760 MW by using gas as the primary Finance,Finance, Water Water TeamTeam fuel. Unfortunately, these projects could not be WATER FINANCEFINANCE POWERPOWER COMMONCOMMON RESTRUCTUREDRESTRUCTURED POWER POWER WING WING WING SERVICESSERVICES completed within the stipulated time, causing a serious WING RESIDUAL WAPDA AUTONOMOUS COMPANIES WITH • HOSPITALS WINGS PART INDEPENDENT COMMERCIAL • ACADEMY TRANSITION TO OPERATIONS THROUGH BOD energy crisis. CORPORATE •ETC ENTITIES
HYDELHYDEL HYDELHYDEL WATER SERVICESSERVICES GENCOsGENCOs NTDC DISCOs FINANCEFINANCE POWERPOWER
7 (4) (1) (9)
10 Institutional Setup of the Electricity Sector
The power sector of Pakistan is being served by two power entities: the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) catering to most of the country, and the Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC) serving the city of Karachi and adjoining areas. WAPDA was established in 1958 and KESC in 1913.
In 1998 the GOP approved a strategic plan that aimed at unbundling WAPDA’s power wing into four separate power generation companies, a national transmission company (the National Transmission and Dispatch Company, NTDC), and eight distribution Companies (DISCOs). In the same year an independent National Electric Power Regulatory Agency (NEPRA) was also created. The purpose of the reform was to install a corporate and business culture through the adoption of good business practices, enhancing productivity, efficiency and improving the quality of services by setting performance indicators. PEPCO as a private limited management company owned by GOP was also created in 1998 to steer, manage and oversee the corporatization and commercialization reforms program. On 2nd October 2010, the GOP dissolved the PEPCO after it failed to achieve its objectives. All distribution companies (DISCOs) were made independent entities and are responsible for meeting their own expenses.
The total nominal power generation capacity of Pakistan as of June 30th 2010 was 21,593 MW, of which 14,576 MW (67.50%) was thermal, 6,555 MW (30.36%) was hydroelectric and 462 MW (2.14%) was nuclear. Institutional Framework for Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution
National Transmission and Dispatch Company
The National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) is in charge of operating the transmission system (220-kV and 500-kV network) and performing the dispatch function. NTDC is a public sector company and came into existence as a result of restructuring WAPDA in 1998. NTDC obtained a transmission license from NEPRA in 2002 to engage in the exclusive transmission business for a term of thirty years. NTDC is responsible for the overall reliability, planning and coordination of electricity transmission in Pakistan.
11 Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) WAPDA was created in 1958 as a Semi-Autonomous Body for the purpose of coordinating and giving a
12 The NEPRA ACT This Act conferred powers on NEPRA, which include the power to determine tariff rates, charges and other terms and conditions for the supply of electric power services through generation, transmission and distribution companies and to recommend these to the Federal Government for notification.
Need for Alternate Energy and Power Sector Challenges in Pakistan Pakistan’s power sector is plagued with a number of problems and challenges that are undermining its progress. Some of these are, notably, the availability and efficiency of existing power plants. Many of these are incurring high monetary losses due to an ineffective management. A ‘circular debt’ has been inflicting the power sector for a long time, due to irregularities in payments to power producers. Over the years, wrong decisions in the power sector have propelled a shift from low cost generation sources (hydroelectricity) to high cost generation sources (thermal).
Since then, although some areas still need to be electrified, there still exist numerous transmission constraints in grid extension. Additionally, there are high transmission losses incurred by distribution companies and low revenue collection. The main factor behind all these problems has been attributed to an overall erosion of sound governance practices that would have otherwise prevented the snags from developing in the first place. For NEPRA to be a completely independent institution, its interests must not be compromised by its subservience to any other Ministries.
There has been a systemic failure to augment the power generation capacity of the country. Existing power plants have been strained beyond capacity by being operated round the clock: this does not accommodate the maintenance critical to the healthy functioning of the power plants. There has been a deficiency of will to set up new power plants and those that have surfaced are rental power plants. Due to the compromised efficiency of power plants, the supply of power to the grid has been greatly been affected. Fuel consumption has substantially increased in Pakistan; however,the existing power plants have continued to operate at lower efficiencies.
Currently, the gap between the generation cost and consumer price is enormous, thereby creating a great strain on Pakistan’s economy . Another issue is that despite there being a multitude of sources that generate electricity, the end users are not always the beneficiaries of this. On a regional basis, during 2010-11, Sindh is the biggest contributor to line losses (37.6%) followed by Khyber Pakhthunkhwa (35.3%) . Punjab and Baluchistan fared relatively better with line losses at 14.1% and 18% respectively. The losses in the system are due to the transmission of power in the system and administrative losses caused by illegally set up power connections. There is a great need to improve existing distribution and transmission lines, grid stations and power transformers. Additionally, a campaign to detect points of pilferage must be started so that appropriate mitigation measures are taken. It is pertinent to note that since January 2010, the Government of Pakistan had registered about 24,590 cases of theft and about 1.47 million unpaid bills, which has undoubtedly made an incredible dent in the national exchequer.
Industry Needs There has to be a sufficient and reliable supply of power with competitive pricing of fuel. Due to frequent power disruptions, the cost impacts are extremely high. This entails a lower utilization of capacity; loss of man-hours; loss of productivity; higher incidents of electronic equipments damage; a decline in exports and erosion of an environment conducive for business. In many places, the power machinery is not in good condition and needs to be upgraded. Therefore, an investment is required on machinery maintenance and
13 refurbishment. Renewable Energy is a Solution for the Energy Crisis in
14 Generation Sources Hydro Coal HSD RFO Gas Nuclear Import from Iran Annual Generation (GWh) 3132 11 2 3359 1,943 106 22 % 36.3 0.1 0 38.9 22.5 1.2 0.3 Cost- Rs./kWh 0.37 4.7 15.74 11.29 7.11 0.51 4.25
Projected Gas Supply (Without Imports)MMcfd 7,000
6,000 Committed Anicipated
5,000 Anicipated
4,000
3,000
2,000 Committed
1,000
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: DGPC
15 60,000
RFO (Rs./M.Ton)
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
11/1/10 8/1/10 5/1/10 2/1/10 11/1/09 8/1/09
5/1/09 2/1/09
11/1/08 8/1/08 5/1/08 2/1/08 11/1/07 8/1/07 5/1/07 2/1/07 11/1/06 8/1/06 5/1/06
2/1/06 11/1/05
8/1/05 5/1/05 2/1/05 11/1/04 8/1/04 5/1/04 2/1/04 11/1/03
16 CHAPTER 3
CHAPTER THREE
Renewable Energy Landscape in Pakistan
A transition towards a low carbon economy would involve an increased use of greener energy sources, namely renewable sources, with a simultaneous reduction of fossil fuels. As the climate change discourse gains momentum in the country, efforts are being directed towards exploring alternate sources of energy that do not involve greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time it is being recognized that cheap, reliable sources of energy are urgently required for reducing the current energy crisis in the country, reducing dependence on imported fossil fuel and compensating for the depleting gas reserves. Though this scheme of things does pose a great challenge, it also presents itself as a unique opportunity to invest in and develop renewable energy that will have far reaching consequences for sustainable development.
Great potential for the development of renewable energy sources exists in Pakistan yet it largely remains untapped. Of all sources of renewable energy, hydropower is the most mature and well developed and given the current state of technology and expertise available, has the greatest potential for expansion. Micro hydro schemes have also been developed, especially in the Northern Areas; current efforts are being directed to expanding the use of micro hydro plants in other parts of the country. The potential of wind and solar sources has been gauged, revealing vast reserves: these are rapidly being developed in different locations throughout the country. Foreign investment is being drawn to wind energy through incentives and subsidies that are complementing the government’s own effort to harness the vast wind potential that is available. A great amount of sunlight can be harnessed especially in rural and remote areas where the demand is limited owing to small populations and it is not economically feasible or technically possible to extend the national grid. Waste to energy facilities would be instrumental in developing waste mechanisms while also harnessing energy. Bio gas plants have been used since the 1970s and there are ambitious plans to expand their use in rural areas where fuel is readily available. Bio-fuels, owing to the presence of raw materials, are also a viable option for Pakistan to explore. Sporadic attempts have been made in this context. As an agricultural country, Pakistan boasts of great potential for biomass that still needs to be developed to become a commercially viable source of energy. Other renewable sources, namely geothermal and tidal energy, have not been given sufficient attention and thus there is little technical data available on the potential of deriving energy from these sources. Preliminary studies have revealed significant potential in certain areas. Potential sources of renewable energy that could be exploited to initiate a long term, sustainable program of energy security are summarized in Table3.1.
19 Table3.1 Summary of Renewable Energy Sources in Pakistan
Installed Potential No. Source Cost per Unit Capacity Comments MW On Grid 1 Solar 17 Rs. 0MW 2.9 million Despite the vast potential, large scale projects (on national have yet to be launched. Remote electrification Grid) through photovoltaic technologies, solar desalination plants, solar cookers, solar water heaters and solar dryers is in use in different areas. 2 Wind 8.6 -13.85 0MW 346,000 Micro wind projects are underway to provide Rs. (on national electrification in remote villages of Sindh and Grid) Balochistan; 691 households catered to. 18 projects of 50 MW to the grid in the pipeline. The wind corridor at Gharo alone has a potential of 50,000 MW. 3 Hydro 0.37 Rs 6,464 MW 46, 000 Only 14% of the current potential has been utilized; however, projects are fast underway to increase the share of hydropower in the energy mix from the 6.63 MTOE in 2009-2010 to 38.93 MTOE by 2030. Small 6.02 Rs 88.7 MW 1463 MW Large potential exists in the Northern Areas and Hydropower the canal network in Punjab and Sindh. Use of small hydropower in remote, rural areas could contribute extensively to economic development; ambitious plans for the widespread use of small hydropower in Giglit Baltistan are underway. 4 Waste to 6.02 Rs 0MW 6,000 MW No project underway for MSW though NGOs are Energy for MSW operating on a small scale. Two projects in Punjab and Sindh underway using agricultural waste with a total potential of 23 MW 5 Biogas * 0MW Vast, to be Around 8,000 plants operational throughout the determined country, great potential for use in rural areas, government planning to establish 25,000 plants in the near future 6 Bio-fuels * 0MW Vast, to be Immense potential of ethanol and bio-diesel determined production, pilot projects underway 7 Geothermal * 0MW 2, 000 MW Evidence of geotonic activity and through identified, 80, preliminary surveys, potential for geothermal to 000 MW provide on grid energy expected. No effort to study estimated and assess potential, no on grid project planned for the near future. Small scale use, currently limited to heating pumps. 8 Tidal * 0MW 1.1 MW Potential of Sindh creeks identified after limited [Karangi- survey, potential also at Sonmiani Hor and Kalmat Kohchar Khor on the Balochistan Coast. Need assessment Creek] of the potential of energy generation conducted. No project initiated yet.
According to the Planning Commission's Task Force Report on Climate Change, the notable ongoing and planned activities for the development of RE in Pakistan are: 1. Wind power capacity of 6MW has already been connected to the grid, while 18 wind power projects of 50 MW each are underway. 2. Electrical generation capacity based on renewable forms of energy is envisioned to be increased to 880MW by 2025 and 9,700 MW by 2030.The details of increase in the generation capacity are given in Annexes 1, 2 and 3. 3. The Alternative Energy Development Board and PCRET are also pursuing the development and dissemination of several renewable energy technologies including biogas plants, solar water heaters, solar cookers, efficient wood fuel stoves, and photovoltaic systems for rural households and remote areas, as well as small windmills for pumping drinking water for Renewable Energy Technologies. 4. It is envisaged that through the Remote Village Electrification Program, 400 villages [54, 000 homes] will be electrified by AEDB through wind and solar sources. 5. Approval for the construction of the 4, 500 MW Basha Dam project to start at the end of 2010 and be completed in 8-10 years. Some 300 mini hydroelectric power plants, largely in Gilgit Baltistan, are currently connected to the grid. Similar projects were approved in August and September 2010 to increase the total number of mini and micro hydroelectric power plants.
20 CHAPTER 4 22 CHAPTER FOUR
Green Jobs
Green jobs help to accelerate the transition from jobs in high carbon to low carbon sources. For the last 50 years, global economic growth has been unprecedented. However, this has led to fast environmental deterioration. It is noteworthy that during 1980-2005, the World’s GDP has doubled; however the degradation of the world’s ecosystems has been about 60%.
In this context, International Labor Organization (ILO) has taken the lead and joined hand with the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) to assess, analyze and promote the creation of decent and green jobs because of the needed environmental policies. This initiative encourages a concerted effort by governments, employers and trade unions to promote jobs within the paradigm of environment and development. Work under the Green Jobs Initiative so far has focused on collecting evidence and different examples of green job creation from around the world. The benefits to the nations from an emerging green economy are many. Advantages of Green Jobs
The creation of green jobs would help to reduce the environmental impacts of enterprises and economic ultimately to levels that are sustainable. Although the potential for green jobs is found in many sectors of the economy, from energy supply to recycling and from agriculture and construction to transportation, this report is confined to the creation of green jobs in the energy sector, to contribute to preserving and restoring the quality of the environment.
