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The Human Mortality Database (HMD) Magali Barbieri,1,2* John R Wilmoth,1,3 Vladimir M Shkolnikov,4,5

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The Human Mortality Database (HMD) Magali Barbieri,1,2* John R Wilmoth,1,3 Vladimir M Shkolnikov,4,5 Int. J. Epidemiol. Advance Access published June 23, 2015 International Journal of Epidemiology, 2015, 1–8 doi: 10.1093/ije/dyv105 Data Resource Profile Data Resource Profile Data Resource Profile: The Human Mortality Database (HMD) Magali Barbieri,1,2* John R Wilmoth,1,3 Vladimir M Shkolnikov,4,5 Dana Glei,6 Domantas Jasilionis,4 Dmitri Jdanov,4,5 Carl Boe,1 Downloaded from Timothy Riffe,1 Pavel Grigoriev4 and Celeste Winant1 1Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA, 2French Institute for Demographic Studies, Paris, France, 3Population Division, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York, NY, USA, 4Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/ Germany, 5New Economic School, Moscow, Russia and 6Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA *Corresponding author. Department of Demography, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley CA 94720- 2120, USA. E-mail: [email protected] Accepted 19 May 2015 at University of California, Berkeley on June 29, 2015 Data resource basics Metrics and Evaluation), they all have limitations mostly related to quality and detail of the data. For example, most Over the past 100 years, human longevity has increased lack information on advanced ages, are restricted to short more than during all preceding human history combined. time periods or focus on periods but not cohorts; these dis- This remarkable change was caused by reductions in mor- advantages are addressed by the HMD. tality; first generally at younger ages, then later progressing to older ages. The precise causes as well as the social and economic impact of this change are still unclear. What are Data resource area and population coverage the major patterns, driving forces and future prospects of this process? To what extent are these changes determined The HMD strives to include all populations for which by period factors such as advances in medicine and eco- death registration and census data are virtually complete. nomic development or by cohort effects such as early life As a result, countries and areas in the HMD are relatively experiences and accumulation of behavioural risks over wealthy and for the most part highly industrialized. At the life course? How much further can human longevity present the database contains detailed population and mor- extend? tality data for 37 developed countries and 46 populations These are central questions for scholars and policy mak- (including sub-national groups), with series starting as ers. The Human Mortality Database (HMD), as a collec- early as 1751 in Sweden and covering more than a tion of detailed, consistent and high quality human 100 years for 16 populations. The selection criteria for in- mortality data, is an important resource for addressing clusion of a country in the HMD rely mainly on the quality these fundamental questions. Although there are other of its data. In order to be included in the HMD, a country’s international databases of mortality indicators, some of death registration system must be nearly complete (close to which cover many more countries (eg those compiled by 99%). For such countries, original statistics are then the United Nations Population Division, the World Health collected extending as far back in time as there are Organization, Eurostat and the Institute for Health age-classified census data and annual death counts in a VC The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 1 2 International Journal of Epidemiology, 2015, Vol. 0, No. 0 Downloaded from http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/ at University of California, Berkeley on June 29, 2015 Figure 1. HMD period and cohort mortality series by population and year (as of January 2015). Cohort life tables are indexed by the year of birth. Cohort life tables are unavailable in Belgium because of missing input data for the period 1914–18. Based on an earlier design by Adrien Remund (2015)1. sufficiently detailed format (at a minimum, there should be Scotland and Northern Ireland in the United Kingdom; and 5-year age groups with a separate category for infants and for the Maori and non-Maori of New Zealand. an open interval at age 80 or higher). Note that for histor- Figure 2 shows life expectancy trends in all HMD coun- ical data (especially for years preceding 1870–80), the tries and averages for selected groups of countries since quality is often lower, especially at ages 80 and above. In 1970 for men and women. The figure highlights the pro- such situations, the HMD has well-defined and transparent gress in most of the populations along with a broadening methods that are applied in a consistent manner, accompa- inter-country variation, in particular the growing disparity nied by prominent warnings that alert users to potential between the countries of the former Soviet Union and other problems and issues. Figure 1 shows the years for which advanced countries. data series are available for each population in the collection. For some data series, additional details are provided on Measures specified sub-populations: (i) for populations that have suf- fered substantial war losses and where available data allow • The HMD contains uniform death rates and complete computation of population and mortality indicators for the (by single year of age up to 110þ) and abridged (ages 0, total (including the military) and civilian populations separ- 1–4, 5–9, 10–14 ... 