Research & Forecast Report

RICHMOND Accelerating success. Q4 2016 | Multifamily

Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar The Multifamily Market Remains a Good Bet for Property Investors

NATINOAL Overall rent growth in 2016 was upward of 4%, still exceeding Nationally, multifamily investment continues to be the hottest product the long-term average. Growth is expected to return to more type for 2017, especially in terms of acquisition, development, and sustainable levels within the next few years, but the sector will valuation. This is based on the Southeast Real Estate Business Jour- remain a secure bet for investors. nal’s sixth annual research forecast survey. The multifamily market is Millennials continue to drive demand throughout the multifam- showing signs of a moderate slowdown nationally this year, with av- ily market. The country’s largest generation remains partial to erage apartment rents decelerating on a national scale, and incoming renting over homeownership and Colliers International does not supply expected to push up vacancy rates. Experts say the sector will foresee that changing in the future. Millennials enter their prime remain strong amidst these challenges, as outlined in AXIOMetrics, renting ages between 20 and 34 years old, and as the gener- Inc. Market Performance Summary. ation ages, roughly 2 million more Millennial renters will enter RICHMOND the market. Axiometeric reports millennial demand isn’t likely to peak until 2024, when 70 million millennial renters are projected In the Richmond metropolitan area (RMA), the effective rent de- to hit the market. creased 1.3% from $1,011 in 3Q16 to $998 in 4Q16, which resulted in an annual growth rate of 2.5% for the RMA. Annual effective rent Heavily concentrated supply in Richmond will have an impact on growth is forecast to be 3.3% in 2017, and average 2.9% from 2018 the surrounding counties. A large amount of apartment supply to 2020. remains at the upper end of the spectrum and will hit high-rent markets, while the demand remains strong for apartments at Out of the 120 markets ranked by AXIOMetrics nationally, the Rich- the middle and lower end of the scale. Roughly 3,206 units are mond, VA Metro Area was 82nd for quarterly effective rent growth expected to come online this year. and 66th for annual effective rent growth for 4Q16. Occupancy levels supply has yet to exceed the number of mul- The market’s occupancy rate decreased from 95.2% in 3Q16 to tifamily households, which increased nationally by 9.3 million 94.9% in 4Q16, which was 94.5% a year ago. The market’s occu- between 2005 and 2015, according to the Census Bureau. As pancy rate exceeded the national average of 94.7% in 4Q16. For the a result, occupancy levels remain stable, with October’s 95.8% forecast period, the market’s occupancy rate is expected to be 95.2% nearly an all-time high. in 2017, and average 94.4% from 2018 to 2020. The market’s occu- pancy rate has averaged 94.5% since 3Q95. MARKET METRICS

Market Survey Results and Forecasts Sequential Month Annual 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Dec-16 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Effective Rent Per Unit $979 $1,009 $1,011 $998 $991 $950 $972 $999 $1,032 $1,064 $1,090 $1,123 Per Sq. Ft $1.08 $1.11 $1.11 $1.10 $1.09 $1.04 $1.07 $1.10 $1.14 $1.17 $1.20 $1.24 Effective Rent Growth - Annually 2.8% 3.1% 2.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 3.1% 2.4% 3.0%

Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 0.5% 3.1% 0.2% -1.3% Occupancy Rate 94.5% 95.2% 95.2% 94.9% 94.7% 94.3% 94.5% 94.9% 95.2% 94.7% 94.1% 94.6% Occupancy Change - Annually 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% -0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% -0.6% -0.6% 0.5% Occupancy Change - Quarterly 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% -0.3% Economic Concessions Concession Value $-7.40 $-3.86 $-3.69 $-7.34 $-10.51 $-11.06 $-5.89 As a % of Asking Rent -0.7% -0.4% -0.4% -0.7% -1.0% -1.2% -0.6% SUPPLY AND DEMAND According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Richmond, VA Metro Area was 0.9% in November 2016, reflecting 5,800 jobs added during a 12-month period.

Axiometrics forecasts Richmond, VA Metro Area’s job growth to be 2.6% in 2017, with 17,538 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.4% from 2018 to 2020, with an average of 9,681 jobs added each year.

On the supply side, permits for 1,096 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in November 2016, down -58 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 5,162 units were permitted in the 12 months ending November 2016, an increase of 304 units from the prior year’s total.