Green jobs help to cut energy consumption and to ‘de-carbonize’ the economy. They also reduce greenhouse gas emissions, minimize or avoid all forms of waste and pollution, and protect and restore ecosystems and biodiversity. Green jobs play a crucial role in reducing the environmental footprint of economic activity. This reduction is gradual and different jobs contribute to different degrees. Workers manufacturing fuel-efficient or hybrid cars, for example, contribute less to reducing emissions from transport than those working in public transport systems. Moreover, what is considered fuel-efficient today will no longer qualify in next decade. The notion of a green job is thus not absolute, but there are ‘shades’ of green and this concept will evolve over time.
Pakistan is the world’s sixth most populous country. With an estimated population of 173.5 million in 2010 and an annual growth rate of 2.05 percent, it is expected that Pakistan will become the fourth largest nation in the world by 2050 . With a median age of around 20 years, Pakistan is also a “young” country. It is estimated that there are currently 118 million Pakistanis below the age of 30 years. The total working labor force is 55 million, out of which 52 million are employed.
The ILO conducted the first survey in 2006 to assess the quantum of the labor force including in energy sector. The purpose of survey was to determine a detailed strategy and plan to promote the creation of decent work. According to the survey, the total Labor Force (male and female) in Pakistan is 49 million and share of
23 the energy sector is 0.3 million. The survey included labor force of water and gas in the energy sector. The combined growth rate was 4.8% in 2007. Green Jobs in Pakistan
WAPDA is the main institution with the potential for creating green jobs in Pakistan. More than 15,000 employees are operating 15 hydropower stations in the country, which contribute 32.8 % of the electricity needs. Presently, only WAPDA is training labor at its Hydel Training Center at Mangla. WAPDA has eight Regional Training Centers (RTCs) throughout the country to train labor in hydropower. Declining ‘brown’ industries in Pakistan
The Case of KESC and the Role of NEPRA The unannounced closure of oil based thermal production by KESC because of high generation costs has created major political turmoil in Karachi, which is Pakistan’s major business hub. The management of KESC recently fired 4,000 employees (date) following the announcement of a major downsizing drive. This has generated intense commotion among the laid off KESC employees who have also vandalized the building to show their resentment to the decision. There must be the introduction of proactive and people-friendly measures to support those who have been laid off, by providing them alternate employment. One area to explore is green jobs development, which has the potential for large scale exploitation. This could sustain a level of social protection and income generation not seen before in the country.
The KESC Electricity Infrastructure The KESC is an integrated power utility with exclusive franchise rights to serve Karachi and its surrounding areas, with a licensed network area spanning 6,000 square Kilometers. The KESC is one of the city's largest employers: around 17,000 people currently work for the Company. It is also one of the oldest companies in Karachi and was established before the creation of Pakistan in 1947. Incorporated on September 13, 1913, under the Indian Companies Act of 1882, the company was nationalized in 1952 but was re-privatized on November 29, 2005. KESC came under new management in September 2008; a significant number of professional managers with experience in running utility and other large companies have joined under this management and will be running it until the company is turned into a ‘best practice’ utility. KESC is listed on all three of Pakistan's stock exchanges: the Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad Stock Exchanges.
The operation of KESC is based on fully integrated power utility involved in generation, transmission, and distribution. The total installed capacity of KESC is 2,350 MW (1,350 MW Own capacity; 379 MW IPPs; 620 MW WAPDA/NDTC; Aggreko Rental 50 MW) but its actual generation capacity is 1,400 MW. This is due to lost generation capacity, the high cost of furnace oil and shortfalls in the gas supply.
KESC has 17,000 employees, 52% (8,840) permanent and 8,160 (48%) on contract. Table 4.2 shows the employee categories.
24 Table4.2. Staff Hierarchy Employees Staff (Workers)89% Officers 11% 17,000 15130 1870
Pakistan Employment Trends Skills 4.5 0.82 Share in the economy The Employment challenge 4 Share in employment 0.8 3.5 0.78
3 0.76
The Ministry of Labor and Manpower and the MOWP 2.5 0.74 should take initiatives to prioritize the creation of green 2 0.72 jobs, which would help to generate employment for 1.5 0.7 1 0.68 people. There are tremendous opportunities in the Employment of professionals and Technicians by Economic 0.5 Sector 0.66 hydropower sector, particularly in civil works in which 0 0.64
1999-2000
01 2002 2001-
2003-2004
2005-2006 indigenous labor can be employed.
In 2007 the Ministry of Labor and Manpower,in collaboration with the ILO and the UNDP,published a report on Labor Market Information. According to that report, the share of employment of labor in the water and electricity sectors is declining as shown in
It should be noted that the renewable energy (RE) sector is considerably more labor intensive than the thermal power sector and RE could play a vital role in engaging people and fulfilling the increasing energy demands of the nation in a sustainable manner. The comparison of employment generation between thermal and hydro power plants is discussed in detail in The RE sector, especially hydropower, is more labor intensive during the execution and operational phases.
Comparison of employment generation in power plants
Capital cost
(Million Rupees) after (months)
Annual
(Million
Rupees)
recurring
completion
expenditure Name of the Project
construction
Capacity MW
Employ per MW
during construction
Employment generation
Total
Total
Local Local Completion time
Foreign Foreign
Employ per MW Construction
Operation& maintenance after
CHASMA NUCLEAR Unit1 3&4 84 600 39,473 99,538 139,011 2,000 1,550 2.58 3.33 (Nuclear)
11,537. 13,314
24,85I.5
NEW GOLAN GOL2(Hydro) 48 106 3485 2301 5787 1,236 328 3 11.66
570 385
184.267
COMBINED CYCLE PLANT 0.6- 3 24 400 6266 12134 18,400 72 308 0.18
NANDIPUR (Thermal) 6778 0.7
148.48
6926.26
25 In addition to this employment generation, the cost of electricity generated from hydropower will be more economical than other resources. Moreover, the operational costs of thermal and nuclear power plants are
26 CHAPTER 5
CHAPTER FIVE
Current skill gaps in the Renewable Energy Sector
Pakistan is blessed with plenty of potential in the renewable energy sector but is unable to exploit that potential fully because of a lack of skilled personnel and technicians. The Universities and research institutes can play a vital role in equipping skilled personnel to contribute to stabilizing the energy crisis in Pakistan. This crisis creates a chaotic situation in many sectors of the economy. The skill gaps observed in the RE sub-sectors are given in the tables below, obtained through interactions with research institutes, industries, PCRET, the Planning Commission of Pakistan and the AEDB.
Table5.1 Skill gaps in Biomass, Biodiesel, and Biogas sectors
Sub- Functional sector Area Skill Gaps
Biomass / Bio-diesel / Biogas Deeper knowledge of oil bearing trees, seed quality, yield and extraction. Specialized knowledge of bio-diesel - agronomy, botany, crops, soil and climate research. R&D Skills and experience in pest and disease management Project Management & Project management skills - planning & co-ordination Consultancy Manufacturing Design & fabrication skills in biomass gasifies Hot gas conditioning systems in biomass gasifiers Standard design and processes in designing biogas plants Construction & Erection & commissioning of large scale, on-grid biomass Installation power projects. Operation & Exposure in handling biomass-based combustion systems Biomass / Bio-diesel / Biogas Maintenance Operation and maintenance of fuel-handling systems Feed stock planning and logistics in biomass collection Developing village-level franchisee networks. Marketing Techno-commercial marketing skills Vendor development
Solar (PV & Thermal) Knowledge and exposure in advanced areas like wafer technology, semiconductor technology. R&D Design skills in installing BIPV in buildings
Project Lack of awareness & experience in handling concentrated solar Management collectors &Consultancy Manufacturing Low skills in module assembly System integration in solar PV Solar Installation and commissioning of solar thermal systems (SWH). Construction Grid integration of Megawatt scale solar PV power projects & Installation Operation & Shortage of skills in trouble shooting of circuitry of solar PV lanterns and home lighting systems Maintenance Techno-commercial analysis of mega projects in on-grid & off grid Marketing solar PV
29 Table5.2 Skill gap in solar energy sector
Hydro Feasibility and assessment potential of hydro projects. R&D Real time digital simulation tools Project Surveys, investigations and hydrological studies Development & Design and implementation of run-of-the-river (ROR) projects GIS / GPS based planning of hydro resources Consultancy Construction & Erection and installation of hydro turbines Hydro Installation Performance testing of hydro projects
Operation & Assembly and troubleshooting of turbines Maintenance Other issues Lack of soft skills like reporting, data collection at technician level
Table5.3 Skill gaps in Hydropower sector
Wind R&D Off-shore wind technology Skills in optimization of blade angles for maximizing energy output Better electrical energy storage batteries for small scale wind mills Development of high-strength fatigue resistant materials for wind turbines Design improvements in step-up gear boxes
Project Design techniques to match wind resources and rating of the installations Development & Consultancy
Wind Construction Installation of high capacity wind turbines & Installation Operation & Failure analysis of gearboxes of wind turbines Maintenance Marketing Techno-commercial marketing of wind projects in energy intensive Industries Other issues Difficult to retain trained and knowledgeable manpower
Table5.4 Skill gap in Wind energy sector
The lists of Universities recognized by Pakistan’s Engineering Council as having the ability to contribute to minimizing this skill gap are given in Annex 4. Unfortunately, only a very few of them is doing any appreciable work in the renewable energy sector.
The Solar Energy Research was initiated in the Department of Physics in the University of Karachi in 1955. The current research interests in this Department are solar and wind energy estimation and modeling in favorable locations of Pakistan. Energy studies planning and strategies regarding the energy crisis are still in progress. Three M.Phil. and two PhDs have been completed in energy and environment. The University of Engineering and Technology Lahore signed an agreement with the Arab Circle Renewable Energy (ACRE) in 2009. The objectives of the agreement was to develop Academia/industry linkages between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in renewable energy, to train personnel and engineers in the field of
30 Renewable Energies and to develop research and development projects.
The COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT) is offering a one and half year M. Sc. Energy Management program. The basic objective of the program is to manage energy projects and only basic level courses are being offered, which are not sufficient to minimize the skill gap in the renewable energy sector.
A large number of Polytechnic Institutes in Pakistan offer 3-year Diploma programs that train technologists in various trades such as Electrical, Mechanical, Civil, Auto and Diesel Technology, Electronics, Chemical, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning, Textileand Instrumentation.
In spite of these efforts, a lot remains to be done in this regard, as there is no training institute or any courses or degrees offered in the field of wind energy, biogas or other fields RE fields. Some of these gaps are common across all sectors and can be addressed through workshops and training programs. Industry experts should be hired as visiting Faculty to eliminate RE specific skill gaps. ‘Training of Trainer’ modules should be developed so that skilled and knowledgeable personnel can meet the identified needs. There is a requirement to have an institutional model to address this requirement.
Moreover, the Technical Boards of Education of all Provinces need to develop comprehensive curricula on renewable energy to generate skilled personnel to overcome this skill gap. Some courses of varying durations and having useful contents are proposed for the curricula of Universities and other Training Institutes. The details of these courses are given in Annex 5. Skill development is of paramount importance in job creation, improving productivity and economic growth and requires concerted efforts by industries, institutions and NGOs to address the gaps identified
5.2 Addressing the Gaps in Wind Power Generation
The basic reason for the failure of commissioning IPPs’ wind and other RE power projects is the lack of skilled personnel to design, operate and understand issues regarding wind machines. Table shows the IPPs which have been commissioned but so far failed to mobilize at the site.
Table5.5.Licenses issued by NEPRA to Wind IPPs
Name of IPP Capacity Date of Granting Tariff in Commiss- (MW) License Rs./kWh ioning Date 1 Green Power Pvt. Ltd 49.5 27-Apr-2007 8.845272 Dec-08 2 Dawood Power Ltd 49.5 6-Dec-2007 10.2082 Oct-08 3 Zorlu Enerji Pakistan Ltd 49.5 23-May-2007 10.4109 Jan-08 4 Arabian Sea Wind Energy 49.5 12-May-2007 10.2512 Jan-08 Pvt. Ltd 6 Milergo Pakistan Ltd. 250 15-May-2007 6.96531 Jan-08
Column 4 shows the tariff, which is comparatively very high, as all the required trained personnel has to be imported from other countries. The engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) costs of wind energy projects also indicate that the tariff and non-energizing of wind energy projects in Pakistan is comparatively high in civil and electrical works. This high cost is again due to the lack of local skilled manpower.
31 Table5.6 Cost of wind projects
ork
Engineering & Testing Energy Equipment Sub-station Cost Electrical W Project Civil Work Management & Supervision Project Cost Total EPC Cost US $ Million 0.156 101. 5.1 4 1.4 0.48 112.2
32 CHAPTER 6 34 CHAPTER SIX
Green Jobs in the Biogas Sector
Over the years, there has been a substantial increase in the consumption of gas in Pakistan. Due to the shelving of the Kalabagh Dam multipurpose hydropower project and abnormal delays in other hydropower projects have overburdened the existing natural gas reserve. Nevertheless, Table shows that since 1991-2, with the indiscriminate use of natural gas, especially in power generation and domestic use, the country is facing a gas deficit of 600 to 1,300 MCFD (million cubic feet gas per day) in both the summer and winter seasons.
