MSIntelligence ® EMPTY PACK SURVEY REPORT NETHERLANDS 2019 Q4
January 2020 CONTENTS EMPTY PACK SURVEY RESULTS Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS 01. 02.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY METHODOLOGY
03. 04.
KEY RESULTS APPENDIX 01.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY QUARTER 4, 2019 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: NON-DOMESTIC TREND
NON-DOMESTIC INCIDENCE % OF TOTAL SAMPLE 28.0%
25.2% 27.1%
24.4% 20.7% 19.7% 19.9% 17.9% 19.8% 18.7% 19.4% 16.8% Based on Packs
Based on Sticks
Thereof Counterfeit (based on Sticks)
0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q4 2018 Q2 2019 Q4 2019 147,418 148,331 150,867 152,192 151,955 149,553 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000
TOTAL SAMPLE = DOMESTIC AND NON-DOMESTIC PACKS 4 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: KEY MESSAGES
– Non-Domestic incidence at 19.4% (+0.6pp vs. 2019 Q2, +2.5pp vs. 2018 Q4) and counterfeit pack at 0.3% (-0.3pp vs. 2019 Q2, -0.02pp vs. 2018 Q4) Main Non-Domestic brands (excl. counterfeit) found were: – MARLBORO (PMI) at 8.0% (+0.5pp vs. 2019 Q2, +1.8pp vs. 2018 Q4) of total sample – CAMEL (JTI) at 1.5% (+0.1pp vs. 2019 Q2, +0.2pp vs. 2018 Q4) of total sample – WINSTON (JTI) at 1.5% (+0.7pp vs. 2019 Q2, +0.7pp vs. 2018 Q4) of total sample Main Non-Domestic market variants (excl. counterfeit) found were: – GERMANY at 3.6% (+0.7pp vs. 2019 Q2, +1.6pp vs. 2018 Q4) of total sample – DUTY FREE at 3.3% (+0.01pp vs. 2019 Q2, -0.1pp vs. 2018 Q4) of total sample – BELGIUM at 1.7% (-0.3pp vs. 2019 Q2, +0.2pp vs. 2018 Q4) of total sample Highest Non-Domestic incidence (excl. counterfeit) was found in: – ALMERE at 34.4% (+8.5pp vs. 2019 Q2, +6.0pp vs. 2018 Q4) – ZAANSTAD at 30.3% (+12.7pp vs. 2019 Q2, +7.1pp vs. 2018 Q4) – DELFT at 28.4% (+9.2pp vs. 2019 Q2, +24.6pp vs. 2018 Q4)
5 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: KEY VARIANCES
% OF TOTAL SAMPLE Based on number of sticks N= 149,553 sticks (weighted)
2019 Q4 VS. 2019 Q2 VS. 2018 Q4
NON-DOMESTIC INCIDENCE (incl. counterfeit) 19.4% +0.6pp +2.5pp
MAIN MARKET VARIANTS (excl. counterfeit) GERMANY 3.6% +0.7pp +1.6pp
DUTY FREE 3.3% +0.01pp -0.1pp
BELGIUM 1.7% -0.3pp +0.2pp MAIN BRAND FAMILIES (excl. counterfeit) MARLBORO (PMI) 8.0% +0.5pp +1.8pp
CAMEL (JTI) 1.5% +0.1pp +0.2pp
WINSTON (JTI) 1.5% +0.7pp +0.7pp MAIN CITIES (excl. counterfeit) ALMERE (ALMERE) 34.4% +8.5pp +6.0pp
ZAANSTAD (ZAANSTAD) 30.3% +12.7pp +7.1pp
DELFT (DELFT) 28.4% +9.2pp +24.6pp COUNTERFEIT INCIDENCE TOTAL COUNTERFEIT INCIDENCE 0.3% -0.3pp -0.02pp
PMI 0.28% -0.14pp -0.02pp
IMPERIAL TOBACCO 0.03% -0.08pp -0.01pp
JTI 0.01% -0.04pp +0.01pp 6 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: INFLOW MATRIX
% OF TOTAL SAMPLE Based on number of sticks N= 149,553 sticks (weighted)
MAIN INFLOWS VARIANCE VS.
