RUSSIA in CRISIS: YELTSIN's LAST STAND Introduction Ever Since
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Russian History: a Brief Chronology (998-2000)
Russian History: A Brief Chronology (998-2000) 1721 Sweden cedes the eastern shores of the Baltic Sea to Russia (Treaty of Nystad). In celebration, Peter’s title Kievan Russia is changed from tsar to Emperor of All Russia Abolition of the Patrarchate of Moscow. Religious authority passes to the Holy Synod and its Ober- prokuror, appointed by the tsar. 988 Conversion to Christianity 1722 Table of Ranks 1237-1240 Mongol Invasion 1723-25 The Persian Campaign. Persia cedes western and southern shores of the Caspian to Russia Muscovite Russia 1724 Russia’s Academy of Sciences is established 1725 Peter I dies on February 8 1380 The Battle of Kulikovo 1725-1727 Catherine I 1480 End of Mongol Rule 1727-1730 Peter II 1462-1505 Ivan III 1730-1740 Anne 1505-1533 Basil III 1740-1741 Ivan VI 1533-1584 Ivan the Terrible 1741-1762 Elizabeth 1584-98 Theodore 1744 Sophie Friederike Auguste von Anhalt-Zerbst arrives in Russia and assumes the name of Grand Duchess 1598-1613 The Time of Troubles Catherine Alekseevna after her marriage to Grand Duke Peter (future Peter III) 1613-45 Michael Romanoff 1762 Peter III 1645-76 Alexis 1762 Following a successful coup d’etat in St. Petersburg 1672-82 Theodore during which Peter III is assassinated, Catherine is proclaimed Emress of All Russia Imperial Russia 1762-1796 Catherine the Great 1767 Nakaz (The Instruction) 1772-1795 Partitions of Poland 1682-1725 Peter I 1773-1774 Pugachev Rebellion 1689 The Streltsy Revolt and Suppression; End of Sophia’s Regency 1785 Charter to the Nobility 1695-96 The Azov Campaigns 1791 Establishment fo the Pale of Settlement (residential restrictions on Jews) in the parts of Poland with large 1697-98 Peter’s travels abroad (The Grand Embassy) Jewish populations, annexed to Russia in the partitions of Poland (1772, 1793, and 1795) and in the 1698 The revolt and the final suppression of the Streltsy Black Sea liitoral annexed from Turkey. -
The Russians Are Coming
CCC-LeBaron 1 (1-64) 8/16/02 9:36 AM Page 5 CHAPTER ONE The Russians Are Coming MIGHT NEVER HAVE GONE to Russia had it not been for two phone calls, one Ifax, and a submarine. The first call, in the summer of 1990, was from a friend who led a Boston-based research group called Defense and Disarmament. Together with the Soviet Academy of Sciences, his organization was sponsoring “Swords into Plowshares,” a conference at Harvard University focused on production conversion, military to civilian, in both the United States and the Soviet Union. Would I be interested in addressing that unusual as- sembly? I would indeed. Harvard’s venerable red brick buildings and the placid Charles River seemed an appropriate setting for the subject. But I noticed an important disparity. The Soviets sent high-ranking government officials and senior managers of the factories that produced military hardware. The United States was represented by a sprinkling of middle-level managers from military-industrial companies like General Electric and Raytheon. That the American companies attached little importance or urgency to con- verting from military to civilian production was evidenced by the ranks of their representatives. In their choice of delegation leader, the Soviets sent a very different sig- nal. Vladimir Koblov was first deputy chairman, and soon to be chairman, of 5 CCC-LeBaron 1 (1-64) 8/16/02 9:36 AM Page 6 6 RUSSIA the State Commission on Military Industrial Production of the Council of Ministers of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (U.S.S.R.) (the “State Commission”). -
Eastwest Institute
