Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Latin American and Caribbean Cities

Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Latin American and Caribbean Cities FINAL REPORT: CUSCO, PERU This page is intentionally blank Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Cusco, Peru Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Latin American and Caribbean Cities A report submitted by ICF GHK in association with King's College London and Grupo Laera Job Number: J40252837 Cover photo: Cusco, June 2012. ICF GHK 2nd Floor, Clerkenwell House 67 Clerkenwell Road London EC1R 5BL T +44 (0)20 7611 1100 F +44 (0)20 3368 6960 www.ghkint.com i Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Cusco, Peru Document Control Document Title Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Latin American and Caribbean Cities Complete Report: Cusco, Peru Job number J40252837 Prepared by Climate-related hazard assessment Dr Rawlings Miller, Dr Carmen Lacambra, Christopher Evans, Clara Ariza, Ricardo Saavedra, Susan Asam Urban, social and economic adaptive capacity assessment Dr Robin Bloch, Nikolaos Papachristodoulou, Jose Monroy Institutional adaptive capacity assessment Dr Zehra Zaidi, Prof Mark Pelling Climate-related vulnerability assessment Dr Rawlings Miller, Dr Robin Bloch, Dr Zehra Zaidi, Nikolaos Papachristodoulou, Thuy Phung Strategic climate adaptation institutional strengthening and investment plan Dr Robin Bloch, Nikolaos Papachristodoulou, Jose Monroy Checked by Dr Robin Bloch, Nikolaos Papachristodoulou ICF GHK is the brand name of GHK Consulting Ltd and the other subsidiaries of GHK Holdings Ltd. In February 2012 GHK Holdings and its subsidiaries were acquired by ICF International. ii Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Cusco, Peru Contents Executive summary .......................................................................................................... xii Understanding the problem of flooding and landslides .......................................................................... xii Strategic climate adaptation investment and institutional strengthening plan ........................................ xv 1 Introduction .........................................................................................................1 1.1 About the project ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Outline of the report ................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Context and study area ............................................................................................................ 3 2 Climate-related hazard assessment: floods and landslides ....................................6 2.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 7 2.3 Physical description ................................................................................................................. 7 2.4 Current flood hazards ............................................................................................................. 18 2.5 Current landslide hazards ...................................................................................................... 24 2.6 Future hazard ......................................................................................................................... 29 3 Urban, social and economic adaptive capacity assessment .................................. 39 3.1 Urban, social and economic context ...................................................................................... 39 3.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 40 3.3 Economic characteristics ....................................................................................................... 40 3.4 Urban development, spatial expansion and demographic change ........................................ 41 3.5 Urban poverty ......................................................................................................................... 45 3.6 Spatial, social and economic impact upon hazards ............................................................... 49 4 Institutional adaptive capacity assessment ......................................................... 52 4.1 Institutional context ................................................................................................................ 52 4.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 52 4.3 Policy instruments .................................................................................................................. 54 4.4 Institutional mapping .............................................................................................................. 57 4.5 Gaps in existing capacity and opportunities for adaptation ................................................... 58 5 Climate-related vulnerability and risk assessment ............................................... 64 5.1 City profile .............................................................................................................................. 64 5.2 Institutional vulnerability in Cusco .......................................................................................... 67 5.3 Landslides and floods vulnerability in Cusco ......................................................................... 70 6 Strategic climate adaptation investment and institutional strengthening plan ..... 82 6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 82 6.2 Approach and tools for adaptation planning .......................................................................... 82 6.3 Strategy and adaptation measures ........................................................................................ 84 6.4 Action plan ............................................................................................................................. 92 6.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 96 7 References ......................................................................................................... 97 Annex 1 Methodology of climate-related hazard assessment ............................... 102 Annex 2 Inventory of flood events ....................................................................... 109 Annex 3 Precipitation projection figures .............................................................. 111 iii Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Cusco, Peru Table of tables Table 2.1 Monthly average temperature and total precipitation for the Cusco area from 1965 to 1990. Source: Based on observation data provided by SENAMH. .................................. 15 Table 2.2 The number of flood-related events in Cusco reported by the media between 1970 and 2011. ................................................................................................................................. 20 Table 2.3 Classification of landslide types ........................................................................................ 25 Table 2.4 The number of landslide events in Cusco by month as reported by the media since 1970. .......................................................................................................................................... 27 Table 2.5 Projected precipitation for the Cusco area in the 2040s relative to current precipitation (i.e., the 1965 to 1990 average). Projected data is shown for the minimum and maximum result from climate models, the results corresponding to the 25th and 75th percentile, and the ensemble median. Source: based on data from Girvetz, 2009. ................................. 32 Table 2.6 Change in precipitation rate (mm/day) projected for the 2040s relative to 1961 to 1990 for Cusco using data from PRECIS-Caribe. ........................................................................... 33 Table 2.7 Summary of the projected change in temperature, precipitation, and precipitation rate for the 2040s. ......................................................................................................................... 34 Table 2.8 Qualitative summary of change in flood and landslide hazard in Cusco by 2040 compared to current levels. ................................................................................................................ 35 Table 2.9 A ranking system to distinguish areas on the map projected to experience change or no change in landslide and flood hazards. ............................................................................ 36 Table 3.1 Tourism activity in Cusco .................................................................................................. 40 Table 3.2 Demographic growth in urban Cusco ............................................................................... 41 Table 3.3 HDI departmental and provincial by departments grouped by quintiles ........................... 42 Table 3.4 Urban density .................................................................................................................... 42 Table 3.5 Inventory of basic infrastructure

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