Market Employment and Permitting Annual November-16 Annual Forecast 2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Employment (000s) 622.6 633.4 651.5 677.1 146,399.0 671.6 689.2 701.3 709.3 718.2 Job Gain (000s) 9.6 10.8 18.1 5.8 2,277.0 20.2 17.5 12.1 8.0 8.9 Job Growth (%) 1.6% 1.7% 2.9% 0.9% 1.6% 3.1% 2.6% 1.8% 1.1% 1.3% Total Residential Permitting 4,832 4,330 4,858 4,893 1,087,532 5,174 6,387 8,087 6,722 6,431 Relative Change 18.4% -10.4% 12.2% 17.8% 1.9% 6.5% 23.4% 26.6% -16.9% -4.3% Single Family Units Permitted 3,386 3,199 3,602 3,699 686,576 Relative Change 27.8% -5.5% 12.6% 8.9% 8.7% Multifamily Units Permitted 1,362 1,006 1,154 1,077 371,009 Relative Change 8.3% -26.1% 14.7% 63.9% -8.6% Multifamily as a % of Total 28.2% 23.2% 23.8% 22.0% 34.1% Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.4 2.2 4.2 1.4 2.1 4.2 3.4 1.9 1.0 1.3 Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 3.6 3.2 5.7 1.7 3.6 Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 7.7 7.9 18.0 8.8 5.6

Multifamily Absorption and Supply Annual 4Q16 Annual Forecast 2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Total Units Absorbed 980 745 2,332 2,542 336,518 2,542 1,392 447 882 2,002 New Supply 1,130 1,224 1,865 2,109 365,032 2,109 1,271 1,305 1,488 1,110 Inventory Growth 0.9% 1.5% 1.9% 2.2% 1.5% 2.2% 1.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3%

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3 THE DEMAND SIDE • The most consistent winners are in areas that are subject to stiffer barriers to entry for new development. Hanover County is the most restrictive and affordability to will continue to be an issue there. Demand remains high in Hanover and the west end of Henrico. Demand remains high in northern Chesterfield. Petersburg has experienced a sudden bump due to the repositioning of a huge number of low income properties.

Effective Rent Growth Ranking by Submarket Submarket Rank 4Q16 LTA* 2016 2017-2020 North Chesterfield 1 5.4% 2.1% 3.6% 3.0% Far West End 2 3.6% 2.5% 3.3% 3.0% South Chesterfield 3 3.5% 2.2% 3.9% 3.0% 4 3.4% 2.2% 4.5% 3.2% Chesterfield County/Other 5 2.8% 1.8% 2.6% 2.9% Downtown/The Fan 6 2.5% 1.8% 1.1% 3.2% Hanover County 7 1.8% 2.6% 1.5% 3.2% Petersburg 8 1.2% 0.5% 4.0% 1.8% Southside/Westover Hills 9 1.1% 1.3% 3.3% 2.1% Southside/Broadrock 10 -0.4% 1.6% 2.0% 2.8% Airport 11 -0.5% 1.1% -0.2% 2.2% Northside/Laburnum 12 -1.3% 3.4% 2.2% -0.7% Market Average 1.9% 1.9% 2.7% 2.5%

• It’s not surprising that the submarket “Downtown/The Fan”-- which includes the booming districts of Manchester and Scotts Addition -- leads the region in occupancy despite the influx of so many new apartments. The Millennials are flocking to the urban core. The next four communities on the list are the beneficiaries of very restrictive land use controls in Henrico and Hanover County.

Occupancy by Submarket Submarket Rank 4Q16 LTA* 2016 2017-2020 Downtown/The Fan 1 97.7% 96.6% 96.8% 96.3% Hanover County 2 96.8% 95.0% 96.6% 95.9% Far West End 3 95.9% 95.6% 96.0% 95.5% Near West End 4 95.7% 96.5% 96.1% 95.8% Airport 5 95.5% 95.1% 94.9% 94.6% Southside/Westover Hills 6 94.9% 96.4% 95.3% 95.4% Southside/Broadrock 7 94.9% 90.4% 94.9% 93.9% Chesterfield County/Other 8 94.8% 92.3% 93.8% 93.2% North Chesterfield 9 94.0% 93.1% 94.8% 95.2% Petersburg 10 92.3% 95.4% 93.5% 94.8% South Chesterfield 11 92.2% 93.6% 92.2% 91.4% Northside/Laburnum 12 91.3% 90.8% 91.7% 92.5% Market Average 94.7% 94.2% 94.7% 94.5% *LTA - Long term average 1996 (or available) to current

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4 IDENTIFIED SUPPLY As of January 9, 2017, Axiometrics has identified 1,913 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2016, which all units have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 1,679 apartment units delivered in 2015. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,310 per unit, or $1.59 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,267, or $1.54 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-42.89. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $1,006 per unit ($1.11 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $998 per unit, or $1.10 per square foot, in 4Q16. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-7.34.

