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Peru's Revolving Door of Political Parties Sargeant, Jadon 2017

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Introduction party system. This unique challenge is a direct result of the presidency of The year 2016 was an election year in Peru. from 1990 to 2000. Viewed as both hero and , commonly abbreviated tyrant, he is a polarizing figure in Peru’s past to PPK, became president by a narrow margin, who left in his wake a broken and ineffective running for the center-right party Peruvians political system. Not much has changed since for Change. However, only 20 percent of his impeachment and later imprisonment, but Peruvians can identify the president’s party. In the election of 2016 may hold clues that the Peru, politics is a profoundly personal endeavor political tides are finally beginning to change. where parties merely serve as vehicles for candidates to reach office and have short life Peru’s Tumultuous Political History spans. was founded in October 2014, and it is likely that it will suffer Typically, when a country has sustained the same fate as other political parties and not economic growth and limited civil unrest, outlive their leader’s political career. The past the government is viewed favorably by its five presidents have all come from different citizens. Not so in Peru. Despite the past 25 political parties, and none of them has won years of economic success and relative peace, reelection. In many cases the party fades away Transparency International consistently ranks as soon as the president falls out of favor. Peru last in Latin America for perception of In this article, I analyze Peru’s political both how well the government represents system, shedding light on the compromising the peoples’ views and how corrupt it is effect it has on Peru’s democracy as well as (“Corruption Perceptions Index: Peru”). In possible paths toward establishing a stronger short, Peruvians believe that their government 13 is failing them and is hopelessly corrupt. How not fully understand. Alberto Fujimori was a did this public relations nightmare come to be? Japanese-Peruvian university professor who The current state of government mistrust that burst onto the political scene in 1990 running is pervasive in Peruvian society today has been on an anti-terrorism campaign. He won the shaped by the country’s tumultuous political presidency and immediately implemented his history (Levitsky). “Fujishock” plan, which consisted of a series In the early twentieth century, Peru was of free-market reforms to combat the nation’s an ex-Spanish colony trying to sustain a stable hyperinflation. He also prioritized the defeat of democracy while relying on exporting silver the Shining Path over the rights of Peruvian and guano to build its economy. The growth citizens and granted immense power to his was steady until the 1960s, when a democracy’s chief of secret police, . worst fear occurred: General Jaun Velasco In 1992 Fujimori’s popularity skyrocketed staged a military coup and became dictator. after Guzmán was captured. Riding this wave General Velasco did not know how to run a of support in 1993, Fujimori disbanded the nation’s economy, and he instituted untested government and re-wrote the constitution land reform measures and nationalized most of (“Peru Historical…”). He asserted that he the large mining companies in Peru. These ill- was making the democracy of Peru stronger, advised actions led to an immediate economic claiming his action was “not a negation of real downturn that persisted throughout the series democracy, but on the contrary… a search of military takeovers and rigged elections that for an authentic transformation to assure a followed (“Peru Historical…”). legitimate and effective democracy” (as quoted In 1980 the Maoist terrorist organization in Smith, p. 236). His reforms seemed to be Sendero Luminoso, or the Shining Path, effective, as Peru’s economy became the fastest sabotaged the first election in 17 years by growing in the world during his presidency, burning all the ballots. To achieve its goals, with an annual GDP increase of 12 percent the leader of the Shining Path, Abimael (Brooke). He easily won reelection in 1995 Guzmán, authorized hyper-violent guerrilla despite accusations of bribery and controlling warfare tactics (Jasper and Seelke, p. 2). The the media. The Peruvian constitution at that Shining Path first took up residence in the time allowed presidents to have only two terms Andean regions of Peru, where its strict rules in office, yet Fujimori ran for a third in 2000, and harsh punishments brought much needed arguing that it would be only his second term stability to the farmers and herders who had under the new constitution. Accounts of gross lived without any law enforcement since the human rights violations by the secret police military revolutions of the 1960s. The Shining began to surface, causing Fujimori to barely win Path then began to spread into the capital of reelection under suspect circumstances. Shortly , where it sabotaged infrastructure and thereafter, incontrovertible evidence emerged indiscriminately killed non-supporters. The that Fujimori engaged in