fmso.leavenworth.army.mil Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 6 Issue #7 OEWATCH July 2016 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT IRAN-RUSSIA Relations SPECIAL ESSAY:see pg. 62-68 TURKEY INDO-PACIFIC ASIA RUSSIA, UKRAINE 3 The PKK and MANPADs: A Game Changer 22 India’s NAVIC Constellation Is Underway 38 Fleshing Out the Details of Reintroducing Divisions 4 ISIS Targeting Turkey with Katyusha Rockets 24 Space Age Clothing for Indian Soldiers at High 40 Innovation, Cost, and Compromise Regarding the 5 Turkey Opens Military Base in Qatar Altitudes “God of War” 25 Fighting Piracy in the Sulu Sea Through a Subregional 42 Russia Successfully Tests Hypersonic Glide Vehicle for MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Agreement ICBMs 6 Iran: Chinese Eye Port of Chabahar 26 Terrorism Expert: Jemaah Islamiya Poses a Greater Threat 44 Russia’s Near-Term Asymmetric Response to the 7 Iran: Kurdish Insurgents on the Upsurge than ISIS to Southeast Asia BMD- the Iskander 8 Iran: IRGC Debuts New Explosives Plant 27 President-Elect Duterte’s Approach to Peace in 46 Russian Electronic Warfare Equipment and Personnel 9 Water Scarcity and Conflict: Yemen, Egypt, and Saudi Mindanao Developments Arabia 28 Can Indonesia Spread its Version of Moderate Islam 48 Tank Combat Support Vehicle “Terminator-3” on an 10 Turkistan Islamic Party Makes its Mark on the Syrian Internationally? Armata Chassis? Rebellion 29 Indonesian Official: Southeast Asia is Becoming the New 49 Georgian Perspectives on Armenia-Azerbaijan 11 Tunnels and Refugees: Can ISIS Breach Jordan’s Somalia for Piracy Conflict and Russia’s Position Borders? 30 Southern Thailand Peace Talk Hit Another Bump in the 50 Armenian Officials Reassure the Public about Military Road Effectiveness AFRICA 52 Armenian Views on Russia’s Peacemaking Efforts in 12 New Insurgent Group Emerges in Niger Delta CHINA, KOREA, JAPAN Karabakh 13 New Nigerian Insecurity: Nomads v. Farmers 31 The PLA Bans Commercial Activity as Part 53 A Cyber Component to the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict 14 As AQIM Attacks Increase, Ghana Prepares for the of its Ongoing Military Reform 54 Will the White Swan Modernize? Worst 32 China Looks at Hyperloop Technology for Possible 56 Jamming for Business 15 Fulanis Caught Between Militants and the Malian Army Military Applications 57 A Semi-Frozen Conflict in SE Ukraine? 33 Chinese Military Works on Implementation of Stratagem 58 From Russia with Hate LATIN AMERICA Training 59 Airborne Arctic Searchlight for Helicopter Gunships 16 La Linea Cartel in Possession of a Guided Missile 34 China Exerts Counterterrorism Pressure in Southeast and Transports Launcher [Redeye MANPADS] Asia 60 A Not-too-Subtle Warning about NATO Membership 17 Lawfare Reaching Colombian Altitudes 61 Russian and CSTO Airborne Drops on North Pole Ice 18 Spanish Elections and Venezuelan Failure EUROPE Floe 18 Venezuela Now Upheaving 35 Canadian Visas Keep Bulgaria and Romania from 62 New Armored Vehicles and Heavy Artillery for the 19 MS-13 in Honduras Matures as it Seeks International Approving Economic Deal Russian Airborne Troops 63 Russia Building Barguzin Rail-Based Missile Status CENTRAL ASIA Components 20 Nicaraguan Purchase of Russian Military Equipment 36 Kazakhstan and the Economic Importance 63 Russia Upset over US Missile Defense Elements in Eastern Raises Concerns about Regional Arms Race of the Defense Sector Europe 21 Mexico to Participate in Peacekeeping in Colombia 37 Small Unit Tactics in Kyrgyzstan The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine OEWATCH Command G-2’s Operational Environment Foreign News & Perspectives Enterprise and for 30 years has conducted of the Operational Environment open source research on foreign Volume 6 | Issue 7 July | 2016 perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are Regional Analysts and understudied or unconsidered. Expert Contributors Operational Environment Watch provides Turkey Karen Kaya translated selections and analysis from Middle East/North Africa Michael Rubin a diverse range of foreign articles and Lucas Winter other media that our analysts and expert Africa Jason Warner contributors believe will give military Jacob Zenn and security professionals an added Latin America Robert Bunker dimension to their critical thinking about Alma Keshavarz the Operational Environment. Geoff Demarest Brenda Fiegel Kevin Freese Materials, outside of the original foreign press article, under copyright have not been used. All articles published Indo-Pacific Asia Kevin Freese in the Operational Environment Watch are not provided Anthony Ortiz in full, and were originally published in foreign (non-US) media. China, Korea, Japan Cindy Hurst Tim Thomas FMSO has provided