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Nuclear Nonproliferation in U.S.-Russian Relations: Challenges and Opportunities

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Nuclear Nonproliferation in U.S.-Russian Relations: Challenges and Opportunities PIR CENTER ÏÈÐ-ÖÅÍÒÐ Center for Policy Studies in Russia Öåíòð ïîëèòè÷åñêèõ èññëåäîâàíèé â Ðîññèè Vladimir Orlov, Roland Timerbaev, and Anton Khlopkov NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION IN U.S.-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES PIR Library Series 2002 This book has been prepared within the framework of the "Russia in Nuclear Nonproliferation: 1991-2001 and Beyond" research project carried out by the PIR Center since 1994. The study covers the period starting from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 until December 2001. The book gives a detailed description of Russia's nuclear nonproliferation policy, the way it was shaped, its particularities and changes in the recent decade. It also examines the problems of uneasy dialogue between Russia and the United States in the 1990s on such matters as export controls, illicit trafficking in nuclear material, disposition of excess weapons-usable nuclear material, etc. The authors analyze tentative results of U.S. assistance programs in the area of cooperative threat reduction. The book was written by leading Russian experts in the area of nuclear nonproliferation — researchers of the PIR Center. The monograph is published in Russian and in English. Its target audience is Russian and U.S. policymakers whether in legislature or in the executive branch, who are involved in formulating and implementing nonproliferation policies. The book is also recommendable to a wide range of diplomats, military, and international security experts. All right reserved. Printed in the Russian Federation. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the PIR Center. Published in 2002 in Russian Federation by Raduga Publishers, 3 Maliy Mogiltsevskiy Per., Moscow, 121921. For obtaining additional copies of the Nuclear Nonproliferation in U.S.-Russian Relations: Challenges and Opportunities, please contact Vladimir Siluyanov by phone (7-095) 234-0525 or at [email protected]. ISBN Copyright © PIR Center, 2002 CONTENTS Introduction......................................................................................... 5 Acknowledgements............................................................................... 10 Chapter I. Russian Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy and U.S.-Russian Nonproliferation Dialogue in the 1990s................................................ 12 Soviet Policy in the Area of Nuclear Nonproliferation. U.S.-Soviet Nonproliferation Dialogue....................................... 12 Russia as a Successor of the Soviet Union.................................. 16 Dynamics of Russian Nonproliferation Policy............................. 20 Russia's Neighbors in the CIS..................................................... 22 Nuclear Security.......................................................................... 33 Illicit Trafficking in Nuclear Material......................................... 37 The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism................................................ 49 The 1996 Moscow Nuclear Safety and Security Summit............ 58 Nuclear Export Controls............................................................. 65 Coordination of Nonproliferation Activities of the Russian Agencies....................................................................................... 82 Russia — Iraq............................................................................... 92 Russia — North Korea................................................................. 106 Russia — Iran............................................................................... 122 Russia and the IAEA................................................................... 136 Russia's Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy under President Putin............................................................................................ 140 Cooperation among Russian and U.S. NGOs in the Area of Nuclear Nonproliferation............................................................. 148 Chapter II. Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control in U.S.-Russian Relations in the 1990s............................................................................. 151 Nuclear Arms Reduction............................................................. 151 U.S. Cooperative Threat Reduction Assistance Programs to Russia....................................................................................... 162 The 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference..................... 182 CTBT........................................................................................... 192 The 2000 NPT Review Conference............................................. 198 Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones....................................................... 210 3 Chapter III. U.S.-Russian Relations in Nonproliferation and Disarmament: Prospects for Dialogue and Cooperation........................ 220 Interrelationship between Nonproliferation and Disarmament..... 220 Role of Nuclear Weapons and Relevance of Nuclear Deterrence in the Modern International System............................................. 222 Nuclear-Free World: Why It is Needed........................................ 232 A World without Nuclear Weapons: What Could It Look Like?... 236 Elimination of Nuclear Weapons: How to Start?.......................... 245 Some Practical Steps to Strengthen the International Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime.............................................................. 252 Chronology of Events in the Area of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control (1990-2001).................................................................. 260 Leaders of the Russian Federation and the United States on Nonproliferation Challenges and Strategic Dialogue............................. 277 Acronyms............................................................................................. 279 About the Authors................................................................................ 282 About the PIR Center.......................................................................... 284 4 INTRODUCTION When this book is sent for printing, the news agencies keep reporting on new cases of anthrax in the United States. Nowadays it is too difficult to assess the real scale of the threat, but it is clear that the terrorists, who use the weapons of mass destruction against the U.S. population, have managed to cause fear, uncertainty, and the feeling of vulnerability. Even Congress had to suspend its work. Under these circumstances, the risk of uncontrollable proliferation of WMD is growing and the world has to seek urgently the ways to combat this challenge. Prevention of WMD proliferation is the area where U.S. and Russia's vital interests coincide for objective reasons. This challenge is considered to be one of the major national security threats to both states. And above all, this is applicable to nuclear arms — the most dangerous of all known types of weapons. The developments of September 11, 2001 and the following establishment of the antiterrorist coalition may pave new ways to U.S.- Russian strategic partnership. The strategic rapprochement with the United States has become an important component of Vladimir Putin's foreign strategy. He strongly confirmed that position on the eve and during his visit to Washington DC and Crawford in November, 2001. The cooperation in counter-proliferation and counter-terrorism measures, in particular, in such sensitive areas as weapons of mass destruction, their components, their technologies, their delivery systems, and — last, but not least — cyberterrorism may become a key issue on the bilateral strategic agenda. Russia and the U.S., as major nuclear powers, are doomed to act together in the areas related to nuclear weapons and their proliferation. This dialogue requires a definite agenda. It also requires mutual trust. As President Vladimir Putin stated in November, 2001, "we should realize that nonproliferation is one of the most urgent current challenges, one of the most important contemporary problems. Probably, it is the most important one. And, increasing level of trust in each other, we should establish cooperation [in this area] similar to what we have in some other areas like fighting drug trafficking where our experts work closely and very efficiently with each other. I am confident that we will be able to achieve the same level of efficiency in preventing proliferation". However, other questions arise: what practical steps should be taken to prevent proliferation of nuclear arms, nuclear material and technology? 5 What domestic resources should be used to fulfill that task? What is the place of military power in the fight against nuclear proliferation? What is the place of national politics, and of multilateral and bilateral diplomatic efforts in curbing nuclear proliferation? As for the latter, the most pressing issue is, what role could be played by an effective bilateral Russian-American dialogue on nuclear nonproliferation, or, more broadly, on nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems. We say "could" because, in our opinion, such constant effective dialogue was absent in recent years even though multiple contacts on various aspects of nonproliferation did take place. Meanwhile, the pattern of Soviet-American dialogue on nonproliferation productively conducted even in the most tense periods of
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