EASTWEST INSTITUTE Ukraine, EU, Russia: Challenges and Opportunities for NewRelations A conference initiated and organized by the EastWest Institute, in cooperation with the Carpathian Foundation and Ukrainian partners: the Institute for Regional and Euro-Integration Studies "EuroRegio Ukraine" and the National Association of Regional Development Agencies Kyiv, 10-11 February 2005 Venue: "European Hall", President-hotel "Kyivski", Hospitalna str., 12 Languages: English and Ukrainian **Please Note: The Chatham House Rule Applies** Thursday, 10 February 2005 8.30 - 9.00 Registration 9.00 - 09.15 Words of Welcome and Opening Remarks Mr John Edwin Mroz, President and CEO, EastWest Institute 9.15-9.45 Keynote speaker: Mr Borys Tarasyuk, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine 9.45-11.00 Session I Ukraine after the changes: new priorities for the new leadership Challenge of the session: What are the expectations, tasks and practical needs of Ukraine's leadership? Chair: 1 Dr Oleksandr Pavlyuk, Acting Plead of External Co-operation, OSCE, Vienna Speakers: Mr Oleksandr Moroz, Leader, Socialist party of Ukraine Mr Oleksandr Zinchenko, State Secretary of Ukraine (tbc) Mr Volodymyr Vdovychenko, Mayor of the City of Slavutych Mr Boris Sobolev, Vice President of the Kyiv Bank Union Respondents: Mr Ofer Kerzner, Chairman of First Ukrainian Development, Kyiv Dr. Bohdan Hawrylyshyn, Chairman of the International Centre for Policy Studies, Kyiv 7 /.00-11.30 Special address: President Viktor Yushchenko (invited) 11.30-12.00 Coffee Break 12.00-13.45 Session II European Neighbourhood Policy versus CIS integration: does Ukraine have to choose? Challenge of the session: May the two frameworks of integration work together? Chair: Dr Vasil Hudak, Vice President and Brussels Centre Director, EastWest Institute, Brussels Speakers: Mr Ihor Dir, Head of Department for European integration, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Ms Ana Palacio, Chairwoman of the Joint Parliamentary Committee for European Union Affairs and Former Foreign Minister of Spain, Madrid Mr. -
Organized Crime and the Russian State Challenges to U.S.-Russian Cooperation
Organized Crime and the Russian State Challenges to U.S.-Russian Cooperation J. MICHAEL WALLER "They write I'm the mafia's godfather. It was Vladimir Ilich Lenin who was the real organizer of the mafia and who set up the criminal state." -Otari Kvantrishvili, Moscow organized crime leader.l "Criminals Nave already conquered the heights of the state-with the chief of the KGB as head of a mafia group." -Former KGB Maj. Gen. Oleg Kalugin.2 Introduction As the United States and Russia launch a Great Crusade against organized crime, questions emerge not only about the nature of joint cooperation, but about the nature of organized crime itself. In addition to narcotics trafficking, financial fraud and racketecring, Russian organized crime poses an even greater danger: the theft and t:rafficking of weapons of mass destruction. To date, most of the discussion of organized crime based in Russia and other former Soviet republics has emphasized the need to combat conven- tional-style gangsters and high-tech terrorists. These forms of criminals are a pressing danger in and of themselves, but the problem is far more profound. Organized crime-and the rarnpant corruption that helps it flourish-presents a threat not only to the security of reforms in Russia, but to the United States as well. The need for cooperation is real. The question is, Who is there in Russia that the United States can find as an effective partner? "Superpower of Crime" One of the greatest mistakes the West can make in working with former Soviet republics to fight organized crime is to fall into the trap of mirror- imaging. -
ON the EFFECTIVE USE of PROXY WARFARE by Andrew Lewis Peek Baltimore, Maryland May 2021 © 2021 Andrew Peek All Rights Reserved
ON THE EFFECTIVE USE OF PROXY WARFARE by Andrew Lewis Peek A dissertation submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Baltimore, Maryland May 2021 2021 Andrew Peek All rights reserved Abstract This dissertation asks a simple question: how are states most effectively conducting proxy warfare in the modern international system? It answers this question by conducting a comparative study of the sponsorship of proxy forces. It uses process tracing to examine five cases of proxy warfare and predicts that the differentiation in support for each proxy impacts their utility. In particular, it proposes that increasing the principal-agent distance between sponsors and proxies might correlate with strategic effectiveness. That is, the less directly a proxy is supported and controlled by a sponsor, the more effective the proxy becomes. Strategic effectiveness here is conceptualized as consisting of two key parts: a proxy’s