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Russia and Asia The Emerging Security Agenda Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI is an independent international institute for research into problems of peace and conflict, especially those of arms control and disarmament. It was established in 1966 to commemorate Sweden’s 150 years of unbroken peace. The Institute is financed mainly by the Swedish Parliament. The staff and the Governing Board are international. The Institute also has an Advisory Committee as an international consultative body. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. Governing Board Professor Daniel Tarschys, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Oscar Arias Sánchez (Costa Rica) Dr Willem F. van Eekelen (Netherlands) Sir Marrack Goulding (United Kingdom) Dr Catherine Kelleher (United States) Dr Lothar Rühl (Germany) Professor Ronald G. Sutherland (Canada) Dr Abdullah Toukan (Jordan) The Director Director Dr Adam Daniel Rotfeld (Poland) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Signalistg. 9, S-1769 70 Solna, Sweden Cable: SIPRI Telephone: 46 8/655 97 00 Telefax: 46 8/655 97 33 E-mail: [email protected] Internet URL: http://www.sipri.se Russia and Asia The Emerging Security Agenda Edited by Gennady Chufrin OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 1999 OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York Athens Auckland Bangkok Bogotá Buenos Aires Calcutta Cape Town Chennai Dar es Salaam Delhi Florence Hong Kong Istanbul Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Mumbai Nairobi Paris São Paulo Singapore Taipei Tokyo Toronto Warsaw and associated companies in Berlin Ibadan Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries Published in the United States by Oxford University Press Inc., New York © SIPRI 1999 The moral rights of the authors have been asserted First published 1999 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of SIPRI or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organizations. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to SIPRI, Signalistgatan 9, S-169 70 Solna, Sweden You must not circulate this book in any other binding or cover and you must impose the same condition on any acquirer British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Data available ISBN 0-19-829654-1 Typeset and originated by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Printed in Great Britain on acid-free paper by Biddles Ltd., Guildford and King’s Lynn Contents Preface xiii Acknowledgements xiv Acronyms and abbreviations xv 1. Introduction 1 Gennady Chufrin I. Asia in the post-Soviet foreign policy of Russia 1 II. Research objectives 4 III. The period covered 5 IV. The structure of the volume 6 Part I. The Asian dimensions of Russian foreign and security policy Map of Russia in Eurasia 10 2. Russia and Asia: challenges and opportunities for national and 11 international security Vladimir Baranovsky I. Introduction 11 II. Factors in Russia’s Asia policy 12 III. Russia’s stakes in Central Asia 17 IV. Russia’s perspectives on South-West Asia 21 V. Russia in South Asia 25 VI. Russia in the Asia–Pacific area 26 VII. Conclusions 31 3. Between Europe and Asia: the search for Russia’s civilizational 33 identity Igor V. Podberezsky I. Introduction 33 II. Russia as European 34 III. Russia as Asian 37 IV. Russia as Eurasian 40 V. Russia’s civilizational identity and its foreign and security 46 policy thinking VI. Conclusions 50 vi RUSSIA AND ASIA 4. Domestic developments in Russia 52 Nodari Simonia I. Introduction 52 II. The nature of political power in Russia 52 III. The formation of bureaucratic capitalism and the emergence 54 of new foreign policy actors IV. The armed forces and the defence industry as factors in 61 Russia’s foreign policy V. The Russian regions as foreign policy actors 71 VI. 1998: crisis of the ultra-liberal model 75 Part II. Russia’s stakes in Central Asia Map of Central Asia 82 5. The emerging geopolitical balance in Central Asia: a Russian view 83 Vitaly V. Naumkin I. Introduction 83 II. The geopolitical forces in Central Asia 83 III. Threats to security 88 IV. Conclusions 99 Table 5.1. Quantities of drugs seized by the Tajik Ministry of the 93 Interior, 1991–95 Table 5. 2. Immigration to the Russian Federation from Central Asia, 96 1996 Table 5.3. Immigration of Kazakhs to Kazakhstan, 1991–94 98 Figure 5.1. Existing and possible future oil routes from Central Asia 90 6. The policy of Russia in Central Asia: a perspective from 100 Kazakhstan Konstantin Syroezhkin I. Introduction 100 II. The course of Russian policy 100 III. Russia and Central Asia: mutual interests 106 IV. Conclusions 108 Table 6.1. Ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers in Central Asia, 1989 102 7. The policy of Russia in Central Asia: a perspective from Tajikistan 110 Mouzaffar Olimov I. Introduction 110 II. The role of Russia in the inter-Tajik conflict settlement 113 III. Military cooperation between Russia and Tajikistan 114 IV. Trade and economic ties 118 V. Conclusions 120 CONTENTS vii 8. Russia’s policy options in Central Asia 123 Irina D. Zviagelskaya I. Introduction 123 II. The progress of Russian policy 124 III. Political approaches 127 IV. Economic links 130 V. Problems of security 132 VI. Conclusions 136 Table 8.1. Russia’s trade with the Central Asian republics, 1991–96 131 9. Central Asia, Russia and the West 137 Martha Brill Olcott I. Introduction 137 II. Working out the terms of the divorce 143 III. Accepting international direction 145 IV. The coming threats 149 V. What if things go sour? 152 Table 9.1. Foreign direct investment in the Central Asian countries, 146 1993–97 Table 9.2. Central Asian production of oil and natural gas 148 Table 9.3. Percentage change in real GDP in the Central Asian 150 countries, 1993–97 Part III. Russia’s perspectives on South-West Asia Map of South-West Asia 156 10. Russia’s assets and liabilities in South-West Asia 157 Vladimir I. Maksimenko I. Introduction 157 II. The Caspian Sea Basin 160 III. Turkey 162 IV. Iran 165 V. Afghanistan 166 VI. The future of Iraq and the security threats in the Gulf 168 VII. Conclusions 169 11. Russian–Turkish relations 172 Victor Nadein-Raevsky I. Introduction: the historical development of Russian–Turkish 172 relations II. The newly independent countries of Central Asia 174 III. The oil pipeline routes 177 IV. Conclusions 179 viii RUSSIA AND ASIA 12. Iran and Russia: neighbours without common borders 181 Abbas Maleki I. Introduction 181 II. The present situation 182 III. The Russian elites 183 IV. The Iranian elites 185 V. Cooperation at the international level 185 VI. Cooperation at the regional level 187 VII. Bilateral relations 192 VIII. Conclusions 195 13. Russian–Afghan relations 197 Vyacheslav Belokrenitsky I. Introduction 197 II. The stages of Russian disengagement 198 III. The extent of Russian involvement 199 IV. Russia’s security concerns 201 V. Afghanistan and Russian policy in Central and South-West 203 Asia VI. Prospects for a settlement in Afghanistan and the future of 204 Russian–Afghan relations 14. Russia and South-West Asia: a view from the region 207 Duygu Bazoglu Sezer I. Introduction 207 II. Russia’s ‘south’ in historical context 209 III. Ethnic separatism in the southern Caucasus 210 IV. Islamic fundamentalism in the expanded Middle East 213 V. Encroachments by regional and extra-regional powers 214 VI. Neo-imperialist impulses in the ‘near abroad’ 217 VII. The Middle East: a partner in the search for a multipolar 218 world order? VIII. Conclusions 225 Part IV. Russia’s perspectives on South Asia Map of South Asia 228 15. Russia’s security and the geopolitical situation in South Asia 229 Vladimir Moskalenko and Tatiana Shaumian I. Introduction 229 II. Sources of instability 230 III. Russia and South Asia: geopolitical aspects 233 IV. The conflict potential of South Asia and Russia’s security 236 V. Nuclear weapon proliferation 238 VI. The Kashmir problem 241 VII. Conclusions 243 CONTENTS ix 16. Russia in South Asia: a view from India 247 Vinay Shukla I. Introduction 247 II. South Asia: Russia’s strategic neighbour 247 III. Indian–Russian relations after the end of the USSR 251 IV. Russia and Pakistan 254 V. The nuclear dimension in the South Asian security calculus 256 VI. Russia’s dilemma 258 VII. Outside players in South Asia 263 VIII. From special relationship to strategic partnership in the 265 next millennium IX. Conclusions 269 Part V. Russia in Asia–Pacific Map of North-East Asia 272 17. Russia in the Asia–Pacific area: challenges and opportunities 273 Vyacheslav B. Amirov I. Introduction 273 II. The new Russia’s posture in the Asia–Pacific area 275 III. The Russian far east 276 IV. Russia’s place in the region: an agenda for the future 278 V. Final considerations 286 18. Sino-Russian relations after the break-up of the Soviet Union 288 Chen Qimao I. Introduction 288 II. The development of relations 289 III. The foundation of the relationship 292 IV. Problems 293 V. Conclusions: Sino-Russian relations in the future 297 Table 18.1. Bilateral trade between China and Russia, 1991–97 294 19. Russia and China: what is in the pipeline? 301 Yuri V.
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