According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan (2009-10) gas consumption has increased by 6.8 per cent annually in last decade. In 2010, the average demand for natural gas in winter has been over 5,190 MCFD, while the total production was 3,895 MCFD, resulting in a shortfall of 1,295 MCFD. The situation thus warranted countrywide gas load shedding, in spite of gas production increasing by 1.6 per cent during 2009- 10 over the previous year.
Table6.1 Gas consumption 1991-2008
GAS CONSUMPTION (Billion CFt) 1991-20081 Year Households Commercial Cement Fertilizer Power Industry (CNG) Total 1991-92 71 13 12 101 194 96 25 487 2007-08 204 34 13 200 430 323 72 1,275
The extensive use of gas increased the share of gas consumption which stood at 43.7 percent in the total energy mix, up from 34.7% during fiscal year 2003-4 . The prevailing current rate of gas use will increase the annual gas consumption and lead to depletion of gas reserves: domestic gas production is expected to fall from the current almost 4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) to 2 Bcfd by 2020. Demand, on the other hand, is expected to soar to 8 Bcfd by that time, creating a six Bcfd shortfall. To overcome this shortage GoP has decided to import 2.2 Bcfd from Iran and 3.2 Bcfd from Turkmenistan. Gas from Turkmenistan would be shared by India and Pakistan.
Beside an exponential use of gas, the piped natural gas covers just under 19% of the population for domestic use in urban areas while the rural area coverage is only 1.4%. The country has made remarkable progress in electrifying both its rural and urban settlements. In 1973 Dung cakes, Piped gas electricity was available to only 5% of rural households. Coal, 0.2 5.5 (natural Gas, This figure now stands at 70%. In urban areas, 97% of Charcoal, 0.1 1.4 Cylinder gas households have been provided with electricity. But on Kerosene, 4.2 (LPG), 4 the other side there is no major change in the use of biomass for energy consumption, particularly in rural Firewood, 32 areas. The share of fuel wood in the domestic sector is Electricity, 42 Accessories 54%, dung 18%, agricultural waste 14%, natural gas 1.4 (bulbs, 7 %, kerosene and LPG 3% and electricity 4%. Agriculture residues, 2.3 Candles, 1.3 According to the Pakistan Household Survey (2004-05),
35 the graph shows average monthly household expenditures disaggregated by rural and urban areas and expenditure by fuel types. In rural areas there are different fuel sources. Rural areas spend most of their energy expenditure on cooking fuels: around 45% of their energy expenditure goes on solid biomass fuels: firewood, agricultural residues and dung cakes. An additional 12% goes to LPG, kerosene, natural gas and candles, which are used for cooking and lighting. The graph also provides the energy expenditure divided among fuels in the average rural household in Pakistan. Knowing that a considerable share of fuel in the total primary fuel comes from biomass, there is a lack of national policies on the efficiency of biomass, which result in massive deforestation, loss of bio-diversity, and above all negative health impacts from indoor air pollution. Biogas Sector and Environment
Pakistan has low forest cover having only 4.5 % of the total 900 450
800 400 area, of which only 5% of the area is protected. Almost 70% Firewood.Qty. in 000 cub. metres Value Rs. (million of country’s wood production is used as fuel. About 9,000 700 350 acres of land is reforested every year. To control 600 300 deforestation, create green jobs and to protect the 500 250 environment the adoption of biogas is the best option in 400 200 Pakistan. These activities will not only be beneficial to 300 150 200 human health but will also have a positive impact on the 100 100 50 environment. This is the best opportunity to employ a large 0 0
2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 2000-01 1999-00 1998-99 1997-98 1996-97 1995-96 1994-95 1993-94 1992-93 1991-92 1990-91 1989-90 1988-89 number of rural people in overcoming the energy crisis. The 1987-88 unexploited bio-energy sector could have the potential to Source:- Forest Economist, Pakistan Forest Institute, Peshawar create thousands of green jobs across the country, particularly in the biogas area.
To address the energy crisis, high consumption of firewood and environmental degradation, there is a need for serious attention to developing technologies which use biomass more efficiently. One of the most efficient uses of biomass is biogas. Potential of Biogas in Pakistan
Pakistan is the fifth largest milk producer in the world and is ranked 13th in cattle population. The livestock sector in Pakistan plays a key role in the agricultural economy. Agriculture contributes 24.5% to the GDP, employs 50% of the labor force, and accounts for about 60% of export earnings. Livestock as sub-sector of agriculture contributes around 49% which is around 11.4% of overall GDP. Income from livestock and livestock products is the main source of cash income (43%) at the national level followed by remittance (34%) and crops (20%) . Although biogas technology was introduced in 1974 so far only 4,867 Biogas units have been commissioned, against the potential of five million plants . However, the Rural Support Program Network (RSPN) has a development plan (known as PDBP) to set up 300,000 biogas plants across Pakistan. The first module of the PDBP aims to set up 14,000 biogas plants in Central Punjab and so far the Rural Support Programmes Network has installed 1,172 plants in eight Districts.
Biogas has many advantages. It is not only used for domestic energy need but also used to generate electricity in North America. In Germany, there are currently 367,400 people employed in the sector alone,
36 which represents an increase of 129% since 2004. In the US, it is expected that 800,000 new jobs will be created directly and indirectly by 2022. India has made tremendous progress in the biogas sector, where plants were experimentally introduced in the 1930s and now more than four million biogas plants have been installed. According to a UNEP report India will witness the creation of around a million jobs in the biogas sector alone by 2012. The table below shows the potential and present status of biogas development in 4 Asian countries.
Table6.2 Biogas plants in South Asia
Biogas Plants in South Asia Pakistan India Nepal Bangladesh Potential in Million 5.71 10.7 1. 9 3 Units Installed 4,875 4,067,345 204,069 34,4842 Achievement % 0.087 37.97 11 1.15
The progress in Bangladesh is remarkable. The biogas technology program was first undertaken in Bangladesh in 1999. In the same year the installation of 5,000 biogas digesters were installed, which is better than total score of Pakistan.
The Netherlands Development Organization (SNV) and UNDP carried out a study in central Punjab on the feasibility of a household biogas program in Pakistan in 2007 and documented the cause of failure of biogas plants. It was found that there was total lack of training and orientation for users on routine operation and minor maintenance works. The users were not provided the recommended seven days to build the technical capacity of local manpower to construct and supervise the installation of biogas plants. It was also observed that there was a need for user’s training on plant operation and maintenance to ensure the continual functioning of the biogas plant. Most plants failed because of defective operation and maintenance practices such as: under-feeding, lack of regular feeding, improper water-dung ratio, users’ lack of knowledge on feeding requirements, improper use of the main gas valve, and zero maintenance of defective parts. Other reasons included construction faults and lack of a standardized product, as well as lack of maintenance services and monitoring. The Council for Renewable Energy Technologies (PCRET) has approved the “Nepal design” biogas plants but still little progress has been made.
The findings with respect to training are summarized in Table6.3 Model for availability of human resources
Chinese Model no previous Indian Deenbandhu Nepalese GGC Model mention of Chinese model Model Availability of Trained technical manpower is not -Trained technical -Trained technical human available in Pakistan. manpower is not available manpower is not available. resources Special training needed. -Needs training -Needs training
Potential for Household Biogas in Pakistan
Biogas potential is determined by the availability of animal dung and water, warm temperature, availability of construction materials, land and availability of human resources for plant construction and operation. The Livestock Census (2006) showed that there are a total of 57 million cattle/buffaloes in Pakistan. However according of the Economic Survey of Pakistan (2010) the cattle and buffalo population totalled 65.1 million as shown in table below.
37 Table6.4 Totalpopulation of cattle in Pakistan
Livestock in millions Cattle Buffalo Sheep Goat Camel Total Livestock Census 2006 29.6 27.3 26.5 53.8 0.9 138.1 Economic Survey -2010 34.3 30.8 27.8 59.9 1 153.8
38 CHAPTER 7
CHAPTER SEVEN
Hydropower: An Avenue for Green Jobs in Pakistan
Introduction Hydropower is the energy derived from the gravitational force of moving water that can be harnessed to meet energy demands. Inextricably linked to the water cycle, hydropower is a renewable source of energy as water is constantly replenished by precipitation. Hydropower has been employed for centuries and in modern times, it has emerged as the most significant source of renewable energy in the world; by 2009, hydroelectricity was the world’s most rapidly growing major fuel. Hydropower supplies nearly one-fifth of the world’s electricity, second in importance only to fossil fuel-generated electricity. In many countries, hydroelectric power provides nearly all of the electrical power. In 1998, the hydroelectric plants of Norway and the Democratic Republic of the Congo provided 99 percent of each country's power; and hydroelectric plants in Brazil provided 91 percent of total used electricity. With increasing concerns over greenhouse gas emissions, hydropower is rising in prominence as it offers a reliable, cheap and renewable alternative to fossil fuels and emits no greenhouse gases.
In the global arena, countries are increasingly incorporating hydropower within their mitigation strategies to reduce their emissions while simultaneously not compromising on their populations’ energy needs. China, which ranks 1st in the total emissions produced in the world, and Brazil (4th), Russia (6th) and Canada (10th) are identified as countries which are rapidly increasing the share of hydropower in their energy mix. According to the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), hydropower leads to the key area of mitigation: energy sources and supply, and energy use in various economic sectors beyond land use, agriculture and forestry. With its various advantages, hydropower has continued to dominate the international discourse on mitigation of climate change. Much like other renewable energy sources, the use of hydropower leads to no emissions but it stands out amongst its renewable counterparts as hydropower is complemented with mature and economical technology that has evolved over years of widespread use. As a consequence, hydropower as a mitigation option has commanded the interest of the developed world. Many developing countries are turning to hydropower to reduce their increasing emissions as well as fueling their growing economies. Pakistan is no different and has the added advantage of extensive indigenous reserves complemented by a long history of hydropower projects.
Hydropower in Pakistan Pakistan’s energy woes began at the time of Independence when power availability in the newly formed state was heavily restricted. The Region saw its first hydroelectric plant in March 1925 with a 1 MW micro hydro project constructed on the Lower Bari Doab to meet the electricity needs of the Mitchells Fruit Farms and Food Processing unit. After Independence, the 9.2 MW plant constructed in Malakand by the British was upgraded to 20 MW to cope with increasing power demands. In July and December 1952, small hydro power stations
41 were commissioned on canals at Rasul (Punjab) and Dargai (KPK) having 22 MW and 20 MW generating capacity respectively. The process gained momentum after the formulation of the Pakistan Water and Development Power Authority (WAPDA) in 1959. In May-June 1959, a small hydroelectric power station, Chichoki Malianhad was commissioned. This 13 MW power generating center was the third small hydro power plant located on a canal in the Punjab Province after Renala (1925) and Rasul (1952). After that the 14 MW Shadiwal small hydropower plant near Gujrat and a 14 MW plant at Nandipur near Gujranwala started producing electricity in January 1961 and March 1963 respectively. By the 1960s, the total power generating capacity of the initial small hydroelectric power stations set up within Pakistan and operated by WAPDA, stood at 107 MW. In 2010, the hydropower installed capacity of Pakistan stands at 6,464 MW with many projects under development; this is expected to increase in the coming years.
7.1.3 Potential for Hydropower in Pakistan With river networks spanning the entire country, an extensive Location Potential % irrigation network and favorable terrain ranging from (MW) Share mountains and hills to flat plains, Pakistan has been endowed with an immense potential for hydropower. The total Indus River Basin 44,334 74.9 hydropower potential in the country has been estimated at Jhelum River Basin 8,027 13.6 46,000 MW of which only 14% has currently been developed. Swat & Chitral River 4,582 7.7 In November 2010, WAPDA identified the potential of hydropower as 55, 000 MW with a total potential estimated to Small Hydel 2265 3.8 be 100, 000 MW. However these figures have yet to be Total 59,208 100 verified.
Identified locations for the development of hydropower are spread throughout the country although some areas, especially the Northern Areas and Punjab, exhibit more potential for hydropower development than others.
According to estimates, the Province of KPK (24,689 MW) was identified as having the highest potential for hydropower while Balochistan (1 MW), where only modest efforts of exploring hydropower have been undertaken, had the lowest share. Gilgit-Baltistan (21,723 MW) , AJK (7,170 MW) , Punjab (6,011 MW) and Sindh (179 MW) ranged between the two extremes. The Indus Basin that extends from the mountainous north to the plains of Sindh, covering an area of approximately 1,165,000 Km², possesses enormous potential for hydropower and currently the highest number of hydropower plants have been set up in this area.
Current Use Only about 14% of the available 46,000 MW hydropower potential has so far been exploited and is currently operational. The use of hydropower is not limited to massive dams like Tarbela, Mangala and Ghazai Barotha, which produce 3478 MW, 1,000 MW and 1,450 MW respectively, but also extends to smaller dams and micro hydro structures.
