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Changes to Freedom of Movement After Brexit - the Implications for Wales

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Changes to Freedom of Movement After Brexit - the Implications for Wales National Assembly for Wales External Affairs and Additional Legislation Committee Changes to freedom of movement after Brexit - the implications for Wales November 2019 www.assembly.wales The National Assembly for Wales is the democratically elected body that represents the interests of Wales and its people, makes laws for Wales, agrees Welsh taxes and holds the Welsh Government to account. An electronic copy of this document can be found on the National Assembly website: www.assembly.wales/SeneddEAAL Copies of this document can also be obtained in accessible formats including Braille, large print, audio or hard copy from: External Affairs and Additional Legislation Committee National Assembly for Wales Cardiff Bay CF99 1NA Tel: 0300 200 6565 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @SeneddEAAL © National Assembly for Wales Commission Copyright 2019 The text of this document may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium providing that it is reproduced accurately and not used in a misleading or derogatory context. The material must be acknowledged as copyright of the National Assembly for Wales Commission and the title of the document specified. National Assembly for Wales External Affairs and Additional Legislation Committee Changes to freedom of movement after Brexit - the implications for Wales November 2019 www.assembly.wales About the Committee The Committee was established on 28 June 2016. its remit was agreed on 15 Septemer 2016 and can be found at: www.assembly.wales/SeneddEAAL Committee Chair: David Rees AM Welsh Labour Current Committee membership: Alun Davies AM Huw Irranca-Davies AM Welsh Labour Welsh Labour Delyth Jewell AM Mandy Jones AM Plaid Cymru Brexit Party David Melding AM Welsh Conservatives The following Members were also members of the Committee during this inquiry. Mark Reckless AM Joyce Watson AM Brexit Party Welsh Labour Changes to freedom of movement after Brexit - the implications for Wales Contents Chair’s foreword ..................................................................................................... 5 Recommendations and conclusions .............................................................. 7 1. Introduction ................................................................................................. 12 Background .............................................................................................................................................................. 12 Evidence gathering ............................................................................................................................................ 13 A brief note on this report ........................................................................................................................... 14 2. Immigration policy after Brexit............................................................ 18 The UK’s current immigration system ............................................................................................. 18 Proposals for a post-Brexit immigration system .................................................................... 19 Changes to Tier 2................................................................................................................................................. 19 The £30,000 salary threshold ................................................................................................................... 21 The Migration in Wales report ................................................................................................................ 22 Welsh Government’s view .......................................................................................................................... 23 Our view ...................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Wider implications of the proposed changes ..........................................................................25 Cost ................................................................................................................................................................................. 26 Impact of uncertainty and the risk of “no deal” ...................................................................... 27 Our view ..................................................................................................................................................................... 29 Other sector-specific issues ...................................................................................................................... 29 Arts .................................................................................................................................................................................. 29 Further and higher education................................................................................................................ 30 Health, social care, and medical regulation ................................................................................ 31 Our view ....................................................................................................................................................................... 31 3. The EU Settlement Scheme and future of EU citizens in Wales 36 Background ............................................................................................................................................................ 36 Personal experiences in relation to the EU Settlement Scheme ............................ 37 Our view ..................................................................................................................................................................... 38 Changes to freedom of movement after Brexit - the implications for Wales Issues relating to the operation of the EUSS ............................................................................ 38 Digital “by default” ............................................................................................................................................ 39 Evidence from the UK Government ................................................................................................. 40 Our view ....................................................................................................................................................................... 41 Advice, support, and communication ............................................................................................. 42 Welsh Government view .............................................................................................................................. 44 Our view ...................................................................................................................................................................... 44 4. Impact across nations and regions - is there a case for regional immigration? ........................................................................................................ 48 Background ............................................................................................................................................................ 48 Demographics ...................................................................................................................................................... 48 Potential wider economic impact ..................................................................................................... 49 Arguments around spatial differentiation .................................................................................... 51 Shortage Occupation List (SOL) ............................................................................................................ 53 Welsh Government’s view ......................................................................................................................... 54 Our view ..................................................................................................................................................................... 55 Annex A ................................................................................................................... 57 Changes to freedom of movement after Brexit: the implications for Wales - oral evidence session 13 May 2019 .......................................................................................................57 Annex B ................................................................................................................... 58 Changes to freedom of movement after Brexit: the implications for Wales - consultation respondents .......................................................................................................................... 58 Annex C ................................................................................................................... 59 Changes to freedom of movement after Brexit: the implications for Wales - Focus group session ........................................................................................................................................ 59 Changes to freedom of movement after Brexit - the implications for Wales Chair’s foreword The four freedoms of the European Union – goods, capital, services, and people – have been a cornerstone of the single market and our membership of the EU. The freedom of movement of people has, over the last decades,
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