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Chapter 2: Structure of the Economy

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Chapter 2: Structure of the Economy 2 Structure of the economy This chapter focuses on the structure of the Icelandic economy, mainly with regard to size, composition of output and expenditure, and foreign investment. Different sectors of the economy are analysed, particularly to include recent developments and the contribution of each sector to GDP. Finally, the labour market and pension system in Iceland are discussed. The Icelandic economy displays the characteristics of an advanced economy, with high income levels and a relatively large services sector. Its distinguishing features are its large marine and energy sectors based on ample resources, a growing tourism sector, and a high labour partici- pation rate. Size and income level The Icelandic economy is the smallest within the OECD, generating GDP of 16.7 billion US dol- lars (2,205 b.kr) in 2015. This amounted to around 1/1000 of the US economy, 1/17 of the Danish economy, and a little over ¼ of the economy of Luxembourg, while it is more than 70% larger than the economy of Malta. The small size of the Icelandic economy mainly reflects the country’s small population, which was 332.5 thousand on 1 January 2016. According to World Bank data, Chart 2.2 Chart 2.1 Individual sectors' share in economic Gross national income per capita in contraction and recovery1 OECD countries1 % Luxembourg 15 Norway Switzerland United States Netherlands Germany Denmark 10 Austria Sweden Ireland Iceland Australia Belgium Canada 5 Finland United Kingdom France Japan Italy New Zealand Israel 0 South Korea Spain Slovenia Czech Republic Portugal Slovakia Estonia -5 Greece Poland Hungary Chile Turkey Mexico -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Manu- Con- Financial Other GDP facturing struction services private svc. USD thousands (17%)² (6%)³ (7%)4 (40%)5 2015 2010 Change from GDP trough in 2010 until 2015 2005 Change from pre-crisis peak to post-crisis trough 1. Based on PPP. 1. Each sector's contraction and recovery, weighted with its share in gross factor income during the relevant period (2015 share in parent- Source: Macrobond. heses). 2. Manufacturing, mining, utilities, and waste handling. 3. Building and construction. 4. Financial and insurance activities. 5. Wholesale, retail, transportation and storage, hotels and restaurants, IT and communications, real estate, and miscellaneous specialised services. Source: Statistics Iceland. Structure of the economy 13 ECONOMY OF ICELAND GNI per capita measured in terms of purchasing power parities (PPP) amounted to more than 46 thousand US dollars in 2015, the seventeenth-highest in the world and the eleventh-highest among the OECD countries. Iceland’s GNI per capita is lower than that in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden but higher than in Finland and above the EU average. Drivers of growth Historically, Iceland’s prosperity has been built largely on its comparative advantages in abundant marine and energy resources, with investment and services the main drivers of growth. In the few years prior to the financial crisis of 2008, the financial services and construction sectors were the main drivers of economic growth, and conversely, the contraction following the financial cri- sis was most pronounced within those sectors. After GDP growth resumed in 2010, however, the contribution from the services sector has been driven by the recovery of domestic demand and growth in tourism-related services, supported by a competitive real exchange rate, particularly in the early phase of the recovery (Chart 2.2). This is also reflected in national accounts expenditure figures, which show that services exports along with private consumption and business invest- ment have contributed the lion’s share of GDP growth during the recovery period. Composition of output and expenditure As in other developed economies, services form the bulk of economic activity, accounting for more than 70% of GDP in 2015. The marine sector accounted for 8.3% of GDP in 2015 and re- mains one of the most important sources of export revenues, although its relative weight in total export revenues has declined in recent years, as energy-intensive exports and tourism-related services have increased more rapidly. Manufacturing (excluding marine products) accounted for Chart 2.4 Exports of goods and services Chart 2.3 At constant average exchange rates, based Breakdown of GDP by sector 2015 on a trade-weighted basket of currencies 1.2% B.kr. 8.3% 800 9.7% 700 30.2% 600 5.5% 500 5.9% 400 300 12.9% 15.6% 200 10.8% 100 Financial, insurance, real estate, etc. Electricity and water supply 0 ‘80 ‘90 ‘95 ‘00 ‘05 ‘10 ‘15 Transport and communications Industry ‘85 Commerce Fishing and fish processing Marine exports Other goods exports Construction Agriculture Metals Tourism Other services Other manufactured goods Other services exports Source: Statistics Iceland. Source: Statistics Iceland. 