Submarket Delivery Schedule Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent Top Submarkets 2014 2015 2016 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Downtown/The Fan 385 347 425 1,157 271 10 $1,310 $1.98 $1,300 $1.96 Far West End 200 220 318 738 152 16 $1,514 $1.38 $1,510 $1.38 Near West End 90 234 240 564 270 13 $1,321 $1.35 $1,247 $1.27 North Chesterfield 58 457 418 933 61 15 $1,219 $1.57 $1,119 $1.44 Southside/Westover Hills 129 140 201 470 88 8 $1,244 $1.61 $1,228 $1.59 Other 411 281 311 1,003 842 11 $1,316 $1.59 $1,277 $1.54 Richmond, VA 1,273 1,679 1,913 4,865 *Based on 2016 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 5 RECENT SALES Real Capital Analytics provides information on 20 communities which encompas in the 2nd half of 2016. The most notable sales, were Champion Club (212 units) and Park West End (312 units), far west end mid-80’s garden apartments. The Colliers International | East Region team, consisting of Will Mathews, Jason Hetherington, Bruce Milam and Jackie Noel, represented the Seller, Core Management Holdings of Newport Beach, California. A third local community-- Hickory Creek (294 units), owned by Core and sold by Colliers-- closed in June. The total value for the three communities was over $82 Million.

Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units Dec-16 Hawthorne Hall 3505 Chamberlayne Ave Richmond 124 1963 5,100,000 41,129 Nov-16 Maple Springs Apartment 5624 Maple Run Ln Henrico 268 1986 23,950,000 89,366 Homes Nov-16 Sunrise 705 Pool Rd Richmond 229 1976 / 19,500,000 85,153 2004 Oct-16 4053 Old Brook Rd 4053 Old Brook Rd Richmond 99 1976 8,375,000 84,596 Aug-16 The Birches Apartments 1307 And 1224 W Graham Rd Richmond 98 1956 / 1999 5,500,000 56,122 2318 Cecil Rd An Aug-16 Audubon Village II 4633 Needham Ct Henrico 160 1974 / 3,300,000 20,625 2001 Aug-16 Riverview 205 Archer Ave Colonial Heights 88 2003 5,500,000 62,500 Jul-16 Madison Terrace 2110 Richmond St Hopewell 76 1979 3,055,000 40,197 Jul-16 Champions Club 4200 Harwin Glen Allen 212 1985 23,320,000 110,000 Jul-16 Park West End 5300 Glenside Dr Henrico 312 1985 28,500,000 91,346 Jul-16 River Road Terrace 20800 Riverterrace Rd Petersburg 128 1973 / 2,900,000 22,656 2005 Jul-16 Meadow Creek 5312 Hull Street Rd Richmond 144 1973 / 2010 6,250,000 43,403 Jun-16 Audubon Village I & II 4901 Wood Thrush Cir Henrico 214 2001 13,600,000 63,551 Jun-16 Ashland Woods I & II 1100 W Omni Ter Ashland 150 1999 10,400,000 69,333 Jun-16 Aspen Station 1500 Forest Run Dr Henrico 232 1980 22,900,000 98,707 Jun-16 Hickory Creek 2344 Hickory Creek Dr Henrico 294 1985 28,550,000 97,109 Jun-16 Millspring Commons 9318 Tarheel Ter Henrico 159 1972 / 18,180,000 114,340 2008 Jun-16 South Pointe Landing 6110 Cricklewood Dr Richmond 192 1972 11,650,000 60,677 Jun-16 Hanover Crossing 9258 Hanover Crossing Dr Mechanicsville 220 1987 22,793,000 103,605 Apartments Jun-16 Wilde Lake 2900 Bywater Dr Henrico 190 1989 20,937,000 110,195