operational capability and a sponsor’s plausible deniability. These should be in inverse relation to each other: the greater and more overt a sponsor’s support is to a proxy, the more capable – better armed, better trained – its proxies should be on the battlefield. However, this close support to such proxies should also make the sponsor’s influence less deniable, and thus incur strategic costs against both it and the proxy. These costs primarily consist of external balancing by rival states, the same way such states would balance against conventional aggression. Conversely, the more deniable such support is – the more indirect and less overt – the less balancing occurs. -
Yevgeny Primakov's Operational Code and Russian Foreign Policy
University of Tampere Faculty of Management Politics/International Relations YEVGENY PRIMAKOV’S OPERATIONAL CODE AND RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY Pihla Bernier Master’s Thesis in International Relations Advisor: Tuomas Forsberg ABSTRACT University of Tampere Faculty of Management BERNIER, PIHLA: Yevgeny Primakov’s Operational Code and Russian Foreign Policy Master’s Thesis, 82 pages International Relations August 2018 Keywords: Yevgeny Primakov, Operational Code, Russian Foreign Policy, Russia, Primakov Doctrine Yevgeny Primakov was an important figure in both Soviet and Russian foreign policy circles throughout his lifetime until 2015. He was a critical leader in the 1990s holding positions of both Minister of Foreign Affairs and Prime Minister, which also coincided with times when Russia was charting a new foreign policy course. He reinvented a foreign policy school of thought called Statism which has been the most influential with Russian leaders for many years and continues to be so today. Current research has not adequately addressed his importance. This thesis set out to investigate his beliefs and worldview utilizing the operational code method using Alexander George’s ten question model. Research was conducted based on Primakov’s own writings, speeches and interviews. Yevgeny Primakov has been called both a westernizing leader and a hard-liner, but it was found both of these labels are incorrect. Rather, he should be viewed as a patriotic pragmatist. His actions were motivated by advancing Russian interests of which one of the greatest was restoring Russia as a major player in international relations again. His attitude towards the United States was complex, viewing them as a rival, yet not as an enemy. -
The Russian State Duma , On-Stage and Off: Inquiry, Impeachment , and Opposition
The Russian State Duma , On-Stage and Off: Inquiry, Impeachment , and Opposition MARTHA MERRITT L egislatures in mixed regimes the world over are often less popular than pres- identa, dismissed as "talking shops" while executive power lays claim to active and decisive leadership.l This tendency is clear in Russia's relatively new political institutions, with the State Duma rated in December 1999 as the Ieast trusted organ of government.z Both reflecting and helping to consolidate this atti- tude, the harsh national media routinely belittle the Duma: Deputies are said to "scurry like cockroaches" as they register electronic votes for themselves and their absent colleagues during the allotted fifteen-second period, the television news describes deputies as "babbling" while reporters discuss crises as yet unad- dressed, and during election periods television talk shows run polis to ask view- ers whether the country needs a national legislature at all. Not surprisingly, those who choose to telephone in this most unrepresentative of surveys defeat scattered support and record thousands of antiparliament "votes" Duma-bashing is something of a national sport in Russia, but it was also a use- ful resource for executive power as exercised by President Yeltsin. Although some commentators predicted a dramatic lessening of tension between Yeltsin's suc- cessor and the Duma after the relatively pro-government parliamentary elections of December 1999,3 the very majority that they had anticipated led to a dramat- ic walk-out of minority parties in early 2000 when the two largest legislative blocs, the Communists and Unity, found common ground in dividing committee chairperson positions. -
