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S&P Global Platts September 2019 Asian refiners gear South African gold Trade tensions and up for IMO 2020 mining under pressure commodity flows The changing face of energy Information alone isn’t informative. Add insight. Our unrivaled insight and analysis, alongside our independent price benchmarks and supply chain dynamics, bring clarity and transparency to the energy and commodities markets, enabling you to spot trends and uncover new commercial opportunities. #SPGPlattsInsight Visit platts.com/insights Insight ISSN 2153-1528 (print) Contributors ISSN 2153-1536 (online) Publisher Murray Fisher, +1 720 264 6644 [email protected] Dania Shi Yun Meghan Editor EL Saadi Fan Gordon Senior Editor, Associate Editor, Senior Writer, Emma Slawinski, +44 (0)20 7176 0365 Middle East LNG Oil [email protected] Copy Editors Alisdair Bowles, James Burgess, Keiron Greenhalgh, James Leech Siobhan Paul Sebastian Production Manager Hall Hickin Lewis David Sullivan, +44 (0)20 7176 0268 Senior Editor, Associate Content Director, [email protected] Energy Policy Editorial Director China Production Office Platts Insight Magazine 1800 Larimer, Suite 2000 Denver, CO 80202 JY Lim Jim Jeffrey Advertising Sales – Americas Advisor, Magill Moore Bob Botelho, +1 720 264 6618 Oil Markets, Senior Editor, Manager, [email protected] Analytics Generating Fuels Analytics Advertising Sales – EMEA, Asia-Pacific Sheryl Tan, +65 6216 1191 [email protected] Mark Surabhi Filip Pengelly Sahu Warwick Article Reprints & Permissions Editorial Lead, Senior Editor, Reporter, The YGS Group, Digital Content Bunker Fuels Metals and Mining +1 717 505 9701, ext 105 [email protected] Subscribe free at: spglobal.com/insight S&P Global Platts Harry Maya Kang 20 Canada Square, 9th Floor Weber Weber Wu London, E14 5LH, UK Senior Writer, Editor, Head of Analytics, Natural Gas Generating Fuels Asia President Martin Fraenkel Global Head of Market Insight Sarah Cottle Eric Jing Oceana Global Head of Pricing Yep Zhang Zhou Senior Editor, Senior Analyst Senior writer, Dave Ernsberger Energy News Metals Oil Global Head of Analytics Chris Midgley Contents September 2019 8 27 32 8 IMO 2020: Are Asian refineries ready? 32 #ChangePays in energy Asia could capitalize on the upcoming shift in oil product S&P Global presents a special report on gender diversity in flows, despite challenges of rising costs the global energy industry. Drawing on original research, and featuring interviews with women leaders blazing a trail through 16 Insight Conversation: Jane Ren, Atomiton the sector, S&P Global charts the progress made already and the challenges that remain. Insights on the Industrial Internet of Things and other rising technologies that could disrupt the energy sphere 62 China’s quest for balance 22 Trading up: Fujairah’s plan for growth S&P Global Platts assesses the impact of China’s supply-side reforms in the oil and steel sectors Diversification is the watchword for the Middle Eastern bunker hub, as it looks to rival Rotterdam and Singapore 66 The trouble with tariffs 26 South African gold loses its shine The US-China tussle over trade has altered commodity flows and now threatens to impact wider demand Rising production costs and labor disputes are slashing profitability of South Africa’s gold mines 4 Insight September 2019 66 80 72 Small-scale LNG making market inroads 88 Opening up Small-scale LNG terminals are multiplying in the US, poised to Asia’s gas markets are opening up, inviting new participants into take advantage of domestic and export markets the LNG sector and greater liquidity 78 Insight from Brussels 92 Insight from Shanghai Europe’s gas industry hopes “green” trading certificates will help Could China seize the opportunity of IMO 2020 to boost its secure the fuel’s future in the energy mix footprint in bunker markets? 80 Uncharted waters 95 S&P Global Platts Top 250 Energy Company Rankings The shipping industry is deep into preparations for IMO 2020, but some unknowns remain European energy firms seized market power in 2018, capitalizing on record growth in energy consumption 86 Insight from Washington As President Trump keeps tariffs front and center of his trade strategy, US petroleum exporters show pragmatism September 2019 Insight 5 Editor’s Note Economic warning signals rang out in succession throughout August – from lackluster industrial data in the US, to negative growth in the first quarter in the UK and Germany. At present, there is little suggestion of an impending economic catastrophe on the scale of the 2008 financial crisis, but analysts are beginning to factor in a higher risk of recession. S&P Global Platts Analytics downgraded its forecast for 2019 oil demand growth to 1.05 million-1.10 million b/d in August, rising to 1.3 million b/d in 2020. However, Platts Analytics has also developed a “Recession Scenario” that sees demand growth slowing to 0.9 million b/d in 2019 and to 0.6 million b/d in 2020. In the absence of a recession, Platts Analytics still points to bullish factors that could help benchmark oil prices recover in late 2020, not least