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 6 PIPELINE DETAIL # Name Status Owner Address Market Units Lease-Up Total Units 1,328 1 Plant 1 Apartments Lease Up Larson Development 403 Stockton St Old Town Manchester 134 2 City View Lofts Lease Up Jim Schwalls & Associates, Inc. 409 Bainbridge St Old Town Manchester 219 3 The Crossings at Hanover Lease Up Smith/Packett 8227 Meadowbridge Rd Hanover County 110 4 Ironbridge Corner Apartments Lease Up Surber Development 6700 Iron Creek Rd Chesterfield County 80 5 City View Lofts - Phase II Lease Up Jim Schwalls & Associates, Inc. 611 Bainbridge St Old Town Manchester 98 6 Deco at CNB Lease Up Douglas Development Corporation 219 E Broad St City Center 200 7 Element at Stonebridge Lease Up Boyd Homes 301 Karl Linn Dr Chesterfield County 263 8 Charleston Ridge Apartments Lease Up Charter Realty 10449 Atlee Station Rd Hanover County 137 9 Apts: Phase II Lease Up Genesis Properties 1905 Cedar St 87 Under Construction Total Units 3,051 10 Valley West Apartments Under Construction Emerson Builders 100 N 20th St 160 11 Avia Luxury Apartments Under Construction Commonwealth Properties 12350 W Broad St Western Henrico County 320 12 Alta Stony Point Under Construction The Taubman Company Chippenham Pky Stony Point 282 13 Courtyard Lofts at Scott's Under Construction Cushman & Wakefield|Thalhimer 3200 W Clay St Scott's Addition 100 Addition Property Management 14 Bristol at West Creek Under Construction Riverstone Properties, LLC 12000 W Creek Pky Goochland County 373 15 GRTC Under Construction The Monument Companies, LLC 101 S Davis St The Fan 285 16 Symbol Mattress Development Under Construction Spy Rock Real Estate Group 1814 Highpoint Ave Scott's Addition 202 17 The Village at Westlake Under Construction The Breeden Company 6508 Jahnke Rd Jahnke 252 18 Element at Stonebridge Phase II Under Construction Boyd Homes 301 Karl Linn Dr Chesterfield County 137 19 The Overlook Under Construction Historic Housing Ltd. 1817 E Main St Shockoe Bottom 76 20 Overbrook Lofts Under Construction Henry Salomonsky 1650 Overbrook Rd The Diamond 173 21 James River at Stony Under Construction Wood Partners 9201 Stony Point Pky Stony Point 282 22 The Retreat At West Creek - Under Construction Pegasus Residential, LLC 1000 Wilkes Ridge Pl Goochland County 82 Phase II 23 Gumenick Apartments Under Construction Gumenick Properties 5001 Libbie Mill Blvd E Western Henrico County 327 Proposed Total Units 4,767 24 Jackson Place Proposed CPDC Inc N 1st St 174 25 Reynolds Packaging Proposed Cushman & Wakefield|Thalhimer W 6th St Old Town Manchester 263 Redevelopment Property Management 26 Church Hill North Proposed City Of Richmond 1611 N 31st St Church Hill North 155 27 Abberly at CenterPointe Proposed University Of 1900 Brandermill Pky Midlothian 271 28 3200 W Broad St Proposed Better Housing Coalition 3200 W Broad St Scott's Addition 150 29 Belmont Apartments Proposed 2252 Llc 4000 W Broad St Sauer's Gardens 238 30 Chamberlayne Rd @ New Proposed Edge Development Partners Chamberlayne Rd @ New Hanover County 286 Ashcake Rd Ashcake Rd 31 Manchester on the James Proposed Northwood Ravin 700 Cowardin Ave Woodland Heights 200 32 603 E Franklin St Proposed City of Richmond Dept. of 603 E Franklin St City Center 364 Economic Development 33 Fountainhead MF Project Proposed Fountainhead Properties 115 Hull St Old Town Manchester 225 34 Colony Village Phase II Proposed Plus Management 10220 Jefferson Davis Chesterfield County 166 Hwy 35 Element at Stonebridge - P III Proposed Boyd homes 301 Karl Linn Dr Chesterfield County 200 36 Big Oak at Bell Creek Proposed Stanley Shield, Inc Left Flank Rd Hanover County 331 37 Kotarides River Mill Proposed Kotarides Magnolia Ridge Dr & Western Henrico County 285 Brook 38 CMB Multi-Family Development: Proposed CMB Development, LLC 519 E Main St City Center 84 Phase II 39 1903 E Marshall St Proposed GTR Cedar, LLC 1903 E Marshall St Upper Shockoe Valley 178 40 Winterfield Crossing Apartments Proposed Blackwood Development 14210 Midlothian Tpke Midlothian 250 41 Oakland Chase Phase II Proposed Commonwealth Commercial 6418 Oak Front Ct Eastern Henrico County 150 42 Scott's View Proposed Historic Housing Ltd. 1400 Roseneath Rd Scott's Addition 258 43 Canopy at Proposed Union Theological Seminary Va 1311 Westwood Ave Sherwood Park 301 44 Midlothian Town Center Proposed CMB Development, LLC 1300 Winterfield Rd Midlothian 238 Apartments Total Units 9,146

