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Richmond Feels the Pressure for Increased Housing Densities

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Richmond Feels the Pressure for Increased Housing Densities Research & Forecast Report RICHMOND Accelerating success. Q1 2017 | Multifamily Richmond Feels the Pressure for Increased Housing Densities NATIONAL The national investment sale activity showed a sharp decline in more apartments being built downtown and more apartments all real estate sectors in the first quarter of 2017, including the and townhouses being built in the suburbs. Andrew Florance, sale of institutional quality multi-family communities. Per Real Costar founder and CEO, stated recently at a ULI function that Capital Analytics, activity fell 35% YOY, primarily due to the lack Richmond currently has a shortage of nearly 20,000 residential of quality assets coming to the market. The lack of product has units and that there are only six existing units for every ten further stimulated cap rate compression, in turn increasing prices households in need of one. Despite that fact, per Florance, the and providing incentives for owners to reconsider their current Richmond area rental rates and incomes have kept a steady investment horizon. Also, Institutional investors are being drawn pace, unlike that in Primary and Gateway markets. from the Primary and Gateway markets to the Secondary and Tertiary The driving force behind this growth is the Millennial generation, markets in the pursuit of potentially higher yields. Richmond is one the country’s largest generation. Millennials have shown that of the markets benefiting from this action. they are partial to rental housing over ownership and Colliers RICHMOND International predicts that this trend will continue well into the future. Richmond is a prime example. Per Zillow, a Seattle- Richmond is feeling the pressure to increase residential densities based real estate and rental research firm, more Millennials live to accommodate the housing needs for a growing population of alone in Richmond than in any other major U.S. metro market, Millennials which are following new employers to Richmond. In most likely a reflection of the affordability of the rental market. Downtown Richmond alone, more than 300,000 SF of office Still, that will change without an influx of new housing. space was leased in the last six months to firms relocating from Washington DC and other primary cities in pursuit of the area’s lower Barriers to entry for new product are beginning to fall. Currently, cost of living and less expensive office rent. These include the there are about 3,000 new apartment units in lease up and CoStar Group, software developer AvePoint, medical supplier Owens another 4,800 new apartments in one stage of construction or & Minor, health care navigator Envera Health and retirement plan another. These new units have higher rent demands than the administrator ICMA-RC. existing inventory, providing opportunities for investments in the 1970’s, 1980’s and 1990’s vintage apartment communities where The Richmond region is expected to add 10,800 jobs in 2017. For 2018, improvements and updates have resulted in strong returns. there are 12,654 jobs forecasted, further increasing the likelihood of Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar MARKET METRICS Market Survey Results and Forecasts Sequential Month Annual 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Mar-17 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Effective Rent Per Unit $1,008 $1,010 $998 $1,007 $1,017 $971 $998 $1,029 $1,058 $1,084 $1,115 $1,157 Per Sq. Ft $1.11 $1.11 $1.10 $1.11 $1.12 $1.07 $1.10 $1.13 $1.16 $1.19 $1.22 $1.27 Effective Rent Growth - Annually 3.1% 2.9% 2.5% 3.0% 3.3% 2.3% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9% 2.4% 2.9% 3.7% Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 3.1% 0.2% -1.3% 1.0% Occupancy Rate 95.3% 95.2% 94.9% 94.8% 95.0% 94.5% 95.0% 95.1% 94.7% 94.1% 94.6% 95.1% Occupancy Change - Annually 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% -0.5% -0.6% 0.5% 0.5% Occupancy Change - Quarterly 0.8% 0.0% -0.3% -0.2% Economic Concessions Concession Value $-3.85 $-3.68 $-7.35 $-6.93 $-6.35 $-5.89 $-5.57 As a % of Asking Rent -0.4% -0.4% -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% SUPPLY AND DEMAND