COUNTERFEIT GERMANY DUTY FREE BELGIUM OTHERS TOTAL 2019 Q2 2018 Q4
MARLBORO (PMI) 0.3% 1.9% 1.7% 0.9% 3.5% 8.2% +0.4pp +1.8pp
CAMEL (JTI) - 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 1.5% +0.1pp +0.2pp
WINSTON (JTI) 0.01% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 1.5% +0.6pp +0.7pp
L&M (PMI) - 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% -0.2pp +0.04pp
LUCKY STRIKE (BAT) - 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% -0.2pp +0.1pp
PARLIAMENT (PMI) - 0.01% 0.3% - 0.3% 0.6% +0.2pp -0.2pp
OTHERS 0.03% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 4.1% 5.6% -0.3pp -0.1pp
TOTAL 0.3% 3.6% 3.3% 1.7% 10.5% 19.4% +0.6pp +2.5pp
VARIANCE VS. 2019 Q2 -0.3pp +0.7pp +0.01pp -0.3pp +0.5pp +0.6pp VARIANCE VS. 2018 Q4 -0.02pp +1.6pp -0.1pp +0.2pp +0.8pp +2.5pp
7 02.
METHODOLOGY QUARTER 4, 2019 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS OBJECTIVES, PROVISIONS, LIMITATIONS
OBJECTIVES Provide an indication on the incidence of non-domestic or illicit cigarettes consumed in NETHERLANDS : – Tax-paid and non-tax paid cigarettes from other countries – Counterfeit cigarettes – Gain information related to non-domestic or counterfeit cigarettes by: Manufacturer, City, Brand family, Market variant
PROVISIONS – Participating companies: British American Tobacco (BAT), Imperial Tobacco (ITL), Japan Tobacco International (JTI) and Philip Morris International (PMI). – Participating companies provided financial support for this study. MSIntelligence conducted the empty pack collection independently. The market variant of all collected packs and the authenticity of the collected packs bearing their packs trademarks were examined by the participating companies. – MSIntelligence assumed limited responsibility for the report findings and conclusion. The objectives and limitations of the report are set out on this page. Should any party choose to rely on the report, they do so at their own risk. – Non-domestic includes legal transportation.
LIMITATIONS – Homes and workplaces are not covered – No information on counterfeit incidence of non-participating companies – The survey is designed to focus on trends rather than incidence at a single point in time
9 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS RESEARCH APPROACH
METHOD GEOGRAPHY Random collection from streets – The largest 50 cities & public bins. Any brand, any – 44.9% coverage of population market variant. – Final data is weighted proportional to city Groningen Leeuwarden population TIMINGS Sudwest Fryslan Fieldwork: Emmen 23th September – 28th October Alkmaar Hoorn Purmerend 2019 Lelystad Zwolle Zaanstad Haarlem Almelo Amsterdam Almere Hengelo Haarlemmermeer Deventer Amstelveen Enschede Leiden Hilversum REPORTING Leidschendam-Voorburg Amersfoort Apeldoorn Alphen Aan den Rijn Utrecht Ede Arnhem The Hague Gouda The results are calculated based Delft Zoetermeer Westland Rotterdam Nijmegen on number of sticks equivalent Vlaardingen Dordrecht Spijkenisse Schiedam Oss to the number of packs S-Hertogenbosch Germany Breda Tilburg collected. Rosendael Helmond
