Demographic Responses to Economic and Environmental Crises Edited by Satomi Kurosu, Tommy Bengtsson, and Cameron Campbell Proceedings of the IUSSP Seminar May 21-23, 2009, Reitaku University Kashiwa, Japan, 2010 Reitaku University Copyright 2010 Authors of this volume No part of this book may be reproduced in any form without permission from the authors Reitaku University Hikarigaoka 2-1-1, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8686 Japan ii Preface This volume is the proceedings of the IUSSP (International Union for the Scientific Study of Population) seminar on “Demographic Responses to Sudden Economic and Environmental Change.” The seminar took place in Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan, May 21- 23, 2009. The fourteen papers presented at the seminar are included in this volume. The seminar was followed by a public symposium “Lessons from the Past: Climate, Disease, and Famine” in which five participants of the seminar presented and discussed issues related to the seminar to an audience that included 245 scholars, students and members of the public. Two additional papers presented at the symposium are also included in this volume. The seminar was organized by the IUSSP Scientific Panel on Historical Demography and hosted by Reitaku University. The seminar received support from Reitaku University and was held in cooperation with the Centre for Economic Demography, Lund University and the Population Association of Japan. The public symposium was organized as part of a series of events to commemorate the 50th anniversary of Reitaku University. The topic of the seminar was timely not only in the academic sense, but also in a practical sense, with the simultaneous worldwide outbreak of H1N1 flu. The local organizer had to prepare for various scenarios according to instructions given by the prefectural education commission that changed almost every other week. In early May, Japan went to the highest alert level and required screening of all airline passengers from abroad upon arrival. Some travelers suspected of being infected were quarantined for more than a week. The prefectural education commission even announced that all schools in the six neighboring cities would be shut down if even one infectious case was found among students, teachers or anyone else connected to the schools. In mid-May, after an infectious case was found domestically among someone who had not been abroad and had not been exposed to any visitors from abroad, the government drastically reduced the screening procedures at all airports. This exemplified how people as well as government react to an outbreak of a disease, and therefore was an interesting and educational experience. Luckily, no participants were quarantined on their arrival and the seminar and symposium were iii held as originally planned. Since one of the topics covered in the symposium was the Spanish Flu in 1918-20, the symposium attracted greater interest from the public. We are grateful to Reitaku University for hosting and sponsoring the IUSSP seminar, and for publishing this volume. We thank Professor Osamu Nakayama, the president of Reitaku University, Mr. Mototaka Hiroike, the board director of the Hiroike Institute of Education, and many staff members of Reitaku University as well as those at the Population and Family History Project at Reitaku for their support. We also thank Ms. Tomomi Hasegawa for helping with the copy-editing of this volume. iv Table of Contents iii Preface v Table of Contents vii List of Contributors ix Introduction 1 Mortality Crises in Rural Southern Sweden 1766-1860 1 Tommy Bengtsson and Göran Broström 2 Economic Crisis, Manorialism, and Demographic Response: 17 Southern Sweden in the Preindustrial Period Martin Dribe, Mats Olsson, and Patrick Svensson 3 Demographic Responses to Short-Term Economic Stress in a 19th 48 Century Tuscan Sharecropping Population Marco Breschi, Alessio Fornasin, Giovanna Gonano, Matteo Manfredini, and Chiara Seghieri 4 Demographic Responses to Short-Term Economic Stress in North 65 East Italy: Friuli, 18th-19th Century Marco Breschi, Alessio Fornasin, Giovanna Gonano, Matteo Manfredini, and Chiara Seghieri 5 To Die or to Leave: Demographic Responses to Famines in Rural 79 Northeastern Japan, 1716-1870 Noriko O. Tsuya and Satomi Kurosu 6 Demographic Impacts of Climatic Fluctuations in Northeast China, 107 1749-1909 Cameron Campbell and James Lee 7 Reproductive Consequences of China’s Great Leap Forward 133 Famine Yong Cai and Wang Feng 8 Political Turmoil, Economic Crisis, and International Migration in 150 DR Congo: Evidence from Event-History Data (1975-2007) Bruno Schoumaker, Sophie Vause, and José Mangalu 9 Determinants of Reconstruction After Major Earthquakes in Taiwan 172 Ts’ui-jung Liu 10 The Impact of