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RICHMOND Accelerating Success

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RICHMOND Accelerating Success Research & Forecast Report RICHMOND Accelerating success. Q4 2017 | Multifamily Market Indicators RVA RVA Pressures on Replacement Relative to prior period Q4 2017 Q1 2018* Costs Drive the Values of VACANCY RENTS Existing Communities CONCESSIONS TRANSACTIONS There was a marked rise in the perceived value of Richmond multifamily real PRICE PER UNIT estate in 2017 from a year ago, especially for Class B value-add properties. In 2016, the big story locally was the sale of the CORE portfolio of three CAP RATES communities for roughly $81 Million. The highest value was that of the 210 *Projected unit Champions Club at $110,000. The sale set a new bar for 1980’s vintage garden communities in the region but that record was shattered in 2017 by the sale of the 340-unit Wellesley Terrace at $151,000 per door. In less than one year, the perceived values for a Class B value add 1980’s vintage community near Short Pump in Henrico County escalated nearly 50%. Those sales were not anomalies in the market place. Copper Springs in Henrico County closed out the year at $148,000 per door, and Hunter’s Chase, a property in dire need of upgrades, in Chesterfield County, closed out at $131,000 per door. Millspring Commons, a rental townhouse community near Hermitage HS in the northern part of Henrico County closed at $130,000 per door. Huguenot Village, a townhouse rental community near the Chesterfield Town Center, sold for $135,000 per door. All of these properties ranged from 210 to 300 units, so the total dollar volume of each sale was phenomenal for this market. Although cap rates can be calculated in any number of ways, well located Class B properties in the region sold in the range of 5.5% CAPs. The new tax bill has added a driver to the market for 2018. Cash flows will be taxed at lower rates than ever before and the gains on sales will be taxed at lower rates as well. The 1031 taxed deferred exchange was preserved as an option for sellers. If the attendance and energy of the NMHC conference in Orlando is any indication of the market’s strength, 2018 will bring along another string of record breaking sales to the Richmond market. History has taught us that every market peak is followed by a “correction”. Chris Lee of CEL Associates, a national consulting firm, is quick to point out that every economic downturn in the last fifty years has begun with the number “7”, “8”, or “9” in the right- hand column. However, he also points out that regardless of the economy, when you graduate from high school, you rent. When you graduate from college, you rent. When you get married you rent. When you divorce, you rent twice! Will market demand for apartments, the momentum coming into 2018 and the new tax law be enough to overcome history? We believe that 2018 will be a very big year for apartment investment. Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar MARKET METRICS Market Survey Results and Forecasts Sequential Month Annual 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Dec-17 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Effective Rent Per Unit $1,005 $1,040 $1,053 $1,047 $1,051 $968 $995 $1,036 $1,071 $1,093 $1,120 $1,154 Per Sq. Ft $1.11 $1.14 $1.16 $1.15 $1.16 $1.07 $1.09 $1.14 $1.18 $1.20 $1.23 $1.27 Effective Rent Growth - Annually 3.0% 3.6% 4.7% 5.3% 6.1% 2.3% 2.8% 4.2% 3.3% 2.1% 2.4% 3.1% Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 1.1% 3.5% 1.2% -0.6% Occupancy Rate 94.9% 95.6% 96.1% 95.7% 95.3% 94.7% 95.1% 95.6% 94.8% 94.0% 94.5% 95.1% Occupancy Change - Annually 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% -0.8% -0.9% 0.5% 0.6% Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.1% 0.7% 0.5% -0.4% Economic Concessions Concession Value $-6.75 $-4.70 $-3.30 $-3.47 $-3.15 $-5.91 $-5.48 As a % of Asking Rent -0.7% -0.5% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.6% -0.5% COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2 SUPPLY AND DEMAND According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Richmond, VA Metro Area was 1.4% in November 2017, reflecting 9,700 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was at