OBJECTIVE ·· RELEVANT ·· RIGOROUS || JUNE/JULYJUNE 2020 ·2018 VOLUME · VOLUME 13, ISSUE 11, ISSUE 6 6 FEATURE ARTICLE A VIEW FROM THE CT FOXHOLE SPECIAL ISSUE Audrey Cronin, The Jihadi Threat Michael Nagata, COVID-19 & LTC(R)Magnus Bryan Ranstorp, Price to Indonesia Ali Soufan, and Counterterrorism Juan Former ZarateDirector, Kirsten E. Schulze Combatingon the challenges Terrorism ahead Center FEATURE ARTICLE Editor in Chief 1 A View from the CT Foxhole: A Virtual Roundtable on COVID-19 and Counterterrorism with Audrey Kurth Cronin, Lieutenant General (Ret) Paul Cruickshank Michael Nagata, Magnus Ranstorp, Ali Soufan, and Juan Zarate Paul Cruickshank and Don Rassler Managing Editor Kristina Hummel ANALYSIS EDITORIAL BOARD 16 The Security Threat COVID-19 Poses to the Northern Syria Detention Camps Holding Islamic State Members Colonel Suzanne Nielsen, Ph.D. Audrey Alexander Department Head Dept. of Social Sciences (West Point) 26 Pandemic Narratives: Pro-Islamic State Media and the Coronavirus Chelsea Daymon and Meili Criezis Brian Dodwell 33 The Limits of 'Shabaab-CARE': Militant Governance amid COVID-19 Director, CTC Christopher Hockey and Michael Jones Don Rassler 40 Iran's COVID-19 Disinformation Campaign Director of Strategic Initiatives, CTC Mark Dubowitz and Saaed Ghasseminejad This issue was produced with editorial 49 Pandemic Preparedness: A U.K. Perspective on Overlaps with Countering Terrorism support from CTC interns Marley Carroll, Nikita Malik Anyssia Kokinos, Kevin Laiveling, and Stephanie Lizzo. COVID-19 is arguably the biggest crisis the planet has faced since the Sec- ond World War and will likely have significant impacts on international CONTACT security in ways which can and cannot be anticipated. For this special issue Combating Terrorism Center on COVID-19 and counterterrorism, we convened five of the best and brightest thinkers in our field for a virtual roundtable on the challenges ahead. In the words of Magnus Ranstorp, “COVID-19 and U.S. Military Academy extremism are the perfect storm.” According to another of the panelists, Lieutenant General (Ret) 607 Cullum Road, Lincoln Hall Michael Nagata, “the time has come to acknowledge the stark fact that despite enormous expendi- West Point, NY 10996 tures of blood/treasure to ‘kill, capture, arrest’ our way to strategic counterterrorism success, there are more terrorists globally today than on 9/11, and COVID-19 will probably lead to the creation of Phone: (845) 938-8495 more.” Audrey Kurth Cronin put it this way: “COVID-19 is a boost to non-status quo actors of every Email: [email protected] type. Reactions to the pandemic—or more specifically, reactions to governments’ inability to respond to it effectively—are setting off many types of political violence, including riots, hate crimes, inter- Web: www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/ communal tensions, and the rise of criminal governance. Terrorism is just one element of the growing political instability as people find themselves suffering economically, unable to recreate their pre- SUBMISSIONS COVID lives.” The roundtable identified bioterrorism as a particular concern moving forward, with Juan Zarate noting that “the severity and extreme disruption of a novel coronavirus will likely spur The CTC Sentinel welcomes submissions. the imagination of the most creative and dangerous groups and individuals to reconsider bioterrorist Contact us at [email protected]. attacks.” Ali Soufan warned that “although the barriers to entry for terrorists to get their hands on bio weapons remain high, they are gradually being lowered due to technological advances and the de- mocratization of science.” The views expressed in this report are The special issue also features five articles. Audrey Alexander examines the security threat those of the authors and not of the U.S. COVID-19 poses to the northern Syria detention camps holding Islamic State members, drawing on Military Academy, the Department of the a wide range of source materials, including recent interviews she conducted with General Mazloum Army, or any other agency of the U.S. Abdi, the top commander of the SDF, and former U.S. CENTCOM Commander Joseph Votel. Chel- sea Daymon and Meili Criezis untangle the pandemic narratives spun by Islamic State supporters on- Government. line. Christopher Hockey and Michael Jones assess al-Shabaab’s response to the spread of COVID-19 in Somalia. Mark Dubowitz and Saeed Ghasseminejad document how the Iranian regime has spread Cover: COVID-19 coronavirus molecule, disinformation relating to the pandemic. Finally, Nikita Malik discusses the overlaps between pan- demic preparedness and countering terrorism from a U.K. perspective. March 24, 2020. (CDC/API/Gamma-Rapho Paul Cruickshank, Editor in Chief via