Eindhoven Venlo
Belgium Sittard-Geleen Heerlen Maastricht
10 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS RESEARCH APPROACH
METHOD SAMPLING BY CITY Random collection from streets City Population Sample City Population Sample & public bins. Any brand, any AMSTERDAM 799,278 743 WESTLAND (NEELDWIJK) 102,698 95 market variant. ROTTERDAM 616,294 573 VENLO 100,159 93 THE HAGUE 505,856 470 DEVENTER 98,581 92 UTRECHT 321,916 299 DELFT 99,097 92 EINDHOVEN 218,433 203 LEEUWARDEN (LJOUWERT) 95,949 89 TIMINGS TILBURG 208,527 194 ALKMAAR 94,505 88 Fieldwork: ALMERE 195,213 182 SITTARD-GELEEN 94,024 87 23th September – 28th October GRONINGEN 195,418 182 HEERLEN 88,747 83 2019 BREDA 178,140 166 HELMOND 89,023 83 NIJMEGEN 166,382 155 HILVERSUM 86,017 80 ENSCHEDE 158,627 147 OSS 84,861 79 APELDOORN 157,315 146 AMSTELVEEN 84,379 78 REPORTING HAARLEM 153,093 142 SUDWEST FRYSLAN (IN: SNEEK) 82,639 77 The results are calculated based ARNHEM 149,827 139 HENGELO 80,952 75 on number of sticks equivalent ZAANSTAD 149,622 139 PURMEREND 79,482 74 ROOSENDAAL 77,155 72 to the number of packs AMERSFOORT 149,662 139 HAARLEMMERMEER 144,153 134 SCHIEDAM 76,216 71 collected. S-HERTOGENBOSCH 142,817 133 LELYSTAD 75,778 70 ZOETERMEER 123,092 114 ALPHEN AAN DEN RIJN 72,913 68 ZWOLLE 122,562 114 ALMELO 72,729 68 MAASTRICHT 121,819 113 SPIJKENISSE 72,375 67 LEIDEN 119,800 111 LEIDSCHENDAM-VOORBURG 72,588 67 DORDRECHT 118,466 110 VLAARDINGEN 70,905 67 EDE 109,823 102 GOUDA 70,904 67 EMMEN 108,392 101 HOORN 71,360 67 Total Sample 7,528,563 7,000
11 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS SAMPLE COMPOSITION: SHARE BY COMPANY
% OF TOTAL SAMPLE Based on number of sticks
1.6% 1.5% 1.2% 4.3% 6.1% 6.2% 1.2% 5.2% 5.3% 6.0% 1.2% 1.0%
10.3% 13.8% 12.4% 14.4% 15.3% 13.6%
16.6% 13.6% 13.1% 14.2% 17.5% 17.1%
66.3% 67.4% 67.8% 63.7% 60.2% 61.8%
OTHERS IMPERIAL TOBACCO BAT JTI PMI
2017-Q4 2018-Q1 2018-Q2 2018-Q4 2019-Q2 2019-Q4 147,418 148,331 150,867 152,192 151,955 149,553 (7,000) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000)
12 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS SAMPLE COMPOSITION: SHARE BY BRAND
% OF TOTAL SAMPLE Based on number of sticks
8.7% 7.7% 7.3% 7.2% 11.0% 1.0% 10.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 1.0% 1.6% 1.2% 2.0% 1.5% 2.0% 1.2% 1.8% 2.5% 1.5% 2.4% 2.7% 1.2% 2.1% 1.9% 2.4% 2.3% 3.2% 2.9% 2.5% 1.6% 2.2% 3.2% 1.4% 1.9% 1.6% 1.2% 4.9% 1.9% 2.2% 2.4% 7.1% 6.7% 4.7% 7.4% 5.4% 1.5% 5.2% 1.9% 4.9% 8.0% 7.8% 6.2% 8.4% 12.1% 10.8% 10.0% 10.0% 14.4% 11.6%
OTHERS BENSON & HEDGES JOHN PLAYER SPECIAL 61.1% KENT 56.0% 56.4% 58.1% 52.1% 52.5% GAULOISES PALL MALL WINSTON L&M LUCKY STRIKE CAMEL MARLBORO
2017-Q4 2018-Q1 2018-Q2 2018-Q4 2019-Q2 2019-Q4 147,418 148,331 150,867 152,192 151,955 149,553 (7,000) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000)
13 03.