embezzlement, bribes, government gave increasingly unilateral power and other corrupt practices. He fled to Japan in to its police to combat the Shining Path, January 2000 and tried to resign, but Congress including the ability to detain and question impeached him instead. Fujimori stayed in anyone without cause. Government efforts Japan for five years until 2005, when he traveled were mostly unsuccessful, however, leaving to Chile in an effort to restart his political career. the country in a constant state of fear and He was arrested in Chile and extradited to Peru. turmoil at the start of the 1990 election (“Peru He was eventually convicted of human rights Historical…”). violations and sentenced to 25 years in prison Democracies that have widespread public (“Peru Historical…”). unrest and national security concerns are From 2000 to the present, Peru has uniquely vulnerable to dictatorship (Jasper and maintained a weak democracy and stayed the Seelke, p. 2). Increasing fear of terrorism and course of Fujimori’s macroeconomic policy, economic distress caused Peruvians to turn to continuing the economic growth that began an untested leader whose aspirations they did with his presidency (Santos and Werner, p. 14 19). Fujimori is a deeply controversial figure her party, including news that Congressman in Peruvians’ minds and the source of most of Joaquín Ramírez was under investigation by the distrust of the government. The presidents the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration following Fujimori have not been popular, and for connections to drug trafficking. PPK had the ones before him were military dictators. repeatedly cautioned the electorate that the He is widely believed to have steered the corruption and abuses of power associated Peruvian economy onto the right track and to with Keiko’s father’s authoritarian reign would have ended the reign of terror of the Shining return should she be elected. Additionally, Path, although his contribution to both a reluctant last-minute endorsement by accomplishments and the means he used are Verónika Mendoza, the third-place finisher hotly debated (Horler). He is also remembered in the first round of elections and champion for his authoritarian regime and corrupt of the leftist party, may have put administration. The only politician who can be PPK over the top by helping her voters choose plausibly credited with saving the country is between the conservative candidates. Mendoza currently in prison. Peruvians’ cynicism with told her supporters that PPK was the lesser of regard to their government can be attributed two evils, saying, “Only by voting for Kuczynski to the controversial rise and fall of Fujimori. can we close the path towards Fujimorismo” Mistrust of politicians has been a barrier (as quoted in Wang). to the formation of modern political parties Keiko has reluctantly accepted these in Peru. Political parties have tended to have results, saying that she was defeated by short life spans, with the two most common “promoters of hate” (as quoted in “Peru ideologies Fujimorismo and its opposite anti- Elections…”). She promises to continue to Fujimorismo. The former ideology is in favor of work on her political agenda through the Fujimori’s economic and political tactics, while legislative branch, where her party controls the latter is fiercely opposed. Although political 73 of the 130 seats in Congress. PPK’s party, parties themselves form and disband quickly, Peruvians for Change, holds 18 seats (Post). these two worldviews are always the focal point It was founded as recently as October 2014. of any debate (Levitsky and Cameron, p. 22). The few seats that the party holds in Congress indicate that PPK’s victory in the presidential Peru’s 2016 Presidential Election election was more due to the strength of the The presidential election of 2016 took anti-Fujimorismo ideology than the strength place in two phases. First, a vote was held in of his own party. April to select two finalists from a plethora of , the Fujimorismo party, is candidates running with the support of the the closest thing that Peru has to a modern diverse political parties in Peru. None other . It has existed since the downfall than , the daughter of the now- of Alberto Fujimori. Its newfound majority imprisoned Alberto Fujimori, ran for president in Congress allows it to make political and won the first election in April with roughly moves despite its loss in the presidential race 40 percent of the vote. Also making it to the (Horler). Seat allocation in Peruvian Congress run-off election was PPK, a respected financier. follows the d’Hondt method for proportional Keiko Fujimori ran on the ticket of the representation, which stipulates that a party Popular Force party and PPK represented the must have above five percent support to win Peruvians for Change party. The two finalists any seats in Congress. The result is that most then competed head-to-head in a June run-off of the seats that would go to the smaller parties election to determine the next president. Keiko are instead allocated to the largest party, in Fujimori was ahead in the polls for most of the this instance Popular Force (Carey, p. 3). lead up to the June 