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Final Project Report Boulevard Diamond Stadium Highest & Best Use Analysis

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Final Project Report Boulevard Diamond Stadium Highest & Best Use Analysis Final Project Report Boulevard Diamond Stadium Highest & Best Use Analysis Prepared for The City of Richmond Richmond, VA Submitted by Economics Research Associates Davenport & Company LLC Chmura Economics & Analytics September 2008 ERA Project No. 17889 1101 Connecticut Avenue, NW Suite 750 Washington, DC 20036 202.496.9870 FAX 202.496.9877 www.econres.com Los Angeles San Francisco San Diego Chicago Washington DC London New York Table of Contents I. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 5 Executive Summary......................................................................................................................... 5 Key Findings ................................................................................................................................... 6 Discussion of Key Items & Assumptions...........................................................................................9 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 10 II. Methodology and Approach ...................................................................................... 13 Boulevard and Shockoe Bottom Site Considerations ...................................................................... 13 Land Planning Assumptions.......................................................................................................... 17 Market Demand Assumptions.......................................................................................................18 Parking Requirements and Proposed Layout .................................................................................. 20 Summary of Development Program Assumptions.......................................................................... 22 Project Costs................................................................................................................................. 22 Project Revenues........................................................................................................................... 25 Net Benefit Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 29 Appendix A: Net Benefit Analysis – Comparison of Project Costs and Revenues ............ A-1 Appendix B: Highest and Best Use Market Study............................................................. B-1 Demographic and Economic Context: Regional (City v. Metro)......................................................B-1 Real Estate Market Existing Conditions .......................................................................................B-14 Hospitality/Hotel Market Demand Overview ...............................................................................B-19 Office Demand Overview ...........................................................................................................B-22 Retail Demand Overview............................................................................................................B-31 Highest and Best Use Recommendations....................................................................................B-34 Diamond Site Highest and Best Use Recommendations ..............................................................B-40 Appendix C: Chmura Economic Impact Report ............................................................... C-1 Economics Research Associates Project Report No. 17889 Page 1 Index of Tables/Figures Table 1:City of Richmond Economic Impact Summary ..................................................................... 8 Table 2: Boulevard Site Property Owners and Acreage................................................................... 14 Table 3: Comparison of Development Program Assumptions......................................................... 22 Table 4: Summary of On-Site Stadium Revenue Assumptions ................................................... 27 Table 5: Summary of Net Benefit Analysis ..................................................................................... 29 Figure 1: Map of Boulevard Project Area ....................................................................................... 14 Figure 2: Map of Shockoe Bottom Project Area ............................................................................. 16 Appendix A Appendix Table A-1: Scenario A - Stadium Redeveloped at Current Boulevard Site (New Construction) Appendix Table A-2: Scenario B - Stadium Relocated to Shockoe Bottom Site (Boulevard Site) Appendix Table A-3: Scenario B - Stadium Relocated to Shockoe Bottom (Shockoe Site) Appendix Table A-4: Stadium Spending and Tax Assumptions Appendix Table A-5: Summary of Identified Site Parcel Information Appendix Table A-6: Commercial Parking Garage Assessed Value Assumptions Appendix Table A-7: Boulevard Site Industrial Use Relocation Cost Assumptions Appendix Table A-8: Debt Schedules (Davenport & Company LLC) Appendix B Appendix Table B- 1: Population Trends, 2000-2012....................................................................... 2 Appendix Table B- 2: Share of Population by Age, 2007 & 2012 ..................................................... 3 Appendix Table B- 3: Household Profile of Subject Site Area, Richmond, and the MSA, 2000-2012 . 5 Appendix Table B- 4: Area Income Profile, 2007-2012 .................................................................... 6 Appendix Table B- 5: Share of Households by Household Income, 2007.......................................... 7 Appendix Table B- 6: Net Migration, City of Richmond, 1999-2006................................................. 8 Appendix Table B- 7: Top Counties for In-Migration to the City of Richmond, 1999-2006................ 8 Appendix Table B- 8: Employment by Industry, 2000 & 2007 ........................................................ 10 Appendix Table B- 9: Virginia Labor Market Statistics Projections for Labor Markets X & XI (Richmond and Surrounding Area), 2004-2014 ...................................................................................... 11 Appendix Table B- 10: Employment Projections by Industry, City of Richmond, 2000-2020............ 12 Appendix Table B- 11: Top Tapestry Segments by Area.................................................................. 13 Appendix Table B- 12: Annual Richmond Citywide Mixed-Use Urban Housing Demand ................. 18 Appendix Table B- 13: Geographic Source of Demand by Product Type ......................................... 19 Appendix Table B- 14: Tapestry Segmentation of Housing Demand............................................... 19 Appendix Table B- 15: Metropolitan Richmond Area Hotel Room Supply, 2008............................. 22 Appendix Table B- 16: Summary of Area Office Market Statistics, 2005-2008................................ 24 Appendix Table B- 17: Class Detail of Near West Submarket Office Statistics.................................. 25 Economics Research Associates Project Report No. 17889 Page 2 Appendix Table B- 18: Class Detail of Richmond CBD Office Statistics ............................................ 26 Appendix Table B- 19: Class Detail of Shockoe Submarket Office Statistics..................................... 27 Appendix Table B- 20: Class Detail of City of Richmond Office Statistics......................................... 28 Appendix Table B- 21: Class Detail of Richmond Market Office Statistics........................................ 29 Appendix Table B- 22: Shockoe Bottom Development Program ..................................................... 35 Appendix Table B- 23: Project Capture by Tapestry Segment by Unit Type ..................................... 36 Appendix Table B- 24: Estimated On-Site Demand by Tapestry Segment by Unit Type.................... 37 Appendix Table B- 25: Unit Size and Pricing Recommendations..................................................... 38 Appendix Table B- 26: Boulevard Site Retail Market Characteristics and Capture Rates ................... 43 Appendix Table B- 27: Boulevard Site Comparative Retail Market Characteristics and Capture Rates45 Appendix Table B- 28: Boulevard Site Captured Retail Spending .................................................... 46 Appendix Table B- 29: Boulevard Site Total Supportable Retail Square Feet by Store Type .............. 47 Appendix Table B- 30: Market Penetration of Hypothetical Shopping Center Tenants..................... 48 Figure B- 1: Change in Share in Population by Age, 2007-2012....................................................... 3 Figure B- 2: Growth in Population by Age Cohort, 2007-2012 ........................................................ 4 Figure B- 3: Change in Share of Households by Household Income, 2007-2012 .............................. 7 Figure B- 4: 2007 Share of Employment by Industry........................................................................ 9 Figure B- 5: Richmond City and MSA Total Building Permits by Type, 2003-2007........................... 14 Figure B- 6: Richmond City Building Permits, 1999-June 2008....................................................... 15 Figure B- 7: Regional Retail Space by Jurisdiction........................................................................... 31 Figure B- 8: Retail Sales Leakage/Surplus Comparison, City of Richmond and Henrico County......... 32 Figure B- 9: Shockoe Bottom Area of Analysis ..............................................................................
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