KEY RESULTS QUARTER 4, 2019 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS NON-DOMESTIC: CATEGORIES
NON-DOMESTIC INCIDENCE CATEGORIES % OF TOTAL SAMPLE
Counterfeit 0.3%
Domestic 80.6%
Non-Domestic Other 19.4% Non-Domestic 19.0%
15 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS NON-DOMESTIC: BREAKDOWN
53.7% NON-DOMESTIC SPLIT BY COMPANY % OF NON-DOMESTIC SAMPLE INCIDENCE % OF TOTAL SAMPLE Others e.g. 20.2% KARELIA TOBACCO 0.7% 14.2% Domestic 6.4% H. VAN LANDEWYCK 0.3% 1.5% 1.0% 3.0% SOUZA CRUZ 0.3% 80.6% R.J. REYNOLDS 0.3% PMI JTI BAT IMPERIAL PMI PM USA OTHERS TOBACCO COUNTERFEIT
SPLIT BY MAIN BRAND % OF NON-DOMESTIC SAMPLE
MARLBORO 41.1% WINSTON 7.5% ROTHMANS 0.8% LAMBERT & BUTLER 0.8% L&M 5.2% BENSON & HEDGES 2.1% PARISIENNE 0.6% WEST 0.6% PARLIAMENT 3.0% STERLING 0.7% PRINCE 0.6% NEWS 0.5% CHESTERFIELD 2.1% LUCKY STRIKE 4.6% VOGUE 0.6% MARLBORO 0.8% PHILIP MORRIS 1.4% PALL MALL 2.6% DAVIDOFF 1.8% CAMEL 0.3% MARLBORO CF 1.5% KENT 1.9% GAULOISES 1.1% DUNHILL 0.2% CAMEL 7.9% DUNHILL 1.2% JOHN PLAYER SPECIAL 0.9% AMERICAN LEGEND 0.1%
Other Counterfeit Non-Domestic 0.3% SPLIT BY MARKET VARIANT % OF NON-DOMESTIC SAMPLE 19.0% 42.9% Others e.g. 18.4% 17.1% SPAIN 4.0% 8.5% FRANCE 3.7% 7.0% 4.4% 1.7% POLAND 3.5%
GERMANY DUTY FREE BELGIUM LUXEMBOURG UNITED COUNTERFEIT OTHERS KINGDOM 16 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS NON-DOMESTIC: BY MARKET & CITY (TOP 10 CITIES)
% OF TOTAL SAMPLE % OF TOTAL SAMPLE Based on number of sticks Trend Based on number of sticks indication
ALMERE 34.9% Groningen DELFT 30.5% Leeuwarden
ZAANSTAD 30.3% Sudwest Fryslan
AMSTERDAM 28.0% Emmen
ENSCHEDE 27.9% Alkmaar Hoorn Purmerend 27.4% Lelystad Zwolle EMMEN Zaanstad Haarlem Almelo Amsterdam Almere Hengelo BREDA 24.9% Haarlemmermeer Deventer Amstelveen Enschede Leiden Hilversum SCHIEDAM 24.5% Leidschendam-Voorburg Amersfoort Apeldoorn Alphen Aan den Rijn Utrecht Ede Gouda Arnhem HILVERSUM 23.8% The Hague Delft Zoetermeer Westland Rotterdam Nijmegen GOUDA 23.0% Vlaardingen Dordrecht Spijkenisse Schiedam Oss S-Hertogenbosch Germany Breda Tilburg Rosendael Helmond
Eindhoven Venlo
30%-42% Belgium Sittard-Geleen Heerlen Maastricht 20%-30%
10%-20%
0%-10%
17 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS NON-DOMESTIC: BY BRAND FAMILY & CITY
% OF TOTAL SAMPLE Based on number of sticks N= 149,553 sticks (weighted) NON-DOMESTIC VARIANCE VS.