Russian Strategy Towards Ukraine's Presidential Election
BULLETIN No. 49 (49) August 19, 2009 © PISM Editors: Sławomir Dębski (Editor-in-Chief), Łukasz Adamski, Mateusz Gniazdowski, Beata Górka-Winter, Leszek Jesień, Agnieszka Kondek (Executive Editor), Łukasz Kulesa, Ernest Wyciszkiewicz Russian Strategy towards Ukraine’s Presidential Election by Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz Dmitry Medvedev’s letter to Viktor Yushchenko is a clear signal of Russia’s intention to influ- ence internal developments in Ukraine, including the course of the presidential campaign. In the run-up to the January 2010 poll, unlike in the period preceding the Orange Revolution, Russia will very likely refrain from backing just a single candidate, and instead will seek a deepening of the existing divisions and further destabilization on the Ukrainian political scene, destabilization which it sees as helping to protect Russian interests in Ukraine. Medvedev’s Letter. In an open letter to Viktor Yushchenko, dated 11 August, Dmitry Medvedev put the blame for the crisis in bilateral relations on the Ukrainian president, and he explained that the arrival of the new ambassador to Kiev, Mikhail Zurabov—replacing Viktor Chernomyrdin, who was recalled last June—would be postponed. Medvedev accused his Ukrainian counterpart of having knowingly abandoned the principles of friendship and partnership with Russia during the past several years. Among the Yushchenko administration’s alleged anti-Russian actions, he listed weapons shipments and support extended to Georgia in last year’s armed conflict in South Ossetia; endeavors to gain -
The Second Chechen War: the Information Component
WARNING! The views expressed in FMSO publications and reports are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. The Second Chechen War: The Information Component by Emil Pain, Former Russian Ethno-national Relations Advisor Translated by Mr. Robert R. Love Foreign Military Studies Office, Fort Leavenworth, KS. This article appeared in The linked image cannot be displayed. The file may have been moved, renamed, or deleted. Verify that the link points to the correct file a Military Review July-August 2000 In December 1994 Russian authorities made their first attempt to crush Chechen separatism militarily. However, after two years of bloody combat the Russian army was forced to withdraw from the Chechen Republic. The obstinacy of the Russian authorities who had decided on a policy of victory in Chechnya resulted in the deaths of at least 30,000 Chechens and 5,000 Russian soldiers.1 This war, which caused an estimated $5.5 billion in economic damage, was largely the cause of Russia's national economic crisis in 1998, when the Russian government proved unable to service its huge debts.2 It seemed that after the 1994-1996 war Russian society and the federal government realized the ineffectiveness of using colonial approaches to resolve ethnopolitical issues.3 They also understood, it seemed, the impossibility of forcibly imposing their will upon even a small ethnoterritorial community if a significant portion of that community is prepared to take up arms to defend its interests. -
Russia Intelligence” Be Conciliatory on the Gas Question
N°59 - July 3 2008 Published every two weeks/International Edition CONTENTS DIPLOMACY P. 1-2 Politics & Government c Will Russia place its bets on Yulia Timoshenko? DIPLOMACY cWill Russia place its bets on What’s to be done? The famous question posed in his time by Lenin is back on the agenda and, Yulia Timoshenko? with regard to Ukraine, will become increasingly acute in Moscow. Ukraine is once again the Kremlin’s ALERTS main diplomatic concern. The expansion of NATO to the East, the future of the Black Sea fleet and cViktor Chernomyrdin gets Sebastopol, and, of course, the gas question count among the most sensitive issues seen from Moscow. Af- ready to leave. ter having got its fingers burnt during the “orange revolution” at the end of 2004, Russia carefully kept out FOCUS of Ukraine’s political jousting including during the political crisis in Kyiv in May 2007 and during the early cThe Supreme Court, the new general election of 30 September last year. The approaching presidential election (expected at the end of theatre