Yevgeny Maksimovich Primakov About a Multipolar World of the XXI Century

1. Russia in a Multipolar World: 5 Foreign Policy and Bilateral Cooperation

Yevgeny Maksimovich Primakov about a Multipolar World of the XXI Century

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the great public official of the USSR and Russia Yevgeny Primakov. The article analyzes a multipolar system of the international relations, promoted in his works. A multipolar system, according to Primakov, does not set the trend towards the confrontation between poles and centers of power in the world. The reasons for this trend are the integration processes between the countries and transnationalization of business activities. Key words: Russia, Y. M. Primakov, a multipolar world, the US, China, India, unilateralism.

Author

Gorokhov Andrey Anatolyevich Ph. D. in Political science, Head of the Scientific Division, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University (Moscow, Russia).

OUTIN evgeny Primakov (1929–2015) — ac- Deputy of the Russian Federal Assembly ademician, Member of the Russian (1999–2001), Chairman of Chamber of Com- YAcademy of Sciences, statesman, pub- merce and Industry. lic figure, scientist, politician and diplomat, In 2014, he was awarded the State Prize director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Federation for his significant and the Institute of World Economy and In- contribution to scientific and analytical sup- ternational Relations (1985–1989), Chairman port of the Russian foreign policy. of the Board of the Supreme Soviet of the In 2014, he became President Emiratus USSR (1988–1991), Director of Russian For- of the Russian Society of Political Scientists, eign Intelligence Service (1991–1996), Minis- Emiratus Professor (since 1998), Emiratus ter for Foreign Affairs (1996–1998), Chairman Doctor (since 2006) of Lomonosov Moscow of the Government (1998–1999), State Duma state University.

Peacemaking

prominent scientist and an outstan making. He was an active participant of the ding politician Yevgeny Primakov international peace movement. Since 1970, Agave much of his attention to peace he was the participant of Pugwash scien- 6 Русская политология — Russian Political Science № 1, 2016 Topic of the issue: «Multipolar World of the XXI Century» tists’ movement1. Primakov has made a significant contribution to the work of US-So- viet Pugwash Group on disarmament and research of conflicts2. Moreover, his input into the preparing of the Treaty on Ballistic Mis- sile Defense and of the Agreements on the Strategic Offensive Arms between the USSR and USA was imposing. In the years between 1970 and 2015 he was the member of the So- viet-Pugwash and later of Russian-Pugwash (since 1991) Committee. From 2002 to 2014, he was the member of the Presidium of this Committee. We should keep in mind that the funda- Photo. Y. M. Primakov giving a lecture on mental document of the Pugwash move- Faculty of political science of Lomonosov ment, that is Russel-Einstein Manifesto Moscow State University. April 2014 (1955), said «We should learn to think in a different way. We should ask ourselves not ing for all the participants» [1]. That was the about what steps to do to achieve the victory question Yevgeny Primakov had been trying in the side we belong to, for such steps no to answer all his life, whenever political or longer exist, but we should ask ourselves the military conflict appeared. Then he found question, what steps can prevent the armed the answer and started to act for the sake struggle that is going to turn to be devastat- of peace. Primakov did a lot to establish a political 1 Pugwash scientists’ movement (Pugwash dialogue between the USA and the USSR, and Conferences on Science and World Affairs is later with Russia. He actively participated in an international nongovenmental scientific or- the Soviet-American Dartmouth conferences, ganization. The movement acquired its name was the co-chairman of the working group on from the town of Pugwash (Nova Scotia, Cana- conflict3 situations. Based in the results of da), where in 7–10 July 1957 the first meeting of the work of this group the measures for nor- scientists took place, where the most important malization of the situation in the Middle East aspects of the global politics and the nuclear have been developed. war were discussed. 2 With the growth of the Pugmash move- 3 Dartmouth meetings (conferences) are ment and after long discussions in 1964 the the conferences of the representatives of Standing Committee established the Sovi- the Soviet and the American public, held al- et-American Pugwash Group on Disarmament ternately in the USSR and the USA. The first and Arms Control. The co-chairmen of the conference held in 1960 in the United States Group that year were M. D. Millionsikov, the in Dartmouth College (Hanover, state New Head of the Soviet Pugwash Committee, and Hampshire). The second Dartmouth confer- the American Professor of biochemistry P. Doty ence took place in the USSR, in the Crimea, (See: Pugwash Movement of Scientists — one in May 1961. The participants of the second of the oldest leading international scientific meeting insisted on reaching of the agreement organizations in the field of security, disar- in the negotiations on the cessation of nuclear mament and scientific cooperation — Nobel tests between the USSR, USA and Great Britain peace prize 1995 // the Website of the Russian in 1958. From 1960 to 1990, 17 meetings took Pugwash Committee at the Presidium of the place. (See: The History of the United States in Russian Academy of science. — URL: http:// 4 volumes. vol.4: 1945–1980. — M.: Science — www.pugwash.ru (accessed date: 21.06.2016). 1987. — P. 744). Gorokhov Andrey Anatolyevich 7 Yevgeny Maksimovich Primakov about a Multipolar World of the XXI Century