some editing, format, and graphics Jacob Zenn to these articles to conform to organizational standards. Academic conventions, source referencing, and citation Europe Alyssa Jackson style are those of the author. The views expressed are those of the author and Central Asia Matthew Stein do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the Russia, Ukraine Chuck Bartles Anna Borshchevskaya US Government. Release of this information does not Ray Finch imply any commitment or intent on the part of the US Les Grau Government to provide any additional information on any Emily Kangas topic presented herein. Matthew Stein The Operational Environment Watch is archived and Tim Thomas available at: http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil. Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Editors Ray Finch Contact FMSO at: Harry Orenstein [email protected] Design Editor Padric Hall ON THE COVER: Iran leader along with Vladimir Putin & cabinet. Sources: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Supreme_leader_of_Iran_receives_ Russian_President_Vladimir_Putin_in_Tehran.jpg TURKEY Top Cyber Attacks, Russia and NATO’s Article 5 “...Cyber attacks, which constitute an important part of Russia’s hybrid war concept, will be categorized as part of Europe’s collective defense; and [such] hybrid threats managed from the Kremlin will be fought [against] accordingly.” Source: “NATO’dan Rus saldırganlığına karşı siber savunma hamlesi” (NATO’s cyber defense move against Russian aggression), OE Watch Commentary: On 14 June, during the NATO ABhaber.com, 15 June 2016, http://www.abhaber.com/natodan-rus- saldirganligina-karsi-siber-savunma-hamlesi/ Defense Ministers meeting in Brussels, an important decision was made, reflecting NATO’s efforts to adapt to changing warfare and “NATO decided to categorize cyber defense as an operational security threats: cyber was categorized as an operational domain, domain; in addition to deploying four battalions to Estonia, Latvia, and the ministers decided that a cyber attack can invoke NATO’s Lithuania and Poland against Russia. Article 5 on collective defense. Turkey, which has been subject ... to cyber attacks from Russia, was particularly interested in the The NATO Secretary General declared that the concept of “cyber decision. The accompanying passages from the Turkish press domain” was also on NATO’s agenda and said that the cyber domain discuss this issue. would be accepted as a domain similar to sea, air and land, and be As the first passage discusses, the two main outcomes accepted as part of collective defense. He also said that a cyber attack of the NATO defense ministers meeting were NATO’s decision may necessitate the implementation of the famous Article 5 (collective defense). to categorize cyber defense as an operational domain and to deploy new battalions to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Accordingly, cyber attacks, which constitute an important part of On the issue of the cyber domain, the passage points out NATO Russia’s hybrid war concept, will be categorized as part of Europe’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s comments that cyber would collective defense and [such] hybrid threats managed from the Kremlin will be fought [against] accordingly.” now be accepted as a domain similar to sea, air and land, and be considered part of collective defense, and that such attacks would invoke NATO’s Article 5 on collective defense, which says that an Source: “Rusya’nın ‘karma savaşı’ mercek altında” (Russia’s “hybrid war” under the microscope), Konhaber.com, 8 June 2016, http:// armed attack against one shall be considered an attack against all. www.konhaber.com/haber-analiz_rusya_nin_karma_savasi_mercek_ The passage also notes that cyber attacks “constitute an important altinda-552732.html part of Russia’s hybrid war concept,” and will be “fought [against] accordingly.” The new decision to include cyber in this scope “Russia, who lost the Cold War, is conducting a “hybrid war” which points to the changing definition of “armed attack.” includes simultaneous use of many elements from disinformation propaganda to covert military operations to cyber attacks on the West. The second passage discusses what it terms Russia’s ... “hybrid war” tactics, which include simultaneous use of many Another leg of Russia’s “hybrid war” are military operations that elements ranging from disinformation propaganda and covert Russia conducts without officially using their conventional army. military operations to cyber attacks against the West. The passage [Russia’s] methods in Ukraine and Crimea are examples of this.” notes that Russia conducts military operations without using its conventional army, pointing to its actions in Ukraine and Crimea.