5th election date, but PPK The d’Hondt method has long been criticized narrowly defeated her by the miniscule margin for awarding huge seat bonuses to already of 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent. This surprising established parties (Taagepera and Shugart, upset of Keiko was attributed to a series of pp. 86–87). Had Peru employed a directly scandals involving the senior members of proportional representation system, Popular 15 Force would have won 53 seats in Congress, benefit of political parties is that they must which would be a small plurality. Then PPK actually last longer than any single politician. could have made alliances with the smaller The problem in Peru is that parties are so parties to get the necessary votes to move short-lived that they cannot plan future policy his economic and social plan forward. Under any better than politicians. the current government, if he wants to pass Parties also provide an avenue for social anything through Congress he will have to unrest to be addressed. The two greatest threats compromise with Keiko. Some of her more to a democracy’s stability are a fearful economic controversial stances and areas where PPK elite and an angry worker class. Powerful may have to accommodate her are freeing her socioeconomic players do anything to protect father from prison, supporting illegal mining their business interests. This means that if in the Amazon, and increasing powers of police their wishes are not effectively represented in the fringe regions of Peru (Wang). in the current government, they will turn to other non-democratic alternatives (Levitsky Importance of Political Parties and Cameron, pp. 3-4). They can support military takeovers and appoint figureheads Established political parties serve several to keep their assets safe. Thus, for example, key functions in a democracy. They help the a strong right-wing party is an important electorate determine what a candidate’s stances element of a democracy. It provides business are on each issue. Instead of painstakingly owners with a delivery system for their ideas learning about each politician, voters can within the existing democracy. Additionally, a use the party platforms and reputations to strong labor-based party can help protect the decide whom they want to elect. Parties rights of the working class. A labor party is able provide a shortcut to voters, who can now to pass reforms and make workers feel that feel confident that they know what to expect their government is looking out for them. This from any given candidate based on his party alleviates tension and helps prevent extreme affiliations (Dargent and Muñoz, pp. 48–49). actions like strikes and revolutions (Dargent In the absence of political parties, becoming an educated voter is infinitely more difficult. and Muñoz, p. 52). Sifting through the often unofficial stances Another way that political parties protect of a plethora of independent or new party democracy is by facilitating the system of checks candidates is frustrating and inefficient. Voters and balances to limit the power of the executive have no past experiences with a party on branch. In most countries, the executive which to base their expectations. People may branch is the most prone to corruption and quickly become disillusioned with this political authoritarian leanings. The large amount of chore and develop pessimistic attitudes power consolidated in one individual makes toward government in general. This distrust it a common area of democratic deviance. of government is exactly what is observed in The legislature must fulfill its oversight duty Peru. and quickly strike down an action or impeach Another key aspect of political parties a president who begins to abuse his power is that they make democracy viable for the (Levitsky and Cameron, p. 3). The presence politicians as well. Politicians’ most important of organized and watchful political parties goal is to be reelected. This makes them allows the legislature to take action much inherently short-sighted with policies, rarely faster than if it were composed of unorganized planning beyond the next election cycle. and disconnected independents. In case the Politicians are especially bad at taking short- legislative branch fails, the parties can rally term risks for long-term rewards because they their faithful members and trigger public might not be around when the investment outcry to combat the executive’s actions. finally pays off (Tanaka, p. 56). Political parties, It is also much harder for inexperienced on the other hand, last beyond individual and unqualified politicians to get elected elections and thus are better equipped to plan when political parties are strong. Parties long-term policy. The obvious caveat to this serve as gatekeepers to public offices, helping 16 qualified and vetted politicians get elected. candidates usually claim that they are not When positions in government are filled by career politicians; they are simply concerned members of established parties, there are fewer citizens. They apply their business acumen and opportunities for amateur politicians to be fix the discord in government. They are not elected. Partisan politicians are