Table7.1 Hydropower Stations in Operation Despite the enormous potential of hydropower, growth in this sector has been marred by lack of political will, diversion of resources to imported fossil fuels, political controversies and widespread corruption. Initially, hydropower was perceived as the preferred means of meeting the energy demands of the country and exhaustive efforts were directed to develop this indigenous source of energy. The development of the Mangla and Tarbela Dams in the ‘60s and ‘70s prompted a simultaneous growth in Pakistan’s economy with energy being more readily available at a lowered cost. Yet by the 1990s, growth in thermal energy began to displace
42 hydropower as the preferred means of energy generation. This period was marked by increased investment in thermal energy which was facilitated by government policies and enhanced by the rapid development of domestic natural gas reserves. During this time, the only notable hydropower project developed was the Kalabagh Dambut despite the completion of feasibility studies and initial assessments of the project, the Kalabagh Dam never entered the construction phase.
The proposed project was marred by political No. Project Installed Annual Energy Commercial conflicts and political rivalries that inspired such Capacity (MW) Generation (GWh) Operation Date 1. Tarbela 3,478 14,937 1977-93 controversy that, despite the resolve of certain actors 2. Mangla 1,000 4,687 1967-94 to push the project forward, the venture collapsed. 3. Warsak 243 1,050 1960-81 This was a major setback for hydropower 4. Ghazi Barotha 1,450 6,574 2003-04 development and it came amidst the almost ecstatic 5. Chashma Low 184 987 2001 fervor that characterized the exploitation of gas Head reserves. The Kalabagh Dam would have been 6. Rasul 22 37 1952 instrumental in preserving the finite gas reserves, 7. Dargai 20 146 1952 saving costs of electricity generation and diffusing the 8. Malakand 20 0 1938-52 cost of damage incurred by the gas shortfall that 9. Nandipur 14 29 1963 eventually unfolded. Yet these factors sank into 10. Chichoki Mallian 13.2 20 1959 insignificance as the country became heavily reliant 11. Shadiwal 13.5 44 1961 on energy from natural gas. Consequently, 12. Others 6 29 hydropower's share in the energy mix and more TOTAL 6,464 28,536 significantly in the electrical generation mix began dwindling rapidly.
Table7.2 Hydro-Thermal Ratio in Electricity Generation 1960-2010
Year 1960 1970 1980 1985 1990 2000 2005 2008 2010 Hydro: Thermal Mix 44:56 50:50 58:42 67:33 55:45 33:67 37:63 33:67 32:68
Table is evidence not only of hydropower's declining contribution and exploitation but also of the exhaustive efforts that were directed towards the development of thermal energy. Yet with no significant recent discovery of oil and gas in the country and severe gas shortages already appearing, hydropower is once again being pushed to center stage as a viable alternative to thermal energy to meet energy demands. In the near future, the current generation capacity of 6,464 MW is expected to increase with an addition of 1,421.2 MW by 2015. Work on these projects is already underway with at least three out of the eight listed projects to be completed by the end of 2010.
No. Name of Project PC-I Cost Hydropower Progress/Completion (Rs. Billion) (MW) 1. Mangla Dam Raising Mirpur, AJK. 62.558 180 Substantially Completed. 2. Gomal Zam Dam, FATA. 12.829 17.4 65% (Dec. 2010) 3. Satpara Dam, Gilgit Baltistan. 4.397 15.8 91% (Dec. 2010) 4. Khan Khwar, Besham, KPK. 5.363 72 97% (Dec. 2010) 5. Duber Kwar, Kohistan, KPK. 9.754 130 77% (Aug. 2011) 6. Allai Khwar, Battagram, KPK. 8.578 121 54% (Oct. 2011) 7. Jinnah Hydropower, Jinnah Barrage. 7.680 96 95% (Jun. 2011) 8. Neelum Jhelum, Neelum, AJK. 130 969 16% (Oct. 2015) TOTAL 241.159 1421.2
43 Future Trends
Realizing the significance of hydropower, both as a means of abatement of greenhouse gas emissions and the pursuit of energy security in the country, a number of hydropower projects are being considered for development. Diamer Basha, a notable addition, was commissioned in early 2010 and work on the project is fast underway.
Table 7.3 Hydropower Projects Which Can Be Undertaken For Implementation during the Next Five Years
No. Project River Location Capacity Earliest Project (MW) Initiation 1. Diamer Basha Indus GB 4500 2010 2. Golen Gol Chitral KPK 106 2010 3. Tarbela 4 th Ext. Indus KPK 960 2010 4. Kurram Tangi Kurram FATA/ KPK 84 2011 5. Kohala Jhelum AJK 1100 2010 6. Dasu Indus KPK 4320 2012 7. Bunji Indus GB 7100 2012 8. Others (Bara, Tank KPK/GB/AJK 1500 2011-2015 Zam Matilitan & Palas Valley etc.) 9. Munda Swat FATA/ KPK 740 2012 10. Patan Indus KPK 2800 2013 Total 23,210
These projects are envisioned to increase the share of hydropower in the energy mix from the current 6.63 MTOE in 2009-2010 to 38.93 MTOE by 2030 in accordance with the Energy Security Plan 2030. The total envisioned capacity of these projects adds up to 23,210 MW, far greater than the current capacity of 6, 464 MW. While the Government has shown keen interest in the development of these projects, it remains to be seen whether they will be successfully completed or share the same fate as that of the Kalabagh Dam.
44 CHAPTER 8 46 CHAPTER EIGHT
Solar Energy
The GOP had initiated a program for the electrification of the remote villages of all the provinces by the end of Year 2007. AEDB was tasked by the President and the Prime Minister to electrify the remotest villages, those which are beyond the 20 Km radius of WAPDA Grid Stations and are not viable to be electrified through conventional energy resources. In pursuit of this task AEDB prepared a Project for rural electrification in central Baluchistan in districts Chaghi and Noushki, using alternative energy sources, to begin in February 2006. The breakdown of project costs is shown in Table. AEDB prepared a project cost amounting Rs.343 million rupees (5.53 Million USD) to install 408.70 KW of solar energy to electrify 6,684 houses in Baluchistan by providing a standalone system to each household with: ! Two light 13 Watt energy saver light bulbs ! One LED 1.5 Watt Bulb ! One 5W lantern
Table8.1 income of Baluchistan residents Total Houses Monthly Bill Rs Annual Income Rs 6,684 150 12,031,200
The project involves the import of solar equipment and accessories totaling Rs. 189 million, which constitutes 55% of the total energy cost. The Staff required for execution of projects was:
Table8.2 Staff required for execution of project
Detail Cost in Million Rupees The annual Maintenance and Operation cost was Consultant Based Research 2.75 calculated at 12.087 Million rupees. The project Procurement of Machines & Equipment 257.89 proposed to collect Rs, 1,000 as upfront charges and Rs. 150 per month as service charges for Transportation of Goods 10.05 the first five years. Subsequently, the rate would Advertisement Administration 0.21 increase at the rate of Rs. 50 per year over five Communication 1 years. This amount would be utilized to meet the POL 2 annual recurring expenditures after the completion of the project. This amount is enough Maintenance & Repair of Vehicle 0.8 to provide jobs for 50 persons to maintain and TA/DA 2 operate the system in all houses and pay the cost Civil Works 8.04 of repairs. Setting of Office Accommodation 41.345 326.085 Contingency/Admin 3% 8.467 Execution Contingency 3% 8.467 343.019
47 Comments and analysis
The project did enable these remote areas of Baluchistan to electrify but did not generate any economic growth. Both districts are still the least developed areas of Pakistan and the people are demanding job opportunities by developing some sustainable projects, especially mineral mining. Without providing sustainable livelihoods to the people the solar systems did not meet their needs: some of villagers' immediately sold their systems in the market. Some systems were damaged or neglected because of lack of proper training and currently only 25 to 30% of the systems are working as of YEAR. The cost per MW of a solar system is 13.54 Million USD), which is very high compared with wind and hydro. The O & M costs 29.57 Million per Megawatt which is also very high.
Monthly Pay Rs No. of Personnel Total Annual Pay Rs
Project Director 124,000 1 3,720,000 Managers 50,000 2 3,000,000 Assistant Manager 30,000 4 3,600,000 Support Staff 15,000 4 1,800,000 Lower Staff 12,000 9 3,240,000 Divers 10,000 7 2,100,000 17,460,000
48 CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER NINE
Comparison of employment opportunities in different low Carbon Power Generation in Pakistan
The renewable energy sector has plenty of potential for engaging large numbers of people, and large numbers of green jobs. A general overview of employment generation during the execution and operational phase of nuclear, thermal and hydropower plants is given in the following table, which reveals that maximum employment is generated during the operational and maintenance phase of a hydro power plant.
Table9.1. Employment Generation in Projects (per MW)
Type of Energy Employment Per MW Employment Per MW During Execution During Operation (Energy Project) and Execution Thermal 1 0.15 0.622 Green Energy 0.86 0.97 (Hydro) 2 Small Hydro3 7.6 16.47
Moreover a comparative study done in detail in chapter 4, also made clear that the renewable energy sector, specifically hydropower,is more labor intensive than nuclear and thermal power plants (Table4.3).
Hydropower is not only the maximum generator of employment in comparison with conventional resources: it also excels in generating green jobs compared to other renewable energy resources. The reason is that, although hydropower projects have a longer gestation time, they offer employment opportunities to a skilled and semi-skilled labor force in different areas of expertise. Hydropower projects alone can contribute to the national grid production and help to mitigate the devastating floods paralyzing the economic growth of the country. On the other hand, as discussed above, Pakistan has added only of wind energy to the national grid despite having a 13,000 MW potential. This is because of the high capital costs of windmills and the lack of trained technicians. Similarly the installation and operation of solar and biogas plants demand skilled knowledge and manpower, which is a major hurdle in exploiting this huge potential. All of the stakeholders need to coordinate with each other to overcome the existing gaps. The comparison shown here makes it clear that hydropower is the foremost solution to the existing energy crisis.
51 52 CHAPTER 11
53
CHAPTER TEN
Road Map for Renewable Energy Policy (Short Medium and Long Term) and Development and Implementation
MOWP had announced a power policy in 2002, one objective of which (Clause 1.2) is to encourage and ensure the exploitation of indigenous resources, including renewable energy resources and human resources through the participation of local engineering and manufacturing capabilities. Incentives were also announced for IPPs in renewable energy to import RE plants and equipment at concessionary rates and all machinery was completely exempted from the payment of income tax, including turnover rate tax, and withholding tax on imports. In the Policy there is a target of adding 500 MW by 2010.
The five year plan (2005-10) prepared by the Planning Commission of Pakistan, set another achievable target, fixed by the GoP,in consultation with AEDB authorities, to installation an additional 100 MW of wind power by December 2005 at Kati Bander and Gharo Sindh and another 700 MW by 2010. At least 5 percent of the total national power generation capacity would be met through these resources by 2030 (i.e. 9,700 MW). In addition, under the Remote Village Electrification program, 54,000 homes would be lit by solar/wind/micro hydropower during the MTDF.AEDB would also undertake a comprehensive plan for the development of solar products like lights, fans, cookers and geysers through the participation of the private sector.
Keeping in view the slow pace of progress, yet again the GoP announced a Policy for Development of Renewable Energy for Power Generation in 2006, in which a road map for Policy Development and Implementation of renewable energy was again laid down. Road Map for Policy Development and Implementation
To develop and exploit renewable sources of energy in Pakistan, the GoP has phased in short, medium and long-term plans to add, 9,700 MW by 2030 to ensure universal access to electricity in all regions of the country.
Short TermStrategy The RE Projects achieved financial closure by June 30, 2008 with short-term targets fixed. During this phase the focus would be to develop the immediate commercial potential of small hydro, wind, solar, and biomass- based power generation. In this phase attractive power purchase tariffs would be offered so as to enable a reasonable generation capacity to be installed as ‘first-of-kind’ RE projects in the private sector that can serve as successful business and technology-assimilation demonstrators. Work on developing an appropriate regulatory framework, development, market and resource assessment, rural energy program design, pilot testing of dispersed generation systems, capacity building, and development of RE financing and market facilitation measures, will also be undertaken during this period.
Medium TermStrategy These projects, which are to achieve financial closure during the period July 1, 2008 to June 30th 2012,
55 would focus on creating a competitive environment among potential IPPs. In this phase, more competitive terms will be used to reduce the subsidy and very liberal incentives and guarantees will be offered.
