Adding the Subnational Dimension to the Systematic Analysis of the Longevity Revolution Opportunities and challenges in establishing a subnational Human Mortality Database Sebastian Klüsener, Rembrandt Scholz, Pavel Grigoriev, Dmitri Jdanov, Vladimir Shkolnikov

Motivation

- Human Mortality Database has substantially contributed to our understanding of cross-national variation in the longevity revolution

- But in many countries, national-level data is likely to mask substantial within-country variation

 Explore the potential for a Subnational Human Mortality Database - MPIDR: - University of Berkeley: USA

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What is to be gained?

- The subnational perspective allows to identify vanguard and laggard regions within countries, and how their position has shifted over time

- Access to subnational data for many countries would allow to explore whether mortality variation was/is characterized by variation between and/or within countries (role of national-level processes vs. regional processes such as lifestyles)

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What is to be gained from Regional Data for Germany?

• A spatially detailed look at East-West convergence and divergence as part of the cardiovascular revolution (really just lagging East vs. advancing West?)

• Examine whether the rise of South Germany as a vanguard region of the longevity revolution occurred in Germany at a similar time as the rise of the South in Europe

MPIDR 5 Regional Data for Germany

Focus on three different series: 1. Bundesländer 1982-today (Single ages, at least 90+)

2. GDR Bezirke 1963-1989 (5Y-age groups, 90-100+)

3. West German Bundesländer & East Berlin (1946)/1951-1980 (Single ages/5Y-age groups)

MPIDR 6 Challenges

- General: Adjustment of intercensal population estimates for period 1981/1987-2011

- Violation of HMD-assumptions more likely at the regional level (no frailty-selective migration assumption at ages 80+)

MPIDR 7 Good Case

Internal In-Migration Rates Internal Out-Migration Rates

MPIDR 8 Frailty Selective Old-Age-Migration from Cities to Surrounding Areas?

Internal Out-Migration Rates Internal In-Migration Rates

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I. East-West Differences

MPIDR 10 East-West Disparities Life Expectancy at Birth 1820-1834

Source: Hoffmann (1843) MPIDR 11 Base Maps: MPIDR Population History GIS Collection Germany: East-West Disparities Gender Differences in Life Expectancy 1820-1834

Source: Hoffmann (1843) MPIDR 12 Base Maps: MPIDR Population History GIS Collection Female Life Expectancy at Birth Contrast with HMD Data for West and East Germany

83

78

East Germany 73 West Germany

68

63

MPIDR 13 Female Life Expectancy at Birth Contrast with HMD Data for West and East Germany

Schleswig-Holstein 83 Hamburg Niedersachsen Bremen Nordrhein-Westfalen 78 Hessen Rheinland-Pfalz Baden-Wuerttemberg Bayern 73 Saarland Brandenburg Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Sachsen 68 Sachsen-Anhalt Thueringen Berlin West 63 Berlin East East Germany West Germany

MPIDR 14 Male Life Expectancy at Birth Deviation from Baden-Württemberg 3 Schleswig-Holstein 2 Hamburg Niedersachsen 1 Bremen Nordrhein-Westfalen 0 Hessen -1 Rheinland-Pfalz Baden-Wuerttemberg -2 Bayern Saarland -3 Brandenburg -4 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Sachsen -5 Sachsen-Anhalt Thueringen -6 Berlin West -7 Berlin East

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Improvement in East Germany only after 1990? Males: Age Specific Mortality Rates 70-74 80

70

60

50

40 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Sachsen 30

20

10

0

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II. Decay of the North as a Vanguard Region

MPIDR 17 Germany: East-West and South-North disparities Life Expectancy at Birth 1910

MPIDR Source: Kibele, Klüsener and Scholz (2015) 18 Decay of the North as a Vanguard Region

4

3

2

1

0 Baden-Wuerttemberg -1

-2

-3

-4

MPIDR 19 Decay of the North as a Vanguard Region

4

3

2

1 Schleswig-Holstein Hamburg 0 Niedersachsen Bremen -1 Hessen Baden-Wuerttemberg -2 France

-3

-4

MPIDR 20 Decay of the North as Vanguard Region

4

3

2 Schleswig-Holstein Hamburg 1 Niedersachsen Bremen 0 Hessen Baden-Wuerttemberg -1 France -2 Netherlannds -3

-4

MPIDR 21 Conclusion

- Regional Human Mortality Database offers potentials to improve our understanding of determinants of shifts in North-South and East-West disparities in mortality across Europe

- Problems with frailty-selective migration at high age require attention - Alternative 1: Move age for Kannisto- Thatcher adjustment up from 80 to 90 years + adjustment for frailty-selective migration

- Alternative 2: Identify bigger subnational areas that are not affected by frailty-selective migration

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