Research & Forecast Report

RICHMOND Accelerating success. Q4 2017 | Multifamily

Market Indicators RVA RVA Pressures on Replacement Relative to prior period Q4 2017 Q1 2018* Costs Drive the Values of VACANCY RENTS Existing Communities CONCESSIONS TRANSACTIONS There was a marked rise in the perceived value of Richmond multifamily real PRICE PER UNIT estate in 2017 from a year ago, especially for Class B value-add properties. In 2016, the big story locally was the sale of the CORE portfolio of three CAP RATES communities for roughly $81 Million. The highest value was that of the 210 *Projected unit Champions Club at $110,000. The sale set a new bar for 1980’s vintage garden communities in the region but that record was shattered in 2017 by the sale of the 340-unit Wellesley Terrace at $151,000 per door. In less than one year, the perceived values for a Class B value add 1980’s vintage community near Short Pump in Henrico County escalated nearly 50%. Those sales were not anomalies in the market place. Copper Springs in Henrico County closed out the year at $148,000 per door, and Hunter’s Chase, a property in dire need of upgrades, in Chesterfield County, closed out at $131,000 per door. Millspring Commons, a rental townhouse community near Hermitage HS in the northern part of Henrico County closed at $130,000 per door. Huguenot Village, a townhouse rental community near the Chesterfield Town Center, sold for $135,000 per door. All of these properties ranged from 210 to 300 units, so the total dollar volume of each sale was phenomenal for this market. Although cap rates can be calculated in any number of ways, well located Class B properties in the region sold in the range of 5.5% CAPs. The new tax bill has added a driver to the market for 2018. Cash flows will be taxed at lower rates than ever before and the gains on sales will be taxed at lower rates as well. The 1031 taxed deferred exchange was preserved as an option for sellers. If the attendance and energy of the NMHC conference in Orlando is any indication of the market’s strength, 2018 will bring along another string of record breaking sales to the Richmond market. History has taught us that every market peak is followed by a “correction”. Chris Lee of CEL Associates, a national consulting firm, is quick to point out that every economic downturn in the last fifty years has begun with the number “7”, “8”, or “9” in the right- hand column. However, he also points out that regardless of the economy, when you graduate from high school, you rent. When you graduate from college, you rent. When you get married you rent. When you divorce, you rent twice! Will market demand for apartments, the momentum coming into 2018 and the new tax law be enough to overcome history? We believe that 2018 will be a very big year for apartment investment.

Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar MARKET METRICS

Market Survey Results and Forecasts Sequential Month Annual 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Dec-17 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Effective Rent Per Unit $1,005 $1,040 $1,053 $1,047 $1,051 $968 $995 $1,036 $1,071 $1,093 $1,120 $1,154 Per Sq. Ft $1.11 $1.14 $1.16 $1.15 $1.16 $1.07 $1.09 $1.14 $1.18 $1.20 $1.23 $1.27 Effective Rent Growth - Annually 3.0% 3.6% 4.7% 5.3% 6.1% 2.3% 2.8% 4.2% 3.3% 2.1% 2.4% 3.1%

Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 1.1% 3.5% 1.2% -0.6% Occupancy Rate 94.9% 95.6% 96.1% 95.7% 95.3% 94.7% 95.1% 95.6% 94.8% 94.0% 94.5% 95.1% Occupancy Change - Annually 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% -0.8% -0.9% 0.5% 0.6% Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.1% 0.7% 0.5% -0.4% Economic Concessions Concession Value $-6.75 $-4.70 $-3.30 $-3.47 $-3.15 $-5.91 $-5.48 As a % of Asking Rent -0.7% -0.5% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.6% -0.5%

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2 SUPPLY AND DEMAND According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Richmond, VA Metro Area was 1.4% in November 2017, reflecting 9,700 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was at the national number.

Axiometrics forecasts Richmond, VA Metro Area’s job growth to be 1.5% in 2018, with 10,297 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.2% from 2019 to 2021, with an average of 8,008 jobs added each year.

On the supply side, permits for 2,410 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in November 2017, up 1,659 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 7,134 units were permitted in the 12 months ending November 2017, an increase of 2,297 units from the prior year’s total.