14 Structure of the economy ECONOMY OF ICELAND roughly 12% of GDP in 2015, and construction accounted for nearly 6%. Financial services (other than insurance services and pension funds) accounted for an average of 6% of GDP in 2013-2015, considerably below the pre-crisis average of roughly 9%. From 2010, the beginning of the post-crisis economic recovery, until 2016, GDP grew by 14.2%, more than 2/3 of it due to growth in the services sector and another 2½ percentage points due to the recovery of the construction sector. Private consumption contributed, on average, about 52% of GDP in 2010-2015, and public consumption and gross fixed capital formation contributed 24% and 16%, respectively. After the crisis struck in 2008, the investment-to-GDP ratio fell well below the long-term average of 21% of GDP, but it has been rising in recent years and was just over 19% in 2015. The ratio of public consumption to GDP declined at the height of the pre-crisis boom, as private sector activity outpaced public sector activity. It rose just after the crisis, however, as the private sector contracted more than the public sector. Since 2011, the public consumption ratio has been on a declining path, as the economic recovery has been driven by exports and domestic private sector demand and growth in public final expenditure has been weak. Foreign trade Iceland is a fairly open economy, with imports and exports of goods and services amounting to 46% and 53% of GDP, respectively, in 2015. In the period 2000–2015, trade openness, meas- ured as the ratio of imports and exports of goods and services to GDP, averaged 86%, well above the OECD average. Although trade still involves a relatively large share of primary products and commodities, exports have diversified significantly since the beginning of the century. Certain factors restrict openness, however, such as geographic distance from major population centres, limited intra-industry and transit trade, and protection of domestic agriculture. Chart 2.5 Chart 2.6 Exports by type of goods 2015 Imports by type of goods 2015 Percentage of total exports Percentage of total imports 6% 13% 17% 22% 18% 18% 1% 13% 8% 6% 22% 17% 13% 8% 1% 6% 10% Marine products Other products Industrial products Other consumer goods Agricultural products Transportation Food and beverages Transportation Aluminium and ferrosilicon Travel Fuel Travel Other manufactured goods Other services sectors Capital goods Other services sectors Transport equipment Source: Statistics Iceland. Source: Statistics Iceland. Structure of the economy 15 ECONOMY OF ICELAND Chart 2.8 Chart 2.7 Composition of goods exports by product Currency area share in services exports 2015 categories 18% % of total 70 14% 11% 25% 60 50 11% 40 30 7% 20 6% 16% 5% 10 Euro area Saudi Arabia 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 US Norway Denmark Sweden Marine products Other industr. products1 UK Other Energy-intensive products Other Source: Statistics Iceland. 1. Manufacturing services are included under energy-intensive industrial goods as in Statistics Iceland's trade figures. Source: Statistics Iceland. Fish and other marine products have traditionally been the mainstay of goods exports, al- though they have been declining as a share of total exports since the early 1990s. In 2015, fish and other marine products accounted for 42% of goods exports and 22% of total exports, down from 63% and 41%, respectively, in 2000. Exports of manufactured goods have been growing rapidly in importance, led by aluminium smelting and medical and pharmaceutical products, and accounted for 53% of goods exports in 2015 (up from 31% in 2000) and 28% of total exports. Exports of services have also increased as the economy has grown and become increasingly service-oriented. Tourism has soared over the past few years and has been one of the main driv- ers of export growth, contributing over 50% of the growth during the post-crisis period. Services now account for 47% of total export revenues, up from 37% in 2000. Iceland imports a wide range of manufactured goods and commodities, reflecting both the small size of the economy and the limited range of natural resources. Imports of industrial sup- plies accounted for 28% of total goods imports and 18% of total imports in 2015. Capital goods constituted almost 21% of total goods imports and consumer goods 27% (13% and 17%, respectively, of total imports in 2015), while services contributed around 36% of total imports. Iceland’s ratio of services trade to total trade has risen in recent years. In 2015 it was 43%, one of the highest in the OECD, up from 34% at the beginning of the century. The euro is the most common currency used for services exports in Iceland, with 25% of total services exports. Besides the euro, only three currencies have a share of 10% or larger: the US dollar (18%) and the Danish krone and pound sterling, each with 11%.
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