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Climate Change in Cyprus

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Climate Change in Cyprus Pan-European Symposium on Water and Sanitation Safety Planning and Extreme Weather Events Adaptation of Water to Climate Change in Cyprus Dr. Kyriaki Ioannou Water Development Department Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment 6-7 April, 2017 Bilthoven, The Netherlands The Climate is changing… Due to: ** natural causes: Variations of solar radiation Volcanic eruptions Reflection of solar heat from earth And ** anthropogenic: increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that bind heat Causing Various and significant impact in key economic sectors and vulnerable social groups The increase of temperature on the planet by 2100 in comparison with the temperatures of 1990, according to the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change of the United Nations (IPCC) will be approximately between +1.4°C and +5.8°C The 25 hotspots. The hotspot expanses comprise 30-3% of the red areas Source: Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities (Myers et al., 2000) Climate Change in Cyprus The change is already evident mainly by the ….mean annual temperature increase The average annual temperature in the period 1991-2007 Is 0.5οC higher than that of the 1961-1990 period . ….mean annual rainfall decrease The average annual rainfall in the period 1991-2008 is 9% lower than that of the 1961-1990 period Source : CYPADAPT 2012 Climate Change in Cyprus According to the above rates it is expected that by 2050…. • The average annual rainfall will decrease by 10-15% • The average annual temperature will increase by 1.0 - 1.5οC • Extreme weather events (droughts, heatwaves, dust episodes, floods, windstorms etc.) will be more frequent, more intense and widespread ……in comparison with the corresponding values for the period 1961-1990 The projected changes in temperature are remarkable Changes in TX and TN range from 1.3 - 1.9oC and 1.0 - 2.0 oC with spatial variations respectively Changes in (a) average annual maximum temperature (TX) and (b) average annual minimum temperature (TN), between the reference period (1961-1990) and the future period (2021-2050) The range from 1.0°C to 2.0°C with spatial variations CYPADAPT 2013 The projected precipitation will be decreased with seasonal and regional variations The average annual total precipitation will be slightly decreased (10-20 mm/year) with seasonal and regional variations in the near future period, but will be significantly reduced (90-130 mm/year) and more spatially variable between 2071-2100. (with high uncertainty due to the large temporal variability of rainfall and the large variations of future projected changes among models) Changes in annual total precipitation between the future (2021-2050) and control period (1961-1990) CYPADAPT 2013 The projected worsening of extreme events •Extreme weather events: heat wave, drought, flood, storms * The maximum length of dry spells (precipitation<0.5mm) is expected to increase by 10 to 12 days on average *The number of heat waves and very hot days (temperature > 35°C), will be increased averagely by 10 to 30 days on annual basis, depending on the region. *The number of tropical nights (minimum temperature > 20°C) is also expected to increase by 30-60 nights on annual basis, depending on the region. *Droughts and dry periods are projected to increase in length and frequency (> 25 of dry days by 2080) *The annual maximum total rainfall over 1 day is slightly increased of about 1-4 mm .The intensity and frequency of rainfall extremes, is projected to modifications also. •Sea surface temperature is expected to increase farther Warming Levantine Basin at average rate 0.065oC per year •Sea level rise in Eastern Mediterranean is expected to be about 0.5m to 1.0 m, by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Relative humidity shows negative though small changes, (about 0.5% decrease by 2100) •The number of windy days (with average wind speed of 5m/s) will decreases in distant future Other climatic factors that need further investigation are the increase in carbon dioxide CO2 and ozon O3 Ways to address climate change • Mitigation measures Reducing greenhouse gas emissions • Adaptation measures To tackle the unavoidable impacts on current and future climate change • Managing the ipmacts/risks of climate change With the combination of both mitigation and adaptation actions The basic framework for the effective and timely treatment of adverse effects of climate change is the adaptation strategy The National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change the LIFE+ project: CYPADAPT Start date: September 1st, 2011 - End date: March 31st, 2014 Duration: 31 months Project budget: 1.358.847 € (50% EC funding) Project partners: Coordinating beneficiary: Department