Market Employment and Permitting Annual November-17 Annual Forecast 2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Employment (000s) 633.3 651.5 664.3 681.4 148,507.0 675.2 685.5 692.7 700.1 709.5 Job Gain (000s) 10.7 18.1 12.8 9.7 2,114.0 10.9 10.3 7.3 7.4 9.4 Job Growth (%) 1.7% 2.9% 2.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% Total Residential Permitting 4,330 4,858 4,837 6,530 1,155,517 7,301 7,740 6,722 6,431 5,527 Relative Change -10.4% 12.2% -0.4% 33.5% 6.3% 50.9% 6.0% -13.2% -4.3% -14.1% Single Family Units Permitted 3,199 3,602 3,955 4,220 756,569 Relative Change -5.5% 12.6% 9.8% 14.2% 10.2% Multifamily Units Permitted 1,006 1,154 751 2,133 366,148 Relative Change -26.1% 14.7% -34.9% 98.1% -1.3% Multifamily as a % of Total 23.2% 23.8% 15.5% 32.7% 31.7% Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.2 4.2 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.5 Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 3.2 5.7 3.6 2.6 3.1 Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 7.9 18.0 11.1 9.0 5.7

Multifamily Absorption and Supply Annual 4Q17 Annual Forecast 2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Total Units Absorbed 816 2,010 1,687 1,643 367,785 1,789 740 1,138 1,822 730 New Supply 1,224 1,597 1,432 1,212 365,158 1,212 2,173 1,718 905 667 Inventory Growth 1.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 2.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7%

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3 THE DEMAND SIDE Effective rent decreased 0.6% from $1,053 in 3Q17 to $1,047 in 4Q17, which resulted in an annual growth rate of 5.3%. Annual effective rent growth is forecast to be 3.3% in 2018, and average 2.5% from 2019 to 2021. Annual effective rent growth has averaged 2.3% since 3Q96. The market’s annual rent growth rate was above the national average of 2.3%. Out of the 120 markets ranked by Axiometrics nationally, Richmond, VA Metro Area was 52nd for quarterly effective rent growth, and 16th for annual effective rent growth for 4Q17.

Effective Rent Growth Ranking by Submarket Submarket Rank 4Q17 LTA* 2017 2018-2021 Northside/Laburnum 1 9.6% 3.9% 7.5% 2.5% Hanover County 2 8.9% 2.8% 5.9% 3.0% Petersburg 3 8.5% 0.8% 2.1% 3.2% North Chesterfield 4 6.9% 2.2% 4.5% 3.5% Southside/Westover Hills 5 6.1% 1.4% 4.3% 2.7% Chesterfield County/Other 6 5.5% 1.9% 4.9% 2.7% Far West End 7 5.3% 2.5% 4.2% 2.8% South Chesterfield 8 5.2% 2.3% 4.1% 3.1% 9 4.8% 2.4% 4.7% 2.7% Airport 10 3.4% 1.3% 3.3% 2.4% Downtown/The Fan 11 2.9% 1.8% 3.1% 2.8% Southside/Broadrock 12 2.7% 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% Market Average 5.8% 2.1% 4.2% 2.8%

The market’s occupancy rate decreased from 96.1% in 3Q17 to 95.7% in 4Q17, but was up from 95.0% a year ago. The market’s occupancy rate was above the national average of 94.7% in 4Q17. For the forecast period, the market’s occupancy rate is expected to be 94.8% in 2018, and average 94.5% from 2019 to 2021. The market’s occupancy rate has averaged 94.5% since 3Q95.

Occupancy by Submarket Submarket Rank 4Q17 LTA* 2017 2018-2021 Far West End 1 96.9% 95.6% 96.5% 95.2% Near West End 2 96.8% 96.7% 96.8% 96.2% Downtown/The Fan 3 96.5% 96.5% 96.2% 95.0% Southside/Broadrock 4 96.4% 90.8% 95.6% 95.0% Chesterfield County/Other 5 95.9% 92.5% 95.8% 94.3% North Chesterfield 6 95.8% 93.6% 95.1% 94.3% Petersburg 7 95.8% 96.9% 95.9% 93.6% South Chesterfield 8 95.4% 93.8% 94.2% 93.2% Southside/Westover Hills 9 94.9% 95.7% 94.7% 95.1% Hanover County 10 94.4% 95.1% 96.3% 95.6% Airport 11 94.3% 95.1% 95.1% 95.0% Northside/Laburnum 12 89.0% 91.1% 90.8% 91.3% Market Average 95.2% 94.4% 95.3% 94.5% *LTA - Long term average 1996 (or available) to current

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4 IDENTIFIED SUPPLY As of January 15, 2018, Axiometrics has identified 1,218 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2017, which all units have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 1,736 apartment units delivered in 2016. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,349 per unit, or $1.57 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,309, or $1.53 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-39.91. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $1,050 per unit ($1.16 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $1,047 per unit, or $1.15 per square foot, in 4Q17. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-3.47.