Long TermStrategy This phase, with projects achieving financial closure after June 30th 2012, would be scheduled to complete projects that are fully mainstreamed and integrated within the nation’s energy planning process. Future Scenario of Green Jobs in Pakistan
The Planning Commission on 22nd March 2007 finalized and announced “Vision 2030” to develop Pakistan as a regional hub for industry, trade and education in the next two decades. Vision 2030, recognizes that electricity is the main engine though which to achieve the targets set for economic growth and poverty alleviation. At the same time, it also recognized that climate change would likely affect Pakistan and the country would grow warmer by about 1 degree C by 2030 and warmer again by 4 – 5 degrees C in the last 3 decades of this century. However, in Vision 2030, to meet the power demand until 2030, the major emphasis was placed on coal and gas based energy. Thus the hydrothermal ratio was fixed at 20:65 while the contribution of renewable energy was fixed at only 6%. As part of the strategy of increasing local energy content, a major emphasis is being placed on exploiting the 185 billion tons of coal resources for large-scale use in power generation. If the strategy is compared with the Indian one to drive energy security, then the Indian Planning Commission in the 12th Five- Year Plan decided to add another 90,000 MW capacity to the national grid, which includes 30,000 MW of hydroelectric power up to 2017. Similarly, the Indian Ministry of Renewable Energy made a plan to reach the target of 25,000 MW by the year 2012 from the current level of 17,000 MW. The Ministry also plans to get 105 of the total electricity city supply from renewable sources by 2022. Future Projection for green jobs generation in the renewable energy sector
Future Projections for Employment in the Hydropower Sector by WAPDA Pakistan’s electric power demand is growing by 10% annually. To meet this demand WAPDA made plans to develop 28 projects to add 15,830 MW by the year end 2030. It is also planned to add 15,830 MW. Of these 28 projects, 12 are multipurpose hydroelectricity projects and the remaining are ‘run-of-rivers’ projects. The multipurpose projects would help mitigate the menace of floods and increase food security, by increasing existing water storage capacity of 15 Million Acre Feet (MAF) to 35 MAF.Based on this plan the employment in hydropower sector is calculated for the following scenarios:
Table10.1 Future Projections for Employment in Hydropower Nuclear Hydro Coal Renewable Oil Gas Total Existing Capacity (2011) 400 6,703 160 0 6,845 5,672 19,540 Target set by the 2010 - 1,260 900 800 160 4,860 7,880 Achievement 0 86 0 0 1,400 1,200 2,880 Target for the year 2030 8,800 32,660 19,910 9,700 7,760 83,760 162,590 5.41% 20.10% 12.20% 5.97% 4.77% 51.50%
56 During Construction Phase (11.66 person/MW ) Operation and Maintenance Phase (3 person/MW ) During Construction Phase Operation and Maintenance (11.66 person/MW1) Phase (3 person/MW2) Employment 2020 (15830 MW 184,578 47,490 Employment 2030 (20281 MW) 236,477 60,843 Total 421,055 108,333
The present conservative demand in Gilgit-Baltistan is 200 MW, while the installed capacity of existing power stations is 91 MW. Currently 85% of the population benefits from it. The projected demand is 450 MW by the year 2020 and 1,500 MW by 2030.
Table10.2 Future Projections for Employment in Gilgit-Baltistan by WAPDA Construction Phase O&MPhase (11.66 person/MW) (3 person/MW) Employment 2020 (450 MW) 4,116.00 1,050 Employment 2030 (1500 MW) 17,490 4500 Total 21,606.00 5,550 Fig 10.1 Schedule of hydropower projects
Future Projections for Employment Generation in Hydropower Sector by AJK- Hydro Electric Board
The present power demand of AJ&K is 400 MW and the anticipated power demand in 2020 is around 1,000 MW: this could grow to 1,800 MW by 2030. The current hydropower projects have a capacity of 20.87MW and another 13 projects having a capacity of 357.3 MW would added by 2015. The Board also made plans to add 89 MW by 2020 and 500 MW by 2030. Table 10.3 Future Projections for Employment Generation in Hydropower Sector by (AJK-Hydro Electric Board) Construction Phase (11.66 O&M Phase (3 person/MW) person/MW) Employment 2015 (378.17 MW) 4,409 1,135 Employment 2020 (89 MW) 1,038 267 Employment 2030 (500 MW) 5,830 1,500 Total 11,277 2,902
Future Projections for Employment Generation in Hydropower Sector by (PPIB-Private Sector) The Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) is facilitating investors in establishing private hydropower power projects. It is expected that 16 hydropower projects in the private sector will be completed by 2020. PPIB also set the target of adding another 7,000 MW by year 2030.
Table 10.4 Future Projections for Employment Generation in Hydropower Sector by (PPIB-Private Sector) Construction Phase O & M Phase (3 person/MW) (11.66 person/MW) Employment 2020 (4171 MW) 48,634 12,513 Employment 2030 (7000 MW) 81,620 21,000 Total 130254 33513 Future Projections for Employment Generation in Hydropower Sector by (SHYDO) SHYDO has prepared a master plan, which consists of an identification study in seven regions of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa. The total potential of about 400 MW, comprising of 67 ‘small' hydropower sites, has been identified. These sites are suitable for regional supply to isolated communities in the mountainous areas of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa. The master plan covers the area of Chitral, Dir, Swat, Mansehra and Kohistan Districts. Apart from this SHYDO has also identified five big sites with a total capacity of 5,000 MW in the same areas. The organization has also completed feasibility studies for nine hydropower projects having a gross capacity 688 MW.
Table 10.5 Future Projections for Employment Generation in Hydropower Sector by SHYDO
Construction Phase O & M Phase (3 person/MW) (11.66 person/MW) Employment 2020 (1088 MW) 12,687 3264 Employment 2030 (5000 MW) 58,300 15000 Total 70,987 18264 Mini-hydropower Projects in Gilgit-Baltistan, AJK, KPK and Punjab PCRET, AEDB, the Agha Khan Foundations and other NGOs are actively working to install Mini/Micro hydro power plants in Chitral, AJK, FATA, KPK and in places in Gilgit Baltistan. Mini/Micro hydro power plants provide more employment opportunities in remote areas. Similarly, the Government of Punjab is also actively pursuing opportunities to tap hydropower potentials at various barrages and other canal head works. Based on PCRET experience, it is expected that more than 50,000 jobs opportunities would be created in this sub- sector by 2030.
Summary Estimated Employment in Hydropower in 2020 and 2030 Based on the expansion plans of all organizations, it is estimated that 56,287 MW of clean and environmentally friendly hydroelectricity would be added to the national grid by 2030. Mini/Micro hydropower projects would help in providing electricity in remote areas but without connecting to the national grid.
Table10.6 Totalemployment generation in hydropower by 2020 & 2030
Construction Phase O & M Phase (3 (11.66 person/MW) person/MW) Employment 2020 254,424 65,452 Employment 2030 158,448 101,610 Mini-hydropower 2020 30,000 20,000 Mini-hydropower 2030 40,000 30,000 Total 487,872 217,062 Other opportunities in O&M and the execution of hydropower jobs, hydropower consultancy, small turbine manufacturing, project management and other indirect jobs will also be created.
Wind Energy Currently 1,347 windmill pumps are being installed in the country as per MNRE estimate. The total employment in this subsector is estimated to be 270. GoP has already fixed the target of adding at least 5% of the total power generation from Green Energy/RE sources by the year 2030. It is expected that around 4,000 MW of wind power would added to the national grid by the year 2030.
Table10.7 Employment generation in wind energy
Direct Employment Indirect Total Employment inO&M Employment Employment Capacity Addition 4,000 4,000 1,284 10,275 9,247 MW
In addition to the above, there exist a few more technologies like Geothermal, Hydrogen Energy, Solar Thermal and Bio-methanation to name a few, which, although they have enormous growth potential, have yet to attain a significant market size. Hence, their impact on the current employment is currently not significant and hence not considered in this report. The author feels that separate, in-depth, sector-specific studies are needed to assess the impacts of these sectors on current and future employment.
59 Biogas
Pakistan’s potential for employment in biogas is 5.7 million as per AEDB estimates. 40% of this potential will be exploited by 2020, creating 2.2 million jobs and 30% will be exploited by 2030 creating 1.71 million jobs. Currently 8,200 biogas units are installed in the country. The majority of people employed in this sub-sector are semi-skilled and unskilled. The typical nature of such employment includes plumbing, burner service and maintenance. The number of employment opportunities can be increased by revising the curricula of Training Institutes and thereby increasing the available manpower .
Table10.8 employment generation in biogas
Total employment generation Year 2020 2.28 million Year 2030 1.71 million
Solar
Solar energy also has enormous employment opportunities in the country. The development of the least developed areas is a priority in the development agenda of the Government. Addressing the basic energy needs of the inhabitants of these areas is the main component of the integrated development process. 40,000 villages in the country are still without electricity, comprising over 3 million households that still rely on firewood, cow dung, coal, kerosene, petroleum, LPG and cell batteries to meet their energy needs. 7,876 of these un-electrified villages in Sindh and Balochistan have been identified as very remote and scattered and these cannot be connected to the national grid for another 15-20 years due to technical and economic constraints. Such villages also exist in Punjab, NWFP,FATA and AJK, indicating the huge potential of off-grid renewable energy interventions. Some courses are being proposed to overcome the technical constraints; these are given in Annex 5. The Akhtar’s Computers, a private company, is continuously adding 55MW annually on the panel and it is expected that solar energy will contribute 2,000 MW by 2020 and 5 000 MW by 2030 to the national grid.
Waste to energy Waste-to-energy (WTE) or energy-from-waste (EFW) is the process of creating energy in the form of electricity or heat from the incineration of waste sources. WTE is a form of energy recovery. Most WTE processes produce electricity directly through combustion, or produce a combustible fuel commodity, such as methane, methanol, ethanol or synthetic fuels. The thermal technologies used in this scenario are Gasification, Thermal depolymerization, pyrolysis: non-thermal technologies include aerobic digestion, fermentation and mechanical biological treatment. According to AEDB 500 MW will be generated through waste to energy by 2020 and 1,500 MW by 2030.
60 CHAPTER 11
CHAPTER 11
Case Study: Tarbela Dam-Multipurpose Hydroelectricity Project
The two main components of the Indus Basin Project (IBP) were the major storage reservoirs on the Jhelum (Mangla) and Indus Rivers (Tarbela) to mitigate the effect of diverting the three eastern rivers by India and to increase agricultural production in the IBIS. As a part of the implementation schedule of IBP,the Tarbela Dam Project was the second dam project. It was begun in 1968 and substantially completed by 1974 to store water from the Indus River for irrigation, flood control, and the generation of hydroelectric power. The dam is located in Haripur District, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, about 50 kilometers northwest of Islamabad. The 485 feet high dam has a surface area of approximately 250 square Km.
A subsidiary goal was to generate low-cost hydropower to meet the country’s requirements, so a hydroelectric power plant on the right side of the main dam houses 14 generators fed with water from outlet tunnels 1, 2, and 3. There are four 175 MW generators on tunnel 1, six 175 MW generators on tunnel 2, and four 432 MW generators on tunnel 3, for a total generating capacity of 3,478 MW. Power House of Tarbela Dam
On May 14, 1968, the world’s largest single contract for the construction of civil works at that time, the Tarbela Dam Project, was signed at a cost of Rs.2,965,493,217 between the Water and Power Development Authority of Pakistan and the Tarbela Dam Joint Venture. The venture comprised a group of three Italian and three French heavy construction contractors. The dam was completed with a total capital cost of Rs.16,380 million as per the original design. Four power units of 175 MW generating capacity each were to be installed on each of tunnels 1, 2 and 3 located on the right bank with the ultimate installed capacity of 2,100 MW. Of these, four units on tunnel 1 were commissioned in 1977. Later on, six units were installed instead of four on Tunnel 2. Units 5 to 8 on Tunnel 2 were commissioned in 1982, and units 9 and 10 in 1985. Based on studies, four power unit of 432 MW capacities each were installed on Tunnel 3.
Table11.1 Capacity of power houses on TarbelaDam Tunnels
Power House Capacity Planned Actual Tunnel 1 4 x 175=700 MW(1975) 4 x 175= 700 MW (1977-78) Tunnel 2 4 x 175=700 MW(1978-79) 6 x 175= 1050 MW (1982-85) Tunnel 3 4 x 175=700 MW(1980) 4 x 432= 1728 MW (1992-93) = 3478 =2100 MW MW
Thus, the total ultimate power potential of the project enhanced from 2,100 MW as opposed to the original plan of 3,478 MW. There are further plans to increase the power generation by 940 MW to bring the total Power Generation Capacity to more than 4,340 MW. The table below shows that the predicted economic benefits of irrigation and power are much greater than anticipated. The corresponding economic benefits had a ratio of 61:39. For the predicted financial benefits, the ratio for irrigation and power was 60:40. The corresponding financial benefits had a ratio of 51:49. The financial aspects include the inflationary trends especially on rising fuel costs.
63 Table11.2 Economic benefits of irrigation and power Period Releases Benefits Generation Million kWh@ Benefits(Rs. Total Benefits (Rs. Million) Rs. 0.30 per KWH Million (Rs. Million) 1975-2007 272.814 124,126 325,919 97,775 221,902
The Tarbela dam, which was constructed at a total cost of Rs. 16380 Million Rupees, had by 1st December 2007 returned more than 13.5 times than original cost in revenue. Social aspects of the Tarbela dam
The construction of Tarbela dam is a positive sign for the economic growth of the country by preventing flood through storing water, providing cheap source of electricity through hydropower, minimizing climate change calamities by reducing GHG emissions and generating revenue through increased tourism. Nevertheless, communities living in the upstream and downstream of the River Indus cannot be overlooked. The construction of the dam has had both positive and negative social impacts on the communities living in the dam’s vicinity.