not flawless, beholden to any corporate or party interests. but outsiders are far more likely to sabotage These claims are consistently used to great the democratic process. They often have no effect by amateur politicians, and Fujimori training in the rules of government and do was no exception. The Peruvian people saw not value democratic institutions. They have what an effective leader Fujimori was initially, trouble compromising to form alliances with although many of his accomplishments were other policy makers and resort to strong-arm due to his circumnavigating the democratic tactics and overt threats (Tanaka, p. 58). These process rather than working through it. They unpredictable leaders are not beholden to then latched onto the mentality that outsiders any outside organizations and act recklessly. are preferable to politicians. Democracies are much more stable when The newfound distrust of politicians led parties filter the candidates down to those who to a large-scale exodus from the few political share their core values, one of which is the parties of the time. Candidates realized the preservation of democracy in the first place. stigma that was now attached to political parties and sought to re-brand themselves Destruction of Peru’s Political Parties as independents. An example of this was the longtime member of the center-right Christian Peru has experienced the danger of political People’s Party, Alberto Andrade, who defected outsiders firsthand. Alberto Fujimori was not to become an independent in to run a politician, but rather a university professor. for mayor of Lima in 1995 while famously The inner workings of government revolve saying, “No candidate affiliated with a party around negotiation and compromise. These had a chance of winning the mayorality of are topics that may be foreign to a professor Lima” (as quoted in “Levitsky and Cameron, without experience navigating the political system. Fujimori quickly became frustrated p. 11”). Andrade’s strategy was successful, and when the implementation of his national policy he won the election. This laid the blueprint was much harder to enact than he expected for other politicians, and almost overnight (“Peru Historical…”). Having no ties to the the established political parties melted away. system of governance, he had no qualms about This had the unintended consequence of voiding the constitution and replacing it with also destroying any accountability that the one more suitable for his vision. legislature could have on Fujimori. Fujimori was not just a symptom of a Without parties to unify the Peruvian democracy lacking political parties, but he Congress, its members were uncoordinated was also the cause leading to modern parties’ and unprepared to act as a check on Fujimori’s difficulty in becoming established today. Early executive power. The people took notice of this in his presidency, he was extremely popular. also. Near the end of Fujimori’s presidency, as The defeat of the Shining Path and the control the corruption became more apparent, cries of hyperinflation made his approval rating rise surfaced for the old parties in Congress to take to 66 percent and earned him some leeway with action to curb his power. At this point it was far the people for his unconventional authoritarian too late, and the few remaining members loyal style. This early success popularized the idea to the political establishment were unable to of independent candidates because Fujimori do anything. Fujimori’s regime eventually did himself had run as an independent candidate. collapse, but its demise was a self-destruction The Peruvian people began to internalize and had nothing to do with outside resistance. Fujimori’s arguments in favor of amateur The powerlessness of political parties to politicians. There are several familiar talking stop Fujimori is remembered to this day, points that are brought up any time political and Peruvians do not see political parties as outsiders run for office. These often charismatic a safeguard to democracy. After Fujimori’s 17 resignation in 2001, an emergency election Assuming that Peru’s government is had to be held to elect a new president. motivated to strengthen parties, how could Despite the near collapse of democracy that it make progress? To answer this question, ensued from the last political outsider they one must first look at the roots of historically elected, Peruvians chose , strong political parties. Parties typically form an amateur politician who, like Fujimori, in Latin America during times of great division had never held public office. The failures of in a country’s history. The most powerful and established political channels to stop Fujimori longstanding parties in Colombia, Uruguay, were fresh in the peoples’ minds, and another and Costa Rica formed in the midst of civil independent seemed preferable. It is this legacy wars. Similarly, the political parties of Mexico, of mistrust that persists today and hinders the Venezuela, and Argentina became established establishment of lasting political parties in immediately after changes in voting laws Peru. created a large influx of new voters. Finally, social revolutions in Nicaragua and Bolivia Party-forming