the Chi-chi Earthquake on Demographic Changes: 193 An Event History Analysis Joan C. Lo v 11 Drought and the Lifecycle/Landuse Trajectory in Agricultural 204 Households Susan Hautaniemi Leonard, Myron Gutmann, Glenn D. Deane, and Kenneth M. Sylvester 12 Changes in Broad Demographic Behaviors After the 2003 227 European Heat Wave François R. Herrmann, Jean-Marie Robine, and Jean-Pierre Michel 13 Smallpox and Population Change in 18th and 19th Century 239 Amakusa Islands, Kyusyu, Japan Satoshi Murayama and Noboru Higashi 14 Decrease of Child Deaths from Smallpox After the Introduction of 252 Vaccination on the Outskirts of Edo (Tokyo), Japan Hiroshi Kawaguchi 15 Climate and Famine in Historic Japan: A Very Long-Term 272 Perspective Osamu Saito 16 An Estimation of Spanish Influenza Mortality in Imperial Japan: 282 1918-20 Akira Hayami vi List of Contributors Tommy Bengtsson Giovanna Gonano Centre for Economic Demography Department of Economics (DEIR) and Department of Economic History University of Sassari, Italy Lund University, Sweden [email protected] [email protected] Myron Gutmann Marco Breschi Inter-University Consortium Department of Economics (DEIR) for Political and Social Research University of Sassari, Italy Department of History [email protected] University of Michigan, USA [email protected] Göran Broström Centre for Population Studies Akira Hayami and Department of Statistics Professor Emeritus, Umeå University, Sweden Reitaku University, Japan [email protected] [email protected] Yong Cai François R. Herrmann Department of Sociology Department of Rehabilitation and University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, Geriatrics USA Geneva University Hospital, Switzerland [email protected] [email protected] Cameron Campbell Noboru Higashi Department of Sociology Faculty of Letters University of California, Los Angeles, Kyoto Prefectural University, Japan USA [email protected] [email protected] Hiroshi Kawaguchi Glenn D. Deane Faculty of Business Administration Department of Sociology Tezukayama University, Japan University at Albany, [email protected] State University of New York, USA [email protected] Satomi Kurosu College of Foreign Studies Martin Dribe Reitaku University, Japan Centre for Economic Demography [email protected] and Department of Economic History Lund University, Sweden James Lee [email protected] Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong Alessio Fornasin [email protected] Department of Statistics University of Udine, Italy [email protected] vii Susan Hautaniemi Leonard Jean-Marie Robine Inter-University Consortium Department of Rehabilitation for Political and Social Research and Geriatric University of Michigan, USA University of Geneva, Switzerland [email protected] (Inserm, Health & Demography, CRLC, Montpellier, France) Ts’ui-jung Liu [email protected] Institute of Taiwan History Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan Osamu Saito [email protected] Professor Emeritus, Hitotsubashi University, Japan Joan C. Lo [email protected] Institute of Economics Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan Bruno Schoumaker [email protected] Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium Matteo Manfredini [email protected] Department of Genetics Anthropology Evolution Chiara Seghieri University of Parma, Italy Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy [email protected] [email protected] José Mangalu Patrick Svensson Department of Population Centre for Economic Demography and Development and Department of Economic History University of Kinshasa, DR Congo Lund University, Sweden [email protected] [email protected] Jean-Pierre Michel Kenneth M. Sylvester Department of Rehabilitation Inter-University Consortium and Geriatrics for Political and Social Research Geneva University Hospital and University of Michigan, USA University of Geneva, Switzerland [email protected] [email protected] Noriko O. Tsuya Satoshi Murayama Faculty of Economics Faculty of Education Keio University, Japan Kagawa University, Japan [email protected] [email protected] Sophie Vause Mats Olsson Université Catholique de Louvain, Centre for Economic Demography Belgium and Department of Economic History [email protected] Lund University, Sweden [email protected] Wang Feng Department of Sociology University of California, Irvine, USA [email protected] viii Introduction The focus of the papers in this volume is the effects on the demographic behavior of individuals and families of various crises that threatened most people in the past and many people even today. Such crises may be social, political, or economic in origin, stemming for example from financial shocks, harvest failure, violent food price fluctuations, regime change, or war. Alternatively they may be associated with natural