Jaimie Orr Breakout Session I How Roosevelt Is Used to Teach Grand

Breakout Session I

How Roosevelt is Used to Teach Grand Strategy

Speaker: Jaimie Orr The National War College

School of Practice… Teaching College…

NWC Mission

Educate future leaders of the Armed Forces, Department of State, and other civilian agencies for high-level policy, command and staff responsibilities by conducting a senior-level course of study in national security strategy.

NWC Accreditation

Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Middle States Commission on Higher Education Process for Accreditation of Joint Education (PAJE) – Master’s Degree – JPME II In The Beginning

“The National War College is concerned with grand strategy and the utilization of resources necessary to implement that strategy. Its graduates will exercise a great influence on the formulation of national and foreign policy in both peace and war.”

Lieutenant General Leonard T. Gerow, USA Report Recommending Creation of NWC, 1945

“Every aspect of the program is not only conducive to freedom of thought and uninhibited expression, but has also been intentionally planned to furnish a forum for the dissemination and evaluation of new ideas.”

Vice Admiral Harry W. Hill “Opening address to first class” National War College, 3 Sep 1946 Around Half of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Omar Bradley Arthur Radford Nathan Lyman Lemnitzer Maxwell D. Taylor Earle Wheeler Thomas H. 1949-1953 1953-1957 Twining 1957- 1960-1962 1962-1964 1964-1970 Moorer 1970- 1960 1974

George S. Brown David C. Jones John William Vessey Jr. William J. Crowe Colin Powell David E. Jeremiah John 1974-1978 1978-1982 1982-1985 1985-1989 1989-1993 1993-1993 Shalikashvili 1993-1997

Hugh Shelton Richard Myers Peter Pace Michael Mullen Martin Dempsey Joseph Dunford 2015- 1997-2001 2001-2005 2005-2007 2007-2011 2011-2015 Present How Has NWC Contributed to National Strategy

1947 – NWC Vice-Commandant George Kennan develops the Containment Doctrine

1953 – President Eisenhower conducts Project SOLARIUM at NWC

1989 – NWC grad Colin Powell coins Powell Doctrine

1990 – NWC grad Brent Scowcroft coins New World Order vision as National Security Advisor

2001 – Former NWC professor Paul Wolfowitz is a key contributor to the Bush-43 Doctrine

2017 – NWC grad James Mattis lays out “Great Power Competition” National Defense Strategy NWC Educational Approach

• Small group seminar – 13 students/1 faculty • Joint/Interagency/International • 2 Army; 2 Air Force; 2 Navy; 1 Marine/Coast Guard/1 State Department; 3 Other Civilian Agency; 2 International Fellows • Active Learning • Socratic discussion • Analysis of classical theory and emerging concepts • Development of analytical frameworks • Critique of selected historical cases • Assessment of selected strategic environments • Application of “scenario planning” methodology to envision alternate futures • Individual and group problem-solving exercises • Written/oral communication of analyses/problem solutions • “In the field” strategic analysis/assessment • “Contact hours” (i.e., in-classroom time) limited to 13/week • Rigorous assessment against well-defined performance outcomes NWC Class of 2020

Non-DOD Civilian 35 Army 43

DOD Civilian 21

Air Force Int’l 43 Fellows 33 Marines Navy 16 13 Coast Guard 2 Total = 206 Common Curriculum Required Additional American of all NWC Students Student Requirements

6000: Strategic Leader Foundation 6600: National Security Strategy 6210: Statecraft I: Historical Practicum (all US Students) Perspective Electives (US Students required 6310: Statecraft II: Modern Era to take 3) 6500: Global Context 6400: Domestic Context Additional International Student Requirements 6920: Applications in Strategy (all International Fellows) 6921: Individual Strategy Research Project (all International Fellows) 6047: American Studies I 6048: American Studies II What is Strategic Logic?

• A method for thinking through complex strategic problems

• 3D: Non-Linear & Non-Sequential • All elements influenced by assumptions Strategic leadership converts a strategy into success Strategic Logic – The Sources Analyze the Strategic Situation  Analyze the Strategic Situation Define the Ends  Define the Ends  Determine the Means  Formulate the Ways

 Assess the Risks/Costs

Answers the question: “What is the condition we want to create?”

• Linkage of National Interests & Ends • Political Aim • Specific Objectives  Analyze the Strategic Situation Determine the Means  Define the Ends  Determine the Means  Formulate the Ways

 Assess the Risks/Costs Answers the question: “What are the resources needed or available?”