the national number. Axiometrics forecasts Richmond, VA Metro Area’s job growth to be 1.5% in 2018, with 10,297 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.2% from 2019 to 2021, with an average of 8,008 jobs added each year. On the supply side, permits for 2,410 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in November 2017, up 1,659 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 7,134 units were permitted in the 12 months ending November 2017, an increase of 2,297 units from the prior year’s total. Market Employment and Permitting Annual November-17 Annual Forecast 2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Employment (000s) 633.3 651.5 664.3 681.4 148,507.0 675.2 685.5 692.7 700.1 709.5 Job Gain (000s) 10.7 18.1 12.8 9.7 2,114.0 10.9 10.3 7.3 7.4 9.4 Job Growth (%) 1.7% 2.9% 2.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% Total Residential Permitting 4,330 4,858 4,837 6,530 1,155,517 7,301 7,740 6,722 6,431 5,527 Relative Change -10.4% 12.2% -0.4% 33.5% 6.3% 50.9% 6.0% -13.2% -4.3% -14.1% Single Family Units Permitted 3,199 3,602 3,955 4,220 756,569 Relative Change -5.5% 12.6% 9.8% 14.2% 10.2% Multifamily Units Permitted 1,006 1,154 751 2,133 366,148 Relative Change -26.1% 14.7% -34.9% 98.1% -1.3% Multifamily as a % of Total 23.2% 23.8% 15.5% 32.7% 31.7% Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.2 4.2 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.5 Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 3.2 5.7 3.6 2.6 3.1 Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 7.9 18.0 11.1 9.0 5.7 Multifamily Absorption and Supply Annual 4Q17 Annual Forecast 2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Total Units Absorbed 816 2,010 1,687 1,643 367,785 1,789 740 1,138 1,822 730 New Supply 1,224 1,597 1,432 1,212 365,158 1,212 2,173 1,718 905 667 Inventory Growth 1.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 2.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3 THE DEMAND SIDE Effective rent decreased 0.6% from $1,053 in 3Q17 to $1,047 in 4Q17, which resulted in an annual growth rate of 5.3%. Annual effective rent growth is forecast to be 3.3% in 2018, and average 2.5% from 2019 to 2021. Annual effective rent growth has averaged 2.3% since 3Q96. The market’s annual rent growth rate was above the national average of 2.3%. Out of the 120 markets ranked by Axiometrics nationally, Richmond, VA Metro Area was 52nd for quarterly effective rent growth, and 16th for annual effective rent growth for 4Q17. Effective Rent Growth Ranking by Submarket Submarket Rank 4Q17 LTA* 2017 2018-2021 Northside/Laburnum 1 9.6% 3.9% 7.5% 2.5% Hanover County 2 8.9% 2.8% 5.9% 3.0% Petersburg 3 8.5% 0.8% 2.1% 3.2% North Chesterfield 4 6.9% 2.2% 4.5% 3.5% Southside/Westover Hills 5 6.1% 1.4% 4.3% 2.7% Chesterfield County/Other 6 5.5% 1.9% 4.9% 2.7% Far West End 7 5.3% 2.5% 4.2% 2.8% South Chesterfield 8 5.2% 2.3% 4.1% 3.1% Near West End 9 4.8% 2.4% 4.7% 2.7% Airport 10 3.4% 1.3% 3.3% 2.4% Downtown/The Fan 11 2.9% 1.8% 3.1% 2.8% Southside/Broadrock 12 2.7% 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% Market Average 5.8% 2.1% 4.2% 2.8% The market’s occupancy rate decreased from 96.1% in 3Q17 to 95.7% in 4Q17, but was up from 95.0% a year ago. The market’s occupancy rate was above the national average of 94.7% in 4Q17. For the forecast period, the market’s occupancy rate is expected to be 94.8% in 2018, and average 94.5% from 2019 to 2021. The market’s occupancy rate has averaged 94.5% since 3Q95. Occupancy by Submarket Submarket Rank 4Q17 LTA* 2017 2018-2021 Far West End 1 96.9% 95.6% 96.5% 95.2% Near West End 2 96.8% 96.7% 96.8% 96.2% Downtown/The Fan 3 96.5% 96.5% 96.2% 95.0% Southside/Broadrock 4 96.4% 90.8% 95.6% 95.0% Chesterfield County/Other 5 95.9% 92.5% 95.8% 94.3% North Chesterfield 6 95.8% 93.6% 95.1% 94.3% Petersburg 7 95.8% 96.9% 95.9% 93.6% South Chesterfield 8 95.4% 93.8% 94.2% 93.2% Southside/Westover Hills 9 94.9% 95.7% 94.7% 95.1% Hanover County 10 94.4% 95.1% 96.3% 95.6% Airport 11 94.3% 95.1% 95.1% 95.0% Northside/Laburnum 12 89.0% 91.1% 90.8% 91.3% Market Average 95.2% 94.4% 95.3% 94.5% *LTA - Long term average 1996 (or available) to current COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P.
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