the International Maritime Organization’s switch to lower sulfur fuels from January 1. Emma Slawinski Beyond short-term matters of supply, demand and price, there is the thornier question of what Editor lower confidence in the global economy could do to investment – not only in oil but also across the energy mix – and how that could shape the future of our energy consumption. According to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Investment 2019 report, investment in upstream oil and gas supply has been relatively stable for the last three years, following a drop between 2014 and 2016. The agency warned that investment in energy supply will need to rise to meet future demand. Spending on low-carbon power generation, in particular, is falling behind that needed to meet climate goals enshrined in the Paris Agreement, it said. Efforts to transition to low-carbon energy systems could be more vulnerable if governments rein in spending on support schemes, or research and development. Private investment in renewables could suffer too. “Renewables are becoming more and more exposed to merchant risks,” said Bruno Brunetti, global head of power planning at Platts Analytics. “As more developers rely on market revenues, cyclically lower fuel and power prices could undermine projected merchant revenues, discouraging investments.” The coming year will also test the individual strategies of integrated oil and gas companies, such as Shell and ExxonMobil, respectively first and second in S&P Global Platts Top 250 Energy Company Rankings (see page 91). In their latest investor presentations, both said they would increase capital expenditures in the coming years, but they diverge in their approach to the energy transition. While Shell is placing a sizable bet on electricity, ExxonMobil is pinning its hopes on fast growth downstream in chemicals, a sector it expects to deliver above-GDP growth for the foreseeable future. There may be space for both approaches to pay off. In addition to economic pressures, energy companies are facing a workforce crisis precipitated by demographic shifts and changing aspirations among the brightest and most talented young graduates. This realization should help to create overdue improvements in diversity, an issue explored in our special report, #ChangePays in energy (page 32). Harnessing S&P Global’s essential data, insights and analytics, the report examines progress towards a more inclusive energy sector, and brings together stories from women leaders who are determined to drive deep change in the industry, helping to ensure its resilience to future challenges. [email protected] 6 Insight September 2019 Best of the Rest Our website spglobal.com/platts contains an extensive selection of free news, videos, podcasts and special reports about energy and commodities. Here’s a small selection of recent highlights Special report New Horizons: The forces shaping the future of the LNG market As new flexible supply and demand challenge traditional LNG business models, and the trend towards commoditization gathers pace, what lies ahead? S&P Global Platts’ report features analysis, infographics and interviews with the IEA’s Fatih Birol and IGU’s Joe M. Kang. Special report Podcast Global petrochemical outlook H2 2019 Could flaring hinder the US oil revolution? Amid trade tensions and the emergence of China’s Gas flaring in the US is climbing, as midstream new mega refineries, how will global petrochemical companies struggle to keep pace with gas markets evolve? S&P Global Platts production by building new editors analyze trade flows, supply gathering lines and processing and demand fundamentals and plants. What is being done to price trends across key products. reduce flaring and will current regulatory efforts be enough? Video Insight Conversation: Jerome Leprince-Ringuet, Total Marine Fuels Total Marine Fuels global solutions managing director Jerome Leprince-Ringuet offers his views on the changes and challenges for shipping and bunkering industries as they head into the final phase of preparations for the January 1 IMO 2020 deadline. Podcast Shale and LNG shape outlook for IOCs Oil majors are wrestling with spending discipline and global economic weakness in the near term, and the energy transition question further out. Editors from S&P Global Platts and S&P Global Market Intelligence analyze recent financial results and contrasting strategies of global energy giants including ExxonMobil, Shell and Total. September 2019 Insight 7 IMO 2020: Are Asian refineries ready? The upcoming change in global standards for marine fuels will transform oil product flows. Asia is well placed to capitalize on the shift, despite the challenges of rising costs and oil prices, write JY Lim and Kang Wu of S&P Global Platts Analytics 8 Insight September 2019 September 2019 Insight 9 IMO 2020: Are Asian refineries ready? he refining industry is on the brink of a major shift in the demand structure of T bunker fuels, and refiners are making plans to meet changing product demand brought about by the IMO 2020 deadline.
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