of the Confrontation 2009 or beginning of 2010) and the geopolitical stakes affecting Ukraine being considered in Moscow as between Viktor Yushchenko matters of the country’s vital interests, it is very likely that Russia is once again seeking to influence the and Yulia Timoshenko destiny of its neighbour. P. 3-4 Business & Networks In this context, the visit of the Ukrainian prime minister to Moscow on 28 June and her talks with her FOCUS opposite number Vladimir Putin, were awaited with interest. It is well known that until now Russia had c The Vanco affair constantly snubbed Yulia Timoshenko, considering her as not very dependable and out of control, and de- ALERTS spite the ideological chasm separating the Ukrainian president and his Russian opposite numbers, had pre- c Towards a re-launch of ferred to deal with Viktor Yushchenko. -
Russia and Asia: the Emerging Security Agenda
Russia and Asia The Emerging Security Agenda Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI is an independent international institute for research into problems of peace and conflict, especially those of arms control and disarmament. It was established in 1966 to commemorate Sweden’s 150 years of unbroken peace. The Institute is financed mainly by the Swedish Parliament. The staff and the Governing Board are international. The Institute also has an Advisory Committee as an international consultative body. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. Governing Board Professor Daniel Tarschys, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Oscar Arias Sánchez (Costa Rica) Dr Willem F. van Eekelen (Netherlands) Sir Marrack Goulding (United Kingdom) Dr Catherine Kelleher (United States) Dr Lothar Rühl (Germany) Professor Ronald G. Sutherland (Canada) Dr Abdullah Toukan (Jordan) The Director Director Dr Adam Daniel Rotfeld (Poland) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Signalistg. 9, S-1769 70 Solna, Sweden Cable: SIPRI Telephone: 46 8/655 97 00 Telefax: 46 8/655 97 33 E-mail: [email protected] Internet URL: http://www.sipri.se Russia and Asia The Emerging Security Agenda Edited by Gennady Chufrin OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 1999 OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York Athens -
Ukraine and NATO: Deadlock Or Re-Start? Ukraineukraine and and NATO: NATO: Ukraine Has Over the Past Ten Years Developed a Very Close Partnership with NATO
Ukraine and NATO: Deadlock or Re-start? UkraineUkraine and and NATO: NATO: Ukraine has over the past ten years developed a very close partnership with NATO. Key areas of Deadlock or Re-start? consultation and co-operation include, for instance, peacekeeping operations, and defence and Deadlock or Re-start? security sector reform. NATO’s engagement serves two vital purposes for Ukraine. First, it enhan- Jakob Hedenskog ces Ukraine’s long-term security and serves as a guarantee for the independence of the state; and JAKOB HEDENSKOG second, it promotes and encourages democratic institutionalisation and spreading of democratic norms and values in the country. JAKOB HEDENSKOG Ukraine and NATO: Deadlock or Re-start NATO’s door for Ukraine remains open. The future development of the integration depends on Ukraine’s correspondence to the standards of NATO membership, on the determination of its political leadership, and on an effective mobilisation of public opinion on NATO membership. This report shows that Ukraine has made progress in reaching the standards for NATO membership, especially in the spheres of military contribution and interoperability. However the absence of national consensus and lack of political will and strategic management of the government hamper any effective implementation of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. It is also crucial to neutralise Russia’s influence, which seriously hampers Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic course. Leading representati- ves of the current leadership, especially Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and his Party of Regions of Ukraine, prefer for the moment continued stable relations with Russia rather than NATO mem- ? bership. Jakob Hedenskog is a security policy analyst at the Swedish Defence Re- search Agency (FOI) specialised on Ukraine.