Population Trends 136 Summer 2009 in brief

Sedgefield, and Population Local Authority District Councils. ● UA was formed from , Berwick-upon-Tweed, Blyth Trends and Boundary Valley, , and Health Statistics Changes from District Councils. ● UA was formed from Bridgnorth, , Oswestry, Quarterly 1 April 2009 Shrewsbury & Atcham and South ONS are considering a possible merger of On 1 April 2009 a reorganisation of local Shropshire District Councils. Population Trends and its sister journal Health government created nine new unitary authorities Statistics Quarterly (HSQ) into one larger and (UAs) in . Five of these were created ● UA was formed from Kennet, more comprehensive quarterly journal at the from county councils and their district councils. , and West start of 2010. The remaining four were created by splitting Wiltshire District Councils. and respectively into two HSQ has been published for more than 10 each along district council boundaries. The nine As a result of these boundary changes, years, shares similar values to Population unitary authorities are, therefore, all aggregates UA with a population of around Trends, but concentrates on topical of former local authorities. Further details of the 530,000 is now the fourth largest local authority health-related issues. For example, the most reorganisation are: in terms of population, behind Birmingham, recent issue (No 42, Summer 2009) explores Leeds and Sheffield. social inequalities in adult female mortality ● Bedford UA was formed from Bedford and updates the measurement of chronic District Council This reorganisation has implications for statistics illness. for the former local authorities, as well as creating ● UA was formed from the need to support the new administrative bodies. Mid Bedfordshire and The intention is that for statistical publications The new combined title would offer a broader District Councils. and releases, where practically possible, and more complementary cross section of statistics will be available for the new UAs and news items, articles and data covering both key ● UA was formed from former district councils until the 2011 Census demographic/population and health issues. All , Crewe & Nantwich and results are released in 2013. material on fertility, mortality, migration and Macclesfield District Councils. other population themes currently found in this volume would be retained. ● Cheshire West and UA was formed from Chester, & Neston, The proposed title of a new journal is and District Councils. Population and Health Review. Social Trends 39 ● Cornwall UA was formed from , This annual publication draws together statistics Comments from readers of both journals are Carrick, , , from a wide range of government departments welcomed. Further details will be published and District Councils (note the and other organisations to paint a broad picture later in the year. remains separate). of contemporary UK society, and how it has changed over the years. The underlying theme Email: [email protected] or ● Durham UA was formed from Chester-le- of Social Trends 39 is households, families and [email protected] Street, , Durham, Easington, children.

3 Office for National Statistics Population Trends 136 Summer 2009

This year’s edition, published on 15 April government departments, as well as academics, ● the effect of population ageing on family 2009, shows how demographic patterns in the representatives from local government, and and household structures including trends UK continue to change. In 2007 there were voluntary organisations concerned with ageing. in living arrangements of older people 61.0 million people resident in the UK. Key and the factors associated with these, points in the population chapter include: The main aims of the day were: including transitions into communal establishment. Falls in birth rates and decreases in mortality ● To share ideas and information on ageing mean that the growing UK population is research ● informal and formal care provision, in becoming ever more skewed towards the older particular the implications of trends in age groups. Population projections indicate that ● To raise awareness of ONS work on ageing family and household structures and living by 2031 there will be more than 1.1 million arrangements on informal care provision people aged 90 and over in Great Britain. ● To ensure that our research is well targeted and the role of grandparents in the care for and meeting changing needs their grand-children. Population change is not just affected by births and deaths. Migration plays a key role A number of presentations were given in the ● the effects of caring on different aspects of in population growth and in 2007 around morning by ONS and external speakers and older carers’ lives, including employment 577,000 people arrived to live in the UK for group discussions took place in the afternoon. and retirement decisions, income, social at least 12 months, while around 340,000 networks, health, well being and quality left the country with the intention of living ONS speakers presented: of life, older workers and retirement, abroad for a year or more. Estimates show motivation to stay in work, exploring that around 243,000 people moved to the UK ● an overview of population change in the non-monetary benefits to working at older for work-related reasons in 2007, compared UK, focussing on Ageing and Mortality ages and examining barriers to employment with just over 100,000 in 1997. On the other based on the National Statistician’s article at older ages, refining predictors of hand, in 2007 more than 170,000 people left published in Population Trends nr 134 in retirement, affording retirement, and effects the UK to work, or look for work, abroad. The December 2008. of retirement on health, well being and most popular destinations for UK nationals quality of life. moving abroad in 2007 were Australia and ● completed, current and regular ageing New Zealand, followed by Spain and France. related research and outputs produced by Other important themes the ONS. This included work previously Other themes that emerged from the seminar The chapter also takes a look at key published in Population Trends (for were the need to: demographic indicators of other countries example, analysis of the ‘oldest old’ around the world, including seven countries, population, and Internal migration ● ensure ageing research is informed by key other than the UK, that sit on the Greenwich trends at older ages); estimates of life policy changes (for example, changes to Meridian Line. For this set of countries, the expectancy and healthy life expectancy; State Pensionable Age (SPA)) highest rates of infant mortality and fertility and and the recent analysis of subnational lowest life expectancies are found in countries ageing appearing in this edition of ● provide ageing information at local near the equator. Population Trends. authority level and for different sub-groups of the population, particularly for different In its entirety Social Trends takes a wide look at ● future areas of ONS work on ageing ethnic groups society with further chapters covering subjects including the development of a sub- as diverse as Education, Health, Transport, national data visualisation tool; the ● recognise the importance of longitudinal Lifestyles and more. production of a regular Ageing newsletter analysis, in particular sources like the and reporting on the demographic drivers English Longitudinal Study of Ageing The report can be accessed at: of ageing. (ELSA) www.statistics.gov.uk/socialtrends39 ● a specific example of current ONS ageing ● undertake more qualitative research to Social Trends 39 research on older workers. Further analysis further understanding of what older people Palgrave Macmillan, £52.00 will be published in Population Trends later really think about their lives and old age, ISBN 978-0-230-22050-8 in the year. and what makes older people happy.