Photo. Y. M. Primakov with Rector of Moscow State University V. A. Sadovnichy (on the left) and Dean of Faculty of Political Science A. Y. Shutov (on the right) before the lecture in MSU. April 2011 In 2007, Primakov became the co-chair- State Secretary Henry Kissinger. The agenda man of the Russian-American group in the of the group included the following ques- public dialogue «Russia-USA: looking to the tions: geopolitical reviews focused on the future». The group targeted to improve Rus- relationships of Russia and the United States, sian-American relations and to develop ap- the world economy, the non-proliferation of propriate recommendations to the political nuclear weapons, energy, the coincidence of leaders of the two countries. The American the interests of Russia and the United States. side of the group was headed by former

Multipolar or unipolar world?

n Russia, Yevgeny Primakov is considered ganizations (such as UN, «Group of 20» (G20) as the theorist of the concept of a mul- and others). Itipolar world. This concept presupposes The concept of a multipolar world proves the development of the world in a peaceful an alternative to the concept of unipolar way. The unipolar development model leads world. Primakov’s opinion was that American inevitably to suppression of independent po- neocons (neoconservatives) were the ideol- litical and economic centers, which interact ogists of the concept. They developed the independently, and not through the unified doctrine of American unilateralism. center, sometimes applying military force. According to this doctrine, after the Multipolar world serves an arena for differ- cold war the United States gained the right ent world actors to coordinate their foreign to determine which countries present the policy through the dialogue and in the frame- threat to the world community, and without work of international formal and informal or- the decision of the UN Security Council and 8 Русская политология — Russian Political Science № 1, 2016 Topic of the issue: «Multipolar World of the XXI Century»

Photo. Y. M. Primakov on Faculty of Political Science of Lomonosov Moscow State University. April 2014 without the consent of NATO bloc allies, can As for the victory of the USA in the «cold apply armed force against such countries. war», according to Primakov, «the collapse The doctrine was based on the following of the Soviet Union could not be treated as statements: the defeat in the cold war» [2]. for former re- 1. The United States won the «cold war», publics of the Soviet Union did not sink into and only one dominating power in the chaos, and the nuclear missile potential was world left; preserved in Russia (the successor state of 2. The United States after the «cold war» the USSR). preserved all the qualitative and quan- Considering the second statement, it titative indicators of a superpower and is important to mind the fact that the inte- joined a number of the countries that gration around the United States is possible submitted their foreign policy to the US only in the presence of a global or regional interests in order to provide their own military threat from any country (or a group security. of countries). In case there is no such threat, Regarding the first argument, even then it must be created and maintained by during the «cold war »period there existed all means, including mass media. Otherwise, more than two global centers in the world as the partners of the United States would not far as the countries-participants of the Non- need much support. Isn’t that the real reason Aligned Movement existed1. for the United States to create such a threat from Russia, especially in the eyes of Europe- 1 The history of the Non-Aligned Movement ans? Imaginary military threat from Russia al- started in September 1961, when on the initia- lows the US to develop military-political bloc tive of Nehru, Nkrumah, Nasser, Tito, Suharto of NATO, and to affect military and economic the First Conference of Heads of Developing potentials of the European countries. Countries held in Belgrad. The Conference of Heads of Government and Non-Aligned Move- tions international forum. At that moment, the ment is the second largest after the United Na- Movement includes 120 countries. Gorokhov Andrey Anatolyevich 9 Yevgeny Maksimovich Primakov about a Multipolar World of the XXI Century