• Elements of Power • Institutions and Actors • Instruments of power • Interrelationship of Means • Employing/Developing Means  Analyze the Strategic Situation Formulate the Ways  Define the Ends  Determine the Means  Formulate the Ways

 Assess the Risks/Costs Answers the question: “How should resources be used?”

• Fundamental Strategic Approaches WAYS • Modes of Action Modes of Action (examples) Fundamental Direct Indirect • Matching Institutions and Strategic Unilateral Multilateral Approaches Sequential Cumulative Actual Prospective Actors Observe Proactive Reactive Accommodate Overt Covert Strategic • Orchestration Shape Persuade Orchestration Concept Enable Instrument  Prioritize Induce Specific &  Sequence Coerce Institution  Coordinate Subdue  Balance Packages Objectives  Integrate Subordinate Eradicate Strategies Strategic Logic—Assessments: Costs and Risks

Answers the question: “Is this strategy viable?” WAYS • Risks to and from a strategy • Costs of strategy ENDS MEANS • Iterative (re)assessment and course COSTS corrections RISKS • Red-Teaming Evaluating Strategy – “ilities” Test • DESIRABLE: Interest of sufficient value; benefits worth the likely cost; success improves strategic position • SUITABLE: Aim serves interests; lines of effort will have Rumelt’s Kernel Test desired effects; orchestrated w/other strategies • Diagnosis • FEASIBLE: Sufficient means are available or attainable • Guiding Policy • SUSTAINABLE: Means available for the duration required to achieve success • Coherent Actions • ACCEPTABLE: Able to sustain public support; sufficiently consistent wi/international law and norms The Independent Strategy Research Project Analyzing Case Studies Using the Elements of Strategic Logic Roosevelt’s Grand Strategy

• Strategic Context: • International Context • Global Context • U.S. National Interests • Threats or Opportunities to Interests • Strategic problem • Political Aim / Grand Strategic Objective • Supporting Objectives (ends) • Subordinate Objectives and Instruments (ways/means) Roosevelt’s Grand Strategy

• Strategic Context: • USA had been focused on internal stability and continental expansion • Protected during this time by Royal Navy and European Powers’ involvement on European Continent • Technology now allows European powers greater ability to act in Western hemisphere • Continued prosperity of USA depends on further commercial expansion and broader security from external threats • U.S. National Interests: • Security from direct or indirect external attack • Prosperity of our nation and all its citizens • Protecting the American “way of life” and Values • Perceived Threats to those interests: • Expansion of European powers into Western hemisphere • Unchecked Rise of Japan and Russia in the Pacific Rim Roosevelt’s Grand Strategy

• Strategic Problem: • Expansion of European Powers into the Caribbean and South America and the growth of Russia and Japan as military powers bordering the Pacific, present a continuing threat to American security, prosperity, and way of life. • Political Aim / Grand Strategic Objective: • Establish the United States as a global power with an increased sphere of influence and regional hegemony • Supporting Objectives: • Build a Navy capable of projecting US influence and protecting US national interests on a par with other great powers. • Establish a diplomatic leadership role for the United States among other great powers • Ensure continued US economic expansion • Establish and align executive power in relation to government and the private sector to ensure a just prosperity. Other Subordinate Objectives

• Completion of canal linking Atlantic and Pacific Oceans • This subordinate objective advances supporting objectives 1 & 3 • Facilitate a mediated end to conflict between Russia and Japan • This subordinate objective advances subordinate objective 2 • Key: To have the seminar identify and evaluate other subordinate objectives that were undertaken in order to accomplish the political aim. Criteria for Evaluating the Elements of Strategic Logic in the Case Study

• Was there a tight fit between the perceived threat and a national security interest? Was this articulated in a coherent and concise problem statement that guided the process in settling on a political aim? • Did the formulation of the problem statement take into account the target's (or opponent's) interests, perceived threats to those interests, motivations, and capabilities? • Did the political aim effectively address the threat to the national security interest? Criteria for Evaluating the Elements of Strategic Logic in the Case Study

• Which instruments were used in the strategy? • Which institutions/actors wielded the instruments and why? For each subordinate objective, identify the means/ways package employed. • In this particular context, were the strengths and limitations of each instrument evident? What were they? • Was the selection and employment taken as a whole (ways) effective for the achievement of the subordinate objectives and, in turn, the political aim? Did strategy effectively orchestrate instruments to achieve the political aim?