Available by calling 01256 302611 or online at: In addition speakers from the Department Collaborative working www.palgrave.com/ons of Work and Pensions (DWP) presented the Collaborative working on ageing by government policy response to population researchers, policy makers and practitioners ageing. The new strategy for an ageing society both across and outside of government was is to be released later this year, building considered to be an important issue. on the existing Opportunity Age strategy. Additional information was presented by Suggestions to facilitate and encourage Ageing – DWP on extending working lives policies collaborative working included improving designed to retain and re-skill older workers access to ageing data sources and research by ensuring and encourage people back to work. There were establishing a dedicated Ageing webpage on further presentations from the Oxford Institute the NS website which would link to all ageing research and of Ageing, University College London and related outputs and provide links to non-ONS Southampton University. ageing research on the NS website. statistics meet The afternoon was given over to group Outputs discussions. The main focus of these was to There was positive feedback on the different the needs of a ask participants to identify priority areas for types and levels of ageing related outputs ageing research, gaps in existing research and produced by ONS. changing society outputs, and opportunities for collaborative working. Detailed reports of research published in On 27 March 2009 ONS held a seminar on Population Trends as well as contributions to Ageing to facilitate engagement with users and Research themes other ONS publications such as Pensions experts in the field. The seminar was attended Priority areas for ageing research identified in Trends, Social Trends and Health Statistics by policy makers and researchers from other the group discussions were: Quarterly, Focus on Older People and nuggets