Submarket Delivery Schedule Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Downtown/The Fan 71 87 158 47 4 $1,313 $1.47 $1,313 $1.47 Near West End 347 395 331 1,073 167 7 $1,356 $1.84 $1,351 $1.83 North Chesterfield 76 82 158 62 15 $1,356 $1.38 $1,356 $1.38 South Chesterfield 457 319 189 965 -32 -2 $1,383 $1.57 $1,212 $1.37 Southside/Westover Hills 140 187 256 583 136 17 $1,353 $1.45 $1,263 $1.35 Other 659 764 273 1,696 302 11 $1,292 $1.51 $1,286 $1.51 Richmond, VA 1,679 1,736 1,218 4,633 682 7 $1,351 $1.58 $1,312 $1.53 *Based on 2017 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 5 RECENT SALES

Real Capital Analytics provides information on 18 communities which encompasses the 2nd half of 2017. The most notable sale was Wellesley Terrace Apartments in the Far West End submarket, 1989 vitnage garden-style apartments. The Colliers International | East Region team, consisting of Will Mathews, Jason Hetherington, Bruce Milam, represented the Seller.

Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units Dec-17 Village At The Arbors 5613 Crenshaw Rd Henrico 292 1965 17,120,000 58,630 Dec-17 Colony at Centerpoint 14400 Palladium Dr Chesterfield 255 2015 45,500,000 178,431 Dec-17 Copper Spring 9421 W Broad St Richmond 366 1989 54,200,000 148,087 Nov-17 The Glen At Colonial 15101 Lorimer Rd Chester 192 1979 18,970,992 98,807 Heights Nov-17 Colonial Ridge Apartments 15101 Lorimer Rd Chester 192 1979 9,229,000 48,068 Nov-17 2394 Afton Avenue 2394 Afton Ave Richmond 134 1965 3,425,000 25,560 Nov-17 Millspring Commons 9318 Tarheel Ter Laurel 159 1972 20,600,000 129,560 Nov-17 Rollingwood 6300 Pewter Ave Midlothian 278 1976 24,400,000 87,770 Oct-17 Maggie L Walker 3901 Pilots Ln Henrico 496 1981 40,000,000 80,645 Apartments Oct-17 Bailey's Ridge Apartments 4750 Bailey's Ridge Dr Prince George 156 1999 13,215,000 84,712 Sep-17 Wedge at Courtyard Lofts 1323 East Main St Richmond 54 1866 6,320,000 117,037 Sep-17 Crystal Lakes 3501 Meadowdale Blvd Chesterfield 720 1967 37,500,000 52,083 Sep-17 Broad Street Apartments 27 West Broad St Richmond 102 1910 15,000,000 147,059 Aug-17 Courthouse Green 6417 Statute St Chesterfield 266 1972 25,300,000 95,113 Aug-17 Town And Country 1402 Barriedale Rd Richmond 646 1970 33,300,000 51,548 Apartments Jul-17 Wellesley Terrace 3807 Chase Wellesley Ct Short Pump 340 1989 51,127,657 150,375 Apartments Jul-17 Falling Creek Apartments 2530 Marina Dr Chesterfield 348 1964 13,000,000 37,356 Jun-17 The Argon 3805 Cutshaw Ave Richmond 66 1964 10,200,000 154,545 * Based on Real Capital Analytics