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 7 PIPELINE MAPS Richmond

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COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 8 OUR PROVEN TRACK RECORD Recent Closings

Property Hickory Creek Champions Club Park West End Address 2344 Hickory Creek Dr 4200 Harwin Place 5300 Glenside Drive Henrico, VA 23294 Glen Allen, VA 23060 Richmond, VA 23228 Vintage 1984 1987 1985 Units 294 212 312 Occupancy 95.0% 97.6% 95.2% Avg SF 932 778 721 Avg Rent $957 $888 $822 Rent PSF $1.03 $1.14 $1.14 Closing Date June 21, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 11, 2016

“We were extremely pleased with the East Region team and its ability to attract an incredible amount of interest in our 3 assets. The number of offers received and the end results exceeded our expectations. They have a talented group who was a pleasure to work with. Their performance stands out against any of the groups we work with nationally.” Nels Billsten, Vice President | CORE Realty Holding Management

WE CAN HELP YOU As an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need the East Region Multifamily Advisory Group. Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives. How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 9 RICHMOND IN THE NEWS CoStar CEO explains move to Richmond, which will bring hundreds of employees, by Michael Thompson, Richmond Bizsense While it may not have been the only factor, Richmond’s glut of downtown office space and the resulting price per square foot helped seal the deal to bring a major new employer to the riverfront. CoStar CEO Andrew Florance said the real estate research firm will pay in the mid-$20s per square foot annually for its recently announced lease of about 100,000 square feet at the WestRock building at 501 S. Fifth St., where it plans to eventually hire more than 700 employees. A similar deal in CoStar’s hometown of Washington, D.C. would have cost three times as much as in Richmond, Florance said. WHO WE ARE He said Richmond’s office market is similar to other cities around the country that have a big supply of “second generation space.” “It’s not a super tight market,” he said of Richmond. “It’s One of the largest and most more of a tenant’s market.” experienced teams of multifamily , by specialists in the industry Nonprofit buys hotel in Richmond’s Scott Addition for redevelopment project Carol Hazard, Richmond Times-Dispatch A nonprofit developer has purchased a hotel most recently known as a Quality Inn for a MORE THAN redevelopment project in the rapidly changing Scott’s Addition area of Richmond. The property is a block from a planned stop for GRTC’s Pulse bus rapid transit system. If all goes 50 according to plan, the redeveloped property — a mixture of adaptive reuse and new construction — could open by the end of 2018, when Pulse begins service, Harris said. The Pulse corridor Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors is a 7.6-mile route from to Willow Lawn that runs mostly along Broad Street. “Scott’s Addition is a neighborhood of opportunity,” Harris said. “It was important to be near the transit line and in an up-and-coming neighborhood that is one of the most vibrant in the city.” COVERING OVER Scott’s Addition — an area bound on the east by Boulevard, the south by West Broad Street, the STATES west by Interstate 195 and the north by railroad tracks — has benefited from millions in private 20 investment in the past several years. Expansive geographic footprint “The cool thing is, there will be kids in Scott’s Addition,” Harris said. “We want to make sure the community is very family-friendly.” Rents are expected to range from $700 to $1,000 a month for a two-bedroom apartment and MORE THAN could serve families with annual incomes from $28,000 to $58,000 for a two-person household. Steven A. Markel, an early investor in the project and vice chairman of specialty insurer Markel 33,500 Corp. in Henrico County, said he views the project as an investment in the Better Housing Coalition and the greater community. Units sold since 2011 “It became clear during the course of our discussions that this development could be a game- changer for working families in our city,” Markel said. The project will have about 30,000 square feet of commercial space. “Here is a different tactic, where we are investing in a neighborhood with tremendous growth B over the last couple of years, but most everything invested there is for people on the upper end $2.3 of the spectrum,” Harris said. Group gross transaction value since 2011

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 10 JASON HETHERINGTON, SIOR BRUCE MILAM Senior Vice President | Senior Vice President | Richmond Richmond & Norfolk & Norfolk [email protected] [email protected] +1 804 591 2407 +1 804 591 2412

WILL MATHEWS JACKIE NOEL, CCIM CPM Principal | East Region Senior Broker | Richmond & [email protected] Norfolk +1 404 877 9285 [email protected] +1 804 591 2423

CRAIG BROWN Associate | East Region [email protected] +1 404 978 2336

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