Problems and Policies resulted in the founding of their parties. Without these dramatic events laying the In countries with established political foundation for political parties, Latin America parties, when a new issue arises (such as an has seldom seen new parties have long-term impending war or negotiations with labor success (Dargent and Muñoz, p. 65). unions) the parties gauge the public’s opinion Peru also faces some unique demographic and choose sides. But in Peru parties are often and structural challenges in the formation based around a single issue and may not take of a strong party system. The geographic a stance when a new problem presents itself. separation between the three regions in Sometimes an entirely new party forms with Peru (desert, Andes, and Amazon) limits the emerging dispute as its center point. In the capability of national parties to meet the contrast, the mark of a strong political party needs of each group. Typically, Latin American is that it can adapt to changing circumstances countries are able to form a strong party based and persist throughout many elections. In the previous section I enumerated the benefits of on the working class. Peru has seen no such strong political parties to a democracy, but party form, as the lifestyles and cultures of the what can Peru do to help establish parties? In people in the three regions are not sufficiently this section I explain the party-building process uniform for common interests to bind them and evaluate Peru’s available options. together. Also, ongoing citizenship issues The first issue to contend with is the with indigenous peoples make all forms of very real possibility that Peruvian politicians social inclusion difficult, including voting. simply do not want more-established parties. The indigenous peoples have thus far opted to The elected officials in power have managed distance themselves from the greater Peruvian to succeed under the current party-less government rather than participate actively in atmosphere and thus may be comfortable the political system. Appealing to all members with the status quo. Additionally, many of of the heterogeneous populace is difficult for a these politicians founded their own parties as party. candidate-centered vehicles just before their Another obstacle to party-building elections, thus avoiding any oversight that efforts in Peru is the lack of institutional candidates in established parties must contend infrastructure. Before the existence of radio, with. Despite strong parties being beneficial television, and the Internet, politicians had to for democracy, these “independents” have organize large-scale networks to communicate little incentive to change the current system with voters (Tanaka, p. 62). They would put a (Levitsky and Cameron, p. 8). This paradox major emphasis on building a geographically of personal benefit versus democratic benefit based ground game to rally support. With the is exactly what makes parties so important. advent of modern communications systems, Parties can see beyond individual rewards to politicians no longer need to establish these help democracy as a whole. community engagement networks because 18 they can communicate through mass media. The aforementioned d’Hondt method of seat Independent politicians are enabled by these allocation means that parties must pass a five- readily available modes of communication percent threshold to win any seats. The few (Dargent and Muñoz, p. 69). Highly structured small parties that have reached out to rural party machinery is not necessary to reach Peru seldom pass the five-percent barrier voters, and there is little incentive to build and therefore do not gain any seats for their connections with communities because the efforts. In short, the electoral rules essentially party may not survive until the next election. In disenfranchise large swaths of Peru and this way technological advances have actually discourage political participation. thwarted progress toward established parties. The final impediment to strong political Implications of the 2016 Election parties in Peru is the electoral rules. The current system discourages party formation Several researchers, such as Harvard’s through a variety of means. In a presidential Steven Levitsky and Martín Tanaka of The election, Peruvians directly elect a president Catholic University of Peru, published by a majority of the popular vote. This is the research articles in the early 2000s examining simplest method of election and ensures that the strange party-less government in post- Fujimori Peru. These researchers evaluated the every person’s vote counts equally. But it also possible paths toward party establishment and means that there is no incentive to appeal concluded that there are limited opportunities to people living in rural areas (Jackson and and a bleak outlook. In the 15 years since their Moselle, p. 68). Most other countries use writing, Peru has mostly confirmed these some form of indirect election, such as an predictions insofar as strong parties have yet electoral college. Voters choose electors who to form. As a result, Peruvians’ satisfaction then vote for the president. Each region of the with