Positive social impacts The Tarbela dam has led to an increase in the ground water table ensuring water availability for drinking and irrigation purposes; thus introducing a mechanized farming system and increasing the net crop yield of the country. The production of fisheries has also been increased. The availability of basic amenities and facilities like electricity, schools, dispensaries, water supply and sanitation became possible after construction of the dam. These facilities have improved the opportunities for higher education and other social activities, thus raising the living standard of local people. This urbanization has amplified the literacy rate and awareness among the people, eradicating the feudal lord system and improving the social status of ignored and disadvantaged groups. The areas enjoyed all basic and necessary facilities; this consequently raised the value of land and provided opportunities to live a better and more prosperous life for the indigenous people.
Negative social impacts The subject of resettlement and land acquisition is the most prevalent issue for local people regarding the construction of the dam. The process of resettlement is time consuming and led most of the families to become isolated and lose their identity. The urbanization of the respective area has abolished the agricultural land, livestock, forests and pastures. Large numbers of dwellers being dependent on farming and grazing lost their traditional occupations and either had to change their employment or became unemployed. Locally produced wheat, grains, fruits and vegetables, which were previously free of cost, now have to be purchased from the market. The social and moral costs, especially among the youngsters, are in addition to this. Moreover, there are certain facilities like schools and hospitals that are deprived of staff and necessary equipment. The construction of roads and the provision of other promised facilities has been delayed, creating problems for the local community.
Employment dimensions The construction of the dam and urbanization of the surrounding area has changed the employment structure of the indigenous communities. The inhabitants, who used to be grazers, farmers, or poultry farmers became fishermen, mechanized farmers and tourist guides. A large percentage of people were employed during the construction of the dam. Some of the knowledgeable people of the community are being recruited in hospitals and schools. However a small percentage of people have become unemployed due to lack of skills and adaptability to this new environment. This skill gap and problem of unemployment could be solved by arranging training courses for the local people and engaging them for operation and maintenance of the dams, thus raising their standard of living and minimizing the operation and maintenance cost of the dams.
64 CHAPTER 12
CHAPTER 12
Conclusions and Recommendations
Conclusions Dependency on non-renewable fuels for energy generation, particularly gas, which at one time was abundantly available but now is on a decline remains a problem. Gas reserves are fast depleting as gas is used for industry and for CNG. The price of electricity has remained very high in recent times owing to the energy mix still being dominated by fossil fuels. Hydroelectricity is valued at a low cost of Rs.0.39 as opposed to Rs. 15.74 and Rs. 11.29 of RFO and Diesel oil respectively. This is making Pakistani goods uncompetitive in the world market, in addition to augmenting the energy woes of load shedding and power shortages.
The real issues that the government must focus attention on are the critical problems of transmission and distribution losses; power thefts; circular debt; silting of dams; decrease in supply of natural gas and a worryingly high dependence on fossil fuels. If these problems are not adequately addressed, the power shortfall in a couple of years’ time might rise to a high of 10,000 MW. Ignoring cheap and clean hydropower and shifting policy toward thermal power plants caused a serious energy crisis in Pakistan. Using gas as the primary source for thermal power plants had resulted in a rapid decline in gas reservoirs and consequently load shedding of gas for industrial, transport and domestic consumers. This is the time when Pakistan should shift its policy from High Cost Generation to low cost hydroelectric power. Bad governance and institutional weakness has reduced the hydrothermal mix from 67 to 32% in 2010 but a huge cost.
The promotion of socioeconomic development for the purpose of poverty alleviation, whilst simultaneously halting environmental degradation, is one of the greatest challenges for Pakistan. This challenge is most conspicuous in the policy for water and energy, as both are essential elements of human life. Providing energy and water for sustainable development depends not only on supply choices, but also on how these choices are implemented. It requires the creation of a ‘level playing field’ for the consideration of all available green energy options and the need for global water governance, involving all stakeholders in a participatory decision-making process.
For the last couple of years, Pakistan has been facing a series of economic and energy crises. In this scenario, the immediate and long-term solutions are to start multipurpose hydropower projects. This would help overcome the challenge of sustaining positive economic growth, while also providing options for water and energy development. An examination of the Energy Procurement Cost (EPC) throws light on the fact that energy generated from hydropower sources can help mobilize the local economy, as the foreign component in terms of monetary investment is a meager 25% to 30%, while for wind projects the value stands at 80% of the foreign exchange. Therefore, a significant cost saving can be made in developing more hydropower projects in Pakistan.
The ever expanding circular debt, rising costs of electricity generation and rapidly depleting gas reserves have left only the option of exploiting green energy resources. It will indeed be a timely move towards hydropower, waste-to-energy and solar energy and biomass as back-up resources. These would pave the way for employment generation essentially in ‘green jobs’ for sustainable development. However, this will only be possible when labor skills are enhanced both in rural and urban areas and not just in hydropower but
67 other sources of green energy. It is stressed that training and research and development opportunities in solar and wind technologies at Universities and vocational institutes would help achieve this objective.
The Need for Action at National Level (MOWP and NEPRA) One of the most significant challenges in addressing global climate change is the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that result from the use of coal for electricity generation. This currently accounts for 41% of global electricity generation. Nevertheless, in Pakistan, the share of coal in electricity generation as on 30th June 2010 was only 11 kWh, which is only 0.1% of the total energy mix. At the same time, Pakistan has had to revisit its dependency on gas and oil based electricity generation, which constitutes 68.8% of the total energy mix. Thus, transition from high to low-carbon energy options would not significantly affect the labor force in the coal industry.
Now, when the country is already paying a heavy cost for this reliance, it is imperative that there be an immediate transition from furnace oil to green energy sources. Most of the employees of oil-based power plants are highly skilled and can switch to working with technologies of hydropower and other green energy sources.
The green energy sources available in Pakistan are primarily hydro, biomass, wind, solar, geothermal, Waste to Energy (WTE) and bio-fuels. They must be exploited to curb carbon dioxide emissions and to decrease the cost of electricity generation which has increased by 94% over the last two years. As explained earlier, the energy sources most viable in Sindh are predominantly hydro, biomass and wind. In comparison to the cost of electricity generated from furnace oil, almost 38% of the total energy cost is a need to shift to green energy.
In order to achieve this objective, a new power policy with a work plan should be formulated at the earliest. GOP had established NEPRA with the objective of regulating the power sector and private companies (IPPs). These can play an important role in terms of investment and green job creation. In the RE Policy 2006, incentives were offered for IPPs but regulations for job security and skill enhancement were necessitated to be incorporated while awarding licenses. These stipulations would have helped tariff determination as fixed operations and maintenance costs are important factors in addition to skill shortage. This is particularly true for wind energy, as shown in Table 12.1. The costs are abnormally high and this is mainly due to the non- availability of a skilled workforce in the wind energy sector.
Table12.1 Comparison between Wind Energy and Hydropower Costs Capital Cost per Tariff at Grid Fixed O&M Fixed O& M MW Million ($) (Rs)kWh Foreign (Rs)/kWh Local Wind Energy1 3.17 16.5532 0.9791 0.4196 Hydropower2 1.5 3 0.000144 0.000217
The GOP incentives for alternative energy are already available, but they need to be applied with much greater urgency if large-scale green employment is to become a reality.
Urgency for a Green Investment Strategy in Pakistan In the wake of the severe energy crisis, the Ministry of Water & Power has implemented a Rental Power Policy. As per policy, MOWP enacted an agreement with four companies for the generation of 580 MW from oil-gas based thermal power stations for a period of sixty months. GOP has made payments of US $1.2 billion and US$ 136 million as down payments. The cost per unit of electricity is more than Rs. 18 /unit. The agreements
68 were made in August 2007, but only one plant has so far become operational.
In the same period, the monetary expenditure incurred on thermal plants could have been made on hydro or wind plants, which are more sustainable. Now, small and medium size projects can be built in 24 to 30 months. In India, the Malana hydroelectric power has a capacity of 108 MW project. It is situated in Himachal Pradesh and was constructed within 30 months against its five-year schedule, and at almost 50 per cent less cost than the approved budget. It is noteworthy that construction took place at a high altitude in the most difficult mountainous terrain.
Climate change is increasingly being perceived as a looming threat to the survival of mankind. It is the need of the hour to make investments in the alternative energy sector. Without adequate investment, the number of new green jobs would be substantially limited. Instead of funding rental power projects, it would be a much better option to invest in alternative energy for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. This would help expand the skill base and provide a platform for the much needed training of human capital that exists in the country.
A comprehensive dialogue between Government actors (including the Ministries of Finance, WAPDA, MOWP Environment, Labor, and Trade) and their employees would help chalk out strategies in generating employment in the green energy sector. This would be a timely undertaking given climate change impacts that Pakistan has been reeling under in the past few years.
Table12.2 Details on Rental Power Projects
Capacity (MW) Rental Period (Month) Contract Price USD Down Payment USD RFO Fired Gojra Faisalabad 200 60 423,211,862 29,624,830 RFO Fired MW ICI LESCO 58 60 111,816,564 7,827,159 Abbas Steel Group Rental Power Project 100 60 172,291,681 24,120,835 Dadu Grid Station, Sindh Karkey–II (Extension) Rental Power 222 60 534,846,618 74,878,526 Project at Korangi Karachi 580 1,242,166,725 136,451,350
Green R&D and TechnologyTransfer The continued development of green technologies is critical to the future of green jobs. The establishment of innovative public-private partnerships, which would make the process of importing green technology possible, can facilitate this. This requires a more dynamic dialogue and collaboration between GOP, the business community, workers and local communities in the case of solar and biomass energies.
Role of Trade Unions in Promoting Green Jobs in Pakistan WAPDA’s Hydro Electric Central Labor Union is one of the largest and most vibrant labor unions in Pakistan. The cost of hydroelectricity generation is only Rs. 0.37 per kWH, which is by far the cheapest and most reliable from of green energy in Pakistan. The role of the WAPDA Hydro Electric Central Labor Union cannot be ignored when discussing the hydropower success stories of Pakistan, therefore the role of trade unions is critical to the success of the green jobs strategy. During the transition phase entailing the formulation of a national level strategy, it must be ensured that the participation of the WAPDA Hydro Electric Central Labor
69 Union is encouraged. This is because it is the only trade union in Pakistan’s green energy sector and it would help tremendously in the creation of new green jobs. The Union has had immense experience in the training and education of workers. This would serve to expedite change, help in enhancing the quality of new and reconfigured jobs and promote greener workplaces. The Union has the capacity to help create green jobs, thereby facilitating a faster transition from a predominantly oil-gas based power generation set-up to low- carbon technologies.
It is clear that despite the gaps in current green jobs data, we are presently on the verge of an exciting “green” transformation of our economy. The key is to identify how we can make this transformation happen — as quickly and as efficiently as possible.
Future Scenarios of Green Energy in Pakistan Recently, in December 2010, under a public-private partnership, a Memorandum of Under Standing worth $6.5 billion was signed between the Alternative Energy Development Board of Pakistan and the China International Water and Electric Corporation to produce wind energy through 1,000 MW Projects. A 200 MW solar power project would be set up in Punjab and another of 100 MW in Sindh. This development would boost green jobs in Pakistan.
For the near future, there is no concrete plan to overcome the prevailing energy crisis. The scenario demonstrates that Solar Home Systems as power backup systems have market potential and will continue until at least 2013. Similarly, in rural areas, the use of biogas for the purposes of heating and generation of electricity will sharply rise.
Table12.3 Estimated resources needed and time line for the implementation of a realistic strategy to sustain the creation of green jobs under the national RE policies
Name of IPP Capacity (MW) Date of Granting License Tariff in Rs./kWh Date of Commissioning 1 Green Power Pvt Ltd 49.5 27-Apr-2007 8.845272 Dec-08 2 Dawood Power Ltd 49.5 6-Dec-2007 10.2082 Oct-08 3 Zorlu Enerji Pakistan Ltd 49.5 23-May-2007 10.4109 Jan-08 4 Arabian Sea Wind 49.5 12-May-2007 10.2512 Jan-08 Energy Pvt Ltd 6 Milergo Pakistan limited 250 15-May-2007 6.96531 Jan-08
The Ministry of Water and Power has announced in the Renewable Energy Policy 2006 (evidently the country’s first) various incentives for IPPs; these include guarantees to purchase electricity, wind variation risk, zero sales tax and no import duty. Twenty-oneIPPs had obtained a Letter Of Intent (LOI), which presented a potential cumulative wind power generation of 1,250 MW. However, only fourteen IPPs had completed the feasibility studies, while NEPRA had issued power generation licenses to five companies in 2007, as shown in the Tablebelow:
One reason for the delay is that the bureaucratic hurdles faced by the IPPs lie primarily in the dearth of skilled labor in the wind energy sector. Skilled labor, especially electricians and boiler operators of thermal power plants, can be updated on knowledge of wind turbine installation and repair maintenance with a two-week training program. Similarly, local electricians and gas and fuel operators who work in thermal power plants
70 can enhance their skills in the installation of solar panels. Local plumbers also need training in repair and installation of solar geysers.