MARLBORO (PMI) CAMEL (JTI) WINSTON (JTI) L&M (PMI) OTHERS TOTAL 2019 Q2 2018 Q4
AMSTERDAM 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 1.4% 3.0% +0.02pp +0.6pp
ROTTERDAM 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 1.4% -0.2pp +0.7pp
THE HAGUE 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.2% -0.1pp +0.5pp
ALMERE 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.02% 0.3% 0.9% +0.2pp +0.2pp
UTRECHT 0.3% 0.1% 0.04% 0.03% 0.3% 0.8% -0.2pp -0.2pp
BREDA 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.01% 0.1% 0.6% +0.2pp +0.3pp
ENSCHEDE 0.3% 0.1% 0.03% 0.01% 0.1% 0.6% +0.3pp +0.3pp
ZAANSTAD 0.2% 0.1% 0.01% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% +0.2pp +0.1pp
EINDHOVEN 0.3% 0.1% 0.01% 0.02% 0.1% 0.5% +0.2pp +0.2pp
TILBURG 0.3% 0.03% 0.04% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% +0.2pp +0.05pp
OTHERS 4.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 3.3% 9.4% -0.3pp -0.4pp
TOTAL 8.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 7.1% 19.4% +0.6pp +2.5pp
VARIANCE VS. 2019 Q2 +0.4pp +0.1pp +0.6pp -0.2pp -0.3pp +0.6pp VARIANCE VS. 2018 Q4 +1.8pp +0.2pp +0.7pp +0.04pp -0.2pp +2.5pp
18 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS COUNTERFEIT: BREAKDOWN
NON-DOMESTIC INCIDENCE SPLIT BY MAIN BRAND % OF TOTAL SAMPLE % OF COUNTERFEIT SAMPLE 87.7%
Domestic 80.6%
4.2% 4.2% 4.0%
MARLBORO LAMBERT & BUTLER WINSTON JOHN PLAYER SPECIAL
SPLIT BY LABELLING (MARKET VARIANT) % OF COUNTERFEIT SAMPLE 54.1% Other Counterfeit Non-Domestic 0.3% 19.0% 20.9% 12.5% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
DUTY FREE GERMANY BELGIUM BELARUS MALAYSIA UNITED KINGDOM
* Unspecified: packs with no country specific or Duty-Free labelling 19 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS COUNTERFEIT: BY MAIN BRAND FAMILY & CITY
% OF TOTAL SAMPLE Based on number of sticks N= 149,553 sticks (weighted)
COUNTERFEIT VARIANCE VS.
MARLBORO LAMBERT & BUTLER WINSTON JOHN PLAYER OTHERS TOTAL 2019 Q2 2018 Q4 SPECIAL AMSTERDAM 0.1% - - - - 0.1% -0.1pp +0.04pp
ALPHEN AAN DEN RIJN 0.03% - - - - 0.03% +0.03pp +0.03pp
DELFT 0.03% - - - - 0.03% +0.01pp +0.03pp
ENSCHEDE 0.03% - - - - 0.03% +0.03pp +0.03pp
HENGELO 0.03% - - - - 0.03% +0.03pp +0.03pp
THE HAGUE 0.01% - - 0.01% - 0.03% -0.04pp -0.0002pp
ALKMAAR 0.01% - - - - 0.01% +0.0002pp +0.01pp
ALMERE 0.01% - - - - 0.01% -0.01pp +0.01pp
AMERSFOORT - - 0.01% - - 0.01% +0.01pp +0.01pp
ARNHEM 0.01% - - - - 0.01% -0.01pp +0.01pp
OTHERS 0.1% 0.01% - - - 0.1% -0.2pp -0.2pp
TOTAL 0.3% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% - 0.3% -0.3pp -0.02pp
VARIANCE VS. 2019 Q2 -0.1pp +0.01pp -0.03pp -0.1pp -0.1pp -0.3pp VARIANCE VS. 2018 Q4 -0.01pp +0.0002pp +0.01pp +0.01pp -0.04pp -0.02pp
20 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS NON-DOMESTIC: INCIDENCE TREND
NON-DOMESTIC INCIDENCE % OF TOTAL SAMPLE 28.0%
25.2% 27.1%
24.4% 20.7% 19.7% 19.9% 17.9% 19.8% 18.7% 19.4% 16.8%
Based on Packs
Based on Sticks
Thereof Counterfeit (based on Sticks)
0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q4 2018 Q2 2019 Q4 2019 147,418 148,331 150,867 152,192 151,955 149,553 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000