Getty Images) JUNE 2020 CTC SENTINEL 1 A View from the CT Foxhole: A Virtual Roundtable on COVID-19 and Counterterrorism with Audrey Kurth Cronin, Lieutenant General (Ret) Michael Nagata, Magnus Ranstorp, Ali Soufan, and Juan Zarate By Paul Cruickshank and Don Rassler Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing and Audrey Kurth Cronin is a Professor at the School of International Financial Crimes where he led domestic and international efforts Service at American University and the Director of the Center for to attack terrorist financing and leverage Treasury powers in Security, Innovation and New Technology. She is the author of the national security. He is the global co-managing partner and chief 2020 book Power to the People: How Open Technological Innova- strategy officer for K2 Intelligence/Financial Integrity Network, tion is Arming Tomorrow’s Terrorists and How Terrorism Ends: the Chairman of the Center on Economic and Financial Power Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns. (CEFP) at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and a se- She has served in a variety of roles in the U.S. executive branch, nior national security analyst for NBC News. Follow @JCZarate1 including director of the core course in War and Statecraft at the U.S. National War College, and was a Specialist in Terrorism at Editor’s note: The virtual roundtable was conducted over email the Congressional Research Service, advising members of Congress between mid-May and mid-June 2020 and was lightly edited. in the aftermath of 9/11. Follow @akcronin CTC: COVID-19 has been described as a generation-defining Lieutenant General (Ret) Michael Nagata is the former Director, moment, with a scale and impact across various areas (eco- Directorate of Strategic Operational Planning at the U.S. National nomics, travel, personal interactions) even more profound than Counterterrorism Center and is now a Senior Vice President & 9/11. It has also been suggested that “Covid will permanently Strategic Advisor for CACI International and owner of Hanada change the way every generation lives.”1 As you think about Bridge LLC. He previously served as commander of Special Opera- COVID-19 and look toward the near-term future, what do you tions Command Central, where he helped to oversee the campaign see as the initial implications for the issues of terrorism and against the Islamic State. He had more than three decades in top counterterrorism? posts with Army and Joint Special Operations Forces, the U.S. intelligence community, and multiple assignments at the strategy Cronin: COVID-19 is a boost to non-status quo actors of every type. and policy levels of Washington, D.C. Reactions to the pandemic—or more specifically, reactions to gov- ernments’ inability to respond to it effectively—are setting off many Magnus Ranstorp is the Research Director at the Centre for types of political violence, including riots, hate crimes, intercom- Asymmetric Threat Studies at the Swedish Defense University and munal tensions, and the rise of criminal governance. Terrorism is Special Adviser at the European Union Radicalization Awareness just one element of the growing political instability as people find Network (RAN), a practitioner-led network of 7,000 practitioners themselves suffering economically, unable to recreate their pre- and policymakers working on CVE issues across the European COVID lives. Union. His research over the last three decades has focused on Hez- At the same time, traditional forces of order such as navies, bollah, al-Qa`ida, and the Islamic State. He previously developed armies, police forces, and even border guards are struggling to ex- the world-renowned Centre for the Study of Terrorism & Political ecute their missions as they face exposure, quarantine, contagion, Violence at the University of St. Andrews. Follow and infection. This affects the whole pipeline of training, educa- @MagnusRanstorp tion, and deployment of forces. Skills atrophy, and counterterrorism units miss opportunities to gather key intelligence and gradually Ali Soufan is the chief executive officer of the Soufan Group. As an tamp down the threat, as in the Sahel, Afghanistan, or Iraq. FBI special agent, he served on the frontline against al-Qa`ida Meanwhile, economic and political strengthening of a range of and became known as a top counterterrorism operative and inter- non-state actors is well in train, as people look for scapegoats and rogator. His most recent book, Anatomy of Terror: From the Death alternative sources of economic support. Criminal organizations of Bin Laden to the Rise of the Islamic State, was published in are investing their gambling- and drug-driven cash into distressed 2017. He is the author of several feature articles for CTC Sentinel,