Table12.4 Skills and Occupations
Occupation(s) Core Training Up-skilling New Occupation Time Cost for Training 30 Period Persons (Rs) Boiler/plant Upper Assembly, installation of Wind turbine 30 Days 500,000 operator / secondary parts, use of tools operator electrician qualify-cations and vocational training Electrician Initial Technical training, Solar energy 10 Days 250,000 and plant vocational knowledge of entrepreneur / operator training administrative Installations procedures, entrepren- project designer eurial skills Plumber Initial Assembly, installation of Solar Geysers 10 Days 300,000 vocational parts, training Policy Recommendations Skills gaps and shortages have emerged as a binding constraint and challenge in Pakistan. To bridge the gap there is a need to incorporate RE technologies in the training curriculum of Regional Training Centers (RTCs), which would be established by WAPDA and would work under all DESCOs of PEPCOs in their respective headquarters. A Technical Services Group (TSG) mainly provides technical training, assistance and services to the field operations in power stations. TSG provides training to various maintenance crews working in thermal power plants. Incorporating trainings on solar, wind and emerging technologies in hydropower would help to enhance their skills in new green technologies.
To develop the capacity of individuals in green technologies, the ILO may help the Skill Development Council (SDC) in Islamabad, set by the Ministry of Labor, Manpower & Overseas Pakistanis as a Public-Private Partnership. This initiative has already created success stories and the Employers’ Federation of Pakistan and private sector. businessmen are actively participating in this programs. However, the SDC has yet to start a training program on green energy technologies.
The GOP has to prepare a training skills development program to implement and help the private sector (IPPs) in providing a workforce to implement and start announced projects in wind energy.
Addressing Skill Gaps - A Top Priority The right skills for green jobs in renewable energy are the basic requirement to make the transition to a greener economy. In Pakistan skills gaps are one of the bottlenecks in the energy sector. The adoption and dissemination of clean technologies requires skills in technology application, adaptation and maintenance. Skills are also crucial for economies and businesses, workers and entrepreneurs, to allow them to rapidly adapt to changes as a consequence of environmental policies or climate change. The GOP in 2006 had announced a policy for the development of renewable energy for power generation. In that policy it was announced that RET skills would be developed: however, there is no clear roadmap or framework laid down to achieve this vital objective. Except for the recent announcement by the Government of Punjab about
71 capacity development for the Punjab Power Development Company Ltd. (PPDCL) in RET to build institutional capacities and technical capabilities, no other precedent exists. This capacity building program is planned for when the GOP has received a loan from the Asian Development Bank in December-2010, under the Renewable Energy Development Sector Investment Program (REDSIP). The Labor Policy, announced in 2010, has four components, of which Skill Development and Employment is one part, yet again there is no implementation mechanism. This gap in skill development has been reflected in the EPC cost of wind projects. The Table below shows the break-up cost of a 50 MW wind project being developed by FFC. The tariff determined by NEPRA is based on all components of EPC and it could have been reduced if local labor and engineers had sufficient skills in wind energy technologies.
Table12.5 break-up cost of 50 MW wind project by FFC Component Costs Project Cost USD (Million) % Energy Equipment 70.47 55.37% Freight and Insurance 14.919 11.72% Civil Works 16.28 12.79% Electrical Works 13.665 10.74% Project Management and Supervision 9.978 07.84% Other EPC costs 1.952 01.53% EPC Costs 127.264 100.00%
Need for Green Job Act Pakistan is currently is facing multiple problems on different fronts from the energy crisis: these have created massive unemployment. As discussed in earlier chapters, to overcome the energy crisis, adaptation of cheap and green energy is only choice. Tapping cheap and clean energy is the only solution to creating high trajectory economic growth and meeting the various challenges of climate change including flooding. To achieve this target the GOP needs to take immediate steps including establishing funds and the necessary legislation to establish a national agenda including job-training programs for unemployed labor and engineers to train people so that the need for energy can be meet from renewable energy.
Recommendations for Education and Training The education and training system has in many ways reacted to the demand for green skills and has strategically integrated the required qualifications in the training regulations. The approach is integrative and specialization occurs in only a few cases. The education and training system has to secure a supply of skilled workers and simultaneously to avoid skills shortages by adapting workforce skills. Due to the rapid growth of environmental industries, skills shortages have emerged in recent years, especially for engineers. Moreover, fewer school graduates are applying for apprenticeships. While such shortages can hardly be avoided in boom periods, education and training policies have to follow a medium or long-term path. It will therefore be important to find the right balance between short-term adjustments and long-term accumulation of human capital in this sector. The future of environmental industries therefore has to be analyzed in the form of skills scenarios, which are able to create the link between economic development and human resources. German public authorities in particular have been able to counteract skills shortages by better integrating young people from migrant backgrounds. This has been on the agenda of labor supply policies for many years. In addition, the number of school dropouts has to be reduced to increase the overall trained workforce. So- called ‘production schools’ have been established, e.g. in Hamburg, which aim to solve this problem. Following the Danish model, the participants gain practical knowledge in production and services and heighten their chances of success in the labor market. Such initiatives need to be expanded. Modular
72 vocational training is another tool to address the problems of disadvantaged youth. The ideas are there; now it is time for training institutions to move. In general, updating initial training regulations must become more flexible. This could help to adjust initial training more rapidly to the needs of a greening economy.
The collaboration between PEC, Ministry of Labor and Manpower and MOWP could be improved. The PEC and HEC are mainly responsible for the education and training system. The HEC can only offer learning and teaching materials, which includes a lot of expert knowledge. The use of these materials should be guaranteed with better cooperation with PEC. The non-existence of social partnerships within the renewable energy sector has decelerated the adaptation of training systems in this sector. A formation of Employers’ Associations would improve the dialogue between this sector and the education and training system and further adaptation could be accelerated.
Continuing Vocational Training The adaptation of skills to greening can be achieved to a substantial degree by the continuing vocational training system at Polytechnic Institute and other development skills centers thoughout the country. Against this background it is important to develop this system further and to offer a structured and sustainable model for life-long learning in Pakistan. Nowadays the continuing vocational training is influenced by company needs, but these tend to focus on their own demands. The continuing training systems needs to be publicly determined and a balance between initial training and continuing vocational training needs to be promoted. It is recommended to offer considerably more opportunities for further specialization due to selection possibilities in the last year of training or due to continuing vocational training that builds on the initial vocational training, such as further certificates (e.g. for foremen and technicians). Moreover, company initiatives have to be promoted to develop extra modules, which can be integrated into existing training programs. This would have the advantage of modules being tested practically and if the need for an adaptation of skills increases, the module could be included in the training regulation. Moreover, pilot projects need to be developed (also in initial vocational training) to explore efficient methods of adapting to rapidly changing technologies. The projects should be divided up and focused on specializations in regions, sectors and technologies. Additionally, continuing vocational training could be extended by the supply of internships. Employees could acquire experience in other companies, work tasks or knowledge areas.
University Studies Within University studies also, an integrative approach of environmental aspects is favored. Wide knowledge offers graduates better opportunities in the labor market. Chances are given within the Bachelor’s and Master’s degree system. Basic technical knowledge should be included in the Bachelor’s courses and specialization should be part of the Master’s courses. Moreover, environmental protection should not be seen as additional knowledge, which is imparted in additional courses. Integration in all relevant curricula is needed, meaning that University studies have to integrate appropriate environmental aspects. This would imply a revision of university curricula. Moreover, a concentration of university studies that focus on environmental protection with expert knowledge would increase the quality of the courses.
73 74 ANNEXURE
Annex 1
Hydro power projects by WAPDA
a) Hydro power projects under Construction
Hydro power projects under construction Installed Generation cost Project Energy(GWh) capacity(MW) Rs/KWh
Allai Khwar 121 463 4.85 Duber Khwar 130 595 5.17 Jinnah 96 688 3.51 Neelum Jhelum 969 5,150 4.8 Golen Gol 106 436 5.05 Gomal Zam 17.4 91 7.45
b) Hydro power projects under Implementation
Hydro power projects under Implementation Installed S.No Name of Project Capacity(MW) Progress/ Completion
1 Mangla Dam Raising, AJK Additional 644 GWh Substantially completed
2 Gomal Zam Dam FATA 17.4 60% Oct. 2011
3 Satpara Dam, Gilgit Baltistan 17.36 95% Oct. 2011
4 Duber Khwar Kohistan, KPK 130 72% Dec. 2012
5 Allai Khwar – Battagram, KPK 121 71% Feb. 2012
6 Jinnah HPP, Jinnah Barrage 96 81% Dec. 2012 7 Neelun Jhelum Neelum, AJK 969 19% Oct. 2015
77 c) Hydro power projects to be undertaken in the next five years
Hydro power projects to be undertaken in next five years Storage(MA Estimated Earliest S.No Project River Capacity (MW) F) Cost (US$ Project Status DIAMER BASHA- 1 gilgit Baldistan Indus 4500 8.1 11178 2011 Ready for Construction KURRAM TANGI – 2 FATA/KPK Kurram 84 1.2 700 2011 Ready for Construction. TARBELA 4 TH EXT. Detailed Engineering and Design is under 3 –KPK Indus 1350 - 826 2011 process. Feasibility Completed. RFP under issue for 4 MUNDA –FATA/KPK Swat 740 1.3 1401 2012 Detailed Engineering and Design. Feasibility Study, Detailed Engineering & Design 5 KOHALA –AJK Jhelum 1100 RoR 2212 2012 completed. LOI issued by PPIB. Feasibility Study completed. Detailed BUNJI –Gilgit Engineering & Design completed and under 6 Baldistan Indus 7100 RoR 6800 2012 review by WAPDA experts. Feasibility Study completed. Selection of Consultants for Detailed Engineering & Design 7 DASU–KPK Indus 4320 1.15 6000 2014 is under process.