Photo. Yevgeny Primakov speaks at the conference of the Russian Society of Political Scientists «Transformation of the role of the state in modern world» at MSU. At the conference, the pre- sentation of the book by Y. M. Primakov «Challenges and alternatives of a multipolar world: the role of Russia» took place. On the photographs Yevgeny Primakov (on the left) and Sergei Stepashin (on the right). December 2014. Primakov considered the two statements In one of the conversations, Matlock not- justifying the doctrine of American unilater- ed that «The Soviet Union disintegrated not alism insolvent, and appealed to opinions of because of an external pressure. In addition, American politicians, who denied the doc- the cold war ended not because of the col- trine of a unipolar world order. Among such lapse of the Soviet Union. It ended due to politicians, a former US Ambassador in Mos- the agreement, profitable for both sides. The cow Jack Matlock1 and respectful politician end of the Communist Government came be- George Kennan2 should be noted. cause of Michael Gorbachev’s actions, which deprived it of the hegemonic power. The idea 1 Jack F. Matlock, 1929 was the US Ambas- that the United States somehow won the vic- sador in the USSR in 1987–1991. The author of tory over the Soviet Union, led Washington fundamental researches concerning the col- to the mistaken and bankrupt policy... USA lapse of the Soviet Union («Autopsy on an Em- did not win the „cold war“, but US leaders be- pire», 1995), the ending of the «cold war«(„Rea- gan to behave the way as if they did» [3]. gan and Gorbachev“, 2004), the drawbacks In his turn, George Kennan called «silly of the USA international policy of President and childish» the election speech of Georg George Bush Jr. („Superpower illusions“, 2010). Bush Sr. in 1992, where he announced the US 2 Georg F. Kennan, 1904–2005, was the US victory in the «cold war». Ambassador in the USSR in 14 May — 19 Sep- Unipolar doctrine found its expression in tember 1952. He wrote 21 books. J. Kennan the following aggressive actions of the Unit- was the author of the Doctrine of the Restraint ed States: of the USSR. In 1974–1975 J. Cannon founded —— The expansion of NATO and acceptance Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian studies, into its members the former republics of named after George Kennan Sr. the Soviet Union, although the govern- 10 Русская политология — Russian Political Science № 1, 2016 Topic of the issue: «Multipolar World of the XXI Century»