110þ) period life tables for ex- ately, such as is the case for England and Wales and for tended periods of time, with regular updates at 2- to France; and (ii) whenever original data series are available for 3-year intervals in general, though more frequently for important population sub-groups as collected by the official some of the largest countries. All standard life table statistical agency for a country. These include separate series quantities are provided, including age-specific death for West and East Germany; for England and Wales, rates, probabilities of dying, numbers of survivors, International Journal of Epidemiology, 2015, Vol. 0, No. 0 3 90 90 e(0), e(0), years years Japan 85 85 Australia 80 Japan 80 Norway 75 75 Sweden Russia 70 70 Portugal 65 65 Russia 60 60 Downloaded from Males Russia Females 55 55 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Individual populaons All populaons Individual populaons All populaons EME CEE EME CEE http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/ FSU FSU Figure 2. Trends in life expectancy at birth by sex from 1970 to 2010 for HMD populations and population groups. Individual populations: 36 selected HMD national or sub-national populations. Established market economies (EME): Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Scotland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, USA, West Germany. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE): Bulgaria, Czech Republic, East Germany, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia. Former Soviet Union (FSU): Belarus, Russia, Ukraine. at University of California, Berkeley on June 29, 2015 person-years lived, person-years remaining and remain- (USA) and the Laboratory of Demographic Data at the ing life expectancy. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) • In addition to complete series of period life tables, cohort in Rostock (Germany). The French Institute for life tables are provided where the observation period is Demographic Studies (INED) has been involved more sufficiently long to include at least one cohort observed recently. Information about the background, history and from birth until extinction (around age 110). In that methodology of the HMD can be found at case, life tables are presented for all extinct cohorts as [www.mortality.org]. well as for almost-extinct cohorts (i.e. those that have Within the HMD team, country specialists are respon- reached 90 years of age or older). sible for a specific country or set of countries. Country • The HMD also includes the original raw data collected specialists are in charge of establishing contact with in- from reliable sources (mostly as published or distributed country experts (usually at the national statistical office or by national statistical offices). These raw or ‘input’ data in the academic community), carrying out all systematic include the birth, death and census counts as well as steps involved in assessing the reliability of input data, official population estimates, from which all mortality computing mortality rates and life tables and updating estimates and life tables are derived. The data are existing data series. The process of constructing the mor- accompanied by detailed documentation for the database tality series for each country is described in detail in the as a whole (with both a complete methods protocol and HMD methods protocol and in a brief summary available a summary protocol) and for each particular country on the website [www.mortality.org].2 Major steps include (see Figure 3 for a snapshot of a typical HMD country the following. page). i. Processing birth counts: annual counts of live births by sex are collected for each population over the longest time period available. These counts are used mainly for Methods estimating the size of individual cohorts from their birth. The HMD was launched online in 2002. It is a resource de- ii. Processing death counts: death counts are collected by veloped and maintained jointly by the Department of sex, completed age, year of death and year of birth Demography at the University of California, Berkeley (whenever available). Deaths of unknown age are 4 International Journal of Epidemiology, 2015, Vol. 0, No. 0 Downloaded from http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/ at University of California, Berkeley on June 29, 2015 Figure 3. Screen shot of a typical HMD country page. distributed proportionately across the age range and introduced where necessary to ensure that death aggregated deaths are split into finer age classes.
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