Office for National Statistics 4 Population Trends 136 Summer 2009

of ageing information on the NS website were asylum seekers) and 800 people from the by the Statistical Directorate of the Welsh all considered to be useful for different armed forces Assembly Government on 26 March 2009. purposes. The pilot edition of the newsletter Ageing Times was well received and seen as a ● Over the year 38,500 people (including The publication brings together information on good sign-post to ageing work in the ONS. asylum seekers) came to from the demography of for the period 1971 Suggestions for improvements included overseas and 30,800 left Scotland to go to 2007. It looks at population and migration publishing a calendar of release dates for ageing overseas. The net gain of 7,700 is lower estimates, birth and death patterns, and also outputs and sending email alerts prior to than the record gain of 16,800 in 2006–07 focuses on the 2006-based national population releases. because more people left Scotland projections, and the recently published 2006-based local authority projections. ● The net gain from the rest of the UK The publication can be found at: Next steps exceeded that from overseas. Over the http://wales.gov.uk/topics/statistics/ Information and feedback from the seminar, year 53,300 people came to Scotland from publications/walespop09/?lang=en including the research priorities identified, is England, Wales and and being used to inform and prioritise the ONS 41,800 left Scotland to go in the opposite analytical ageing work programme. direction. The net gain of 11,500 is greater than the previous year’s 8,800 net gain ONS will continue to work closely with those because more people came to Scotland and Welsh working on ageing both across and outside of fewer left government. ONS are planning to set up an Population Ageing user group (to include policy makers, ● Among Council areas, between mid- practitioners and academics) to act as a 2007 and mid-2008, East Lothian had the sounding board for ideas and to facilitate wider largest percentage population increase Newsletter engagement. at +1.8 per cent followed by Perth & Kinross (+1.4 per cent) and Midlothian The Statistical Directorate of the Welsh The newsletter Ageing Times will be launched (+1.3 per cent). Argyll & Bute had the Assembly Government have recently later in the year. It will provide a regular update largest percentage population decrease at established a population statistics newsletter. on ageing research within ONS. –0.9 per cent, followed by Eilean Siar and This newsletter has been developed in order Inverclyde each with a percentage decrease to inform people of recent and forthcoming Further information can be obtained by of –0.4 per cent developments and publications. The newsletter contacting [email protected] is aimed at internal and external policy colleagues, researchers and economists that ● Among NHS Board areas, Lothian (+1.0 per cent), Borders (+0.9 per cent) and use demographic data and evidence to form Grampian (+0.8 per cent) had the largest policies, to plan services and to monitor and percentage population increases. The only evaluate policies and services. The population NHS Board area to have experienced a statistics newsletter forms part of a series of Mid-2008 decline in population was Western Isles statistical newsletters published by the Welsh (–0.4 per cent) Assembly Government, and will be published every two months. The most recent population Population newsletter, published in March 2009 is available ● In the year to mid-2008, the city Council areas experienced net losses of migrants at: http://new.wales.gov.uk/topics/statistics/ Estimates for to the rest of Scotland. However, more theme/population/?lang=en migrants came to the city Council areas Scotland from both the rest of the UK and from overseas than went in the other direction On 28 April 2009 the General Register Office for Scotland published its Mid-2008 Population ● There were 66 people per square kilometre 2011 Census Estimates Scotland. The key points of this in Scotland, ranging from 9 persons report are: per square kilometre in Eilean Siar and update Highland Council areas to 3,329 persons ● The estimated population of Scotland on per square kilometre in Glasgow City 30 June 2008 was 5,168,500, a rise of Council area. Census Rehearsal 24,300 on the previous year and the highest The Rehearsal for the 2011 Census in England since 1981 ● Further details may be found in the full and Wales will comprise approximately 135,000 publication, available at: households in the Isle of Anglesey (Ynys ● Between mid-2001 and mid-2008, www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/ Môn), Lancaster and Newham. Rehearsal day Scotland’s population increased by publications-and-data/population-estimates/ is 11 October 2009 and preparations are well 2.1 per cent (+104,300) from 5.06 million mid-2008-population-estimates-scotland/ underway. The Rehearsal in Northern Ireland to 5.17 million index.html at the same time will include around 5,000 households in the Local Government Districts ● Between mid-1998 and mid-2008, of Lisburn and Dungannon. The Rehearsal areas Scotland’s population increased by have been chosen to simulate actual Census 1.8 per cent (+91,430) from 5.08 million to type conditions by covering a cross section of 5.17 million Wales’ the population and housing types. A Rehearsal in Scotland was carried out earlier this year. ● In the twelve months up to 30 June 2008, the number of births exceeded the number Population: A field address checking exercise has of deaths by 3,900, the largest natural taken place and the findings are currently increase since 1991–92 A Demographic being incorporated into the address register in preparation for printing of addressed ● Over the year there was a net migration Overview 2009 questionnaires at the end of July. gain of 20,000 people. This includes net gains of 11,500 people from the rest of the The third comprehensive overview of The contract to provide integrated nationwide UK, 7,700 people from overseas (including demographic statistics on Wales was published personnel services for the 2011 Census has