sand soldiers and officers killed and about 32 thousand wounded. Iraq lost its state- hood and, according to various estimates, from hundreds of thousands to a million of dead Iraq citizens. US military action in Iraq destroyed the balance of power in the region, and caused the appearing of the group «Islamic State» (banned in Russia). This ap- pears to be the result of the implementa- tion by the United States the doctrine of a unipolar world. Probably, in the same doctrine proves to be the cause of the crisis in the relations between the USA and Russia, as far as Russia adheres to the concept of Russian President Vladimir Putin: a multipolar world. The President of Rus- — The modern world is really multipolar, sia Vladimir Putin repeatedly confirmed its complex, and dynamic. This is an objective commitment to the system of international reality. And any attempt to build a model relations, in particular, in one of his inter- of the international relations, in which views before the BRICS summit in 2014 [4]. all the decisions are made out in the Y. Primakov outlined several objective in- framework of a sole pole, is ineffective, dicators of the fact, that the world becomes stumbling and doomed to failure. multipolar, and not unipolar. First, economic indicators confirm that ment of the Soviet Union was assured of the US is losing its leadership in the global that the expansion wouldn’t happen; economy. —— The withdrawal of the United States from In fact, according to the IMF1 in 2015, the the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The Trea- leader of the world’s GDP is China with a ty helped to keep the arms race; share of 17.08 %. USA the second with a share —— The bombing of Yugoslavia without the of 15.81 %. UN sanctions and despite the opinion Second, there is a shift in the position of of the leaders of the countries — NATO the Developing countries in the global finan- members; cial flows. The Developing countries become —— The occupation of Iraq, which was the re- the investors, depositing their financial result of fabricated by US Special services sources all around the world. data, proving that Iraq was producing nu- An example of such an investment was clear weapons. the purchasing of Swedish volvo from Ameri- It is obvious, that the US after the cold can Ford made by the Chinese concern Geely, war made a lot of errors, based on unipo- with the cost of the transaction of $ 1.8 bil- lar doctrine of the world. Moreover, such a lion. Earlier, in 2008 the Indian Tata Motors doctrine could not make the world safer, but bought from English Ford Automobile Com- rather created conditions for the emergence pany Jaguar and Land Rover. The cost of this of the military conflicts. And absolutely true transaction covered 2.3 billion dollars. was the book «Illusions of the Superpower» Third, the US share of the world ex- by D. Matlock, which noted that the United penses on research and development work States in its foreign policy after the collapse of the Soviet Union failed to take the advan- 1 World Economic Outlook Database, April tage of the «post-cold war» situation. 2016 // Site of the IMF — URL: http://www.imf. More than that, in the result of the mili- org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/ tary action in Iraq the US lost about 5 thou- index.aspx (accessed date: 21.06.2016). Gorokhov Andrey Anatolyevich 11 Yevgeny Maksimovich Primakov about a Multipolar World of the XXI Century

President of The People’s Republic of China XI Jinping:

— The further development of Rus- Prime Minister of India sian-Chinese partnership and strategic Narendra Modi: interaction are based on the mutual interests and the necessity to support justice — I see in Russia a powerful partner in the and equality in the world, establishing of economic transformation of India and in the peace in the world, prosperity of both the process of forming of a balanced, sta- Russia and China, which is an inevitable bled and inclusive multipolar world. choice coming out of the process of forming of a multipolar world.

According to Yevgeny Primakov’s fore- trend to reducing, which is unlike China knowledge, USA in the first two decades of and other countries. Russian researcher the XXI century will be still the strongest Y. I. Nikonova, basing on the objective data military and economic country in the world. analysis states, that «‘in the forming multi- At the same time, the new centers of pow- polar world there formed four main centers er, such as Brazil and South Africa will grow. of the scientific progress by 2011 — the Integration processes will continue in Latin United States (31 % of the world expendi- America, Asia, Africa and the Middle East. ture to parity the purchasing power), the That will lead to the formation of the new European Union (24 %), China (14 %) and Ja- «group centers» of the world economy and pan (11 %)» [5]. policy. Multipolarity of the modern world is like- We should also mention a very import- wise confirmed by the ranking of the most In- ant characteristic of the modern multipolar novative countries in the world, provided by world order. Yevgeny Primakov affirmed Bloomberg Agency. In 2016, South Korea was that multipolarity does not set the trend for recognized as the most innovative country. confrontation of different poles and centers Then comes Germany, Sweden, Japan and of power in the world. The reasons for this Switzerland. USA takes the 8th place, Rus- trend are integration processes between the sia — the 12-th, China — the 21-st, India — countries and the transnationalization of the the 45-th1. business activities.

1 These Are the World’s Most Innova- cles/2016-01-19/these-are-the-world-s- tive Economies // Site of Bloomberg — URL: most-innovative-economies (accessed date: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti- 21.06.2016). 12 Русская политология — Russian Political Science № 1, 2016 Topic of the issue: «Multipolar World of the XXI Century»

Multipolar or «nonpolar» world?