TOTAL SAMPLE = DOMESTIC AND NON-DOMESTIC PACKS 21 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS NON-DOMESTIC: COMPANY TREND
27.1% % OF TOTAL SAMPLE Based on number of sticks 1.4% 24.4% 2.6% 1.0%
2.3%
4.5% 19.8% 19.4% 18.7% 3.8% 1.2% 0.7% 1.0% 1.7% 16.8% 1.3% 1.5% 4.4% 1.1% 2.7% 3.6% 1.3% 5.2% 2.9%
2.6% 3.9% 2.7% 3.0%
2.9% OTHERS
IMPERIAL TOBACCO 14.1% 12.2% BAT 10.7% 10.3% 10.7% 8.9% JTI
PMI
TOTAL
2017-Q4 2018-Q1 2018-Q2 2018-Q4 2019-Q2 2019-Q4
22 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS NON-DOMESTIC: BRAND FAMILY TREND
27.1% % OF TOTAL SAMPLE Based on number of sticks
24.4%
7.1%
6.5% 19.8% 0.4% 19.4% 18.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 16.8% 4.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.8% 3.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 4.2% OTHERS 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% DAVIDOFF 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.6% KENT 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 1.7% 0.2% CHESTERFIELD 1.3% 0.8% 1.3% 0.3% 1.5% 1.8% 0.8% BENSON & HEDGES 1.7% 0.8% 1.0% 1.5% 0.8% 1.4% PALL MALL 0.8% 1.2% PARLIAMENT 1.3% LUCKY STRIKE 10.3% L&M 8.5% 7.8% 8.2% 7.2% WINSTON 6.5% CAMEL MARLBORO TOTAL 2017-Q4 2018-Q1 2018-Q2 2018-Q4 2019-Q2 2019-Q4
23 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS NON-DOMESTIC: MARKET VARIANT TREND
27.1% % OF TOTAL SAMPLE Based on number of sticks
24.4%
11.6% 19.8% 19.4% 18.7% 11.1% 16.8%
6.9% 8.5% 1.1% 7.6% 1.2% 0.9% 7.4% 1.9% 0.7% OTHERS 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% FRANCE 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% 0.8% 2.4% SPAIN 0.8% 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% UNITED KINGDOM 1.4% 1.8% 0.8% 2.0% 1.7% LUXEMBOURG 5.5% 0.2% 1.4% BELGIUM 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% DUTY FREE 3.7% GERMANY TOTAL 4.1% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 2.9% 2.0%
2017-Q4 2018-Q1 2018-Q2 2018-Q4 2019-Q2 2019-Q4
24 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS NON-DOMESTIC: CITY TREND (TOP 10 CITIES)
SAMPLE NON-DOMESTIC INCIDENCE
CITY PACKS STICKS 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q4 2019 Q2 2019 Q4
ALMERE 182 3,930 27.2% 21.9% 31.6% 28.4% 27.0% 34.9% DELFT 92 1,910 27.2% 21.8% 17.0% 3.9% 20.3% 30.5% ZAANSTAD 139 2,875 29.6% 23.1% 8.9% 23.2% 17.6% 30.3% AMSTERDAM 743 15,862 27.5% 41.5% 31.2% 22.6% 28.1% 28.0% ENSCHEDE 147 3,132 15.5% 19.1% 14.1% 14.2% 12.2% 27.9% EMMEN 101 2,351 22.1% 16.9% 16.2% 9.9% 5.3% 27.4% BREDA 166 3,649 32.8% 23.6% 14.8% 11.9% 15.3% 24.9% SCHIEDAM 71 1,516 22.6% 23.4% 19.3% 13.0% 25.5% 24.5% HILVERSUM 80 1,694 25.6% 22.9% 39.9% 14.1% 31.4% 23.8% GOUDA 67 1,429 41.5% 21.4% 25.1% 23.6% 22.6% 23.0% TOTAL SAMPLE 7,000 149,553 27.1% 24.4% 19.8% 16.8% 18.7% 19.4%
25 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS COUNTERFEIT: BRAND FAMILY TREND
% OF TOTAL SAMPLE Based on number of packs
0.4%
0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
0.2%
OTHERS 0.1% 0.1% JOHN PLAYER SPECIAL WINSTON LAMBERT & BUTLER 0.04% 0.04% 0.01% 0.01% MARLBORO 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
2018-Q2 2018-Q4 2019-Q2 2019-Q4
26 04.