5 Office for National Statistics Population Trends 136 Summer 2009

been awarded to Capita Business Services. Accessibility information will be on the indicate whether their overall stay is likely to Capita will provide services to help recruit, website and formats available to the public be less than 6 months, less than 12 months or train and pay the estimated 35,000 temporary at request through the Contact Centre. This longer-term. staff needed to deliver both the Rehearsal and message will be passed to key disability groups the Census itself. Staff will be recruited from through engagement and publicity. In addition, This enumeration base and these questions have local communities across England and Wales to the ONS Community Liaison team will be been evaluated through qualitative cognitive carry out Census field roles. Posts include Area looking at innovative ways of targeting these testing and quantitative postal tests and ONS Managers, local team coordinators and Census formats such as through libraries and disability are confident that they will collect the required delivery and collection staff. Recruitment clubs. Following evaluation of the Rehearsal, information in the 2011 Census. The 2009 for the Rehearsal started in May. Nationwide decisions will be made on the accessible Census Rehearsal in England, Wales and recruitment for the 2011 Census will start in formats to be produced for the 2011 Census. Northern Ireland will use this enumeration base June 2010. There will be a tendering exercise for a contract and include the new questions. to supply them. ONS continues to work with local authorities As the same strength of requirement for in the Rehearsal areas, gathering support for Workshops will be held in Autumn 2009, after information on migration was not identified recruitment of field staff and for local publicity. the Rehearsal, with a range of stakeholders in Scotland, the 2011 Census there will not be Local information and details of community from accessibility groups in order to discuss expanded to collect this information, and only contacts are being provided by the three initial feedback from the rehearsal and gather usual residents will be directed to complete a Rehearsal authorities. further views about plans for 2011. full Census return. However, it has been agreed that the main output base for the 2011 Census In order to provide accessible support ONS is Accessibility and usability testing of the should be common across the UK and that producing translation booklets in 30 languages Rehearsal website is under way. The second this would be usual residents defined as those as well as information in Braille, British Sign round of usability testing has been implemented people who: Language video clips and audio clips. All of by Abilitynet and work has begun with the these will be made readily available through RNIB to gain ‘See it Right’ accreditation for (a) have been, or intend to be, a resident of the community and local authority networks in 2011. On successful completion, the website UK for a period of 12 months or more; and Rehearsal areas (see also below). will meet RNIB and Abilitynet guidelines to maximise accessibility for users. (b) are not at the time of the Census living Development of all the supporting systems for outside the UK for a period of 12 months or the Census, particularly for the: Population bases for enumeration and more. outputs ● receipting and scanning returned paper The three UK statistical offices agreed in 2005 This will make the national level estimates questionnaires that the population base to be used for enumeration directly comparable with the MYEs for the first in the 2011 Census should be Usual Residents time, and also allow closer comparability with ● online questionnaire completion and Visitors. This was consistent with the population estimates from other countries. National Statistician and Registrars General’s ● web self-help and the Contact Centre, and agreement to harmonise the three UK Censuses However, some respondents with more than one residence will continue to be included at their ● internal management information system as closely as possible. This decision was to inform the effective deployment of the reached after extensive research and family home, as in the 2001 Census, to enable field force consultation, summarised in the paper Selection the production of accurate family statistics. This of the population base for the 2011 Census will mean that the sub-national population are also progressing as planned. enumeration (see www.statistics.gov.uk/about/ estimates will not be directly comparable with consultations/downloads/2011Census_ the MYEs, where everyone is, in theory, counted at the address where they spend the majority of Making the Census accessible consultation_population_base.pdf) the time. In England and Wales, information ONS is committed to delivering an inclusive will be collected on second residences, which 2011 Census and 2009 Rehearsal, providing an At that time, the exact definition of a usual may enable a Census estimate of the majority of accessible online service and additional support resident to be used had not been finalised, as this time population to be produced. formats to allow people to complete their was planned for agreement after further questionnaire independently. In addition, some consultation and extensive questionnaire testing. people may prefer to use an accessible support At the time of the 2007 Census Test, it was format in conjunction with their normal method assumed that the enumeration base for the 2011 of completion. ONS recognises there is no one Census would be broadly consistent with that method of completing a questionnaire and aims Revisions to used in 2001, but with the addition of visitors to provide choice. (the Test questionnaire reflected this), and that adjust mid-year After consultation with key groups such as the the same population base would be used for Royal National Institute for the Blind (RNIB) enumeration and outputs. However, further and British Deaf Association (BDA), the consultation identified increasing requirements population following Accessible Formats in English and for information on short-term migrants, and it

