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Impacts of Climate Change on European Islands

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Impacts of Climate Change on European Islands FIVE CASE STUDIES ON THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EUROPEAN ISLANDS Annex II to the Final Report ‘IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ALL EUROPEAN ISLANDS’ Prepared by: Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) 11 Belgrave Road IEEP Offices, Floor 3 London SW1V 1RB and 55 Quai au Foin / Hooikaai 55 1000 Brussels, Belgium 31 October 2013 Disclaimer: The arguments expressed in this report are solely those of the authors, and do not reflect the opinion of any other party. The report should be cited as follows: Sauter, R., ten Brink, P., Withana, S., Mazza, L., Pondichie, F., Lopes, A., Clinton, J, Bego K. (2013) Five case studies on the impacts of climate change on European islands, Annex II to the final report ‘Impacts of climate change on all European islands’ by the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) for the Greens/EFA of the European Parliament. Draft Final Report. Brussels. 2013. Acknowledgements: The authors would like to thank all experts that were available for an interview for this study. Institute for European Environmental Policy London Office 11 Belgrave Road IEEP Offices, Floor 3 London SW1V 1RB Tel: +44 (0) 20 7799 2244 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7799 2600 Brussels Office Quai au Foin, 55 Hooikaai 55 B- 1000 Brussels Tel: +32 (0) 2738 7482 Fax: +32 (0) 2732 4004 The Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) is an independent not-for-profit institute dedicated to advancing an environmentally sustainable Europe through policy analysis, development and dissemination. For further information see our website: http://www.ieep.eu. Contents 1 MACARONESIA ............................................................................................................. 5 1.1 Key features of the Macaronesian region ............................................................. 5 1.2 Most relevant climate trends ................................................................................ 7 1.2.1 Historical evidence ................................................................................................ 7 1.2.2 Projected climate trends ....................................................................................... 8 1.3 Consequences of climate change impacts on specific sectors ............................... 9 1.3.1 Biodiversity ......................................................................................................... 10 1.3.2 Agriculture .......................................................................................................... 12 1.3.3 Tourism ............................................................................................................... 12 1.3.4 Infrastructure ...................................................................................................... 13 1.4 Implications for trade, security and migration .................................................... 16 1.4.1 Trade ................................................................................................................... 16 1.4.2 Security ............................................................................................................... 17 1.4.3 Migration ............................................................................................................ 18 1.5 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 18 2 THE GREEK ISLANDS .................................................................................................... 19 2.1 Key features of the Greek Islands ....................................................................... 19 2.2 Most relevant climate trends .............................................................................. 21 2.2.1 Historical evidence .............................................................................................. 21 2.2.2 Projected climate trends ..................................................................................... 22 2.3 Consequences of climate change impacts on specific sectors ............................. 24 2.3.1 Agriculture .......................................................................................................... 25 2.3.2 Biodiversity – land and marine based ................................................................. 26 2.3.3 Tourism ............................................................................................................... 27 2.3.4 Infrastructure ...................................................................................................... 29 2.4 Implications for trade, security & migration ....................................................... 32 2.4.1 Trade ................................................................................................................... 32 2.4.2 Security ............................................................................................................... 33 2.4.3 Migration ............................................................................................................ 34 2.5 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 34 3 REUNION ISLAND ........................................................................................................ 36 3.1 Key features of Reunion Island ........................................................................... 36 3.2 Most relevant climate trends .............................................................................. 40 3.2.1 Historical evidence .............................................................................................. 40 3.2.2 Projected climate trends ..................................................................................... 41 3.3 Consequences of climate change impacts on specific sectors ............................. 42 3.3.1 Biodiversity – land and marine based ................................................................. 42 3.3.2 Agriculture .......................................................................................................... 44 3.4 Implications for trade, security and migration .................................................... 46 3.4.1 Trade ................................................................................................................... 46 3.4.2 Security ............................................................................................................... 47 3.4.3 Migration ............................................................................................................ 49 3.5 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 49 4 THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...................................................................................... 51 4.1 Key features of the Netherlands Antilles ............................................................ 51 4.2 Most relevant climate trends .............................................................................. 54 4.2.1 Historical evidence .............................................................................................. 54 4.2.2 Projected climate trends ..................................................................................... 54 4.3 Consequences of climate change impacts on specific sectors ............................. 54 4.3.1 Biodiversity ......................................................................................................... 55 4.3.2 Tourism ............................................................................................................... 56 4.3.3 Infrastructure ...................................................................................................... 57 4.4 Implications for trade, security and migration .................................................... 60 4.4.1 Trade ................................................................................................................... 60 4.4.2 Security ............................................................................................................... 60 4.4.3 Migration ............................................................................................................ 60 4.5 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 61 5 FRENCH POLYNESIA AND NEW CALEDONIA ................................................................ 62 5.1 Key features of French Polynesia and New Caledonia ........................................ 62 5.2 Most relevant climate trends .............................................................................. 65 5.2.1 Historical evidence .............................................................................................. 65 5.2.2 Projections .......................................................................................................... 66 5.2.3 Impacts of climate in the pacific region .............................................................. 66 5.3 Consequences of climate change impacts on Biodiversity .................................. 68 5.3.1 Marine biodiversity ............................................................................................. 68 5.3.2 Terrestrial biodiversity ........................................................................................ 69 5.4 Implications for trade, security and migration .................................................... 71 5.4.1
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