According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Richmond, VA Metro Area was 1.1% in March 2017, reflecting 7,500 jobs added during a 12-month period. Axiometrics forecasts Richmond, VA Metro Area’s job growth to be 1.9% in 2018, with 12,654 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.4% from 2019 to 2021, with an average of 9,979 jobs added each year. On the supply side, permits for 1,156 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in February 2017, up 405 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 5,383 units were permitted in the 12 months ending February 2017, an increase of 546 units from the prior year’s total. Market Employment and Permitting Annual February-17 Annual Forecast 2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Employment (000s) 633.3 651.5 664.3 661.9 144,271.0 674.7 687.4 696.2 705.1 717.3 Job Gain (000s) 10.7 18.1 12.8 6.8 2,352.0 10.4 12.7 8.8 8.9 12.2 Job Growth (%) 1.7% 2.9% 2.0% 1.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% Total Residential Permitting 4,330 4,858 4,837 5,037 1,101,437 5,694 7,740 6,722 6,431 5,527 Relative Change -10.4% 12.2% -0.4% 10.1% 0.3% 17.7% 35.9% -13.2% -4.3% -14.1% Single Family Units Permitted 3,199 3,602 3,955 3,753 702,275 Relative Change -5.5% 12.6% 9.8% 11.1% 9.0% Multifamily Units Permitted 1,006 1,154 751 1,146 368,649 Relative Change -26.1% 14.7% -34.9% 3.2% -12.8% Multifamily as a % of Total 23.2% 23.8% 15.5% 22.8% 33.5% Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.2 4.2 2.6 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.1 1.3 1.9 Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 3.2 5.7 3.6 2.0 3.7 Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 7.9 18.0 11.1 6.1 5.6 Multifamily Absorption and Supply Annual 1Q17 Annual Forecast 2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Total Units Absorbed 759 2,290 2,362 2,441 264,921 2,017 489 651 1,929 991 New Supply 1,224 1,865 2,109 2,082 350,515 1,862 1,364 1,252 1,018 838 Inventory Growth 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3 THE DEMAND SIDE • Richmond is a continually evolving and growing market. The MSA’s population grew 190K between 2000 and 2013 and is forecasted to grow 852K between 2012 and 2030. Out of the top 10 absolute growth markets in the US, Richmond was forecasted as the highest growth rate (68.4%) followed by Atlanta (45.6%) and San Antonio (36%). Not only does Richmond have an increasing population, but the majority of the individuals moving to the city are millennials, which are the pulse of the multifamily sector. Strict zoning and entitlements within the MSA help to further insulate the market from new supply, which in turn increases demand. Effective Rent Growth Ranking by Submarket Submarket Rank 1Q17 LTA* 2017 2018-2021 North Chesterfield 1 8.0% 3.5% 8.3% 3.2% Far West End 2 4.2% 2.6% 4.3% 3.2% South Chesterfield 3 4.2% 2.1% 2.5% 3.0% Near West End 4 4.0% 1.8% 3.6% 3.0% Chesterfield County/Other 5 3.9% 2.2% 2.6% 3.0% Downtown/The Fan 6 3.4% 2.5% 2.0% 3.1% Hanover County 7 3.0% 2.2% 3.1% 3.1% Petersburg 8 2.9% 1.3% 3.3% 2.9% Southside/Westover Hills 9 2.6% 1.8% 3.6% 3.1% Southside/Broadrock 10 0.5% 1.1% 1.7% 2.9% Airport 11 -0.1% 1.5% 3.7% 3.1% Northside/Laburnum 12 -1.9% 0.4% -0.6% 2.8% Market Average 2.9% 1.9% 3.2% 3.0% • The “Downtown/The Fan” submarket leads the region in occupancy despite the influx of new apartments, encompassing the Manchester and Scotts Addition urban core districts, which have a growing millennial population. The next few submarkets listed are beneficiaries of very restrictive land use controls in Henrico and Hanover County. Occupancy by Submarket Submarket Rank 1Q17 LTA* 2017 2018-2021 Downtown/The Fan 1 97.1% 96.8% 97.0% 96.0% Hanover County 2 96.5% 95.0% 96.0% 94.8% Far West End 3 96.1% 96.7% 96.1% 95.4% Near West End 4 95.8% 95.6% 95.9% 95.1% Airport 5 95.4% 95.3% 95.7% 95.2% Southside/Westover Hills 6 94.6% 92.3% 94.7% 93.8% Southside/Broadrock 7 94.4% 90.4% 94.3% 94.6% Chesterfield County/Other 8 94.4% 96.2% 95.2% 95.0% North Chesterfield 9 93.3% 93.1% 94.3% 94.3% Petersburg 10 93.0% 95.4% 93.2% 94.4% South Chesterfield 11 92.3% 91.2% 92.2% 91.7% Northside/Laburnum 12 91.6% 93.5% 92.3% 91.9% Market Average 94.5% 94.3% 94.8% 94.4% *LTA - Long term average 1996 (or available) to current COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P.
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