Welsh are to be piloted in the 2009 Rehearsal: was agreed that the Census (in England, Wales estimates by and Northern Ireland) would be expanded to ● Braille Guidance Booklet meet this need. To achieve this, it was agreed that a full Census return would be collected marital status ● Audio Guidance Cassette Tape from everyone who has been, or intends to be, resident in the UK for a period of three months for ● Audio Guidance CD or more in the 2011 Census. abroad ● British Sign Language (BSL) Guidance CD It would be necessary to be able to distinguish between usual residents and short-term migrants Revised mid-2002 to mid-2007 marital status ● Audio Clips on website in the Census database when producing outputs population estimates for England and Wales and, as a result, ONS have tested a question were published on the National Statistics ● BSL Clips on website on Intended length of stay in the UK to help website on 30 April 2009 and are available achieve this. Respondents who have lived in the at: www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product. ● Large print questionnaire UK for less than 12 months would be asked to asp?vlnk=15107

Office for National Statistics 6 Population Trends 136 Summer 2009

The revisions have been made to adjust the The revisions also include a correction for a previously published marital status population minor processing error in the original mid-2007 estimates to account for marriages of residents marital status estimates. Seminars on of England and Wales that take place abroad, and for marriages of overseas residents that take place in England and Wales. These people will improvements be incorrectly counted in the existing marital status estimates which use and to mid-2008 registrations in England and Wales to update UK National Census estimates of the resident population by population marital status. Statistics Marriage registration data used to compile the estimates marital status population estimates cover only Migration ONS will be holding a series of seminars in those marriages actually occurring in England June 2009 to explain the future improvements and Wales. However, some people who are Homepage and to, and underlying methodology of, the mid- usually resident in England and Wales travel 2008 population estimates. All interested parties abroad to marry, so are not included in the are welcome to attend and the changes will be marriage registrations, and some people who the Migration particularly of interest to Local Authorities and are overseas residents marry in England and Primary Care Organisations. Wales (marriage tourists) and are included in Statistics marriage registrations. The seminars will be held in Cardiff, Leeds, Quarterly Report Birmingham and London, on respectively The adjustments are made only for England and 19, 24, 25, and 26 June. For more details, Wales residents travelling outside the UK to get In May 2009 a new migration homepage registration form, and agenda see: married; the assumption is made that the number was launched on the UK National Statistics www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/methodology/ of England and Wales residents marrying in Publication Hub. This was inspired by the specific/population/future/imps/updates/ Scotland and Northern Ireland is equal to the Interdepartmental Migration Task Force’s seminar-english.asp number of Scotland and Northern Ireland recognition that migration statistics needed to residents marrying within England and Wales. be more accessible. The new homepage gives Alternatively, contact [email protected] or call an introduction to the topic and the range of 01329 444 695 for a registration form. The impact of these adjustments is cumulative data available. The page is located at: over the years between mid-2002 and mid- www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/cross-cutting-topics/ 2007. The mid-2007 revised estimates show migration/index.html. that the number of England and Wales residents who are married is 21,701,600. This is 313,800 May 2009 also saw the first edition of the (1.5 per cent) more than those shown in the Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, a joint Quick online previously published unadjusted estimates. bulletin by ONS, DWP and the Home Office. The revised estimates of the number of people Containing numerous graphs, the Report is who are single, divorced and widowed are intended to offer an interesting and accessible access to older correspondingly lower than the previously summary of the main messages coming from published estimates. the regular quarterly releases of migration Population data. The Report is available via the migration Marriages of England and Wales residents homepage, and people are invited to give their Trends articles abroad occurring prior to mid-2001 will already feedback on the Report so it can be developed be included within the published marital status for future quarters. Readers interested in locating earlier articles estimates as they will have been recorded in the published in Population Trends should know 2001 Census. Two new ONS products were also launched in that there is a search engine available to find May. The provisional International Passenger items quickly. This online article search facility Publication of these revised estimates follows Survey estimates of long-term international covers all ONS journals. To find an article it an earlier research project conducted by ONS migration offer an early indication of how is possible to do a text search for keywords, to estimate the number of marriages to UK migration is changing, several quarters before journal title, article title, author’s name, issue residents taking place outside the UK and the the official long-term estimates are published. number, and publication year. All articles number of marriages to overseas residents taking The new online viewer for local authority level published in Population Trends since Winter place within the UK. The results of this research migration indicators provides a useful way 1997 (issue no 90) are available online. Using were published in Autumn 2008 in Population of helping people understand how migration this search facility pdf files can be downloaded Trends 133, Report: Marriages abroad is affecting their area. Both of these products for each article; this service is free of charge. 2002–2007, available at: www.statistics.gov.uk/ can be accessed via the Migration Statistics To use this service go to: www.statistics.gov.uk/ downloads/theme_population/PT133_part2.pdf Quarterly Report. cci/articlesearch.asp

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