Others (Bara, Tank Zam Matiltan & Palas Valley etc.) – 2011- 8 KPK/GB/AJK 1500 RoR 2015 Under Study. Patan, Shyok, Akhori – 9 KPK/Punjabcompleted Indus before 2030 3920 12 2015 Under Study. Total ~ 24,614 23.75 d) Feasibility design stage to be
Sr. Installed Capacity Energy Tentative Generation Project No. (MW) (GWh) Cost Rs/kWh
1 Kohala 1,100 4,800 4.06
2 Dasu 4,320 21,300 2.91
3 Bunji 7,100 24,088 3.63
4 Lower Palas Valley 665 2,590 4.37
5 Lower Spat Gah 496 2,007 5.17
6 Keyal Khwar 122 426 3.89
7 Phandar 80 350 2.15
8 Basho 28 135 2.65
78 Annex 2
Hydro power capacity installed by 2030
Project Capacity(MW) Allai Khwar 121 Basho 28 Bunji, Gilgit Baldistan 7100 DASU-KPK 4320 DIAMER BASHA –Gilgit Baltistan 4500 DUBER KHWAR Kohistan, KPK 130 Golen Gol 106 GOMAL ZAM DAM FATA 17.4 Harpo 33 JINNAH HPP Jinnah Barrage 96 Keyal Khwar 122 KOHALA – AJK 1100 KURRAM TANGI – FATA/KPK 84 Lawi 70 Lower Palas Valley 665 Lower Spat Gah 496 MANGLA DAM RAISING Mirpur, AJK 180 MUNDA – FATA/KPK 740 Neelum Jhelum 969 Others (Bara, Tank Zam 1500 Patan, Shyok, Akhori – KPK/Punjab 3920 Phandar 80 SATPARA DAM Gilgit Baltistan 17.36 TARBELA 4TH EXT. – KPK 1350 Total 27,744.76
79 Annex 3
Private Sector a) KPK
Projects in operation by SHYDO S.No Project name Location Operated by Capacity(MW) 1 Malakand III Swat Canal SHYDO 81 2 Reshun Chitral SHYDO 2.8 3 Ashuran Swat Canal SHYDO 0.4 4 Thall Dir SHYDO 0.4 5 Shishi Lower chitral SHYDO 0.3 6 Karora Shangla SHYDO 0.2 7 Kalam Swat SHYDO 0.2 8 Keyal Kohistan SHYDO 0.2 9 Kaghan Mansehra SHYDO 0.2 10 Duber Kohistan SHYDO 0.15 11 Jalkot Kohistan SHYDO 0.15 12 Garam Chashma Chitral SHYDO 0.1 13 Damori Shangla SHYDO 0.1 Total 86
Projects in operation by IPPs S.No Project name Location Operated by Capacity (MW) Machai Canal RD Blue star 1 Machai 52+775 Energy(Pvt)Ltd 1
Projects under implementation by SHYDO
S.No Project name Location Dealing entity Capacity(MW) Mansehra/Manur Nullah 1 Mahandri SHYDO 13.2 Mansehra/Barniali Katha 2 Tangar SHYDO 12.54 Machai Canal RD 52+775 3 Machai SHYDO 2.5
Total 28
80 Projects under implementation by PPIB Dealing Capacity S.No Name of project Location Entity (MW) 1 Suki Kinari Mansehra/Kunhar River PPIB 840 2 Kaigah Kohistan/Kandiah/Indus river PPIB 548 3 Asrit-Kedam Swat/Swat River PPIB 215 4 Kalam-Asrit Swat/Swat River PPIB 197 5 Madian Swat/Swat River PPIB 157 Shushghai- 6 Zhendoli Chitral/Tirich Gol PPIB 144 7 Gabral Kalam Swat/Ganral Khwar/Swat River PPIB 137 8 Shogo-Sin Chitral/Lutkho River PPIB 132 Total 2370
b) Punjab Projects under implementation by PPB Dealing S.No Name of project Location entity Capacity (MW) 1 Karot HPP River Jhelum, Near Kahota PPIB 720
Projects under implementation by PPDB Dealing Capacity S.No Project name Location Entity (MW) 1 Taunsa-HPP Taunsa bridge at Indus river PPDB 120 2 C.J. Link Canal Canal Tail Fall PPDB 44.3 3 Marala River Chenab PPDB 20 4 Rasul River Jhelum PPDB 20 5 Punjnad River Chenab PPDB 15 6 B.S.Link-1 Canal RD 106+250 PPDB 11 7 T.P.LinkCanal RD182+000 PPDB 10 8 B.S.Link-1 (Tail) RD 266+000 PPDB 9 9 L.B.D.C RD 329+0582RD340+850 PPDB 4.8 10 Abbasia canal RD0+000 PPDB 4.7 11 S.M.B Link RD 0+014 PPDB 4.48 12 TP Link Canal RD 60+000 PPDB 4.23 13 TP Link Canal RD 131+500 PPDB 4.04 14 L.B.D.C RD 461+550 PPDB 3.3 15 Gujrat Branch Canal RD 0+000 to RD2+500 PPDB 320 16 B.R.B.D.Link Canal RD 509+712 PPDB 3.14 17 Thal Canal RD 0+000 to RD68+500 PPDB 3.13 18 B.R.B.D.Link Canal RD 433+958 to RD481+760 PPDB 2.75 19 Muzaffragarh Canal RD127+300 toRD 147+500 PPDB 2.64
81 20 Upper Gorgera RD 214+000 toRD219+000 PPDB 2.57 21 L.B.D.C RD 281+454 PPDB 2.43 22 L.B.D.C RD589+000 to RD640+200 PPDB 2.4 23 Lower Chenab Canal RD 140+050 to RD 182+950 PPDB 2.4 24 Pakpatan RD 304+344 to RD 354+172 PPDB 218 25 B.R.B.D Link Canal RD 0+000 PPDB 2 26 Jhang Branch RD 68+830 PPDB 1.8 27 Lower Jhelum Canal RD 024+320 PPDB 1 28 Jhang Br.Canal RD 216+000 to RD 306+000 PPDB 1 Koranga Fazaal Shah 29 Feeder RD 6+000 PPDB 0.6 30 8-R Distributory RD 6+000 PPDB 0.4 Total 308
a) AJK
Projects under implementation by PPIB Dealing Capacity S.No name of project location entity (MW) 1 Kohala Muzzafarabad PPIB 110 2 Azad Pattan Poonch/Rawalpindi PPIB 650 3 Mahl Bagh/Rawalpindi PPIB 590 4 Patrind Muzzafarabad PPIB 147 5 Chakoti Hattian Kotli PPIB 139 6 Rajdhani Kotli PPIB 132 7 Sehra Kotli PPIB 130 8 Gulpur Kotli PPIB 100 9 Kotli Kotli PPIB 100 10 New Bong Escape Mirpiu PPIB 84 Total 3172
Projects under implementation by HEB-AJK S.No Name of project Location Dealing Entity Capacity(MW) 1 Rara Muzaffarabad HEB/AJK 35 2 Harriyola Zamanabad Muzaffarabad HEB/AJK 12 3 Mandar Butdara Nellum HEB/AJK 10.2.0 4 Jagran-IV Mirpur HEB/AJK 8 5 Sankya Muzaffarabad HEB/AJK 7 6 Hotreri Muzaffarabad HEB/AJK 5.4 7 Kathai-II Muzaffarabad HEB/AJK 5 8 Riali-II Muzaffarabad HEB/AJK 4.9 9 Dakhari Kotli HEB/AJK 2.2 10 Riali-I Muzaffarabad HEB/AJK 1.6 11 Guin Nala Bagh HEB/AJK 0.25 Total 92
82 Annex 4
Universities recognized by Pakistan Council of Engineering
Province List of Universities Air University, Islamabad Bahria Institute of Management & Computer Sciences, Islamabad Campus (Bahria University, Islamabad) COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT),IslamabadCampus (COMSATS Institute Of Information Technology (CIIT), Islamabad) Institute of Space Technology (IST) Islamabd International Islamic University, Islamabad. Islamabad Islamic International Engineering College, Islamabad (Riphah International University, Islamabad) Muhammad Ali Jinnah University, Islamabad Campus (Muhammad Ali Jinnah University, Karachi) National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences, Islamabad. NUST Institute of Information Technology (NIIT), Rawalpindi (NUST Islamabad) Centre of Advanced Study in Engineering (CASE, Islamabad (UET, Taxila) COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT), Lahore Campus (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT), Islamabad) COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Wah Campus (COMSATS Institute Of Information Technology (CIIT), Islamabad). College of Agriculture, Multan (Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan) College of Electrical & Mechanical Engineering, Rawalpindi Campus (National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad)
Institute of Quality and Technology Management, Lahore (The University of Punjab, Lahore) Foundation University, Rawalpindi Campus (Foundation University Islamabad) Institute of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Lahore (University of the Punjab, Lahore) (Quaid-e- Azam Campus) Military College of Signals, Rawalpindi Campus (National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad) National Textile University, Faisalabad (Former National College of Textile Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore) Punjab National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences, Islamabad (Lahore Campus) NFC, Institute of Engineering & Fertilizer Research, Faisalabad (University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore) NFC Institute of Engineeringand Technological Training, Multan (BahauddinZakariya University Multan) The University of Lahore
University College of Engineering and Technology, Multan (Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan) University College of Textile Engineering (BZU, Multan) University College of Engineering and Technology, Bahawalpur (The Islamia University of Bahawalpur) University of Agriculture, Faisalabad University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila Campus (University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila. University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore. University of Central Punjab, Lahore.
83 CECOS University of Information Technology and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar College of Aeronautical Engineering, Risalpur Campus (National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad) COMSATS Institute of Information Technology Abbottabad Campus (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad) Gandhara Institute of Science & Technology, PGS Engineering College (NWFP University of Engineering & Technology, Peshawar) Ghulam Ishaque Khan Institute of Engineering Sciences and Technology, Topi - Swabi Military College of Engineering, Risalpur Campus (National University of Sciences and Technology, KPK Islamabad)
National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences, Islamabad (Peshawar Campus) NWFP University of Engineering & Technology, Peshawar Campus (NWFP University of Engineering & Technology, Peshawar) N.W.F.P. University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar (Mardan Campus) N.W.F.P. University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar (Bannu Campus)
Peshawar College of Engineering, Peshawar (NWFP University of Engineering & Technology, Peshawar) Bahria Institute of Management & Computer Sciences Karachi Campus (Bahria Institute of Management & Computer Sciences, Islamabad) Dawood College of Engineering and Technology, Karachi Campus (Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro) Hamdard Institute of Information Technology (HIIT) Karachi (Hamdard University, Karachi) Iqra University, Karachi Campus (Iqra University, Karachi) Institute of Industrial Electronics Engineering (PCSIR), Karachi (NED-University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi) Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro Sindh National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences, Islamabad (Karachi Campus) NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi Pakistan Navy Engineering College, Karachi Campus (National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad) Pakistan Air Force-Karachi Institute of Economics & Technology (PAF-KIET), Karachi Plastics Technology Centre, Karachi (Hamdard University, Karachi). Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science & Technology, Nawabshah. Sir Syed University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi. Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam. Usman Institute of Technology, Karachi (Hamdard University, Karachi). Balochistan University of Engineering & Technology, Khuzdar. Balochistan Balochistan University of Information Technology and ManagementSciences, Quetta (Takatoo Campus). Ali Ahmed Shah-University College of Engineering & Technology, Mirpur Campus (The AJK University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Muzaffarabad.
84 Annex 5
Renewable energy courses being proposed
Courses for Renewable Courses generating skilled Course contents Gender energy sources duration personnel Energy fundamentals, home energy Home energy use,auditing your home energy, improving Two months F/M fundamentals home energy efficiency and use of alternative energy(Solar energy) Overview of Pakistan's energy An introductory situation,What is solar energy,solar guide to solar Two months F/M Solar energy heating,solar electric(Photovoltic energy cell,installation and value of solar power. fundamentals of electricity,PV installation, Essential solar PV Grid-tied PV system, Off-Grid PV systems, designs & PV market ,applications & advantages, PV Six months M Installation training modules, Factors affecting PV performance and maintenace of PV systems. Basic principles in solar technology, types of solar system available in solar Solar energy industry,principles of solar cooker, Twelve M Technicians domestic & industrial water heater,solar months dyer, solar distillation,solar volatic lightening system and solar water pumping Assessment of wind energy potential in Pakistan, identification of most suitable and Wind resource exploitable areas, introduction to the Two months F/M assessment process of wind machines installation in Pakistan. Introduction of wind machines, its An introduction to principles, machine design and load wind machine analysis aspects, process of genertion of Two months F/M Wind energy technologies electricity from wind machines and its various electric power aspects Basics of Wind basic composition and operating principles machine Three months F/M of wind machines. aerodynamics
Electrical Fundamental electronic principles on fundamentals and advanced electronic topics andwind Six months F/M wind turbine turbines machinery electronic systems
85 operation and maintenance of wind wind machine machines, factors controlling the efficiency Six months M control of the wind machines
economic analysis economic aspect of wind machine of wind energy installation, tarrifs and capital cost of wind Two months F/M installation mills and several other economic aspects.
F/M Digester principles, shape and performance,dry and wet Introduction to fermentation,reliable substarte feed in Two months F/M biogas technology systems,pre storage and pre treatment technlology
Fundamentals of Anaerobic digestion process,environmental biological process prameters, engineering parameters and Six months F/M in bio gas plants inhibition factors affecting biogas plants
Bio gas Design, calculation design and suitability,corrosoion and and feasibility operation conditions and criteria for biogas Six months F/M studies plant development in Pakistan and assessment of suitable areas in Pakistan Biogas plant operation and Parameters affecting operation and Six months maintenance maintenance and record keeping M Biogas generation process,types of biogas plants, testing and maintenance of plants, Biogas technicians One year M biogas treatment (Gas cleaning and desulpherization).
86 Annex 6
Estimation of Employment in Wind Energy Sub-sector
The approximate number of people in a few top wind energy companies, obtained through visits and interactions, is shown below:
Company Employment Company A 50 Company B 50 Company C 50
* Tensmall wind companies each employing 150-200 people (175 x 10 = 1,750) ! Totaldirect employment in wind energy sector = 150 ! Every direct job in wind energy creates approximates two indirect jobs (Note: Feedback from the wind industry) ie. 150 x 2 = 300 jobs ! Indirect Employment through Blade, gear box, bearing and motor manufacturers, suppliers ! of grid connectivity electrical equipment, etc., ! TotalEmployment = Direct + Indirect = 150+300 = 450
Type of employment Employment Functional area of Percentage of people operation employed Direct 150 Manufacturing 20 O&M 25 Project development 30 Marketing 25 Indirect 300 100 * These breakups are only indicative and may vary from company to company
87 Annex 7
Estimation of Employment in Solar PV On-grid Sub-sector
! Typicalsize of each power plant=1to3MW ! Number of direct employment in each unit = 3 people * ! Number of indirect employment in each unit = 3 people * ! Indirect Employment: Grid connectivity electrical equipment manufacturers, DC to AC ! Converters, cables, etc., ! Totalemployment / unit = Direct + Indirect =3+3=6 ! Totalinstalled on-grid power = 6 MW (in 3 units) ! Current employment = 6 people / unit x 3 units = 18 (say 20)
Based on information obtained from analyzing various stores.
88 Annex 8 a: Estimation of Employment in Solar PV Off-grid Sub-sector
Current capacity for solar panel manufacturing (export market) = 800 MW Direct employment / MW of solar panels produced = 30 (Based on industry survey) Indirect employment / MW = 60 (Based on survey ) Indirect Employment through dealers, marketing staff of dealers, lantern manufacturers, solar home lighting kits, battery manufacturers, lamp manufacturers, etc., ! Totalemployment / MW = Direct + Indirect = 30 + 60 = 90 ! Manufacturing in 2009 in the country = 800 MW (Source: PECRET) ! Number of people employed = 90 x 800 = 72,000 ! Approximate break up across different functional areas (Based on industry survey) Functional Area of Percentage of Type of Employment Employment Operation People Employed Direct 24,000 Manufacturing 20 O&M 10 Project development 20 Marketing 40 others 10 Indirect 48,000 Total 72,000 100 b: Estimation of Employment in Hydro Sub-sector
Case Study: Malakand-III Total capacity: 81 MW Direct employment to date: 946 Indirect employment: 1,890 Total employment:2,836
! Direct employment = 946/82= 11* ! Indirect employment = 1890/82=23* ! Totalemployment / MW = 23+11=34 (Source: From SHYDO& Planning Commission of Pakistan) Note: Employment in the manufacturing of small hydro turbines, alternators, etc., is not considered because the conventional industry can cover the capacity increase. * Feedback from the SHYDO, HEB-AJK, WAPDA and PCRET
89 90
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