• Military Instrument: • Force enabling: Continued build-up of Navy begun under earlier administrations (Obj. #1); • Threat of Force: Deployed fleet to Caribbean to support diplomatic efforts connected with UK and German activities (Obj. #1 & 2); • Diplomatic Instrument: • Issued invitation for Second International Peace Conference at The Hague (Obj #2); • Facilitated arbitration between Russia and Japan (Obj #2) • Information Instrument: • Use of Great White Fleet to demonstrate global reach of US Navy. (Obj. # 1 & 2) • Reinternment of John Paul Jones (Obj. #1) Did strategy effectively orchestrate instruments to achieve the political aim?

Subordinate Objective: Completion of Panama Canal (Supports Obj. 1, 2, & 3) • Diplomatic: Negotiations with French and Colombian Government, followed by negotiations with and support of Panamanian Nationalists seeking independence from Colombia • Economic: Provided funding for completion of canal, ensuring economic viability of new Panamanian Government • Information: • Emphasis in speeches and press on economic and national security necessity of Canal to US interests. • Characterization of Colombia as corrupt, of Panamanians as valiant patriots seeking self-determination • Military: ? What is Strategic Logic?

• A method for thinking through complex strategic problems

• 3D: Non-Linear & Non-Sequential • All elements influenced by assumptions Strategic leadership converts a strategy into success National War College

Theodore Roosevelt and Strategic Leadership ELECTIVE COURSE 6025 Course Learning Outcomes

• Students will be familiar with the concept and components of strategic leadership and how strategic leadership represents a unique challenge, different from other forms of leadership. • Students will become familiar with the personal and professional history of Theodore Roosevelt. • Students will be able to analyze the key personal and professional attributes of Theodore Roosevelt in different roles and apply those attributes to the challenges of national service in general and national security strategy specifically. Course Texts

• Strategic Leadership Primer for Senior Leaders, (United States Army War College, 2019) • James Strock. Theodore Roosevelt on Leadership: Executive Lessons from the Bully Pulpit (New York: Three Rivers Press, 2003) • Christopher McKnight Nichols and Nancy C. Unger. 2017. A Companion to the Gilded Age and Progressive Era. (West Sussex: Wiley Blackwell, 2017). • Serge Ricard, ed. A Companion to Theodore Roosevelt (Hoboken: Wiley & Sons, 2011 • Theodore Roosevelt. Theodore Roosevelt: an Autobiography. (Newburyport: Open Road Media, 2016). • Henry J. Hendrix. 2014. Theodore Roosevelt's Naval Diplomacy: the U.S. Navy and the Birth of the American Century. Annapolis: Naval Institute Press.

In addition to these common readings, each student has selected one or two other books by or about Theodore Roosevelt to read simultaneously with other assignments, and brings the perspective from that other author into the discussion. (Books are available as e-books or provided on loan). Strategic Leadership in National Security

Strength of Instruments of National National Power Influence & - Diplomacy Strategic Security - Information Leadership - Military - Economy Strategic Leadership in National Security

Orchestrated use of National Instruments of Influence & Power Strategic Security - Diplomacy Leadership - Information - Military - Economy What is Strategic Leadership?

Strategic leadership is the process of aligning people, systems, and resources to achieve a vision for the enterprise while enabling an adaptive and innovative culture necessary to gain an advantage in the competitive environment.

Martinez and Galvin Strategic Leadership Primer for Senior Leaders, (United States Army War College, 2019) Strategic Leadership Requires Strategic Thinking

• Strategic thinking is intent-focused, future oriented, and involves an enterprise-wide, integrated perspective; it is ultimately about obtaining competitive advantage for the whole organization.

• The strategic leader must have (or develop) three essential competencies: • the ability to envision the future; • the sophisticated use of theory; and • the application of reflective judgment.

Douglas E. Waters, “Understanding Strategic Thinking and Developing Strategic Leaders,” Joint Force Quarterly 63 (4th Quarter 2011): 115. Roosevelt’s Leadership in Achieving the Objectives of the Grand Strategy

• Consider how TR needed to exercise the competencies of strategic leadership to accomplish the objectives necessary for achieving his grand strategy • Build a Navy capable of projecting US influence and protecting US national interests on a par with other great powers. • Establish a diplomatic leadership role for the United States among other great powers • Ensure continued US economic expansion • Establish and align executive power in relation to government and the private sector to ensure a just prosperity. Consider and Discuss Roosevelt’s Demonstration of Leadership in Other Contexts

• Roles: • As a junior state assemblyman • As Civil Service Commissioner and Police Commissioner • As President, advancing domestic policy agenda • Personal leadership • Dealing with error, failure, and loss Course Learning Outcomes:

Student learning demonstrated through assessment of two writing assignments and contribution to seminar discussion Thank You For Joining Us

For more information about the Theodore Roosevelt Institute, visit liu.edu/roosevelt