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 6 PIPELINE DETAIL

# Name Status Owner Address Market Units Proposed Total Units 5,814 1 Jackson Place Proposed CPDC, Inc. N 1st St MF 154 2 Church Hill North Proposed City Of Richmond 1611 N 31st St Church Hill North MF 155 3 Abberly at CenterPointe Proposed University Of 1900 Brandermill Pky Midlothian MF 271 4 Cambridge Square Apartments Proposed Charter Realty and Development Co Brandy Run Dr & Brandy Hi Hanover County MF 207 5 3200 W Broad St Proposed Better Housing Coalition 3200 W Broad St Scott's Addition MF 210 6 Belmont Apartments Proposed 2252 Llc 4000 W Broad St Sauer's Gardens MF 238 7 Chamberlayne Rd @ New Ashcake Proposed Edge Development Partners Chamberlayne Rd @ New Hanover County MF 286 Rd Ashcake Rd 8 Manchester on the James Proposed Northwood Ravin 700 Cowardin Ave Woodland Heights MF 200 9 603 E Franklin St Proposed City of Richmond Dept. of Economic 603 E Franklin St Downtown Richmond MF 364 Development 10 Uptown Alley Proposed Uphoff Ventures 600 W Grace St VCU MF 129 11 Fountainhead MF Project Proposed Fountainhead Properties 115 Hull St Old Town Manchester MF 225 12 Port RVA Phase II Proposed Property Results, LLC 512 Hull St Old Town Manchester MF 188 13 4235 Innslake Dr Proposed Wam Associates Llc 4235 Innslake Dr Western Henrico County MF 350 14 Moore's Manner Apartments - Proposed Plus MGT 12310 Jefferson Davis Hwy Chesterfield County MF 185 Phase II 15 Big Oak at Bell Creek Proposed Stanley Shield, Inc. Left Flank Rd Hanover County MF 331 16 Kotarides River Mill Proposed Kotarides Magnolia Ridge Dr & Brook Western Henrico County MF 285 17 CMB Multi-Family Development: Proposed CMB Development, LLC 519 E Main St Downtown Richmond MF 84 Phase II 18 Main2525 Proposed Better Housing Coalition 2515 E Main St MF 216 19 James at River Bend Proposed Historic Housing Ltd. 2825 E Main St Shockoe Bottom MF 100 20 Marshall Lofts Proposed EGP Properties LLC 2 W Marshall St Jackson Ward MF 166 21 Winterfield Crossing Apartments Proposed Blackwood Development Co. 14210 Midlothian Tpke Midlothian MF 250 22 Midlothian West Proposed BWS Enterprises, LLC 14291 Midlothian Tpke Midlothian MF 275 23 Oakland Chase Phase II Proposed Commonwealth Commercial 6418 Oak Front Ct Eastern Henrico County MF 150 24 Westchester Proposed Riverton Associates Perimeter Dr Midlothian MF 236 25 Scott's View Proposed Historic Housing Ltd. 1400 Roseneath Rd Scott's Addition MF 258 26 Canopy at Proposed Union Theological Seminary VA 1311 Westwood Ave Sherwood Park MF 301 Under Construction Total Units 2,733 27 2000 West Creek Under Construction Riverstone Properties, LLC 12000 W Creek Pky Goochland County MF 373 28 GRTC Phase II Under Construction The Monument Companies, LLC 101-S S Davis Ave The Fan MF 125 29 The Edge at ATC Under Construction Emerson Builders 1914 E Franklin St Shockoe Bottom MF 160 30 The Village at Westlake Under Construction The Breeden Company 1500 German School Rd Jahnke MF 252 31 Symbol Apartments Under Construction Spy Rock Real Estate Group 1814 Highpoint Ave Scott's Addition MF 183 32 Colony Village Phase II Under Construction Plus Management 10220 Jefferson Davis Hwy Chesterfield County MF 166 33 Moore's Lake Apartments Under Construction Plus Management 12310 Jefferson Davis Hwy Chesterfield County MF 100 34 Element at Stonebridge - Phase III Under Construction Boyd Homes 301 Karl Linn Dr Chesterfield County MF 200 35 1903 E Marshall St Under Construction GTR Cedar, LLC 1903 E Marshall St Upper MF 178 36 Apartments/ Under Construction The WVS Companies LLC 5200 Old Osborne Tpke Eastern Henrico County MF 156 Block 18 37 Townhomes at Parham Place Under Construction Kotarides 7818 E Parham Rd Western Henrico County MF 200 38 River’s Edge at Manchester Under Construction Purcell Construction 505 Porter St Old Town Manchester MF 213 39 pine Ridge MHC- Phase II Under Construction Sun Communities, Inc. 400 Swift St Prince George County MF 100 40 Gumenick Apartments Under Construction Gumenick Properties 5001 Libbie Mill Blvd E Western Henrico County MF 327 Total Units 8,547

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 7 PIPELINE MAPS Richmond

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28 10 1 20 9 17 2 35 29 18 Key 38 11 8 19 Lease-Up 12 30 Under Construction 36 Proposed

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 8 OUR PROVEN TRACK RECORD Recent Closings

