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Climate Change in Cyprus: Impacts and Adaptation Policies 1 Cyprus Economic Policy Review, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 21-37 (2012) 1450-4561 Climate Change in Cyprus: Impacts and Adaptation Policies Theodoros Zachariadis* Department of Environmental Science and Technology, Cyprus University of Technology Abstract This paper provides an overview of facts and projections related to climate change in Cyprus until the end of the 21st century. It highlights the main climate change impacts foreseen and presents recommendations for the preparation of a national adaptation strategy. Coping with climate change is possible, provided that proactive actions are taken by both the public and the private sector. Public authorities need to set clear priorities and implement well designed policies. Most importantly, adequate monitoring mechanisms should be set up in order to provide much needed data which can send early warnings to policy makers and the public and can help avoid large natural and economic damages at a later stage. Enabling private adaptation investments and properly pricing the use of natural resources are key priorities for investing in a climate resilient economy. Keywords: Climate change, natural resources, pricing. 1. Introduction According to the current scientific consensus, warming of the global climate system seems to be unambiguous, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levels (IPCC, 2007). In the European continent, Mediterranean Europe is expected to experience the most adverse climate change effects. Therefore, Cyprus is located in a hot spot and is projected to face significant temperature increases and decline in rainfall levels. As a result, serious negative effects of climate change should be expected in the coming decades in various sectors. This paper provides an overview of facts and projections related to climate change for Europe, Mediterranean and Cyprus until the end of the 21st century. It highlights the main climate change impacts, focuses on specific effects on Cyprus and presents recommendations for the preparation of a * Address: P.O. Box 50329, 3603 Limassol, Cyprus. E-mail: [email protected]. 22 national adaptation strategy. What follows is based on a review by Shoukri and Zachariadis (2012) of the most important recent studies on climate change, including reports from international, European and Mediterranean institutions, as well as from research projects and scientific articles. We have also benefited from information gathered through personal communication with public authorities, non-governmental organizations and researchers. In general, it is expected that climate change will exacerbate the pressures on the country‟s natural resources, which are already stressed due to the island‟s semi-arid climatic conditions. As a consequence, adverse effects are projected on water availability, agricultural production, nature, human health, energy needs and tourist inflows. These are explained in more detail in this paper. Such effects, however, are not inevitable. Coping with climate change is possible, provided that proactive actions are taken by both the public and the private sector. Therefore, this paper ends with a list of adaptation measures by sector and discusses economic and fiscal aspects of such policies. Public authorities need to set clear priorities and implement well designed policies in order to mitigate the main adverse impacts outlined in the paper. Adapting to climate change will involve both private and public expenditures which, if carefully implemented, may help the society avoid larger costs from serious climate change induced damages in the future. 2. Climate projections for Europe and Cyprus According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change is a change in the state of the climate that can be empirically identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of climate properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. As anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are primarily responsible for recent climate changes, it is the control of these emissions that can help stabilise the earth‟s climate. Therefore, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) focuses specifically on anthropogenic climate change, i.e. „the change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods‟. Recent observations confirm that the global mean temperature has increased by 0.8°C compared with pre-industrial times for land and 23 oceans, and by 1.0°C for land alone. Europe has warmed more than the global average (1.0 and 1.2°C, respectively), especially in the south-west, the north-east and mountainous areas. Projections suggest a further temperature increase in Europe, higher than the average warming predicted on a global scale (EEA, 2008). Despite the many uncertainties associated with climate model simulations, many features of the simulated climate change in Europe and the Mediterranean are qualitatively consistent among the different models employed by the scientific community. Thus the most important projections for Europe are summarised below (IPCC, 2007; EEA, 2008): Temperature increases from 1.0°C to 5.5°C should be anticipated by the end of the 21st century, which are higher than projected global warming (1.8-4.0°C), with the largest warming over Eastern and Northern Europe in winter, and over Southern Europe and Mediterranean in summer. Changes in rainfall show more spatially variable trends across Europe. Annual rainfall changes are already exacerbating differences between a wet northern part (an increase of 10-40 % during the 20th century) and a dry southern part (a decrease of up to 20% in some parts of Southern Europe). The intensity of rainfall extremes has increased in the past 50 years, and these events are projected to become more frequent. Dry periods are projected to increase in length and frequency, especially in Southern Europe. The annual number of precipitation (rainfall) days is very likely to decrease in the Mediterranean area. The risk of summer drought is likely to increase in Central Europe and the Mediterranean. High-temperature extreme events like hot days, tropical nights and heat waves have become more frequent. According to projections, Southeast Europe will be among the most affected world regions in the years to come. Sea level and sea surface temperature of some European seas could rise more than the global average. 24 3. Climate change impacts by sector On a global scale, climate change is associated with a wide range of consequences, such as changes in rainfall levels, sea level rise, droughts, glaciers loss, melting of snow and ice sheets and extreme weather events like heat waves, floods and storms. These primary effects of global warming are leading to successive cumulative impacts on various sectors. Table 1 provides an overview of the type and magnitude of these effects in Europe. It is evident that Mediterranean Europe is expected to experience the most adverse climate change effects compared to other European regions. Therefore, this section highlights the major impacts and focuses on the most vulnerable sectors for Cyprus. TABLE 1 Summary of climate change impacts in Europe and their intensity Climate change indicator Northern Central & Mediterranean Europe Eastern Europe Direct losses from weather disasters M(-) M(-) H( -) River flood disasters M(-) H(-) L(-) Coastal flooding H(-) M(-) H(-) Public water supply and drinking water L(-) L(-) H(-) Crop yields in agriculture H(+) Μ(-) H(-) Crop yields in forestry Μ(+) L(-) H(-) Biodiversity Μ(+) Μ(-) H(-) Energy for heating and cooling Μ(+) L(+) H(-) Hydropower & cooling for thermal plants Μ(+) M(-) H(-) Tourism and recreation Μ(+) L(+) Μ(-) Health L(-) Μ(-) H(-) Source: Behrens et al. (2010). Notes: H: High; M: Medium; L: Low; (+): Positive impact; (-): Negative impact. 3.1. Water resources Temperature rise has already affected the water cycle globally, as observed by the occurrence of events such as reduced rainfall, altered patterns of snowfall as well as melting of snow and ice caps, increased frequency and intensity of droughts, and increasing water temperature and changes in soil humidity. The above events pose direct and cumulative impacts on water resources. In turn, stressed water resources pose adverse effects on economic sectors like tourism, industry, agriculture and food production; 25 they may additionally lead to further adverse societal impacts, changes in land use and economic activities and further urbanisation. The Mediterranean is very likely to face continuous droughts and hence suffer from increasing water scarcity, declining crop yields and desertification. Water availability may fall by 20-30% under a 2°C increase global warming scenario and by 40-50% under a 4°C warming scenario. Summer water flows may be reduced very substantially. Water demand for agriculture, which has already risen considerably in Mediterranean areas in the last decades, is projected to continue, thus increasing competition for water between sectors and uses (EEA, 2008). Problems related to the quality of drinking water will be exacerbated.
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