n his book «Thoughts aloud» Y. Primak- international organizations, social organi- ov wrote, that «after the end of the cold zations, armed groups, corporations, the Iwar a multipolar world system started its national networks of media, etc. ) can dom- forming» [6]. inate in the international relations. Such a In the process of forming of such a sys- supposition is based on the following state- tem, according to Primakov, integration ment: «In today’s world the power is not con- associations of the countries in the field of centrated; it is more and more scattered» economic and political agreements occur, [8]. However, behind the idea of nonpolarity bringing the stabilization of different re- Y. Primakov saw the attempt to restore the gions of the world. In addition, just for the unipolar system. Ideologists of nonpolarity sake of the stabilization of the relations see the results of its development in desta- in the vast Eurasian region Primakov pro- bilization and chaos, which will create the posed the idea of a strategic triangle «Rus- background for establishing of a new system sia — India — China». And this idea, in his of the global management of the United opinion, will serve the rapprochement be- States. In his work Haas, actually says that tween China and India, and thus, will reduce «non-polarity» will inevitably course the the tension between these great countries. «coordinated nonpolarity», which supposes Primakov noted that «the transition the «establishment of a Central group» of to a multipolar system is a process, not a the countries and other actors, inclined to single finite action. Therefore, different the idea of multilateralism [8]. and sometimes contradictory tendencies Yevgeny Primakov expressed disagree- appearing with the process are of great ment with the position of Haas that the influ- importance. Some of them are connected ence of national countries in the international with the unevenness of their development, relations declines. According to Primakov it is success or failures of integration associ- just the national countries that are still dom- ations. Proves to be of great importance inant in the regulation of different conflicts. the unstable ratio between, so to say, the E. Primakov regarded the Russian-Amer- course to reset the relationship and the in- ican journalist Nikolai Zlobin, the author of herited from the cold war line of conduct, the book «The Second New World Order», which countries used to apply during the as the ideologist of a «nonpolar world» [9]. confrontation. These two tendencies ap- Zlobin considers, that the agenda of the pres- pear in political, military and economic ar- ent day world is set not by superpowers, but eas. Therefore, the valid conclusion is that by small and medium countries. Y. Primakov a multipolar world order itself in conditions considered such an assessment of the world of globalization does not lead to conflict too superficial. situations and military collisions, but it The idea that the modern world is becom- does not exclude a very complicated envi- ing multipolar, is supported by the leaders of ronment in which the transition to such a many leading countries of the world. system takes place» [7]. In the support of the multipolar world or- However, not all the theorists of inter- der spoke in May 2014 President of China XI national relations agree with the thesis of a Jinping [10]. and in December 2015 Prime multipolar world of Yevgeny Primakov. Pres- Minister of India Narendra Modi [11]. ident of the Council on Foreign Relations Such statements made by the world lead- (USA) Richard Haas is considering the mod- ers confirm that Yevgeny Primakov was right ern world order as «nonpolar». This system in his assessment of the modern world as a assumes that different actors (countries, multipolar world. Gorokhov Andrey Anatolyevich 13 Yevgeny Maksimovich Primakov about a Multipolar World of the XXI Century

We recommend the following books of Y. M. Primakov 1. Challenges and alternatives of a multipolar world: the role of Russia. Moscow: Publishing House of Moscow State University, 2014, 320 p. (Library of Political Science Department of M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University). 2. Thoughts aloud. Moscow: Russian newspaper, 2011, 207 p. 3. Encounters in the crossings. Moscow: ZAO Publishing house Tsentrpoligraf, 2016, 607 p.

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9. Zlobin N. V. Vtoroy novyy mirovoy poryadok: geopoliticheskiye golovolomki [The Second new world order: geopolitical puzzles]. Moscow: Eksmo [Exmo], 2009, 316 p. 10. Beginning of Russian-Chinese talks in expanded format // the website of the President of Russia. Available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/21050 (accessed date: 12.06.2016). 11. Press statements following Russian-Indian talks. Available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/ events/president/news/51011 (date of access: 12.06.2016). 12. Pugwash is one of the oldest and leading international scientific governmental organizations in the field of security, disarmament and scientific staff cooperatio, the Nobel peace prize 1995 // the website of the Pugwash Committee at the Presidium of the Russian Acad- emy of Sciences. Available at: http://www.pugwash.ru/history (accessed date: 11.06.2016)