APPENDIX QUARTER 4, 2019 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS NON-DOMESTIC: STICKS PER COMPANY
NUMBER OF STICKS PER CATEGORY AND COMPANY IN % OF COMPANY TOTAL
Domestic Genuine Non- Counterfeit Non- Domestic Domestic
PMI 85,480 15,564 420 101,464 84.2% 15.3% - 0.4%
JTI 18,885 5,860 20 24,765 76.3% 23.7% - 0.1%
BAT 11,275 4,108 15,383 73.3% 26.7% - -
4,585 1,854
IMPERIAL 39 6,478 70.8% 28.6% - 0.6%
369
OTHERS 1,094 1,463 25.2% - 74.8% - Axis TitleAxis
28 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS NON-DOMESTIC: STICKS PER BRAND FAMILY
NUMBER OF STICKS PER CATEGORY AND BRAND IN % OF COMPANY TOTAL FAMILY
Domestic Genuine Non- Counterfeit Non- Domestic Domestic
MARLBORO 79,012 11,905 420 91,337 86.5% 13.0% - 0.5%
CAMEL 15,824 2,277 18,101 87.4% 12.6% - -
LUCKY STRIKE 6,679 1,346 8,025 83.2% 16.8% - - 5,816 L&M 1,515 7,331 79.3% 20.7% - - 1,541 2,181 WINSTON 20 3,742 41.2% 58.3% - 0.5% 2,095 PALL MALL 740 2,835 73.9% 26.1% - - 2,010 GAULOISES 313 2,323 86.5% 13.5% - - 1,308 KENT 560 1,868 70.0% 30.0% - - 1,535 254 JOHN PLAYER SPECIAL 19 1,808 84.9% 14.0% - 1.1% 820 BENSON & HEDGES 620 1,440 56.9% 43.1% - - 3,954 1,094 OTHERS 10,743 36.8% 52.8% 10.2% 0.2% 20 5,675 Axis Title
29 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS NON-DOMESTIC: TREND TOTAL COMPANY SAMPLE
NON-DOMESTIC INCIDENCE BY COMPANY – TREND % OF TOTAL COMPANY SAMPLE
PMI JTI BAT IMPERIAL OTHERS TOBACCO
N (Sti cks) 101,464 24,765 15,383 6,478 1,463
Packs 4,772 1,144 709 301 74
Non-Domestic - - - - 74.8%
2019 Q4 Counterfeit 0.4% 0.1% - 0.6% -
Genuine Non-Domestic 15.3% 23.7% 26.7% 28.6% -
Non-Domestic - - - - 82.7%
2019 Q2 Counterfeit 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.8% -
Genuine Non-Domestic 16.0% 17.1% 21.2% 23.9% -
Non-Domestic - - - - 91.5%
2018 Q4 Counterfeit 0.4% - - 0.7% -
Genuine Non-Domestic 12.8% 21.5% 20.9% 22.9% -
30 EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS OTHER NON-DOMESTIC: PACK EXAMPLES
Brand DUNHILL AMERICAN LEGEND HOLLYWOOD
Company SOUZA CRUZ KARELIA TOBACCO BRASCUBA Market variant BRAZIL UNSPECIFIED CUBA
31 ‘Unspecified’ are cigarettes packs that do not bear any market specific or Duty Free labeling EMPTY PACK SURVEY Q4 2019: NETHERLANDS AGENCY CONTACTS
KEY POINT OF CONTACT REPORTING SUPPORT Regis Derhy Philippe Landi Chief Operating Officer Analyst Manager [email protected] [email protected]
Tel (direct) +41-22-508-7703 Tel (direct) +41-22-508-7704 MSIntelligence
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