Property Wellesley Terrace Hickory Creek Champions Club Park West End Address 3807 Chase Wellesley Dr 2344 Hickory Creek Dr 4200 Harwin Place 5300 Glenside Drive Henrico, VA 23233 Henrico, VA 23294 Glen Allen, VA 23060 Richmond, VA 23228 Vintage 1989 1984 1987 1985 Units 340 294 212 312 Occupancy 93.8% 95.0% 97.6% 95.2% Avg SF 852 932 778 721 Avg Rent $1,084 $957 $888 $822 Rent PSF $ 1.27 $1.03 $1.14 $1.14 Closing Date July 11, 2017 June 21, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 11, 2016

“We were extremely pleased with the East Region team and its ability to attract an incredible amount of interest in our 3 assets. The number of offers received and the end results exceeded our expectations. They have a talented group who was a pleasure to work with. Their performance stands out against any of the groups we work with nationally.” Nels Billsten, Vice President | CORE Realty Holding Management

WE CAN HELP YOU As an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need the East Region Multifamily Advisory Group. Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives. How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 9 RICHMOND IN THE NEWS

VCU’s continual growth, though mostly within its existing footprint, is one of the driver’s of Richmond’s economy, Richmond Times-Dispatch All across the city, new buildings are popping up on behalf of one of the state’s largest public colleges. The buildings range from a new art institute to a dormitory to a health and wellness center in the East End. In his annual State of the University address Thursday in front of more than 230 members of the VCU community, President Michael Rao called VCU an “anchor institution” in Richmond. Rao’s speech highlighted not only the university’s diversity but also its $6 billion in economic impact.

WHO WE ARE Chesterfield Elected Leaders Move to Cut Real Estate Tax Rate by a Penny, Richmond Times-Dispatch

One of the largest and most Chesterfield County’s elected leaders moved forward with knocking a penny off the real estate experienced teams of multifamily tax rate Wednesday, riling some in the community early on in the budget season. specialists in the industry The Board of Supervisors unanimously voted to advertise a real estate tax rate of 95 cents per $100 of assessed value, leaving the rest of the county’s taxes unchanged. The county projects that reducing the rate by a penny will mean $3.5 million less in revenue. In the budget adopted MORE THAN last year, real estate taxes were expected to account for $339 million.

50 Virginia to intensify courtship of Amazon for HQ2 site in Northern Virginia, Dedicated Multifamily Richmond Times-Dispatch Professionals & Advisors The courtship is getting serious for Virginia to woo Amazon to build its second world headquarters in Northern Virginia, one of 20 urban areas in North America on the short list for a project that could produce a $5 billion investment and 50,000 jobs for the winner. COVERING OVER STATES But the opportunity for Virginia is not just the four sites the state pitched last fall in the Northern Virginia suburbs in an extraordinary economic development sweepstakes that Amazon 24 launched on Sept. 7. The company also chose potential sites on the north side of the Potomac Expansive geographic footprint River in Washington, and Montgomery County, Md., which are part of a larger “mega-region” with Virginia that is positioning itself for economic growth.

MORE THAN Groundbreaking: Commercial Real Estate Year in Review, Richmond BizSense Facebook announced in October plans to construct a $1 billion, 970,000-square-foot 39,000 data center on about 330 acres of the park. The region fended off competition from Units sold since 2011 the Northern Virginia suburbs to land the deal, work for which has since been dished out to various contractors. The biggest news out of downtown last year is race to secure a development team to replace the aging Richmond Coliseum and revamp surrounding blocks. A group led by Tom Farrell was leading an initial charge at the idea and then the city issued an RFP for an arena-anchored B development that would look to revitalize about 20 acres of the city. $2.8 One of the biggest deals of the year came in January, when Bill Goodwin’s Riverstone Properties Group gross transaction value since became the new owner of the James Center, a three-building office complex encompassing 2011 nearly 1 million square feet at 901, 1021 and 1051 E. Cary St. Goodwin’s group payed $108 million for the assets.

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 10 JASON HETHERINGTON, SIOR BRUCE MILAM Senior Vice President | Senior Vice President | Richmond Richmond & Norfolk & Norfolk [email protected] [email protected] +1 804 591 2407 +1 804 591 2412

WILL MATHEWS CARTER WOOD Principal | East Region Associate | Richmond & Norfolk [email protected] [email protected] +1 404 877 9285 +1 804 591 2433

PAYTON HERSCHBERGER Associate | East Region [email protected] +1 404 574 1061

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