democracy is among the lowest in Latin country is assigned a number of electors, thus America (“Corruption Perceptions Index: forcing candidates to appeal to every region as Peru”). Additionally, a survey conducted opposed to just the major population centers. by the polling agency Americas Barometer An electoral college incentivizes the creation gauged citizens’ trust in current political of inroads into regional communities and parties from 2006 until 2014. Over that eight- prevents the needs of large geographic areas year span, trust dropped from 19.4 percent from being ignored. To reach these areas and trusting political parties to only 9.95 percent, to win the electoral votes of fringe regions, the second lowest in Latin America (Cohen). significant investment into party infrastructure This result does not inspire confidence that must be made (Jackson and Moselle, p. 73). As the political party carousel is nearing an end. it stands now, however, in Peru these areas However, there are some positives to take from are mostly ignored, and parties do not need to the recent election that may point toward a devote resources to building party roots. shift. Verónika Mendoza told her supporters to The Peruvian Congress is also elected based vote for PPK in a successful effort to prevent on a directly proportional representational Keiko Fujimori from taking office. This is system (with a few exceptions). Again, seats by no means an alliance between these two in Congress are not awarded to the winners parties that have very different ideologies, but of certain smaller races but are awarded the fact that it was successful demonstrates an proportionally to parties based on popular increase in party polarization. Extreme dislike vote. In Peru, the people do not directly vote of one party can serve as a stepping stone to for the seats in Congress but rather vote for coalition building and, eventually, to party a party, which then chooses the politician to establishment. Another sign of progress in Peru take the seat. This system has an effect similar is the strength of Verónika Mendoza’s Broad to the direct election of the president in that Front party. The political left in Peru has never it discourages reaching out to the fringe recovered from the atrocities committed by areas of Peruvian society and instead rewards the Shining Path. It has been fighting a stigma parties that focus on population centers. ever since and has never had much success in 19 either presidential or parliamentary elections. low numbers of invalid ballots. This increase in Former President , from 2011 party polarization may help change elections in to 2016, ran on a platform of social inclusion Peru from personally driven to party driven. but was also fiscally conservative and expanded free-market protections. Broad Front is the Conclusion first truly leftist party to win 20 seats or more in Congress since 2000. Most stable party systems The lack of established political parties has in Latin America have successful parties on not changed much since Fujimori resigned in both ends of the . A majority 2000. The past 15 years have mostly confirmed of Peru’s political parties have thus far favored what many researchers predicted, as strong the right. A successful leftist party will increase political parties have not emerged. However, voter satisfaction with the available options the elections in 2016 did produce a few results and in turn decrease resentment toward the that could mean change is coming. The political system (Lozada). emergence of a purely leftist party that had a Another indicator of progress from this strong candidate in the presidential election past election is the percentage of blank or and that now holds 20 seats in Congress is a invalid ballots. Invalid votes are those that first in Peruvian politics. This past election also cannot be counted because of clerical errors on displayed a new level of polarization as evidenced the ballot. In countries with mandatory voting by Verónika Mendoza’s endorsement of PPK laws, like Peru, invalid ballots are viewed as because she was so opposed to Keiko Fujimori. protest votes and represent dissatisfaction with This trend of heightened party affiliation is also the choices. Peru has one of the highest rates demonstrated by the sharp decrease of invalid of invalid ballots in Latin America (Cohen). votes in the presidential election. People may The rates in Congressional elections and first- be beginning to form stronger opinions about round presidential elections have not changed their choices. This is the first step to these much since 2001, but the invalid ballot rate parties being able to persist. There are plenty of for the second round of presidential elections obstacles to party longevity still in place. Direct has been steadily dropping, from 11.0 percent elections, a positive view of independents, and in 2001 to 5.7 percent in 2016 (“Republic of citizenship rights issues all pose challenges for Peru”). In Latin America, there is a correlation party establishment. However, this election is between how strong the party system is and the first in 15 years to offer any hope of change.

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