of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Environment of Cyprus Associated beneficiaries: National Technical University of Athens National Observatory of Athens www.moa.gov.cy/environment Aim and Objectives The aim of the Adaptation Strategy is to strengthen and/or improve the adaptability of Cyprus to early and effectively address the negative effects of climate change with the simultaneous exploitation of challenges and opportunities This has been achieved through specific objectives: •Identification of current climate change and its impacts •Prediction of future climate changes and assessment of their potential impacts •Evaluation of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity of the various systems, sectors or social groups to climate change •Estimation of limits, barriers and opportunities associated with climate change •Selection of appropriate adaptation actions and measures through multi-criteria analysis and consultation with stakeholders Selected climate change adaptation policy areas Adaptation four critical stages of the process Monitoring Evaluation Re-assessment Corrective Actions Impact assessment Planning and Implementation Monitoring and of systems and their Designing of of adaptation evaluation vulnerability adaptation options Continuous involvement of all stakeholders Knowledge database and Communication Platform Focus on Water Relationship between climate changes and impacts on the water sector Potential climate changes Impact - Increased water temperatures Increased temperature - Increase in evaporation - Water availability reduction Increased evapotranspiration - Lower replenishments rates (lower groundwater levels) - Salinisation of water resources - Decrease in runoff - More widespread water stress - Increased water pollution and deterioration of water quality due to lower dissolution of sediments, Decreased precipitation, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, pathogens, pesticides and salt including increased droughts - Decreased rates of groundwater recharge - Salinisation of coastal aquifers due to overpumping motivated by insufficient water supply Increase in interannual - Increase in the difficulty of flood control and reservoir utilization during precipitation variability the flooding season - Flooding Increase in heavy precipitation - Adverse effects in quality of surface water and groundwater - Contamination of water supply events - Lower replenishment rates in the aquifers of the mountain areas due to steep slopes - Increased algae growth and reduced dissolved oxygen levels in water bodies which may lead to eutrophication and loss of fish Increase in surface water temperature - Prolonged lake stratification with decreases in surface layer nutrient concentration and prolonged depletion of oxygen in deeper layers - Changes in mixing patterns and self purification capacity - Salinisation of water resources Sea level rise - Salinisation of coastal aquifers (minor effect) Future Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of Cyprus Source: CYPADAPT 2013 Vulnerability Selected Indicators Vulnerability Selected Indicators variable variable Water availability Water availability • Increase water storage capacity • Sensitivity of runoff to changes in rainfall • Inter-basin water transfer • Dam inflow variability • Artificial aquifer recharge • Number of groundwater bodies overexploited • Water import • Number of groundwater bodies in bad quantitative • Use of desalinated water Sensitivity status • Use of treated water • Freshwater availability per capita • Stormwater use • Replacement of networks • Water Exploitation Index Adaptive • Improving water use efficiency in irrigation • Water availability index capacity • Number of years water demand exceeded amount of • Water allocation available freshwater resources • Control groundwater overexploitation • Use of water supply meters • Redistribution of irrigated land • Water pricing • Number of dams presenting decreasing trend • Subsidies for drinking water savings Exposure • Number of groundwater bodies in bad quantitative • Awareness campaigns status • Improving monitoring and forecast Vulnerability Vulnerability Selected Indicators Selected Indicators variable variable Water quality Floods • Effect of climatic factors, such as temperature and rainfall, on the • Percent of very high& high hazard flooding events taking quality of water resources Sensitivity Sensitivity place in Cyprus • Reduction of the rate of aquifer replenishment • Overexploitation of aquifers due to water scarcity • Changes in heavy precipitation events Exposure • Areas with potential significant flood risk in Cyprus • Changes in air temperature • Changes in annual precipitation • Development of a separate drainage system for collecting • Changes in the length of drought periods stormwater Adaptive • Changes in heavy
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